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Wednesday 07th of December 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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28-NOV-2016 I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any circumstances through 2017
Africa


I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any circumstances through
2017. Traders can sell $60.00 strike call options with a 1 year
maturity [into a price rally] and pocket the premium.

read more













"We will stop racing to topple foreign regimes that we know nothing about, that we shouldn't be involved with," Trump said.
Law & Politics


"Instead, our focus must be on defeating terrorism and destroying
ISIS, and we will."

Conclusions


That would be revolutionary.

read more


Commentary: Trump's brave new world of Twitter diplomacy Reuters
Law & Politics


When it comes to managing relations with China, Donald Trump is
tearing up the rulebook. First by using Twitter to announce his
telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, and then in his
Sunday afternoon complaints over Beijing’s economic and military
policy.

Traditionally, the key events in something as strategically crucial as
Sino-U.S. relations are heavily discussed for hours, if not days, at
the highest ranks of government. The new president-elect, however,
shows every sign of being more spontaneous – and looks set to continue
to use his personal social media posts in a way that will terrify
foreign policy purists.

What we will shortly have in the Oval Office, however, is a
businessman - and perhaps more importantly, a reality TV and social
media star - whose arguably strongest skill set is in generating
controversy and attention. Take that habit too far, and you could
easily start a war.

In any future diplomatic spat or confrontation, even something on the
scale of the Cuban missile crisis, it is entirely possible that world
leaders may be tweeting at each other directly – with the rest of the
world, including their own diplomatic and military command chains,
forced to watch and play catch-up.

read more



Is Trump Calling Out Xi Jinping? Zerohedge
Law & Politics


According to The Washington Post, the phone call from Taiwan to Trump
was no chance happening. It had been planned for weeks. And people in
Trump’s inner circle are looking to closer ties to Taiwan and a
tougher policy toward Beijing.

This suggests that Trump was aware there might be a sharp retort from
Beijing, and that his tweets dismissing Chinese protests and doubling
down on the Taiwan issue were both considered and deliberate.

Well, the fat is in the fire now.

Across Asia, every capital is waiting to see how Xi Jinping responds,
for a matter of face would seem to be involved.

Conclusions

read more



14-NOV-2016 :: Here comes President Trump As Trump has indicated China is the main adversary
Law & Politics


As Trump has indicated China is the main adversary and its difficult
to understand why the US was seeking to send Vladimir into Xi
Jinping’s ready embrace. To triangulate China, the US needs Russia on
its side and not on China’s. Therefore, I see Trump playing a Ronald
Reagan Game.

read more





Putin's Russia seeks to project power with modern military @AP
Law & Politics


With an aircraft carrier deployed off Syria's shores and hundreds of
new jets, missiles and tanks entering service each year, President
Vladimir Putin can project Russian military power on a scale unseen
since Soviet times.

"The military reform has given Russia, the Kremlin (and) Mr. Putin a
usable instrument of foreign policy which Russia did not have for a
quarter century," said Dmitry Trenin , director of the Carnegie Moscow
Center think tank.

read more


The parabolic rebound of Vladimir Putin @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment,
President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded.

The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le
Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands,
is Vladimir Putin.

In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo,
and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as
well.

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.

Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one
of his short stories:

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual-paradigm officers
at Colorado Command:

“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”

“We copy. There’s a voice.”

“We have gross oscillation here.”

“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”

“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”

“Thank you, Colorado.”

“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”

“It was a voice,” I told them.

“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”

The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.

“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0722
Dollar Index 100.50
Japan Yen 114.16
Swiss Franc 1.0096
Pound 1.2662
Aussie 0.7429 JUST IN: Australia 3Q GDP much, much worse than
expected. Economy contracted 0.5% in 3Q (QoQ), +1.8% YoY (est. +2.2%)
David Ingles
India Rupee 67.865
South Korea Won 1167.80
Brazil Real 3.4082
Egypt Pound 17.9245
South Africa Rand 13.6739

read more








Cobalt is up roughly 40% since the end of February 2016 on the London Metals Exchange
Commodities


Cobalt is up roughly 40% since the end of February 2016 on the London
Metals Exchange, a clear sign that the most fundamental law of
economics is alive and well. As the supply drops and demand increases,
prices take off.

The quick update is more data that supports this thesis, and predicts
further increases in cobalt prices. Last week the Congo’s central bank
reported that, “Production of cobalt, the metal used in lithium-ion
batteries and of which Congo is the world’s leading producer, slipped
0.8 percent to 21,493 tonnes in the third quarter and is down 9
percent so far this year”.

The global production of cobalt is a fragile 100,000 tonnes a year. So
if the Congo produces roughly 55% of the world’s cobalt, and
production there is down 9% this year so far, that means the world
lost roughly 5,000 tonnes of supply.

read more




One of many houses marked with the word "Tutsi" stands in a deserted village in eastern Rwanda @ 1994 Corinne Dufka
Africa


One of many houses marked with the word “Tutsi” stands in a deserted
village in eastern Rwanda, just a few kilometers from a church in
which more than 1,000 people were massacred by Hutu militiamen during
the genocide in 1994. © 1994 Corinne Dufka

read more


Angolans prepare for life after dos Santos @FT Subscriber
Africa


More than two-thirds of Angolans have never known another president.
As José Eduardo dos Santos prepares to relinquish the tight grip on
power he has held since 1979, the choice of his successor reveals much
about where authority lies in the oil-rich southern African nation.

The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has
governed the country since independence from Portugal more than 40
years ago, on Friday picked João Lourenço, defence minister and a
party loyalist, as its top candidate for August’s elections — meaning
Mr dos Santos’s name will not be on the list.

The 74-year-old president, Africa’s second-longest serving leader, has
feigned retirement before. But with rumours persisting over his
health, the MPLA appears to have moved decisively to ensure succession
on its terms.

“There’s no contradiction between saying [Mr dos Santos] is an
extremely powerful president and acknowledging there is such a thing
as the MPLA,” said Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, an Oxford professor and
the author of a recent study of postwar Angola.

Mr dos Santos has been accused by critics of overseeing the transfer
of Angola’s vast oil wealth to a politically connected elite and of
ruthlessly suppressing dissent.

Many had always assumed that a handover of power by such a guarded
leader, who centralised control while overseeing the rise of one of
Africa’s biggest oil producers, would involve one of his children. His
daughter, Isabel dos Santos, head of the state oil company, is often
described as Africa’s richest woman.

They may have underestimated both the MPLA’s will to endure beyond Mr
dos Santos and that, 14 years after the end of Angola’s bloody civil
war, there are limits to autocracy.

Alex Vines, Africa director at Chatham House think-tank, says that
while Mr dos Santos considered keeping the succession in the family,
“politics inside Angola meant it wasn’t really an option”.

Indeed, the choice of successor underlines how the MPLA is reasserting
itself. Mr Lourenço showed presidential ambitions 14 years ago, during
what is seen as a ploy by Mr dos Santos to identify rivals by claiming
he was tired of rule.

After the next decade in the political wilderness, the husband of a
World Bank technocrat re-emerged in 2014 as defence minister,
providing a critical link between party and army.

Above all, Mr Lourenço is an MPLA stalwart. His selection by the
party’s ruling central committee signalled its growing authority after
years of rubber-stamping Mr dos Santos’s decisions. Having been in
power since 1979, Mr dos Santos has built a considerable power base.

Isabel dos Santos was born outside Angola, and so could not run for
president unless her father persuaded his party to change the
constitution. Instead, she was placed at the helm of Sonangol, the
state oil company whose inefficiency has been laid bare by the slump
in oil prices. Her brother, José Filomeno dos Santos, has managed
Angola’s sovereign wealth fund since 2013.

Yet their father leaves behind a country with thousands of
millionaires but with more than a third of its 25m people living below
the poverty line.

Angola has the world’s highest child-mortality rate but also Africa’s
third-largest oil reserves and its third-biggest banking system —
based in the skyscrapers of the capital, Luanda. It is now in trouble,
choked by a shortage of US dollars that stems from lower oil prices
that have also brought on a deep economic crisis.

The crisis is unlikely to have finally forced the hand of one of
Africa’s shrewdest autocrats, who was born in the squalor of colonial
Luanda’s slums, across town from his opulent future presidential
palace.

But it now appears significant that Mr dos Santos did not fly to
Havana last week for the funeral of his old comrade Fidel Castro —
especially as one in 20 Cubans alive today fought in Angola between
1979 and 1991, to defend the MPLA from threats that included a South
African invasion.

For Mr Lourenço, he would lead the MPLA into the 2017 election against
an opposition, including Unita, the party’s old civil-war foe, that is
brittle and unable to match the ruling party in organising across the
country.

But the party, long shorn of ideology and relentlessly pragmatic, may
opt to put much-needed reform on the backburner. Mr Lourenço also
faces the problem of how to redistribute patronage around the elite
with less money in state coffers than before.

“The regime will stay in power but it will have to cajole, coerce and
co-opt more than it has had to in the past,” says Oxford university’s
Mr Soares de Oliveira. “They may limp along with oil-backed loans from
now till the 2017 elections. The question is, what happens in 2018?
Where is this country going fiscally? How will it pay its bills?”

read more


Exiled opposition leader demands Congo's Joseph Kabila stand down FT Subscriber
Africa


Congolese opposition leader Moise Katumbi has promised to return home
from self-imposed exile and risk arrest if President Joseph Kabila
refuses to leave office when his term ends this month.

Mr Kabila’s second and final term as president of the Democratic
Republic of Congo is due to end on December 19. But his government
failed to arrange elections in time and the supreme court has said he
can remain in office until the next polls, which might not be until
mid-2018. A group of Congolese bishops is seeking to broker a deal
that would facilitate Mr Kabila’s leaving office but his ruling
coalition has already branded their efforts a “failure”.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Katumbi — the most popular
politician in the DRC, according to an opinion poll — said he would
return if the talks collapsed. “I’m going to be on the side of the
people,” he said from Washington. “This country doesn’t belong to one
person. There’s a time to come and a time to go.”

Some small opposition parties have joined a newly formed interim
government, but the main opposition groups accuse Mr Kabila, who
became president in 2001 after his father was assassinated, of trying
to cling to power. They are demanding that a new leader runs the
country until elections and have promised huge protests if he stays in
office.

Mr Katumbi left the DRC in May to seek medical treatment shortly after
being accused of hiring mercenaries. Soon after he was convicted in
absentia of illegally selling a house that did not belong to him and
sentenced to three years in jail.

Then in July the judge in that case said she had been pressurised by
the intelligence services to convict the businessman, whose popularity
stems in part from his ownership of TP Mazembe, the country’s biggest
football team.

The intelligence services denied the allegation by the judge, who went
into hiding.

Mr Katumbi, who was previously governor of Katanga province, said he
did not fear arrest or worse. “I’m not afraid because Mr Kabila’s
already killed so many,” he said, referring to people killed in
protests, particularly the several dozen killed in the capital,
Kinshasa, in September.

In an attempt to encourage Mr Kabila to leave, Mr Katumbi said he
would not lobby for the president to be tried for any alleged abuse of
office. “No one needs to arrest or prosecute the president if
everything is done according to the constitution,” he said. “What’s
important is to have free and fair elections.”

Analysts are uncertain whether Mr Katumbi, who has previously failed
to keep promises to return to the DRC, would really end his exile.
“Diplomats are tired of hearing he’s almost about to go back,” said
Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at New York
University. “He doesn’t have a political structure [in DRC] but he has
his reputation, which is considerable, and his money.

International concern over the escalating crisis in the DRC was
demonstrated this week when the UN Security Council issued a statement
calling on authorities in the country to “respect human rights and
fundamental freedoms, especially the right of peaceful assembly, and
to exercise maximum restraint in their response to protests”. It also
urged the opposition “to show responsibility” by demonstrating
peacefully.

Conclusions

read more





Mugabe praises resilient Zimbabweans, skirts bond notes Reuters
Africa


Africa's oldest leader, now aged 92, stumbled through a 30-minute
State of the Nation speech in parliament that lavished praise on the
security forces for maintaining "the peaceful environment that we
have".

"Let me conclude by paying tribute to our peace-loving people who have
endured all manner of economic hardships since we embarked on the
historic land-reform programme," Mugabe said to grumbles from
opposition benches and shouts of "bond notes".

read more


GDP expanded by only 0.2 percent in the period between July to September compared with a revised 3.5 percent in the second quarter, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday.
Africa


The meagre growth in the quarter was led by a 3.2 percent decline in
the manufacturing sector, followed by a 2.8 percent decline in the
electricity sector and a 2.1 percent contraction in trade and
accommodation.

"The decline in manufacturing is very concerning," chief economist at
Nedbank Nicky Weimar said.

Manufacturing now accounts for only 13 percent of the economy, down
from around 25 percent two decades ago.

read more



Egypt, China sign currency swap deal worth 2.62 ban USD XINHUA
Africa


Egypt and China on Tuesday signed a currency swap agreement worth 18
billion yuan (about 2.62 billion U.S. dollars) to bolster economic
activities in the north African country.

The deal, signed between the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and the
People's Bank of China, will last three years and can be extended upon
agreement of both sides, CBE said in a statement.

"The currency swap is a mutually beneficial arrangement between both
countries, and mirrored China's support for the Egyptian economic
reform program," it added.

read more


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9245
Africa


President Buhari and Prof. Wole Soyinka @MobilePunch

https://twitter.com/MobilePunch/status/806139818036051968

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.37% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

I took a bunch of pictures in Accra yesterday but this is my
favorite. Many peoples, one nation. #GhanaDecides #GhanaElections
#GhElections Matthew Adeiza

https://twitter.com/ohimatt/status/806049046359986176

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -22.58% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Jamii Bora Bank Limited (JBBL), has received a Sh600 million capital injection from Chicago-based private equity fund Equator Capital Partners LLC
Kenyan Economy


The investment will see ShoreCap II become a significant shareholder
of the bank with a stake of more than 15 per cent.

“We are excited to have Equator Capital Partners as a strategic
partner and significant shareholder of the bank.

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.005
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -7.23% 2016 [9 week Low]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -20.92% 2016 [10 week Low]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,195.42 -34.58 -1.07%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


After the disjunctive Outcome in Gambia where Adama Barrow ousted an
Incumbent of 22 years the idiosyncratic and eccentric President Yahya
Jammeh, all eyes now turn to Ghana where a closely run election is
anticipated. Ghana was the fastest growing Economy in Africa in 2011
when the Economy expanded a mouth-watering 14%. Gains were not banked
and in fact frittered away and the IMF is currently providing support.
A positive Election in Ghana would certainly give legs to some of the
more hyperbolic post-Gambia comments

Jeffrey Smith, a  founding director of Vanguard Africa, a US-based
group which worked with the opposition coalition, said that if Mr
Jammeh “can be defeated at the ballot box ... then anyone can”.

“This is going to have resonance way beyond the tiny borders of
Gambia,” he said, describing the result as “a momentous occasion for
the region writ large”.

The Nairobi All Share closed -0.50 points at 134.67 a fresh 9 week closing Low.
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated -13.94 points to close at 3181.48 a 10 week low.
Volume continues to whimper and clocked 267.10m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Eaagads [which is the only coffee Pure-play at the Securities
Exchange] was high ticked +9.3% to close at 19.40.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom ticked -0.505% lower to close at 19.70 and traded 3.5m
shares. Buy on reverses which will be shallow ahead of a very strong
showing in January as Global Investors reach for Safaricom's
outstanding cash generation in the new year.

Nation Media faded -0.55% lower to close at a fresh multi year Low of
90.00 and traded 26,800 shares. Nation Media has slumped -46.33% on a
Total Return basis and currently trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of
7.62.
Standard Group which self-evidently operates in a similar Media space
did not trade and is -40.00% on a Total Return Basis.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


I&M Bank was the most actively traded bank stock and closed unchanged
at 90.00 where 160,400 shares worth 14.436m were traded. I&M Bank is
-6.5% in 2016 and the 2nd best performer in the Banking Segment
through 2016.
KCB Group rallied +1.78% to close at 28.50 and was trading at 29.75
+6.25% and just shy of session highs at the finish line. KCB traded
237,700 shares and had Buyers for 4x the volume traded, signalling the
bias is higher.

Jubilee Insurance rallied +2.087% to close at an 18 week high go
489.00. Jubilee traded just 1,800 shares. Jubilee is +2.78% on a Total
Return Basis in 2016 and has outperformed its peers by a wide margin.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Mumias Sugar closed unchanged at 1.30 but was trading 6 month intra
days highs of 1.40 +7.69% at the close. Buyers outpaced Sellers by x 4
and Mumias Sugar which is +18.181% over the last 4 weeks has further
to run on this rebound.

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Exchange today and
closed -1.229% lower at 241.00 and traded 552,500 shares worth
133.677m. EABL has seen Sell-side Supply pressure and is oversold at
-13.62% over 4 weeks.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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