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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 13th of December 2016

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05-DEC-2016 Putin's Parabolic rebound

Home Thoughts

“Artists to my mind are the real architects of change & not the
political legislators who implement change after the fact” William

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William Burroughs in Paris @ipnotic Dec 6

“Language is a virus from outer space” William Burroughs

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William Burroughs on how our #dreams prepare us for space travel.

Burroughs was the perfect incarnation of late 20th-century western
angst precisely because he was an addict. Self-deluding, vain,
narcissistic, self-obsessed, and yet curiously perceptive about the
sickness of the world if not his own malaise, Burroughs both offered
up and was compelled to provide his psyche as a form of Petri dish,
within which were cultured the obsessive and compulsive viruses of

His descriptions of the "junk territories" his alter ego inhabits are,
in fact, depictions of urban alienation itself. And just as in these
areas junk is "a ghost in daylight on a crowded street", so his junkie
characters - who are invariably described as "invisible",
"dematerialized" and "boneless" - are, like the pseudonymous "William
Lee" himself, the sentient residue left behind when the soul has been
cooked up and injected into space.

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12-DEC-2016 After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring? via @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

In 2014, I recall a certain Martin Aglo, who on the occasion of the
termination of Beautiful Blaise Campaore in the streets of
Ouagadougou, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black

You will recall that US President Barrack Obama came all the way to
the African Union headquarters on July 28, 2015 and said: ‘’When I
first came to sub-Saharan Africa as a president, I said that Africa
doesn’t need strongmen, it needs strong institutions. I believe
Africa’s progress will also depend on democracy, because Africans,
like people everywhere, deserve the dignity of being in control of
their own lives. I have to also say that Africa’s democratic progress
is also at risk when leaders refuse to step aside when their terms end
(applause). Now, let me be honest with you – I do not understand this
(laughter). I am in my second term. It has been an extraordinary
privilege for me to serve as President of the United States. I cannot
imagine a greater honour or a more interesting job. I love my work.
But under our Constitution, I cannot run again (laughter and
applause). I can’t run again. I actually think I’m a pretty good
President – I think if I ran I could win (laughter and applause.) But
I can’t.’’

Of course, most African strong-men cheered Donald Trump’s election to
the rafters. Africa is a very non-linear place but recent elections
from President Buhari of Nigeria through president-elect Barrow in the
Gambia through president-elect Akufo-Addo of Ghana (pictured below) is
surely signalling a trend-change is at hand.

You might turn around and ask: What about the DRC where a President
with less than 10% national support is manoeuvring to hold on?
Burundi? Ethiopia? Zimbabwe? Equatorial Guinea? and too many more to

The big picture point is in fact a demographic one. Many commentators
define the African population surge as a ‘’dividend’’ but what is
clear is that if it is allowed a Free and Fair vote its going be a
Terminator for a whole number of regimes. The demographic bulge is now
arriving at voting age. This is that moment, its importance cannot be

These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can an incumbent Regime
shoot stone cold dead – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point:
there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that
threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

So now when you look around, you should consider that the
Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is
hanging on by his finger-tips. The Ethiopian Government needs to
re-invent itself as a National movement/Party and do it now. Geriatric
Government from Harare to Equatorial Guinea might not move aside
easily but make no mistake its in the departure lounge and the open
question is will it leave first class, coach or be placed in shackles
and placed at the back of the plane like our People are when they are
sent back from Europe because they have entered illegally.

Nic Cheeseman, an expert in African politics at Oxford University,
said that ‘’autocratic leaders were facing a new and dynamic
opposition, and intensifying efforts to cling to power.’’

“There will be more repression in the short term and it will look
worse. But I am positive about democracy in Africa in the long run …
Social and economic change will drive democratisation over 30 years.
But there is a barrier of pain we will have to go through to get
there,” he said. Make no mistake about the direction of travel and
things could speed up.

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Has Africa had its fill of 'strongmen'?
Law & Politics

“It is difficult to overstate the significance of this announcement.
It is almost impossible to imagine what [Angola] looks like without
[Dos Santos] at the helm,” wrote Simon Allison, an analyst and
journalist, for the Institute for Security Studies, in South Africa.

For those who watch the ups and downs of democracy in Africa, recent
weeks have been eventful. Ten days ago Yahya Jammeh, authoritarian
ruler of the Gambia, accepted electoral defeat. His decision stunned
onlookers, who had expected Jammeh, who seized power in a coup 22
years ago, to reject the result. Then, on Friday evening, he did just
that, and soldiers deployed onto the streets of Banjul, the capital.

In South Africa, one of the most robust democracies on the continent,
President Jacob Zuma narrowly missed being ousted as leader of the
ruling African National Congress.

Last week in Ghana, considered a beacon of democracy in Africa,
closely contested elections ended in a tense standoff and eventual
defeat for President John Mahama.

Nor is the frenetic tempo of politics likely to slow soon. Somalia is
electing a new president in what everyone admits are deeply flawed
polls, while the second-term mandate of Joseph Kabila, who has run the
Democratic Republic of the Congo since the assassination of his father
in 2001, expires in just over a week. Kabila, 45, doesn’t look likely
to relinquish power without a struggle, and is trying to push back
elections to 2018 at the earliest. Widespread protests are expected –
and violence.Next year will see a new crop of polls, with
demonstrations, riots, crackdowns, celebrations and upsets. Amid the
tumult on a vast, varied continent, is any broader pattern

“#DoSantos (after 38 years in power) goes, the ruling #MPLA (after 42
years) stays. What change do we foresee in #Angola?” Rafael Marques,
an award-winning local journalist and writer, tweeted shortly after
the news of the Angolan leader’s decision not to run next year was
made public. “Angolans will move from one dictator to the next,”
Marques told AFP news agency. “Change is not coming tomorrow.”

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November 2014 "After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring".
Law & Politics

Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab
Spring, this is the Black Spring”.

During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all
commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap
the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the
State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would
bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per
cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank,
and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their
muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very
connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a
‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a
demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium
between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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Russian manual called Information-Psychological War Operations: A Short Encyclopedia and Reference Guide
Law & Politics

Late last year, I came across a Russian manual called
Information-Psychological War Operations: A Short Encyclopedia and
Reference Guide (The 2011 edition, credited to Veprintsev et al, and
published in Moscow by Hotline-Telecom, can be purchased online at the
sale price of 348 roubles). The book is designed for “students,
political technologists, state security services and civil servants” –
a kind of user’s manual for junior information warriors. The
deployment of information weapons, it suggests, “acts like an
invisible radiation” upon its targets: “The population doesn’t even
feel it is being acted upon. So the state doesn’t switch on its
self-defence mechanisms.” If regular war is about actual guns and
missiles, the encyclopedia continues, “information war is supple, you
can never predict the angle or instruments of an attack”.

The 495-page encyclopedia contained an introduction to
information-psychological war, a glossary of key terms and detailed
flowcharts describing the methods and strategies of defensive and
offensive operations, including “operational deception” (maskirovka),
“programmatical-mathematical influence”, “disinformation”,
“imitation”, and “TV and radio broadcasting”. In “normal war” the
encyclopedia explains, “victory is a case of yes or no; in information
war it can be partial. Several rivals can fight over certain themes
within a person’s consciousness.”

I had always imagined the phrase “information war” to refer to some
sort of geopolitical debate, with Russian propagandists on one side
and western propagandists on the other, both trying to convince
everyone in the middle that their side was right. But the encyclopedia
suggested something more expansive: information war was less about
methods of persuasion and more about “influencing social relations”
and “control over the sources of strategic reserves”. Invisible
weapons acting like radiation to override biological responses and
seize strategic reserves? The text seemed more like garbled science
fiction than a guide for students and civil servants.

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Putin's Rasputin Peter Pomerantsev @lrb
Law & Politics

Putin’s chief ideologue and grey cardinal, Vladislav Surkov, the
‘Kremlin demiurge’. Known also as the ‘puppetmaster who privatised the
Russian political system’, Surkov is the real genius of the Putin era.
Understand him and you understand not only contemporary Russia but a
new type of power politics, a breed of authoritarianism far subtler
than the 20th-century strains.

There is something cherubic in Surkov’s soft, smooth face, something
demonic in his stare. He trained as a theatre director then became a
PR man; now his official role is ‘vice-head of the presidential
administration’, but his influence over Russian politics is
unsurpassed. He is the man behind the concept of ‘sovereign
democracy’, in which democratic institutions are maintained without
any democratic freedoms, the man who has turned television into a
kitsch Putin-worshipping propaganda machine and launched pro-Kremlin
youth groups happy to compare themselves to the Hitler Youth, to beat
up foreigners and opposition journalists, and burn ‘unpatriotic’ books
on Red Square. But this is only half the story.

In his spare time Surkov writes essays on conceptual art and lyrics
for rock groups. He’s an aficionado of gangsta rap: there’s a picture
of Tupac on his desk, next to the picture of Putin. And he is the
alleged author of a bestselling novel, Almost Zero. ‘Alleged’ because
the novel was published (in 2009) under the pseudonym Natan Dubovitsky
– Surkov’s wife is called Natalya Dubovitskaya. Officially Surkov is
the author of the preface, where he denies being the author of the
novel, then makes a point of contradicting himself: ‘The author of
this novel is an unoriginal Hamlet-obsessed hack’; later, ‘this is the
best book I have ever read.’ In interviews he has come close to
admitting to being the author while always pulling back from a
complete confession. Whether or not he actually wrote every word of it
he has gone out of his way to associate himself with it.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0632
Dollar Index 100.99
Japan Yen 115.13
Swiss Franc 1.0138
Pound 1.2671
Aussie 0.7492
India Rupee 67.465
South Korea Won 1166.93
Brazil Real 3.3385
Egypt Pound 18.1985
South Africa Rand 13.6247

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Dollar Yen via @auaurelija 115.13 [Looking overextended short term]
World Currencies

I see the USDJPY downside as a good bet – first to 112, but then
possibly to below 110 within weeks (against the 117.50). Most “fair
value” indicators for the USD/JPY still suggest a value closer to 100.
says @auaurelija

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Kabila's impasse by JASON K STEARNS

There is a nervous crescendo building up on the streets of Kinshasa
ahead of December 19, the day President Joseph Kabila is supposed to
step down. Diplomats are sending their families on early Christmas
vacations and the Congolese franc has depreciated by about 25 per cent
against the US dollar. On social media and even in the streets, signs
of “Bye Bye Kabila” and “Eloko Nini Esilaka Te?” (What thing never
ends?) denounce what is increasingly looking like a power grab:
Although scheduled to leave office after 15 years at the helm, Kabila
and his administration have created artificial delays in the electoral
process, making it impossible to hold presidential elections on time.
Public protest in response to these delays has been suppressed often
violently. In September, police and presidential guards cracked down
on protests in the poor northwestern neighborhoods of Limete, Masina,
and Matete, with tear gas and live bullets, killing at least 53.

It would be easy to look at the streets of Kinshasa and think that
we’ve seen this before: A president clinging to power, restive and
frustrated youth, streets barricaded with burning tires, and abusive
soldiers cuffing, beating, and taking what they want. The Congo is a
generous purveyor of African stereotypes, often making it difficult to
see the politics through the thickets of hyperbole.

At the core of the impasse is the political future of Kabila.
Parachuted into power following his father Laurent’s assassination in
January 2001, Kabila cuts an enigmatic figure. A reclusive president
who dislikes the public stage, he presided over the reunification of
the country after the war and has overseen an average GDP growth of
more than 6% since 2010. Notwithstanding, he has done little to reform
an abusive state apparatus or spread economic growth – which is
largely driven by industrial mining – more evenly.

Only 45 years old, Kabila now faces an extremely uncertain political
future. At times over the past two years, various members of his inner
circle have floated the idea of changing the constitution to allow him
to run for a third term; after all, this is what Presidents Denis
Sassou Nguesso and Paul Kagame did last year, and what Yoweri
Museveni, Sam Nujoma, and Paul Biya did in years past. These ideas
have been met with fierce opposition from the Catholic Church, the
international community, and civil society. In a nationwide opinion
poll conducted jointly by the Congo Research Group, where I work, and
the Congolese polling firm BERCI, 81% of respondents said they were
against a constitutional revision. Kabila seems to have abandoned this
approach for now.

Advisors say that he is worried that if he names someone, his coterie
will erupt in infighting. In our poll, when asked whom they would vote
for if elections were held this year, only 7.8% named Kabila.  And
only 17.5% said they would vote for an individual who is currently in
the ruling coalition.

This leaves Kabila dead-ended. Unable to change the constitution and
lacking a dauphin, he is forced to play for time – a strategy known as
glissement (slippage).

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Congo's President Kabila 'Invents' New Way Of Clinging To Power - The Do Nothing Method

TO cling to power, African presidents have broadly done one of or a
mix of the following three things: amend constitutions to remove term
age or term limits; hold elections and steal them; or lose an election
as President Yahya Jammeh just did in The Gambia, and reject the

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila has shaken
up the scene, and introduced a fourth way – staying in power through
masterly inactivity. It’s the “do nothing” method.

Kabila’s full second term as DRC president runs out on December 20,
and the opposition is demanding he step down the day before.

Kabila, on the other hand, insists that the constitution allows him to
remain in office until elections have been held and a successor is
ready to take office. The big problem: elections have been repeatedly
delayed as nearly everything needed to hold them have not been

The previous constitutional deadline for the calling of elections,
19-20 September, saw protests that led to scores of deaths. There is
little trust for Kabila in Kinshasa, with April 2018 now being talked
about for elections and fears the president might try to change the
constitution before then to maintain his grip on power.

Time will tell if the people of DRC are prepared to wait up to April,
or if Kabila can stay in power even longer by doing nothing.

If he does pull it off, he might encourage other leaders with
president-for-life ambitions to try his method.

Amending constitutions or rigging elections can be messy and
dangerous, provoking protests, international condemnation, and leaves
a trail of undemocratic evidence.

Masterly inactivity too provokes protests and anger, but it is the
closest in politics to a victimless crime – like trespassing. And
incumbents like Kabila can also benefit from the fact that it causes a
lot of confusion, because the language for describing it and the
slogans for mobilising against it are still in infancy.

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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1985

Kenneth Roth ‏@KenRoth  When Boko Haram sends mere girls (7 & 8) as
suicide bombers, don't say they "blew themselves up." They were


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.86% 2016


Seriously articulate nuanced and intelligent intervention @NAkufoAddo
on @BBCAfrica #BBCNEWSDAY @bbcBola #GhanaDecides


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -21.21% 2016


Mozambique's consumer inflation edged up to 26.83 percent year-on-year
in November from 25.53 percent in October, data from the statistics
agency showed on Monday.


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Fishing Boats from 'Ematum' and 8 speedboats, belonging to Mozambican state company 'Proindicus' are seen on a quay at the Maputo Harbour in Maputo Photographer: Stringer/AFP via Getty Images

“There was investor exuberance in the market about Africa as the next
frontier three years ago,” Salazar said in an interview in London on
Dec. 9. “Especially given the favorable debt positions of many of
these countries.”

Yields on the January 2023 bonds soared by more than 900 basis points
to exceed 25 percent in November. The notes yielded 22.13 percent on

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Uhuru Accuses Foreign Countries of Trying to Influence 2017 Elections in Jamhuri Day Speech
Kenyan Economy

President Uhuru Kenyatta on Monday announced that there was a plan by
international communities to influence the outcome of the 2017 General

Speaking during the 53rd Jamhuri Day Celebrations, Kenyatta firmly
stated that Kenya would not allow foreign countries to interfere with
upcoming polls.

''There is already money coming into Kenya from abroad in the guise of
supporting good governance or civic education. However, its true
intention is to influence our electoral choices.

''I want to caution those members of the International Community
taking these actions that the Kenyan people do not look kindly on such
actions. I urge all Kenyans to reject such interference. This is our
country, and no one should ever try and control our choices for their
selfish interests,'' Kenyatta stated.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.995
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -9.23% 2016


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -21.82% 2016


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share eased -0.38 points to close at 131.87 a three month Low.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index edged -3.32 points lower to close at 3,155.57,
a 14 week low.
Equity Turnover clocked 570.65m.
The Bourse has been on a bear run of late.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Eaagads rallied +5.26% to close at 21.00 and traded 1,900 shares.

Sasini Tea announced last Friday on plans to develop a KES 400m
macadamia factory as part of its diversification strategy. The plant
will be set up on a 20-acre farm next to its coffee mills in Kiambu
County. Sasini Tea and Coffee ticked +0.833% higher to close at 18.15
with 9,300 shares changing hands.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

TPS Serena finally got some upside price action going and rallied
+6.49% to close at 20.50 and traded 40,300 shares.

Nation Media Group fell 1.12% to close at a fresh 5 Year Low of 87.50
and traded 24,900 shares.
Standard Group slumped -8.83% to close at a 2016 Low of 18.05.
The Media Sector has been violently brutalised in 2016, from a share
price perspective.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

COOP Bank rallied +1.872% to close at 13.60 and was well traded with
4.305m shares changing hands. COOP Bank is -20.00% on a Total Return
Basis through 2016.
Equity Group closed unchanged at 30.00 and traded 4.544m shares worth 136.35m.

A court Battle over a Former Housing Finance Company (HFC) director
Kevin Isika’s wrongful termination suit has placed HFC in the

“The bank has been reporting a non-performing loans figure of Sh5
billion. However, the real position is that non-performing loans are
Sh9.3 billion, almost double the published amounts. This information
was notified to the managing director (Mr Waweru) and the group
managing director (Mr Ireri) via several emails starting from December
2015,” Mr Isika says in correspondences filed in court. The Bank is
rigorously contesting this. HFC eased -2.713% to close at 12.55 and
traded 35,300 shares.

National Bank slumped -7.23% to close at 7.05 and traded 53,600
shares. National Bank has slumped -54.9% in 2016.

The Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) of Kenya published its 3Q16
industry report. Insurers reported a 47.7% increase in PAT in the nine
months to September 2016, mainly attributed to investment income from
long-term business (life insurance). The profit after tax for the
insurance sector stood at KES 6.5bn, up from KES 4.4bn in 3Q15, the
key driver was the life insurance segment which grew by 4x y/y to KES
3.8bn, while general business profit after tax declined to KES 2.7bn
(-25% y/y). Insurance premiums during the quarter increased by 7.3%
y/y compared to 12.8% recorded in 3Q15. Total industry premiums rose
to KES 144.8bn, with KES 93.1bn (+6.0% y/y) for the general insurance
and KES 51.7bn (+9.6% y/y) for life insurance. More than half (23 out
of 37) of the general insurers reported a loss for the period, while
only 8 out of 26 life insurers recorded a loss, of which Britam was
the most profitable life insurer at KES 2.9bn, it was followed by
Jubilee at KES 1.0bn.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Mumias Sugar's AGM turned chaotic as shareholders demanded the removal
of the entire board and clearly this was not an unreasonable request.
Mumias Sugar closed +3.85% at 1.35.

Kenya Power has Sh322.4 million locked up at the collapsed Imperial
Bank, the electricity distributor has disclosed.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2016

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