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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 16th of December 2016

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Macro Thoughts

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party

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Nyama Choma a la Chef @ckfoot

We had a seriously good evening last night at Mr. Chris Foot's. I have
been struggling to wake up in the morning and I said to Nishet this
morning its all that Mull Wine I have been quaffing of late. I thank
Mr. and Mrs. Foot for a lovely evening. Lots of characters as you
would expect. Had a hilarious conversation with a scion of one of the
older Families here in Nairobi and he was describing a [now elderly]
shareholder at one of the Banks who is inspecting the balance sheet of
the Bank in which he is invested and says to the Board - This Fellow T
Bills Good Grief he has billions. Got to invite him for lunch. I
thought that was good. We sang Carols - well i did not because I am
allowed to recuse myself on the basis that I sang hymns in Westminster
Abbey age 13-18 and this time I wandered around the Abbey and kind of
lost myself in my childhood, for a little while.

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U.S. intelligence officials now believe with "a high level of confidence" that Russian President Vladimir Putin became personally involved in the covert Russian campaign
Law & Politics

U.S. intelligence officials now believe with "a high level of
confidence" that Russian President Vladimir Putin became personally
involved in the covert Russian campaign to interfere in the U.S.
presidential election

Their use of the term "high confidence" implies that the intelligence
is nearly incontrovertible.

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President Barack Obama has vowed to take action against Russia for its apparent interference in the US presidential election
Law & Politics

“I think there is no doubt that when any foreign government tries to
impact the integrity of our elections that we need to take action and
we will at a time and place of our own choosing,” Mr Obama told
National Public Radio.

He said he had spoken to Russian president Vladimir Putin about the
hacking, and said his counterpart was aware that the US would seek
retaliatory action, some of it "explicit and publicised; some of it
may not be”.

Trump 'obviously aware' Russia behind election hacks, White House says

“Mr Putin is well aware of my feelings about this, because I spoke to
him directly about it,” Mr Obama said.

Mr Obama last spoke directly with Mr Putin at the G20 meeting in China.

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05-DEC-2016 :: The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, "a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy".
Law & Politics

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy.  There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“ There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“ Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal.  e first thing is plausible
deniability (and some folks here at home need to remember those
The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
When you launch a social media campaign where a 100 bots repeat the
same thing verbatim, like Mombasa did last week, then your very
linearity is a monumental ‘’look its me’’ sign.

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I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. @billclinton
Law & Politics

I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I
never told anybody to lie, not a single time; never. These allegations
are false. And I need to go back to work for the American people.
Thank you

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0438
Dollar Index 102.99
Japan Yen 118.29
Swiss Franc 1.0282
Pound 1.2441
Aussie 0.7346
India Rupee 67.815
South Korea Won 1185.84
Brazil Real 3.3700
Egypt Pound 18.4290
South Africa Rand 13.9469

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28-NOV-2016 I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any circumstances through 2017.

I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any circumstances through
2017. Traders can sell $60.00 strike call options with a 1 year
maturity [into a price rally] and pocket the premium.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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With His Family's Fortune at Stake, President Kabila Digs In @bbgafrica

In his only public speech this year, Joseph Kabila, president of the
Democratic Republic of Congo, was defiant about his refusal to hand
over power when his final term ends on Dec. 19. “I cannot allow the
republic to be taken hostage by a fringe of the political class,” he
told parliament last month as members cheered.

His presidency had brought peace and economic growth to Congo, the
45-year-old said, outlining reforms he’d made in telecommunications,
mining, energy and banking. What he didn’t say is how some of his own
family members are among the biggest beneficiaries of those
changes—including his sister Jaynet and brother Zoe, who both listened
from the front row as elected members of parliament.

Together the Kabilas have built a network of businesses that reaches
into every corner of Congo’s economy and has brought hundreds of
millions of dollars to the family, a Bloomberg News investigation has
found. The sprawling network may help explain why the president is
ignoring pleas by the U.S., the European Union and a majority of the
Congolese people to hand over power next week, though his advisers
dispute this.

Kabila’s refusal to step down threatens to thrust his country back
into the kind of chaos that cost millions of lives after his father
took power nearly two decades ago. It could also destroy the tenuous
stability that attracted international investment—mainly from mining
giants like Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Glencore Plc—and turned Congo
into Africa’s biggest producer of copper, tin and cobalt.

In February, S&P Global Ratings lowered Congo’s investment outlook to
negative amid rising political tensions. It affirmed that view in
August. The last civil war destroyed the country’s copper industry,
cutting production more than 96 percent by the time the conflict ended
in 2003.

Since then, foreign investment has helped generate more than 100,000
jobs in mining and oil alone, tripled the size of the economy—and
allowed the family’s empire to flourish. Over that period, Kabila and
his siblings have assembled an international business network
stretching across at least 70 companies, according to a Bloomberg News
analysis of thousands of company documents and court filings as well
as dozens of interviews with bankers, businessmen, miners, farmers and
former government officials.

Kabilas’ interests by amassing an archive of hundreds of thousands of
pages of corporate documents that shows his wife, two children and
eight of his siblings control more than 120 permits to dig gold,
diamonds, copper, cobalt and other minerals.

Two of the family’s businesses alone own diamond permits that stretch
more than 450 miles across Congo’s southwestern border with Angola.
Family members also have stakes in banks, farms, fuel distributors,
airline operators, a road builder, hotels, a pharmaceutical supplier,
travel agencies, boutiques and nightclubs. Another venture even tried
to launch a rat into space on a rocket.

Kabila’s second term as president ends on Dec. 19, and the
constitution bars him from running again. But the country’s electoral
commission has delayed elections until at least April 2018, and a
constitutional court that Kabila created last year has ruled he should
stay on until a vote is held.

Kikaya, who said he couldn’t comment on behalf of the president about
his family’s affairs, nevertheless defended their right to conduct
business. “The Congo is their country—they have to live, they have to
have an income,” he said. “Whether their position as the first family
makes things easy for them I think is normal. It’s normal, provided no
laws are broken.”

For most Congolese, the economy isn’t booming anymore. The government
has had to revise down its growth forecast three times this year due
to weak commodity prices. It’s now at 4.3 percent from an initial goal
of 9 percent in the 2016 budget.

“We’re heading for a big, slow-motion crisis,” said Jean-Marie
Guehenno, head of the International Crisis Group think tank, who knows
Kabila from his eight years as the UN’s head of peacekeeping. “Why is
he refusing to go? For the sake of power? To protect the family
business? Probably a bit of both.”

Many of the companies are run by Jaynet, Joseph Kabila’s twin sister.
After their father’s death, documents show, she set up companies
across Congo, as well as in the U.S., Panama, Tanzania and on the
South Pacific island of Niue. Company filings show she is or has been
a shareholder or director in at least 28 companies. In some, she
controlled a majority of shares while in others she held minority
stakes, the filings show. It’s unclear how many of those companies are
still active.

“The U.S. is putting sanctions on the generals,” he says. “That won’t
make a difference. If you want Kabila to pay attention, you have to
target the financiers.”

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Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga[a] born Joseph-Desire Mobutu; 14 October 1930 -7 September 1997

The name translates as "The warrior who leaves a trail of fire in his
path" or "The warrior who knows no defeat because of his endurance and
inflexible will and is all powerful, leaving fire in his wake as he
goes from conquest to conquest".

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After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring? via @TheStarKenya

The big picture point is in fact a demographic one. Many commentators
define the African population surge as a ‘’dividend’’ but what is
clear is that if it is allowed a Free and Fair vote its going be a
Terminator for a whole number of regimes. The demographic bulge is now
arriving at voting age. This is that moment, its importance cannot be

These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can an incumbent Regime
shoot stone cold dead – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point:
there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that
threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

So now when you look around, you should consider that the
Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is
hanging on by his finger-tips. The Ethiopian Government needs to
re-invent itself as a National movement/Party and do it now. Geriatric
Government from Harare to Equatorial Guinea might not move aside
easily but make no mistake its in the departure lounge and the open
question is will it leave first class, coach or be placed in shackles
and placed at the back of the plane like our People are when they are
sent back from Europe because they have entered illegally.

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Congo asks telecoms to block social media ahead of planned anti-Kabila demos

Authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo have asked
telecommunications companies to block social media networks starting
Sunday night in an apparent bid to thwart anticipated protests against
plans by President Joseph Kabila to stay in power beyond the end of
his mandate.

The request was made in a letter by the Regulatory Authority of the
Post and Telecommunications of Congo (ARPTC) and listed Facebook,
Twitter, Skype, YouTube and LinkedIn as services that should be
temporarily blocked.

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Standard Bank Seeks to Stop Zuma Interfering in Gupta Matter

Standard Bank Group Ltd. asked South Africa’s High Court to prevent
President Jacob Zuma and his ministers from intervening in its
decision to close accounts of companies associated with the Gupta
family, who are friends of the leader and in business with one of his

The appeal goes a step further than an order sought by Finance
Minister Pravin Gordhan, who in October approached the court for a
ruling that he doesn’t have the authority to interfere with whom banks
choose as clients. Gordhan took the steps after the Guptas repeatedly
pressured him to get the banks to overturn their decision. FirstRand
Ltd. and Nedbank Group Ltd. have already filed court papers supporting
Gordhan’s stance.

Companies linked to the Guptas and their Oakbay Investments (Pty) Ltd.
“fall into the category of politically exposed persons,” Standard Bank
said in its papers. This was only one of the factors taken into
consideration when Standard Bank closed the accounts, it said.

Having conducted a due diligence on Gupta companies, Standard Bank
said that continuing a relationship would increase its risk of
contravening laws including the Prevention of Organised Crime Act, the
U.S.’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the U.K.’s Bribery Act. When
asked about allegations in the media, information from representatives
for the Guptas was found to be “insufficient, unconvincing and in one
instance demonstrably dishonest,” Standard Bank said.

Gupta-linked entities embarked on a public campaign to condemn the
lender’s decision to close accounts, attributing a “racist motive to
Standard Bank” and asking one of its international shareholders to
intervene, according to Standard Bank, which didn’t identify the
investor. “The accusations were and are offensive, unlawful and

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Donald Trump's pick for secretary of state has a slippery history with Africa's oil Quartz Africa

Africans watching Trump’s cabinet pick may be concerned with
Tillerson’s track record on the continent of helping support regimes
of some of the continent’s strongmen in pursuit of oil deals.
Based on Tillerson’s record on the continent it is also likely that
human rights and environmental policy take a back seat to more
pragmatic dealmaking, say analysts.
In Equatorial Guinea, Exxon Mobil has facilitated the autocratic
regime of the Obiang family by exploiting its oil reserves. The
political elite use oil revenue as a personal ATM while many in the
small central African state live in abject poverty.
Exxon Mobil has operated similarly in Africa’s largest oil producer,
Angola. The state oil company Sonangol is also an important political
asset, so much so that it will now be run by Isabel dos Santos,
daughter of Angola’s decades-long leader Eduardo dos Santos.
Then there is Nigeria, where Exxon Mobil’s record has been ambivalent.
The company took over Mobil’s operations in the Niger Delta in the
1990s, introducing a more rigid management style, according to a
report by the New York Times. But the company, along with its
competitors, was slow to respond to human rights violations caused by
oil spills, according to Amnesty International.
In Chad Republic, Exxon has also helped fund Idriss Deby hold on to
power, but the longtime leader’s unpredictable politics led to a
record $74 billion fine for unpaid taxes against Exxon. While many of
these deals began before Tillerson’s tenure, they continued under him
and saw Tillerson rub shoulders with leaders like Muammar Gadaffi.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.98% 2016

49,691.31 -1,024.94 -2.02%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.9469


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.4290


Nigeria's 2017 budget seeks to pull the economy out of its first
recession in 25 years---five charts on how ‏@BrookingsGlobal


The Fatal Flaw is 305 Naira. @NGRPresident can tell that to the Birds
‏@alykhansatchu Aly-Khan Satchu Retweeted Brookings Global


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Until investors are convinced the naira is priced fairly, they're unlikely to re-enter Nigerian markets

Until investors are convinced the naira is priced fairly, they’re
unlikely to re-enter Nigerian markets. The currency, which has already
depreciated 37 percent to around 315 per dollar since central bank
Governor Godwin Emefiele ended a peg on June 20, is still trading well
below the black-market rate of 485. One-year non-deliverable forward
contracts trade at 436, another sign investors see more weakening to

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.27% 2016

The 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for members of the Nigerian
Stock Exchange All Share Index was 8.1 as of Wednesday, below even
that of Zimbabwe’s main gauge.


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The proposed merger that will create an African retail giant quartz Africa

Shoprite, Africa’s largest retailer, looks set to be acquired by
Steinhoff, the furniture group that wants to be the continent’s IKEA.
On Dec. 14, the two companies’ largest shareholders issued a
cautionary notice, announcing the creation of an entity called Retail

The Public Investment Corporation, the investment firm owned by the
South African government, and Titan Premier Investments, owned by
South Africa’s richest man, Christo Wiese, said they have “initiated
and facilitated” discussions between the two companies’ boards. (The
PIC and Wiese are the Shoprite’s largest shareholders, while Wiese
owns a further 18% in Steinhoff.) They envisage the new entity as a
diversified retailer with international reach that could be “a retail
champion of Africa.”

Shoprite will take over Steinhoff’s African retail operations, which
include clothing, furniture and DIY outlets that have a footprint
across the continent. The deal will see Shoprite issue new ordinary
shares to Steinhoff, which would give Steinhoff significant equity in
Shoprite Holdings, the notice said. Steinhoff Group would acquire the
PIC and Titan’s interests in Shoprite at a later stage. No concrete
dates have been given for the merger.

Shoprite is Africa’s largest grocery chain, founded in South Africa in
1979 with a more than 2,200 stores in over 16 countries today. In
October, the chain’s CEO, Whitey Basson, stepped down after nearly
four decades at the company. Many speculated that Basson was stepping
aside to allow this merger.

Vestact, an investment and analytics firm, estimated that Retail
Africa will have annual revenues of 200 billion Rand, more than 14
billion dollars. “That,” the firm declared in a commentary on the
news, “is an epic beast.”

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Exotic holidays, gifts and the $380 million fraud that brought down a Kenyan bank Quartz Africa
Kenyan Economy

At the heart of their plight are rogue central bank officials who
conspired with the mid-sized lender’s officials to steal from
depositors, according to court filings seen by Quartz. Shareholders
are blaming officials at Kenya’s central bank who are said to have
conspired in a multi-year fraud that cost the lender $380 million in
bad loans and customer deposits.

“Bro, we agreed with Janmohamed my children shall never lack school
fees as long as his bank was in operation.” – from a recovered email

The funds were swindled from the bank by the late Abdulamek
Janmohamed, principal shareholder of the bank he started in 1992 and
served as managing director until his demise in September 2015.
Together with other managers, it is claimed he carried out the fraud
in collusion with among others, former governor, Prof. Njuguna
Ndung’u. In a counterclaim and defense against a negligence lawsuit
filed by the central bank, Imperial Bank’s shareholders claimed Prof.
Ndung’u and about a dozen other officials of the apex bank were given
assorted favors by top management of the bank to aid in circumventing
industry regulations in their dealings.

Prof. Ndung’u, who served as governor at the central bank from Mar.
2007 to Mar. 2015 was said to have had visas sponsored for visits to
Dubai while his wife was sponsored for personal holidays to exclusive
resorts in Thailand. “Over the course of many years, and unbeknownst
to the bank’s board (Imperial), CBK’s officials deliberately flouted,
breached and/or otherwise acted in disregard of the law in relation to
the supervisory processes,” the court filings state.

Soon after the retirement of Prof. Ndung’u, the incoming governor,
Patrick Njoroge, a no-nonsense administrator, on discovering unethical
practices that flouted regulatory rules, put two lenders, Dubai Bank
Kenya and Imperial Bank into receivership two months after assuming
office. This cast the spotlight on Prof. Ndung’u, whom critics accused
of having been compromised when the fraudulent bank practices took
place. In April this year, the central bank put Chase Bank, another
mid-sized lender under receivership.

The central bank has sued current shareholders and the estate of
Janmohamed to recover $450 million to pay large depositors. The
shareholders are accused of negligence and recklessness in their
fiduciary duty and for awarding themselves millions of dollars in
dividends notwithstanding the precarious financial situation of the

The central bank is also keen on liquidating Imperial Bank after
failing to get shareholders to recapitalize it with $200 million that
would have expedited its reopening. As to when the liquidation will
happen would depend on how soon court cases pertaining to the bank’s
collapse are finalized. Another mid-tier Kenyan lender, NIC is intent
on buying portions of Imperial Bank’s assets including branches in
strategic locations.

Meanwhile, Njoroge’s clean-up of the banking sector has not been taken
in good stead by beneficiaries of unethical practices in the industry.
They are reported to have filed or sponsored an avalanche of legal
suits to frustrate or have him ousted from office. What remains to be
seen is what action will be taken against complicit central bank

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Dutch Fund acquires stake in Kenyan Dairy firm, 2 months after getting stake in Twiga Foods
Kenyan Economy

DOB Equity, a leading Dutch family run Private Equity fund has
announced that it has taken up a stake in Kenya’s Countryside Dairy
Ltd at a undisclosed value, describing it as one of Kenya’s largest
social impact investment in the dairy sector.

The deal by DOB Equity comes barely three months after it acquired a
minority stake in another Kenyan food wholesaler Twiga Foods, again
for an undisclosed sum.

Countryside Dairy Ltd, is a milk processing company established in
2014 and operates from the Kenyan equator town of Nyahururu. The firm
processes pasteurized fresh milk products for the low-income market
segment and institutional organisations such as hospitals, hotels and
schools and does about 100,000 litres of milk on a daily basis.

The Private Equity fund has offices in Kenya, Tanzania and the
Netherlands and the latest investment will expand DOB Equity’s current
equity portfolio in the regional diary sector, where it already holds
a stake in Tanga Fresh, the Tanzania-based dairy processor.

According to the Kenya National Dairy Master Plan 2010 estimates, the
Kenya dairy sub sector is valued at more than Kshs 100billion and is
the single largest contributor to Kenya’s agricultural GDP-higher than
Tea and horticulture.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.215
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -10.12% 2016


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -22.54% 2016


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2016

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