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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 20th of December 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

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4-NOV-2016 :: Here comes President Trump @TheStarKenya
Africa


I think the QE [Quantitative Easing] consensus is now a busted Flush.

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Statement by the IMF Executive Board on Legal Proceedings in France Relating to the Managing Director December 19, 2016 @IMFNews
Africa


“The Executive Board met today to consider recent developments in the
legal proceedings in France involving Managing Director Christine
Lagarde. The Executive Board took all relevant factors into account in
its discussions, including the Managing Director’s outstanding
leadership of the Fund and the wide respect and trust for her
leadership globally.

“In this context, the Executive Board reaffirms its full confidence in
the Managing Director’s ability to continue to effectively carry out
her duties.

“Under the Fund’s governance framework, the Managing Director is
appointed by the Executive Board and performs her duties under the
Board’s direction. In the exercise of its oversight responsibilities,
the Executive Board has met regularly, since the Managing Director’s
appointment in 2011, to consider whether developments in the legal
proceedings in France relating to the Managing Director have affected
her ability to lead the Fund.

“The Executive Board looks forward to continuing to work with the
Managing Director to address the difficult challenges facing the
global economy.”

Conclusions


I am glad about that. Madam Lagarde has provided outstanding
leadership at the IMF. She has recast the IMF as a more inclusive
organisation and optimised it for the new age. And she has
consistently showed c21st Leadership at a moment when the world needs
all the leadership we can get.

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6 JAN 14 :: Christine Lagarde The IMF and MINDSPEAK The Star
Africa


If Mindspeak was an ice-cream Sundae, then Christine Lagarde’s
appearance today is like the Maraschino cherry that you find on top of
the Sundae.

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Road less traveled. Laisamis - Kamboe Road at Log Logo in Marsabit County, Northern Kenya @kenyapics
Africa


“Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the
road.” ― Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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"Don't forget Aleppo, don't forget Syria" Independent
Law & Politics


“Don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria. Unless our towns are secure,
you won’t enjoy security. Everyone who is involved in this will pay a
price. Only death can take me from here.”

Firing more shots into the fallen ambassador’s body he declared: “We
are the ones who pledged allegiance to Mohammed, to wage jihad.”

The killer was identified as Mevlut Mert Aydintas, 22, by Turkey’s
interior minister – and it was suggested he was a member of the Ankara
riot police.

Conclusions

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19-DEC-2016 :: The Meaning of Aleppo @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Aleppo is an ancient metropolis, and according to Wikipedia, one of
the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world – it may have
been inhabited since the sixth millennium BC. Such a long history is
attributed to its strategic location as a trading centre midway
between the Mediterranean Sea and Mesopotamia (modern Iraq). Aleppo
was always a mosaic
of peoples and religions, with Muslims, Christians and a large
Armenian community. Aleppo was always a symbol of a secular Syria and
probably informs us of why it became such a potent symbol for the
Jihadists, many of whom were ported straight out of Benghazi.

The importance of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad’s victory cannot
be gainsaid. Of course it is not only the optometrist President’s
victory but also a victory for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and for Iran’s
Sayyed Ali Khamenei. Without that constellation of Iranian ground
forces and Russian air power, President Assad would surely have been a
foot-note just like former Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi whom Hillary
Clinton said:

‘’We came, we saw, he died.’’

The Arab ‘’Spring’’ started in Tunisia and as the ‘’Jasmine’’
revolution with the self-immolation of the 26-year-old Mohamed
Bouazizi.

However, in a Rumsfeldian move you will recall Rumsfeld said this
after 9/11: “Hard to get good case. Need to move swiftly,” the notes
say. “Near term target needs – go massive – sweep it all up, things
related and not.” Western powers saw an opportunity to topple Gaddafi
and Bashar. Aleppo is where the regime change agenda was stopped in
its tracks.  This is the first and overarching point. Of course, the
price that has been paid by ordinary Syrians to achieve this has been
off the charts.  The hand-wringing and grand-standing out of the likes
of Ambassador Power is not correlated to their sense of tragedy about
the lives lost, but entirely correlated to the geopolitical import of
Aleppo. Proxy assets have been annihilated or about to be – and
remember the last thing the owners of the proxies want is that the
‘’Head- Choppers’’ come home to Riyadh, Doha and Istanbul.

‘’As flies to wanton boys are we to th’ gods,  They kill us for their sport’’

The proxies will be dispensed with on Syrian soil because if they ever
do go home, then we will really have an “Arab Spring’’ – not one that
was manufactured.  The propaganda that was the White Helmets, that was
the idea that a bunch of Wahhabist Head-Choppers were going to bring
democracy to Syria has been exposed, and is particularly poor in
comparison with, for example, Russian interference in the US election,
which was non-linear and seriously sophisticated.

President Assad, who was once hanging on in Damascus by his
finger-tips, has seen off former British Prime Minister David Cameron,
US President Barack Obama, Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi, and the
single-digit (popularity) President François Hollande of France.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now surrounded on all sides in
Europe. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt has seen the way the
wind is blowing and has skedaddled into the Russia, Iran Axis.

Aleppo is the moment when the trend changed, and Russia and Iran are
now in the ascendancy; and those in their palaces in Riyadh, Doha and
Istanbul need to appreciate how fluid this moment is, and how exposed
they are now. Let me leave with you with the Poem Ozymandias By Bysshe
Shelley:

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

And ask who will be Ozymandias?

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Berlin 'attack': At least 12 killed and 48 injured after lorry ploughs into Christmas market
Law & Politics


“A lunatic has driven into the Christmas market.  People are
screaming. It’s carnage,” one distressed marketgoer told Germany’s
Bild newspaper. It was the city’s worst attack in more than a decade.

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Trump's and Xi's Differences Magnify Uncertainties Between U.S. and China NYT
Law & Politics


Both came to power vowing to restore their nations to greatness. But
America’s loud, ad-libbing president-elect, Donald J. Trump, and
China’s guarded, calculating president, Xi Jinping, are glaring
contrasts as politicians, and their pairing has injected new
unpredictability into relations between their governments.

“I could not think of two more different protagonists in the great
drama of U.S.-China relations,” Evan S. Medeiros, formerly the senior
director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said by
email. “Personalities matter a lot in international relations,
especially between great powers.”

Mr. Trump has recently blared warnings at China, seemingly guided by
visceral reflexes and a vague but bold set of demands. By contrast,
Mr. Xi, the son of a Communist veteran, is disciplined and steely. He
rarely speaks off the cuff in public. Even his seemingly impromptu
gestures are often carefully choreographed, and he usually adheres to
policy points when meeting foreign leaders. Mr. Xi is certainly
capable of bold action, as he has shown in the South China Sea, but he
tends to shroud his thinking in a cloud of slogans.

“The situation could become quite combustible,” said Jessica Chen
Weiss, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies
Chinese foreign policy.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0375
Dollar Index 103.39
Japan Yen 117.90
Swiss Franc 1.0291
Pound 1.2386
Aussie 0.7251
India Rupee 67.905
South Korea Won 1193.33
Brazil Real 3.3645
Egypt Pound 19.3480
South Africa Rand 14.1285

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05-DEC-2016 Putin's Parabolic Rebound
Commodities


In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo,
and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as
well.

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Crude Oil Chart INO 52.88
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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12-DEC-2016 the Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is hanging on by his finger-tips
Africa


These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can an incumbent Regime
shoot stone cold dead – 100, 1,000, 10,000?  is is another point:
there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that
threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

So now when you look around, you should consider that the
Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is
hanging on by his finger-tips.

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Congo finds itself in dangerous waters FT View
Africa


Mr Kabila should know that his bid to cling to power will come to
haunt him. It is still within his gift to avert disaster. By handing
over now to a caretaker government with a realistic timetable to
organise elections, he might even salvage a better place in history.
In the absence of a credible succession, the momentum will otherwise
shift to the streets.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.60% 2016
Africa


49,880.99 +189.68 +0.38%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.1285

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 19.3480 [Big down move]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.18% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -19.51% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Isabel dos Santos in push to reshape Angola's state oil company @FT
Africa


Stating her intention to remain with Sonangol after the 37-year rule
of her father, José Eduardo dos Santos, ends in 2017, Ms dos Santos
says the company will be split into three separate units — exploration
and production, logistics, and a division that handles Sonangol’s
concessions to international oil companies. All its non-oil interests
— covering more than 90 companies, including a football team — will be
placed in a fund, with some marked for disposal.

“We had lost our focus on core oil business,” says Ms dos Santos, who
took control of the company in June under a presidential decree. “We
were probably not controlling our assets — our oil assets — as much as
we should, and most of all, we lacked a strategic vision.”

In a recent presentation to banks, Sonangol’s management laid bare the
challenges facing the company, with output set to slip from 1.7m
barrels a day this year to 1.5m b/d by 2021 without fresh investment.
At that level Sonangol would not be pumping enough oil to service its
debts at current prices.

More immediately, Sonangol needs to find new financing to meet a
$1.6bn payment shortfall before the end of the year and has been in
talks with international banks.

“My vision is to make Sonangol very profitable,” says Ms dos Santos.

Since she took the reins at Sonangol, the company’s debt has fallen to
$9.8bn, from $13.6bn at the end of 2015. Ms dos Santos is targeting a
further reduction to $8bn next year. More than $240m of cost savings
have been identified and capital expenditure has fallen to $3bn, from
$4.6bn in 2015.

“I think by 2021, 2022 this company will definitely be in different
place than it is today,” says Ms dos Santos.

In 2013 Sonangol, whose sole shareholder is the government, made
profits of $3.1bn, but that fell to less than $400m last year. Ms dos
Santos says there will be no dividend payment this year as she tries
to restructure its finances, fix an internal accounting system and
strip back layers of management.

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Awaiting deportation provided time to reflect on corruption gripping Kenya Jerome Starkey
Kenyan Economy


There was only one thing about Kenya that scared me before I was
thrown out of the country last week.

It wasn’t violent crime. I walked Nairobi’s slums with cameras and
computers and never felt the least bit threatened. I slept in villas
on the beach, built without walls to let in the breeze, and I never
faced an intruder. My house in Nairobi, home for the past five years,
didn’t even have a gate.

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@NationMediaGrp share price data here -47.38% 2016
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           88.00
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        16,591,721,168
EPS:             11.8
PE:                 7.458

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.265
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -10.05% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

131.06 +0.25 +0.19%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -23.67% 2016 [Fresh multi-year closing Low]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,084.48 -20.47 -0.66%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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