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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 22nd of December 2016
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Bitcoin vs. Gold @M_McDonough
Africa


Home Thoughts

I have been reading Paul Theroux of late -

“Tourists don't know where they've been, travelers don't know where
they're going.” ― Paul Theroux

“You go away for a long time and return a different person - you never
come all the way back.” ― Paul Theroux, Dark Star Safari: Overland
from Cairo to Cape Town

“Death is an endless night so awful to contemplate that it can make us
love life and value it with such passion that it may be the ultimate
cause of all joy and all art.” ― Paul Theroux

read more









Atlanticists are appalled that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are now fully engaged in designing a post-Battle of Aleppo Syrian future
Law & Politics


Atlanticists are appalled that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are now fully
engaged in designing a post-Battle of Aleppo Syrian future, to the
graphic exclusion of the NATO-GCC combo.

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every single armed group in Syria (whether 'moderate' or 'extremist') has been armed and financed by the US and its allies, in an attempt to overthrow the Syrian Government.
Law & Politics


The endgame in Aleppo involves a handful of foreign agents – US,
Saudi, Israeli and others – said to remain with the last al Qaeda
groups in a tiny part of what was once their stronghold. The US in
particular is keen to secure their release, because their presence is
further evidence of the foreign command of what was claimed to be a
‘civil war’.

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19-DEC-2016 :: Aleppo is where the regime change agenda was stopped in its tracks
Law & Politics


President Assad would surely have been a foot-note just like former
Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi whom Hillary Clinton said: ‘’We came, we
saw, he died.’’

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19-DEC-2016 :: The Meaning of Aleppo @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Aleppo is the moment when the trend changed, and Russia and Iran are
now in the ascendancy; and those in their palaces in Riyadh, Doha and
Istanbul need to appreciate how fluid this moment is, and how exposed
they are now.

read more



Aleppo is an ancient metropolis may have been inhabited since the sixth millennium BC
Law & Politics


Aleppo is an ancient metropolis, and according to Wikipedia, one of
the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world – it may have
been inhabited since the sixth millennium BC.

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Vladimir Putin was informed of the assassination while on his way to watch a play written by Alexander Griboyedov
Law & Politics


Altıntaş was killed by security forces who stormed the building.
Vladimir Putin was informed of the assassination while on his way to
watch a play written by Alexander Griboyedov, Nicholas I’s ambassador
to Persia, who was killed in 1829 when a mob stormed the Russian
embassy in Tehran.

read more



29-APR-2013 :: The Brothers Tsarnaev and the Long Tail
Law & Politics


There are more than seven billion of us now in this c21st world of
ours. The long tail in a population of seven billion is not an
insignificant absolute number.

‘’In statistics, a long tail of some distributions of numbers is the
portion of the distribution having a large number of occurrences far
from the “head” or central part of the distribution.’’

Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in
this new c21st of ours. And whilst I appreciate Osama Bin Laden is
being nibbled by the fishes somewhere in the ocean, he basically
inspired the likes of the Brothers Tsarnaev, i.e those disaffected
with the c21st. In truth, that disaffection might have any number of
reasons and I am reminded of my French O level where I studied Albert
Camus’ L’Etranger and Camus said;

“The byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action*.”

Don’t get me wrong, I do not think of these folks as byronic, not by a
long shot.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0457
Dollar Index 102.83
Japan Yen 117.64
Swiss Franc 1.0236
Pound 1.2331
Aussie 0.7198
India Rupee 67.965
South Korea Won 1203.10
Brazil Real 3.3271
Egypt Pound 19.3020
South Africa Rand 13.9746

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Bloomberg Commodity Index looks set to notch up an annual gain for the first time since 2010
Commodities


A 10 percent gain wouldn't exactly make 2016 a leap year; the index is
still only at roughly half the level where it ended 2010.

The second thing is that, of the four groups that are up, three really
count: energy, industrial metals and precious metals (sorry, coffee
and sugar, 7 percent is just a bit too small). These three add up to
63 percent of the index and will determine to a large degree whether
it ends 2017 in the black, too.

So to ensure a really happy new year for commodities, you just need to
put your faith in a gang of Indian brides, Chinese bureaucrats and
Middle Eastern frenemies. Situation normal.

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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda
Emerging Markets


The melt-down is coming.

Ryszard Kapuciski said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not
reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”

The revolution is only just beginning.

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12-DEC-2016 the Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is hanging on by his finger-tips
Africa


These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can an incumbent Regime
shoot stone cold dead – 100, 1,000, 10,000?  is is another point:
there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that
threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

So now when you look around, you should consider that the
Biker-President sitting in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa is
hanging on by his finger-tips.

read more



Oil Rise Makes Gabon Bonds Emerging Market's Most Profitable
Africa


Gabon’s 6.375 percent bonds have returned 6.2 percent in December. The
yield has fallen 95 basis points, poised for the steepest monthly drop
since April 2015, to 7.6 percent on Wednesday.

read more



Coca Cola buys African bottling from AB InBev for $3.15b
Africa


Anheuser-Busch InBev has agreed to sell its majority stake in Africa's
largest Coke bottler to the Coca Cola Company for $3.15 billion, the
final planned divestment following its purchase of rival brewer
SABMiller.

read more


Kenya turns down funds to educate voters before poll Times
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan government has closed a US-funded project to educate voters in
the run-up to next year’s elections in the latest sign that President
Kenyatta fears foreign interference could sway the polls against him.

Mr Kenyatta, who had studied at Amherst College in Massachusetts,
claimed money was coming to Kenya “in the guise of supporting good
governance or civic education”.

“Its true intention is to influence our electoral choices,” he said.
“This is our country, and no one should ever try and control our
choices for their selfish interests.”

Robert Godec, the US ambassador, rejected what he called an “attempt
to discredit the United States”. He said his government was trying to
“assist Kenyans in the conduct of free, fair, peaceful and credible
elections in 2017”.

Conclusions

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The traditional incumbent re-election bias is at a historic low and the ground is fast shifting beneath the feet of the political establishment @LSEforBusiness
Kenyan Economy


The traditional incumbent re-election bias is at a historic low and
the ground is fast shifting beneath the feet of the political
establishment. What has triggered the turn of the tide?

read more


Kenyan banks in danger of being locked out of US financial system over Money laundering claims NTV
Kenyan Economy


John Prendergast, a former Assistant National Security Adviser, and
who is now a Founding Director of the Enough Project, told me that
Kenyan financial institutions may have to make difficult choices when
it comes to operating in the troubled country. In September, the group
issued a report which implicated Kenyan banks in helping corrupt South
Sudanese officials get money out of the country.

read more




 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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