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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 28th of December 2016
 
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"Never believe that there is a room you have no right to walk into."
@Flotus Michelle Obama

Macro Thoughts

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In Memoriam, [Ring out, wild bells] Lord Alfred Tennyson
Africa


Ring out, wild bells, to the wild sky,
   The flying cloud, the frosty light:
   The year is dying in the night;
Ring out, wild bells, and let him die.

Ring out the old, ring in the new,
   Ring, happy bells, across the snow:
   The year is going, let him go;
Ring out the false, ring in the true.

Ring out the grief that saps the mind
   For those that here we see no more;
   Ring out the feud of rich and poor,
Ring in redress to all mankind.

Ring out a slowly dying cause,
   And ancient forms of party strife;
   Ring in the nobler modes of life,
With sweeter manners, purer laws.

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Israel's Settlements Have No Legal Validity, Constitute Flagrant Violation of International Law, Security Council Reaffirms
Law & Politics


14 Delegations in Favour of Resolution 2334 (2016) as United States Abstains

The Security Council reaffirmed this afternoon that Israel’s
establishment of settlements in Palestinian territory occupied since
1967, including East Jerusalem, had no legal validity, constituting a
flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the
vision of two States living side-by-side in peace and security, within
internationally recognized borders.

Adopting resolution 2334 (2016) by 14 votes, with the United States
abstaining, the Council reiterated its demand that Israel immediately
and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied
Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem.  It underlined that
it would not recognize any changes to the 4 June 1967 lines, including
with regard to Jerusalem, other than those agreed by the two sides
through negotiations.

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Israel Threatens to Give Trump Evidence Obama Was Behind U.N. Resolution SLATE
Law & Politics


“It’s an old story that the United Nations gangs up on Israel,”
Israel’s Ambassador Dermer said on CNN. “What is new is that the
United States did not stand up and oppose that gang up. And what is
outrageous is that the United States was actually behind that gang
up.”

When asked to provide evidence of that supposed collusion, which the
Obama administration has been denying for days, Dermer said it would
be presented to the incoming administration. "We will present this
evidence to the new administration through the appropriate channels,
and if they want to share it with the American people they are welcome
to do it," Dermer said.

The Israeli ambassador issued his threat shortly after a Netanyahu
spokesman said the government has “rather iron-clad information from
sources in both the Arab world and internationally” that the
resolution was the result of “a deliberate push by the United States
and in fact they helped create the resolution in the first place.” The
United States did not vote in favor of the resolution but the Israeli
government has characterized the decision to abstain—rather than
veto—the measure as a betrayal.

The threat to a sitting U.S. president and the way it is playing its
cards in favor of an incoming administration of the country that has
long been Israel’s closest ally “appears almost unprecedented,” notes
the Guardian

Conclusions

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Why Donald Trump's rhetoric-with apologies to Orwell-works so well The Economist
Law & Politics


IT IS easy to make fun of the way Donald Trump uses the English
language. His tweets tend to follow the same structure: two brief
statements, then a single emotive word or phrase and an exclamation
mark. (On June 12th, after the Orlando shootings: “We must be smart!”)
He invents playground nicknames for his opponents (Little Marco, Lyin’
Ted, Crooked Hillary). His vocabulary is earthy: “big-league”, to
describe how he would do things, or “schlonged”, for someone beaten
badly. During the primary campaign, his swearing was so criticised
that he promised to stop (and actually did).

How did this man become the presidential nominee of the party of
Abraham Lincoln? He must be doing something right: after all, language
is virtually all a politician has to wield influence with (handshakes
and hugs aside). Something about the way he talks and writes swept
more experienced politicians aside.

the “Flesch-Kincaid” reading-level test measures only the length of
sentences and words, and says nothing about content. At worst, it
measures exactly the wrong thing in political speech: short sentences
containing common words are, all things being equal, a good thing.
“Never use a long word when a short one will do,” Orwell wrote in
“Politics and the English Language”. Simplicity is not stupidity;
making language easy to apprehend is intrinsic to making it appealing.
Countless psychological studies have shown that what is easy to
process is seen as more truthful. “I’m going to build a big, beautiful
wall and Mexico is going to pay for it” may be preposterous, but it is
easy to understand, and the human brain, in its weakness, likes easy
things.

Another Trump tactic is repetition. This, too, may be incorrectly seen
as childish. Mr Trump does often say exactly the same thing several
times in a row in a crude, hammer-blow fashion

Yet the most effective way Mr Trump beguiles his audience is perhaps
the simplest: he does not give speeches. Instead, he talks. (Only
rarely, when even he realises that his mouth can get him into
trouble—as in his first speech after the Orlando shootings—does he
resort to a teleprompter.) He does not even seem to have a “stump
speech”

This unscripted quality is powerful. Even a valid argument is weakened
if it sounds canned. Even an invalid one sounds stronger if it appears
spontaneous, especially to voters disgusted with the professional
politicians. This reveals a dangerous double edge to Orwell’s famous
rules for clear and honest English. An honest speaker would do well to
keep words and sentences short and concrete, and to avoid clichés, as
Orwell advises. But a demagogue can use these tools, too. Orwell
believed in the talismanic power of clear language to make lies and
appalling talk plain. But some voters cannot recognise a lie, and
others want to hear appalling things. If there are enough of these,
then a looseness with the facts, a smash-mouth approach to opponents
and a mesmerisingly demotic style make a dangerously effective
cocktail.

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Here comes president Trump Nov. 14, 2016 @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


“This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its
position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed
insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.

Returning to President-elect Trump who deployed linguistic warfare
with devastating effect. The names he gave his opponents — Crooked
Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating.

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25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics


Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no
easy thing. In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic
world. When I plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up
this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The
smallmonitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry
here, where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

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Out of Time: A Contemporary View Gerhard Richter @Moma
Law & Politics


The fifteen paintings that compose October 18, 1977 are based on
photographs of moments in the lives and deaths of four members of the
Red Army Faction (RAF), a German left-wing terrorist group that
perpetrated a number of kidnappings and killings throughout the 1970s.
Like On Kawara's date paintings, these paintings have a single date as
their title. On this date the bodies of three principal RAF members
were found in the cells of the German prison where they were
incarcerated. Although the deaths were officially deemed suicides,
there was widespread suspicion that the prisoners had been murdered by
the German state police. Richter based his paintings on newspaper and
police photographs; his reworking of these documentary sources is
dark, blurred, and diffuse. Richter hopes that, "by way of reporting,"
these paintings will "contribute to an appreciation of [our time], to
see it as it is."

"Stories have no point if they don't absorb our terror." -- Don DeLillo, Mao II

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Saudi Royal Family Is Still Spending in an Age of Austerity NYT
Law & Politics


TANGIER, Morocco — Behind a tall perimeter wall, studded with
surveillance cameras and guarded by Moroccan soldiers, a sprawling new
palace for King Salman of Saudi Arabia rose on the Atlantic coast here
last summer.

Even as the Saudi government canceled a quarter of a trillion dollars’
worth of projects back home as part of a fiscal austerity program,
workers hustled to finish bright blue landing pads for helicopters at
the vacation compound and to erect a tent the size of a circus big-top
where the king could feast and entertain his enormous retinue.

The royal family’s fortune derives from the reserves of petroleum
discovered during the reign of Salman’s father, King Abdulaziz ibn
Saud, more than 75 years ago. The sale of oil provides billions of
dollars in annual allowances, public-sector sinecures and perks for
royals, the wealthiest of whom own French chateaus and Saudi palaces,
stash money in Swiss bank accounts, wear couture dresses under their
abayas and frolic on some of the world’s biggest yachts out of sight
of commoners.

King Salman serves as chairman of the family business unofficially
known as “Al Saud Inc.”

King Salman already had significant holdings in France. Property
records there show that he owns a dozen apartments in the affluent
16th Arrondissement of Paris, worth an estimated $35 million. He also
maintains a luxury chateau on the Côte d’Azur in France and a palace
in Marbella on Spain’s Costa del Sol.

The king, of course, does not lack for options at home, with a network
of marble-columned palaces and countryside retreats stretching from
the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf. But the Tangier compound appears to
be his current favorite getaway.

During his visit this summer, some hundred black Mercedes sedans and
Range Rovers were waiting to chauffeur the royal party around town.
The palace complex includes its own medical facilities and top-flight
restaurant kitchens that turn out dishes with lobster, caviar and
truffles flown in from France.

Many staff members had to leave their phones at the gate so photos did
not leak out. But a Twitter gadfly working under the pseudonym
Mujtahidd, who has successfully predicted some major royal news in the
past, broadcast to his 1.7 million followers details about the
construction, luxury cars and five-star hotels for the entourage. Mr.
Qusayer, the spokesman, said in a written statement that the costs
were covered from the king’s personal account, not by the government.

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Efforts to contain Russia are failing Lilia Shevtsova @FT
Law & Politics


Russia’s return to the global scene, not only as an opponent of the
west but also as a state that aims to influence internal developments
in western societies, has created a new intellectual and geopolitical
challenge. Allegations of Moscow’s meddling in the US presidential
election suggest vulnerability in the face of Russian power — real or
imagined. Despite being much weaker than the Soviet Union, Russia
today nevertheless has a greater ability to provoke mischief than the
communist empire ever did, while western debates on how to contain (or
engage) Russia have an air of helplessness.

This situation is without historical precedent. Russia failed to
transform itself into a liberal power and, in a bitter irony, it is
Russian liberals who, by supporting one-man rule and working for it,
have played an important role in helping the revamped system of
personalised power to endure. The system has survived by dumping
communism, mimicking liberal standards and by faking partnership with
the west and then opposing it. Here is a state that has given itself a
shot of adrenalin, not by openly combating its opponent (so far), but
by undermining it from within.

The collapse of the Soviet Union left the west without an ideological
competitor, paving the way for complacency. Over time, as the dividing
lines between fundamental principles blurred — between sovereignty and
interference, the rule of law and lawlessness, democracy and personal
rule — illiberal systems found that the new environment was to their
liking.

Containment requires ideological clarity, but the ambiguity of the
post-cold war world made the strategy irrelevant. How to contain an
opponent that wields your own liberal slogans against you? How to
deter an opponent that has created powerful lobbying networks inside
western societies? And how to constrain an opponent that employs
nuclear blackmail?

Such a state, which has been integrated into the world trade and
security systems, cannot be successfully deterred. Isolation of a
nuclear state is an even riskier proposition. And besides, the
containment of Russia becomes even more problematic whenever Moscow
launches charm offensives on the west. “We don’t want any
confrontation . . . We need friends,” Russian president Vladimir Putin
has said repeatedly.

But what balance can there be when the asymmetry between the economic
and military might of the parties to such a bargain is so glaring?
(Russia’s gross domestic product constitutes 2.1 per cent of global
output; Nato’s budget dwarfs Russian military spending.) True, the
Kremlin can bridge this gap with a readiness to use blackmail and
other “soft power” techniques. But what would the west get in return?

The Russian system rejects the idea of making concessions to a hostile
civilisation. If the Kremlin is to abandon its fortress mentality,
which depends upon viewing the west as an enemy, then it has to be
presented with a persuasive demonstration that the west is susceptible
to Russian power and influence. But is the west ready to signal
surrender?

We stand at the beginning of a new epoch in which we will have to
reassess many of the axioms of the post-cold war era. The west will
not be able to respond until it decides what to do about the support
mechanisms for illiberal systems like the Russian one that have
established themselves in its societies, and until it is less
ambivalent in its defence of liberal democratic norms.

The prospects for such a change, however, are gloomy. Political elites
in both Russia and the west have shown no sign that they know how to
manage adversarial relations in an era of globalisation.

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14-NOV-2016 :: I think the QE [Quantitative Easing] consensus is now a busted Flush @TheStarKenya
International Trade


I think the QE [Quantitative Easing] consensus is now a busted Flush.
Remember a vast swathe of the pro-Brexit and pro-Trump camps were the
older white folks who have seen their savings evaporate in the world
of negative interest rates. This is the point. They want a return on
their savings and Theresa May and Trump get that. The bond markets get
it as well.

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21-NOV-2016 :: Higher Interest Rate is Propelling the Dollar @TheStarKenya
International Trade


What we are watching is the cratering of the Quantitative Easing Consensus.

Prime Minister Theresa May said this at the Conservative Party's
annual conference in October

"While monetary policy – with super-low interest rates and
quantitative easing – provided the necessary emergency medicine after
the financial crash, we have to acknowledge there have been some bad
side effects.

"People with assets have got richer. People without them have
suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People
with savings have found themselves poorer.

"A change has got to come. And we are going to deliver it. Because
that’s what a Conservative Government can do."

Prime Minister May and President Trump have been propelled to Power on
the back of older [mostly white] Folks, many of whom have seen their
hard-earned savings over a life-time, now earn them a paltry return
and a negative one in many cases. When all the now dumb-founded
Pollsters reach their ''mea culpa'' moment, they will all realise that
they underestimated the frustration and anger of this constituency.
This is important and this is what the Bond Market has seen very
clearly. The QE consensus is dead in the Water. Stone-cold Dead

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0478
Dollar Index 102.91
Japan Yen 117.56
Swiss Franc 1.0270
Pound 1.2292
Aussie 0.7213
India Rupee 68.215
South Korea Won 1207.01
Brazil Real 3.2710
Egypt Pound 19.0680
South Africa Rand 13.9055

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@WSJ One of 2016's worst-performing assets: frontier markets
Frontier Markets


Investors pulled $840 million in 2016 from frontier-market funds through Dec. 21

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Trump to meet with Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou
Africa


Dec 26 (Reuters) - Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou plans to
meet with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday to discuss the
ongoing political turmoil crisis in Libya and other African issues,
Sassou's spokesman said on Monday.

Sassou's spokesman Thierry Moungalla, in a post on Twitter, noted that
the two men were meeting to discuss ways to the end the Libyan crisis
as well other broader issues affecting the continent, according to a
statement attached to the tweet. He did not give any other details
about the meeting plans.

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'We've had enough': Kinshasa holds its breath amid talks to end violence
Africa


“It’s a power struggle, whether around a table or in the street,” said
Valentin Mubake, a senior official of the UDPS, the main opposition
party.

Kabila now appears to have won the first round of hostilities

“No ruler has fallen because of what happens in Kinshasa. Their
resources are drained by the sheer effort of controlling the country,
and then they topple,” said one Kinshasa-based western expert.

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Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank cut its 2016 GDP growth estimate to 2.5 percent
Africa


Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank cut its 2016 GDP growth
estimate to 2.5 percent from an earlier forecast of 4.3 percent due to
low commodity prices, it said in a report on its website.

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"I announce the provisional cessation of military hostilities across the country as from midnight Tuesday," Dhlakama, who is in hiding, told reporters
Africa


"I took the initiative, I called the President of the Republic, Filipe
Nyusi, and gave him the possibility to offer this provisional truce."

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.55% 2016
Africa


49,400.56 -433.21 -0.87%

Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 13.9055

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=f&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 19.0720

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.53% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -16.63% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Only about 7,100 cheetahs remain in the world
Africa


Only about 7,100 cheetahs remain in the world and their numbers are
quickly dwindling, putting them at risk of extinction, according to
new research

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Fitch has maintained its long-term rating on Kenya's foreign and local currency at 'B+' but with a negative outlook
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's large and persistent fiscal deficits have led to a steady
increase in gross general government debt, to 55% of GDP at end-FY16
from 42% at end-FY13. Fitch forecasts it will rise further to 57% at
end-FY17, just above the 'B' median of 56%. As a percentage of revenue
the debt level is 287%, compared with the 'B' median of 230%.

We paid a visit to the Nairobi National Park. and drove around the
Southern Boundary,

Its southern boundary is formed by the Mbagathi River. This boundary
is not fenced and is open to the Kitengela Conservation Area (located
immediately south of the park) and the Athi-Kapiti plains.[3][4] There
is considerable movement of large ungulate species across this
boundary.[4]

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.39
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -9.46% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

131.91 -0.13 -0.10%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -22.944% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,113.61 +6.70 +0.22% [3,080.16 was the multi-year closing Low from 20th Dec]

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more




 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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