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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 29th of December 2016

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

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The man who invented the world's most important number

When Minos Zombanakis devised Libor—the London interbank offered
rate—half a century ago, he had no way of knowing it would star in one
of history’s greatest financial scandals.

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Good Morning World #ThisisNairobi

Nairobi is quite deserted and it only takes a moment to get from A to B

Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
The muttering retreats          5
Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
Streets that follow like a tedious argument
Of insidious intent
To lead you to an overwhelming question….               10
Oh, do not ask, “What is it?”
Let us go and make our visit.

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Meti stands for Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence and is a new project that will look to send out signals into space so that extra-terrestrials can pick them up.

Scientists have tried in the past to send out messages into space.
Those have included Nasa’s pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft that carried
messages written onto plaques and a record, as well as radio messages
that have been sent out into the universe.

It isn’t clear that any of those have ever been received. Some have
suggested that we might have received similar messages ourselves, but
most scientists believe that we have so far failed to hear or talk to
any alien life.

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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, "a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy".

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy.  There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“ There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“ Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
 The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

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The lady in this photo is Defense Minister Tomomi Inada who China is criticizing for visiting the Yasukuni Shrine @MichiyoCNA

"This year the president of the country that dropped the atomic bomb
visited Hiroshima, and yesterday the prime minister made remarks of
consolation at Pearl Harbor," Inada told reporters at Yasukuni.

"I visited the shrine wishing to firmly create peace for Japan and the
world from a future-oriented perspective," she said.

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John Kerry Israel speech: Transcript of demand for two-state solution to Middle East crisis
Law & Politics

this is an issue which I’ve worked on intensely during my time as
Secretary of State for one simple reason: because the two state
solution is the only way to achieve a just and lasting peace between
Israelis and Palestinians. It is the only way to ensure Israel's
future as a Jewish and democratic state, living in peace and security
with its neighbors. It is the only way to ensure a future of freedom
and dignity for the Palestinian people. And it is an important way of
advancing U.S. interests in the region. I would like to explain why
that future is now in jeopardy, and provide some context for why we
could not, in good conscience, stand in the way of a resolution at the
United Nations that makes clear that both sides must act now to
preserve the possibility of peace.

And that’s the bottom line: the vote in the UN was about preserving
the two state solution.

That’s one of the most striking realties about the current situation:
This critical decision about the future – one state or two states — is
effectively being made on the ground every day, despite the expressed
opinion of the majority of the people. The status quo is leading
towards one state and perpetual occupation, but most of the public
either ignores it or has given up hope that anything can be done to
change it. With this passive resignation, the problem only gets worse,
the risks get greater and the choices are narrowed.

The settler population in the West Bank alone – not including East
Jerusalem – has increased by nearly 270,000 since Oslo, including
100,000 just since 2009 when President Obama’s term began. And there
is no point pretending they’re just in large settlement blocs: nearly
90,000 settlers are living east of the separation barrier that was
created by Israel itself, in the middle of what by any reasonable
definition would be the future Palestinian state.

For the first time, it would apply Israeli domestic law to the West
Bank – rather than military law – a major step towards annexation.
When the law passed first reading in the Knesset, one of its chief
proponents said proudly: “Today the Israeli Knesset moved from heading
towards establishing a Palestinian state towards [Israeli] sovereignty
in Judea and Samaria.”


Its a very late extra-time like intervention and I am not sure it will
prove enough to stop the Freight Train that is the One-State Israel
solution that Netanyahu is the Chief Promoter of. This is a very late
intervention and might not be able to frame the topic further than the
Inauguration of President Trump. However, it pulls up the Paradox at
the heart of this matter. Settlement expansion negates a 2 state
solution and promotes a 1 state solution and that 1 state solution if
it is not democratic it is an apartheid one.

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Law & Politics

“The world was gloomy before I won—there was no hope,” he tweeted on
the day after Christmas. “Now the market is up nearly 10% and
Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!” He is both the Prince
of Peace and the savior of the Nasdaq index.

In the weeks since Election Day, Trump has also proved more than once
that it is possible to deepen global anxiety armed with nothing more
than a galling level of presumption and a Twitter account. Set off a
new arms race with Moscow? A trade war with China? Whatever. Type for
a few seconds, press “Tweet,” and the world trembles.

Trump is prepared to insert himself into any argument—even if it is a
century old and endlessly complex—with half a thought and a hundred
and forty characters. The subject this week is the Israeli-Palestinian
question. Just hours before President Obama’s Secretary of State, John
Kerry, was to deliver a valedictory speech warning that the status quo
of settlement-building in the occupied territories is “leading toward
one state or perpetual occupation,” Trump took to Twitter and sent out
a two-stage rocket:

We cannot continue to let Israel be treated with such total disdain
and disrespect. They used to have a great friend in the U.S., but….

… not anymore. The beginning of the end was the horrible Iran deal,
and now this (U.N.)! Stay strong Israel, January 20th is fast

Minutes later, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, tweeted
back his affection (and implicit contempt for Obama): “President-elect
Trump, thank you for your warm friendship and your clear-cut support
for Israel!” Netanyahu put in emojis for the Israeli and American
flags and made sure to add “@IvankaTrump” and “@DonaldJTrumpJr.”

On one level, it seemed as if the traditional language of
diplomacy—stilted, guarded, but respectful of complexity—had finally
devolved into the realm of the sitcom. More seriously, and more
outrageously, Trump, after making appreciative noises about the Obama
Administration’s courtesies and coöperation in the orderly transition
of power—one of the foundations of a functioning democracy —felt free
to violate those norms and insert himself blatantly into foreign
policy before his Inauguration. (“Doing my best to disregard the many
inflammatory President O statements and roadblocks,” he tweeted today.
“Thought it was going to be a smooth transition—NOT!”)

Daniel Kurtzer, who was Ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and
Ambassador to Israel under George W. Bush, told me that he was
appalled both by Trump’s presumption and Netanyahu’s collusion.

“We are in uncharted waters—a President-elect trying to make policy
and a foreign leader conspiring with that President-elect to undercut
a sitting President,” Kurtzer said. “But such are the times. In any
normal situation, we would all be out on the streets protesting and
saying to Trump, ‘We elected you President, but you don’t start until
January 20th.’ But this guy doesn’t care.”

Obama, the avatar of hope, has lost hope. Or, at least he has lost
hope for the near future. As time ran out, he came to believe that
setting down a marker was essential.

“The status quo is leading toward one state, or perpetual occupation,”
Kerry warned.

“Israelis do not need to be lectured about the importance of peace by
foreign leaders,” Netanyahu said in a dismissive speech delivered
shortly after Kerry’s. He said that Kerry had been “almost as
unbalanced” as the U.N. anti-settlement resolution, and, he went on,
what the Secretary of State failed to recognize was that the conflict
with the Palestinians “has always been about Israel’s right to exist.”

In a Trump Administration, Friedman wrote during the campaign in the
Jerusalem Post, Israel will feel “no pressure” from the United States
and “there will be no daylight between the two countries.”

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Israel's Attorney General 'orders criminal investigation into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu'
Law & Politics

Channel 10 claimed Mr Netanyahu would be summoned to give evidence
following a nine month police inquiry into two unspecified matters.

Police have reportedly been investigating allegations of bribery and
fraud against Mr Netanyahu, The Times of Israel reported.

The accusations, believed to relate to alleged donations, have been
dismissed by a spokesperson for the Israeli leader as "nonsense".

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05-DEC-2016 At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded
Law & Politics

At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded. The
intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le
Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands,
is Vladimir Putin.

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Turkey and Russia 'agree terms of Syria ceasefire'
Law & Politics

Turkey and Russia have agreed on a proposal for a general ceasefire in
Syria and will aim to put it into effect by midnight on Wednesday
night, Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has said.


trying to shut out the US and the EU.

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Bitcoin Ends 2016 as the Top Currency as It Nears $1,000 @FortuneMagazine
International Trade

Raise your hand if you saw this coming: Bitcoin not only bounced back
from its 2015 doldrums, but went on a tear that saw it climb around
120% from the start of the year. As of Wednesday afternoon, the
crypto-currency was hovering around $970, and it has a shot of
breaking $1,000 before 2016 is over.

Compare that to some of the other places you could have parked your
money. Investing in equities would have earned you a modest 9% through
the S&P or 7% from the tech heavy NASDAQ. Meanwhile, gold gave up most
it gains from the year to finish up around 6% while oil was up about
50%. (The best performer of the year may have been chip stocks, which
gained over 200%).

Bitcoin was also the clear winner among other currencies, easily
outstripping the approximately 20% gains posted by the Brazilian Real
and the Russian Ruble.

So what explains Bitcoin's banner year? Popular explanations include
the risk of currency controls in China as well as geo-political
instability that is leading people to seek a safe haven for those
assets. Another reason could simply be bitcoin's staying power—the
longer it's around, it seems less like a novelty and more like a bona
fide store of value.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0461
Dollar Index 102.92
Japan Yen 116.33
Swiss Franc 1.0253
Pound 1.2252
Aussie 0.7211
India Rupee 68.115
South Korea Won 1207.73
Brazil Real 3.2847
Egypt Pound 18.8705
South Africa Rand 13.7747

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold INO 1147.71


A tale of two #oil markets: YTD Brent front-month contract
(orange, +50%) and 5-year forward (white, +2%) #flatcurve #OOTT


Crude Oil Chart INO 53.83


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Media reports reveal how ZANU PF recently purchased over 365 double cab vehicles and buses from South Africa for its 2018 election campaign LSE

Media reports reveal how ZANU PF recently purchased over 365 double
cab vehicles and buses from South Africa for its 2018 election
campaign.  In an economy starved of foreign currency, it is anyone’s
guess where the money came from

To stimulate the Zimbabwean economy, the answer lies, not in any
fiscal or monetary interventions but a real shift in governmentality.
This is impossible to achieve under a regime led by a nonagenarian
whose main aim was to maintain power for the better part of his
36-year rule. It is easy to see why the real legacy of the bond notes
is likely to be that of funding ZANU PF activities and elections by
mopping up hard currency to fund import requirements as the economy
plunges further. Whether or not they can sustain this and even crawl
towards 2018, the potential effects of the injection of more bond
notes under pressure to offset the liquidity shortages may eventually
exceed the targeted $70 million and influence the political scene in
unpredictable ways. In short, it appears that bond notes are much less
of an “export incentive” for the economy but have immediately
benefited ZANU PF by providing it with a monopoly over the foreign
currency in circulation and that saved in people’s bank accounts. The
replacement bond notes have not offset cash shortages, but have simply
worsened people’s circumstances as they are forced to accept a
currency they do not trust and whose value is uncertain. Bond notes
increasingly appear as a hidden tax for ZANU PF’s 2018 elections and
an import facility for itself and its elites.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the sale of $850 million in bonds issued by Mozambique WSJ

The move inserts the U.S. into a widening global investigation of
Mozambique’s debt deals, which involved undisclosed loans and military
purchases facilitated by the banks.

In 2013, Credit Suisse AG, Russian bank VTB Group and France’s BNP
Paribas sold the bonds to investors for a Mozambican state-owned
company that said it needed money for tuna fishing. But months later,
Mozambique’s government announced that the funds had also been used to
buy military equipment. Bondholders were also unaware that Credit
Suisse and VTB made $1.2 billion in undisclosed bank loans to other
state-owned companies for additional military purchases until The Wall
Street Journal reported on the deals in April.

The $1.2 billion in additional loans were made by Credit Suisse and
VTB to other companies owned by Mozambique’s intelligence service to
fund other contracts with Mr. Safa’s companies. BNP helped sell the
bonds but didn’t arrange the undisclosed loans with Credit Suisse and
VTB, people familiar with the matter said.

Proceeds from at least some of the debt deals went straight from the
banks to Mr. Safa’s companies, a person familiar with the matter said.
In typical government bond sales, the borrowing country receives the
proceeds, then uses them to pay contractors itself. A spokesman for
Privinvest, Mr. Safa’s holding company, said: “The funds flow and
mechanics was agreed by and between the banks and the customer.”

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Kenya Weekly T-Bills Auction Results; Kenyanwallstreet
Kenyan Economy

*182-Day undersubscribed by 64.32%

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.45
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -9.77% 2016


131.47 -0.44 -0.33%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -22.52% 2016


3,130.93 +17.32 +0.56%

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Kenya's total regional exports drop to Sh119 billion
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s trade with the East African Community (EAC) declined by more
than Sh11 billion in 2016 marking the third year in a row.

Data from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows the country’s exports
shrunk to Sh119.2 billion in the year to October compared to Sh130.5
billion in a similar period last year.

Purchases from the EAC also dropped to Sh31.5 billion from Sh44.5 billion.

Uganda, which has traditionally been the highest consumer of Kenyan
goods recorded the largest decline of Sh10.2 billion, wiping out the
rebound witnessed last year. Unstable South Sudan recorded a drop of
Sh1.8 billion after several Kenyan companies moved out or scaled back

Other neighbouring countries that absorbed less of Kenyan products
include Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan as the Kenya
shilling remained relatively stable. Tanzanian and Somalia purchased
more from Kenya.

Kenyan manufacturers have reported a tough year attributing it to
rising demand in the region for cheaper imports from China. China is
also the largest seller in Kenya with the country importing goods
worth Sh317.4 billion from Beijing in the ten months to October, which
was a drop from last year’s Sh330 billion.

India remained the second largest seller with goods worth Sh215.4
billion sold, which was also a drop from Sh262 billion in 2015.

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Recent data from a GPS collar on one Mara cheetah showed that it traveled 19 kilometers (12 miles) overnight, she said.
Kenyan Economy

Cheetahs often roam alone, though on Monday morning Broekhuis saw a
rare sight: five male cheetahs, together.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2016

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