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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 07th of February 2017
 
Morning,
Africa

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very much looking forward to hosting H.E. John Dramani Mahama, FormerPresident of the Republic of Ghana (2012- 2017) at #Mindspeak ThisSaturday

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The Inspiration for #Mindspeak came via these words which were written at the Entrance to the Mevlana's Mausoleum in Konya which I visited
Africa


“Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again , come ,
come.”

Macro Thoughts

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Lehman Brothers via Holger Zschaepitz;
Africa


i flew to New York once to interview with Lehman Brothers and my last
Interview was with Dick Fuld.

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Overseas Chinese acquisitions worth $75bn cancelled last year @FT
Africa


Chinese overseas deals worth almost $75bn were cancelled last year as
a regulatory clampdown and restrictions on foreign exchange caused 30
acquisitions with European and US groups to fall through.

The figures, which reveal a sevenfold rise in the value of cancelled
deals from about $10bn in 2015, highlight a waning appetite for global
dealmaking by the world’s second-largest economy. But despite more
deals being abandoned, the analysis by law firm Baker McKenzie and
researcher Rhodium shows that Chinese direct investment into the US
and Europe still more than doubled to a record $94.2bn in 2016.

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@Kipto0 Tao
Africa


“People who dream when they sleep at night know of a special kind of
happiness which the world of the day holds not, a placid ecstasy, and
ease of heart, that are like honey on the tongue. They also know that
the real glory of dreams lies in their atmosphere of unlimited
freedom. It is not the freedom of the dictator, who enforces his own
will on the world, but the freedom of the artist, who has no will, who
is free of will. The pleasure of the true dreamer does not lie in the
substance of the dream, but in this: that there things happen without
any interference from his side, and altogether outside his control.
Great landscapes create themselves, long splendid views, rich and
delicate colours, roads, houses, which he has never seen or heard
of...”
― Karen Blixen, Out of Africa

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How to ask for what you want - and get it every time Start with please and thank you, then spoon on the flattery @FT
Africa


I know a woman who can get people to do whatever she wants. She can
make busy executives give her their evenings, their thoughts and their
money. On various occasions she has persuaded me to do things for her,
just as she has enlisted thousands of others.

I ran into her the other day and asked what her secret was. “It is not
hard,” she said. “I just say please and thank you.”

Actually it is not quite as simple as that. Most people know how to
say please and thank you — or think they do. Almost everyone was
taught that before they went to primary school. But hardly anyone has
been taught how to do it properly.

Consider the following perfectly polite email I received recently from
a man I know slightly. It began: “This year we are partnering with XXX
to launch the second annual YYY conference. I know you are busy but we
would love you to host a session on women in business on the
Saturday.”

It then went on at length about the theme of the year and offered a
link to a video of the previous year’s event. “Do let me know if that
is feasible,” it ended.

There is no danger of ever laying it on too thick. There is no level
at which flattery stops working, according to a study by Jennifer
Chatman of the University of California, Berkeley.

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Oval Office Cold Open, Saturday Night Live Alec Baldwin @SNLUpdate Video
Law & Politics


Within 1 hour of this SNL Video Trump tweeted the below

Donald J. Trump I call my own shots, largely based on an accumulation
of data, and everyone knows it. Some FAKE NEWS media, in order to
marginalize, lies!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/828575949268606977

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Rohingya Face 'Campaign of Terror' in Myanmar, U.N. Finds
Law & Politics


Members of Myanmar’s Army and the police have slaughtered hundreds of
men, women and children, gang-raped women and girls, and forced as
many as 90,000 Rohingya Muslims from their homes, according to a
United Nations report released on Friday.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0709
Dollar Index 100.17
Japan Yen 111.92
Swiss Franc 0.9940
Pound 1.2462
Aussie 0.7669
India Rupee 67.295
South Korea Won 1144.87
Brazil Real 3.1160
Egypt Pound 18.4465
South Africa Rand 13.3309

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Made in Africa - the future of production on the continent United Nations University
Africa


For more than 40 years Africa’s industrial development has been
disappointing. In 2013 the average share of manufacturing in GDP in
sub-Saharan Africa was about 10% – the same as in the 1970s. Africa’s
share of global manufacturing has fallen from about 3% in 1970 to less
than 2% in 2013. Manufacturing output per person is about a third of
the average for all developing countries and manufactured exports per
person, a key measure of success in global markets, are about 10% of
the global average for low-income countries. Clearly, Africa needs
more industry to create more good jobs.

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Zimbabwe has started circulating a $5 'bond note', the central bank said
Africa


The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) on Thursday released the purple $5
note to banks, its governor John Mangudya said.

He said $15 million of the new notes had been released, bringing the
total amount of bond notes in circulation to $88 million. Zimbabwe
abandoned its own hyperinflation-hit currency in 2009 in favour of the
US dollar, but a widening trade deficit, lack of foreign investment
and a decline in remittances by Zimbabweans abroad have helped to fuel
foreign currency shortages.

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'Death Spiral' Looms for Zimbabwe Economy as Cash Runs Out Bloomberg
Africa


Zimbabwe’s crippling cash shortage has left a black hole in the
financial system that’s crushing the rest of the economy.

“We deposit the cash and it becomes theoretical, ephemeral,” Mohamed
Salam, who owns several small stores selling building supplies in
Harare, the capital, said in an interview. “My bank balance says it’s
there, but it isn’t. I can make payments electronically to local
suppliers, but I can’t pay foreign suppliers.”

The liquidity squeeze has left companies unable to pay their workers
in cash and foreign suppliers, driving many out of business, and added
to the ranks of more than 3 million people who’ve become economic
exiles. The economy probably shrank 0.3 percent last year and is set
to contract 2.5 percent this year, according to the International
Monetary Fund.

While the Reserve Bank estimates about $4 billion is circulating in
the economy, Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries President Busisa
Moyo says the amount may be as little as $100 million.

“The economy is in what could turn into a death spiral,” Steve Hanke,
a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in
Baltimore who studied the advent of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, said
in an e-mailed response to questions. He blamed the government of
President Robert Mugabe, 92, for being “so incompetent and corrupt and
prone to making bad economic policies.”

“The country has run out of money and we have completely lost the
ability to pay for imports,” said John Robertson, an independent
economist in Harare. “This comes against a backdrop of falling
productivity as companies fail to access vital inputs because there’s
no foreign currency to pay for them. As long as government continues
to do things that discourage both local and foreign investment into
the productive sector, the situation can only get worse.”

In a bid to ease the banknote shortage and discourage cash hoarding,
the government began distributing so-called bond notes in November,
with about $88 million of the dollar-linked securities issued so far
out of a planned $200 million that are backed by a loan from the
African Export-Import Bank. While banks and most large retailers
accept the proxy currency, many small stores, informal traders and
taxi drivers won’t, or price them at as little as 70 percent of their
dollar face value.

“Zimbabwe is no longer a pure dollarized system, but a mixed system,
one that is bound to fail,” he said. “More bond notes will only add
fuel to the demand for hoarding of what is viewed as being the
superior currency and store of value in Zimbabwe, the U.S. dollar. As
the issuance of bond notes increases in response to the hoarding
frenzy, the premium on dollar notes to bond notes will widen and so
will the distortions in the economy.”

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25-JUL-2016 Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the Edge that Hunter S. Thompson described
Africa


Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the edge that
Hunter S. Thompson described thus: “ The edge...there is no honest way
to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are
the ones who have gone over’’.

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"There is no indication as to when the president will return," @MBuhari's spokesman, Femi Adesina, said by phone
Africa


The naira weakened 3 percent to 315.18 against the dollar by 1:45 p.m.
in the commercial hub, Lagos. The black-market exchange rate fell to a
low of 500 per dollar on Friday amid severe foreign-exchange
shortages, according to abokiFX.com.

A civic-group coalition known as Enough Is Enough called for protests
Monday in the capital, Abuja, and Lagos against worsening economic
conditions under Buhari’s administration.

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Fairfax Said to Raise About $500 Million for New Africa Fund
Africa


The Toronto-based insurer sought to raise as much as $1 billion at $10
a share for Fairfax Africa Holdings Corp. in an initial public
offering on the Toronto Stock Exchange, according to a regulatory
filing in December. Fairfax said it had secured as much as $416
million in commitments for the African venture from both its own funds
and partners, including the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement
System, a Canadian pension fund and CI Investments Inc., according to
the filing.

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Kenyan private sector growth indices flat as credit crunch persists @BD_Africa
Africa


According to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey released by
Stanbic Bank and HIS Markit on Monday, the private sector growth
improved slightly, underpinned by a sharp expansion in new work, which
was supported by a steep increase in new export orders.

The survey shows firms raised payroll numbers slightly while there
were signs of ongoing pressure on operating capacity. The seasonally
adjusted index stood at 52, as output increased at a modest pace,
compared to December’s 54.1 points.

On the price front, it rose for the fourth successive month amid a
further increase in input costs.

“In fact, since the legislation to cap interest rates came into effect
in September 2016, we can now see signs of distress within the private
sector as presented by lament about cash shortages,” said Jibran
Qureishi, regional economist East Africa at Stanbic Bank.

“A further slowdown in private sector credit growth and poor weather
conditions will most likely lead to a downward trend in the PMI over
the coming quarter, more so as costs for firms will most probably
rise.”

According to a separate poll, however, business sentiment in Kenya
fell in January, pointing to a relatively soft start to the year.

The Standard Chartered-MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (BSI) fell 4.5
per cent month-on-month to 59.6, leaving it down 6.8 per cent
year-on-year. Four of the five components of the headline indicator
dropped as companies reported slower activity, said the poll.

Of the five components of the headline indicator, four — new orders,
production, employment and supplier delivery times which together
account for 85 per cent of the headline indicator — fell. Only order
backlogs increased.

Companies reported slower production and demand in January: production
fell by 9.9 per cent month on month while productive capacity dropped
3.4 per cent.

Connecting the dots, food prices, the weather and Laikipia @thestarkenya
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX0602.pdf

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The responsible way to own a piece of Kenyan wilderness @FT
Africa


Il Ngwesi is a pioneering example of the sweat equity option. It is a
Maasai-owned-and-run eco lodge with the now familiar trappings of
wealthy people getting away from it all: rustic furniture, mud-wall
type construction and an unfussy approach to household management. It
lets rooms at $345 per person per night, all inclusive apart from
alcohol. Il Ngwesi represents the kind of community tourism investment
model that could be replicated. Investors may see returns in 15 to 30
years dependent on occupancy rates, according to Will Jones, my guide
for this trip. He is an east African tourism expert involved in
Kenya’s conservancy work who is attempting to roll out the model
across northern Kenya by creating an impact investment vehicle, Wild
Philanthropy.

Il Ngwesi’s foundation depended on trust and mutual benefit between
Olekinyaga’s community and neighbouring landowner and conservationist
Ian Craig who suggested forming a conservancy and tourist lodge.
Michael Dyer, Craig’s cousin and a landowner who has helped set up a
number of community-owned conservancies, was also heavily involved and
helped bring in the main funding from the Liz Claiborne Art Ortenberg
Foundation.

“Ian Craig brought the idea to my dad in ’94 to ’96,” says Olekinyaga.
“They were the same age and they had grown up together. The community
was suspicious because of the colonial history and said, ‘If you want
to build a lodge, go and build it on your land’. But Ian Craig took us
round the country to lots of meetings and raised money from the EU, US
and the Kenya Wildlife Service to build the lodge. Finally the elders
came together for a meeting under the acacia tree. It was a difficult
decision but we agreed to go ahead.”

Some landowners, such as Dyer, run a “livestock-to-market” programme,
which helps local people by fattening community-owned livestock. When
I visited Borana, Dyer’s estate in the Kenyan highlands, some of
Olekinyaga’s community livestock were grazing there as part of the
programme.

“Ah, but that is because Borana is a rare success story,” says Jones.

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ISS Today: Kenya's opposition needs more than a coalition to win the polls Daily Maverick
Africa


In elections the world over, the odds are usually stacked against
opposition parties. One way to improve those odds is for opposition
parties to present a united front. But for this approach to work in
Kenya as it did in 2002, the parties involved – and their ambitious
leaders – have to realise that simply forming a coalition is not
enough. Without a credible leader, a clear strategy, and an
inspirational message – and with only just seven months to go until
voting day – Nasa risks handing the election victory to the Jubilee
Party on a platter

Conclusions


They need to unite and unite behind a figure like Adama Barrow.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.815
Africa


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.21% 2017
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

125.06 +0.87 +0.70%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.01% 2017
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

2,867.39 +5.00 +0.17%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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