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Wednesday 08th of February 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Trump called Mike Flynn at 3 a.m. to ask him whether a strong or weak dollar is good for the economy, HuffPost says Law & Politics |
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump was confused about the dollar: Was it a strong one that’s good for the economy? Or a weak one?
So he made a call ― except not to any of the business leaders Trump brought into his administration or even to an old friend from his days in real estate. Instead, he called his national security adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, according to two sources familiar with Flynn’s accounts of the incident.
Flynn has a long record in counterintelligence but not in macroeconomics. And he told Trump he didn’t know, that it wasn’t his area of expertise, that, perhaps, Trump should ask an economist instead.
Trump was not thrilled with that response ― but that may have been a function of the time of day. Trump had placed the call at 3 a.m., according to one of Flynn’s retellings ― although neither the White House nor Flynn’s office responded to requests for confirmation about that detail.
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Donald Trump, Paper Tiger @bv Law & Politics |
Oh, yes, Trump is clearly capable of tweeting all sorts of nasty things about those he considers his enemies. He won't address their arguments; he'll level petty, personal attacks. No doubt those aren't any fun to deal with.
And yet, where's the evidence of serious political damage, either from Trump attacks or from Trump voters rallying to their hero?
Contrary to Trump's braggadocio about revenge, the reality seems to be that he doesn't have enough of an attention span to really pursue his enemies, and he's so susceptible to flattery that anyone who really wants to shake the president's anger can't find it very difficult to do so.
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President Trump silent on Africa Trump's views on Africa remain largely a mystery @CNN @EleniGiokos Africa |
Two weeks into his presidency and Trump has rattled many relationships, from upsetting Asian trading partners to rocky relations with Mexico. And the latest – banning people from seven countries from entering the United States – included three African nations: Libya, Sudan and Somalia.
But the Trump administration’s views on Africa remain largely a mystery.
Ronak Gopaldas, Head of Country Risk for Rand Merchant Bank (SA), says, “Africa is not likely to feature strongly on the priority agenda unless there’s a return on investment, and we know Donald Trump is a business man and that’s the paradigm he uses. Africa’s economic and geopolitical value will depend on that perception.”
A different approach by his predecessor Barack Obama who initiated a $7 billion Power Africa plan to bring electricity to the continent. George W. Bush introduced PEPFAR, providing billions to fight AIDS and tuberculosis. He also quadrupled assistance to sub-Saharan Africa.
It’s anticipated that President Trump will have other issues on his mind, and this might just spell bad news for the continent.
Aly Khan-Satchu, CEO of Rich Management in Kenya, says, “Some African leaders think it’s a get out of jail free card. Tillerson and Trump won’t be focusing on human rights, they’ll be focusing on other interests.”
There’s also the African Growth and Opportunities Act – AGOA – a preferential trade pact allowing African countries to export thousands of products to the U.S., tax-free. Trump can’t sign this pact away easily like he did with Trans-Pacific Partnership; Congress signed AGOA into legislation until 2025.
Khan-Satchu says, “We’re expecting Trump to be transactional, business minded and all about counter-terrorism, but we want to see AGOA remain”
U.S. – Africa trade totaled $37 billion in 2015 – down around 30% from the previous year, falling behind China and Europe. Developmental aid to sub-Saharan Africa in 2015 was $6 billion.
Ike Chioke MD from Afrinvest West Africa in Nigeria says, “It will be a challenging time for Africa when Donald Trump goes ahead in putting America first. Because that nationalistic, protectionist, approach has multiple implications”
Kenyan Cabinet Secretary of Tourism Najib Balala says, “Africa needs to reflect – it’s the right time with all the new challenges in the world”
As the U.S. takes a more insular view – it seems Africa might do some inward reflecting of its own.
Bob Collymore, CEO of Safaricom in Kenya, says, “Because of poor leadership for decades and because businesses and governments have colluded to leave people behind, that is why we’ve ended up with this kind of leadership and Donald Trump is not the only one…Africa needs to be more self-sufficient as a continent. We import everything. The continent imports 30% of the food that it eats, despite having 60% of arable land in the world”
Just as President Trump tries to spur jobs and growth – Africa too, needs focus on shoring up local industries in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Eleni Giokos, CNN
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Fueled by Bribes, Somalia's Election Seen as Milestone of Corruption New York Times Africa |
Politicians have been peeling off wads of hundred dollar bills to buy votes. Others have shown up for parliamentary races standing next to a political nobody who was bribed or coerced into running against them, to make the race look fair. In one case, the mysterious candidate was the politician’s maid.
This week, Somalia, which has languished without a functioning central government for more than 25 years and has been propped up by billions of dollars of American aid, is holding an innovative, closely watched presidential election that United Nations officials have billed as a “milestone.”
But several analysts, investigators and some Western diplomats say the election has turned out to be a milestone of corruption, one of the most fraudulent political events in Somalia’s history — and that’s saying something, given that the country is already ranked by Transparency International, a global anticorruption organization, as the most corrupt on earth.
Outside forces like Turkey, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are widely believed to have been buying off presidential candidates to land juicy business deals, spread a harsh version of Islam or spy on American forces.
The entire process has been so bad, several analysts said, that the Shabab militant group, one of the deadliest Islamist organizations in the world, isn’t even trying to derail the vote because the corruption free-for-all almost makes the militants look upstanding by comparison.
“This election has been awesome for the Shabab,” said Mohamed Mubarak, who runs a Somali anti-corruption organization, Marqaati, which means “witness.” “The government loses even more legitimacy and the Shabab has a chance to buy a seat!”
“The Somali government has no authority, no popular support, no monopoly on violence,” said Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, a former minister of planning now running for president. “It’s a fake state.”
“The president’s a hyena,” said Mohamed Said Mohamed, a fish seller by the crumbled seashore. “These guys are taking bribes of $100,000 when most of us can’t afford a plate of spaghetti.”
Food is a big worry right now. Somalia is headed into a drought, which could lead to a famine this spring.
Conclusions
The estimate is that $20m has been spent. I reckon its at least 10x and probably a lot higher than even that.
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Buhari's Economic Plan Could Be Make or Break for Nigeria BBGAfrica Africa |
With discontent mounting and Nigeria seeking to raise international debt, lenders and investors are waiting for President Muhammadu Buhari to announce a plan that could determine whether he keeps his promises to boost the economy and create millions of jobs.
Buhari’s economic blueprint for the next four years, due to be released this month, will aim to lift West Africa’s biggest economy from its worst slump in more than two decades and boost the annual economic growth rate to at least 7 percent by 2020, Budget and Planning Minister Udo Udoma told reporters and investors in the capital, Abuja, on Feb. 6.
The recovery and growth plan for 2017 to 2020 comes after Buhari forced the central bank to maintain a currency peg for more than a year, curbing foreign investment, while the importers of certain raw materials and equipment are still banned from accessing dollars, denting manufacturing output. Buhari approved the 2016 budget almost five months after the start of the year, causing delays in spending and adding to the woes of an economy hurt by declining oil prices and output.
“This is the last opportunity,” Ayodele Akinwunmi, head of research at Lagos-based FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd., said on Tuesday. “If it has taken them two years to develop a plan, I don’t want to believe it won’t work, otherwise it will be total failure for this government.”
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"For Uhuru to win, he needs two key voting blocks -- one such block is facing a lot of antagonism, this is the Rift Valley" Kenyan Economy |
“For Uhuru to win, he needs two key voting blocks -- one such block is facing a lot of antagonism, this is the Rift Valley,” said Ndung’u Wainaina, a political analyst based in Nairobi, the capital. “In 2017, it’s not looking like he will get this block the way he got it in 2013.”
While Ruto was able to deliver “a lion’s share” of the Rift Valley vote in the 2013 election, his contribution this year will be reduced by a material margin, said Dismas Mokua, an independent political analyst based in Nairobi.
“This time his support will reduce significantly, by as much as a third, because he has not been able to build a consensus among the leaders of his community in the Rift Valley and he has created unnecessary political enemies,” Mokua said. “There will be four counties of the 14 in the Rift Valley that will cause a challenge for the deputy president.”
“I foresee Moi’s son and Isaac Ruto finding some fusion in the south Rift and working together against the deputy president,” said Barrack Muluka, an independent political analyst based in Nairobi. “The question is whether they will ultimately vote against Uhuru in the election.”
Conclusions
The Opposition need to coalesce behind an Adama Barrow type figure and leverage a type of 2008 Obama vintage strategy.
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Kansai Paint agrees to buy African businesses @FT Kenyan Economy |
Japan’s Kansai Paint has agreed to buy three east African paint companies to tap into one of the world’s fastest-growing regions as part of its global expansion.
The company’s South African subsidiary Kansai Plascon Africa is to acquire Sadolin Kenya, Sadolin Uganda and Sadolin Tanzania, although it would not reveal how much the deal would be worth. But people with knowledge of the purchases said it was the largest corporate acquisition in east Africa for more than two years.
Estimated 2016 combined revenues at the east African companies, which are owned by a conglomerate of regionally based families, were $87m. Kansai Plascon’s estimated 2016 revenues were R4.1bn ($309m). The three companies pay royalties to the Sadolin Group, owned by Dutch multinational Akzo Nobel, to use the name.
Amid slowing growth in Japan, Hiroshi Ishino, president of the Tokyo-listed Kansai Paint since 2013, has promised to expand the company through acquisitions into one of the top three coatings groups in the world.
Farid Masood, chief executive of Kansai Plascon, said the company was “very optimistic on the African growth story”.
“We’re looking at Africa’s growing middle class, increased infrastructure spending and the paint business is relevant across all sectors,” he said. “Yes, there will be short-term hiccups but we’re in for the long haul.”
The purchases are part of Kansai’s strategy to diversify away from auto-coating and into areas such as paints for trains and industrial machinery, which are strong growth areas in emerging economies. It acquired Austria’s Helios Group for $613m last year.
Kansai tried to buy the three east African companies several years ago but the attempt got “lost in translation”, according to one person with knowledge of the deal. Mr Masood said he “reignited Kansai’s interest” when he took charge of Kansai Plascon last August.
Mr Masood said Kansai Plascon had also opened a business in Nigeria. “We plan to use this as a platform to expand into Ghana, Senegal and elsewhere in west Africa,” he said.
The acquisition comes as Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, looks to raise Japan’s profile in Africa, particularly in the face of increasing Chinese competition. He led a business delegation to Nairobi last year for a Japan-Africa conference and promised tens of billions of dollars of investment.
Aly-Khan Satchu, an investment consultant in Nairobi, predicted “more of this kind of activity” in the region. “A lot of family-owned businesses have maxed out and need investment to take them to the next level,” he said.
Citi acted as financial adviser to Kansai Plascon.
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N.S.E Today |
The Financial Times's John Aglionby reported overnight that Japan’s Kansai Paint has agreed to buy three east African paint companies. The company’s South African subsidiary Kansai Plascon Africa is to acquire Sadolin Kenya, Sadolin Uganda and Sadolin Tanzania, although it would not reveal how much the deal would be worth. But people with knowledge of the purchases said it was the largest corporate acquisition in east Africa for more than two years. Estimated 2016 combined revenues at the east African companies, which are owned by a conglomerate of regionally based families, were $87m. Aly-Khan Satchu, an investment consultant in Nairobi, predicted “more of this kind of activity” in the region. “A lot of family-owned businesses have maxed out and need investment to take them to the next level,” he said. “The total cumulative figure for retail spending in 2016 is $17.62 billion (Sh1.8 trillion) which can be allocated across different channels based on 30 per cent supermarkets, 67 per cent traditional retail, and three per cent special channels. Overall, retail spending accounts for 30 per cent of Kenya’s GDP,” said P&G. The Kenya Interbank Transaction Switch, which has been developed by the Kenya Bankers Association (KBA), will, among other services, facilitate real-time transfer of money between banks without going through mobile money platforms that are owned by the three telecom firms. The Nairobi NSE20 rallied +0.90% to regain the 2900 level and close at 2908.87 to close at a 2 week High. The NSE20 has been on a red hot streak in February and is +3.33% in February. The Nairobi All Share firmed +0.03 points to close at 125.03. The Kenya Shilling was well-behaved at 103.70
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea and Coffee was upticked +3.93% to close at 18.50 and on good volume of 317,700 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
The News around the Kenya Interbank Transaction Switch bore down on the Safaricom share price which corrected -1.34% to close at 18.40 and 17.107m shares worth 315.25m. M-Pesa is a Phenomenon and I just do not see its progress and or its position being meaningfully challenged. Safaricom sits at -3.96% in 2017.
Deacons slumped by the daily maximum to close -9.67% lower at 4.20. Deacons is -30.57% in 2017 which is a meaningful drop I am sure you will agree.
News of cut-backs in the Media sector remain unremitting. Nation Media shaved off 50 cents to close at 75.50 and is -18.81% in 2017 following on an annus horribles for shareholders in 2016. Standard Group did not trade and is actually +21.21% in 2017.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
What is absolutely clear to Banking Investors is that there is no quick repeal of the interest Rate Bill and that this interest rate corridor is the New Normal and this time for a FY in 2017. It was this belated realisation which was the catalyst for the steep sell-off in Banking shares in January to deeply oversold levels, from which we are now rebounding. Bank shares remain in negative territory YTD. Investors need to appreciate the shape of the Banking landscape and its a Darwinian one so you have to pick the Winners and avoid the Losers. Barclays Bank was a big Winner at the Bourse and rallied an eye-popping +4.97% to close at 8.45 and traded 2.138m shares. Barclays Bank has in fact rallied +16.107% in February. I did say it was egregiously priced below 8.00. Equity Bank rallied +3.84% to close at 27.00 and on robust volume action of 9.693m shares worth 261.71m narrowing its Year-To-Date downdraft to -10.00%. KCB Group rallied +2.97% to close at 26.00 and traded 6.607m shares worth 171.781m. KCB has narrowed its Year-To-Date Loss to -9.56%. Diamond Trust Bank firmed +1.89% to close at 108.00 and traded 420,700 shares worth 45.436m. DTB is -8.47% in 2017. COOP Bank rallied +3.79% to close at 12.30 on light trading. I&M went the other way and closed -1.97% at 74.50 and traded 379,200 shares. I&M is -17.22% in 2017. National Bank closed at 6.00 and is -16.66% in 2017.
Centum firmed +2.20% to close at 34.75 and traded 1.067m shares. Centum remains -6.08% through 2017.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
The News that Japan's Kansai Paint had bought Sadolin Paints out [see above] encouraged buyers into Crown Paints which closed +7.14% at 45.00 an 11 week High. Crown Paints is +7.14% in 2017.
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