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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 23rd of February 2017
 
Morning,
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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This Saturday 25th February @InterConNairobi #Mindspeak hosts @sidchat1 - This is Sid Entry Free Bring your Mind
Africa


SDGs, Kenya's Youth Bulge and potential for a demographic dividend as
well as achieving universal health coverage in Kenya.

Siddharth Chatterjee is the United Nations Resident Coordinator and
the UNDP Resident Representative to Kenya.
He is a feminist and a passionate humanitarian and development worker.
His service in the United Nations and the Red Cross movement has
spanned over 20 years. He has served in some fragile and difficult
parts of the world, driven by a desire to make a real difference in
the lives of the most vulnerable.
A highlight of his career was to get 3551 child soldiers demobilised
from the Sudan People's Liberation Army. ''This was the largest ever
demobilisation ever done during an ongoing conflict. Here is his TEDx
talk. (Ps hyperlink) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j964XqRWfNI
 A consummate writer on human development issues, he has a blog in
Huffington Post and Reuters. His articles have also featured in the
Guardian, CNN, Al Jazeera, Inter Press Service as well as in Kenyan
and Indian mainstream media.
His early career was in the Indian Army Special Forces and was
decorated for gallantry by the President of India.
He is a graduate of the Woodrow Wilson School for Public and
International Affairs at Princeton University, USA.
Here is his full bio.( ps hyperlink)  http://siddharthchatterjee.me/

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@spectatorindex GDP (nominal) Africa: $2.3 trillion California: $2.3 trillion
Africa


Fed minutes showed officials prepared to raise rates “fairly soon”
though confident they would not have to rush to tighten.

Home Thoughts

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Africa


“Every hundred feet the world changes” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

“we interpret life at moments of the deepest desperation.” ― Roberto Bolaño

read more




"We are here now" @NikGowing #BetterBiz ~ Policy by Tweet is deeply scary
Law & Politics


''This is a new Reality, this is not a blip'' @NikGowing #BetterBiz

read more



New Spratly buildings to house long-range missiles: US officials
Law & Politics


Building concrete structures with retractable roofs on Subi, Mischief
and Fiery Cross reefs means they will house surface to air missile
batteries said a U.S. intelligence official under the condition of
anonymity. Photo: US Navy/Reuters

Conclusions

One of 37 flash-points in the World today as per Ban Ki Moon.

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Maybe Trump Is Just a Weak President @bv
Law & Politics


President Donald Trump is having a slower start. He has not signed
major legislation yet. The White House has not put out a legislative
plan on three of Trump’s main campaign issues: health care,
infrastructure and tax reform. He has been slower in filling
government positions than his predecessors, too. And the president’s
highest-profile executive orders, on immigration, have been stayed by
federal courts.

For congressional Republicans, the problem with Trump may not be that
he is an authoritarian strongman, as so many of his critics say. It’s
that he is, by the standards to which we have become accustomed, a
weak president.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0555
Dollar Index 101.26
Japan Yen 113.25
Swiss Franc 1.0101
Pound 1.2435
Aussie 0.7691
India Rupee 66.855
South Korea Won 1136.44
Brazil Real 3.0640
Egypt Pound 15.8197
South Africa Rand 12.9610

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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.0561
World Currencies


Europe’s currency rebounded, after briefly falling below $1.05 for the
first time in more than six weeks

Commodities

read more










Nigeria steps nearer to devaluation with central bank dollar sale
Africa


Nigeria's central bank took a step nearer to outright devaluation of
the naira currency on Tuesday, providing 23 commercial banks with a
combined $370.8 million at forward exchange rates up to 15 percent
weaker than the official rate.

read more



Somalia is a leader in mobile money but still wants to print its first cash notes in 25 years @qzafrica cc @Lattif
Africa


The collapse of the Somali government in 1991 saw the rise of unique
political, economic and social outfits, all clambering to fill the
void of government institutions. One of them was the emergence of a
nonconforming monetary system, controlled by warlords and rogue
businessmen, who contracted foreign printers and imported counterfeit
money. This left the Somali economy in shambles, largely dependent on
dollars for trade, and effectively created a freewheeling “economy
without state.”

After a few years of relative stability and successful elections,
Somalia’s new government hopes to reverse all that. Buoyed by donors,
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the country
now wants to resume printing banknotes this year.

The central bank currently oversees only six banks and 12 money
transfer companies, the majority of which are located in the capital.

To make the process of printing and introducing the currency succeed,
Aly-Khan Satchu, a Kenyan investment adviser, says that the central
bank will have to start building strong “collaborative partnerships
with trusted institutions across the globe.” Otherwise, he warned,
we’ll see a repeat of tumbling currency crises like the one in
Nigeria.

The only currency note available in Somalia is the 1,000 shilling.
Smaller denominations like the 500, 50 and 20 shillings stopped
circulating either immediately after the war or over the years. The
new banknotes are expected to be in small denominations, and the
government will be expected to clarify the purchasing power of these
new notes in comparison to the already circulating ones—98% of which
are considered fake by the IMF.

Somalia’s government will also have to do broad consultations with the
private and public sectors and assure investors on what this will mean
for trade and business. Imports account for more than two-thirds of
Somalia’s $6 billion GDP, with $1.4 billion of that coming through
remittances from Somalis living in the diaspora.

Somalia has one of the most active mobile money markets in the world,
with 37% of the population having mobile accounts compared to just 8%
with a financial institution, according to the World Bank’s Global
Financial Inclusion Database.

By introducing a new currency notes, the government hopes to wrestle
the grip mobile companies like Hormuud has on the economy. The
e-payment transactions are also all made in dollars, which makes these
telecom companies owners of large foreign exchange reserves. Satchu
says that with careful preparation and planning, Somalia has the
opportunity to leapfrog into a cashless future. “I think mobile
increases transparency,” he said, “and it would be a bad, flat-out
mistake to try and quash the mobile component of the economy.”

read more


Trump, Tillerson and the resource curse FT Subscriber
Africa


Companies no longer need to declare payments to autocratic regimes

A few hours after Rex Tillerson was confirmed as US secretary of state
this month, he received some excellent news. The House of
Representatives voted to nullify a rule that, as head of ExxonMobil,
he had vigorously opposed. Known informally as the “publish what you
pay” rule, it obliges oil and mining companies to disclose payments
they make to foreign states. Scrapping it is a big victory for Big
Oil. It is another sign that a Donald Trump presidency means not so
much draining the swamp as handing over the swamp to the crocodiles.

The regulation in question implemented Section 1504 of the Dodd-Frank
Act, which was signed into law in 2010 but has still not yet taken
effect because of stalling tactics by the American Petroleum
Institute, a lobby group. Sponsored by former Senator Richard Lugar, a
Republican, and Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat, the idea was to stop
the extractive industry from making secret payments to the often
autocratic regimes that control oil, gas and minerals. Mr Trump duly
nullified it on February 14, though the Valentine’s Day massacre was
little noticed.

As anti-bribery measures go, 1504 is frankly a bit flimsy. Governments
with kleptocratic intent would not find it hard to circumvent. Still,
campaigners considered it much better than nothing. As Messrs Lugar
and Cardin point out, mere passage of the rule prompted similar
regulation in Europe and Canada, obliging four-fifths of the world’s
largest oil, gas and mining companies to come into the open.

In Europe it includes majors such as Shell, BP and Total, as well as
Russia’s Rosneft and Gazprom. That demolishes arguments by the US oil
lobby that 1504 puts them at a competitive disadvantage. As Mr Lugar
writes, “With Europe and Canada in the same disclosure system, the
playing field is now level.”

Underlying “publish what you pay” was the hope it might help countries
avoid the “resource curse”, which has so often made the discovery of
oil or gold a blight rather than a blessing — if you’re not running
the country, that is. Take the case of Equatorial Guinea, the “Kuwait
of Africa”, where ExxonMobil is the dominant producer. The central
African country is run by Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who grabbed
power from his murderous uncle in 1979 and has held on tightly ever
since.

Since oil was discovered, per capita income has rocketed to nearly
$40,000 at purchasing power parity, the highest of any sub-Saharan
African country. That comes as scant consolation to the three-quarters
of the population who live in abject poverty on less than $2 a day. A
country that on paper is nearly as rich as Britain has a life
expectancy of just 58, only a fraction better than war-ravaged South
Sudan.

By 2001, Equatorial Guinea accounted for about 8 per cent of
ExxonMobil’s worldwide production of hydrocarbons, according to Steve
Coll in his book Private Empire. Once payments were made to Mr
Obiang’s government there was no knowing where they might end up. But
you could guess. In 2004, US authorities exposed secret accounts held
in Washington worth millions of dollars belonging to members of the
Obiang family.

In 2014, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, Mr Obiang’s son and
vice-president, was obliged to surrender a Malibu mansion and luxury
cars in a settlement with US authorities for what they alleged was
more than $70m in corrupt proceeds. He is on trial in absentia in
France for allegedly illicit wealth, including a Paris villa worth an
estimated $100m. Mr Obiang says he obtained everything legally.

For those scratching a living in Equatorial Guinea this must be hard
to swallow. Rosa Whitaker, former assistant US trade representative
for Africa, says people are entitled to know how much the state is
receiving for national patrimony. “I don’t understand why the oil
companies are opposing it,” she says.

Like Mr Trump’s missing tax returns, the assumption will be they have
something to hide. Before he was appointed secretary of state, Mr Coll
wrote of Mr Tillerson’s elevation that it would confirm the assumption
of many “that American power is best understood as a raw, neocolonial
exercise in securing resources.”

If ExxonMobil bags a big project in Mozambique or, better yet, Russia,
people will ask what it paid and whether Mr Tillerson smoothed the way
— despite his pledge to recuse himself from such issues. As Jeffrey
Sachs, an economist and author of Building the New American Economy,
argues, Mr Trump is putting lobbyists out of business. “He’s just
handing finance over to Goldman Sachs,” he says of Gary Cohn’s
appointment as director of the National Economic Council. “And he’s
just handing State over to ExxonMobil.”

read more


Shares in Kenya's 11 publicly traded banks have dropped as much as a third since Kenyatta signed the law Aug. 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Africa


The slowdown in private-sector credit growth is “not a favorable
direction of travel, we need to see what to do to arrest that
position,” Awori said. “When those changes will happen is difficult to
tell.”

read more


@Barclays_Kenya reports FY16 EPS -12.258% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           8.30
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        45,081,748,800
EPS:             1.36
PE:               6.102

FY Kenya Government securities 48.698795b vs. 45.805987b +6.315%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 168.509529b vs. 145.378553b +15.911%
FY Customers’ deposits 178.179795b vs. 165.082830b +7.934%
FY Total shareholders’ fund 42.388242b vs. 39.716371b +6.727%
FY Total interest income 28.121189b vs. 25.285748b +11.214%
FY Total interest expenses [5.786958b] vs. [4.875227b] +18.701%
FY Net interest income 22.334231b vs. 20.410521b +9.425%
FY Total operating income 31.684112b vs. 29.461760b +7.543%
FY Loan loss provision [3.927137b] vs. [1.765778b] +122.403%
FY Total operating expenses [20.831705b] vs. [17.388180b] +19.804%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 10.852407b vs. 12.073580b -10.114%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 7.399396b vs. 8.400582b -11.918%
EPS 1.36 vs. 1.55 -12.258%
Total dividend 1.00/ share vs. 1.00/ share
Total NPL and advances 8.782749b vs. 3.881678b +126.262%
Liquidity ratio 28.3% vs. 34.1% -5.800%

FY Loans and Advances [net] to Customers +15.91% to 168.509529b.
FY Total Assets +7.811% to 259.692012b
Customer Deposits +7.933% at 178.179795b
Final FY Dividend 80cents a share

Jeremy says "We see a world where Digital Banking is Key" #BBKFY2016
Barclays Bank Kenya Gross NPLs Ratio increased to 6.5% from 3.6% vs an
industry average of 9.1% as of Q3 2016 #BBKFY2016
"2016 is one of those years we will never forget in a short while"
SAYS Barclays Bank Kenya CEO #BBKFY2016

Conclusions

The Dividend will underpin the price.

read more



BAT reports FY 16 EPS -14.912% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           909.00
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        90,900,000,000
EPS:             42.34
PE:                 21.469

FY Earnings for the year ended 31st December 2016 versus through December 2015
FY Gross revenue 36.676b vs. 35.817b +2.398%
FY Excise duty and VAT [16.826b] vs. [13.560b] +24.086%
FY Net revenue 19.850b vs. 22.257b -10.815%
FY Cost of operations [13.306b] vs. [14.584b] -8.763%
FY Profit from operations 6.544b vs. 7.673b -14.714%
FY Finance costs [295m] vs. [534m] -44.757%
FY Profit before tax [5.911b] vs. [7.139b] -17.201%
FY Profit after tax 4.234b vs. 4.976b -14.912%
FY Gain on revaluation of property 616m vs. –
Total dividend 43/ share vs. 49.50/ share -13.131%
Basic and diluted EPS 42.34 vs. 49.76 -14.912%
Shareholders’ funds 8.797b vs. 8.853b -0.633%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year [1.687b] vs. [1.612b] -4.653%

Company Commentary

Gross Revenue increased by 2% to 36.7b.
significantly higher Excise Duty following the implementation of a
single tier Excise regime on 1st December 2015
Excise Duty and VAT increased by 24% to 16.8b
Cost of operations reduced by 9% to 13.3b
H2 Re-organisation cost 338m
616m gain in comprehensive income
Final Dividend 39.50 per share [3.50 paid as interim]

Conclusions

Gross Revenue growth +2.398%
Played Defense effectively taking -8.763% of cost out Year on Year.
Final Dividend 39.50 = 4.34% worth of Yield.
defensively oriented results but a very solid defensive game.

read more


East African Portland Cement @EAPCC reports H1 16 Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           30.00
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        2,700,000,000
EPS:             46.06
PE:                 0.651

A key provider of Cement and Cement products in Kenya for over 70 years.

H1 Revenue 3.722059b vs. 4.620517b -19.445%
H1 Cost of sales [3.074533b] vs. [3.767486b] -18.393%
H1 Gross profit 647.526m vs. 853.031m -24.091%
H1 Other operating income 0.340m vs. 34.648m
H1 Administration and selling expenses [1.062116b] vs. [1.167360b] -9.016%
H1 [Loss]/ profit from operating activities [414.250m] vs. [279.681m] -48.115%
H1 Foreign exchange [losses]/ gains 186.241m vs. [187.595m] +199.278%
H1 Finance costs [307.308m] vs. [279.680m] +9.878%
H1 [Loss]/ profit after tax [248.121m] vs. [528.259m] -53.030%
H1 EPS [2.43] vs. [5.91] -58.883%
Total Equity 17.728178b vs. 17.946760b -1.218%
Cash & cash equivalents as at 31st December [1.502873b] vs. [372.098m] -303.892%
No interim dividend

Conclusions

Core business continues to deteriorate.
However its Land rich.

read more





 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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