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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 22nd of March 2017
 
Afternoon,
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Dollar bulls are throwing in the towel as Trump wagers evaporate @markets [HIT THE EXIT]
Africa


Home Thoughts


I sometimes wonder if the ''US'' think that but for an accident of
Birth They could have been the ''THEM'

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Have You met @FaithKanja?
Africa


She has been ''virtually'' seducing me with her wonderful and
delightful Photography from the Kenyan coast and recently of course
she has been around Wasini Island.

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The very best of Wasini's sunsets to calm your day's chaos @FaithKanja
Africa


The harbour of Shimoni, 3 km. diagonal across the channel between the
island and the mainland which contains the northward bound
East-African current of the Indian Ocean coming from Cape Delgado in
the north of Mozambique near the border with Tanzania. is deep enough
for a natural port and the only one in this area for oceangoing
trading dhows and fishing vessels. It is the stopping off point to
reach Wasini island, and is some 75 km south of Mombasa. Port
immigration and customs facilities are present and provide services
for those trade dhows and people arriving from Tanzania, especially
the island Pemba, or further afield. Twice a week there is a passenger
transport service by boat to Weyte at Pemba; also it is possible to
board a cargo dhow for payment to that harbour.

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Syrian UN Envoy: Putin Sent Message to Israel That Its Freedom to Act in Syria Is Over
Law & Politics


Russia has sent a clear message to Israel that the rules of the game
have changed in Syria and its freedom to act in Syrian skies is over,
Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations said on Sunday night.

“Putin sent a clear message,” said Bashar Jaafari, speaking on Syrian
television. “The fact is that the Israeli ambassador [to Russia] was
summoned for a conversation only a day after he submitted his
credentials [to the Russian Foreign Ministry last Thursday], and was
told categorically that this game is over.”

Conclusions

Bibi needs to be careful that Vladimir does not decide to show-boat his S-400s

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JAMES COMEY'S REMARKABLE FIVE HOURS ON CAPITOL HILL New Yorker
Law & Politics


Marcus Aurelius had a servant follow him around and every time
Aurelius received a compliment the servant had to whisper in his ear,
"You’re just a man… just a man,” to keep him humble.

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05-DEC-2016 :: my starting point is the election of President Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference
Law & Politics


my starting point is the election of President Trump because hindsight
will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme
of interference, mostly digital.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0799
Dollar Index 99.79
Japan Yen 111.56
Swiss Franc 0.9938
Pound 1.2480
Aussie 0.7663
India Rupee 65.495
South Korea Won 1122.09
Brazil Real 3.0882
Egypt Pound 18.1707
South Africa Rand 12.6977

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#Apple share hit fresh high as comopany introduces cheapest iPad yet, special edition red iPhone @Schuldensuehner
World Currencies


Here's to the crazy ones. The rebels. The troublemakers. The ones who
see things differently. While some may see them as the crazy ones, we
see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can
change the world, are the ones who do.

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Gold 6 month INO 1247.85 [Going higher]
Commodities


28-NOV-2016 I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any
circumstances through 2017.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX2811.pdf

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Somalia's new president names 26-minister cabinet
Africa


President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed - better known by his nickname,
Farmajo - was sworn in last month after unseating Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud, whose administration faced public and Western criticism for
corruption scandals.

A dual U.S.-Somali citizen and a former prime minister, Mohamed has
promised to tackle hunger, corruption and violence in Somalia, which
has been mired in civil war for a quarter of a century.

On Tuesday, he named Abdirahman Duale Beyle as his finance minister
and Yusuf Garaad Omar as foreign minister. Beyle, a former economist
at the African Development Bank, served as foreign minister from 2014
to 2015. Omar, a dual British-Somali national, was head of the BBC's
Somali language service.

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@issafrica Africa must resist hawks & securocrats who urge brutal, military-led counter-terrorism policies. ISS for @Newsweek
Africa


This is a crucial moment in the fight against militancy in Africa.
With the rise of insular, populist governments in the developed world,
and a distinct hardening in rhetoric from world leaders—the former
U.S. administration of Barack Obama, although it did not always
practice what it preached, recognized the need for a nuanced, holistic
response to terrorism—Africa will continue to be a major theater in
the war on terror.

But Africa cannot afford to get counter-terrorism wrong again, and it
must resist the hawks and securocrats who urge African governments to
repeat the brutal, military-led counter-terrorism policies that have
failed so spectacularly over the last three decades. Instead, a
holistic, multi-level approach that addresses the real concerns of
citizens and engages civil society, community leaders and religious
institutions at all levels of society is required. It’s not just the
right thing to do, from a moral perspective—it is also good strategy.

read more


Early signals [in particular in Yemen] are indicating that the Trump administration is looking at Africa through a "security-focussed lens" [Eliot Pence]
Africa


Early signals [in particular in Yemen] are indicating that the Trump
administration is looking at Africa through a ”security-focussed lens”
[Eliot Pence]. I expect a significant and parabolic move in this
regard. I am sure this insertion of a hard-power lever was in part
designed to be a lever with which to tilt the pitch against China’s
exponential African arrival. The US and China make interesting
neighbours in Djibouti.

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#Odebrecht admits to paying $50m of bribes to win contracts in #Angola; $900k in #Mozambique. Governments are silent
Africa


But in Angola, which along with Mozambique is the only country outside
of Latin America on the list of places where it has admitted paying
bribes, "there has been absolute silence," said anti-corruption
campaigner Rafael Marques de Morais.

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How to repeat the Mugabe mantra Africa Confidential
Africa


By calling for land redistribution without compensation, Zuma is
following his Zimbabwean counterpart and throwing his foes into
confusion

Just as mounting political crises again threatened to overwhelm
President Jacob Zuma, he pulled out the land card to buy himself
breathing space before the African National Congress's elective
conference in nine months' time. The beleaguered ANC leader
demonstrated his capacity for coming back against all the odds when he
endorsed the idea of a 'pre-colonial land audit', followed by 'a
single law to address the issue of land restitution without
compensation'. This gambit could restore his political fortunes by
winning new allies on the left. It would require abandoning the
existing constitutional mechanisms for land reform and compensation,
and moving to a more radical, expropriatory model.

read more




Nigeria has floated naira "within a range"-cbank gov
Africa


 Nigeria has floated the naira "within a range" against the dollar,
central bank governor Godwin Emefiele said on Tuesday.

The naira, held around 305 per dollar for almost a year, was recently
effectively devalued for certain categories of the population, though
the central bank continues to tightly manage the rate.

He didn't say what the range was but said the exchange rate was
looking "better than expected".

"We have seen the rates converging and we are strongly very optimistic
that rate will converge further," he said referring to the gap between
the naira's official and black market rate.

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20-MAR-2017 :: Lao Tzu has said: "Men are born soft and supple; dead they are stiff and hard"
Africa


And here people is a key issue between countries that win and
countries that lose. Its all about the speed that policy-making
adjusts.

Like Lao Tzu has said:“Men are born soft and supple; dead they are
stiff and hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are
brittle and dry. Thus whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple of
death. Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life.  The hard
and stiff will be broken. The soft and supple will prevail.”

This is not the time to be stiff and inflexible, this is the time to
be soft and supple.

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.90% 2017
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.84% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Kenya

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Kenya borrows total of $1.55 billion in three syndicated loans
Africa


Kenya borrowed $800 million in a syndicated loan from four
international commercial lenders, part of a package totalling $1.55
billion.

The country also got a $500 million syndicated loan with Cairo-based
African Import Export Bank (Afreximbank) and the Trade Development
Bank (TDB), Afreximbank said. Another $250 million syndicated loan was
agreed earlier with TDB.

"The facility, for which Afreximbank and TDB acted as joint mandated
lead arrangers, is part of a $1.55 billion debt package of three
facilities being arranged and raised in parallel," Afreximbank said in
a statement issued on Monday.

Kenya had set out to raise 150 billion shillings ($1.46 billion),
partly to plug a fiscal deficit equal to 9.7 percent of gross domestic
product in its budget for the fiscal year to June 2017.

President Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces re-election in August, dismissed
criticism last week of his accelerated borrowing, saying the money was
funding development .

In January, the Nairobi government picked Standard Chartered, Standard
Bank, Citi and Rand Merchant Bank to lead the $800 million syndicated
loan.

"We signed and have already drawn down" the money, Kamau Thugge,
principal secretary at the ministry of finance, told Reuters.

The various tranches of the total loans of $1.55 billion comes with
different maturities of two to 10 years, Afreximbank said

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21-MAR-2017 :: Diamond Trust Bank announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Habib Bank Limited Kenya
Africa


Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Limited (“DTB”), a leading bank in Kenya,
listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange with banking subsidiaries in
Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi, today announced that it has entered into
a definitive agreement to acquire the Business, Assets and Liabilities
of Habib Bank Limited Kenya Branches (“HBL Kenya Branches”) as a going
concern from Habib Bank Limited (“HBL”), a global banking group
headquartered in Karachi, Pakistan and listed on the Pakistan Stock
Exchange (the “Transaction”). HBL is at present the largest private
bank in Pakistan operating 1,673 branches in that country with an
additional footprint in 22 countries.
The completion of the Transaction is subject to closing conditions
that include procurement of shareholders’ approvals as well as
regulatory approvals from various regulators including the State Bank
of Pakistan, the Central Bank of Kenya, the Competition Authority of
Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority which DTB expects will be
concluded in the first half of 2017.
Under the Transaction the entire consideration is intended, subject to
all requisite regulatory approvals, to be satisfied by the issuance of
13,281,105 ordinary new shares in DTB at a price of KShs. 137.39 per
share to HBL who is already a shareholder in DTB. As a consequence,
upon completion of the Transaction, all the existing shareholders of
DTB will be diluted by 4.75%.

read more


Diamond Trust Bank reports FY 16 PAT +17.096% Earnings here @DTBKenya
Africa

   4/-
Closing Price:           103.00
Total Shares Issued:         266,321,115
Market Capitalization:        27,431,074,845
EPS:             26.94
PE:               3.82

Prominent Kenyan commercial bank

FY Kenya government securities 74.311860b vs. 34.310709b +116.585%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 186.303191b vs. 177.544871b +4.933%
FY Total assets 328.044501b vs. 271.608597b +20.778%
FY Customer deposits 238.103640b vs. 194.051857b +22.701%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 41.029313b vs. 34.134437b +20.199%
FY Loans and advances interest income 23.917030b vs. 21.347025b +12.039%
FY Government securities interest income 9.598968b vs. 4.213348b +127.823%
FY Total interest income 33.812876b vs. 25.825179b +30.930%
FY Customer deposits expense [12.942194b] vs. [9.674934b] +33.770%
FY Total interest expenses [14.427599b] vs. [10.634972b] +35.662%
FY Net interest income 19.385277b vs. 15.190207b +27.617%
FY Fees and commissions on loans and advances 1.096734b vs. 0.993053b +10.441%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 1.745734b vs. 1.763096b -0.985%
FY Total non-interest income 5.068737b 4.725826b +7.256%
FY Total operating income 24.454014b vs. 19.916033b +22.786%
FY Loan loss provision [4.269537b] vs. [2.178175b] +96.014%
FY Staff costs [3.356651b] vs. [3.261135b] +2.929%
FY Other operating expenses [3.880463b] vs. [3.282087b] +18.232%
FY Total operating expenses [13.464806b] vs. [10.349398b] +30.102%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 10.989208b vs. 9.566635b +14.870%
FY Profit before tax 10.995696b vs. 9.565192b +14.955%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 7.728140b vs. 6.599806b +17.096%
EPS 26.94 vs. 22.20 +21.351%
Dividend per share 2.60 vs. 2.50 +4.000%
Total NPL and advances 6.052824b vs. 4.274897b +41.590%
Liquidity ratio 50.2% vs. 39.0% +11.200%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 2.865866b vs.
15.269755b -81.232%
No. Of outstanding shares : 266,321,115

DTB Bank published its FY 16 results after market close. EPS was up
21% y/y to KES 26.94, largely attributable to net interest income
growth (+28% y/y). DPS has been increased to KES 2.60 from KES 2.50
the prior year. The Bank has entered into a definitive agreement to
acquire Habib Bank Limited (HBL) by issuance of 13,281,105 ordinary
new shares of DTB Bank at a price of KES 137.39 per share to HBL,
resulting in a 4.75% dilution to existing shareholders of DTB Bank.
KESTREL

.@DTBKenya Our loan book growth has grown by 9% from Dec 2015 to stand
at Shs 137 billion.
.@DTBKenya Our customer deposits have grown by 34% from Dec 2015 to
close at Shs 170 billion.
.@DTBKenya Our total assets have grown by 28% from Dec 2015 to close
at Shs 244 billion.
.@DTBKenya Our bank pre-tax profit has grown by 26%  from 2015 to
close at Shs 8.9 billion.
.@DTBKenya At group level, the loan book growth from Dec 2015: 5% to
close at Shs 186 billion
.@DTBKenya At group level, pre-tax profit growth from 2015: 15% to
close at Shs 11 billion
.@DTBKenya At group level, Total assets growth from Dec 2015: 21% to
close at Shs 328 billion
.@DTBKenya  At group level, Deposit book and growth from Dec 2015: 23%
to close at Shs 238billion

Conclusions


Strong results and at a P/E of less than 4 - This is a screaming Buy
Nasim [who was an old friend of my Mother's] conserves cash [look at
Dividend Pay Out Ratio] and compounds the cash as equity.
DTB is well organised and well run and ambitious regionally as well.

read more



Kenya's central bank expects to lift Chase Bank out of receivership soon the governor of the central bank, Patrick Njoroge, said
Africa


Kenya's central bank expects to lift Chase Bank out of receivership
soon by bringing in new shareholders, the governor of the central
bank, Patrick Njoroge, said.

"We have started the process of putting the bank back in the regular
field, means identifying a strategic investor..., identifying business
models that will be supported," Njoroge told Reuters on the sidelines
of a conference in Switzerland, late on Monday.

The temporary closure of Chase, which followed the closure of Imperial
Bank, another mid-sized lender, and Dubai Bank Kenya, a smaller
lender, dented confidence in the industry, which has also seen a jump
in bad debts.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.10
Africa


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -4.17% 2017
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

127.78 +0.58 +0.46%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.60% 2017
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,007.90 +17.20 +0.58%

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The US Stock market suffered its biggest Losing day since the Election
of President Trump, yesterday.
The Noose is around President Trump's neck and US political risk under
estimated,
Crude Oil fell to a November 2016 Low and the current price structure
is highly problematic for Oil Producers who if they are not quaking
about the risk of an asymmetric downside move then they are asleep at
the wheel.
The Nairobi All Share rallied +0.469% to close at 128.38 a fresh 10 week high.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.892% to close at 3037.16 a fresh 10 week High.
Kenya Shilling was trading at 103.00 and Crude Oil prices support a
further firming of the Shilling.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 18.10 but was trading at 18.30 +1.1% at
the Finish signalling the direction of travel. Safaricom traded
11.702m shares worth 211.881m.

Kenya Airways predictably rallied +8.49% to close at 5.75 and traded
58,400 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 10 to 1.

Nation Media rallied +5.23% to close at 90.5 and traded 5,000 shares.
Nation Media has narrowed its YTD loss to -2.688%.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Diamond Trust Bank reported FY 16 Earnings where FY PAT accelerated
+17.096%. DTB grew Loans to customers +4.933%, Total Assets surged
+20.778% to clock 328.044b, FY Earnings Per Share expanded +21.351% to
26.94. Nasim Devi conserves cash and the FY Dividend was 2.60 +4.000%
and just 9.65% of its EPS. DTB also announced that the Bank has
entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Habib Bank Limited
(HBL) by issuance of 13,281,105 ordinary new shares of DTB Bank at a
price of KES 137.39 per share to HBL, resulting in a 4.75% dilution to
existing shareholders of DTB Bank. These are Strong results plain and
simple and at a P/E of less than 4 and a Price to Book of 0.72 - This
is a screaming Buy, in my opinion. DTB is well organised and well run
and ambitious regionally as well. DTB rallied a mighty +11.16% to
close at 114.50 and traded 500,500 shares. DTB is -2.966% and has
plenty of price headroom.

Barclays Bank rallied +2.808% to close at 9.15 and traded 143,200 shares.
Equity Group firmed +0.85% to close at 29.75 a 10 week high. Equity
traded 2.792m shares.

Jubilee Holdings retreated -3.33% to close at 435.00 and is now
-11.22% through 2017.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL which had become brutally oversold rallied +1.376% to close at
221.00 and was trading at 225.00 +3.21% at the closing Bell. EABL had
become horribly oversold and its 5 Year Bond will be fully subscribed
and some.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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