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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 29th of March 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Looking forward to the @FT Africa Payments Innovation Summit @ftlive #FTAfricaPayments
Africa


Macro Thoughts

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises to Highest Since December 2000

Home Thoughts

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Dear @HCNicHailey What an interesting Dinner! And such an appropriate menu for a #Financial discussion.
Africa


You have to live before you die, or you'll die before you live. Peter Sellers

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Cheney: Russia's Interference in U.S. Presidential Election Possibly 'Considered an Act of War'
Law & Politics


Monday at The Economic Times’ Global Business Summit in New Delhi,
India former Vice President Dick Cheney told an audience that
allegations of Russian interference in last year’s presidential
election could be “considered” an act of war.

“There was a very serious effort made by Mr. Putin and his government,
his organization, to interfere in major ways with our basic,
fundamental democratic processes,” he said. “In some quarters, that
would be considered an act of war.”

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HOW THE WHITE HOUSE AND REPUBLICANS BLEW UP THE HOUSE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION New Yorker
Law & Politics


“The Monday hearing last week was, I’m sure, not to the White House’s
liking,” said Himes. “Since Monday, I’m sorry to say, the chairman has
ceased to be the chairman of an investigative committee and has been
running interference for the Trump White House, cancelling hearings.”

Since then, Nunes and the White House have kicked up a cloud of
peripheral issues that have distracted attention from Comey’s
testimony and that of Michael Rogers, the director of the National
Security Agency; Nunes and the Trump Administration have essentially
shut down the investigation. Last night, Adam Schiff, the ranking
Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, called for Nunes to recuse
himself from the investigation. “All of this has cast such a cloud on
the public perception of his impartiality that I think it would be in
his interest as well as the committee’s,” he told me.

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U.S., Japan Test Xi With Taiwan Outreach Ahead of Trump Summit
Law & Politics


The U.S. and Japan are taking steps toward upgrading ties with Taiwan,
risking a run-in with China as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for
a first meeting in Florida next week.

The two allies have made a series of moves signaling more-direct
relations with the diplomatically isolated island even after Trump
reaffirmed the U.S.’s long-standing policy recognizing that both sides
are part of “One China.” In the last week alone, Taiwan has seen its
U.S. envoy share a Washington stage with Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson and hosted a vice minister from Japan, its highest-level
official visit in almost half a century.

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The pound fell as much as 0.6 percent to 1.2377 per dollar, and was the worst performer among the Group-of-10
International Trade


Britain’s ambassador is expected to hand EU President Donald Tusk a
letter at around 1:30 p.m. local time in Brussels invoking Article 50
of the Lisbon Treaty.

Conclusions


I am bullish about Sterling, in point of fact.

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Don't look now but Tencent might just displace Wells Fargo by today and enter top 10 largest companies in the world by value. #TENcent
International Trade


Naspers has a lot of Tencent.

Tesla Inc.'s stock jumped as much as 3.6 percent on Tuesday after it
emerged that Chinese Internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. had taken a
5 percent stake in Elon Musk's electric-vehicle and renewable-energy
company.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0813
Dollar Index 99.73
Japan Yen 111.20 Fibonacci level 109.93 yen is the 50 percent
retracement of the dollars low to high post election.
Swiss Franc 0.9922
Pound 1.2408
Aussie 0.7645
India Rupee 65.115
South Korea Won 1113.90
Brazil Real 3.1399
Egypt Pound 18.25
South Africa Rand 13.0044

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AFRICA AT A TIPPING POINT 2017 Forum Report MO IBRAHIM FOUNDATION
Africa


Between 2015 and 2050, Africa’s youth will almost double, from 230 to
452 million.
The fastest growing African economies have not created enough jobs for youth.
By 2050, half of Africa’s population will be below 25 years old.
In 2016, the average age of African presidents is 66, while the
average median age of the continent’s population is 20.
Of the 25 fastest growing economies in the world between 2004 and
2014, ten are African.
Nearly 30 million young Africans were unemployed in 2015.
In 2015, four African countries featured in the global top ten for the
highest terrorism levels: Nigeria, Somalia, Egypt, Libya.
Between one-third and a half of the tertiary educated populations of
Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Mozambique and Ghana leave their country.
A majority of African citizens trust religious leaders, the army and
their traditional leaders more than their elected representatives.
Over a decade, the number of terrorist attacks on the African
continent has increased by more 1,000%.
On average, almost half of the African population is currently still
below the legal voting age.
For more than a quarter of Africa’s population the leader has not
changed for the last ten years, and often much longer.
Somalia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda have still not rati ed the 2004
Protocol to the 1999 AU Convention on the Prevention of Terrorism.
56 African Heads of State have left of ce over the last decade,
including nine that died in of ce and 13 stepping down following a
coup, an arrest or an uprising.
Less than a quarter of Africa’s youth is “very interested in public affairs”.
Over a decade the number of protests and riots have increased more than tenfold.

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Many commentators define the African population surge as a "dividend" but what is clear its going be a Terminator for a whole number of regimes
Africa


Many commentators define the African population surge as a
‘’dividend’’ but what is clear is that if it is allowed a Free and
Fair vote its going be a Terminator for a whole number of regimes. The
demographic bulge is now arriving at voting age. This is that moment,
its importance cannot be gainsaid.

These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

read more



Africa


The four hallmarks of power in Angola are: Corruption (nepotism
included); impunity; propaganda; and repression.

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South Africa's Political Bustup Revives Specter of Junk on Bonds
Africa


The yield on government dollar bonds maturing in May 2022 jumped 10
basis points to 3.75 percent on Tuesday, the most since Dec. 15. They
may widen a further 80 to 100 basis points if Gordhan is fired,
according to Anders Faergemann, a senior fund manager in London at
PineBridge Investments Europe Ltd., which manages about $83 billion
globally.

A downgrade “could be devastating for the country’s bond market,”
Faergemann said. “This would be a real shame as South Africa’s bond
market had become a bit of a darling with yield-seeking investors.”

A credit-rating cut to junk would remove South Africa from some global
benchmark indexes, triggering forced selling from funds that track
those gauges or are restricted from holding sub-investment grade debt.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.27% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.0035
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.2470
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The spread of the unofficial and central bank rates shrinking fast
in #Nigeria ..we show #Egypt here too @rencapman
pic.twitter.com/GaNdgfHcg2

Ailing Leader Buhari 'Reduces His Working Hours': @ALLAFRICA
https://twitter.com/allafrica/status/846652276055949312

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.46% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +12.22% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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In its latest report, BMI Research said the estimated money supply shortfall of $2,5 billion would force the country to go above the $200 million cap.
Africa


“Estimates on the shortfall in Zimbabwe’s money supply reach as high
as $2,5 billion, which will continue to weigh on price growth even
under a more rapid expansion of bond note issuance. We believe this
will increase the likelihood of the government extending the bond note
supply beyond current $200 million cap,” BMI Research said in a Africa
Monitor Southern Africa newsletter issue 4 for April 2017.

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25-JUL-2016 Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the Edge that Hunter S. Thompson described
Africa


"The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"

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Why Kabila's Lingering Makes Congo Newly Perilous: QuickTake Q&A
Africa


Fragile investor confidence in Congo has been damaged by the
uncertainty. S&P Global Ratings lowered Congo’s investment outlook
last year to negative, citing growing political tensions. Commercial
operators say predation by Congo’s cash-starved government agencies
has become a daily occurrence. The government expects resurgent copper
and cobalt prices to help revive economic growth this year, but there
would be a lag before government revenue would be impacted. Meanwhile,
the population will bear the brunt of rising inflation and a
depreciating local currency. Should Kabila find an excuse to break the
December deal, the opposition is apt to call new protests, which would
likely be met with a harsh response. With a resurgence of militia
activity in parts of eastern Congo and new fighting in the
Kasai-Central province having already spread to five provinces,
renewed urban protests would test Kabila’s ability to maintain control
of the country. Regional players are less inclined to meddle in
Congolese security than they were 20 years ago, so a new civil war is
unlikely. Still, the uncertainty around when and how Kabila will leave
office will continue to stoke conflict and check investment until he
steps down.

read more


Go to Ethiopia for Ancient History, Jazz, and a Capital City on the Rise Conde Nast
Africa


As a history nerd and seeker who has read my fair share of Peter
Matthiessen, I’ve found my peak travel moments have tended to occur on
the crowded ghats of Varanasi alongside bathing sadhus or among the
daveners by Jerusalem’s Wailing Wall. There’s something about seeing
ancient ritual enacted in the present that is both disorienting and
oddly reassuring in this increasingly deracinated world. Which is why
Ethiopia found its way onto my Pinterest board.

read more




@KingAbdullahII his troops were ready with Britain & Kenya to go "over the border" to attack al-Shabaab in Somalia
Kenyan Economy


The memo indicates that Abdullah also told US lawmakers:

• The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, “believes in a radical
Islamic solution to the problems in the region” and the “fact that
terrorists are going to Europe is part of Turkish policy, and Turkey
keeps getting a slap on the hand, but they get off the hook”.

• Intelligence agencies want to keep terrorist websites “open so they
can use them to track extremists” and Google had told the Jordanian
monarch “they have 500 people working on this”.

• Israel “looks the other way” at the al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra on its border with Syria because “they regard them as an
opposition to Hezbollah”.

The king raised particular concerns over al-Shabaab, the Islamist
militant group in Somalia that has links with both Isis and al-Qaida.

“Jordan is looking at al-Shabaab because no one was really looking at
the issue, and we cannot separate this issue, and the need to look at
all the hotspots in the map,” he said, adding: “We have a rapid
deployment force that will stand with the British and Kenya and is
ready to go over the border [into Somalia].”

Abdullah said “we started with al-Shabaab, as they feed into Libya”,
which has descended into chaos since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi
by Nato forces.

read more







Housing Finance Co. reports FY 16 EPS -24.49% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           11.80
Total Shares Issued:          352416667.00
Market Capitalization:        4,158,516,671
EPS:             2.59
PE:               4.55

Kenya Government securities 3.556805b vs. 1.571403b +126.346%
Loans and advances to customers (net) 54.469605b vs. 53.021022b +2.732%
Total Assets 71.930140b vs. 71.659434b +0.378%
Customer deposits 38.082325b vs. 41.665085b -8.599%
Total shareholders’ funds 11.289262b vs. 10.622641b +6.275%
FY Loans and advances to customers interest income 7.889838b vs.
7.218269b +9.304%
FY Total interest income 8.607499b vs. 8.098136b +6.290%
FY Customer deposits expense [2.937487b] vs. [2.857720b] +2.791%
FY Total interest expenses [4.673384b] vs. [4.486182b] +4.173%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 3.934115b vs. 3.611954b +8.919%
FY Other income 430.403m vs. 768.444m -43.990%
FY Total non-interest income 0.755549b vs. 1.171089b -35.483%
FY Total operating income 4.689664b vs. 4.783043b -1.952%
FY Loan loss provision [699.166m] vs. [503.771m] +38.786%
FY Staff costs [1.071976b] vs. [1.098664b] -2.429%
FY Total other operating expenses [3.341784b] vs. [3.112537b] +7.365%
FY Profit/ [loss] before tax and exceptional items 1.347880b vs.
1.670506b -19.313%
FY Profit/ [loss] after tax and exceptional items 0.905829b vs.
1.196969b -24.323%
EPS 2.59 vs. 3.43 -24.490%
Dividend per share 0.50 vs. 1.30 -61.538%
Liquidity ratio 21.05% vs. 28.04% -6.990%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December 2.864815b vs. 7.768130b -63.121%
No. Of shares : 352,416,667

This came as “other income”, largely property sales, dropped 43.9 per
cent to Sh430.4 million.
Chief executive Frank Ireri said the company’s property development
unit HFDI has Sh1 billion worth of transactions tied up at the lands
ministry where operations have slowed down.
The company also blamed slow property transactions on the 51.1 per
cent jump in gross non-performing loans to Sh6.1 billion, leading to
38.7 per cent rise in loss provisions to Sh699.1 million.
“The stalemate and reforms at the lands office has … caused massive
delay in matters related to change of user process, subdivisions and
amalgamations,” Mr Ireri said in a statement.
“This has affected closure of our projects, with some such as Komarock
5A, completed in 2013 yet to be fully closed.”

Conclusions


Earnings crimped -

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Sameer Africa Ltd. (Firestone) reports FY 16 Loss [652.101m]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           3.00
Total Shares Issued:          278342393.00
Market Capitalization:        835,027,179
EPS:             -2.34
PE:

FY Revenue 2.882230b vs. 3.363976b -14.321%
FY Cost of sales [1.950570b] vs. [2.402462b] -18.810%
FY Gross profit 931.660m vs. 961.514m -3.105%
FY Other operating income 21.679m vs. 10.123m +114.156%
FY Operating expenses [897.280m] vs. [916.123m] -2.057%
FY Re-organisation expenses [877.068m] vs. –
FY Operating [Loss]/ profit [821.009m] vs. 55.514m -1,578.922%
FY Net finance costs [35.684m] vs. [56.743m] -37.113%
FY [Loss]/ profit before income tax [865.056m] vs. 5.689m
FY Loss for the year [652.101m] vs. [15.652m] -4,066.247%
EPS [2.34] vs. [0.06] -3,800.000%
FY Total assets 3.290867b vs. 3.751225b -12.272%
FY Total equity 1.835194b vs. 2.492447b -26.370%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [693.233m] vs.
[36.709m] -1,788.455%
No dividend

Commentary

2016 was a significant year...decision to close the tyre factory....
The costs related to the factory closure were 877m [239m staff
redundancy, 179m fixed asset impairment and 405m impairment of raw
material inventory]
Sales through our dealer channel -31%
Export Sales contracted -68%
Yaya Tyre centres +46%
SUMMIT +184% growth in Unit Sales
No Dividend

Conclusions

The Market Cap is 835m and they lost [652.101m]

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.85
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -1.36% 2017 [5th January 2017 high]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

131.52 +0.10 +0.08%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.42% 2017 [10th January 2017 highs]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,109.01 +10.85 +0.35%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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