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Macro Thoughts |
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His enemies underestimated him. Although nobody would mistake him for a great orator, he has the capability to stay calm and speak in plain English. Law & Politics |
Jeremy Corbyn, the sixty-eight-year-old leftist who heads the opposition Labour Party in the U.K., wasn’t scheduled to appear at the BBC’s televised general-election debate this week. With Theresa May, the Conservative Prime Minister, and the hot favorite to gain reëlection, skipping the event out of a super-abundance of caution, Corbyn’s aides didn’t think that it would do him any good to debate the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, who was standing in for May, and the leaders of five smaller parties: the Liberal Democrats, the U.K. Independence Party, the Greens, the Scottish National Party, and the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.
At the last minute, however, Corbyn, changed his mind. Buoyed by a series of opinion polls showing Labour gaining ground on the Conservatives, he zipped up to Senate House, at the University of Cambridge, where the debate was being held. Seizing on May’s absence, and her reluctance to appear anywhere in public except in front of confirmed Conservative supporters, he performed well. “The Tories have been conducting a stage-managed, arms-length campaign, and have treated the public with contempt,” he declared. And he went on, “On June 8, you have a choice. More cuts in services and living standards with the Conservatives, or vote Labour to transform Britain for the many and not the few.”
The tightening in the polls has unnerved some Conservative politicians, and no wonder. It represents the biggest swing to either major party during an election campaign since U.K. polling began, in 1945. Not surprisingly, there is a lot of debate about how real the swing is.
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The Manchester Bombing as Blowback: The latest evidence June 3, 2017 A Briefing by Mark Curtis[1] and Nafeez Ahmed[2] Law & Politics |
Summary
In summary, the evidence so far shows that there are six inter-related aspects of blowback:
Salman Abedi and his father were members of a Libyan dissident group – the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) – covertly supported by the UK to assassinate Qadafi in 1996. At this time, the LIFG was an affiliate of Osama Bin Laden’s al-Qaeda and LIFG leaders had various connections to this terror network. Members of the LIFG were facilitated by the British ‘security services’ to travel to Libya to fight Qadafi in 2011. Both Salman Abedi and his father, Ramadan, were among those who travelled to fight at this time (although there is no evidence that their travel was personally facilitated or encouraged by the security services). A large number of LIFG fighters in Libya in 2011 had earlier fought alongside the Islamic State of Iraq – the al-Qaeda entity which later established a presence in Syria and became the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). These fighters were among those recruited into the British-backed anti-Qadafi rebellion. UK covert action in Libya in 2011 included approval of and support to Qatar’s arming and backing of opposition forces, which included support to hardline Islamist groups; this fuelled jihadism in Libya. One of the groups armed/supported by Qatar in 2011 was the February 17th Martyrs Brigade which, some reports suggest, was the organisation which Ramadan Abedi joined in 2011 to fight Qadafi. Qatar’s arms supplies to Libya in 2011 also found their way to Islamist fighters in Syria, including groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS. Conclusions
The evidence points to the LIFG being seen by the UK as a proxy militia to promote its foreign policy objectives. Whitehall also saw Qatar as a proxy to provide boots on the ground in Libya in 2011, even as it empowered hardline Islamist groups.
Both David Cameron, then Prime Minister, and Theresa May – who was Home Secretary in 2011 when Libyan radicals were encouraged to fight Qadafi – clearly have serious questions to answer. We believe an independent public enquiry is urgently needed.
The evidence suggests that British actions in three different theatres – Libya, Iraq and Syria – cannot be viewed in isolation:
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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011 Law & Politics |
The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi and his son Mo’tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata. John Donne wrote: “... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee...” I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of a bloodied Gaddafi , then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter. Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that message being; ‘Don’t Fxxk with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy souvenir in a fridge.’ That same person is probably repeating Muammar’s comment, “I tell the coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can’t get me. I live in the hearts of millions.” And asking ‘Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?''
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Saudi-led Alliance Moves to Blockade Qatar Over Iran Tensions Law & Politics |
Four Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and moved to close off access to the Gulf country, escalating a crisis that started over its relationship with Iran and its support of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The governments of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt said in statements they will suspend air and sea travel to and from Qatar. Saudi Arabia will shut land crossings with its neighbor, according to the official Saudi Press Agency, potentially depriving the emirate of imports.
Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s support of “terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region,” including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and al-Qaeda. It accused Qatar of supporting “Iranian-backed terrorist groups” operating in the kingdom’s eastern province as well as Bahrain.
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23 MAY 16 :: Qatar Punching Beyond its Size @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
Today, Qatar is a big player in the region punching far beyond its absolute size (estimates are that there are fewer than 300,000 Qatari citizens) both in terms of hard and soft power. In a geopolitical context, Qatar played a big role in toppling Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and its influence can be seen similarly in the move to remove President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In foreign policy terms, Qatar has packed a big punch beyond merely hosting the US military at al Udeid air base.
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08-MAY-2017 :: a Crude Oil Price Target of $32.00 a Barrel. @TheStarKenya Commodities |
The OPEC “Go-Go” days of Sheikh Yamani, his prayer beads and delphic pronouncements belong to yesteryear. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, the current OPEC secretary-general, is a poor imitation of Yamani and is playing with a set of cards that is stacked against him. Reserves have been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to Caracas and in all the oil producing capitals in the world. So many capitals are fiddling while sitting on a tinderbox and playing with matches. The deputy Crown Prince was quoted on Al-Arabiyya about Iran: “How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?” This is deluded thinking at a time when things could seriously fall apart: Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, the blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere e ceremony of innocence is drowned; Thee best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand [W.B Yeats e Second Coming]
We have experienced a precipitous downside move and, in my opinion, the exponential recent momentum is signalling there is further to go. My price target is $32.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices in extremis move exponentially. This move has all the ingredients for turning exponential. Some thought they found a floor Friday, but I expect them to be rudely awakened.
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Returns Soar as Emerging Markets Turn Less Volatile WSJ Emerging Markets |
Emerging markets are the calmest they have been in nearly three years, helping to draw a surge of funds from abroad and boosting returns in a sector that many investors once viewed as notoriously turbulent.
Emerging-market bond funds received inflows of $1.1 billion in the week to May 24, marking the 17th consecutive week of net inflows, according to data tracker EPFR Global.
This wave of cash has helped drive down bond yields and lift other emerging-market investments, such as stocks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 25% in the past 12 months, compared with a return of around 15% for the S&P 500. Emerging-market currencies are up nearly 6% since January, powered by gains in the Russian ruble, Mexican peso and others.
Rising prices and low volatility place emerging markets firmly in line with a broader global trend in 2017, in which continued global monetary stimulus and expectations of improving economic growth are helping to mute price swings.
Prices for junk bonds are approaching records. A rally in technology stocks has pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record levels. The monthly average of the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a closely watched indicator of investor anxiety in the U.S. stock market, reached its second lowest level in history last month.
“When investors believe the market is unlikely to be hit by negative surprises, they tend to pile into assets that have the highest risk-reward,” said Alvise Marino, a strategist at investment bank Credit Suisse Group .
Frontier Markets
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Congo President Joseph Kabila 'I'm Not Going to Commit Suicide' @DerSPIEGEL Africa |
SPIEGEL: Still, there is the suspicion that you would follow the example of the presidents of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda or Congo and change the constitution to extend your time in office.
Kabila: If you want to talk about countries that changed their constitutions, let's talk about countries in Europe. The idea that it's only Africa which has the tendency of changing constitutions is biased and not correct. To change the constitution is constitutional. Within the constitution there is the word "referendum." You can change the constitution by referendum. But we have not yet called for a referendum. As of today, we have not yet organized any meeting or discussions on how to change the constitution.
SPIEGEL: Does the Congolese constitution somehow allow the interpretation that a third term in office is possible?
Kabila: Our constitution is a very clear one. That interpretation is not in the constitution.
SPIEGEL: So, there will be no third term for President Joseph Kabila?
Kabila: It depends what a third term is. We don't intend to violate the constitution. How do you do it without violating the constitution?
SPIEGEL: Perhaps because you see a possibility to interpret the constitution in a certain way.
Kabila: Neither you nor I cannot interpret the constitution. Only the constitutional courts can interpret the constitution.
SPIEGEL: Is this a clear "no"?
Kabila: A clear no about what?
SPIEGEL: To a third term of your presidency.
Kabila: You are coming from your air-conditioned offices in Berlin and Cape Town, and I hope you will find time to understand the Congo and its difficulties. In any case, the father of democracy is Patrice Lumumba, the first prime minister after our independence, who was assassinated under conditions that to this day nobody can clearly understand. So, for me, this title is not the most important thing. You can go down in history as the father of democracy, but you can also go down as the person who brought about chaos just by stepping down. The constitution is very clear as to how and when the president hands over power. He can only hand power over to an elected successor.
SPIEGEL: Which means you have to hold elections promptly.
Kabila: And that's why we are working 24 hours a day in order for those elections to be held.
SPIEGEL: The G-20 countries are preparing a major Africa initiative, Germany is even promoting a kind of Marshall Plan for the continent. But in exchange, they are demanding good governance, political reforms and democratic elections. They are particularly worried about your country, because there are currently no longer any legitimate institutions. Neither the president nor the parliament is legitimate at this point.
Kabila: It's not up to the West or any scholar to decide whether our institutions are legitimate or not. That's for our constitutional court to decide. And two, as for the Marshall Plan or whatever it is, I don't believe in that. Africans have been fed this kind of language for the last 50 years. The West exploited Africa and now it wants to save it. We have been living with this hypocrisy for too long. Africa can only be saved by Africans. Why are we talking about a Marshall Plan now? It's because you see a lot of immigrants moving into Europe. And when Europe senses danger, it needs to do something to keep all these Africans at home where they belong. But is this done in good faith? No, not at all. So, for me, it's pure hypocrisy.
Kabila: Well, it's not up to me to say whether it's true or false. It's up to the justice system. Being a Catholic bishop does not mean that you are a saint. I have not asked the bishops to replace the justice system in this country. There is no case between the government and Mr. Katumbi as an individual. He has to deal with the justice system in this country.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Katumbi has vowed to return soon. Is that your worst nightmare?
Kabila: I don't have any nightmares.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Katumbi could call on the Congolese to mount mass protests. It's possible that millions of people could show up to welcome him.
Kabila: And then, what next? If you think that somebody is above the law because he has 1 or 2 million people following him, we would not have a lawful country.
Kabila: Please, please … your Western officials! I am all against neo-colonialism and these actions just perpetuate it.
SPIEGEL: So, you're saying the assessments are baseless?
Kabila: What I want to say is: The correct thing would have been to share the assessments with us and the people involved. But the sanctions are not going to stop us from organizing elections. And it's not the kind of pressure that's going to push us into doing anything else.
SPIEGEL: Your father was murdered by an aid and a body guard who was one of his most trusted people. Whom do you trust?
Kabila: I believe that God exists and I trust in God. I trust in the judgement of the Congolese people, that we are moving in the right direction.
SPIEGEL: We hear elderly people in the streets saying: We do not want another Mobutu, a tyrant, who plundered the country for 32 years.
Kabila: Whom are the people comparing Mobutu to? I don't think it's an appropriate question as far as I am concerned.
Kabila: I would like you to meet with the Electoral Commission to get that answer. The Congo is a continent unto itself. Don't look at the Congo through the window of Berlin. We don't even have 10 percent of the infrastructure you have in Germany. Can you imagine holding elections 2,000 kilometers from here?
SPIEGEL: So, it may take longer to organize the election?
Kabila: It might take longer or not. As I mentioned earlier: If you organize chaotic elections, you will get chaos.
SPIEGEL: Where do you see your role or position after the official end of your term in office?
Kabila: Well, I'll leave that to myself. Don't worry, I'm not going to commit suicide. And I will definitively continue to be of service to my country.
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Angola: Sonangol On the Brink Africa |
Maka Angola is reliably informed that on May 17 Isabel dos Santos went to see the Finance Minister, Archer Mangueira, to request an injection of three billion dollars (!!) to rescue Sonangol from imminent bankruptcy.
From the moment her father appointed her to head Sonangol, Isabel dos Santos has encountered repeated difficulty in obtaining credit from the international financial markets given the conflicts of interest between her private business interests and those of the Angolan state.
International financiers are said to believe that her brand is now "toxic".
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Somalis "give names to the droughts, & they give names to the wars," said Karani @ForeignPolicy H/T @MatinaStevis Africa |
It was a massive drought that propelled Karani, who is now almost 80, into the job that defined his career. Somalia typically has two wet seasons each year: The long rains, gu, last from April to June and the deyr from October to November. But in 1974 and 1975, the rains never came. The Dabadheer drought, as it became known, translates to “the long-tailed one,” because “it stayed for a long time,” Karani explained. Some 19,000 people starved to death, and a quarter-million nomads lost most of their livestock, leaving them destitute.
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05-JUN-2017 :: Nairobi can learn from Jakarta on food subsidies @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
Once upon a time, well close to 20 Years ago [which might as well mean some fairy tale past given the speed with which the World is turning and turning these days], I was a Managing Director at Sumitomo Bank and running a Repo Desk and reporting to the Anglicised Konishi-san who was my Executive Chairman. Konishi-san had hired me when I was 30 and made me a Managing Director. I had assembled a Team of 15 that sat in London, New York and Tokyo. The Repo markets in those days were a ''Go-go'' market and we were aggressive and in fact Clients all over the World knew we embraced taking on positions that others might blink at. Sumitomo Bank had invested in an Indonesian Bank and we did some business there with the ''Bakrie'' Brothers who were quite a colourful pair and deserving of a column of their own. Well in that period 1997-1998, East Asia was gripped by a financial crisis which started with the collapse of the Thai Baht. The Indonesian Rupiah followed.
One morning Konishi-san called me into his Office. The Government of Indonesia is requesting a $500m Facility. Can we do it, he asked? They are requesting we visit Jakarta immediately. The next day, we were in Jakarta and in the evening we were in State House with President Suharto, His Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank, Konishi-san and myself. I engaged with the Governor and we established he could cobble together enough collateral and I turned to Konishi-san and said, Yes we can. We were of course going to be rewarded very handsomely and I had persuaded Konishi-san that not only would we make a lot of money but they would never forget that we had pulled through when everyone was hitting the eject Button. Konishi-san sat on the Board of the Bank in Tokyo and started to call other Board members to get their agreement. We were front-running a request to the IMF by the Government.
And at that moment, The Phone rings and the Minister picks it up and then he turns to his President and announces We have got the IMF Package but one of the conditions is we remove all the Food subsidies.
The President then turns to all of us and says ''Well that means I will be gone in a week'' and he was.
Such a thing is not something you forget and from that time I have studied the correlation between Food Prices and political reactions. And let me tell you that high food prices are typically seriously inimical to the interests of the incumbent Government. President Suharto was an extreme example. Now what is crystal clear is that to date the response to high food prices [and we can discuss another time why we are here in the first place] could be best described as sub optimal or more accurately as a Pig's Ear and in an election year. Markets are often characterised as a Tug of War between Greed and Fear. Well here it appears that Greed [Profiteering] has triumphed over Fear [the Political need to win an election].
Intelligence Reports have this Election neck and neck as does my Proprietary Rich Model. Every Vote will count.
If I were President Kenyatta I would be dialling up President Enrique Peña Nieto and be ordering all the Food Supplies directly from him. I would be packaging the Unga on the high seas with the right branding and stamping it with a 90/= price and dumping it on the local market. Its called Risk-Management.
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President Suharto Kenyan Economy |
Suharto (also spelled Soeharto; About this sound pronunciation (help·info), or Muhammad Soeharto; Javanese : ꦩꦸꦲꦩ꧀ꦩꦢ꧀ꦯꦸꦲꦂꦠ ; 8 June 1921 – 27 January 2008) was the second President of Indonesia, holding the office for 31 years from the ousting of Sukarno in 1967 until his resignation in 1998.
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N.S.E Today |
Geopolitically speaking, we are seeing plenty of uncertainty. The asymmetric threat on UK streets is plain alarming. Jeremy Corbyn is landing some real strong punches now and Labour is no longer the also-ran. Many Folks including myself [mis]underestimated him. The Bloomberg Dollar Index sank back to levels last seen during session-lows on US election day in November. The Qatar story sent Crude Oil higher but as I write its negative on the day and that signals what a bearish market it is. I am looking for $32,00 a barrel. We are last trading just below $47.50. The Nairobi All Share eased -0.45 points off a 22 month high to close at 149.63. The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed +7.59 points to close at 3480.78 a 10 month closing high. Equity Turnover clocked 458.773m.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom eased -1.11% off a record high to close at 22.25 and traded 4.777m shares. Safaricom has further price head-room. Safaricom is +16.187% in 2017 and as undergirded the bull market.
Standard Group rallied +3.78% to close at 34.25 and is now +107.57% in 2017 and the best performing share at the Exchange bar none.
Deacons was upticked +9.722% to close at 3.95 but remains -34.71% in 2017.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
KCB was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and rallied +1.88% to close at a fresh 12 month high of 40.75 and traded 3.915m shares worth 160.346m. KCB has soared +41.73% in 2017. Equity Bank firmed +0.64% to close at 39.50 a 2017 closing High. Equity is +31.66% in 2017. COOP Bank firmed +1.466% to close at 17.35 and is +31.43% in 2017. Diamond Trust Bank firmed +2.8% to close at a Fresh 2017 High of 147.00. DTB is +24.57% in 2017.
NIC Bank rallied +3.13% to close at 33.00 a 2017 high. NIC Bank IS +26.9% in 2017.
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