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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 09th of June 2017
 
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Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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Macro Thoughts

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Kerala apparently [I liked the mood music of the Photo]
Africa


“I believe in the complexity of the human story.” —China Achebe

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Hunter S. Thompson "The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"
Africa


Exploring Kenya is a never ending adventure! This is Mount Sepache
in the North and is sacred to the Samburu people 🇰🇪🇰🇪🇰🇪
@thelawry

https://twitter.com/thelawry/status/873068315106623489

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Comey Bluntly Raises Possibility of Trump Obstruction and Condemns His 'Lies' NYT
Law & Politics


WASHINGTON — James B. Comey, the recently fired F.B.I. director, said
Thursday in an extraordinary Senate hearing that he believed President
Trump had tried to derail an investigation into his national security
adviser, and accused the president of lying and defaming him and the
F.B.I.

Mr. Comey, no longer constrained by the formalities of a government
job, offered a blunt, plain-spoken assessment of a president whose
conversations unnerved him from the day they met, weeks before Mr.
Trump took office.

Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Marc E. Kasowitz, flatly denied any
obstruction. “The president never, in form or substance, directed or
suggested that Mr. Comey stop investigating anyone,” he said.

Conclusions


Not enough.

read more



Emir Won't Visit US While Qatar Is Under Blockade
Law & Politics


Conclusions


He would not have been able to get back to the Emirate.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1182
Dollar Index 97.45
Japan Yen 110.33
Swiss Franc 0.9715
Pound 1.2714
Aussie 0.7535
India Rupee 64.295
South Korea Won 1124.83
Brazil Real 3.2614
Egypt Pound 18.1305
South Africa Rand 12.9356

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The deputy Crown Prince was quoted on Al-Arabiyya about Iran: "How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?"
Commodities


This is deluded thinking at a time when things could seriously fall apart:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere  e ceremony of
innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand
[W.B Yeats  The Second Coming]

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Global food import bill on the rise despite stable markets FAO
Commodities


8 June 2017, Rome-Global food commodity markets are well-balanced,
buoyed by ample supplies of wheat and maize and rebounding production
of oilseed products.
However, rising shipping costs and larger import volumes are set to
lift the global food import bill to more than USD 1.3 trillion this
year, a 10.6 percent increase from 2016, FAO said today in its
biannual Food Outlook.

The food import bills of least-developed countries, low-income food
deficit countries and countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on course to
rise even faster due to higher import volumes of meat, sugar, dairy
and oilseed products.

Rising import bills are forecast for all food categories except for
fish, for which growing domestic market demand in many developing
countries is being increasingly met by robust growth in their local
aquaculture sectors.

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ISDA asked to consider alleged Venezuela Russian loan default Fast FT
Emerging Markets


Someone has asked the global derivatives trade body whether
Venezuela’s reported default on a Russian loan constitutes a broader
default on its debts.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is the powerful
umbrella organisation set up by the finance industry to make the vast
derivatives markets “safer and more efficient”.

Isda’s Determinations Committees, made up of finance industry
representatives, are the ones that decide whether credit-default swaps
– a kind of insurance against a borrower reneging on its debts – are
triggered and should be paid out.

According to the organisation’s website, someone has anonymously
requested Isda’s regional DC for the Americas whether a reported
Venezuelan default on about $950m of export loans from Russia used to
finance arms purchases could trigger a wider default. The DC request
cites the Latin American Herald Tribune’s report on the default, which
the FT has not been able to independently verify. Bloomberg has also
confirmed the report, citing Russian Audit Chamber.

There is no indication whether the Americas DC committee will decide
to discuss whether the alleged default constitutes a default, and the
committees’ deliberations can take time, especially in more legally
contentious cases.

Venezuela’s sovereign $3bn bond due in 2022 fell for a fourth day
running on Thursday, to trade at 57 cents on the dollar, for an
annualised yield of 29.3 per cent – close to a one year high.

Conclusions

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.58% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.9192 [Moodys decision due
late today]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1305

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +22.56% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana’s cocoa regulator says it is $2.2 billion in debt after a price
slump weighs on revenues

https://bloom.bg/2rSpkLU

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.81% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Kenya's Odinga Evokes Ghost of 2008 Chaos, Urges Fair Vote
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s elections may prompt violence that evokes the unrest that
killed at least 1,100 people following a disputed vote a decade ago if
the electoral authorities fail to ensure this year’s process is
credible, opposition leader Raila Odinga said.

Any outbreak of clashes would be difficult to control, even though
Kenyans “don’t want to go back to 2008,” Odinga said in an interview
Wednesday in the capital, Nairobi. The 72-year-old former prime
minister is seeking to stop President Uhuru Kenyatta from securing a
second term in the Aug. 8 election.

Kenyan elections are a source of nervousness for investors in East
Africa’s biggest economy. A dispute between supporters of rival
parties over the outcome of a presidential election in December 2007
sparked two months of violence that, in addition to the deaths, forced
350,000 others to flee their homes. The clashes also caused Kenya’s
economic growth rate to slump to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 7.1 percent
a year earlier.

“The other time we told people to stop, but when the situation
develops, it becomes very difficult for an individual to do anything,”
Odinga said. “Things just completely get out of hand. It’s not in my
hands” to stop the violence, he said.

The opposition National Super Alliance, which Odinga heads, already
suspects “something sinister” is afoot at the Independent Electoral &
Boundaries Commission after the body dismissed two senior officials in
the space of a week. One of the people removed was the head of the
procurement office, which has yet to secure 130 million ballot papers
needed for the legislative, gubernatorial, presidential and other
elections taking place in two months.

Odinga is “setting the tone” that his side may not accept the results,
especially if they lose by a small margin, said Lisa Brown, a risk
analyst at Rand Merchant Bank in South Africa. By raising questions
about the electoral body, his alliance can create public doubt about
its ability to carry out the polling as well as any run-off, she said.

“Given the fragility of the economy, Odinga’s rhetoric around
rejecting the outcome, and the fact that NASA might not be able to
prevent violence, does cloud prospects around economic recovery after
August,” Brown said.

Odinga and Kenyatta may have near equal support among ethnic voting
blocs in the country, and if the opposition coalition boosts turnout
in swing counties by 10 percent on voting day, it may be able to force
a run-off, according to Emma Gordon, senior analyst at Bath,
England-based Verisk Maplecroft.

Kenyatta is a member of the Kikuyu community, the largest ethnic group
in the nation, while Odinga is Luo, the third biggest. There are more
than 40 ethnic groups in the nation of 47 million people.

A Kenyatta victory will probably “spark urban rioting in key
opposition hot spots,” albeit at “levels only slightly higher than
seen in 2013,” Gordon said in a report last month.

Kenyatta would take 47 percent of the vote if elections were held now,
pollster Ipsos Kenya said in a survey published May 30. That compares
with 42 percent support for Odinga, according to Ipsos. Respondents in
76 percent of the households said economic conditions have worsened,
citing the rising cost of living, while 71 percent said the nation is
headed in the wrong direction.

NASA can garner about 8.4 million votes in its strongholds against the
ruling Jubilee Party’s estimated 7.2 million, Odinga said. The tide of
voters in so-called battleground counties, with an estimated 5 million
voters, “has changed more in our favor than theirs,” Odinga said.

“You cannot say that 71 percent of the population say the country is
headed in the wrong direction and then the leader of that government
is still leading in the polls,” he said.

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Kenya to convert $243 mln debt in Kenya Airways into equity
Kenyan Economy


Kenya will convert its $243 million in loans to Kenya Airways into
equity, the government has said, as part of a broader restructuring to
nurse the ailing airline back to financial health.

read more


Kenya Airways small investors stake to be cut
Kenyan Economy


More than 78,000 small Kenya Airways shareholders are set for a
massive dilution of their stake in the ongoing restructuring that
could leave them owning only about 6.7 per cent of the national
carrier from 43.7 per cent.

An analysis done by Genghis Capital, an investment bank, shows that
based on Kenya Airways’ (KQ) current market price of Sh6.8 per share,
the Treasury will emerge as the biggest shareholder of the national
carrier with a 41.1 per cent stake immediately after conversion of its
debt into shares.

The Treasury has announced plans to convert its Sh25 billion debt into
ordinary KQ shares.

Eleven Kenyan banks, which collectively hold Sh23 billion worth of
Kenya Airways loans, will hold a 33.7 per cent stake in the airline
post the debt conversion as per the Genghis Capital analysis.

KLM, which is expected to inject about Sh10.3 billion into the
airline, could see its stake drop to 18.7 per cent. The Treasury is
currently the biggest KQ shareholder with a 29.8 per cent stake while
KLM controls 26.7 per cent of the carrier.

An upcoming rights issue announced Thursday by KQ could see small
shareholders who fail to participate diluted even further.

“We are looking at a possible dilution to current shareholders of
approximately 5.7 times, which translates to a diluted market price of
approximately Sh1.2 per share,” says Genghis in a research note sent
to its clients on Thursday.

“The turnaround programme in place will take time to yield solid
business results, but in the short term, the ticker is deeply dilutive
and speculative in nature,” Genghis adds.

Eleven Kenyan banks, including big lenders Equity, KCB Group,
Co-operative Bank and Commercial Bank of Africa, are expected to swap
the risky Kenya Airways loans for ordinary shares.

The restructuring is expected to be completed in a few weeks.

Genghis’ calculations are based on the assumption that the
restructuring transactions will be based on KQ’s current market price
of Sh6.8 apiece at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).

KQ’s restructuring plan also involves the government guaranteeing the
airlines loans totalling Sh77.3 billion seeking to relieve it off
repayment pressures and preserve its rating among creditors.

As at March 2016, Kenya Airways had 78, 577 shareholders on its roll,
with local individual investors making up 95.3 per cent of this
number.

Conclusions


The Banks are making out like Bandits.

This Ratio will not fly, in my opinion.

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Trans-Century reports FY Earnings here cuts FY Loss 64.34%
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           7.50
Total Shares Issued:          280284476.00
Market Capitalization:        2,102,133,570
EPS:             -1.56
PE:

FY Revenue 8.177350b vs. 11.790227b -30.643%
FY Cost of sales [7.109323b] vs. [9.259631b] -23.222%
FY Gross profit 1.068027b vs. 2.530596b -57.795%
FY Net other income 2.064969b vs. 94.903m +2,075.873%
FY Operating expenses [2.591643b] vs. [2.499253b] 3.697%
FY Profit before depreciation and finance costs 541.353m v. 126.246m +328.808%
FY Impairment losses [724.202m] vs. [371.576m] +94.900%
FY Results from operating activities [902.033m] vs. [1.047349b] -13.875%
FY Forex losses [94.012m] vs. [1.117495b] -91.587%
FY Net finance costs [713.068m] vs. [1.908724b] -62.642%
FY Loss before income tax [1.615101b] vs. [2.956073b] -45.363%
FY Loss for the year [863.890m] vs. [2.422574b] -64.340%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.56] vs. [7.09] +77.997%
Total Assets 18.911552b vs. 21.817981b -13.321%
Total Equity 3.829866b vs. 3.545770b +8.012%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [196.115m] vs.
[402.711m] -51.301%

Company Commentary

''The results were significantly affected by a temporary limitation in
accessing credit lines from our Financiers for the greater part of
2016 due to the perceived uncertainty in the resolution of the
Eurobond which matured in March 2016. Eurobond issue was resolved
during the year''
Engineering division - 12b Order Book
unprecedented increase in order book from regional utilities
strengthened Balance sheet by reducing debt exposure by 6b and
increasing Equity by 2b
Kuramo Africa Opportunity Kenyan vehicle ltd 24.99% via an allotment
of 93,776,173 new ordinary shares

Conclusions

I would have thought they have turned the proverbial corner.

But read this

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Basically, Transcentury is losing KES 2.8 bn per half year. FH 2016 PBT KES 1.2 bn included Debt write-back of KES 4 bn. FY PBT -1.6 bn. @Sang252 Replying to @wazua
Kenyan Economy


Basically, Transcentury is losing KES 2.8 bn per half year. FH 2016
PBT KES 1.2 bn included Debt write-back of KES 4 bn. FY PBT -1.6 bn.
@Sang252 Replying to @wazua

https://twitter.com/Sang252/status/873101976191385601

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.35
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.95% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

149.28 -0.01 -0.01%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +9.06% 2017 [10 month closing High]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,474.78 +1.82 +0.05%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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