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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 07th of June 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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30-DEC-2016 Optimal Portfolio at this moment looks like this 1. Long BITCOIN. 2. Long BITCOIN short Gold on Spread
Africa


My Optimal Portfolio at this moment looks like this 1. Long BITCOIN.
2. Long BITCOIN short Gold on a Spread. 3. Long Sterling versus the
Shilling. 4. Long Safaricom

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#Bitcoin just hits $2900, and keeps rising @Schuldensuehner
Africa


Gold headed for a seven-month high and the yen rose to the strongest
since April, while 10-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest since
November.

read more




Mexico's peso ignores @realDonaldTrump | With no sign of a border wall or a major crackdown on illegal immigration
Africa


Home Thoughts


The Thing about elderly Parents and My Father is 81 is that there are
moments of incredible lucidity and luminous thinking and then there
are other moments and characters [some long dead] are in his room and
I half expect to reach out and touch my Grandfather, Dad's
Grandmother, various Uncles like Gulamhuissein and as I enter this
spirit World, I recall all these personalities who were all so
remarkable in their own right. Gulamhussein Uncle was very
good-looking a Bollywood type and is evening tipple was a few tots of
Chivas Regal with freshly made somosas.

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Feb 2012 @FairmontMtKenya Mount Kenya Safari Club in Nanyuki (founded 1959) became a mecca for the international jet set.
Africa


We were not going as far as that; only two days’ journey in the
ox-cart to a bit of El Dorado my father had been fortunate enough to
buy in the bar of the Norfolk Hotel from a man wearing an Old Etonian
tie,” so says Elspeth Huxley’s The Flame Trees of Thika which is a
beautiful and lyrical book.

read more





Latest YouGov UK election model results show Conservatives 22 seats short of an overall majority
Law & Politics


Latest results just out from YouGov 6 June

Cons 304 seats vs 305 yesterday
Labour 266 vs 268 yesterday

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Majority of British voters agree with Corbyn's claim UK foreign policy increases risk of terrorism
Law & Politics


An overwhelming majority of people agree with Jeremy Corbyn that
British involvement in foreign wars has put the public at greater risk
of terrorism, according to a new poll.

The exclusive ORB survey for The Independent found 75 per cent of
people believe interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have made
atrocities on UK soil more likely.

The poll – conducted before Saturday night’s devastating attack –
comes after Mr Corbyn was lambasted for suggesting foreign policy
decisions were linked to terrorism in the UK and that the “war on
terror” had failed.

Conclusions


An Epiphany that will propel @jeremycorbyn to #GE2017 success and 10
Downing Street?

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Traders See a Buying Opportunity in Qatar Turmoil
Law & Politics


The nation’s benchmark index of stocks fell to a 16-month low, forward
contracts on the riyal that expire within 12-months touched a record
high and the extra yield investors demand to hold Qatari bonds over
U.S. debt jumped the most in a year on Monday.

Not only have Qatar’s international reserves climbed every month this
year through April to $34 billion, it’s home to a $335 billion
sovereign wealth fund, among the largest globally. Its debt-to-gross
domestic product stood at 56 percent at the end of 2016, compared with
60 percent for the United Arab Emirates, according to Central
Intelligence Agency data compiled by Bloomberg.

The decline in the QE Index this week brought the gauge’s loss in 2017
to 13 percent, the worst performance among more than 90 measures
tracked by Bloomberg globally. Qatar National Bank, the largest lender
in the Middle East, closed on Tuesday at the cheapest relative to
emerging-market peers since 2013.

Qatar’s dollar bonds due 2026 fell to 99 cents on the dollar, and
five-year credit default swaps climbed to 79 basis points, almost
double the contracts for Abu Dhabi’s debt.

Even though the riyal’s 12-month forward contracts jumped to as high
as 625 basis points on Tuesday, “betting against the peg is likely a
losing proposition,” said Win Thin, the head of emerging-market
strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, who recommends
overweight positions in equities in the United Arab Emirates and
Egypt, and is underweight Qatari stocks. The nation has pegged the
riyal at 3.64 per U.S. dollar since 2001.

“I’m looking past this spat,” Thin said.

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23 MAY 16 :: Qatar Punching Beyond its Size @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Today, Qatar is a big player in the region punching far beyond its
absolute size (estimates are that there are fewer than 300,000 Qatari
citizens) both in terms of hard and soft power. In a geopolitical
context, Qatar played a big role in toppling Muammar Gaddafi in Libya
and its influence can be seen similarly in the move to remove
President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In foreign policy terms, Qatar has
packed a big punch beyond merely hosting the US military at al Udeid
air base.

read more





Comey Told Sessions: Don't Leave Me Alone With Trump @michikokakutani
Law & Politics


@JustinTrudeau How do we get young leaders to take action in their
communities? Thanks @BarackObama for your visit & insights tonight in
my hometown.

https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/872263834559549440

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1265
Dollar Index 96.63
Japan Yen 109.44
Swiss Franc 0.9634
Pound 1.2907
Aussie 0.7536
India Rupee 64.435
South Korea Won 1123.81
Brazil Real 3.2775
Egypt Pound 18.1260
South Africa Rand 12.8776

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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1265 [Target 1.1450]
World Currencies


The euro has strengthened about 7 percent against the dollar in 2017
after dropping in each of the previous three years.

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Gold Makes Run Toward $1,300 as Risk Flares From U.K. to Mideast
Commodities


Gold has surged 13 percent in 2017, eking out gains every month, and a
Bloomberg survey this week signaled a further advance. The latest leg
up has been supported by an increase in haven demand as U.K. voters
head to the polls on Thursday, with the outcome set to dictate how the
country handles Brexit. The same day, Comey is scheduled to appear
before a Congressional panel to testify about his probe into Donald
Trump campaign’s ties to Russia.

“Rising political uncertainty continues to provide support for gold,”
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a note, citing
Comey and the U.K. polls. “This comes as the diplomatic crisis in the
Middle East involving Saudi Arabia and Qatar intensifies. This has
seen a continued rise in safe-haven buying of the precious metal. A
weaker dollar is also playing its part.”

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08-MAY-2017 :: It's a wizard of Oz moment, folks. There is no one behind the curtain
Commodities


My price target is $32.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices in extremis move
exponentially.  This move has all the ingredients for turning
exponential. Some thought they found a floor Friday, but I expect them
to be rudely awakened.

It’s a wizard of Oz moment, folks. There is no one behind the curtain
and this market is primed to crash.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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This year, there'll be four pivotal elections across the continent--namely, in Kenya, Rwanda, Angola (all in August) , and Liberia (October).
Africa


Murithi Mutiga, senior Horn of Africa analyst with the International
Crisis Group, says that this means “the potential for a contested
outcome … resulting in inter-communal conflict or violent street
protests remain high.”

read more


Star Rapper Akon Mulls IPO of His Chinese-Funded African Solar Unit
Africa


Akon, the star rapper and renewable-energy entrepreneur, is
considering an initial public offering of his Chinese-funded solar
business in Africa to fuel an intercontinental expansion.

“That’s definitely a conversation we’ve had with the financial team on
how to structure as we move forward,” Akon said in a telephone
interview. “We’ve been moving at a really rapid pace.”

In just three years, the Akon Lighting Africa initiative has completed
203,200 small-scale solar projects including the installation of
miniature grids and street lighting across 17 African countries. The
financial engine and IPO candidate behind the venture, Solektra
International LLC, is owned by its three co-founders, including Akon.
Pilot projects in Brazil are already underway with expansion plans for
China and India, according to the singer, who said his “dream” is to
eventually build a solar farm in the U.S.

Akon, whose full name is Aliaune Damala Bouga Time Bongo Puru Nacka Lu
Lu Lu Badara Akon Thiam, was born in St. Louis and raised in Senegal
until the age of seven. He’s produced two multi-platinum albums, been
nominated for five Grammy awards and collaborated with stars including
Michael Jackson. His music videos have racked up hundreds of millions
of views online.

Since releasing his last album seven years ago, Akon’s built his solar
business, Akon Lighting Africa, with credit lines of $1 billion from
Chinese backers. The venture has structured about $400 million of
solar deals to date.

read more


South Africa slips into recession as economy shrinks in Q1
Africa


South Africa slipped into technical recession for the first time since
2009 after the economy contracted in the first quarter, led by weak
manufacturing and trade sectors, Statistics South Africa said on
Tuesday.

Africa's most developed economy contracted by 0.7 percent in the first
quarter after shrinking by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last
year, the statistics agency said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a quarter-on-quarter GDP
expansion of 0.9 percent.

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SA officially enters a recession as GDP contracts 0.7% in Q1/17 following -0.3% in Q4/16 @Richards_Karin
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.16% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.8776

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt’s foreign-exchange reserves have overtaken Nigeria’s for the
first time since 2011 @business

https://twitter.com/business/status/872160933841428480

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +19.82% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.48% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Oman firm buys 40pc of fuel marketer Hass @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Muscat-based Oman Trading International (OTI) is set to acquire a 40
per cent stake in Kenyan oil marketer Hass Petroleum, marking the
latest deal in the retail business.
Hass says transaction, whose value was not disclosed, will help the
company expand in the region including by opening more service
stations and participating in capital-intensive open tender bulk
import contracts.
It is the first acquisition in Africa for OTI, a global commodities
trading company fully owned by the government of Oman.
OTI will in particular provide technical expertise and financial
backing to the Kenyan firm in an industry where scale is increasingly
becoming important.
“I am convinced that this partnership is a major step in ensuring
Hass’ continued competitiveness across the region and I am confident
that with OTI we can achieve our mutual long-term growth aspirations,”
Abdinasir Ali Hassan, chairman and founder of Hass, said in a
statement.
The proposed transaction is subject to approval by regulatory
authorities in the various countries in which Hass operates in.
The company has a market share of about two per in Kenya’s fuel retail
market and also exports products to regional markets such as Uganda,
Rwanda, and South Sudan. It on top deals in lubricants and liquefied
petroleum gas.
“We are delighted to move onto the next phase of growth for OTI,
agreeing our first major investment into Africa with Hass,” Talal
Hamid Al-Awfi, OTI’s chief executive, said in the statement.

read more


Kenya will offer $750 million in guarantees to Kenya Airways' existing creditors to help the heavily-indebted carrier secure financing from other sources to complete its recovery, a cabinet document showed on Tuesday.
Kenyan Economy


The guarantees, approved by the cabinet, will cover $525 million owed
to the U.S. Exim Bank and the rest to local lenders, said the document
seen by Reuters.

The airline, partly-owned by Air France KLM and the Kenyan government,
has struggled to return to profit after tourist traffic slumped four
years ago following a spate of attacks by Somalia-based Islamist
militants.

The government will also convert its existing loans to the carrier
into equity, it said. It was not immediately clear how much it has
lent the carrier, but a source at the airline said it was a
"significant" amount lent over time.

The plan to guarantee the existing debt will be taken to the National
Assembly for approval, the government said.

"The guarantees would be in exchange for material concessions to be
provided as part of the financial restructuring which would secure
future funding for the company," the cabinet document said, without
giving details on the concessions.

The government would not provide additional cash as part of the
restructuring of the airline, it added.

The debt owed to the U.S Exim bank is related to the financing of the
purchase of the carrier's Boeing planes.

Kenya Airways says the financial restructuring will involve
restructuring debt and securing additional capital to help dig itself
out of a position of negative equity, and attain a better balance
between cash flow and debt repayments.

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@Barclays_Kenya +18.75% over 4 weeks [Barclays and Barclays Africa refers]
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           9.50
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        51,599,592,000
EPS:             1.36
PE:                 6.985

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@StandardKenya Standard Group share price data here +116.66% in 2017 [Best Performer in 2017]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           35.75
Total Shares Issued:          81731808.00
Market Capitalization:        2,921,912,136
EPS:             2.14
PE:                 16.706

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.355
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.18% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

148.25 -1.38 -0.92%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +8.51% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,457.29 -23.49 -0.67%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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N.S.E Today


The International markets are transfixed by a Trifecta of events
tomorrow ''Super Thursday''. That Trifecta includes the General
Election in the United kingdom [where Jeremy Corbyn has made up some
ground], the Comey Testimony in the US and the ECB meeting.
Gold as been firm as you look and was last at 1290.00 +7.00% Year to
date and is a geopolitical proxy. Many Folks believe the epicentre of
geopolitical risk is actually Washington.
BITCOIN is more than +200% since the beginning of the year.
The Blockade of Qatar by its erstwhile GCC allies is also another
noteworthy occurrence. Qatar markets have taken a fearful beating.
The Nairobi All Share rebounded +0.7% to close at 149.29. The All
Share is in a fully fledged bull market and is +11.96% in 2017 and
-0.52% below a 22 high reached on 2nd June.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied +0.45% to close at 3472.96 a fresh 10 month
closing High.
Equity Turnover clocked 863.642m which verified todays bullish drive higher.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom bounced +1.13% to close at 22.25 and traded 15,209m shares
and will set a fresh record high as early as next week.

The Government of Kenya will offer $750 million in guarantees to Kenya
Airways'
existing creditors to help the heavily-indebted carrier
secure financing from other sources to complete its recovery, a
cabinet document showed on Tuesday. The government will also convert
its existing loans to the carrier into equity, it said.  The plan to
guarantee the existing debt will be taken to the National Assembly for
approval, the government said. The Key issue for shareholders is
around the GOK and any conversion of debt into Equity which will
obviously be dilutive. Kenya Airways was if I am not mistaken the
first IPO, shareholders have been plenty diluted. Therefore, I think
it behoves the Government to skip any debt to equity conversion
completely. FY Results confirmed there is light at the end of tunnel
and whats certain is that if we really are serious about being a
Hub/Transit State in the region, it was a sina qua non that we had to
have a functioning and successful airline. This was a National
Interest issue. Kenya Airways rebounded +3.00% to close at 6.85 and
traded 323,800 shares and I suspect the bounce was on the basis tat
the GOK dilution will be designed to be de minimis.

Standard Group corrected -2.79% off a 2017 high to close at 34.75.
Standard Group is the best performing share at the Securities Exchange
and remains +110.6% in 2017.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Barclays Bank firmed +1.05% to close at 9.60 a Fresh 2017 closing
High. The certainty around the Barclays Africa divestment by Barclays
PLC with PIC SA taking up an anchor shareholder position has lent
strength to Barclays Bank's share price which is +20.00% over 4 weeks.
COOP Bank was heavily traded and closed at 17.50 [+32.57% YTD] and
6.811m shares were traded.
NIC Bank firmed +0.75% to close at a 2017 high of 33.25 and traded
1.035m shares. NIC Bank is +32.98% in 2017.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen firmed +0.63% to close at a 2017 High of 7.90 and is now
+36.20% in 2017. PIC SA has emerged as the No.2 Shareholder after GOK
and underpins the price.

EABL has badly lagged the market rebound and today played catch up
bouncing +2.14% higher to close at 238.00 and traded 337,000 shares.

Mumias Sugar was uplifted +6.25% to close at 0.85 but remains a penny
stock and is -34.61% in 2017.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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