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Wednesday 14th of June 2017 |
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Macro Thoughts
The Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. eastern time (1800 GMT) on Wednesday at the end of a two-day policy meeting, followed by a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. |
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Andy Warhol's 'first selfie' expected to fetch (pound)7m at Sotheby's auction Africa |
The image was created in 1963, using a strip of photographs taken in a New York dime store photo booth
Emma Baker, contemporary art specialist at the auction house, said: “It is the moment when Warhol the icon was born.
“Everybody is looking to create their own brand now. The selfie is so ubiquitous and it’s all about self-image.
“But Warhol really was at the forefront of this whole phenomenon, which has only just caught up to his prophetic way of thinking.”
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So looking forward to being in the Samburu with Hannah this weekend Africa |
In the middle of the reserve, the Ewaso Ng'iro flows through doum palm groves and thick riverine forests. It provides water, without which the game in this arid region could not survive.
The Samburu National Reserve was one of the two areas in which conservationists George Adamson and Joy Adamson raised Elsa the Lioness made famous in the best selling book and award winning movie Born Free.
The last time we were in the Samburu I took this Photo
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Russian Breach of 39 States Threatens Future U.S. Elections Law & Politics |
Russia’s cyberattack on the U.S. electoral system before Donald Trump’s election was far more widespread than has been publicly revealed, including incursions into voter databases and software systems in almost twice as many states as previously reported.
In Illinois, investigators found evidence that cyber intruders tried to delete or alter voter data. The hackers accessed software designed to be used by poll workers on Election Day, and in at least one state accessed a campaign finance database. Details of the wave of attacks, in the summer and fall of 2016, were provided by three people with direct knowledge of the U.S. investigation into the matter. In all, the Russian hackers hit systems in a total of 39 states, one of them said.
The scope and sophistication so concerned Obama administration officials that they took an unprecedented step -- complaining directly to Moscow over a modern-day “red phone.” In October, two of the people said, the White House contacted the Kremlin on the back channel to offer detailed documents of what it said was Russia’s role in election meddling and to warn that the attacks risked setting off a broader conflict.
“They’re coming after America,” Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee investigating Russian interference in the election. “They will be back.”
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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." Law & Politics |
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal. The first thing is plausible deniability.
The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
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05-DEC-2016 :: hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Law & Politics |
However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories: The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”. He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command: “We have a deviate, Tomahawk.” “We copy. There’s a voice.” “We have gross oscillation here.” “ There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.” “We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “Thank you, Colorado.” “It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.” “It was a voice,” I told them. “We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.” The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”. “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
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President Trump has adopted the strategy that was recommended to the shady protagonist of Nikolai Gogol's "Dead Souls." New Yorker Law & Politics |
Donald Trump may not realize it, but he has adopted the strategy that was recommended to Pavel Ivanovich Chichikov, the shady protagonist of Nikolai Gogol’s “Dead Souls,” whose lawyer (in the translation by Richard Pevear and Larissa Volokhonsky) advises him that “as soon as you see that the case is reaching a denouement and can conveniently be resolved, make sure—not really to justify and defend yourself—no, but simply to confuse things by introducing new and even unrelated issues.” The aim is “to confuse, to confuse, nothing more . . . to introduce into the case some other, unrelated circumstances that will entangle other people in it, to make it complicated.”
That’s an excellent way to stay one or two steps ahead, although the approach is fallible—after all, you may run out of places to step. Trump keeps up the confusion. He did so recently by withdrawing from the Paris climate accord; he did so again by tweeting a shift in policy vis-à-vis Qatar, which further roiled the Middle East and undermined his own Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. In the aftermath of a deadly attack on Londoners, Trump started a Twitter rant against Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, accusing him of saying something that he never said: “At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!’ ” There is no way to prove that Khan’s religion—he is a Muslim—motivated that crude outburst, but it’s fair to ask if it would have happened if Boris Johnson were still the mayor. My colleague John Cassidy asked, “How low can he stoop?” The answer appears to be “Just wait and see.”
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Pound Enters Make-or-Break Mode as Key Technical Levels Tested International Trade |
Sterling has once again rebounded after visiting $1.2630-40 area, forming a triple bottom on the daily charts. Real-money names were also seen on the bid, according to Europe-based traders. Given these accounts have a long-term horizon in mind and tend to stay sidelined amid political woes, this demand could represent squaring of shorts. CFTC positioning shows that for the week ended June 6, pound shorts among asset managers and institutional investors were close to their lowest levels since October 2015.
Data showed that U.K. annual inflation rose more than forecast in May to a four-year high and cable initially nosedived by 30 pips to $1.2687 as higher consumer prices amid subdued wage pressures are seen as a drag on the economy. Yet, the move was short-lived as political developments and Brexit negotiations matter more for now.
A similar technical development was seen in euro-sterling as the pair failed to meaningfully rise above the 50 percent retreat of its drop since the October flash crash. A daily close above 0.8860 could open the way for the shared currency to revisit its November highs above 0.9000. Demand has risen this week for upside exposure through vanilla calls and topside reverse knock-out structures, said the traders, who asked not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
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idea that Qatar is solely responsible for the growth and development of Middle Eastern terrorism is laughable Emerging Markets |
The idea that Qatar is solely responsible for the growth and development of Middle Eastern terrorism is laughable on its face: that narrative simply won’t stand even the most careless scrutiny. And the proposition that Saudi Arabia is any kind of anti-terrorist bulwark is a cruel joke. That the Trump administration is taking this line is absolutely criminal: it amounts to appeasing and succoring the epicenter of radical Islamic terrorism.
The Saudi-Qatari conflict has all the hallmarks of a joint Saudi-Israeli operation, complete with cyber-hacking, a full-scale propaganda war, and a clueless Uncle Sam stupidly falling for a brazen deception. What’s amazing is that, despite the plethora of evidence that the whole thing is a pretty transparent put up job, the usual suspects continue to get away with it.
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Roughly 23m pastoralists scattered across the Horn of Africa and Kenya @TheEconomist Africa |
These are problems felt by many of the roughly 23m pastoralists scattered across the Horn of Africa and Kenya. Soaring population growth in pastoral areas is putting ever more pressure on already dwindling resources. Rich commercial herders, some with animals numbering in the thousands, monopolise the best land. Mushrooming towns encroach on the ranges.
Attempts to address this have been half-hearted at best. Communal land rights are weak across the region. And governments tend to look unfavourably on mobility: social services, especially schools, are rarely designed to cope with it. Baligubadle’s school is closed because its teachers have moved elsewhere, along with their animals. Pastoralist children are generally less educated than their sedentary peers, making it harder for them to find other jobs. Those who do settle in towns often find themselves destitute.
Pastoralism in the east African drylands persists despite such Malthusian pressures. In a harsh environment, many see it as the only way of staying alive. Repeated attempts to settle populations and introduce large-scale irrigated farming have a history of failure in the region, not least because they have often involved coercion.
In Somaliland less than a tenth of the land is reckoned to be suited to agriculture. So the choice is between carrying on as nomads, or getting educated and doing something completely different. Of his children’s future, Mr Abokor says he hopes “their life will change”.
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12-MAY-2017 :: @BobCollymore deserved another term at @Safaricomltd @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
Safaricom has done some serious heavy-lifting. CEO Bob Collymore has presided over a golden age of shareholder value creation, presiding over a +322.68% share price appreciation during his tenure and that is juiced ‘’bigly’’ when you factor in the dividends that Safaricom has paid out over that period.
In fact, I know Collymore is big on the sustainability agenda, but he is a CEO who can afford to be because shareholder returns rank in the top 1 percentile in the world.
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