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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 14th of June 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

The Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 2
p.m. eastern time (1800 GMT) on Wednesday at the end of a two-day
policy meeting, followed by a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen.

read more




Andy Warhol's 'first selfie' expected to fetch (pound)7m at Sotheby's auction
Africa


The image was created in 1963, using a strip of photographs taken in a
New York dime store photo booth

Emma Baker, contemporary art specialist at the auction house, said:
“It is the moment when Warhol the icon was born.

“Everybody is looking to create their own brand now. The selfie is so
ubiquitous and it’s all about self-image.

“But Warhol really was at the forefront of this whole phenomenon,
which has only just caught up to his prophetic way of thinking.”

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So looking forward to being in the Samburu with Hannah this weekend
Africa


In the middle of the reserve, the Ewaso Ng'iro flows through doum palm
groves and thick riverine forests. It provides water, without which
the game in this arid region could not survive.

The Samburu National Reserve was one of the two areas in which
conservationists George Adamson and Joy Adamson raised Elsa the
Lioness made famous in the best selling book and award winning movie
Born Free.

The last time we were in the Samburu I took this Photo

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Russian Breach of 39 States Threatens Future U.S. Elections
Law & Politics


Russia’s cyberattack on the U.S. electoral system before Donald
Trump’s election was far more widespread than has been publicly
revealed, including incursions into voter databases and software
systems in almost twice as many states as previously reported.

In Illinois, investigators found evidence that cyber intruders tried
to delete or alter voter data. The hackers accessed software designed
to be used by poll workers on Election Day, and in at least one state
accessed a campaign finance database. Details of the wave of attacks,
in the summer and fall of 2016, were provided by three people with
direct knowledge of the U.S. investigation into the matter. In all,
the Russian hackers hit systems in a total of 39 states, one of them
said.

The scope and sophistication so concerned Obama administration
officials that they took an unprecedented step -- complaining directly
to Moscow over a modern-day “red phone.” In October, two of the people
said, the White House contacted the Kremlin on the back channel to
offer detailed documents of what it said was Russia’s role in election
meddling and to warn that the attacks risked setting off a broader
conflict.

“They’re coming after America,” Comey told the Senate Intelligence
Committee investigating Russian interference in the election. “They
will be back.”

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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics


I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal.  The first thing is plausible
deniability.

The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.

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05-DEC-2016 :: hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.
Law & Politics


However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo,
who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short
stories:
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“ There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on
the step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

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President Trump has adopted the strategy that was recommended to the shady protagonist of Nikolai Gogol's "Dead Souls." New Yorker
Law & Politics


Donald Trump may not realize it, but he has adopted the strategy that
was recommended to Pavel Ivanovich Chichikov, the shady protagonist of
Nikolai Gogol’s “Dead Souls,” whose lawyer (in the translation by
Richard Pevear and Larissa Volokhonsky) advises him that “as soon as
you see that the case is reaching a denouement and can conveniently be
resolved, make sure—not really to justify and defend yourself—no, but
simply to confuse things by introducing new and even unrelated
issues.” The aim is “to confuse, to confuse, nothing more . . . to
introduce into the case some other, unrelated circumstances that will
entangle other people in it, to make it complicated.”

That’s an excellent way to stay one or two steps ahead, although the
approach is fallible—after all, you may run out of places to step.
Trump keeps up the confusion. He did so recently by withdrawing from
the Paris climate accord; he did so again by tweeting a shift in
policy vis-à-vis Qatar, which further roiled the Middle East and
undermined his own Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. In the aftermath
of a deadly attack on Londoners, Trump started a Twitter rant against
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, accusing him of saying something that
he never said: “At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and
Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!’ ” There is no
way to prove that Khan’s religion—he is a Muslim—motivated that crude
outburst, but it’s fair to ask if it would have happened if Boris
Johnson were still the mayor. My colleague John Cassidy asked, “How
low can he stoop?” The answer appears to be “Just wait and see.”

read more




Pound Enters Make-or-Break Mode as Key Technical Levels Tested
International Trade


Sterling has once again rebounded after visiting $1.2630-40 area,
forming a triple bottom on the daily charts. Real-money names were
also seen on the bid, according to Europe-based traders. Given these
accounts have a long-term horizon in mind and tend to stay sidelined
amid political woes, this demand could represent squaring of shorts.
CFTC positioning shows that for the week ended June 6, pound shorts
among asset managers and institutional investors were close to their
lowest levels since October 2015.

Data showed that U.K. annual inflation rose more than forecast in May
to a four-year high and cable initially nosedived by 30 pips to
$1.2687 as higher consumer prices amid subdued wage pressures are seen
as a drag on the economy. Yet, the move was short-lived as political
developments and Brexit negotiations matter more for now.

A similar technical development was seen in euro-sterling as the pair
failed to meaningfully rise above the 50 percent retreat of its drop
since the October flash crash. A daily close above 0.8860 could open
the way for the shared currency to revisit its November highs above
0.9000. Demand has risen this week for upside exposure through vanilla
calls and topside reverse knock-out structures, said the traders, who
asked not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to speak
publicly.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1216
Dollar Index 96.97
Japan Yen 110.08
Swiss Franc 0.9687
Pound 1.2746
Aussie 0.7545
India Rupee 64.345
South Korea Won 1126.38
Brazil Real 3.3158
Egypt Pound 18.1370
South Africa Rand 12.7695

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idea that Qatar is solely responsible for the growth and development of Middle Eastern terrorism is laughable
Emerging Markets


The idea that Qatar is solely responsible for the growth and
development of Middle Eastern terrorism is laughable on its face: that
narrative simply won’t stand even the most careless scrutiny. And the
proposition that Saudi Arabia is any kind of anti-terrorist bulwark is
a cruel joke. That the Trump administration is taking this line is
absolutely criminal: it amounts to appeasing and succoring the
epicenter of radical Islamic terrorism.

The Saudi-Qatari conflict has all the hallmarks of a joint
Saudi-Israeli operation, complete with cyber-hacking, a full-scale
propaganda war, and a clueless Uncle Sam stupidly falling for a brazen
deception. What’s amazing is that, despite the plethora of evidence
that the whole thing is a pretty transparent put up job, the usual
suspects continue to get away with it.

read more








The most chilling line in Mr Wimmer's piece on state formation is this: "The domestic struggle over who 'owns' a new state does eventually come to an end - on average, after 60 years." FT
Africa


The good news is that, by this reckoning, most African states are
nearly there. The bad news is that South Sudan has more than 50 years
to go.

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Roughly 23m pastoralists scattered across the Horn of Africa and Kenya @TheEconomist
Africa


These are problems felt by many of the roughly 23m pastoralists
scattered across the Horn of Africa and Kenya. Soaring population
growth in pastoral areas is putting ever more pressure on already
dwindling resources. Rich commercial herders, some with animals
numbering in the thousands, monopolise the best land. Mushrooming
towns encroach on the ranges.

Attempts to address this have been half-hearted at best. Communal land
rights are weak across the region. And governments tend to look
unfavourably on mobility: social services, especially schools, are
rarely designed to cope with it. Baligubadle’s school is closed
because its teachers have moved elsewhere, along with their animals.
Pastoralist children are generally less educated than their sedentary
peers, making it harder for them to find other jobs. Those who do
settle in towns often find themselves destitute.

Pastoralism in the east African drylands persists despite such
Malthusian pressures. In a harsh environment, many see it as the only
way of staying alive. Repeated attempts to settle populations and
introduce large-scale irrigated farming have a history of failure in
the region, not least because they have often involved coercion.

In Somaliland less than a tenth of the land is reckoned to be suited
to agriculture. So the choice is between carrying on as nomads, or
getting educated and doing something completely different. Of his
children’s future, Mr Abokor says he hopes “their life will change”.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.92% [90 day lows]
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.7714

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1370

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +23.32% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.34% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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.@Safaricomltd closed at a record high of 23.75 +24.02% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           23.50
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        941,537,558,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 19.421

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12-MAY-2017 :: @BobCollymore deserved another term at @Safaricomltd @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


Safaricom has done some serious heavy-lifting. CEO Bob Collymore has
presided over a golden age of shareholder value creation, presiding
over a +322.68% share price appreciation during his tenure and that is
juiced ‘’bigly’’ when you factor in the dividends that Safaricom has
paid out over that period.

In fact, I know Collymore is big on the sustainability agenda, but he
is a CEO who can afford to be because shareholder returns rank in the
top 1 percentile in the world.

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Diamond Trust Bank share data here +27.11% 2017 [2017 closing High]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:           150.00
Total Shares Issued:          266321115.00
Market Capitalization:        39,948,167,250
EPS:             26.94
PE:                 5.568

read more







 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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