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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 19th of June 2017

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19-JUN-2017 :: A Trip to Samburu and how everything is being uber'ed

Hannah [my ten year Old] and I had been yearning to get out of town,
see the Milky Way, go somewhere where there was a road and we would
not know what we were going to find around the corner. And what I have
found is that those sorts of journeys always start at Wilson Airport.
i had wanted to go North into Laikipia and we decided to go to the
Samburu. I had been thinking about global warming and in many respects
and a little counterintuitively the Horn of Africa has become a sort
of epicentre of global warming imperilling 19m Pastoralists [in the
East African region]. I met Mrs. Douglas-Hamilton on the flight and
she said Kuki Gullman was recovering. I had been reading Aidan
Hartley's articles in The Spectator where he spoke of prowling the
nights waiting to hear warnings that his fence had been breached. I
had read that Livestock in Kenya had surged +60% in 6 Years, our
Population is expected to top 80,000,000 by 2050. The Knee-jerk
reaction of any Trader would be to think

''How do i short this thing?''

I had recently read that the Opposition Leader had said the following
to the Times of London

“These ranches are too big and the people don’t even live there,”
Odinga told The Times newspaper. “They live in Europe and only come
once in a while.”

And I do believe once you start degrading Titles anywhere, all Titles
get degraded very quickly.

It was a beautiful experience at Saruni, which sits in the Kalama conservancy.

As i interacted with our Samburu Driver, a Maasai [who was in charge
of the front office] and various other folks who came from the smaller
tribes, I asked about the drought and was probing as to how everyone
was going to adjust. One Fellow said, we are sending our Kids to
school now [They would have previously been looking after the
livestock] Another Fellow said, when I get a day off I go back to my
village and tell them about global warming. I asked Johan, Just How
old is this landscape? And he said look its really ancient, the Rift
Valley formation is like just yesterday in comparison.

And I thought to myself we are all getting ''uber'ed'' whether we are
in Nairobi or right at the Frontier like the now parched Ewaso Nyiro
river and we all need to work out strategies so that we don't end up
like Kodak.

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In praise of pachyderms Conserve elephants. They hold a scientific mirror up to humans Economist

In August 2016 the result of the Great Elephant Census, the most
extensive count of a wild species ever attempted, suggested that about
350,000 African savannah elephants remain alive. This is down by
140,000 since 2007.

According to George Wittemyer of Save the Elephants (STE), a Kenyan
research-and-conservation charity, an average elephant living in and
around Samburu National Reserve, in northern Kenya, ranges over 1,500
square kilometres during the course of a year, and may travel as much
as 60km a day.

In 1993 Dr Douglas-Hamilton, who had held various conservation-related
jobs in the interim, followed suit by creating STE and recruiting Dr
Wittemyer to set up a research project in Samburu. That project now
monitors 70 family groups comprising about 300 adult females and their
offspring, and also around 200 adult males. Since they began work, Dr
Wittemyer and his team have collected more than 25,000 field
observations of what the animals are up to, and around 4m individual
satellite locations.

Dr Wittemyer argues that, human beings aside, no species on Earth has
a more complex society than that of elephants. And elephant society
does indeed have parallels with the way humans lived before the
invention of agriculture.

The nuclei of their social arrangements are groups of four or five
females and their young that are led by a matriarch who is mother,
grandmother, great-grandmother, sister or aunt to most of them. Though
males depart their natal group when maturity beckons at the age of 12,
females usually remain in it throughout their lives.

Within a group, most adult females have, at any given moment, a
single, dependent calf. They will not give birth again until this
offspring is self-sufficient, which takes about four years. From a
male point of view, sexually receptive females are therefore a rare
commodity, to be sought out and often fought over. Such competition
means that, though capable of fatherhood from the age of about 14, a
male will be lucky to achieve it before he is in his 20s. Until that
time arrives, he will be seen off by stronger rivals.

First of all, families are part of wider “kinship” groups that come
together and separate as the fancy takes them. Families commune with
each other in this way about 10% of the time. On top of this, each
kinship group is part of what Dr Douglas-Hamilton, a Scot, calls a
clan. Clans tend to gather in the dry season, when the amount of
habitat capable of supporting elephants is restricted. Within a clan,
relations are generally friendly. All clan members are known to one
another and, since a clan will usually have at least 100 adult
members, and may have twice that, this means an adult (an adult
female, at least) can recognise and have meaningful social relations
with that many other individuals.

A figure of between 100 and 200 acquaintances is similar to the number
of people with whom a human being can maintain a meaningful social
relationship—a value known as Dunbar’s number, after Robin Dunbar, the
psychologist who proposed it. Dunbar’s number for people is about 150.

they can use novel objects as tools to obtain out-of-reach food
without trial and error beforehand. This is a trick some other
species, such as great apes, can manage, but which most animals find

Already, the price of the stuff in China has come down by two-thirds,
from a peak of $2,100 a kilogram in 2014 to $730 earlier this year.

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Global Trends report, a statistical assessment of refugees, asylum seekers and people forcibly displaced from their homes, reflected a worsening of conflict, mayhem and persecution.
Law & Politics

The new total of 65.6 million people displaced from their homes is
300,000 higher than the 2015 number, which had been the highest since
World War II.

The 2016 report showed that the number of refugees worldwide reached
22.5 million, the most ever. More people fled the conflict in Syria —
5.5 million — than any other country, but the biggest new source of
refugees was what the report called “the disastrous breakdown of peace
efforts” in South Sudan. Nearly 750,000 people fled that fledgling
country last year.

There were 40.3 million people displaced inside their own countries at
the end of 2016, slightly fewer than the 40.8 million at the end of
2015. The report attributed that slight reduction in part to people
who had returned to their homes, offsetting the number of new people
who had fled. Still, the report said, many returnees “did so in less
than ideal circumstances and facing uncertain prospects.”

Of the 65.6 million displaced people in the world, 10.3 million had
become displaced in 2016. “This equates to one person becoming
displaced every three seconds,” the report said, “less than the time
it takes to read this sentence.”

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Finsbury Park crash in London @Business
Law & Politics

-vehicle struck people coming out of mosque
-several casualties
-one arrested

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12 JAN 15 :: Europe Off Balance The Star
Law & Politics

The arrival of the asymmetric threat on the streets of Paris was
deeply unsettling and will surely keep Europe off-balance and presages
a ‘new normal’.

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A U.S. warplane shot down a Syrian army jet on Sunday in the southern Raqqa countryside
Law & Politics

A U.S. warplane shot down a Syrian army jet on Sunday in the southern
Raqqa countryside, with Washington saying the jet had dropped bombs
near U.S.-backed forces and Damascus saying the plane was downed while
flying a mission against Islamic State militants.

A Syrian army statement released on Syrian state television said the
plane crashed and the pilot was missing in the first such downing of a
Syrian jet by the United States since the start of the conflict in

The army statement said it took place on Sunday afternoon near a
village called Rasafah.

The "flagrant attack was an attempt to undermine the efforts of the
army as the only effective force capable with its allies ... in
fighting terrorism across its territory," the Syrian army said.


Might is Right discuss.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1192
Dollar Index 97.17
Japan Yen 111.0208
Swiss Franc 0.9738
Pound 1.2767
Aussie 0.7610
India Rupee 64.355
South Korea Won 1131.31
Brazil Real 3.2909
Egypt Pound 18.1415
South Africa Rand 12.8091

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Gold 6 month INO 1251.33

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Kofi Annan warns future of DR Congo in 'grave danger' FT

Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary-general, and nine former African
presidents have warned that the “future of the Democratic Republic of
Congo is in grave danger” because of President Joseph Kabila’s
apparent determination to cling to power.

In rare public criticism of an African leader, Mr Annan said in a
statement they felt “obliged to sound the alarm before it’s too late”
to address what has become “an acute political crisis” in the
sprawling, resource-rich country.

The signatories included Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo, former
presidents of South Africa and Nigeria respectively.

Mr Kabila should have stepped down last December at the end of his
constitutional mandate. But he refused because no election had been
held to choose a successor and the courts ruled he could remain in

One Kinshasa-based diplomat said the uncertainty was likely to last
until Mr Kabila “decides whether he makes a big play to stay in
power”. “Is he going to try and change the constitution and rule
through a state of emergency or is he going to sort his way into
finding a loyal successor?” he said. “I’m not sure even he’s decided
and the clock is ticking.”


He is the Box Seat, meanwhile the DR Congo is cratering.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.35% 2017

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.8091


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1415


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg


Nigeria closes at a 10-month high, up 35% from May 8 low
@charliebilello  Jun 17


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +25.81% 2017 [2 year Highs]


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +14.51% 2017


MORE than 400 people invade Acacia mining's North Mara Gold Mine in
Tarime, demands fair share of resource payments for their land


Gunmen attack and seize hostages at luxury resort in #Mali @dwnews


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"Both sides communicate that the elections have already been won," Cernicky told DW.
Kenyan Economy

The head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kenya, Jan Cernicky,
said it was very likely that whoever loses this year’s election will
head to the streets to challenge the outcome.

“Both sides communicate that the elections have already been won,”
Cernicky told DW. “If someone loses, it will be the electoral
commission or the law courts, but not the one who received fewer

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Crown Paints could become the first company in the country to buy back its own shares after the Nairobi Securities Exchange
Kenyan Economy

Crown Paints could become the first company in the country to buy back
its own shares after the Nairobi Securities Exchange  -listed firm
proposed to spend hundreds of millions of shillings to acquire 10.6
million units of its stock in the near term.
The share buyback plan is among the resolutions that will require
shareholders’ approval at the annual general meeting coming Tuesday.
The new Companies Act allows firms to buy their own shares, with Crown
becoming the first listed company to propose a definite plan to
execute such a transaction.
“The company be and is hereby authorised to purchase a maximum of
10,677,150 ordinary shares representing up to 15 per cent of the
company’s current issued share capital as quoted on the Nairobi
Securities Exchange,” Crown says in its AGM notice.

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She longs for Ol Ari Nyiro, "The Place of Dark Springs", an 88,000-acre nature reserve in Kenya's central highlands
Kenyan Economy

She longs for Ol Ari Nyiro, “The Place of Dark Springs”, an
88,000-acre nature reserve in Kenya’s central highlands overlooking
the Great Rift Valley, where her husband and son are buried and which
has become, in recent months, the epicentre of a violent struggle
pitting private landowners against semi-nomadic herders.

Gallmann dismisses talk of banditry (the government’s preferred term
for the attacks) and of desperate drought-stricken pastoralists
seeking pasture (another common framing of the issue). “The people who
attacked me, they were militia,” she says firmly. “Prior to every
election I’ve seen there has been a similar build-up of violence.” But
she has never been shot before.

In Ol Ari Nyiro, on the western edge of Laikipia, they found their
imagined Africa. In her best-selling memoir, I Dreamed of Africa,
Gallmann describes, “The uncanny feeling of déjà vu… as if I had
already been there.” From the extravagantly folded ridges of the
ranch’s highlands, “Africa was there below us in all its unsolved

A pair of yellow-barked fever trees mark their graves outside her
Laikipia home and she plans to be buried alongside them when she dies.
“I am a bit of a veteran at overcoming tragedies and challenges,” she
says with a smile that stops short of her pale blue eyes. “Losing
someone you love is a test of endurance.”

Some ranches have closed and some owners are considering selling, but
others, among them Gallmann, are hunkering down. “They are going to
get tired of it. I know I will outlast them. There is no doubt in my

“It has shifted from local cattle-rustling to a well-planned and
executed mission,” he says, blaming Pokot politicians for driving the
violence. “This thing is like a cartel, because it has taken a
commercial shape, and they are using it as a form of territorial

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N.S.E Today

African Equity Markets swung sharply higher at the end of May as a big
macro allocation into Emerging markets started to spill over into
African Equity markets.
The Nigerian All Share, for example, with a President absent in London
and a Caracas like FX trading regime is now +25.81% in 2017 and at a 2
Year High.
Here in Nairobi we entered a bull market at the end of May [+20% from
a low] and we have seen a significant uplift in prices.
My Sense is that those who have bagged some big gains are surely going
to take some tips off the table now and that this Bull is mature, for

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom retreated -2.13% to close at 23.00 and traded 3.425m shares
on the day that Safaricom announced the launch of a Safaricom music
App. This might represent the Tip of the Spear with regard to a major
e-commerce Roll-Out.

“Skiza is great but you need to be able to stream your music. People
need to be able to stream and buy your full tracks. That is why, we
are launching a Safaricom music app where you can put your music for
sale. I don’t believe your music should be free, it doesn’t work for
me,” he added.

Safaricom is +20.1044% in 2017 and firmly in a bull trend.

Kenya Airways maintained its 3 day rebound [after a steep sell-off]
and rallied +2.63% to close at 5.85 and was trading at 6.00 +5.26% at
the Finish Line. Kenya Airways traded 777,500 shares.

Standard Group rallied +6.85% to close at 39.00 a Fresh 2017 high and
is +136.36% in 2017 which makes it the best performer at the
Securities Exchange this Year.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB Group corrected -2.72% lower to close at 36.00 and traded 4.573m
shares. KCB has corrected -10.00% lower this month but remains +25.21%
through 2017.
Equity Group retreated -2.56% to close at 38.00 and was trading
session Lows of 36.50 -6.41% at the closing Bell. Equity Group has
corrected -5.00% off a 2017 high of 40.00 reached 15th June and is
+26.66% through 2017.

National Bank surged a further +8.62% to close at a Fresh 2017 high of
10.70. National Bank is +57.35% this month and since the KCB
share-swap/acquisition story broke.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL pushed on +1.56% to close at a Fresh 2017 high of 260.00 and as
been playing catch-up of late and is +6.55% in 2017.

KenGen rallied +2.33% to score a fresh 2017 closing High of 8.80 and
is now plus a blistering +51.72% in 2017.

Crown Paints announced the following:

“The company be and is hereby authorised to purchase a maximum of
10,677,150 ordinary shares representing up to 15 per cent of the
company’s current issued share capital as quoted on the Nairobi
Securities Exchange,” Crown says in its AGM notice.

Crown Paints trades on a P/E of more than 30 and therefore this
proposed share buy-back is expensive on the global Buy-back scale.
Crown Paints traded 600 shares at 62.00 +8.77% and is +47.619% in

Mumias Sugar closed +4.34% at 1.20 its highest closing price this
year. Mumias Sugar is up a mind boggling 60% this month but this is
high beta and very speculative and a signal that this bull rally at
the NSE is seriously mature.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2017

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