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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 21st of June 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Prompt Board Next day settlement
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A hazy sunrise arrives for what is supposed to be the hottest day for over 40 years. #Gravesend @LondonPortAuth @ThePhotoHour @StormHour @girlaboutthames
Africa


The summer solstice (or estival solstice), also known as midsummer,
occurs when a planet's rotational axis, or geographic pole on either
its northern or its southern hemisphere, is most inclined toward the
star that it orbits. On the summer solstice, Earth's maximum axial
tilt toward the Sun is 23.44°. (Likewise, the Sun's declination from
the celestial equator is +23.44° in the Northern Sky and −23.44° in
the Southern Sky.) This happens twice each year (once in each
hemisphere), when the Sun reaches its highest position in the sky as
seen from the north or south pole.

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Every time you smile at someone, it is an action of love, a gift to that person, a beautiful thing. -Mother Teresa
Africa


From Refugee camp to the cover of @Allure_magazine ! Thank you for
the opportunity of a life time ! I am so beyond grateful ❤️ @Kinglimaa

https://twitter.com/Kinglimaa/status/877181177894973440

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Theresa May's Queen's Speech 'will be her first and last', Tories admit
Law & Politics


Ms May will also be forced to endure the embarrassment of putting her
Queen’s Speech before Parliament without knowing if it can be passed,
as she wrote it having failed to secure the support of Democratic
Unionist Party MPs needed for her Commons majority.

Conclusions


You see it in sport when someone just chokes. Theresa May choked big.

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Australia Suspends Airstrikes in Syria After Russia Threatens U.S.-led Coalition Aircraft Haaretz
Law & Politics


Australia halts strikes 'as a precautionary measure' after Russia
warns it would treat aircraft west of Euphrates as potential targets,
following U.S. downing of Syrian military jet

read more



Saudi king replaces crown prince with favoured son @FT
Law & Politics


Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has replaced Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Nayef with his favoured son Mohammed bin Salman, overturning the
established succession order to ease his son’s ultimate path to the
throne.

The crown prince was stripped of his role as second in line to the
throne and removed from his post as interior minister, where he
oversaw domestic security and counter-terrorism policy.

The radical shift in royal succession, made by royal decrees issued on
Wednesday, completes the elevation of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, architect of the oil-rich kingdom’s ambitious economic reform
plans and foreign policy.

Conclusions

If you wished to hasten the Pahlavi moment, this is how to do it. The
House of Saud is a BIG SHORT.

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BND spy agency
Law & Politics


“The current cautious diplomatic stance of senior members of the Saudi
royal family will be replaced by an impulsive intervention policy,” a
BND memo widely distributed to the German press reads.

The memo focuses particularly on the role of Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, the 30-year-old son of King Salman who was recently appointed
deputy crown prince and defence minister.

The concentration of so much power in Prince Mohammed’s hands
“harbours a latent risk that in seeking to establish himself in the
line of succession in his father’s lifetime, he may overreach,” the
memo notes.

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Prince's "unbridled ambition has alienated many of his fellow princes," adding that "he has a reputation for arrogance and ruthlessness."
Law & Politics


Brookings Institution published an essay in September that said the
prince’s “unbridled ambition has alienated many of his fellow
princes,” adding that “he has a reputation for arrogance and
ruthlessness.”

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08-MAY-2017 :: "How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?"
Law & Politics


Anyway, I have digressed and want to turn to crude oil which is the
big beast in the commodity complex, the elephant in the room as it
were. Crude Oil Prices have plunged -13% in three weeks and WTI crude
oil traded Friday morning below $44.00 a barrel before recovering to
close at $46.22 a barrel, a one-year low. This is a far cry from the
“Go-Go” days. Nicholas Maduro’s Venezuela is at breaking point. Other
capitals are going to run out of options. I have previously spoken
about How the US shale [cow]boys have OPEC over a proverbial barrel.
Shale can turn the tap on faster than OPEC can turn it off.  The US
oil rig count has more than doubled from a year ago to 703 this week,
according to Baker Hughes Inc’s data Friday.

The OPEC “Go-Go” days of Sheikh Yamani, his prayer beads and delphic
pronouncements belong to yesteryear. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, the
current OPEC secretary-general, is a poor imitation of Yamani and is
playing with a set of cards that is stacked against him. Reserves have
been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to Caracas and in all
the oil producing capitals in the world. So many capitals are fiddling
while sitting on a tinderbox and playing with matches.

The deputy Crown Prince was quoted on Al-Arabiyya about Iran: “How can
I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi
al-Montazar?”

This is deluded thinking at a time when things could seriously fall apart:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere  e ceremony of
innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand
[W.B Yeats The Second Coming]

We have experienced a precipitous downside move and, in my opinion,
the exponential recent momentum is signalling there is further to go.
My price target is $32.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices in extremis move
exponentially. This move has all the ingredients for turning
exponential. Some thought they found a floor Friday, but I expect them
to be rudely awakened.
It’s a wizard of Oz moment, folks. There is no one behind the curtain
and this market is primed to crash.

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@HaiderAlAbadi
Law & Politics


@HaiderAlAbadi  رئيس مجلس الوزراء د. العبادي يبحث مع الملك سلمان
بن عبدالعزيز تعزيز العلاقات بين العراق والمملكة العربية السعودية
https://twitter.com/HaiderAlAbadi/status/876894758257426433

Prime Minister Dr Abadi looking with King Salman bin Abdulaziz
strengthening relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia

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"When will everything be okay?"
Law & Politics


'Everything will probably never be okay. But we have to try for it.'

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12-JUN-2017 :: Rolling Over Qatar @TheStarKenya @Dohanews
Law & Politics


Returning to the Riyadh Summit where the kingdom committed fifth of
its remaining forex reserves [which will fall off a cliff when Oil
slumps towards $32.00 a barrel] to a purchase of ‘’beautiful’’
American arms speaks to a heist. The House of Saud’s protector has
always been the US but this time an American president has excelled
himself at extracting a mindbogglingly egregious price.I have to
surmise that the emir of Qatar baulked at the price and that his
adversaries are saying OK, we can always do it by force because this
looks like a mugging in a dark alley, now.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1136
Dollar Index 97.75
Japan Yen 111.24
Swiss Franc 0.9749
Pound 1.2619
Aussie 0.7559
India Rupee 64.635
South Korea Won 1144.04
Brazil Real 3.3272
Egypt Pound 18.1505
South Africa Rand 13.0799

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


$WTI settles at $43.23 a barrel, down 21% from the 2017 settlement
peak of $54.45.

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Why soyabeans are the crop of the century @FT
Commodities


The fields outside Mohall, North Dakota, were until recently a collage
of blue flax, yellow sunflowers and amber wheat. But today many are
uniform patches of green at the peak of the summer growing season.

This new landscape is thanks to farmers such as Eric Moberg, whose
72-row air seeder planted thousands of acres with soyabeans this
spring. “We didn’t grow any beans four years ago. Now it’s almost a
third of our acre base,” he says.

His windswept county on the Canada border is at the frontier of a
shift in world food supply. As emerging Asia eats more chicken and
pork, the soyabeans that put muscle on birds and swine have spread
across global farms at a faster rate than any other field crop,
covering an area 28 per cent bigger than a decade ago.

This year may mark a turning point. With planting almost complete,
soyabeans are likely to have unseated corn as the most widely sown
crop in the US, analysts believe.

The soyabean has driven deep into Brazil’s interior savannah,
Argentina’s pampas and the US rural heartlands. Harvests have been big
enough to deliver measurable bumps to the economies of Brazil and the
US over the past year. In the next decade the ivory oilseed will drive
total cropland above 1bn hectares (10m sq km) worldwide, expanding
more than barley, corn, cotton, rice, sorghum or wheat, the US
Department of Agriculture has forecast.

The triumph of the soyabean hinges on incomes in China. The country’s
imports have trebled in the past decade to an estimated 93m tonnes in
the coming year, equal to 66kg per person annually — or five cargo
vessels a day. Delegates from China’s commerce ministry are due in the
soyabean-rich state of Iowa next month to sign an agreement that could
include a record purchase, the US Soybean Export Council says.

The shipments strengthened even as China’s demand for industrial
commodities such as iron ore and copper wobbled. “It’s been a
continued, phenomenal pace of growth,” says Gert-Jan van den Akker,
head of agricultural supply chain at Cargill, the food commodities
company.

Any supermarket shopper knows soya is a versatile foodstuff, the
source of tofu and cooking oil. Agribusiness has also transmogrified
beans into goods such as ink, carpeting and biodiesel. But the
soyabean plant’s runaway popularity is down to its unparalleled
protein content. Crushed, nearly 80 per cent becomes soya meal.
Chickens, pigs and fish that eat it fatten fast.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Ghost Nation An ethnic-cleansing campaign by the government threatens to empty South Sudan @Harpers @theIFUND @nickturse
Africa


In his heart, Simon Yakida knew he was digging his own grave.

A few days earlier, clashes between government troops and rebel forces
near Bamurye, Yakida’s village in South Sudan, had left three soldiers
dead. Now the local military commander stood before him, gesturing at
one of the bodies. He told Yakida, “Killing you is payback for this
soldier.”

Bamurye, a farming community whose residents live in mud-and-thatch
huts called tukuls, lies in the southern part of the country. To feed
his two wives and nine children, Yakida, a thirty-two-year-old with
close-cropped hair and a wiry frame, grew cassava, maize, and sorghum.
The work had always been hard, but his life was peaceful. In recent
months, however, the soldiers in the local barracks had grown
increasingly abusive— detaining and mistreating civilians and accusing
them of supporting the antigovernment rebels. In February, the
killings began: Three young men were murdered by soldiers in
retaliation for recent battlefield losses. Most in the village,
including Yakida’s family, had already fled to Uganda; Yakida was on
his way when the troops arrested him.

The soldiers watched as Yakida carved out a knee-deep hole. The
commander ordered him to roll the corpse into the pit and cover it
with soil. Famished, thirsty, and exhausted, Yakida complied. Once the
work was done, the soldiers tied him to a wooden pole, the remnants of
a rudimentary hut.

“Where is the headman of the village?” the commander barked. “Where is
Abu Sala?”

Abu Sala is what people in Bamurye called Alex Kajoba, a night
watchman at the local medical dispensary who was known for advocating
on behalf of villagers who had been detained at the barracks. It
wasn’t a question but a threat; both men knew exactly where Abu Sala
was and why he wouldn’t be coming to Yakida’s aid.

Eventually, the soldiers—members of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army
(S.P.L.A.)—untied Yakida and ordered him to sit on top of the fresh
grave. They bound his hands and ankles. One of the soldiers offered a
salute, then cocked his weapon. The commander ordered him to fire, and
he pulled the trigger.

Yet two days later, Yakida stood before me, wearing a gray polo shirt
with marks & spencer emblazoned on it and ill-fitting jeans that read
bing boss. We were in Laufori, a Ugandan border town with dusty dirt
roads and wooden stalls where you could buy cheap flip-flops and warm
Cokes. Yakida was living beneath an immense mango tree, still
separated from his family. His lean arms bore the marks from where the
rope had dug into them.

Tears spilled down his drawn cheeks as he told me about his failed
execution. A bullet passed through his oversize shirt, just beneath
his left armpit. On the second and third attempts, the rifle jammed.
After an argument among the troops, a soldier allowed him to leave,
and Yakida joined the tide of refugees pouring out of Bamurye and
dozens of other South Sudanese villages. He seemed broken by the
ordeal.

After Yakida told me his story, I asked if he had any questions for
me. “These are government soldiers. They’re supposed to be protecting
civilians, but they’re the ones who are killing us,” he replied. “Why
are they killing the people they’re supposed to be protecting?”

The current conflict has deep roots. From 1983 to 2005, southern
Sudanese fought a civil war against Sudan’s government. In 2011, the
South gained its independence, becoming the world’s newest nation.
Salva Kiir, a member of the largest of the country’s sixty-four ethnic
groups, the Dinka, became the first president of the Texas-size nation
of 12 million.

South Sudan was an American nation-building experiment, the recipient
of $11 billion in assistance since 2005—perhaps the largest investment
the United States has made in sub-Saharan Africa.

The current conflict has deep roots. From 1983 to 2005, southern
Sudanese fought a civil war against Sudan’s government. In 2011, the
South gained its independence, becoming the world’s newest nation.
Salva Kiir, a member of the largest of the country’s sixty-four ethnic
groups, the Dinka, became the first president of the Texas-size nation
of 12 million.

South Sudan was an American nation-building experiment, the recipient
of $11 billion in assistance since 2005—perhaps the largest investment
the United States has made in sub-Saharan Africa.

In 2014, as the conflict raged between the S.P.L.A. and Machar’s
rebels, known as the Sudan People’s Liberation Army—In Opposition
(I.O.), Kiir visited the White House. A former guerrilla, he is often
photographed in one of the cowboy hats given to him by President
George W. Bush or Secretary of State John Kerry. Unwilling to pressure
Kiir and the leaders they had fostered, the Obama Administration
failed to impose a unilateral arms embargo. An eleventh-hour push for
an international arms ban at the U.N. Security Council collapsed, in
part because the outgoing administration lacked sufficient political
capital. As a result, Kiir has been able to purchase $1 billion worth
of arms, including tanks and helicopter gunships.

Until last July, about 231,000 South Sudanese had fled to Uganda. The
number has risen to 834,000 and shows no signs of slowing. Kiir’s
government has said that his soldiers are fighting a counterinsurgency
against the I.O.; the official line is that civilian deaths are either
regrettable collateral damage or the isolated acts of rogue soldiers.

What I discovered is far different: a coordinated campaign of atrocity
and terror by Kiir’s forces that refutes the government’s narrative.

One high-ranking S.P.L.A. officer from the Equatorias, Thomas Cirillo
Swaka, confirmed these accounts in a resignation letter addressed to
President Kiir:

S.P.L.A. soldiers from the Dinka ethnic group have been strategically
deployed and posted in non-Dinka areas to support the policy of land
occupation and enforcing the agenda of forceful Dinkanization and
domination of the country.

Scores of fellow Equatorians, victims of what Cirillo called “ethnic
cleansing, forceful displacement of people from their ancestral lands,
and ethnic domination,” say this is a land grab, that they’ve lost
their homes for the sake of the massive cattle herds of the S.P.L.A.
senior command and the Dinka elite.

In fact, analysts believe that something similar is happening. “There
will be nobody left in South Sudan shortly,” Kate Knopf, the Pentagon
expert, told me. “Either they will be dead, or they will have fled.”
Her husband, Payton Knopf, until recently the coordinator of the U.N.
Panel of Experts on South Sudan, said that by the end of the year, the
country is projected to lose half of its population—counting only
those who flee and those likely to die of starvation. “That’s an
extraordinary and very rare thing,” he told me. “By comparison, in
Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, about a third of the people were
killed—and that was an indisputable genocide.”

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Mugabe Said to Temper Wife's Ambitions Amid Zimbabwe Army Anger
Africa


Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has moved to rein in his wife’s
ambition to succeed him after the nation’s intelligence chief warned
that her campaign may stoke political violence and faces opposition
from within the military, three members of the ruling party’s
politburo said.

Mugabe asked his wife Grace, 51, to tone down her public criticism of
veterans of Zimbabwe’s independence war who’ve supported the president
since he took power in 1980 and back her main rival, Deputy President
Emmerson Mnangagwa, 74, according to the politburo members, who asked
not to be named because they’re not authorized to speak publicly on
the matter.

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S&P warns South Africa over meddling with central bank independence @Reuters
Africa


S&P Global warned South Africa on Tuesday that its rating could be cut
deeper into junk territory if the government meddles with the
"critical" independence of the country's central bank.

A row over the South African Reserve Bank has escalated this week
after the head of the country's constitutionally-mandated anti-graft
watchdog called for the bank to focus on growth more than maintaining
currency and price stability.

"We would consider it critical that the operational independence of
the reserve bank remains untouched lest we would see weakening policy
flexibility in monetary affairs," S&P's top sovereign analyst, Moritz
Kraemer, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum chatroom.

"Depending on the severity of the changes (to the central bank's
independence), a rating action could indeed be one consequence."

S&P stripped South Africa of its coveted investment grade rating back
in April after the sacking of internationally respected finance
minister Pravin Gordhan.

It currently has a BB+ rating with a negative outlook on its foreign
currency debt, although it does still have an investment grade BBB- on
its domestic currency debt, which may have prevented a larger scale
sell-off of its bonds.

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South African Airways in Talks With Banks as Deadline Looms
Africa


South African Airways is in talks with lenders about reviewing the
terms of 9 billion-rand ($692 million) worth of loans due at the end
of the month, and may have to tap government debt guarantees that are
keeping the state-owned airline in operation.

One bank has told SAA that it wants to be repaid by the end-June
deadline, the Johannesburg-based carrier said Monday, without giving
further details. Standard Chartered Plc refused a request to extend a
loan facility, South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper reported, citing
people it didn’t identify. SAA owes the bank 2.3 billion rand, the
newspaper said.

“SAA has been in contact with its lenders to renegotiate the
management of its loans, a normal occurrence when loans become due and
payable,” the airline’s acting chief executive officer, Musa Zwane,
said in an emailed statement. “The renegotiation of the terms of the
loans are ongoing and SAA is optimistic that the airline will continue
to operate.”

read more


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.0370
Africa


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1507

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +27.91% 2017 [25 MONTH HIGHS]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +14.68% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Tanzania has banned a newspaper for two years as it tightens its media clampdown
Africa


The privately-owned Mawio paper was banned for 24 months on June 15,
with the government suspending both its print edition and online
platforms. Tanzania’s information minister Harrison Mwakyembe said in
a statement (in Kiswahili) that the paper was suspended for publishing
the photos of two former presidents—Benjamin Mkapa and Jakaya
Kikwete—on its June 15-21 edition and linking them to a government
probe into allegations of misconduct in the mining sector.

“We are extremely concerned that Tanzania is using public order as an
excuse to frustrate the flow of information and public debate,” Angela
Quintal of the Committee to Protect Journalists, said. “A two-year ban
is tantamount to closing the publication.”

read more





"Both sides communicate that the elections have already been won," Cernicky told DW.
Kenyan Economy


The head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kenya, Jan Cernicky,
said it was very likely that whoever loses this year’s election will
head to the streets to challenge the outcome.

“Both sides communicate that the elections have already been won,”
Cernicky told DW. “If someone loses, it will be the electoral
commission or the law courts, but not the one who received fewer
votes.”

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +14.55% 2017 [22 MONTH HIGHS]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

152.74 -0.23 -0.15%

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@KenGenKenya share price data here +52.586% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           8.85
Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00
Market Capitalization:        55,258,281,953
EPS:             1.08
PE:                 8.194

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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +12.99% 2017 [11 MONTH HIGHS]
Kenyan Economy


3,600.01 +17.25 +0.48%

Uchumi workers yet to get May salaries

http://bit.ly/2sRRKci

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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