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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 27th of June 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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i have been reading Wilfred Thesinger

Sir Wilfred Patrick Thesiger (3 June 1910 – 24 August 2003),[1] also
called Mubarak bin London (Arabic for "the blessed one of
London")[2][3] was an English explorer and travel writer.

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The Danakil Diary: Journeys Through Abyssinia, 1930-34 (Paperback) Wilfred Thesiger (author)

The earliest and most influential expeditions of the man now
considered to be the greatest living explorer. The Danakil Diary is
the account of two journeys Thesiger made into the Danakil country in
Abyssinia, now Ethiopia, in 1930-34 at the age of 24 - which, today,
he still regards as the most dangerous he undertook. It was an
extraordinary journey and a remarkable achievement. Thesiger succeeded
in penetrating country that had wiped out two Italian expeditions and
an Egyptian army before him, discovered what happened to the Awash
River (one of the area's last geographical mysteries to be solved) and
managed to survive amongst the Danakil tribesmen, to whom a man's
status depended on the number of men he had killed and castrated.
Besides giving early proof of Thesiger's descriptive genius - with his
portrayal of the beautiful, savage landscapes, and their varied
wildlife - The Danakil Diary reveals youthful evidence of his fierce
motivation and uncompromising will, which are familiar hallmarks of
his sixty years of travel among primitive peoples in some of the
harshest and remotest areas of the world.

In the early evening, Dad always asks for a whiskey. And I always
recall a story of my GrandFather's brother [he was a Bon Viveur] who
had just one daughter and Mum used to tell me how he was very ill and
asked his Daughter for his favourite Whiskey and she would refuse. So
when Dad asks I dilute a whiskey and give it to him. But last night,
around midnight all i could hear was a screaming and I went
downstairs. And he says ''Do You see them?'' ''There are at least 50
unauthorised People in the house''

So I am now desisting from fulfilling his drinking wishes.

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"We got a fxxkin' problem' Von Seymour M. Hersh | Stand: 12:40 Uhr | Lesedauer: 4 Minuten via @welt
Law & Politics

Intelligence officials doubted the alleged Sarin gas attack at Khan
Sheikhoun. WELT AM SONNTAG presents a chat protocol of a security
advisor and an active American soldier on duty at a key base in the

his conversation was provided to Seymour Hersh. It is betweeen a
security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key
operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun. We have made
abbreviations: American soldier (AS) and Security Advisor (SA). WELT
AM SONNTAG is aware of the location of the deployment. For security
reasons, certain details of military operations have been omitted.

April 6, 2017

American Soldier: We got a fuxxin‘ problem

Security-Adviser: What happened? Is it the Trump ignoring the Intel
and going to try to hit the Syrians? And that we’re pissing on the

AS: This is bad...Things are spooling up.

SA: You may not have seen trumps press conference yesterday. He's
bought into the media story without asking to see the Intel.  We are
likely to get our asses kicked by the Russians.  Fxxking dangerous.
Where are the godamn adults? The failure of the chain of command to
tell the President the truth, whether he wants to hear it or not, will
go down in history as one of our worst moments.

AS: I don't know. None of this makes any sense. We KNOW that there was
no chemical attack. The Syrians struck a weapons cache (a legitimate
military target) and there was collateral damage. That's it. They did
not conduct any sort of a chemical attack.


AS: And now we’re shoving a shit load of TLAMs (tomahawks) up their ass.

SA: There has been a hidden agenda all along. This is about trying to
ultimately go after Iran. What the people around Trump do not
understand is that the Russians are not a paper tiger and that they
have more robust military capability than we do.

AS:  I don't know what the Russians are going to do. They might hang
back and let the Syrians defend their own borders, or they might
provide some sort of tepid support, or they might blow us the fxxk out
of the airspace and back into Iraq. I honestly don't know what to
expect right now. I feel like anything is possible.  The russian air
defense system is capable of taking out our TLAMs.  this is a big
fxxking deal...we are still all systems go...

SA:  You are so right. Russia is not going to take this lying down

SA: Who is pushing this? Is it coming from Votel (General Joseph L.
Votel, Commander of United States Central Command, editor‘s note) ?

AS: I don't know. It's from someone big though. . . . This is a big
fuxxing deal.

AS: It has to be POTUS.

AS:  They [the russians] are weighing their options.  Indications are
they are going to be passive supporters of syria and not engage their
systems unless their own assets are threatened..in other words, the
sky is fucking blue.'



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Hersh's Big Scoop: Bad Intel Behind Trump's Syria Attack
Law & Politics

Marine General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the, Joint Chiefs of Staff,
and former Marine General, now Defense Secretary James “Mad-Dog”
Mattis ordered the attacks apparently knowing that the reason given
was what one of Hersh’s sources called a “fairy tale.”

They then left it to Trump’s national security adviser Army General H.
R. McMaster to further the deceit with the help of a compliant
mainstream media, which broke from its current tradition of
distrusting whatever Trump says in favor of its older tradition of
favoring “regime change” in Syria and trusting pretty much whatever
the “rebels” claim.

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Obama's secret struggle to punish Russia for Putin's election assault @washingtonpost
Law & Politics

Early last August, an envelope with extraordinary handling
restrictions arrived at the White House. Sent by courier from the CIA,
it carried “eyes only” instructions that its contents be shown to just
four people: President Barack Obama and three senior aides.

Inside was an intelligence bombshell, a report drawn from sourcing
deep inside the Russian government that detailed Russian President
Vladi­mir Putin’s direct involvement in a cyber campaign to disrupt
and discredit the U.S. presidential race.

But it went further. The intelligence captured Putin’s specific
instructions on the operation’s audacious objectives — defeat or at
least damage the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help elect
her opponent, Donald Trump.

At that point, the outlines of the Russian assault on the U.S.
election were increasingly apparent. Hackers with ties to Russian
intelligence services had been rummaging through Democratic Party
computer networks, as well as some Republican systems, for more than a
year. In July, the FBI had opened an investigation of contacts between
Russian officials and Trump associates. And on July 22, nearly 20,000
emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee were dumped
online by WikiLeaks.

In political terms, Russia’s interference was the crime of the
century, an unprecedented and largely successful destabilizing attack
on American democracy. It was a case that took almost no time to
solve, traced to the Kremlin through cyber-forensics and intelligence
on Putin’s involvement. And yet, because of the divergent ways Obama
and Trump have handled the matter, Moscow appears unlikely to face
proportionate consequences.

“It is the hardest thing about my entire time in government to
defend,” said a former senior Obama administration official involved
in White House deliberations on Russia. “I feel like we sort of

The CIA breakthrough came at a stage of the presidential campaign when
Trump had secured the GOP nomination but was still regarded as a
distant long shot. Clinton held comfortable leads in major polls, and
Obama expected that he would be transferring power to someone who had
served in his Cabinet.

The intelligence on Putin was extraordinary on multiple levels,
including as a feat of espionage.

For spy agencies, gaining insights into the intentions of foreign
leaders is among the highest priorities. But Putin is a remarkably
elusive target. A former KGB officer, he takes extreme precautions to
guard against surveillance, rarely communicating by phone or computer,
always running sensitive state business from deep within the confines
of the Kremlin.

The FBI had detected suspected Russian attempts to penetrate election
systems in 21 states, and at least one senior White House official
assumed that Moscow would try all 50, officials said. Some officials
believed the attempts were meant to be detected to unnerve the
Americans. The patchwork nature of the United States’ 3,000 or so
voting jurisdictions would make it hard for Russia to swing the
outcome, but Moscow could still sow chaos.

“We turned to other scenarios” the Russians might attempt, said
Michael Daniel, who was cybersecurity coordinator at the White House,
“such as disrupting the voter rolls, deleting every 10th voter [from
registries] or flipping two digits in everybody’s address.”

A month later, Obama confronted Putin directly during a meeting of
world leaders in Hangzhou, China. Accompanied only by interpreters,
Obama told Putin that “we knew what he was doing and [he] better stop
or else,” according to a senior aide who subsequently spoke with
Obama. Putin responded by demanding proof and accusing the United
States of interfering in Russia’s internal affairs.

Then, on Oct. 31, the administration delivered a final pre-election
message via a secure channel to Moscow originally created to avert a
nuclear exchange. The message noted that the United States had
detected malicious activity, originating from servers in Russia,
targeting U.S. election systems and warned that meddling would be
regarded as unacceptable interference. Russia confirmed the next day
that it had received the message but replied only after the election
through the same channel, denying the accusation.

Then he unloaded on Moscow. “The Russians can’t change us or
significantly weaken us,” he said. “They are a smaller country. They
are a weaker country. Their economy doesn’t produce anything that
anybody wants to buy, except oil and gas and arms.”

Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser, said that the DNC
email penetrations were initially thought to be in the same vein as
previous Russian hacking efforts against targets including the State
Department and White House.

“In many ways . . . we dealt with this as a cyberthreat and focused on
protecting our cyber infrastructure,” Rhodes said in an interview.
“Meanwhile, the Russians were playing this much bigger game, which
included elements like released hacked materials, political propaganda
and propagating fake news, which they’d pursued in other countries.”

“We weren’t able to put all of those pieces together in real time,”
Rhodes said, “and in many ways that complete picture is still being
filled in.” Rhodes declined to discuss any sensitive information.

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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.

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27-JUN-2017 :: President Donald Trump continues to stay a step ahead of the 'Manchurian Candidate' charge
Law & Politics

President Donald Trump continues to stay a step ahead of the
‘Manchurian Candidate’ charge, but consider how much uncertainty this
charge has imported.

Make no mistake, Russia intervened. Yes it was non-linear, but it was
a substantive intervention and to be frank President Obama choked.

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A family coup in Saudi Arabia Nick Butler's blog @FT
Law & Politics

A week ago I heard a faint rumour of an intense quarrel within the
Saudi royal family, which was presumed to be focused on an attempt to
force King Salman to rein in his son, the 31-year-old deputy crown
prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and to return the country to something
closer to normality after three years of chaotic ambition and growing
instability. I started to draft a piece discussing how such a coup
could reshape the oil market and what action Saudi, under new
leadership could take to halt the continuing fall in oil prices.

Now it seems the rumour was correct but the presumption was mistaken.
The winner of the coup was not as expected the crown prince Mohammed
bin Nayaf but MbS himself, who has deposed the crown prince and taken
full authority over everything including the key role of internal
security. Prince Nayef, one of the most experienced and respected of
the Saudi leaders, has been shown in a humiliating picture kneeling in

There is something Shakespearean about what is happening. Who better
to chronicle the unravelling story of the House of Saud? An ailing
king breaks the delicate balance of the ruling family to promote his
son — a young man whose vanity can be exploited by every breed of
consultant and banker — over the trusted heir apparent. All this
against the background of falling revenues from the kingdom’s one
source of wealth, hostility from neighbours and sometime friends, in
the context of a region split by the revival of religious conflicts.
We are somewhere between King Lear and Richard II.

The market reacted negatively to the news, marking the oil price down
again with Brent crude slipping below $45 a barrel. MbS has said that
the oil price does not matter and by 2020 the kingdom’s economy will
be independent of oil revenues. No one believes that is really
possible but if he does the prospect of Saudi allowing prices to fall
further is serious. No other country has the power to cut production
and exports to the degree necessary to rebalance an oversupplied

The sole consolation is that we are only at the end of Act 1. There is
much more news to come from Saudi Arabia. The fault lines are visible
and the transfer of total power to MbS will expose them in the months

The diversification of the kingdom’s economy has been a national
priority since at least 1980. Next to nothing has been achieved. The
brightest and the best have left — men and, of course, women tired of
being treated as second-rate citizens. The grand plans for
diversification and modernisation produced by McKinseys and endorsed
by MbS are not grounded in anything firmer than sand. There is a grand
“vision” for 2030 but no delivery mechanism.

Second, Saudi is isolated, except perhaps for a rather unreliable ally
in Washington. Its actions in Yemen have heightened the tensions in
the region to no great effect and have exposed the weakness of the
kingdom’s own defence forces. The resentment against the Saudi
decision to allow oil prices to fall is intense and spreads across
Opec and beyond.

Third, and perhaps most dangerous for the House of Saud, is the
internal break with the religious powers. Instead of the slow but
deliberate process of reform and modernisation put in place by the
late King Abdullah and Prince Nayef, there is now a crown prince whose
grand vision leaves little space for religion.

The only question is where the next step in the destabilisation will
come from — the alienated part of the royal family? Iran? Isis or
other fundamentalist groups who see in Saudi a crumbling state?

Potential investors in the proposed partial privatisation of Saudi
Aramco, which MbS believes is worth $2.6tn, will now see political
risks added to all the obvious commercial problems involved. If Aramco
is to be sold, a deep and humiliating discount will be necessary.

The stage is set for much more drama. The House of Saud is inherently
weak with no democratic legitimacy and few genuine friends. Its key
central purpose is its own survival and that implies above all the
need for stability — something that until MbS came on the scene had
been the hallmark of Saudi policy for the last century.

History suggests that a power grab is not a manoeuvre that produces
long-term success; it generates instability. The absence of legitimacy
creates a vacuum that challengers will seek to fill. In the end, the
imperative of survival favours those who can bring stability and
order. One of the common features of many of Shakespeare’s plays is
that order finally emerges from chaos. But there are several acts to
come before we reach that point.

For the moment, the newly appointed crown prince would do well to
dwell on the meaning of Shakespeare’s comment in Henry IV part 2:
“Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown”.


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08-MAY-2017 :: Reserves have been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to Caracas and in all the oil producing capitals in the world.
Law & Politics

Reserves have been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to
Caracas and in all the oil producing capitals in the world. So many
capitals are fiddling while sitting on a tinderbox and playing with

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27-JUN-2017 :: The once "sick man" of Europe has got its mojo back
Law & Politics

The once ‘’sick man’’ of Europe has got its mojo back with the
wizardry of French President Emmanuel Macron changing the European
narrative via an ‘’abracabradabra’’ type magic trick.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1193
Dollar Index 97.34
Japan Yen 111.70
Swiss Franc 0.9721
Pound 1.2732
Aussie 0.7597
India Rupee 64.455
South Korea Won 1137.40
Brazil Real 3.2961
Egypt Pound 18.1415
South Africa Rand 12.8625

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The average price of a pre-owned business jet has fallen from $13.7m in April 2014 to $8.9m FT
International Trade

Prices for second-hand private jets, many of which have barely been
flown, have dropped as much as 35 per cent over three years to the end
of April. The average price of a pre-owned business jet has fallen
from $13.7m in April 2014 to $8.9m, according to research by Colibri
Aircraft, which specialises in the marketing, resale and purchase of
pre-owned private aircraft.

Owners have lost millions of dollars on the value of their existing
business jets as a glut of planes came on to the market in the wake of
the economic downturn. The resale price of a Bombardier Global XRS,
which sold for $50m, has dropped from $31.3m to $20.4m — down just
under 35 per cent, according to Colibri’s figures.

Bombardier said it did not comment on specific pricing of its
aircraft, but it said the company had realigned its production in the
light of market demand.

Newer models coming on to the market had also caused prices to fall
further, said Oliver Stone, managing director of Colibri. “Customers
are selling their current jet to upgrade to the new one,” he said.
“Supply is increasing, but not demand.”

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

The latest more-than $ 10 sudden sell-off in gold is largely
blamed to be a ‘Fat finger’ error, with someone dumping nearly $ 2
billion in notional trading ZeroHedge


At the time of writing, gold is down -1.10% at $ 1242.80 levels,
almost near the lowest levels since May 17.

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#Oil Watch: @JPMorgan cuts Brent forecast in Q3 and Q4 to $50 and $52 a barrel (down from $56 and $57). It sees 2018 average below $50 #OOTT @JavierBlas2

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 12
cents, or 0.3 percent, at $43.50 per barrel by 0323 GMT. Brent crude
futures LCOc1 gained 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $45.97 per barrel.

The market is up slightly so far this week after dropping for the past
five weeks.

"The market has fallen a lot as the news has been bad pretty
consistently for the oil market," said Ric Spooner, chief market
analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

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27-JUN-2017 :: "The Tape is your Telescope" and in matters crude oil, the recent price action continues to signal we are in uncharted and disjunctive territory

I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 (Sh3, 316) which will be a
catalyst for a serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the
2008 financial crisis. These folks did not end their party, they just
gorged on credit and now their lenders are set to come knocking. The
end is indeed nigh

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By demanding the end of Al Jazeera, Saudi Arabia is trying to turn Qatar into a vassal state Robert Fisk
Emerging Markets

So serious has the Saudi-Qatar crisis now become that the Qatari
Foreign Minister is reportedly planning an emergency trip to
Washington in the next few days in the hope that the Trump regime can
save his emirate. For Mohamed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani knows very well
that if Qatar submits to the 13 unprecedented – some might say
outrageous – demands that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates and Egypt have made, it will cease to exist as a nation

It’s hard to see how the Qataris can respond. If they really did close
their worldwide television network and other media groups, break off
relations with the Muslim Brotherhood – al-Sisi’s target, although his
real enemy is Isis – and the Taliban and Hezbollah, downgrade their
relations with Iran, close Turkey’s military base and expose their
account books for international Arab scrutiny for the next 12 years,
then Qatar becomes a vassal state.

To Qatar’s friends, this seems bizarre, fantastical, almost beyond
reality – but who can plumb the brain of the new and highly impulsive
31-year-old Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia? If he can
rush into a hopeless war with the Houthis of Yemen, why shouldn’t he
threaten the body politic of Qatar? The Saudi royal family have
several times tried to humiliate their disobedient neighbour; by
isolating this little pearl of wealth with its meddlesome television
station, they are forcing Qatar to eat the nearest equivalent of
humble pie: food imported from Iran and Turkey.

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27-JUN-2017 :: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed a 31-year-old MBS
Emerging Markets

Big things are popping all over the financial world.  The Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed a 31-year-old
MBS [who allegedly while on holiday liked a yacht, cut a cheque for
$550m on the spot and threw the owner ‘’overboard’’] and is surely
plotting an incision into Doha and a regime change.

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Political transition or violent coup? Mapping potential scenarios in the Democratic Republic of Congo: @StrifeBlog

On 17 May 2017, over 4000 inmates escaped from Makala prison in
Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while
70 convicts fled from another prison in south-western DRC a few days
later. In the preceding months, the European Union (EU) and the United
States (USA) have imposed targeted sanctions and travel restrictions
while freezing assets of senior Congolese security and intelligence
officials after government violence against civilian protests. An
additional nine Congolese officials were then sanctioned in May 2017
for obstructing elections and for human rights violations. This
current political deadlock in the Democratic Republic of Congo could
develop into a number of ways. With prison breaks, government
violence, kidnappings, mass atrocities, a powder keg of disgruntled
citizens and suspicions that the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) may
have been involved in the killing of two United Nations (UN)
investigators in March, it is not surprising that current and
prospective investors are fearful of how the situation in the country
might develop. The analysis looks at four potential scenarios and how
the business climate has been severely affected.

Instability in the DRC has become the norm. Recent insecurity has
centered on delayed elections – which were due to take place in
November 2016 – following President Joseph Kabila’s unwillingness to
step down after reaching the constitutional term limit. The current
episodes of unrest are merely the latest in a country which remains
plagued by political, economic and social instability since achieving
independence in 1960. GlobalEDGE places the country in the lowest
quartile of their country risk rating, with an even lower ranking for
business climate.

The situation in the DRC could develop in a number of different ways.
Some directions are more likely to lead to a peaceful transition,
while other scenarios will most certainly pave the way for heightened
instability. As things stand, an escalation of violence and a drop in
UN and foreign donor support are likely. The importance of donor
support should not be underestimated as such aid helps Kabila remain
in power. In this scenario, Kabila is expected to step down and
elections will eventually take place once logistical obstacles are
circumvented. It is not possible to assess how quickly the escalation
of violence will force Kabila to cede power as he may continue to
fight back. Hence, a series of protests could lead to widespread
fighting and then ultimately to a civil war. Business Monitor
International (BMI) argues that despite the escalation of violence,
this outcome would provide a better macroeconomic future as donors
will resume their support once a new government is elected.

A military coup followed by an election remains another possibility,
although there are complexities associated with any power-sharing
agreements as the military would attempt to consolidate its control
over the country. Despite the fragility of the Kabila regime,
government forces have been able to suppress protests. Moreover, a
coup is unlikely to take place because of how strong Kabila’s
Republican Guard is and because of its loyalty and allegiance to the
President. Furthermore, the DRC’s violent past indicates that a coup
would bring about even greater instability, as was the case when
Mobutu Sese Seko came to power in 1965 which led to widespread
atrocities and very poor standards of living for 30 years.

If Kabila stays in power, that would be contingent on whether he
manages to maintain his networks – primarily those influencing the
mining regions. Even with reduced donor support, countries like China
could become more involved in exchange for greater access to
resource-rich areas. Kabila will likely militarise his administration
in order to stay in power and will block any decentralisation
processes so as to put an end to the political dialogue. Further, with
conflicts in North and South Kivu and recent instability in Burundi, a
reaction by a notorious neighbour could develop into outright fighting
as in the Second Congo War. Yet, this remains unlikely.

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Mugabe the juggler Africa Confidential

Harare is abuzz with speculation about upheavals in the ruling party
which could change the succession game

A vital meeting of the Politburo of the Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front was due to take place as Africa Confidential
went to press. Such is the turmoil in the highest ranks of ZANU-PF
that one of the rumoured outcomes is the political demise of
Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa, 75, currently seen as the likeliest
next President of the Republic. All agree on one thing: only
incapacity or worse can prevent President Robert Mugabe from leading
his party into the elections, due next year. The next most certain
point of agreement is that, as ever, the 93-year-old President will
confuse the succession issue as much as possible.

Recent weeks have confirmed Mugabe's penchant for what pundits call
'pendulum politics'. His favouritism swings to one ZANU-PF faction,
then to another. Once a faction believes itself so well entrenched
that it is virtually certain to succeed, the rug disappears from
beneath its feet and it finds itself at the foot of the climb once
more (AC Vol 55 No 25, Exit Mujuru, enter Mnangagwa ).

The two main contending factions consist of 'Team Lacoste', which as
successor favours Mnangagwa, 74, whose nickname is Ngwenya
('Crocodile', the symbol of the Lacoste fashion brand), and
'Generation 40' (AC Vol 55 No 24, The defenestration of Mujuru). G-40
is managed by the long-time propaganda supremo and current Higher
Education Minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo, and the Local Government
Minister, Saviour Kasukuwere. G-40 has no obvious candidate to succeed
Mugabe, although his wife Grace Mugabe, 51, was previously seen as
part of the cabal.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.25% 2017

27-JUN-2017 :: The rand, which is hovering around the 13.00 level
versus the dollar, is seemingly much more resilient in the face of
some serious ‘’Zupta’’ shenanigans.


Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 12.8625


The mummy of Queen Tyie , King Akhenaten’s mother,Tomb KV35 Valley
of the Kings in Luxor, Egypt. 1898 @oldpicsarchive


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1415


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Nigeria's Buhari Sends First Message Since May 7, ThisDay Says

Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari spoke in an audio broadcast to
mark the end of the Ramadan fast, his first public message since he
went on medical leave on May 7, ThisDay newspaper reported.

The recording, in the Hausa language spoken by Nigerians in the
predominantly Muslim North, was sent to radio stations and shared by
the presidency, the Lagos-based newspaper said.

Buhari thanked Nigerians for their prayers for his well-being and
asked them to avoid divisive speeches, it said.

The West African leader traveled to the U.K. in May to receive
treatment for an undisclosed ailment.

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +19.53% 2017 [-6.55% since 20th June]

32,122.14 -806.30 -2.45%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +15.31% 2017


read more

Kenyan President Pledges Investment Plan in Hunt for Votes Bloomberg Politics
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s ruling Jubilee Party pledged to transform East Africa’s
largest economy into a middle-income nation by 2022 by boosting
investment in public infrastructure and technology and offering
increased financing for small businesses.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party also said it will increase the number
of poor and elderly on free health care and offer free education to
some primary and secondary public school students. The number of
elderly receiving state grants would be doubled to 1.4 million, and
the government would create 1.3 million jobs every year, the party
said in a manifesto for Aug. 8 elections posted Monday on its Twitter

Kenyatta’s administration pledged to “maintain a stable macro-economic
environment and sensible policies that will support strong economic
growth, ensure price stability, maintain debt at sustainable levels,
create wealth and reduce inequalities," according to the document.

Kenyatta, 55, is seeking a second term in a race against 72-year-old
former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who’s five-party opposition
coalition is scheduled to release its manifesto on Tuesday. Kenyan
elections are fractious times for investors because of violence that
engulfed the nation in three of the past five votes. In a disputed
December 2007 vote, ethnic violence left 1,100 people dead and forced
350,000 more to flee their homes.

The Jubilee Party manifesto said the government plans to raise revenue
collection to 27 percent of gross domestic product from about 19
percent currently. It will also establish a sovereign wealth fund to
hold proceeds from anticipated oil production, it said. Kenya’s
economic growth may slow to 5.5 percent in 2017 from 5.7 percent in
2016 as the worst drought in more than three decades decimates output
from its rain-fed farming sector, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said
on June 8.

The ruling party is highlighting a $3.8 billion railway from coastal
Mombasa city to Nairobi, the capital, as the hallmark of its
achievements. The standard-gauge railway line is Kenya’s biggest
public investment since attaining independence in 1963 and was
financed by loans from China Export-Import Bank.

The line is being extended by 120 kilometers (75 miles) to Naivasha,
the Jubilee Party said. The government also pledged to complete 7,000
kilometers of roads and build a six-lane highway between Mombasa and

If re-elected, Kenyatta’s government would establish Kenyan Exim Bank
and an Industrial and Commercial Development Bank to provide long-term
financing for small businesses, according to the manifesto. It would
also come up with a public housing program to build at least 500,000
affordable units for low-income earners, it said. The government would
also double fertilizer subsidies to farmers and complete construction
of 57 large-scale dams.

read more

@RichTvAfrica KEN INT 6.875% 24-JUN-2024
Kenyan Economy

Mid-Price : 101.875
Yield : 6.54%
Total Return (12months) : +17.5%
YTD : 10.3%

read more

@RichTvAfrica KEN INT 5.875% 24-JUN-2019
Kenyan Economy

Mid-Price : 102.938
Yield : 4.32%
Total Return (12months) : +9.6%
YTD : 2.3%

read more

27-JUN-2017 :: The shilling may be the world's most stable currency today
Kenyan Economy

The shilling has exhibited extreme alpha and, in fact, is probably the
most stable freely traded currency not only in Africa, but in the
World. I was talking to Sheila M’Mbijjewe [ e Central Bank of Kenya
Deputy Governor] and she noted that if we stripped out food inflation,
the inflation basket will soon turn negative. Government of Kenya bond
yields are set to enter a sweet spot as food inflation turns lower and
Investors seek to snap up double digit yields which hold up when
translated into hard currency yields [because of the stability of the
shilling]. The stock market has been on a tear with the Nairobi NSE20
Index +29.90% since its January 30’s low. However, stock market’s
investors are increasingly looking as if they are looking to take some
chips off the table and book some gains.

Bloomberg headlined a story Friday ‘’Murder Part of Drama at Kenya
Sugar Miller Up 50% in a Month’’ and the first paragraph reads: “ The
company’s chief executive has fled the country. Its legal officer was
killed in an unsolved murder case. Operations are shut for three
months for maintenance and mounting losses mean it needs a bailout
from the Kenyan government.” So why has Mumias Sugar’s stock surged 50
per cent over the past month on the NSE? With our noses pressed up
against the general election, Mumias Sugar story is as loud a signal
as it gets, time to book your profits.

read more

Mumias Sugar Company @MumiasSugarCo share price data -15.38% 2017
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           1.10
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,683,000,000

read more

27-JUN-2017 :: Nairobi All Share has surged +29.234% since March 8.
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +15.94% 2017 [23 month high] [+29.234%
since 8th March]


154.59 +0.24 +0.16%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +13.73% 2017


3,623.83 +11.280.31%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


read more

Nairobi Water ups rationing after dam levels drop to all-time low
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi residents will continue to spend more on water as the utility
provider signalled increased rationing after the levels at main
reservoir Ndakaini Dam dropped to an all-time low.
Intensified rationing of the commodity by the Nairobi City Water and
Sewerage Company (NCWSC) will see households dig deeper into their
pockets as they seek expensive water from private vendors.
Vendors charge Sh20 or higher for 20 litres of water or 0.02 cubic
meters, reaping a huge profit from the supply shortage.
This is steep compared to the Sh53 per 1,000 litres that NCWSC charges
“The company has further reviewed equitable water distribution
programme for the city and its environs,” said NCWSC.
“This has been necessitated by the below average rainfall experienced
in the short and long rains of 2016 and 2017 respectively.”

read more

N.S.E Today

The euro surged 1 percent to $1.1285 versus the Dollar last.
Mario Draghi highlighted a recovering euro zone economy that “the
threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play” .
Reuters added, Draghi's comments "sounded to investors like he was
ready to give more ground on German demands that the ECB get on with
starting to reduce the volume of extra euros it is feeding monthly
into the economy."
The Nairobi All Share rallied +0.62% to close at a 23 month high of
155.56. The All Share is +16.66% in 2017.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index edged -7.52 points lower to close at 3616.31
Equity Turnover clocked 598.618m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +1.08% to close at 23.50 and regain a record closing
high previously reached on the 12th and 16th of this month. Safaricom
traded 5.720m shares and will set an All Time high as soon as
tomorrow. Safaricom is +22.715% and looks set to extend to 28.00.

.@Safaricomltd +22.715% in 2017 share data here


WPP-ScanGroup rallied +1.63% to close at 18.75 and on heavy volume
action of 4.308m shares[1.13% of its shares]  worth 80.819m.
WPP-ScanGroup is +3.30% in 2017 and the majority of shares are held by
Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Standard Chartered Bank rallied +2.39% to close at 214.00 and traded
52,100 shares. StanChart trades on a Trailing P/E of 8.27, shares are
tightly held and there is room for a price move to the topside.
Equity Bank firmed +0.67% to close at 37.75 and traded 4.043m shares
worth 152.66m. Equity has posted a +25.833% price return in 2017.

NIC Bank rallied +5.46% to close at 33.75 and traded 334,900 shares.
NIC is +29.8% in 2017 and Investors see the Tier 2 Bank as ahead of
the curve.

Kenya Re
rallied +3.65% to close at 21.25 a 6 month high and traded
1.516m shares worth 32.516m.
BRITAM EA corrected -3.03% lower to close at 12.80 and traded 555,700
shares and remains +28.00% in 2017.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Crown Berger rallied +9.16% to close at a 2017 High of 71.50. Crown
Berger announced on the 22nd of June that they were looking to receive
permission to buy back unto 15% of its shares and this has surely had
the collateral benefit of underpinning the Price. Crown Berger is
+70.238% in 2017. Crown trades on a Trailing PE of 38.64, which is a
Signal to sell into this price rally.

Crown Berger share price data here +70.238% in 2017


was high ticked +4.75% to close at 838.00 on just 200 shares.

Mumias Sugar
predictably corrected -9.09% lower to close at 1.00. It
had gotten pumped up on nothing in particular.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2017

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