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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 29th of June 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya

Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles
Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party

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#Euro jumps >$1.14 @business 1.1429

“It will take more than anonymous ECB sources to cool the desire to
bet on the euro and dump the dollar,” said Sean Callow, a senior
currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “Many
investors are tantalized by the prospect of key quarterly meetings in
September producing no move from the Fed but a plan to wind down
quantitative easing at the ECB.”

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Hannah and her Frisbee on the South Coast

The Personal life is a unique thing for each and every one of us 7b.
Yesterday, my 11 Year Old Hannah [on the way to her drop off at
6.15am] was indicating that she was finding me very annoying with my
questions which she felt were neither pertinent or worthy of her
interest. And I said

''Darling Have you studied Freud?''

She says ''No! And is he another Pavlov? [She had complained about my
always checking prices on my mobile Phone and I had explained that it
was a Pavlovian reaction and that she should ask her Teacher about

I said ''Did You dream last night?''

She said ''Yes, It was a dream about a school trip and we were on a
bus and someone kept taking my seat and it was very annoying''

I said ''See Transference!''

You had a bad dream and you have transferred your unhappiness onto me.

I feel very contrite about that single seriously diluted whiskey
[Johnnie Walker Black] I was giving to my Father [at his frequent
request]. However, Nishet informs me that things have stabilised and
that his room is not as populated with [mostly long dead or very
geographically distant] relatives. Having read a lot of the ''magic
realist'' writers from Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Jorge Luis Borges,
Salman Rushdie and Ben Okri amongst others, its a little like a Novel.
Characters that are spirits, who re-appear at different intervals,
non-linearity of time and then through all of this ''Noise'' [It is
not ''Noise'' in fact because I know or knew all the personalities]
there are so many signals. And then there are moments of extreme

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"Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark Secret" P 206 Imaginary Homelands @SalmanRushdie

“One human life is deeper than the ocean. Strange fishes and
sea-monsters and mighty plants live in the rock-bed of our spirits.
The whole of human history is an undiscovered continent deep in our
souls. There are dolphins, plants that dream, magic birds inside us.
The sky is inside us. The earth is in us.” ― Ben Okri, The Famished

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"What matters in life is not what happens to you but what you remember and how you remember it." - Gabriel Garcia Marquez

“It's enough for me to be sure that you and I exist at this moment.” ―
Gabriel García Márquez, One Hundred Years of Solitude

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27-JUN-2017 :: the destination of OBOR is Beijing. All the roads and railways lead to one destination President Xi Jinping's Beijing.
Law & Politics

Over in the East, China has now secured and militarised its Islands
and the Pivot to Asia is as dead in the water as is Osama Bin-Laden.
As America considers an infrastructure plan, China has rolled out its
OBOR [One Belt One Road] initiative across this 21st century world of
ours and you will note that the destination of OBOR is Beijing. All
the roads
and railways lead to one destination, President Xi Jinping’s Beijing.

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed a 31-year-old MBS
Law & Politics

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed
a 31-year-old MBS [who allegedly while on holiday liked a yacht, cut a
cheque for $550m (Sh56.99 billion) on the spot and threw the owner
‘’overboard’’] and is surely plotting an incision into Doha and a
regime change.

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UAE ambassador: "We do not promote the idea of press freedom" @MiddleEastEye
Law & Politics

An Emirati diplomat has justified demands that Qatar close Al Jazeera
and other media organisations it "supports" by saying that the UAE
does not back a free press.

His comments come as a senior UN official said that the demand
represents a "serious threat to media freedom" and called on
international governments to "not pursue" it.


See below why @AJENews and @AJArabic are in the crosshairs.

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15 AUG 11 :: Soft Power #Qatar and @AJENews @AJArabic
Law & Politics

What I want to look at is Aljazeera and how it is a preeminent example
of soft power in this 21st century of ours. Soft power is the ability
to obtain what one wants through co-option and attraction. It can be
contrasted with ‘hard power’, that is the use of coercion and payment.
Soft power can be wielded not just by states, but by all actors in
international politics, such as NGOs or international institutions.
The idea of attraction as a form of power dates back to ancient
Chinese philosophers such as Lao Tzu in the 7th century BC. “Water is
fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is
rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and
yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another
paradox: what is soft is strong.” Lao
Tzu. This idea was further developed by Joseph Nye of Harvard
University in his 2004 book, Soft Power: The means to success in world
politics and I happen to believe that Emir of Qatar is Nye and Lao
Tzu’s very best student.

There are about 250,000 Qataris in a world of about seven billion
souls. That’s considerably less than 0.1 per cent. They tell me
Aljazeera is beamed into more than 200m households. Since Aljazeera
started streaming their content direct onto my lap top (my better half
calls it my love top and I told Nick Clark, who is a presenter at

‘My wife has decided to kick you out of my bed at night.’ I take the
lap top to bed when events are accelerating and I want to keep up) The
numbers have spiked even further. The point I am making is this. You
can have all the hard power you want but we live in an Information and
Communications Century now and in the context of that new landscape,
Aljazeera has delivered a spectacular return any way I care to measure
it, for the Emir.

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Trump's immigration ban excludes countries where he has business ties @bpolitics
Law & Politics

His proposed list doesn’t include Muslim-majority countries where his
Trump Organization has done business or pursued potential deals.
Properties include golf courses in the United Arab Emirates and two
luxury towers operating in Turkey.


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The dollar shuddered to its lows for the year on Thursday
International Trade

The dollar shuddered to its lows for the year on Thursday as a
drumbeat of hawkish comments from major central banks signalled the
era of easy money might be coming to an end for more than just the
United States.

Support for the dollar eroded as investors realised the U.S. Federal
Reserve might not be the only game in town when it came to higher
interest rates.

In Britain, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney surprised many by
conceding a hike was likely to be needed as the economy came closer to
running at full capacity.

The Bank of Canada went further, with two top policymakers suggesting
they might tighten as early as July.

That followed comments earlier in the week from European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi that stimulus might need to be toned down so it
does not become more accommodative as the economy recovers.

ECB sources tried to hose down the talk but could not stop the euro
hitting a one-year high against the U.S. dollar.

"If we want to know what the ECB is planning, we will choose a
carefully scripted Draghi speech over anonymous sources every time,"
said Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow.

"Backed by the Eurozone's strong current account surplus and the
contrast with a Fed which could pause on rate hikes for a while, the
euro looks to be on target for $1.1500-1.1600."

On Thursday, the single currency had already pressed on to $1.1405
having climbed three percent in as many days.

The euro also surged to a 16-month top on the yen as investors doubt
the Bank of Japan will be in any position to begin winding back its
stimulus for a long time to come.

The Canadian dollar vaulted to C$1.3027, having enjoyed its biggest
daily gain in three months, while sterling rebounded to $1.2961.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1403
Dollar Index 95.87
Japan Yen 112.30
Swiss Franc 0.9590
Pound 1.2965
Aussie 0.7661
India Rupee 64.455
South Korea Won 1141.21
Brazil Real 3.2812
Egypt Pound 18.1290
South Africa Rand 12.9298

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U.S. production tumbled by 100,000 barrels a day last week, the most since early July, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday

The decline was likely driven by field maintenance in Alaska and the
impact of tropical storm Cindy. Crude stockpiles unexpectedly expanded
while gasoline inventories fell a second week.

West Texas Intermediate for August delivery was at $44.93 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 19 cents, at 11:28 a.m. in Hong
Kong. Total volume traded was about 2 percent above the 100-day
average. The contract gained 50 cents to $44.74 on Wednesday. Prices
are down 7 percent this month.

Brent for August settlement, which expires Friday, gained 15 cents to
$47.46 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The
contract added 66 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $47.31 on Wednesday. The
global benchmark traded at a premium of $2.53 to WTI.

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27-JUN-2017 :: I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis

I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a
serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial
crisis. These folks did not end their party, they just gorged on
credit and now their lenders are set to come knocking. The end is
indeed nigh

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Inside Israel's Secret Program to Get Rid of African Refugees Foreign Policy

They were promised asylum somewhere closer to home. Then they were
discarded — often in a war zone.

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All this bad news has left Kabila searching for friends. On Sunday in Pretoria, he found one

All this bad news has left Kabila searching for friends. On Sunday in
Pretoria, he found one. Jacob Zuma rolled out the red carpet — both
literally and metaphorically — for his fellow head of state. The
relationship between the pair has always been unusually amicable and
goes beyond the diplomatic.

“The relationship between Zuma and Kabila is the best Joseph has in
the region. In fact, it’s more of a personal relationship than a state
to state relationship,” said Claude Kabemba, director of the Southern
Africa Resource Watch.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.86% 2017

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.9298


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1290


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +21.53% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +15.54% 2017


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Tanzanian Media Misrepresent the Dispute Between the Government and the World's Third Largest Gold Mining Company Global Voices

On June 14, John Magufuli, the president of Tanzania, met with John
Thornton, the chairman of Barrick Gold—the world’s largest gold mining
company—who had flown in from North America for the purpose. Reports
of the meeting dominated the headlines in Tanzania for the next
several days.

After the Magufuli-Thornton meeting, the president’s office released a
video, shot on the steps of State House, in which the two men give
their versions of what transpired during the meeting. To spare you the
trouble of watching, here’s a summary: the president thanks Thornton
for coming, and for agreeing to pay what is due. Thornton says his
company was pleased to be able to enter into a dialogue to resolve the
ongoing dispute, and would be happy to pay the rightful amount that
was due.

The next day following the meeting, however, six Swahili papers
portrayed the meeting as a big win for the president and for Tanzania,
going well beyond even what the president himself said about the
meeting. Some stated that Acacia/Barrick agreed to pay what is being
demanded of them, or that they have admitted responsibility for
wrongdoing, neither of which is reflected in the actual agreement

The varying interpretations of the outcome of the meeting between
Magufuli and Thornton by the Tanzanian media raises the question of
whether these journalists and editors are aware they were potentially
misleading the public; and if they did know, why were they doing so?
Could it have anything to do with the law that allows the government
to suspend Mawio so easily? Could they be worried that what happened
to Mawio could happen to others as well?

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Samsung blazes a trail adapting for the African market FT Subscriber

Samsung has suffered a torrid 12 months including the recall last
autumn of its fire-prone Galaxy Note 7 handset and the arrest of its
acting head, Lee Jae-yong, on bribery allegations in February.

Even so, South Korea’s largest conglomerate has had a good run in
Africa. It was named Africa’s most admired brand of 2016 by the annual
Brand Africa 100 survey.

Samsung designs products specifically for African consumers under its
“Built for Africa” strategy. “The African customer has different
needs,” says Melissa Cook, managing director of African Sunrise
Partners, a business research company. “Devices need to work in a
harsher environment.” Samsung’s AddWash washing machines, for
instance, are designed to minimise water use and withstand dips and
surges in the power supply.

The South Korean manufacturer dominates the continent’s $15.5bn
smartphone market, with a 42 per cent share of sales in 2016,
according to technology researcher IDC. Samsung is also present in
many African homes, offices, schools and hospitals with products such
as air-conditioners, televisions, printers and refrigerators.

Samsung is not alone in adapting its products for the African market.
“Unilever, Nestlé and GSK have been reducing packet sizes to meet the
needs of African consumers,” says Sharat Dua, who manages the Magna
Africa Fund at Charlemagne Capital.

In many African markets, poorer people might prefer to buy single
sachets of items such as coffee or personal care products for smaller
sums at a time.

Similarly, Coca-Cola has adapted its delivery service in the Moroccan
city of Fes. As motor vehicles are prohibited, its drinks are
delivered by donkey.

Such adaptations have helped global brands extend their domination of
local markets across Africa, while indigenous African brands have
shrunk in stature. Of Brand Africa’s top 100 brands last year, just 16
were African, compared with 23 in 2015.

These 16 brands, including Kenya’s Tusker beer and Nigerian industrial
conglomerate Dangote, represented just 0.75 per cent of the total
value of the top 100. MTN, the South African telecoms group, was
previously Africa’s most admired brand but was unseated by Samsung
last year following a scandal that saw MTN pay a fine of some $1bn to
regulators in Nigeria.

Last year was difficult for many African companies. Hindered by the
downturn in oil and commodity prices and exchange rate volatility,
African economies grew at their slowest rates on average in more than
20 years, weakening consumer purchasing power.

Global companies were able to weather the storm. In Nigeria, for
example, where recession and a questionable foreign exchange policy
shackled local businesses, some international companies profited.

“Nestlé’s market share in Nigeria has gone up dramatically, while its
competitors have disappeared,” says Oliver Bell, portfolio manager at
T Rowe Price, the fund management company.

Economic headwinds have been exacerbated by structural challenges.
“Two areas where we are lagging behind are in research and
intellectual property,” says Thebe Ikalafeng, chairman of Brand
Africa, a non-profit organisation that showcases African companies. In
2007, the African Union set a target of investing 1 per cent of GDP on
research and development. Today only Kenya (0.8 per cent), Mali (0.7
per cent) and South Africa (0.7 per cent) come close. By contrast,
South Korea’s investment rate of 4.3 per cent makes it the world
leader in R&D spending.

In addition, Africa’s trademark activity — often a sign of companies
investing in and building brands — in 2015 represented just 3 per cent
of the global total, according to the World Intellectual Property

African companies also struggle with access to credit and poor
infrastructure, says Ramazan Yavuz, research manager at IDC.

Nevertheless, optimism is high on the continent, particularly for the
prospects for technology and financial services.

One area of success has been the bypassing of traditional banking
systems made possible by high penetration of mobile telephony on the
continent, says Mr Dua of Charlemagne Capital. He describes M-Pesa,
the Kenyan mobile money service, as “the classic African innovation
story”. In 2015, about $28bn — equivalent to 44 per cent of Kenyan GDP
— flowed through M-Pesa, which was used by more than 25m customers to
send funds, access loans and purchase goods and services.

Rising smartphone ownership, mobile broadband usage and data traffic
in Africa point to an attractive tech ecosystem. “We strongly believe
that the technology sector in the region will continue to be a strong
area of growth,” says Pule Taukobong, founding partner of CRE Venture
Capital, which specialises in investing in sub-Saharan tech start-ups.

Samsung’s success in Africa has been down to the company’s ability to
merge global technology with African knowledge. The same is true for
M-Pesa, which, according to Mr Dua, was ahead of the rest of the world
in using the mobile phone as a payment channel. “The innovation and
technology on the continent is astounding,” says Ms Cook. “But
companies have to take the lead.”

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"It's clear that the corn shortage was badly handled by government," said Emma Gordon, a senior analyst at Bath, England-based Verisk Maplecroft.
Kenyan Economy

“It feeds into disenchantment, into the corruption narrative. The
timing for Jubilee is atrocious.”

People “are linking the high cost of living and food shortages to
corruption,” Dismas Mokua, an independent political analyst in
Nairobi, the capital, said by phone.

Opposition pledges to crack down on graft by dismantling cartels it
alleges have “captured the state” strike a chord with voters who see
the Jubilee Party as having presided over “massive corruption,” he

The government’s handling of the corn shortages has fed into “widely
held perceptions of elite corruption within government” and may boost
voter turnout, according to Verisk Maplecroft’s Gordon. More voter
participation reduces the advantage of Kenyatta, who would benefit
from low turnout in opposition strongholds, she said.

Kenyatta would get 48 percent of the vote versus Odinga’s 39 percent
if elections were held now, according to an opinion poll by the
Nairobi-based Star newspaper published Tuesday. Kenyatta won the 2013
election with 50.07 of the vote, when Odinga -- then running for the
presidency for the third time -- received 43.3 percent.

“Kenyatta may still be ahead, but the question is can he get over the
50 percent mark,” Gordon said.

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27-JUN-2017 if we stripped out food inflation, the inflation basket will soon turn negative
Kenyan Economy

I was talking to Sheila M’Mbijjewe [ e Central Bank of Kenya Deputy
Governor] and she noted that if we stripped out food inflation, the
inflation basket will soon turn negative. Government of Kenya bond
yields are set to enter a sweet spot as food inflation turns lower and
Investors seek to snap up double digit yields which hold up when
translated into hard currency yields [because of the stability of the

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African politics meets Chinese engineers: The Chinese-built Standard Gauge Railway Project in Kenya and East Africa Uwe Wissenbach and Yuan Wang
Kenyan Economy

This paper is the first detailed case study of a strategic
government-contracted Chinese infrastructure project in Kenya. We
cover the Financing process and the  first stages of implementation.
We provide an analysis of the project’s regional and national economic
and political implications for Kenya and East Africa.

If confirmed, Rwanda and Uganda’s exit poses a challenge for Kenya as
the cost-benefit calculation for the two mega-projects— the SGR and
the pipeline—will change dramatically.

Our Field research was inspired by approaches used by Giese (2014) who
argues that the “positionality of the local African actor is key for
understanding the nature of Chinese-African interaction on the

THE SINGLE-TRACK, DIESEL-FUELED SGR was built by the Chinese Road and
Bridge Corporation (CRBC) under a government-to-government
agreement.32 It was financed largely through Chinese loans.33 The SGR
is only one out of many Chinese-built infrastructure projects in
Kenya, but it is by far the most strategic and politically salient
investment. The colonial-era railway carries only 0.9 million tons of
cargo annually from the Indian Ocean into land-locked cities in Kenya
and Uganda, com- pared to the Mombasa port’s throughput of 22 million
tons in 2013 at a snail’s pace, but it is expected to continue to
operate. The new SGR, built mostly alongside the existing track, but
without the winding bends, is meant to substantially increase cargo
through- put by rail and to lower transport costs and time by as much
as 60%.

THE NATIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS of the Kenyan government di er
considerably in their degree of interest and their approaches to the
SGR project. At the national level, the controversies plaguing the SGR
relate to the overall process of commissioning and contracting the
railway, including the costs of opacity. For many observers, these
costs suggest that national elites may have bene ted illicitly from
the contracting process.

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World's Biggest Black-Tea Exporter Targets 20% Output Increase
Kenyan Economy

Kenya, the world’s biggest exporter of black tea, expects production
of the leaves to rise by about 20 percent by the end of the decade, as
farmers harvest from new bushes, according to the industry regulator.

Output is projected to jump to 500,000 metric tons in 2020 from a
projected 412,000 tons this year, after a drought damaged plants in
most growing areas, said Samuel Ogola, head of the Tea Directorate.
The nation grew a record 473,000 tons in 2016, which earned the
country 120 billion shillings ($1.16 billion) of export revenue.

“There is a lot of replanting of tea by farmers, which could see us
hitting 500 million in no time, most probably by 2020,” Ogola said
Tuesday in an interview in the capital, Nairobi. Farmers have been
replacing old bushes with higher-yielding clones, he said.

The nation’s Export Promotion Council is “aggressively promoting” tea,
alongside agro-processing, flowers, leather and textiles to boost
exports. Kenya needs to increase shipments by 14 percent annually to
help halve its trade deficit by 2030, according to Chief Executive
Officer Peter Biwott.

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East African Breweries Limited (EABL)'s planned Sh15 billion factory in Kisumu
Kenyan Economy

Beer maker East African Breweries Limited (EABL)’s planned Sh15
billion factory in Kisumu will see up to 45,000 farmers contracted to
supply sorghum which the firm uses to produce Senator keg, a low-cost

EABL has contracted 30,000 farmers in Siaya, Migori, Kisumu, Homa Bay,
Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi to meet the 20,000 metric tonnes
annual demand of the cereal.

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EABL Cautionary Statement
Kenyan Economy

On 23rd June 2017, the Board of Directors of East African Breweries
Limited approved an investment in a new Brewery in Kisumu, Kenya at a
cost of Kshs 15 billion. The investment is likely to spread over a
period of 2 years prior to complete on.
Modalities of funding for the project are still under deliberation and
shall be communicated to the regulators and shareholders in due
The shareholders of East African Breweries Limited and the public are
advised to exercise cau on when dealing in shares of the Company.

read more

EABL share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Closing Price:           259.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        204,810,558,204
EPS:             12.2
PE:                 21.230

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N.S.E Today

The FX markets have seen some high-octane action over the last
sessions. Central Bankers from Canada to the United Kingdom to the ECB
have been talking tough and around the withdrawal of stimulus.  The
Euro pressed on to $1.1405 versus the Dollar and as clocked a +3%
rally in 3 sessions, having climbed three percent in as many days. The
Canadian dollar vaulted to C$1.3027, having enjoyed its biggest daily
gain in three months, while sterling rebounded to just shy of 1.3000.
The Trump Dollar has become a Chump Trade as the Dollar gets sold off
across the board.
Kenya announced it has suspended its early Oil export Plan. It was
always a bit of a PR Stunt and with Oil below $50.00 a barrel, it
would not have received any positive PR Traction and might even have
created a negative feedback loop.
The Nairobi All Share closed lower for the 2nd session and closed
-0.71% at 153.22.
The All Share has corrected -1.504% over 2 sessions and since closing
at a 23 month high. I expect a deeper correction.
The NSE20 Index closed -12.65 points lower at 3596.56.
Equity Turnover clocked 765.803m but volume was concentrated in BAT,
Safaricom and Equity.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom shaved off -1.08% to close at 23.00 and traded 9.288m
shares. Safaricom sits -2.127% below a record closing high set on 3
occasions this month and is expected to post Fresh all time highs in
short order.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank firmed 25cents to close at 38.00 and traded 4.245m shares.
Equity Bank is +26.66% through 2017.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL's announcement of a 15b shilling investment in Kisumu and the
visit of its CEO Ivan Menezes to State House certainly captured
mind-share. EABL issued a cautionary Note this morning which said

On 23rd June 2017, the Board of Directors of East African Breweries
Limited approved an investment in a new Brewery in Kisumu, Kenya at a
cost of Kshs 15 billion. The investment is likely to spread over a
period of 2 years prior to completion.

Modalities of funding for the project are still under deliberation and
shall be communicated to the regulators and shareholders in due

The 2nd part of this announcement caught People's attention.
Counterintuitively, it speaks to EABL's muscle that they can announce
a $150m investment without having to have locked up the funds.

EABL edged +0.39% higher to close at 260.00 on light volume of 8,300
shares. EABL is +6.55% through 2017.

BAT was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and traded
328,900 shares all at 802.00 -4.3%. BAT has been a significant
Under-Performer in 2017 and is -11.77% through 2017.

KenGen continued to see profit-taking after a stellar run-up in 2017
and closed -4.76% at 8.00. KenGen is +37.93% through 2017.

Mumias Sugar
rebounded +5.00% to close at 1.05 helped by the news that
the GOK was set to disburse 500m to the Company next week.

Crown Paints rebounded +6.29% to close at 76.00. Its a thinly traded
share and talk about a possible share Buy-Back has given the stock a
lift. Crown Paints is +80.95% in 2017.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2017

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