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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 07th of July 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya
Africa


If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

read more


The yield on German 10-year bunds rose nine basis points to 0.56 percent as of 12:30 p.m. in New York, reaching the highest level since January 2016 BBG
Africa


More than 580,000 bund futures contracts had traded by about mid-day
in London, about 1.7 times the number traded as of the same time on
Wednesday.

read more


The Eagles - Hotel California
Africa


U.S. crude #oil futures settle at $45.52/bbl. ⬆$0.39. +0.86%. @Lee_Saks
https://twitter.com/Lee_Saks/status/883030861716783105

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Wheat's getting smoked @TheStalwart
Africa


Home Thoughts

For 5 Years when I was at school I would hear the chimes of big Ben
every 15 minutes.

“Piglet sidled up to Pooh from behind.
"Pooh!" he whispered.
"Yes, Piglet?"
"Nothing," said Piglet, taking Pooh's paw. "I just wanted to be sure of you.”
― A.A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner

“If ever there is tomorrow when we're not together... there is
something you must always remember. You are braver than you believe,
stronger than you seem, and smarter than you think. But the most
important thing is, even if we're apart... I'll always be with you.”
― A.A. Milne

“I think we dream so we don’t have to be apart for so long. If we’re
in each other’s dreams, we can be together all the time.”
― A.A. Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh

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This is a dystopia, but also a post-apocalypse. The dystopia survived the apocalypse, nobody can get their head around it
Africa


This is a dystopia, but also a post-apocalypse. The dystopia survived
the apocalypse, nobody can get their head around it—too bad! You can
do post-apocalypse things, survivalist stuff, rationing, killing, new
tribalism, but you can also go the dystopia route, struggle against
the decadent lords and masters, smash the seductive machine that’s
controlling your head. Just because you’re crazy doesn’t mean you’re
not also stupid, and neither precludes the possibility that you’ve got
your boot on the neck of someone even worse off.

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MIND GAMES How Ex-Spies Think Putin Will Sucker 'Sociopathic Narcissist' Trump @thedailybeast
Law & Politics


Foreign ministries around the world are filled with anticipation over
what will happen when Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meet for the
first time at the G20 summit. But veteran U.S. spies who’ve studied
manipulation tactics, particularly from their Russian counterparts,
are confident they know what’s going to unfold.
Putin, a former KGB operations officer, will not just be practicing
interpersonal diplomacy, they say. He’ll be putting his tradecraft as
a spy to work. His main asset: Trump’s massive, delicate ego.
It won’t just be the expected flattery, from the spies’ perspective,
though flattery is key to dealing with the “sociopathic narcissist”
tendencies one ex-CIA interrogator sees in Trump. Putin is likely to
stoke Trump’s ire, encourage him against his perceived enemies and
validate his inclinations – particularly the ones that move U.S.
policy in the directions Putin wants.
Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Moscow. The Trump-Putin meeting,
say Russian politicians and Putin’s former KGB colleagues, is an
overdue opportunity to equalize the Washington-Moscow relationship.
“Putin,” one-time KGB general Oleg Kalugin told The Daily Beast, “he
has been in power for so many years and, by character, he knows how to
handle things and how to outsmart others, including presidents of the
United States.”
While everything about this meeting is momentous, the two sides are
not on equal diplomatic footing. Russia’s interference in the 2016
election – something U.S. intelligence characterizes as a certainty,
while Trump, again, casts doubt on that conclusion – has created a
political maelstrom for Trump. Everything resulting from the meeting
will be scrutinized in Washington
Putin is filling that vacuum. Ahead of meeting the U.S. president in
Hamburg, his foreign ministry has said the agenda will concern
everything from Syria to Ukraine to returning two intelligence
complexes on U.S. soil – even to gay rights in Chechnya. Meanwhile,
Trump national security adviser H.R. McMaster has said there won’t be
a “specific agenda” for discussion, beyond “whatever the president
wants to talk about.” There is confusion on the U.S. side about
whether McMaster’s Russia chief, the Putin skeptic Fiona Hill, will
attend the meeting.
Putin, former spies say, is well-positioned to dominate the meeting.
Whether he wants commitments from Trump on specific things or simply a
grip-and-grin photo op, Putin stands a good chance of getting his way
– provided he tells Trump to ignore the losers and the critics and
portrays what Putin wants as how Trump gets the drop on them yet
again.
“Trump is just about a sociopathic narcissist,” said Glenn Carle, a
retired CIA interrogator and analyst. “That’s not to denounce him,
just an assessment of the guy…. Fulsome praise, full of garbage, is a
small price to pay to get what you want.”
To cultivate Trump, Carle said, “you praise and piss him off at the
same time. You want to push his buttons to get him to do something
reflexive.” That is, point Trump’s fury in the direction of what Putin
can portray as a mutual enemy – even if it’s a traditional U.S. ally.
“What do they want? Say it’s eastern Ukraine. You continue to
undermine the U.S. commitment  and the need for NATO, and you do that
by talking about what he thinks he understands: money and trade. You
build upon the spurious line that Germany and NATO are free riders,
bilking Americans out of money. ‘Why should Americans die for some
Krauts?’ That plays in the Peoria that is Trump’s mind.”
“The truly scary part is Putin only has to say to Trump ‘you are right
and the haters are wrong’ to manipulate him,” adds Naveed Jamali, a
former undercover FBI double agent. The Russians, Jamali added, are
“devious motherfuckers,” skilled at manipulating others into doing
their bidding without recognizing it.
For that, Putin is likely to rely on “techniques of flattery.”
A test case for Russia came in Saudi Arabia, Jamali said. There, the
Saudis threw Trump a massive party for the president’s first foreign
trip, replete with nonstop flattery, a dance involving swords and a
photo with a mysterious orb that garnered worldwide publicity. Weeks
later, with Saudi Arabia in a massive regional dispute with Qatar,
Trump openly backed the Saudi side even as his secretary of state, Rex
Tillerson, called for an end to the conflict.
In the absence of a clear Russia policy from the young administration,
Putin’s goal for the meeting is to maneuver that emerging policy in
his favor – or, failing that, encourage the chaos that tends to
characterize Trump’s foreign policies.
“Putin’s minimum objective will be to demonstrate that Russia is a
co-equal power, which he can achieve with a simple handshake-and-smile
photo,” said Evelyn Farkas, the Pentagon’s top Russia policy official
in the Obama administration. Beyond that is for Trump to give a
“verbal commitment to work toward returning the intelligence
[facilities] shut down by Obama” or a similar pledge to “work to
modify or eliminate sanctions on Russia.”
In Moscow, all this appears as the U.S. finally giving Russia its due.
"Trump should be calm, listen to all Putin's arguments and avoid
making any spontaneous decisions," former parliamentarian and KGB
officer Gennady Gudkov, an opposition leader, told The Daily Beast.
"Putin is going to be charming, as to him Trump is more important than
most of his closest cronies; the Kremlin depends on the future
relations with U.S.A, they live with Trump on their mind."

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03-JUL-2017 @realDonaldTrump resides in the @WhiteHouse from where Zeus-like he hurls @Twitter thunderbolts
Law & Politics


@realDonaldTrump ranked at a one per cent chance at the start of the
Republican primaries, overturned the odds and today he resides in the
@WhiteHouse from where Zeus-like he hurls @Twitter thunderbolts. Last
week, President Trump decided to showboat his ‘’insanity’’ again on a
public timeline..

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In North Korea, 'Surgical Strike' Could Spin Into 'Worst Kind of Fighting'
Law & Politics


Even the most limited strike risks staggering casualties, because
North Korea could retaliate with the thousands of artillery pieces it
has positioned along its border with the South. Though the arsenal is
of limited range and could be destroyed in days, the United States
defense secretary, Jim Mattis, recently warned that if North Korea
used it, it “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most
people’s lifetimes.”

North and South Korea, separated by the world’s most heavily armed
border, have had more than half a century to prepare for a resumption
of the war that was suspended in 1953. While the North’s weaponry is
less advanced, the South suffers a distinct geographical disadvantage:
Nearly half its population lives within 50 miles of the Demilitarized
Zone, including the 10 million people in Seoul, its capital.

“You have this massive agglomeration of everything that is important
in South Korea — government, business and the huge population — and
all of it is in this gigantic megalopolis that starts 30 miles from
the border and ends 70 miles from the border,” said Robert E. Kelly, a
professor of political science at Pusan National University in South
Korea. “In terms of national security, it’s just nuts.”

Conclusions


Kim learnt his lesson. Get a Deterrent otherwise You get rolled over
just like Muammar and Saddam.

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Here's Why China Tolerates a Nuclear North Korea @bv
Law & Politics


China values regional stability, which is good for trade. It doesn’t
want a nuclear war in its backyard. But it couldn’t possibly benefit
from the collapse of Kim’s regime, which would almost certainly leave
a U.S. ally, South Korea, in charge of a unified Korea across the
border. China also knows that the U.S. can’t realistically attack
North Korea because of the loss of South Korean and American lives
that would follow.

Related: Does Trump Understand Nuclear Game Theory?

The result is that China doesn’t lose much as North Korea gets
stronger. And it gains strategically as its own buffer state becomes
still more impregnable.

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The Hermit Kingdom North Korea is the perfect instrument [the Attack Dog] for China
Law & Politics


The media keeps chanting like a mantra, China will rein North Korea
in. It is not in their Interests to have a mad dog like North Korea as
an ally. And whether its the BBC, The New York Times or Radio France.
I venture this is an embedded narrative fallacy and that most Western
commentators are apparently popping Qaaludes. Let me tell you why.
China is taking a much more forward position and particularly in Asia,
its near abroad. I believe North Korea is the perfect instrument [the
Attack Dog] for China to show those who choose to operate outside
their sphere of influence [and by extension, in the US’] that there
will be a very heavy price to pay.I venture that the Chinese are quite
happy to see those 25,000 US soldiers run right into the sea and we
need to grow up [as does the media] and see it for what it is.

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They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker
Law & Politics


FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom. This land is ruled
by The House of Kim and its capital is Pyongyang. The first and
‘Eternal’ President was Kim Il-sung and his successor Kim Jong-il
whose designated successor is Kim Jung-un. They all have had tiny
little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker.

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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011
Law & Politics


I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter. Who is
in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and raw
footage, I note a very powerful message.

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U.S. bombers challenge China in South China Sea flyover
Law & Politics


Two U.S bombers flew over the disputed South China Sea, the U.S. Air
Force said in a statement on Friday, asserting the right to treat the
region as international territory, despite China's territorial claims
in the busy waterway.

Before their flight on Thursday, the two B-1Bs trained with Japanese
jet fighters in the neighboring East China Sea, the first time the two
forces have ever conducted night-time drills.

That U.S. military activity came amid heightened tension in the region
after North Korea claimed it has developed a long range missile that
could threaten the United States.

The U.S. wants China to do more to pressure Pyongyang to halt its
research into missiles and nuclear bombs.

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@Brexit Jeremy Corbyn says he's prepared for another snap general election
Law & Politics


Conclusions

Its an extraordinary situation and Jeremy Corbyn is surely headed to
No.10 within 12 months.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1415
Dollar Index 95.97
Japan Yen 113.72
Swiss Franc 0.9610
Pound 1.2958
Aussie 0.7591
India Rupee 64.745
South Korea Won 1155.73
Brazil Real 3.2989
Egypt Pound 17.8750
South Africa Rand 13.4538

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Food Prices Near 2-Year High Thanks to a Record Surge in Butter and Wheat
Commodities


Record butter prices, gains in meat and wheat’s drought-fueled rally
have pushed global food costs to near the highest in two years.

Limited export availability in the dairy market has made products
including butter and cheese more expensive, while hot and dry weather
in the U.S. and Europe in the past month sent wheat futures surging.
That helped a gauge of food prices rise by 1.4 percent in June, the
United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said in a report
Thursday.

“This is a month for wheat prices, and meat is firming up,” Abdolreza
Abbassian, a senior economist at the FAO in Rome, said by phone. “A
lot of the increases in the dairy market come from the butter
situation.”

The FAO’s food index has rebounded 17 percent since touching a
seven-year low in early 2016. The latest increase comes after worries
the weather impact on crops in North America and western Europe sent
wheat futures to multiyear highs. The meat market has also been hit by
limited export supplies from some nations, as well as strong demand,
and there have also been concerns about bird flu affecting poultry,
the FAO said.

The organization’s food-price index rose to 175.2 points last month,
near a two-year high set in February.

Some price changes for June:

Butter jumped 14 percent to a record.
Meat rose 1.8 percent, up for a sixth month.
Grains gained 4.2 percent to a one-year high.

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Miscommunication Caused 'Mind Boggling' Pakistan Rupee Dive
Emerging Markets


Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar blamed miscommunication by
“individuals” and institutions for the rupee’s biggest tumble in nine
years and said a new central bank governor maybe appointed as early as
Friday.

Dar told reporters in Islamabad on Thursday that the rupee’s 3.1
percent drop on Wednesday against the dollar was “mind boggling” and
there was no reason to weaken the currency as the country’s foreign
currency reserves are stable.

Frontier Markets

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Big jump in African tourists BBC
Africa


Africans are increasingly driving the growing demand for tourism in
their home continent, contrary to perceptions, a new UN report
suggests.
International visitor numbers to Africa more than doubled from 1995-2014.
While an average of four out of 10 of them were from other African
countries, the figure rose to two out of three in sub-Saharan Africa.
Analysts say liberalising air transport and further relaxing visa
rules could boost tourism further.
It currently accounts for nearly 9% of the continent's economy.
The latest figures are in a report by the UN conference on trade and
development (Unctad), entitled Economic Development in Africa Report
2017: Tourism for Transformative and Inclusive Growth.
International visitor numbers averaged a rise of 6% a year, going from
24 million in 1995-98, to 56 million between 2011 and 2014.
The sector supports more than 21 million jobs - or 1 in 14 jobs - on
the continent. International tourists arrivals and tourism revenues
grew at 6% and 9% over 20 years.
Over the next decade continued growth is projected to add an extra 11
million jobs in Africa.
"In Rwanda, the abolition of visa requirements for fellow members of
the East African Community in 2011 helped increase intraregional
tourists from 283,000 in 2010, to 478,000 in 2013," the report said.

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Deep trouble South African mining is in crisis @TheEconomist
Africa


South Africa’s mining industry is shrinking. At its peak in 1980,
mining accounted for a fifth of the country’s GDP; the number now
stands at 7.3%. High costs, low commodity prices, labour strife and
falling productivity have all taken their toll. Mines have shed 70,000
jobs over the past five years. More cuts are coming. AngloGold
Ashanti, a gold-mining giant, last week announced plans to lay off
8,500 workers, a third of its South African workforce. At Sibanye,
many of the zama-zamas are former miners who return to work
underground for powerful syndicates.

Mining firms are also being hurt by government policies. A new mining
charter introduced last month by South Africa’s mining minister,
Mosebenzi Zwane, would force companies to ensure that at least 30% of
their shares are in black hands, up from the current minimum of 26%.
Under the new charter, companies would be required to maintain this
level of black ownership regardless of whether black investors sell
out. They would also have to pay out at least 1% of their turnover
each year to their black shareholders. Had this rule been in effect in
2016, black shareholders would have got 5.8bn rand of the total of
5.9bn rand paid as dividends, leaving almost nothing for anyone else,
notes the Chamber of Mines of South Africa.

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Egypt Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates by 200 Basis Points BBG
Africa


Egypt’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rates
by 200 basis points for the second time this year in an effort to
control inflation after the government raised fuel and electricity
prices.

The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Tarek Amer, raised the
overnight deposit rate to 18.75 percent, a record high, the bank said
on Thursday. The lending rate was also raised to 19.75 percent. All
but one of the eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast the
rates would remain unchanged.

The decision brings the total increase in borrowing costs to 700 basis
points since the central bank floated the pound in November before
securing a $12 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. The
weaker currency, coupled with cuts in fuel and electricity subsidies,
has helped drive inflation to about 30 percent. The IMF in April
signaled a preference for curbing inflation through interest rates.

Conclusions


Buy Egypt T-Bills unhedged and run the Trade

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Nigeria Has Succession Jitters, Again
Africa


Nigeria is awash in nervous speculation over the health of President
Muhammadu Buhari, who hasn’t appeared in public since he returned to
the U.K. for medical treatment for an undisclosed ailment on May 7.
Buhari, 74 and a Muslim, has formally designated his deputy, Yemi
Osinbajo, acting president as he did when he was away on medical leave
for 49 days from Jan. 20. The prospect of Osinbajo, a 60-year-old
Christian, serving out the remaining two years of Buhari’s term raises
the specter of sectarian tension in a country that has seen plenty of
it in the past. Succession jitters also heighten concern about
government paralysis at a time when the economy is in recession.

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03-JUL-2017 Over in Nigeria, which entered a Yar'Adua deja-vu worm-hole
Africa


Over in Nigeria, which entered a Yar’Adua deja-vu worm-hole, the
authorities continue to take the fight to the forex markets. What we
know is that the day of reckoning cannot be side-stepped

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Chinese town at the centre of global ivory smuggling
Africa


Shuidong town is home to a network of ivory trafficking syndicates
whose reach extends to East and West Africa, including the elephant
poaching hotspots of Tanzania and Mozambique.

One syndicate member told undercover investigators that Shuidong is
the destination for a staggering 80 per cent of all poached ivory
smuggled into China from Africa.

A new report, The Shuidong Connection: Exposing the global hub of the
illegal ivory tradePDF, by the London-based Environmental
Investigation Agency (EIA) is the culmination of almost three years of
painstaking undercover work during which investigators infiltrated one
of the leading syndicates. This involved tracking a shipment of more
than two tonnes of tusks from northern Mozambique to Shuidong,
providing unique insights into the workings of an active ivory
smuggling gang.

EIA first encountered the Shuidong smugglers in September 2014 while
investigating the catastrophic poaching of elephants in Tanzania. In
Zanzibar, the main gateway for shipments of tusks flowing out of
Tanzania, EIA met with a sea cucumber trader from Shuidong who
revealed that a community of his compatriots in Zanzibar was behind
the smuggling, with a single group sending out 20 shipments to China
in just one year.

They formed part of an international network of people from Shuidong
supplying the booming Chinese market for sea cucumbers; with their
knowledge of working in Africa and supply routes to China, their
presence in strategic coastal towns and their business cover, the
Shuidong traders in East and West Africa were ideally positioned to
move into the illegal ivory trade.

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'Are we open to acquiring? Absolutely," Chief Executive Officer @JeremyAwori @Barclays_Kenya Bloomberg
Kenyan Economy


“Are we open to acquiring? Absolutely,” Chief Executive Officer Jeremy
Awori said in an interview on Wednesday in Nairobi, the capital. “So
you’ll either be looking to acquire capabilities you don’t have, which
will be mutually compatible, or you’d be able to see efficiencies that
you’d be able to gain being together, rather than running two separate
entities.”

Awori’s comments that he is “very open minded” to making purchases
that will boost shareholder value comes as KCB Group Ltd., the
country’s biggest lender by assets, bids for state-owned National Bank
of Kenya Ltd. KCB is seeking to buy NBK as the regulator urges
consolidation among its 42 lenders, which is more per person than
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy, and
Nigeria, the biggest oil producer.

The stock fell as much as 2.5 percent, the most since June 27, before
paring losses to close 1 percent down at 9.85 shillings by the end of
Nairobi trading. The shares have gained 7.7 percent so far this year,
under performing the Nairobi Securities Exchange All Share Index,
which has risen 13 percent in the period.

Choosing to centralize government deposits in a single commercial
lender will create a “super bank” that may cause liquidity problems
for the banks that currently compete for cash holdings with different
offerings, the Barclays Kenya CEO said. Talks between the government
and the Kenya Bankers Association with regards to state deposits are
continuing, Awori said.

“There’s a need to think through the pros and cons of this,” he said.
“Just the way we had the interest-rates law, you don’t want a
situation where you lurch into it.”

read more


@Barclays_Kenya share price data here +7.69% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           9.80
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        53,229,052,800
EPS:             1.36
PE:                 7.206

read more


Vote-rigging just got harder says @Africa_Conf's @patrick_africa
Kenyan Economy


When the Appeal Court in Nairobi ruled on 23 June that the results of
the presidential vote announced at the constituency level should be
considered final, it changed the dynamics of next month's general
elections. Opposition activists are celebrating and electoral experts
says it has reduced the scope for vote rigging at the centre by
officials of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission
(IEBC).

read more


Closer and closer As it garners support, the opposition alliance insists that it cannot lose the election unless it is stolen @Africa_Conf
Kenyan Economy


There is a spring in the step of the opposition National Super
Alliance (Nasa) just over four weeks before the general elections.
Much of Kenya's political class concedes that the polls are looking
far closer than they did six months ago; many are bracing themselves
for fierce battles in the Rift Valley and at the Coast (see Map
below).

After the chaos and confusion of its early days, Nasa is now running
an energetic and determined campaign based on using three main
tactics: personality, ethnicity and blaming the governing Jubilee
alliance for high food prices and corruption. That has paid off, say
the opinion surveys, despite all the caveats that accompany polling
data (AC Vol 58 No 13, Opinion polls in question). Nasa's gains owe
much to the new-found unity of its five principals: Raila Amolo
Odinga, Moses Simiyu Wetangula, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Wycliffe
Musalia Mudavadi and Isaac Kiprono Ruto. The message of unity at the
top of the Alliance – something quite rare in opposition formations –
has energised three of their respective ethnic bastions: Luo for
Raila, Luhya for Mudavadi and Wetangula, and Kamba for Kalonzo. Ruto's
influence among his Kipsigis branch of the Kalenjin people is so far
limited.

Nasa reckons it has locked in the Coast constituencies. According to
its policy think tank, led by economist David Ndii and University of
Nairobi politics lecturer Adams Oloo, these provinces (Nyanza,
Western, Eastern, Coast and part of the Rift Valley) could give Nasa
ten million of the 19.6 mn. votes at stake (AC Vol 58 No 10, Uhuru
spends, Raila promises). 'Ten million Strong!' is now a popular slogan
at Nasa rallies.

The underlying message from Raila's core constituency among the Luo is
that he was cheated of victory in the 2007 and 2013 general elections
but this time, people will take to the streets, come what may, should
they consider the presidential poll to be rigged. Raila has repeatedly
accused Jubilee of planning to rig the election, most recently in the
award of a tender to print the ballots to Al Ghurair Printing and
Publishing Company, from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, a firm he claims
has intimate connections with the Kenyatta family (AC Vol 58 No 6,
Poll calendar under pressure & Vol 58 No 9, Motorcade, treason and
plot).

Alarmingly, the opposition campaign is also taking an anti-Kikuyu
tone. A 23 June post on the website of the Nasa-supporting daily Star
regarding the Al Ghurair contract, for instance, states that: 'All the
pain and suffering Kenyans are enduring has been put to them by
Kikuyus… This is why Kenyans cannot accept another Kikuyu president'.

Ndii (a Kikuyu) wrote in his Daily Nation column that 'Kikuyu culture
has been bastardised… by avarice and debauchery'. More generally,
ethnic nationalism on all sides is becoming dangerously reminiscent of
the run-up to the 2007 elections, in which over 1,200 people lost
their lives and around a third of a million people were chased from
their homes. The memory of those horrors dampened down tension in the
lead up to the 2013 elections but not this time.

There is, however, an electoral cost to blatantly ethnic
electioneering because the winning candidate has to win support from a
broad range of the country's ethnic groups. In addition to obtaining
over 50% of the popular vote, a successful presidential candidate must
obtain 25% of the vote in half of Kenya's 47 counties. This time,
Jubilee's strategy is to defeat Nasa in enough swing counties so that
its candidate fails to meet the 25% rule. The strategy is concentrated
in the low-population pastoral counties. In Samburu, where herdsmen
have invaded European-owned ranches and conservancies in nearby
Laikipia, Jubilee has promised to address the shortage of pasture in
the dry months to counter Raila's growing popularity.

In a well-publicised interview with The Times of London, Raila
suggested that some of these ranches should be taken over for the
benefit of the pastoralists.  Ruto and Uhuru have spent much time
campaigning in the Somali-populated counties of Garissa, Wajir and
Mandera, and the adjoining Marsabit County, inhabited mostly by Boran,
Rendille and Gabra people, who are also livestock herders. In 2013,
Marsabit split its vote almost equally between Uhuru and Raila.
Neighbouring Isiolo, where Raila managed some 30% of the vote in 2013,
is another Jubilee target.

In the agricultural counties, the Kisii ethnic group is being
energetically wooed in Kisii and Nyamira counties, where Raila
obtained two-thirds of the vote in 2013. President Uhuru Kenyatta is
personally popular among the Kisii but not so his Deputy President,
William Ruto, whose presence brings memories of the 2008 post-election
violence in which many Kisii in the Rift Valley suffered at the hands
of Ruto's Kalenjin supporters.

In the Coast Province, Jubilee has been active in Lamu, where Uhuru
won 40% of the vote in 2013, and in Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale. In the
two Kisii counties and at the Coast, Jubilee has an uphill struggle as
Raila is seen as a defender of the country's small ethnic minorities.
All these calculations and the scare caused by Nasa's rise have forced
Uhuru and William Ruto to launch one of the most energetic Kenyan
election campaigns in recent memory, crossing all parts of the
country, with the exception so far of Raila's Luo counties.

On the hustings, Jubilee presents itself as a party of development in
action, the builder of roads, schools and the Standard Gauge Railway
between Mombasa and Nairobi. In June alone, Uhuru and Ruto addressed
over 250 campaign rallies in 21 counties, including Nairobi, which
they want to wrestle from Nasa. Some of the rallies were in their
respective bailiwicks of the Mount Kenya region (Kikuyu, Embu and
Meru) and the Rift Valley. Others have been held in swing counties and
in opposition heartlands. Exploiting incumbency, they have announced
new development projects, land titles and funds that would strain an
already over-stretched budget.

On 30 June, Uhuru was in Kalonzo Musyoka's home county of Kitui, where
he addressed six rallies and launched the construction of a dam
costing 1.4 billion Kenya shillings (US$13.5 million), along with two
major roads. Two days previously, he had presided over the
distribution of no fewer than 7,137 land titles in Tharaka-Nithi
County, an arid area that tends to vote with the Kikuyu and Meru, and
which Nasa has set its sights on. On 29 June, he presided over an
agreement with British brewer Diageo to build a Ksh.15 billion brewery
in Raila's hometown of Kisumu.

Some projects are being completed in a rush. A Chinese-built bridge
over the Nzoia River in Busia collapsed weeks after Uhuru had opened
it. Undeterred, he will be launching an even bigger bridge linking the
mainland in Homa Bay (a Raila stronghold) to Rusinga Island in Lake
Victoria.

Kenyatta and Ruto repeatedly berate Nasa as whiners and non-performers
who will add nothing new to Kenya, in contrast to what they call
Jubilee's sterling development record.

By the time Kenyans went to vote in December 2007, opposition
supporters were convinced that they could not lose the elections
unless the results were fixed. That sentiment is already widely held
as concern grows about the capacity of the Independent Electoral and
Boundaries Commission to produce a credible result, having failed to
do so in both 2007 and 2013 (AC Vol 54 No 6, Credibility of the IEBC
under fire).

There are parallels with Ghana's elections last December (AC Vol 57 No
25, A turning point vote for the Black Star). There, an incumbent
party ran on its record of building roads and power stations while
many people struggled with rising prices and joblessness. The
opposition ran a barnstorming campaign focusing on that economic
discontent but it also had in place a comprehensive and
high-technology plan to monitor the vote from the polling station
upwards. Most importantly, it had a secure system to report results
via its own intranet, as well as having reliable and trained party
agents at each polling station. All that was backed up by robust civil
society organisations.

Nasa officials claim they have taken 'extensive measures' to protect
their vote but will not elaborate. Unlike Ghana, there are areas in
Kenya – strongholds of either government or opposition – where it
could prove extremely difficult to get an independent and accurate
tally of the vote. Without that, there is a serious prospect of
trouble.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto are taking
the competition right into the heartland of the opposition National
Super Alliance. In the Luhya counties of Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega and
Vihiga, where Nasa leader Raila Odinga won about half the votes in
2013, the governing Jubilee alliance's intention is to cut his support
to beef up its overall numbers.  Jubilee has also campaigned hard in
Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka's Kamba backyard, as well as in Kajiado and
Narok counties (both Maasai), which split their votes equally between
Raila and Uhuru in 2013. Narok will be strongly contested in a
campaign that could spin out of control: the local Maasai vote is
split between Nasa and Jubilee; and Isaac Ruto from neighbouring Bomet
has asked Kipsigis residents in Narok to back Raila rather than Uhuru
this time.

The Maasai counties are part of the Rift Valley, William Ruto's core
constituency. Despite pulling off a stunning victory for his party in
the Rift Valley in 2013, his influence has been waning. His relations
with other Kalenjin leaders are poor and his abrasive manner is losing
him support more widely.

Isaac Ruto (no relation), the top Kalenjin in Nasa, accuses the other
Ruto of demeaning him and undermining his political base in Bomet.
Isaac Ruto now leads a Kipsigis branch of the Kalenjin people against
Jubilee and William Ruto. Given the Deputy President's access to state
resources and his history of tough campaigning, it would be an
extremely tough fight to push out Jubilee in that area.

Relations have also cooled markedly between William Ruto and the
family of ex-President Daniel arap Moi. Moi's son Gideon Kipsielei
Towett Moi is now the Senator for Baringo and sees himself as the
natural rival to William Ruto. That dates back to the disputed 2008
elections, when Ruto and Moi Senior and Junior supported rival
presidential candidates. Gideon and his Kenya African National Union
are supporting Jubilee only because Moi père was prevailed upon by
Uhuru Kenyatta's mother, Mama Ngina Kenyatta, to convince KANU to back
Jubilee.

Conclusions

In a close contest, I thought that the response to the well-flagged
Food crisis was sub-optimal.

read more





Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.62% 2017
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

151.50 +0.15 +0.10%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +12.38% 2017
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,580.52 +11.72 +0.33%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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