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Thursday 07th of September 2017
 
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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Tsavo West, encompassing 3,000 square miles, was scenically stunning
Africa


Tsavo West, encompassing 3,000 square miles, was scenically stunning.
 Overlooking recent lava flows and volcanic cones, as well as the
crystal clear waters of Mzima Springs bubbling from the lava in the
midst of an arid land, the Chyulu range of hills were of recent
volcanic origin clothed in emergent forest.   Therefore,
notwithstanding the wildlife it harboured, about which little was
known other than it was known as the home range of mainly bull
elephants, the magnificent scenery alone warranted its National Park
status.   The first Headquarters was established on the slopes of a
low hill at Kamboyo within easy reach of railhead at Mtito Andei,
commanding breath-taking views of a spectacularly stunning landscape.

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The Mighty Dabassa herd - Tsavo
Africa


“And for just a moment I had reached the point of ecstasy that I
always wanted to reach, which was the complete step across
chronological time into timeless shadows, and wonderment in the
bleakness of the mortal realm, and the sensation of death kicking at
my heels to move on, with a phantom dogging its own heels, and myself
hurrying to a plank where all the angels dove off and flew into the
holy void of uncreated emptiness, the potent and inconceivable
radiancies shining in bright Mind Essence, innumerable lotuslands
falling open in the magic mothswarm of heaven. I could hear an
indescribable seething roar which wasn't in my ear but everywhere and
had nothing to do with sounds. I realized that I had died and been
reborn numberless times but just didn't remember especially because
the transitions from life to death and back to life are so ghostly
easy, a magical action for naught, like falling asleep and waking up
again a million times, the utter casualness and deep ignorance of it.
I realized it was only because of the stability of the intrinsic Mind
that these ripples of birth and death took place, like the action of
the wind on a sheet of pure, serene, mirror-like water. I felt sweet,
swinging bliss, like a big shot of heroin in the mainline vein; like a
gulp of wine late in the afternoon and it makes you shudder; my feet
tingled. I thought I was going to die the very next moment. But I
didn't die...”  Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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Trachilos footprint indicates human ancestors were in Crete six million years ago. @newsweek
Africa


The period corresponds to a geological time interval known as the
Miocene. The footprints are small tracks made by someone walking
upright on two legs—there are 29 of them in total. They range in size
from 94mm to 223mm, and have a shape and form very similar to human
tracks. Non-human ape footprints look very different; the foot is
shaped more like a human hand, with the big toe attached low on the
side of the sole and sticking out sideways.

The “cradle of humanity” has long been thought to lie in Africa, with
most researchers suggesting that Ethiopia was where the human lineage
originated. The earliest known body fossils that are accepted as
hominins (members of the human lineage) by most researchers are
Sahelanthropus tchadensis from Chad (about seven million years old),
Orrorin tugenensis from Kenya (about six million years old) and
Ardipithecus kadabba from Ethiopia (about 5.8-5.2 million years old).

The oldest known footprints, however, were found at Laetoli in
Tanzania and come from the next geological time interval, the
Pliocene. These are some 3.66 million years old and even more
human-like than those of Trachilos. The second oldest tracks are those
at Ileret made by Homo erectus (1.5 million years old), and are little
different from the tracks that we ourselves might make today.

Conclusions

We study the last 5,000 Years of human history with such keenness but
its just a blip in a 6m year history

read more




Republicans are left reeling after deal between Trump and Democrats @NBCNews
Law & Politics


Republicans were left fuming at a deal struck Wednesday between
President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders that combines disaster
aid for Hurricane Harvey victims with measures to keep the government
open and extend the debt ceiling for three more months.

“The Pelosi-Schumer-Trump deal is bad,” said Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb.,
in a short, terse statement.

McConnell told reporters it was the president’s decision and that GOP
leadership will move forward with it.

“The President can speak for himself, but his feeling was that we
needed to come together to not create a picture of divisiveness at a
time of genuine national crisis and that was the rationale,” McConnell
told reporters.

Still, it was a stunning turn of events.

Wednesday morning began with Pelosi and Schumer issuing their demand
that the debt limit be increased for just three months as part of the
hurricane relief bill. Ryan called the idea “ridiculous and
disgraceful,” adding that Democrats “want to play politics with the
debt ceiling.”

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who was also present, argued in
favor of a longer-term debt limit extension, but the president cut him
off and sided with the Democrats, multiple sources with knowledge of
the meeting said.

In an unexpected turn of events, Ivanka Trump, the president's
daughter and adviser, came into the room to say hello toward the end
of the meeting, which derailed the conversation and left the
Republicans visibly annoyed, a Democratic aide briefed on the meeting
said.

“We are literally funding this government on 90-day notes. That is not
the way to fund the largest, most relevant entity in the world,” said
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska.

“We had a very good meeting with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer,"
Trump said. "We agreed to a three-month extension on debt ceiling,
which they consider to be sacred — very important — always we’ll agree
on debt ceiling automatically because of the importance of it."

The deal, however, just pushes the threat of a government shutdown to December.

“Merry Christmas,” said Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

Conclusions

Brilliantly wrong foots his own Party.

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How the assault on Obama's legacy explains Trump @newsweek via RawStory
Law & Politics


In the 1880s, France saw the unlikely rise of Georges Boulanger, a
military man who built a political movement based entirely on
grievance. Boulangisme, as that movement came to be called, began with
a desire to exact revenge on Germany, which had recently defeated
France in the Franco-Prussian War. Rife with romantic nationalist
overtones, boulangisme “centered on the power and charisma of a single
leader who was seen as a kind of political savior for a nation led
astray by ‘foreign’ forces and ideology,’” as the political scientist
Ingrid L. Anderson wrote.

Although the boulangistes gained some power in Parliament, the Third
Republic survived the movement’s demagoguery. Boulanger killed himself
in 1891 in the appropriately dramatic fashion of the French, at the
grave of his mistress. His lasting contribution to Western society is
the word revanchism, which comes from the French for revenge. Général
Revanche was the nickname given to Boulanger as he mounted his
campaign against Germany and other forces supposedly corrosive to
France. Today, revanchism is used to describe a political philosophy
of redressing grievance and restoring greatness.

Republicans probably didn’t know it, but they appear to have elected
Général Revanche last November. Eight months into his presidency, it
is clear that President Donald J. Trump is not a conservative
Republican, nationalist strongman or centrist dealmaker. He is,
instead, a revanchist whose sole aim is to cancel every achievement of
President Obama while punishing Hillary Clinton, the woman who was
supposed to build on those achievements.

The remarkable thing about Trump is that he doesn't even try to hide
his revanchism to any significant degree.

In early August, BuzzFeed published a revealing report about European
leaders’ observations of Trump.

They...believe Trump’s foreign policy is chiefly driven by an
obsession with unravelling Barack Obama’s policies. “It’s his only
real position,” one European diplomat said. “He will ask: ‘Did Obama
approve this?’ And if the answer is affirmative, he will say: ‘We
don’t.’ He won’t even want to listen to the arguments or have a
debate. He is obsessed with Obama.”

 American people are not as ignorant or mean-spirited as Trump seems to believe.

 DACA belongs to Obama, so it must be tossed out of the White House
like trash left over by a previous tenant. Same with the Paris climate
accord, another major achievement of the previous administration.
Again, most Americans (70%) wanted to keep things as they were. Again,
revanchism won over reason.

Resentment propelled Trump to power. Ignoring this obvious fact, some
hoped for a mythical “presidential pivot,” when Trump would become a
sensible middle-of-the-road, let’s-pave-some-roads Republican, one who
ditched the “Lock her up” chant for a rendition of “Kumbaya.”

But without that chant, there is only a haunting silence, a lack of
leadership and ideas. The party of Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan
is now the party of Général Revanche.

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What influence do BRICS nations have? @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory @janedutton Video
Law & Politics


Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa may not seem to have
much in common, but they have built a common ground through the
international organisation known by their acronym, BRICS.
The coalition held its summit in China this week to discuss security,
governance and trade. Five other countries, including Egypt and Kenya,
also attended the meeting.
But what is the future of this group that does not get much attention
on the world stage?

Presenter: Jane Dutton

Guests:
Sreeram Chaulia - Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs
Einar Tangen - Adviser to the Chinese government
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist

read more



India army chief: we must prepare for simultaneous war with China and Pakistan
Law & Politics


India’s army chief said on Wednesday the country should be prepared
for a potential two-front war given China is flexing its muscles and
there is little hope for reconciliation with Pakistan.

General Bipin Rawat referred to a recent 10-week standoff with the
Chinese army in the Himalayas that ended last week. He said the
situation could gradually snowball into a larger conflict on India’s
northern border. Rawat said Pakistan on the western front could take
advantage of such a situation.

Xi Jinping says a dark shadow looms over the world after years of peace

The Press Trust of India news agency quoted Rawat’s remarks at a
seminar organised by the Center for Land Warfare Studies, a thinktank
in New Delhi.

“We have to be prepared. In our context, therefore, warfare lies
within the realm of reality,” Rawat said.

His comments came a day after India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi,
and China’s president, Xi Jinping, agreed on a “forward-looking”
approach to Sino-India ties, putting behind the Doklam standoff.

Conclusions


Narendra Modi capitulated on the Plateau.

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28-AUG-2017 :: It's as if Xi Jinping is goading Narendra Modi, who would be seriously ill-advised to take on the Chinaman in that remote plateau
Law & Politics


China is also in Narendra Modi’s face in the Doklam Plateau, which
sits at the tri-junction region of Bhutan, China and India. It’s as if
Xi Jinping is goading Narendra Modi, who would be seriously
ill-advised to take on the Chinaman in that remote plateau.

read more


Myanmar plays diplomatic card to avert U.N. censure over Rohingya Reuters
Law & Politics


Myanmar said on Wednesday it was negotiating with China and Russia to
ensure they block any U.N. Security Council censure over the violence
that has forced an exodus of nearly 150,000 Rohingya Muslims to
Bangladesh in less than two weeks.

Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi blamed “terrorists” for “a huge
iceberg of misinformation” on the strife in the northwestern state of
Rakhine but, in a statement, she made no mention of the Rohingya who
have fled.

read more






Bank of Canada Raises Benchmark Rate to 1%
International Trade


The Bank of Canada forged ahead with another interest rate hike to
remove “some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus in place,”
in a statement that also flagged multiple risks to the economy and
tilted towards a cautionary tone.

Policy makers raised their benchmark rate for a second time since
July, to 1 percent. At the same time, they cited concern about
continued excess capacity, subdued wage and price pressures, risks
associated with geopolitical risks and the Canadian dollar, along with
worries about the impact of rising interest rates on indebted
households.

“Future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined and will be
guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments as
they inform the outlook for inflation,” the Bank of Canada said in the
statement.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1948
Dollar Index 92.22
Japan Yen 109.03
Swiss Franc 0.9561
Pound 1.3045
Aussie 0.8004
India Rupee 64.037
South Korea Won 1132.66
Brazil Real 3.0990
Egypt Pound 17.64
South Africa Rand 12.8004

read more










Foreigners' Record Holdings of EMEA Debt Raise Risk of a Taper-Tantrum
Emerging Markets


Foreigners are holding a record amount of local-currency debt from
developing nations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, putting
markets there at risk of a sudden exodus if U.S. and euro-area
officials tighten monetary policy more than analysts expect.

Overseas investors now own 27.8 percent of the region’s bonds, led by
South Africa, the Czech Republic and Russia. The bet has paid off this
year, with government notes from EMEA up 15 percent in dollar terms,
beating the 9.2 percent average return for all emerging markets,
according to Bloomberg indexes.

read more





Togo cabinet passes draft bill on term limits amid protests
Africa


Togo’s cabinet has adopted a draft bill to modify the constitution and
reintroduce presidential term limits, the government said in a
statement on Wednesday as thousands of protesters gathered on the
streets of the capital Lome.

The West African country’s President Faure Gnassingbe has ruled since
his father died in 2005 after 38 years in power. The latter,
Gnassingbe Eyadema, passed a law in 1992 limiting the president to two
mandates but scrapped it ten years later.

“This bill to modify the constitution concerns specifically the
limitations of mandates and voting procedures,” said the government
statement, referring to article 59 of the constitution.

read more



Angola's ruling MPLA wins election with 61 percent of vote: electoral commission
Africa


Angola’s ruling MPLA party has won a general election by taking 61.07
percent of the vote, the electoral commission said on Wednesday,
making João Lourenço the next president of sub-Saharan Africa’s
third-largest economy.

He will replace Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who steps down after 38 years
at the helm but will continue as head of the People’s Movement for the
Liberation of Angola (MPLA).

The main opposition National Union for the Total Independence of
Angola (UNITA) took 26.67 percent, with the smaller opposition party
CASA-CE winning 9.44 percent.

“Mission accomplished,” Lourenço told supporters at his party’s
headquarters in Luanda.

The head of the African Union’s observation mission, Jose Maria Neves,
congratulated Angola on a poll he said served as a “reference for the
continent”.

read more


Continuity and Change in War and Conflict in Africa
Africa


Since the end of the Cold War, Africa has experienced a
disproportionately large number of armed conflicts. According to the
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), there have been an estimated 630
state-based and nonstate armed conflicts on the continent between 1990
and 2015.1 Explanations for this glut of armed conflicts in Africa
remain the subject of debates.2 Nevertheless, between the early 1990s
and the late 2000s, Africa underwent a period of significant progress
in reducing the number and intensity of armed conflicts.3
Since 2010, however, the continent has witnessed some disturbing
upward conflict trends. Specifically, there have been significant
reversals in the decline of state-based armed conflicts and deliberate
campaigns of violence against civilians; religious and environmental
factors have played increasingly significant roles in a wide range of
armed conflicts; there has been a dramatic increase in the levels of
popular protests across the continent; as well as an exponential rise
in the use of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and suicide
bombings. International efforts to respond to some of these
developments by deploying more robust and militarized forms of peace
operations and interventions have met with at best only limited
success.
This article focuses on the major patterns in armed conflict in Africa
since 2010. Although there are significant elements of continuity with
earlier periods, policymakers and analysts alike need to understand
and adapt to the ways in which the character of armed conflict on the
continent has evolved if they are to develop effective responses. To
address these issues the article proceeds in three parts.

read more


Congo Opposition Calls for Coalition to Force Kabila's Exit
Africa


The Democratic Republic of Congo’s main opposition leader said parties
should unite to force President Joseph Kabila to leave as plans to set
a new date for elections are delayed.

“Joseph Kabila is the sole obstacle on the way to the organization of
elections in our country,” Felix Tshisekedi, leader of the
Rassemblement coalition, told reporters Tuesday in the capital,
Kinshasa. “I launch an appeal to all anti-Kabila parties to mobilize
themselves together to obtain his departure.”

Kabila was supposed to step down at the end of his second term as
president in December, but the vote for his replacement has been
delayed, sparking protests. Under a political agreement struck Dec.
31, opposition parties accepted that he could remain in office if the
vote was held this year.

Efforts to implement the accord have stalled and opposition parties
are accusing Kabila of purposely delaying the vote to hold on to
power.

read more



South Africa's business confidence at lowest in over 30 years
Africa


South Africa’s business confidence index fell to its lowest in more
than three decades in August as merchandise import and export volumes
fell, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The business group said South Africa’s economic performance was
sub-optimal despite an positive global outlook, and improved business
confidence was needed to revitalise domestic growth.

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (SACCI) monthly
business confidence index (BCI) fell to 89.6 in August, the lowest
level since mid-1980s, from 95.3 in July.

“Lower merchandise import and export volumes mainly caused the sharp
monthly decline of the BCI in August 2017. Lower consumer inflation
and new vehicle sales made only moderate positive monthly
contributions,” SACCI said in a statement.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.53% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.8004

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6400

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria's @MBuhari said he would not seek re-election in 2019: minister

http://reut.rs/2gO1W0N

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +32.49% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +45.53% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Kenya's court confounds the coup-prone image of Africa @FT @davidpilling
Kenyan Economy


Last week, a man wearing red-white-and-black robes sat at a bench in a
small room in Nairobi and said a few words that reverberated around
the continent. If Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un had not been playing a
game of nuclear chicken, it might have reverberated around the world.

The man was David Maraga, the chief justice of Kenya, and the words he
spoke annulled the result of the just-concluded presidential election.
The poll will now have to be run again in October. His judgment was a
first of its kind in Africa and hardly common elsewhere. He declared
that August’s presidential election had been marred by “irregularities
and illegalities”, depriving Kenyans of their constitutional rights.
It was a stunning victory for what Mr Maraga called fidelity to the
constitution and the rule of law.

The majority decision of the six-member court — there were two
dissenting voices — sent a thunderous message about the sanctity of
elections and judicial independence. That message should resonate from
Washington to Pretoria and from Manila to the Democratic Republic of
Congo, where institutions are struggling to rein in leaders gone
rogue.

There has been much to admire in Kenya. The bravery of Mr Maraga was
matched by the equanimity of ordinary Kenyans, who reacted to his
decision with absolute calm. Supporters of Raila Odinga, the
petitioner and opposition candidate, celebrated a chance to compete
again. But even followers of Uhuru Kenyatta, the incumbent whose
second term was at least temporarily snatched, generally welcomed the
verdict as a victory for democratic integrity.

Mr Kenyatta was less magnanimous, calling members of the court “thugs”
and suggesting (ridiculously) that they had been paid by foreigners.
The president was so angry he almost seemed to slur his words. Yet his
incandescence aside, there was never any doubt he would accept the
court’s verdict. There was even less chance that he would call in the
army.

The world still regards Africa as a continent of coups. That view is
hopelessly out of date. In 1990, 12 African leaders owed their
position to a military putsch, with only six in charge as a result of
multi-party elections, according to the Brookings Institution. By
2016, 45 leaders had gone through a multi-party process — many,
admittedly, far from perfect — with none in sub-Saharan Africa having
gained power directly through a coup d’état.

Yet Kenya is the story of an institutional glass half-full. If the
supreme court dressed itself in glory, the electoral commission was
covered in a less fragrant substance. The court had to step in only
because the commission was unable to run a credible election.

Although voting itself was orderly and peaceful, the electronic
transmission of results was a shambles. Many polling stations were
unable to beam up data due to inadequate mobile coverage. Forms
bearing the results went missing and, when they turned up, were
sometimes without watermarks or serial numbers. Even before that,
faith had been shaken in the system when the commission’s man in
charge of IT was found murdered days before polling day. Rumours
spread that his fingertips had been removed to provide his assailants
with the means to access electoral servers.

It is immensely frustrating for the people of Africa — who show an
overwhelming support for democracy, according to opinion polls — that
it is so hard to count their votes. Much of this is deliberate.
Incumbents install systems (and people) they can control and, if
necessary, manipulate. The sanctity of elections depends every bit as
much on those running electoral commissions as it does on those
presiding over the courts. In Nigeria, it was the actions of Attahiru
Jega, electoral commission chair, who ensured the integrity of the
2015 election in which the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, lost.

It is a matter of urgency that countries design voting systems in
which people have faith. A properly monitored, paper-based system may
be better than a half-baked electronic one. One of Africa’s most
credible recent elections came in Gambia where people voted with
marbles and the tally was carried out under public scrutiny. In those
elections, voters booted out Yahya Jammeh, who had been in charge for
22 years.

The court verdict in Kenya is not without its dangers. The electoral
commission will not be able to get itself in credible shape in the 40
days available. Nor is it clear that either presidential candidate is
prepared to concede. Kenyans have been patient throughout the whole,
expensive, fiasco. They deserve better.

Conclusions

read more



04-SEP-2017 :: Supreme Court of Kenya's 4-2 decision to annul the election was an unprecedented move in Africa and the first time on the continent that a court ruled against the electoral victory of an incumbent.
Kenyan Economy


The Chief Justice David Maraga declared Kenyatta’s victory “invalid,
null and void” is only the fourth occasion world-wide when this has
happened (Ukraine, Maldives and Austria). The judges ordered a new
vote to be held within 60 days. Given the damning nature of the
verdict with respect to the IEBC ( e court ruled that it had “failed,
neglected or refused to conduct the presidential election in a manner
consistent with the dictates of the constitution”), its unclear to me
how the 60 day deadline is met.

read more


Kenyan Electoral Body Says Staff Refuse to Resign Despite Ruling
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan officials who mishandled last month’s presidential vote have
refused to resign, even as a new team was appointed to conduct a
rerun, an electoral commissioner said.

The Independent Electoral & Boundaries Commission on Tuesday appointed
six people to handle the Oct. 17 ballot after the Supreme Court ruled
that last month’s presidential election wasn’t conducted in accordance
with the constitution. It didn’t criticize any individuals in the
ruling and a written judgment detailing its decision will only be
released later this month.

“In a normal democracy, people would have introspected, they would
have opted to step aside,” IEBC commissioner Roselyn Akombe said
Wednesday by phone from the capital, Nairobi. “They have failed to do
that. They have refused.”

“In a situation where they have refused to step aside, the chairman
has no choice but to select a team that he has confidence in, that he
wants to work with,” Akombe said. “This is to make sure that those
things are not repeated. It’s rare to get a second chance to make it
right.”

In his ruling, Supreme Court Chief Justice David Maraga said
“irregularities and illegalities” had been committed by the electoral
body in the Aug. 8 vote. The court’s detailed written judgment is due
within 21 days of the ruling.

“It’s a game of musical chairs the commission is playing,” said Dismas
Mokua, an analyst at Nairobi-based risk advisory firm Trintari. “The
team managing the election must be beyond reproach and acceptable to
both parties. If not, we may end up with another election that will be
nullified.”

read more



Election petitions just piling up
Kenyan Economy


At least 17 governors are facing a major battle to retain their seats
after their opponents filed petitions challenging their victories in
the August 8 elections.

The new development comes as the Judiciary announced that by
Wednesday, 120 petitions had been filed in various courts across the
country challenging results in governor, MP, Senate and ward rep
races.

Conclusions

Predictable.

read more







ARM Cement share price data
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           16.35
Total Shares Issued:          495275000.00
Market Capitalization:        8,097,746,250
EPS:             -5.84
PE:                 -2.800

A mineral extraction and processing company which manufactures lime,
cement and other industrial fertilisers.

ARM Cement PLC H1 2017 results through 30th June 2017 vs. 30th June 2016
H1 Revenue 5.347487b vs. 6.670350b -19.832%
H1 [Loss]/ profit before tax [1.379980b] vs. [363.905m] -279.214%
H1 [Loss]/ profit after tax [1.413541b] vs. [266.782m] -429.849%
[Loss]/ earnings per share [3.30] vs. [1.10] -200.000%
No interim dividend
Total assets 49.363670b
Equity attributable to equity holders of parent company 26.381580b
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 113.403m vs.
100.220m +13.154%

read more




 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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