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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 10th of January 2017

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AFP/File | "Chariot" by Alberto Giacometti is displayed at Sotheby's Autumn evening sale of Impressionist & Modern Art November 4, 2014 in New York

French designer Hubert de Givenchy is selling 21 works by the Swiss artist
and decorator Diego Giacometti as well as a sculpture by his more
celebrated brother, the artist Alberto Giacometti, said auction house

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There is a road in the desert in Marsabit County where you are tempted to measure your speed in knots! Photo by @deenjeru

“Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road.” ―
Jack Kerouac, On the Road

“Soon it got dusk, a grapy dusk, a purple dusk over tangerine groves and
long melon fields; the sun the color of pressed grapes, slashed with
burgandy red, the fields the color of love and Spanish mysteries.” ― Jack
Kerouac, On the Road

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Will the populist wave wash away @NATO and the European Union?
Law & Politics

This is more than just a political and economic issue. If there is one
crucial lesson in the current discussions about Russia’s way of war—whether
we call it hybrid, non-linear, or asymmetric—it is that conflict in the
twenty-first century is just as much fought in the realms of politics,
morale, economics and governance, as on the battlefield. While NATO remains
the indispensable military alliance, the EU could play an invaluable role
in all those domains rightly outside NATO’s remit.

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05-DEC-2016 At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded.
Law & Politics

So much has happened in 2016, from the Brexit vote to President-elect
Trump, and it certainly feels like we have entered a new normal. One common
theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment, President Putin has
Fortress Europe surrounded.  The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist
that propelled Brexit, Le Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert
Wilders in the Netherlands, is Vladimir Putin.

In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo, and in
a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as well.

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo, who
is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:

 e specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks
in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”.

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at
Colorado Command:

“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”

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"We are dealing with a homicidal madness which misuses God's name in order to disseminate death in a play for domination & power" @Pontifex
Law & Politics

ROME - From the beginning, it was inevitable that history’s first pontiff
named “Francis”, for the great 12th and 13th century apostle of peace,
would see himself as a “peace pope.” On Monday, Pope Francis signaled the
press for peace will continue to be a top-shelf priority in 2017, pleading
for an end to the “homicidal madness” of terrorism and war.

In particular, Francis issued a challenge to religious leaders of all
faiths to reject, once and for all, the idea that killing in the name of
God can ever be justified.

Sadly, we are conscious that even today, religious experience, rather
than fostering openness to others, can be used at times as a pretext for
rejection, marginalization and violence,” Francis said.

Referring to terrorist attacks and other acts of violence that erupted
throughout 2016 in places such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Belgium, Egypt,
France, Germany, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, and even the United States,
Francis said, “We are dealing with a homicidal madness which misuses God’s
name in order to disseminate death, in a play for domination and power.”

“I appeal to all religious authorities to join in reaffirming
unequivocally that one can never kill in God’s name,” the pontiff said.

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They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker
Law & Politics

FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom. This land is ruled by
The House of Kim and its capital is Pyongyang. The first and ‘Eternal’
President was Kim Il-sung and his successor Kim Jong-il whose designated
successor is Kim Jung-un. They all have had tiny little hands like the
Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker.

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The Russians notified the United States about the flights using a special hotline between Russian forces in Syria and the American air war command at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar NYT
Law & Politics

WASHINGTON — Russian warplanes have carried out airstrikes to support
Turkey’s offensive in northern Syria against the Islamic State, an
important evolution in a budding Russian-Turkish partnership. The deepening
ties threaten to marginalize the United States in the struggle to shape
Syria’s ultimate fate.

The air missions, which took place for about a week near the strategically
important town of Al Bab, represent the Kremlin’s first use of its military
might to help the Turks in their fight against the militant group. The
Russians seized an opening to try to build a military relationship with
Turkey, a NATO member, as the United States has sought to keep the emphasis
on taking Raqqa, the Islamic State’s self-declared capital.

The Russian bombing is a remarkable turnabout from November 2015, when a
Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 attack plane that had
violated Turkey’s airspace.

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14-NOV-2016 "This is the deflagration of an epoch. It's the apocalypse of this information system" @beppe_grillo @Mov5Stelle
Law & Politics

“ This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its
position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed
insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.

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The Unraveling of Julian Assange @bv @elilake
Law & Politics

You almost have to feel sorry for Julian Assange. Shut in at the Ecuadorean
Embassy in London without access to sunlight, the founder of WikiLeaks is
reduced to self-parody these days


His response that Russia did not hand the Emails to @Wikileaks was a very
big Give-away. Of course Russia was never going to give anything to him
directly but they could give it to someone else to give it to him.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0606
Dollar Index 101.62
Japan Yen 115.53
Swiss Franc 1.0122
Pound 1.2141
Aussie 0.7370
India Rupee 68.025
South Korea Won 1196.31
Brazil Real 3.1966
Egypt Pound 18.3725
South Africa Rand 13.6182

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Pound Traders Sell on May as Prime Minister Lays Out Brexit Goal
World Currencies

“It looks almost certainly now like a hard Brexit, and the market doesn’t
like it,” Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit SpA in London,
said on Bloomberg Television.

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Over last 12 months...VIA David Ingles

Rubber 104%
Zinc +77%
Brent +64%
Tin +54%
Sugar +42%
Lead +30%
Copper +25%
Nickel +21%
Lumber 18%
Aluminum +16%

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Smoked salmon at Vineet Bhatia.Photographer: Matt Inwood @richardvines

Vineet Bhatia is a trailblazer for gourmet Indian cuisine in London,
picking up Michelin stars at Zaika and Rasoi Vineet Bhatia along the way.
He relaunched his Chelsea flagship Rasoi in October as Vineet Bhatia
London, and it looks like he has set his sights on a second star,
abandoning a la carte options in favor of a £105 tasting menu.

The focus is on inventive cooking with clean flavors and the kind of
beautiful presentation you might associate with restaurants in Tokyo and
Kyoto rather than London or Mumbai. It's a bold move. The trend in London
is generally toward a more-casual and less-expensive style of dining,
rather than pushing culinary boundaries. I wish him luck.

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Ethiopia needs to "consolidate gains" after the deadly unrest last year before it can lift a state of emergency that was imposed in October, the prime minister said on Monday.

"As far as the date of lifting the state of emergency is concerned, it
should be seen in the perspective that we have to consolidate the gains
that we have made so far," Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn told a news
conference, noting that the measure had helped restore "normalcy".

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.@TullowOilplc has agreed to transfer 21.57% of its 33.33% interests Uganda to @Total for $900 million

A Sale and Purchase Agreement with an effective date of 1 January 2017 has
been signed in which Tullow has agreed to transfer 21.57% of its 33.33%
interests in Exploration Areas 1, 1A, 2 and 3A in Uganda to Total for a
total consideration of $900 million. This agreement will allow Tullow to
retain an 11.76% interest in the upstream and pipeline, which would reduce
to 10% when the Government of Uganda formally exercises its right to

This agreement is based on the transfer of licence interests from Tullow to
Total in exchange for cash and deferred consideration to be paid as and
when the Lake Albert Development Project reaches a series of key milestones
and represents a reimbursement by Total of a portion of Tullow’s past
exploration and development cost. The total consideration for the
transaction is structured as follows:

$200 million in cash consisting of $100 million on completion of the
transaction and $50 million at both Final Investment Decision and First Oil.
$700 million in deferred consideration which will be used by Tullow to fund
the company’s share of the costs of the upstream development project and
the associated export pipeline project.

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China willing to expand cooperation with Zimbabwe: Xi tells Mugabe

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) talks with his Zimbabwean counterpart,
Robert Gabriel Mugabe, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, in Beijing, on
Monday, January 9, 2017. [Photo: Xinhua]

President Xi Jinping said on Monday that China is willing to encourage
capable companies to invest in Zimbabwe and expand mutually beneficial

Xi made the remarks when meeting with his Zimbabwean counterpart, Robert
Gabriel Mugabe, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

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In Zimbabwe, a First Lady Exerts Her Power NYT

MASVINGO, Zimbabwe — The first lady of Zimbabwe’s display of power was
unspoken, though clear, during the governing party’s annual congress, as
she focused her speech on new party regalia featuring a teacup-shaped image
of her country.

“We all drink from the teacup,” Grace Mugabe, the first lady, said,
explaining that she had designed the regalia herself.

Not surprisingly, the next morning in Masvingo, the small town in southern
Zimbabwe where the congress of the Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front, President Robert Mugabe’s party, was held recently,
nearly all officials wore clothes adorned with Ms. Mugabe’s teacup design.

She is, to many people, the real power behind the throne, vowing to keep
her husband in office until his death while she consolidates her support.
She told supporters recently that she was “already the president,” planning
and doing everything with her husband.

The signs of Ms. Mugabe’s growing stature are unmistakable. On stage at the
party congress, she sat closest to her husband, who, a couple of months shy
of 93 years old, dozed through most speeches. Party leaders invariably
praised her also — “Forward with President Mugabe! Forward with Dr. Amai
Grace Mugabe!” — before others officially higher in the party hierarchy. A
choir that usually sings the president’s praises composed a song for the
first lady for the first time.1

After her husband dies, will she hop on a plane for Dubai or elsewhere in
Asia, where she and her children have established homes? The Mugabes are
thought to have more than $1 billion invested outside Zimbabwe, according
to an American diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.

In an interview on his 92nd birthday, Mr. Mugabe said he had given his wife
his approval to enter politics.

“It has proved to be rough waters,” he said, “but she can cope with it. She
is a rough swimmer.”



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Devaluation Looms for Nigeria Even as Forwards Ease on Oil

The Nigerian naira’s recovery in the forwards market may be deceptive. The
currency is destined to weaken, however long policy makers hold out.

Six-month contracts declined to their lowest level since September last
week as crude oil, Nigeria’s top export, advanced about 20 percent after
OPEC agreed a production cut in November. A drop in forwards would
typically be a sign of growing confidence in a nation’s economy and
currency, but not this time. Even as oil prices advance, Standard Chartered
Plc and London-based Duet Asset Management say the nation needs to devalue
the naira and loosen capital controls.

With dollars becoming scarcer and the economy on the brink of its first
full-year recession since 1991, Nigerian businesses are being forced into
the black market. There, each dollar costs 493 naira, almost 60 percent
more than the official rate.

Forward contracts maturing in one month closed at 318.5 per dollar on
Friday, diminishing their spread over the official rate of 315.78 to the
lowest since July. Six-month contracts fell 0.2 percent to 361.54 as of
7:30 a.m. in London.

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.10% 2016

@RailaOdinga & @HassanAliJoho in Ghana.I think Ghanaians needs to
apologize to Kenya's Former Prime Minister for lack of protocol. @peterserem


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.60% 2016


Investors are selling #Mozambique's #Eurobond today after JPMorgan said
it would probably default this month. @TheTerminal ‏@PaulWallace123


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Growth, Trump, and debt in Africa: Key economic trends to watch in 2017 @raziakkhan

In 2016, real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have been
the weakest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. This was largely
because of the poor performance in its two largest economies, South Africa
and Nigeria, which together make up about half of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP.

Although oil and mining economies were hurt by the commodity slowdown, much
of East Africa as well as oil-importing Francophone economies such as Côte
d’Ivoire and Senegal managed robust rates of growth of above 6%. The
slowdown in Africa was not uniform.

But what are the prospects for African economies in 2017?

Hopes for faster growth rest on prospects in the region’s two largest

In South Africa, recovery after a severe drought in 2016 and improved
electricity generation should provide a modest lift. But private sector
confidence remains weak, and rising debt levels mean that South Africa
remains at risk of losing its investment grade credit rating. With little
room to scale up public investment, a tepid recovery is likely, at best.

In Nigeria, following a probable contraction of GDP in 2016, it will not
take much to drive growth to positive levels in 2017. But higher oil prices
alone – we forecast an average of $66/barrel in 2017 – are no panacea. Oil
output and Nigeria’s ability to curb militancy in the Niger Delta will also

Even more important are prospects in the non-oil economy, which makes up
92% of Nigeria’s GDP. Activity in the non-oil sector has been sluggish,
hampered by poor policy choices, in particular a poorly functioning foreign
exchange market. Despite several flawed attempts at currency flexibility,
Nigeria has never fully embraced a liberalised foreign exchange regime. The
authorities are uncomfortable with allowing demand and supply to determine
the value of the Nigerian naira. Because Nigeria has low levels of
accumulated oil savings and its foreign exchange reserves have come under
pressure, it has had to resort to curbing import demand in order to
maintain a steady foreign exchange rate. However, squeezing import demand
has meant maintaining a severe squeeze on the real economy. Growth
prospects will depend on how quickly unsustainable foreign exchange
bottlenecks are resolved.

The US dollar has strengthened against other currencies, especially those
of emerging markets, which are seen as especially vulnerable to a potential
trade war.

But if trade tensions escalate, potentially weakening confidence in
emerging market prospects, sub-Saharan African economies are likely to be
affected. Over the last two decades, Africa’s trade with emerging markets
has grown rapidly, at the expense of its trade with more developed partners.

Plans for an African Tripartite Free-Trade Area (TFTA) − encompassing 26
economies from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA),
East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community
(SADC) − should get underway in 2017. The challenge will be how to make the
new trade partnership meaningful. Poor infrastructure links and weak trade
complementarities hampered earlier trade initiatives. However, faced with
the threat of new disruptions to existing trade patterns and supply-chain
integration, it is even more important that African economies start trading
more among themselves.

For African governments, borrowing internationally to invest in
infrastructure is likely to become more expensive. They will have to do
more to reassure lenders that they can repay existing debt. Those countries
that are able to boost confidence by signing up for IMF and World Bank
reforms will likely be rewarded with access to cheaper financing. Those
that fail to adopt reforms could find their access to international capital
markets more constrained.

Populist policies have also played a role in weakening the performance of
the financial sector. In Kenya, the full impact of the adoption of loan
rate caps and regulated loan-deposit spreads, introduced in 2016, will only
be seen in 2017 or beyond.

The good news is that average regional growth should recover in 2017. But
greater reform and deeper debate on the domestic policy choices that have
constrained growth are required for more meaningful transformation.

Razia Khan is Regional Head of Economics, Africa, at Standard Chartered

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09-JAN-2017 :: The Shilling @TheStarkenya
Kenyan Economy

So the Shilling has fallen -1.17% versus the Dollar since the start of 2017
and -2.167% since November 8th. I cite November 8th because that was when
Donald J. Trump was elected and his election was the starting Pistol for a
sharp ''Trump'' rally.

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -3.36% 2017
Kenyan Economy

The Bear Run continued at the Securities Exchange with the Nairobi All
Share falling -0.69% to close at a 28 month Low of 128.86. The Nairobi All
Share is -3.35% in 2016

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Toyota Tsusho has taken full control of motor vehicle dealers DT Dobie and CICA Motors after buying all the shares in their parent company CFAO Group.
Kenyan Economy

The multinational in December 2012 acquired a 97.81 per cent stake in CFAO
for €2.2 billion (Sh243.7 billion) and last month bought the remaining
shares for €50.5 million (Sh5.4 billion), squeezing out minority
shareholders in the trading company.

“CFAO will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Toyota Tsusho and will no
longer be listed on the Euronext Paris stock exchange,” Toyota said in a

The buyout of DT Dobie and CICA adds to its full ownership of Toyota Kenya,
with the multinational now controlling a total market share of 24.5 per
cent in Kenya’s new vehicle market.

Full acquisition of DT Dobie and CICA had raised concerns that the local
subsidiaries could be merged to gain unfair advantage including through
cross-selling of a wide variety of vehicles.

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N.S.E Today

Tullow Oil PLC announced that it has agreed to transfer 21.57% of its
33.33% interests in Uganda to @Total for $900 million.
I think that will be seen as a sharp piece of business by Aidan Heavey.
StanBic Kenya issued their 2017 Economic Outlook this morning and pronounced
''In 2017, the GDP is expected to expand by only 5.4% instead of the
forecasted 5.8%''
Bloomberg carried a report by Felix Njini dated 9 January 2017
headlined ''Kenyan Central Bank Said to Warn Traders Over Shilling
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to
meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to
be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue.
Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments
the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said.
Central bank officials blame speculators for the slide in the currency
of East Africa’s largest economy, and told bankers to let the shilling
be guided by market fundamentals, the people said.
The central bank’s stance is that the more people comment on the
currency’s movements, the steeper its decline, they said
Kenya’s shilling has weakened every trading day since Dec. 23,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
I agree with the Central Bank and said this over the week-end.
''The Kenya Shilling closed out the week trading around the 103.70
Level and that makes a -1.17 per cent slide versus the Dollar since
the start of the year.  That slide created a flurry of media demand
for comment and it never ceases to amaze me how relatively small moves
in the Shilling create such an outsize hullabaloo.
So the Shilling has fallen -1.17% versus the Dollar since the start of
2017 and -2.167% since November 8. I cite November 8th because that
was when Donald J. Trump was elected US president and his election was
the starting pistol for a sharp ‘’Trump’’ rally''

Matina Stevis The Africa correspondent for the Wall Street Journal tweeted

In view of @CBKKenya policy & unchanged fundamentals of #kenya
economy, it's hard to explain this fluctuation in KES unseen in over a
Interesting comments from the Kenyan central bank @CBKKenya which does
not suffer fools lightly & has invested heavily in supporting the KES
One wonders if persistent rumours the KES is being talked down so
political ppl can bring in their USD at high rate for election are

The Shilling was last at 103.90.
The Nairobi All Share accelerated -1.272% lower to close at 127.22 a
38 month Low. The All Share is -4.589% in 2017
The Nairobi NSE20 Index retreated -1.08% to close at 3,083.68 which is
a 5 Year Low.
Equity Turnover was 422.485m and most of the business was transacted
in Safaricom and EABL.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Uchumi rebounded +7.8125% but needs to hurdle 4.00 to get going.

Kenya Airways announced today that they were to retrench 38 more
workers. Kenya Airways eased 5 cents to close at 5.65.

Safaricom retreated -1.62% to close at 18.20 and traded 14.399m shares
worth 262.675m. Safaricom is -4.96% in 2017 and this is a 4 month
closing Low. Safaricom is very oversold at these Levels and has been
caught up in the general down-draft.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Group slid -2.65% to close at 27.50. Equity is -8.333% in 2017.
Bank Stocks are following on from a very poor 2016.

Centum traded 3rd at the Exchange and eased back -1.97% to close at
37.25 and traded 344,000 shares. Centum is one of the few shares that
is in positive territory this year. Centum is +0.67% in 2017.

Of course BRITAM remains +8.5% in 2017 notwithstanding todays -0.93%
move and closed at 10.85. BRITAM announced an IFC investment at a
substantial Premium at the start of the Year,

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL eased -0.44% to close at 224.00 and traded 512,700 shares. EABL
is -8.196% in 2017 and is over-extended to the down-side.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2017

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