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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 11th of January 2017

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Leopard Love

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Londolozi @londolozi An incredible sighting of mating leopards in the open

Love. Of course, love. Flames for a year, ashes for thirty. Giuseppe
Tomasi di Lampedusa

If we want everything to remain as it is, it will be necessary for
everything to change.Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

Nowhere has truth such a short life as in Sicily; a fact has scarcely
happened five minutes before its genuine kernel has vanished, been
camouflaged, embellished, disfigured, squashed, annihilated by
imagination and self interest; shame, fear, generosity, malice,
opportunism, charity, all the passions, good as well as evil, fling
themselves onto the fact and tear it to pieces; very soon it has
vanished altogether. Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

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A Leopard in a Tree Samburu

“As I ate the oysters with their strong taste of the sea and their
faint metallic taste that the cold white wine washed away, leaving
only the sea taste and the succulent texture, and as I drank their
cold liquid from each shell and washed it down with the crisp taste of
the wine, I lost the empty feeling and began to be happy and to make
plans.” Ernest Hemingway, A Moveable Feast

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These Reports Allege Trump Has Deep Ties To Russia via @kenbensinger BUZZFEED
Law & Politics

A dossier making explosive — but unverified — allegations that the
Russian government has been “cultivating, supporting and assisting”
President-elect Donald Trump for years and gained compromising
information about him has been circulating among elected officials,
intelligence agents, and journalists for weeks.
The dossier, which is a collection of memos written over a period of
months, includes specific, unverified, and potentially unverifiable
allegations of contact between Trump aides and Russian operatives, and
graphic claims of sexual acts documented by the Russians. BuzzFeed
News reporters in the US and Europe have been investigating various
alleged facts in the dossier but have not verified or falsified them.
CNN reported Tuesday that a two-page synopsis of the report was given
to President Obama and Trump.

Now BuzzFeed News is publishing the full document so that Americans
can make up their own minds about allegations about the
president-elect that have circulated at the highest levels of the US

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Here comes President @realDonaldTrump
Law & Politics

“This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its
position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed
insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.

Returning to President-elect Trump who deployed linguistic warfare
with devastating effect.  e names he gave his opponents — Crooked
Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low- energy’ Jeb — were

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Taiwan Scrambles Jets, Navy as China Aircraft Carrier Enters Taiwan Strait VOA
Law & Politics

Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships on Wednesday as a group of
Chinese warships led by China's sole aircraft carrier sailed north
through the Taiwan Strait,the latest sign of heightened tensions
between Beijing and the self-ruled Taiwan.

The Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier, returning from exercises
in the South China Sea, was not trespassing in Taiwan's territorial
waters but entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the
southwest, Taiwan's defense
ministry said.

As a result Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships to “surveil and
control” the passage of the Chinese ships through the narrow body of
water separating Taiwan and China.

“We have full grasp of its movements,” Taiwan defense ministry
spokesman Chen Chung-chi said.

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Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress #gt2035 @ODNI_NIC
Law & Politics

Events unfold in complex ways for which our brains are not naturally
wired. Economic, political, social, technological, and cultural forces
collide in dizzying ways, so we can be led to confuse recent, dramatic
events with the more important ones. It is tempting, and usually fair,
to assume people act “rationally,” but leaders, groups, mobs, and
masses can behave very differently—and unexpectedly—under similar

The next five years will see rising tensions within and between
countries. Global growth will slow, just as increasingly complex
global challenges impend. An ever-widening range of states,
organizations, and empowered individuals will shape geopolitics. For
better and worse, the emerging global landscape is drawing to a close
an era of American dominance following the Cold War. So, too, perhaps
is the rules-based international order that emerged after World War
II. It will be much harder to cooperate internationally and govern in
ways publics expect. Veto players will threaten to block collaboration
at every turn, while information “echo chambers” will reinforce
countless competing realities, undermining shared understandings of
world events.

Meanwhile, states remain highly relevant. China and Russia will be
emboldened, while regional aggressors and nonstate actors will see
openings to pursue their interests. Uncertainty about the United
States, an inward-looking West, and erosion of norms for conflict
prevention and human rights will encourage China and Russia to check
US influence. In doing so, their “gray zone” aggression and diverse
forms of disruption will stay below the threshold of hot war but bring
profound risks of miscalculation.

Migrant flows are greater now than in the past 70 years, raising the
specter of drained welfare coffers and increased competition for jobs,
and reinforcing nativist, anti-elite impulses.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0549
Dollar Index 102.13
Japan Yen 115.96
Swiss Franc 1.0175
Pound 1.2156
Aussie 0.7380
India Rupee 68.255
South Korea Won 1192.75
Brazil Real 3.1956
Egypt Pound 18.7235
South Africa Rand 13.7679

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Ugandan leader makes son his adviser, critics see succession plan Reuters

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni has appointed his son as his senior
adviser, officials said on Tuesday, a move analysts said was part of a
plan to groom him to take over the top job.

The president's son, Major General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, was moved from
his position at the head of the army's special forces, the military
said, in what it called a normal change in command.

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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7679

Annual consumer price inflation in Egypt's cities soared to a second
straight eight-year high in December, hitting 23.3 percent on the back
of the government's decision to float the pound, effectively halving
its value.

Core inflation also jumped to 25.86 percent in the urban areas, the
official CAPMAS statistics agency said on Tuesday.

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Nigeria's Jonathan named in Italian 'kickback' probe @AFP

Italian prosecutors have alleged that Nigeria's former president
Goodluck Jonathan and his oil minister received kickbacks as part of a
$1.3 billion deal involving oil giants ENI and Shell.

Court documents filed late last month in the city of Milan and seen by
AFP outline a case against 11 people, including senior executives from
the two oil majors and the companies themselves.

Jonathan, who left office in May 2015, and Diezani Alison-Madueke, his
long-time petroleum minister who was also the first woman president of
OPEC, do not feature on the list.

But they are alleged to have played a central role in the deal, which
saw ENI and Shell make a $1.3 billion payment in 2011 for an offshore
oil block in Nigeria.

No formal charges have been brought and the parties usually have 20
days to respond to the conclusion of the preliminary investigation
report before any formal prosecution.

ENI chief executive Claudio Descalzi and his predecessor Paolo Scaroni
met Jonathan "in person" to thrash out the deal, which also involved
former British intelligence agents working as advisors for Shell, it
was alleged.

Prosecutors allege ENI and Shell executives worked with Nigerian
businessman Dan Etete, who was oil minister under the military ruler
Sani Abacha from 1995 to 1998.

Etete's company Malabu was the "fraudulent holder" of the OPL 245
block, according to the court documents.

After talks in Milan and Abuja, the block was bought illegally by the
oil majors in contravention of domestic laws, "without competitive
tendering" and with "full, unconditional exemption from all national
taxes", prosecutors said.

A total of $801.5 million was allegedly transferred to Etete's Malabu
accounts, of which $466 million was converted into cash in Nigeria and
used for remunerating government officials, including Jonathan and
Alison-Madueke, prosecutors said.

A further $54 million was withdrawn by Abubakar Aliyu, whom
prosecutors describe as an "agent" of Jonathan.

The beneficiaries of the money went on a shopping spree buying
"property, aeroplanes, armoured cars," prosecutors added.

- 'No basis' for prosecution -

ENI and Royal Dutch Shell have both denied wrongdoing.

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Naira black market rate trading at a record BBG

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.97% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +1.07% [cautiously bullish]


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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.805
Kenyan Economy

'Go ahead and sack us,' Kenyan doctors tell government
#LipaKamaTender @dwnews


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -4.59% 2016


127.22 -1.64 -1.27%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -3.22% 2016


3,083.68 -33.72 -1.08%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The World Bank issued their flag-ship global outlook report for 2017.
They are expecting an Uptick in SSA GDP excluding South Africa from
1.8% in 2016 [a 20 Year Low] to 3.5% for FY 2017.
The World Bank is expecting a 6% expansion in 2017 in Kenya. Stanbic
Bank cut their Kenya forecast to 5.4% yesterday.
The Shilling was stable at 103.8 and a lot of the future direction
will depend on Oil which I think is headed lower, which will be
supportive for the Shilling.
Its been a Torrid start at the Exchange in 2017.
The efficient markets theory posits that markets are forward-looking -
well we have everything negative properly baked into the price now
The All Share could not staunch the bleeding and slumped a further
-1.14% to close at 125.76 levels last visited in September 2013.
The All Share is -5.68% in 2017.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index fell 36.00 points and closed at 3047.68 and is
edging ever closer to the 3,000 level.
Equity Turnover clocked 579.981m.


N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was the most actively traded share again and eased -1.1% to
close at 18.00 and traded 16.375m shares worth 294.9m. Safaricom has
retreated -6.00% in 2017. Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 18.94
and accelerated H1 PAT by +30.6%. This is now an opportunity to buy
fast-paced growth at a discount.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Re was actively traded and rallied +3.41% to close at 22.75 on
heavy volume action of 4.038m shares [0.57% of its issued shares]
worth 91.877m. Kenya Re trades on an undemanding PE of 4.46. Todays
trading volume was well above the volume daily moving average.
BRITAM corrected -4.14% lower to close at 10.40. BRITAM is +4% in 2017
having traded shares as high as +39% intra day last week.

The Banking Sector remains under sell-side pressure.
KCB Group eased -0.92% to close at 27.00 and traded 2.974m shares. KCB
is -6.08% in 2017.
Equity Group had 32 Sellers for every Buyer and closed -2.72% at 26.75
and traded 150,100 shares. Equity has slumped -10.83% since the start
of the year.
Standard Chartered remains an Outlier like it was in 2016 and
up-ticked +2.22% to close at 184.00 Demand outpaces Supply by a factor
of 4 to 1 which indicates good support for the price at these levels.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL eased a further -0.44% to close at 223.00 and traded 385,400
shares. EABL is down a whopping -8.606% in 2016 and EABL is badly
overcooked to the downside.

East African Portland Cement was high-ticked +3.23% to close at 24.00.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2017

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