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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 12th of January 2017

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Global Growth Edges Up to 2.7 Percent Despite Weak Investment @worldbank

Growth in advanced economies is expected to edge up to 1.8 percent in
2017, the World Bank’s January 2017 Global Economic Prospects report
said. Fiscal stimulus in major economies—particularly in the United
States—could generate faster domestic and global growth than
projected, although rising trade protection could have adverse
effects. Growth in emerging market and developing economies as a whole
should pick up to 4.2 percent this year from 3.4 percent in the year
just ended amid modestly rising commodity prices.

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The People's Bank of China (PBOC) revealed it was placing the country's major bitcoin trading platforms under close scrutiny

It is the first regulatory move China’s central bank has taken over
the virtual currency, since it defined bitcoin as a “commodity” rather
than a “currency” in 2013, when it ruled it out of its financial
regulatory coverage.

The bitcoin price plunged to 5,800 yuan in China, just minutes after
the announcement made on the PBOC’s official website, from an
intra-day high at 6,450 yuan.

Bitcoin surged to a record high of 8,995 yuan in China on January 5,
before plunging to 6,000 yuan later that day after many investors
complained they could not log on to Huobi or OKCoin, two of the
largest mainland exchanges.

Home Thoughts

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@realDonaldTrump in angry exchange with @CNN reporter after President-elect refuses question

It was the President-elect's first news conference in more than six months


The New Normal.

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Donald Trump Russia claims: CIA agents 'say there may be more than one tape of sexual nature'
Law & Politics

The CIA believes Russia may hold more than one recording of a sexual
nature involving Donald Trump, it has been reported.

The President-elect and the Kremlin have denied the explosive, if
unverified, allegations made in a dossier believed to have been
compiled by a former British spy that Russian intelligence agencies
have compromising material about Mr Trump.

A BBC reporter who made enquiries to the CIA about the allegations
said he received a message from the agency saying they had more than
one source for the claims, which they regarded as “credible”.

“There was supposedly more than one tape, not just video but audio,
more than one date, and not just in Moscow but in St Petersburg as
well,” said Paul Wood in a live broadcast from Washington.


What happens if the Tape arrives in the public domain?

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Could Trump Have Been Caught in a Classic "Honey Trap"?
Law & Politics

Again, maybe this whole honey trap scenario involving Trump is as
phony as every other fake news story on the Internet. When it comes to
sex scandals, it’s not hard to grab the public’s attention. Still,
given the clandestine community’s sordid history of mischief, and
their obsession with obtaining “leverage,” why on God’s earth would
they NOT do it if they had the means?

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Fake Intel Document: The Neocon's Declaration of War against Trump?
Law & Politics

First, and this is the really crucial part, there is more than enough
here to impeach Trump on numerous grounds both political and legal.
Let me repeat again – this is an attempt at removing Donald Trump from
the White House.  This is a political coup d’etat.

Second, this documents smears everybody involved: Trump himself, of
course, but also the evil Russians and their ugly Machiavellian
techniques.  Trump is thereby “confirmed” as a sexual pervert who
likes to hire prostitutes to urinate on him.  As for the Russians,
they are basically accused of trying to recruit the President of the
United States as an agent of their security services.  That would make
Trump a traitor, by the way.

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"I am certain many in the Saudi leadership have sleepless nights on Yemen," said Paul Sullivan
Law & Politics

“I am certain many in the Saudi leadership have sleepless nights on
Yemen,” said Paul Sullivan, an adjunct professor of security studies
at Georgetown University in Washington.

“The worst situations are those that drag on and have heavy costs, and
no clear solution or ending. War is hell, and Yemen is an especially
bad hell.”


Saudi Arabia is a Gulliver enmeshed in a Lilliputian Net.

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China can't have access to the South China Sea isles they built, Tillerson says BBG
Law & Politics

"We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the
island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also
not going to be allowed," he said when asked whether he would support
a more aggressive posture in the South China Sea. He compared China’s
actions to those of Russia in the Crimea.


Is Tillerson going to bare the Pivot's Fangs again

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14-NOV-2016 To triangulate China, the US needs Russia on its side and not on China's.
Law & Politics

As Trump has indicated China is the main adversary and its difficult
to understand why the US was seeking to send Vladimir into Xi
Jinping’s ready embrace. To triangulate China, the US needs Russia on
its side and not on China’s.

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A satellite image of the Fiery Cross Reef located in the South China Sea
Law & Politics

Fiery Cross is located in the western part of the Spratly Islands
group. Photographer: DigitalGlobe/ScapeWare3d via Getty Images

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0633
Dollar Index 101.07
Japan Yen 114.06
Swiss Franc 1.0087
Pound 1.2280
Aussie 0.7494
India Rupee 68.055
South Korea Won 1176.88
Brazil Real 3.1970
Egypt Pound 18.5365
South Africa Rand 13.6258

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The Tiny Gulf Country With a $335 Billion Global Empire
Emerging Markets

Qatar is regaining its appetite for deals. In the past two months
alone, the world’s richest country per capita invested in Turkey’s
biggest poultry producer, Russian oil giant Rosneft PJSC, and U.K. gas
company National Grid Plc.

The investments have been made through the Qatar Investment Authority,
created in 2005 to handle the country’s windfall from liquefied
natural gas sales, of which it is the world’s biggest exporter.

Since then, the country - with a population smaller than Houston - has
amassed $335 billion in assets around the globe, making its sovereign
wealth fund the 14th largest in the world, according to the Sovereign
Wealth Fund Institute.


Qatar’s Rosneft $11 billion deal with Glencore Plc in December builds
on the country’s growing Russian portfolio. Qatar agreed to buy 24.9
percent of the St. Petersburg airport in July and committed $2 billion
to the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund in 2014.

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23 MAY 16 :: Qatar Punching Beyond its Size @TheStarKenya
Emerging Markets

The ubiquity of al Jazeera (after a period when it was caught in
Donald Rumsfeld’s cross-hairs) gave the state outsize soft power
across the Middle East and beyond. Today, Qatar is a big player in the
region punching far beyond its absolute size (estimates are that there
are fewer than 300,000 Qatari citizens) both in terms of hard and soft
power. In a geopolitical context, Qatar played a big role in toppling
Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and its influence can be seen similarly in
the move to remove President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In foreign
policy terms, Qatar has packed a big punch beyond merely hosting the
US military at al Udeid air base.

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Brazil surprised markets with a larger-than-expected interest rate cut on Wednesday
Emerging Markets

In a unanimous vote, the central bank's nine-member monetary policy
committee, known as Copom, decided to cut its benchmark Selic rate
BRCBMP=ECI by 75 basis points to 13.00 percent after two straight cuts
of 25 basis-points each.

Frontier Markets

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The World Bank Economic Prospects Report

Sub-Saharan Africa:  Sub-Saharan African growth is expected to pick up
modestly to 2.9 percent in 2017 as the region continues to adjust to
lower commodity prices. Growth in South Africa and oil exporters is
expected to be weaker, while growth in economies that are not
natural-resource intensive should remain robust.  Growth in South
Africa is expected to edge up to a 1.1 percent pace this year. Nigeria
is forecast to rebound from recession and grow at a 1 percent pace.
Angola is projected to expand at a 1.2 percent pace.

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SSA starts at p.173 in this World Bank Report @worldbank @worldbankafrica

SSA excluding South Africa expected to grow at 3.5% FY17 versus 1.8% FY16
Angola 1.2% FY17 versus 0.4% FY16
DR Congo 4.7% FY17 versus 2.7% FY16
Ethiopia 8.9% FY17 8.4% FY16
Kenya 6.00% FY17 and 5.9% FY16
Rwanda 6.00% FY17 and FY16
Tanzania 7.1% FY17 and 6.9% FY16
Zimbabwe 3.8% FY17 and 0.4% FY16

Investment growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen from nearly 8
percent in 2010 to 0.3 percent in 2015, reflecting a severe
terms-of-trade deterioration and long-standing structural impediments,
including infrastructure bottlenecks and weak business environments.
Investment needs are sizable across a wide range of sectors. Policies
to address the region’s investment needs in infrastructure include
sustaining public investment, encouraging private sector participation
in infrastructure, and strengthening public financial management

Fiscal and current account balances have deteriorated across the
region over the past 5 years (World Bank 2015u). In 2014, 33 countries
registered fiscal deficits greater than 5 percent of GDP (up from 25
in 2007), while 15 countries had a current account deficit that
exceeded 5 percent of GDP (up from only 5 in 2007)

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Decriminalising the sex trade in Zimbabwe Economist

Police raids used to scare away competitors. “Only the brave remained
on the streets. Now it’s free-for-all,” says 25-year-old Sazini
Ngwenya from Bulawayo. She adds that without the police paying
attention there has been an increase in robberies and rape.

Faced with a slumping economy Zimbabweans are so desperate that, for
many, even cut-price sex work seems like the least-bad option. “With
no education, faced with the responsibility to fend for their siblings
and/or their own children, many girls and young women are being forced
to sell sex for survival,” laments Talent Jumo, a director of the
Katswe Sistahood, a charity. With no sign of an economic recovery,
many more girls could be forced onto the streets, she says.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.39% 2016 [Bullish Start to the Year]

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.6258


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.5365


.@BBGAfrica  #Nigeria closes #Taiwan office in capital, Abuja, #China says


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.82% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +1.98% 2017 [Bullish
about this index in 2017]


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Unveiling of the National Super Alliance at Bomas of Kenya on January 11, 2017
Kenyan Economy

Opposition leaders (from left) Nick Salat, Moses Wetang'ula, Raila
Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi during the unveiling of
the National Super Alliance at Bomas of Kenya on January 11, 2017.


They need to coalesce around a single Candidate who is not Raila
Odinga. It could even be a ''Blank sheet'' Candidate like Adama

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12-DEC-2016 The big picture point is in fact a demographic one
Kenyan Economy

Many commentators define the African population surge as a
‘’dividend’’ but what is clear is that if it is allowed a Free and
Fair vote its going be a Terminator for a whole number of regimes.  e
demographic bulge is now arriving at voting age.  is is that moment,
its importance cannot be gainsaid.

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Kenya to Raise $1.05 Billion Syndicated Loans to Fund Budget
Kenyan Economy

Kenya is raising at least $1.05 billion through syndicated loans,
including $250 million already secured from lenders led by PTA Bank,
as East Africa’s biggest economy seeks to plug a widening budget

PTA, an East African trade-finance bank based in Burundi, has already
disbursed $100 million, while a further $150 million will be received
“shortly,” Treasury Principal Secretary Kamau Thugge said in a
mobile-phone text message Wednesday. “We are also syndicating $800
million to international banks,” he said.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.85
Kenyan Economy

Kenyan shilling weakened 0.1 percent to 103.9 against the dollar by
2:28 p.m in Nairobi. The currency has fallen 1.4 percent this year,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -5.68% 2016 [September 2013 Lows]
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -4.35% 2017 [The index’s fall to the level
last seen on October 28, 2009]


NSE 20 Share Index on Wednesday slipped to 3,047 points- levels
last seen in September 2009 @kenyanwalstreet


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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US widens its lead over UK as top importer of Kenyan goods
Kenyan Economy

Kenya is a beneficiary of the preferential trade pact, Agoa, which
allows sub-Saharan African countries to export goods to America
Textiles and apparel account for about 80 per cent of Kenya’s total
exports to the US under the pact.
KNBS data shows that women’s trousers and shorts (valued at Sh6.8
billion) topped the list of items that Americans ordered from Kenya in
the first 10 months of last year, followed by men’s trousers (Sh6.1
billion) and coffee (Sh2.9 billion).
Other items that the world’s largest economy took in from Nairobi are
tea (Sh1.8 billion) and titanium (Sh1.6 billion). Titanium is used as
an alloy with other metals to produce lightweight metals for jet

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2017

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