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Tuesday 24th of January 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Fireflies is every bit as great a novel as A House for Mr Biswas. Africa |
Chaudhuri, “its mixture of randomness and predestination”, as well as its “tantalasing, slightly alarming, circular musicality”, Fireflies is every bit as great a novel as A House for Mr Biswas.
I have just finished it. And I have not returned to Biswas for several years. Why, at this moment, it seems to me that Fireflies – a first novel published when the author is 25 years old – is a greater achievement than A House for Mr Biwas.
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The United States will take steps to foil Chinese efforts to "take over" the South China Sea, the White House Law & Politics |
The United States will take steps to foil Chinese efforts to “take over” the South China Sea, the White House has indicated, amid growing hints that Donald Trump’s administration intends to challenge Beijing over the strategic waterway.
Speaking at a press briefing on Monday White House press secretary Sean Spicer vowed the US would “make sure that we protect our interests” in the resource-rich trade route, through which some $4.5tn (£3.4tn) in trade passes each year.
His comments come less than a fortnight after Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, set the stage for a potentially explosive clash with Beijing by likening its artificial island building campaign in the South China Sea to “Russia’s taking of Crimea”.
Conclusions
“A blockade [of China’s artificial islands] would be incredibly provocative and would almost certainly spark a US-China confrontation on the water … If the US is going to blockade China’s access to territories which it – rightly or wrongly – believes are its, then we are in for a confrontation.”
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As Trump moves in, memory mixes with desire in Russia MK Bhadrakumar Law & Politics |
Russia’s economic relations with the US and people-to-people relations between the two countries are minuscule. According to the US Government statistics, trade with Russia stood at a paltry US$18.7 billion in 2016 — a substantial decline from US$23.3 billion the previous year.
Ironically, despite western sanctions, Russia’s share in the European gas market increased by 3 percent to touch 34 percent last year and its number one market, Germany, showed the highest growth in absolute terms — 10 percent growth in one year to touch a whopping 49.8 billion cubic meters, with the Nord Stream pipeline operating to its full capacity.
So, things can only get better in Russia-US economic relations, with energy cooperation at its very center, especially with Rex Tillerson as state secretary. To be sure, Big Oil will be running a fine comb through the conversation between President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller in the Kremlin — by a delightful coincidence on January 20, just a few hours ahead of Trump’s inaugural ceremony in Washington — outlining the vast and ambitious plans of expansion on the anvil in Russia’s oil and gas sector.
In sum, Trump resuscitating the Reagan Doctrine (sans ideological baggage). Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Moscow just 3 days before Trump’s inauguration:As for nuclear weapons, strategic stability and nuclear and strategic parity, this is a key issue in Russian-US relations … we must keep in mind absolutely all factors that influence strategic stability, and there are many factors besides nuclear weapons. They include strategic conventional weapons, including hypersonic weapons that can destroy targets in any part of the world within an hour even without nuclear warheads. Those who have these weapons do not need nuclear weapons. The second factor is the Ballistic Missile Defence system, which is changing the strategic balance. We need to negotiate this issue, so that any changes in strategic balance will not destabilize the situation. One more thing that influences strategic stability is the space militarization plans of the current and previous US administrations. There are also other variables, including the US refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. All these factors … influence global strategic balance and parity. We are willing to hold talks as soon as the new US administration assumes office …, which must be held in a businesslike manner and with full awareness of our responsibility to our nations and to the rest of the world.
The Obama administration’s refusal to negotiate lies at the core of the derailment of US-Russia reset. Russia will regard ABM deployment as the touchstone of Trump’s intentions and willingness to abandon containment strategy.
Conclusions
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@Dcurnutt: Trump is the ultimate black swan @tomkeene @flacqua @bsurveillance . Law & Politics |
This is an Imperial court & the moral of the story is in a Fairy Tale by Hans Christian Andersen Emperor's New Clothes
"The Emperor's New Clothes" (Danish: Kejserens nye Klæder) is a short tale written by Danish author Hans Christian Andersen, about two weavers who promise an emperor a new suit of clothes that they say is invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent. When the Emperor parades before his subjects in his new clothes, no one dares to say that they don't see any suit of clothes on him for fear that they will be seen as "unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent". Finally, a child cries out, "But he isn't wearing anything at all!" The tale has been translated into over 100 languages
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TRUMP'S VAINGLORIOUS AFFRONT TO THE C.I.A. @TheNewYorker Law & Politics |
On Saturday, speaking to about four hundred intelligence officials, Trump blamed any misunderstanding on the media. “They are among the most dishonest human beings on Earth,” he said. (The official White House transcript notes “laughter” and “applause” here.) “They sort of made it sound like I had a feud with the intelligence community. And I just want to let you know, the reason you’re the No. 1 stop is exactly the opposite—exactly.”
Trump said he assumed that “almost everybody” in the cavernous C.I.A. entry hall had voted for him, “because we’re all on the same wavelength, folks.”
In his remarks, Trump made passing reference to the “special wall” behind him but never mentioned the top-secret work or personal sacrifices of intelligence officers like Ames and the others who died in Beirut, including the C.I.A. station chief Kenneth Haas, and James F. Lewis, who had been a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, and his wife Monique, who was on her first day on the job at the Beirut embassy. Nor did the President refer to any of the dozens of others for whom stars are etched on the hallowed C.I.A. wall of honor. It was like going to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and not mentioning those who died in the Second World War.
''Then they say, Is Donald Trump an intellectual? Trust me, I’m like a smart persona.”
“Did everybody like the speech?” Trump asked. “I’ve been given good reviews. But we had a massive field of people. You saw them. Packed. I get up this morning, I turn on one of the networks, and they show an empty field. I say, wait a minute, I made a speech. I looked out, the field was—it looked like a million, million and a half people.”
Crowd scientists who spoke to the Times estimated that about a hundred and sixty thousand people attended, compared with the record-setting 1.8 million who were estimated to have been at President Obama’s first Inauguration. Trump was defiant. “We caught them, and we caught them in a beauty,” he told the C.I.A. crowd. “And I think they’re going to pay a big price.”
The former C.I.A. director John Brennan, who retired on Friday, called it a “despicable display of self-aggrandizement in front of C.I.A.’s Memorial Wall of Agency heroes,” according to a statement released through a former aide. Brennan said he thought Trump “should be ashamed of himself.”
“What self-centered, irrational decision process got him to this travesty?” MacGaffin told me. “Most importantly, how will that process serve us when the issues he must address are dangerous and incredibly complex? This is scary stuff!”
“He used the scene as a prop for another complaint about the media and another bit of braggadocio about his crowds and his support,” Pillar told me Sunday. “That the specific prop was the C.I.A.’s memorial wall, and that Trump made no mention of those whom that wall memorializes, made his performance doubly offensive.”
At 7:35 a.m. on Sunday, Trump responded on Twitter to the negative reactions to his comments. “Had a great meeting at CIA Headquarters yesterday, packed house, paid great respect to Wall, long standing ovations, amazing people. WIN!”
But it’s hard to see how America’s new leader will recoup from a performance so shallow, irreverent, and vainglorious.
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14-NOV-2016 :: Here comes President Trump Law & Politics |
The result in the US mimicked the Brexit result and what is clear to me is that we are watching a populist wave or zeitgeist which has now swept the United Kingdom and the US and has Italy (where Matteo Renzi has called for a Referendum), France (where Marine Le Pen is the most popular politician by a street) and the Netherlands all in its crosshairs.
Comic-turned-politician Beppe Grillo, co-founder of Five Star, said
“ This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.”
And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.
Returning to President-elect Trump who deployed linguistic warfare with devastating effect. The names he gave his opponents — Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low- energy’ Jeb — were devastating.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.0752 The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.0754 EUR=, after earlier touching $1.0774, its strongest level since Dec. 8. Dollar Index 100.06 The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, slipped 0.1 percent to 100.040 .DXY, after falling to 99.899 on Monday, its lowest since Dec. 8. Japan Yen 112.97 The dollar was up 0.1 percent at 112.84 yen JPY= but notched a low of 112.52 earlier in the session, its weakest since Nov. 30 Swiss Franc 0.9972 Pound 1.2505 The pound was slightly lower on the day at $1.2520 GBP= after earlier touching $1.2538, its loftiest level against the dollar since Dec. 15. Aussie 0.7571 India Rupee 68.115 South Korea Won 1164.00 Brazil Real 3.1634 Egypt Pound 19.0055 South Africa Rand 13.4392
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How Does the Hottest Metals Trade Work? First, Find a Warehouse Commodities |
The appeal of cobalt for manufacturers of next-generation batteries is that the metal makes for an efficient electrode, and can help stored power last longer. While the market was mired in surplus for years after the financial crisis, supplies are tightening because the electric-vehicle boom is set to boost demand 16 percent annually on average through 2022, according to commodity researcher CRU Group.
That’s already impacting physical prices, which are the highest in more than five years. Low-grade cobalt on Wednesday reached $16 a pound on the spot market, up more than 60 percent from lows in December 2015, according to London-based Metal Bulletin Ltd., a commodity market price tracker. Average prices this year may exceed CRU’s November high-end forecast of $18, and may rise “well above” $20 if supplies fall short of estimates, Edward Spencer, a senior consultant at CRU, said by e-mail.
Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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Africa: A shrinking space for autocrats @FT @davidpilling Africa |
Rarely can so huge a continent have displayed so much interest in so small a country. Ever since Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh, an African dictator from central casting, first agreed to step down after losing elections in December, the sliver of a nation has become a symbol of Africa’s democratic aspirations. In the days up to the expiry of Mr Jammeh’s term in office at midnight last Wednesday, the sight of a capricious autocrat digging in his heels and rebuffing attempts by neighbouring leaders to squeeze him out, transfixed much of the continent.
Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, chair of the African Union, summed up how much was riding on this nation of just 2m people when she tweeted: “If we fail the people of The Gambia, we will be failing Africa. We’ve come a long way. Democracy in Africa is thriving.”
To say democracy is thriving is a bold statement about a continent that has, not without reason, been associated with dictators and one-party rule. Seven of the world’s 10 longest-serving leaders are African, with Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang leading the roster. If democracy is thriving, then so is autocracy.
Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese businessman whose foundation has encouraged good government, is not starry-eyed about the state of African democracy, saying there are at least 20 countries “making a real mess of things”. But he does sense a new activism among Africans pushing for genuine representation.
“The new generation is better educated and social media is offering them better platforms,” he says. “This is a massive new force that can really change things for the better.”
Gambia aside, the last year or so, admittedly, has not been great for African democracy. Leaders in Burundi and Rwanda changed constitutions to allow themselves to stay on. Joseph Kabila failed to hold an election in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a vast, lawless country that — despite its name — has never had a properly democratic transfer of power. In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni, in office for 30 years and counting, held flawed elections. In Gabon, President Ali Bongo, whose father notched up 42 years, won in an election that was swung by what seemed to many an improbable 95.5 per cent of the vote on a 99 per cent turnout in Mr Bongo’s home district.
“It always amazes me whenever you have an election in Africa, you see the queues of people outside the polling stations in the sun and the heat,” says Mr Ibrahim. “It seems like our poor people in Africa believe more in western democracy than westerners do.”
West Africa, once a byword for coups and dictators, is now probably the most democratic region on the continent. With so many of today’s leaders the beneficiary of elections, a domino effect has taken hold and the region as a whole has become committed to the idea.
“If you get one or two governments that exercise democratic practices, it tends to influence neighbouring countries,” says Mr Meredith.
Kenya has proved typical of the “it’s our turn to eat” blight on much of African democracy, in which winners use the ballot box to seize the levers of state.
Gambia’s case shows that the space for autocrats is shrinking. Even the worst dictators in Africa, from Mr Mugabe to Mr Kabila, feel obliged to hold occasional elections. And, as Mr Jammeh has found to his cost, once you seek the verdict of the people, anything can happen.
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12-DEC-2016 After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring Africa |
The big picture point is in fact a demographic one. Many commentators define the African population surge as a ‘’dividend’’ but what is clear is that if it is allowed a Free and Fair vote its going be a Terminator for a whole number of regimes. The demographic bulge is now arriving at voting age. This is that moment, its importance cannot be gainsaid.
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On a per capita basis, regional GDP contracted by an estimated 1.1 percent @Worldbankafrica Africa |
Growth in the Sub-Saharan Africa region is estimated to have slowed to a 1.5 percent rate in 2016, the weakest pace in over two decades, as commodity exporting economies adjusted to low prices1. On a per capita basis, regional GDP contracted by an estimated 1.1 percent.
Risks to the outlook are heavily tilted to the downside. Externally, heightened policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe could lead to financial market volatility and higher borrowing costs or cut off capital flows to emerging and frontier markets. A reversal of flows to the region would hit heavily traded currencies, like the South African rand, hard. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China could weigh on demand for export commodities and undermine prices. Continued weakness in commodity prices would strain fiscal and current account balances, forcing spending cuts that could weaken recovery and investment.
Domestic risks include the failure to adjust to low commodity prices and weak global demand. Populist pressures may deter authorities from taking the necessary measures to contain fiscal deficits and rebuild policy buffers. A further deterioration of security conditions in some countries could put strains on public finances.
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In fact, GDP of 1.5% is well behind the demographic rate of expansion, signaling Africa is not even standing still but is getting worse off. Africa |
Against this International Back-drop the IMF is estimating SSA GDP FY 2016 at just 1.5%, the lowest rate of GDP Expansion in more than 20 Years. and a far-cry from the Boom between 2010 and 2015 when GDP growth outperformed global rates at an average of 4.4% a year and the ''Africa rising'' banner was flying high. In fact, GDP of 1.5% is well behind the demographic rate of expansion, signaling Africa is not even standing still but is getting worse off. Big Economies like South Africa, Nigeria and Angola are in recession or just skirting one. East Africa [who received a significant Tail-wind from the lower Oil Price structure] and the likes of Cote D'Ivoire and Senegal have been out-performing, but more is needed.
Abebe Aemro Selassie, The Director of the African Department at the IMF says: “Policy response in many countries affected by these shocks has been delayed and incomplete and this raises uncertainty, deters private investment and stifles new sources of growth.”
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Now's the time to bet on Africa's supermarkets QUARTZ Africa |
Overall, business management consulting firm McKinsey projects household consumption will grow at an average rate of 3.8% from 2016 to 2025 to reach some $2.1 trillion.
A lot of that growth will be driven by the continuing urbanization of the continent. The UN estimates African cities will add an additional 24 million people every year between 2015 and 2045.
Supermarket chains like South Africa’s Shoprite and Kenya’s Nakumatt might be tiny blips on the global retail stage today, but the consumer markets they serve are attracting the attention of investors ready to play the long game. It makes sense if you’re look at the growth potential of the consumer base. In addition, the informal economy of open street markets still dominates 90% of retail in large countries like Nigeria and Kenya, meaning it’s a near safe bet there’s plenty of room to grow
With overall African household consumption expected to grow about 45% from 2015 to 2025, now might be the time to get in on Africa’s supermarket sector.
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Base Titanium @BaseTitanium Base Resources @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
Base Titanium released its quarterly activities report – December 2016 last week in Nairobi. Base Resources' share price closed at a 26 month high of 25 Australia dollar cents and has rallied an extraordinary +640.09% over a 12 month period. The highest price was clocked in March 2013 (when the commodity markets were in full swing ) at 53cents. Base Titanium mines mineral sands at Kwale. Mineral sands produce the following
''Finely ground titanium dioxide is used as white pigment in paints, plastics, paper, and even edibles - constituting the single greatest use of titanium worldwide. Zircon's primary use is in the production of ceramic tiles, but also in more exotic applications such as foundry casings, nuclear fuel rods, or water purification systems to name just a few. The main uses for rutile are the manufacture of refractory ceramic, as a pigment, and for the production of titanium metal'' (Seeking Alpha).
Mineral sands are an esoteric corner of the commodities markets and transactions are typically bilateral.
I was introduced to Tim Carstens, the CEO of Base Resources by the then Australian High Commissioner Geoff Tooth and have watched Tim up close and personal and can say at this time, Mr Carstens has proven he has the wherewithal to navigate through multiple complex (and even asymmetric) environments simultaneously. During this period, Base Resources has had to navigate a boom and a bust in the commodities markets, a nascent mining environment here in Kenya (and I have to give credit to Tim and the CS Dan Kazungu who both never lost sight of the national interest) and simultaneously keep the whole show financed at an international level.
Rutile is responsible for 50% of revenue but only 15% of volume and therefore bulk Rutile sales have a significant impact on revenues. Ilmenite prices rallied an eye-popping +40% in Q4 2016 and prices for Base Resources’ ilmenite have increased by over 100% between May and December 2016. Base ramped up production with Ore mined (tonnes) clocking 3,049,333 in December 2016 versus 2,101,295 in December 2015. Average revenue per tonne clocked $250 per tonne (versus $200 last quarter). Base is surfing the price rebound and extracting more value by optimising production. Interestingly, Kenya exported $16million of Titanium to the US ten months through 2016 just a little behind Tea ($18m for the same dates). That is called a diversification of our exports basket right there. The rising tide of production and prices helped base reduce its net debt by $18.1million to $129.5million.
This remarkable performance will lead to higher royalty payments for the government of Kenya but its important to look at base not through a royalty prism alone. Base reminds me of a moon landing, its planted the mining flag in the Kenyan soil. Kenya did not have a mining sector before Base Titanium. And in the future, Base's modus operandi will be a calling card for its expansion across the continent. They are looking at a property just south of Tanga in Tanzania. Given how aggressive President Magafuli can be, I would be surprised if he has not pounced on Tim, yet. Base has an outstanding safety record; Kwale operations’ lost time injury frequency rate (“LTIFR”) remains at zero. Base Resources’ employees and contractors have now worked 8.2 million man-hours LTI free, with the last LTI recorded in the March quarter of 2014. It is Base which is seeking to revitalise the cotton value chain as its contribution towards creating a sustainable economy after the mine's life has expired. At every step, Base has been ahead of the curve, I am certain that the ROI for the local community is off the charts.
Base Resources is listed in Australia and I expect the share price to scale all time highs over the next 18 months.
Base is living proof that the Kenya mining sector is now open for business and we should always remember the pioneers who opened it up.
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MasterCard regional platform to boost smallholder farmers Kenyan Economy |
MasterCard has launched a digital platform that connects smallholder farmers, agents, buyers and banks in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
The phone-based platform dubbed 2KUZE, enables farmers to buy, sell and receive payments for agricultural goods via their feature phones.
The product is one of the local technology solutions developed at the Mastercard Lab for Financial Inclusion based in Nairobi.
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THE HOUSING FINANCE GROUP ALLEGED FRAUD via Kenyan Wall Street Kenyan Economy |
From the filings in industrial court, the case against Housing finance and former credit manager Kevin Isika, and our investigation of HF financial statements here are the brief summary of current events.
(kindly note this was copied from the court case file word by word as written by the former credit manager Kevin Isika in his law suit against Housing Finance)
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N.S.E Today |
The first few days of President Donald J. Trump's Administration have been remarkable. ''Then they say, Is Donald Trump an intellectual? Trust me, I’m like a smart persona.” The President informed the CIA “Did everybody like the speech?” Trump asked. ''I say, wait a minute, I made a speech. I looked out, the field was—it looked like a million, million and a half people.” Crowd scientists who spoke to the Times estimated that about a hundred and sixty thousand people attended, compared with the record-setting 1.8 million who were estimated to have been at President Obama’s first Inauguration. The situation is in danger of turning Orwellian. my Theory is that Donald J Trump administration is like an Imperial Court and No one is prepared to counsel caution and thats why we keep witnessing these crazy and vainglorious episodes like the size of his inauguration. Via Executive order, President Trump has withdrawn the US from TTIP and lobbed some serious threats at the Chinese. The withdrawal from TTIP is signalling a more protectionist US encouraged profit-taking on the Dollar which had rallied sharply since November 8th. The UK supreme Court has ruled Parliament must vote on triggering Brexit It is predicted and predictable that Parliament will accede to Brexit. The NSE20 sank -1.11% to close at a Fresh 2008 Low of 2873.02. The NSE20 has slumped -9.82% in 2017. The Nairobi All Share retreated -0.62% to close at 123.29 and is -7.53% in 2017 and at levels last seen in July 2013. Equity turnover was brisk and clocked 1.015b.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed +0.57% to close at 17.55 and closed the session trading shares as high as 19.10 +9.46%. Sasini Tea and Coffee reported FY Earnings yesterday where FY Revenue accelerated +28.157% but FY Earnings Per Share declined -20.609%. Its a cheap share and Tea Prices are on a Tear in 2017.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 18.20 and traded 12.379m shares worth 225.332m. Safaricom is basing out at -4.96% Year To Date and got caught up in the back-wash of a Bear market at the Securities Exchange.
TPS Serena bucked the trend and closed +0.26% at 19.05.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya-Re closed unchanged at 23.00 and traded 3.793m shares. Kenya Re is +2.22% in 2017 and this outperformance has been activated on good volume action.
Bank shares were soft and traded to the downside with Barclays easing -2.59%, COOP Bank -2.08%, Equity -0.96% and KCB -0.94%. HFC which has been reacting to revelations being produced in Court retreated -3.82% to close at 11.30. HFC has fallen -19.28% in 2017 3x faster than the All Share.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Ahead of the release of its H1 Earnings this Friday and after announcing that they are seeking offers for ''a six-acre piece of land in Mombasa’s Shimanzi Industrial Area'' worth about $7m, EABL eased back -0.9% to close at 220.00 and on heavy volume action of 2.352m shares worth 517.646m. EABL is -9.83% in 2017. Andrew Cowan will be delivering his first Earnings Release this Friday.
BAT ticked -0.09% lower to close at 899.00 and traded 156,900 shares. BAT is -1.1% in 2017 outperforming the Indices by a wide margin with the RJ Reynolds Buy-Out surely keeping the share on a strengthening tack.
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