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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 26th of January 2017
 
Morning,
Africa

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09-JAN-2017 :: The Mexico Peso [sits at the bleeding Edge of Trump's Policies]
Africa


Mexican President @EPN : Mexico will not pay for any wall, demands
respect; has ordered steps to support immigrants

Mexican President @EPN : Mexico is negotiating new trade rules with
U.S. and is willing to work the new government

read more



Bitcoin Lovers, Thank Beijing
Africa


On average, 97 percent of all bitcoin transactions between the end of
July and Dec. 31 were performed in the Chinese currency. This week,
that number dropped to 63 percent; Wednesday's 33 percent was the
lowest since December 2013.

Home Thoughts

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Nature soothes my soul. Ngong hills. Photo by Mian Taqeel Khan.
Africa


“I had a farm in Africa, at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator
runs across these Highlands, a hundred miles to the north and the farm
lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet. In the day-time you felt
that you had got high up, near to the sun, but the early mornings and
evenings were limped and restful, and the nights were cold” Karen
Blixen.

read more


@kenyapics Elephantastic morning in the Tsavo.
Africa


“He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the
present controls the past.” ― George Orwell, 1984

“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together
again in new shapes of your own choosing.” ― George Orwell, 1984

“History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in
which the Party is always right.”  ― George Orwell, 1984

“I understood HOW: I do not understand WHY.” ― George Orwell, 1984

read more





Trump moves ahead with wall, puts stamp on U.S. immigration, security policy
Law & Politics


President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered construction of a
U.S.-Mexican border wall and punishment for cities shielding illegal
immigrants while mulling restoring a CIA secret detention program as
he launched broad but divisive plans to reshape U.S. immigration and
national security policy.

A draft executive order seen by Reuters that Trump is expected to sign
in the coming days would block the entry of refugees from war-torn
Syria and suspend the entry of any immigrants from Muslim-majority
Middle Eastern and African countries Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq,
Iran, Libya and Yemen while permanent rules are studied.

Less than a week into his presidency, Trump has moved aggressively to
put his stamp on a range of policies, including steps to gut the
healthcare system devised by his predecessor, and make clear that as
president he is not turning toward more moderate positions than he
took as a candidate.

read more








.@realDonaldTrump cheered @KellyannePolls use of the phrase "alternative facts" @AP
Law & Politics


Donald Trump holds the most powerful office in the world. But he's
dogged by insecurity over his loss of the popular vote in the election
and a persistent frustration that the legitimacy of his presidency is
being challenged by Democrats and the media, aides and associates say.

Trump's fixation has been a drag on the momentum of his opening days
in office, with his exaggerations about inauguration crowds and false
assertions about illegal balloting intruding on advisers' plans to
launch his presidency with a flurry of actions on the economy. His
spokesman Sean Spicer has twice stepped into the fray himself,
including on Tuesday, when he doubled down on Trump's false claim that
he lost the popular vote because 3 million to 5 million people living
in the U.S. illegally cast ballots.

"He believes what he believes based on the information he was
provided," said Spicer, who provided no evidence to back up the
president's statements. All 50 states and the District of Columbia
have finalized their election results with no reports of the kind of
widespread fraud that Trump is alleging.

If the president's claim were true it would mark the most significant
election fraud in U.S. history — and ironically, would raise the same
questions about Trump's legitimacy that he's trying to avoid. Yet
Spicer repeatedly sidestepped questions about whether the Trump
administration would investigate the allegations pushed by the
president.

"Anything is possible," he said.

"There is this constant theme to undercut the enormous support that he
has," Spicer said. "And I think that it's just unbelievably
frustrating when you're continually told it's not big enough, it's not
good enough, you can't win."

Less than one week into the administration, Spicer has twice been sent
to the White House briefing room to reiterate his boss' message. Trump
is said to have approved of Spicer's angry tirade against the media on
Saturday, which included false statements about the inaugural crowds.
But the president, who is intensely focused on optics, was said to be
critical of Spicer's on-camera image.

By Monday, Spicer was donning a darker suit and his lectern in the
briefing room had been lowered somewhat.

Underscoring Trump's habit of stoking rivalries among his staff, he
has told people he wants his counselor Kellyanne Conway to be on
television more. He cheered her use of the phrase "alternative facts"
in a recent interview as a way to counteract what he believes is the
media's inherent bias.

Those around Trump are trying to get the cable news consumer-in-chief
to be near a television less often, according to one person who has
spoken with him.

read more










Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0743
Dollar Index 100.01
Japan Yen 113.64
Swiss Franc 0.9989
Pound 1.2639
Aussie 0.7565
India Rupee 67.975
South Korea Won 1158.91
Brazil Real 3.1701
Egypt Pound 18.796
South Africa Rand 13.2573

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Iron Ore Extends New Year Ascent
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Erdogan in Africa: Gulen and trade ties DW
Africa


Erdogan wants the Gulen-linked schools in Africa to be closed down,
yet they are the very educational establishments which are popular
with Africa's middle class. They are an inexpensive alternative to
French schools, Ibrahamia Bano Barry, a sociologist at the University
of Sonfonia in Guinea, told DW. "If parents send their children to
Turkish schools, it is not because the schools are Turkish, but
because they employ good teachers. Africa's middle class want good
schools," he said.

read more


"He is leaving tomorrow and will arrive in Banjul at around 4pm," said Amie Bojang
Africa


Gambia's President Adama Barrow, who was inaugurated in neighbouring
Senegal as mediators sought an exit deal for his predecessor Yayha
Jammeh, is due to return to Gambia on Thursday, a senior aide told
Reuters.

"He is leaving tomorrow and will arrive in Banjul at around 4pm," said
Amie Bojang.

read more




SUB SAHARAN AFRICA: CORRUPTION IS A BIG ISSUE IN 2016 AFRICAN ELECTIONS
Africa


The elections held across Africa in 2016 provide a good reflection of
corruption trends in the region.
In countries like Ghana, which is the second worst decliner in the
2016 Corruption Perceptions Index in the region, the dissatisfaction
of citizens with the government’s corruption record was reflected in
their voting at the polls. South Africa, which continues to stagnate
this year, has witnessed the same. Joseph Kabila’s Democratic Republic
of Congo and Yahya Jammeh’s Gambia, which both declined, demonstrate
how electoral democracy is tremendously challenged in African
countries because of corruption.

read more



IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Angola
Africa


Annual inflation was estimated to reach 45 percent by end 2016—the
highest rate in over a decade—reflecting higher domestic fuel prices,
a weaker kwanza, and the lagged effects of loose monetary conditions
until the first half of the year

Meanwhile, a wide spread between the parallel and primary market
exchange rates remains, pointing to a significant imbalance in the
foreign exchange market.

read more



South African farmers and labor unions say the European Union is selling chicken legs, thighs and wings at below cost, threatening local companies and jobs
Africa


EU producers make enough money marketing breasts in their home market
that dark meat is sold as a waste product, they say.

read more






Nigeria's Outlook Downgraded by Fitch Due to Dollar Shortages
Africa


Fitch Ratings Ltd. revised the outlook on Nigeria to negative from
stable over concerns that a lack of foreign exchange will hamper the
economy, and affirmed the west African nation’s rating at B+, four
steps below investment grade.

While Nigeria’s economy will probably grow at 1.5 percent this year,
after contracting by an estimated 1.5 percent in 2016, the non-oil
sector will continue to be constrained by foreign currency shortages,
the ratings agency said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.

“Access to foreign exchange will remain severely restricted until the
Central Bank of Nigeria can establish the credibility of the interbank
foreign exchange market and bring down the spread between the official
rate and the parallel market rates,” Fitch said.

The central bank devalued the naira in June but continued to intervene
to keep the currency at about 315 against the U.S dollar, compared
with almost 500 on the parallel market. Trading volumes have increased
since June but remain low. They were $8.4 billion in December,
compared with $24 billion in December 2014, according to Fitch.

While government debt remains low at 17 percent of GDP, the shortage
of state revenues “poses a risk to debt sustainability,” according to
Fitch

read more




The new President of Ghana Nana Akufo-Addo is saying all the right things
Africa


Ghana looks primed to move from a policy-making haircut to a
policy-making premium

read more






EDITORIAL: Tone down political rhetoric @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Toxic political pronouncements on the ongoing voter registration are
already causing public anxiety about the August 8 General Election.

Unless the politicians tone down, they could set be setting Kenyans up
for divisive campaigns and a contested election outcome once again.
Kenyans have every reason to demand that the political class
demonstrate their commitment to a peaceful election this time around.

read more








Coffee prices have so far gone up 9.3 per cent while the value of tea has grown by 6.3 per cent in the latest sales. @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


A market report from Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) shows a 50
kilogramme bag of coffee sold at Sh29,973 up from Sh27,398 last week,
which is the highest price in the last two years while tea prices at
the Mombasa auction hit a high of Sh286 a kilo last Tuesday, up from
Sh268 the previous week.

The increase in price of coffee is attributed to higher prices at the
world’s largest auction in New York, with which others benchmark.

read more


Kenya Top Stockbrokers by Market Share as of Dec 2016 @kenyanwalstreet
Kenyan Economy


Kestrel 20.9%
RenCap 16.7%
SBG 13.8%
Equity Inv Bank 12.7%
SIB 8.3%
African Al. 6.6%

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above 20,000 for the first
time ever in its history.
The US Stock market is self-evidently about the prospects for USA Inc
under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump.
The Dow has advanced 11 percent since just before Trump’s election, at
times posting the fastest rally for a new president since 1900.
Given Goldman Sachs' central role in diminishing Hillary Clinton's
bona fides [re well-timed Wikileaks leaks which confirmed she had been
paid by GS to speak to their Clients], and then the Institutions
spectacular Take-over of the Trump Administration, its worthy of note
that Goldman Sachs' +50% rally since November 8th has been responsible
for 20% of the Dow Jones gains in 2017.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned to pre-Nov 8th Levels.
Nairobi has had a simply frightful start to 2017 with the All Share
-7.93% [42 month Lows] and the NSE20 -10.37% [2008 Lows] through this
mornings open.
The market is in a disequilibrium and operating in such an environment
can be like catching a falling Knife but looking 12 months out,
everything has to go wrong for Investors not to make money, in my
opinion.
EABL will report H1 Earnings Pre-Market Opening tomorrow and might
well set the tone going forward.
Diageo, EABL's parent, issued H1 Earnings and reported a +4% net sales
growth in Africa and a +2.00% growth in operating Profit.
The Nairobi All Share fell 0.35 points to close at 122.42 a Fresh Low
The NSE20 fell 31.49 points to close at 2824.32.
Equity Turnover clocked 311.502m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Tea Prices are +6.3% and Coffee Prices +9.3% this year.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed +0.275% to close at 18.25 and was trading at session
highs of 18.35 +0.82% at the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 6.151m
shares and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Ratio of 5 versus 3. Safaricom
retreated -6.266% start of the Year through Jan 17th. Safaricom has
rebounded +1.67% since Jan 17th and will bounce further. Clearly, like
there was outsize demand for Sterling at below 1.2000 to the Dollar,
there is real solid demand at 18.00.

Nation Media closed unchanged at 75.50 and traded 234,000 shares.
Nation Media is -18.81% in 2017 and that follows on from a very big
price retreat in 2016.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Sunil Sanger confirmed that ''All banking stocks except Equity Bank
and Standard Chartered
are trading at discount to Book Value!'' Its
been torrid for Investors.

Barclays Bank saw intense volume action [versus its historical volume
averages] and eased -1.38% to close at 7.15 with 8.629m shares worth
61.717m changing hands. Barclays Bank is -21.42% in 2017 and trades on
a Trailing P/E Ratio of 4.612. This is now a plain egregious price.
Interestingly, Arif Naqvi the Abraaj Group CEO once again through
Abraaj's hat into the ring at Davos re the divestment of Barclays
Africa.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Firstly allow me to thank Dougie Duncanson Luxury Brand Ambassador for
Diageo Reserve for an outstanding Robert Burns celebration at the
Norfolk yesterday. Dougie show-cased Diageo's finest Whisky and Moshi
Perera's Norfolk even served up some ''nouvelle-cuisine'' Haggis. So
the timing was rather neat given that EABL will report H1 Earnings
tomorrow morning. EABL announced a few sessions ago that they were
selling a 6 acre piece of Property in Mombasa for about $7m. Investors
will be keenly anticipating Mr. Cowan's first set of results. EABL had
retreated -10.24% in 2017 through this morning and had gotten caught
up in the general market malaise. Investors today calculated that the
downdraft was overdone and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of
10-1. EABL firmed +0.46% to close at 220.00 and traded 102,100 shares
all at that level. EABL's flagship Beer Tusker Lager was -27% at the
previous FY mark and Investors will be keenly watching that.

KenGen eased -1.00% to close at a Fresh all-time Low of 4.95 and
traded heavy duty volume of 12.63m shares worth 62.531m. KenGen closed
out the session trading at 5.40 +8.00%. KenGen's share price is in
disequilibrium.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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