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Macro Thoughts

2016 was surely an extraordinary once in a life-time type of year. Big
headline events like Brexit and the election of Donald J Trump spoke
to a new normal. It certainly felt like the disruption of an old
normal. The intersection and correlation between politics and
economics was plain for all to see. The pound moved close to 20 big
figures in a window of 24 hours around the Brexit vote. Later on
October 7, the pound flash crashed close to 10 per cent. These kinds
of price moves are normally associated with frontier market
currencies. The FX markets are now driven ‘’by lightening quick,
complex, computerised trading programs’’ and these ‘’algorithmic
models pick up the same ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ signals, magnifying price
swings’’ (Reuters).

Cultural theorist Paul Virilio said: “Wealth is the hidden side of
speed and speed the hidden side of wealth.” And when you look at the
frequency of these sterling like moves that we have witnessed in 2016
across the FX markets and other asset classes, you cannot but agree.
Other interesting points to note are the geopolitical, and, or, market
return correlations. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s parabolic
geopolitical rebound was matched by the Russian ruble, the second-best
performing currency worldwide, and clocked a 21 per cent appreciation
versus the dollar – bear in mind the dollar surged to 13-year highs on
a Donald Trump ‘’MAGA’’ pop. Russia’s RTS Index rallied +50.03 per
cent in 2016. The best-performing currency worldwide was a
crypto-currency BITCOIN which rallied a might 120 per cent through
2016. BITCOIN appears to have become a proxy for Chinese capital
flight.

I draw this Tweet from Christine Lu ‏@christinelu December 30, 2016,
to your attention: ‘’If you’re raising money from Chinese investors in
2017, and that money isn’t already sitting outside of China, then have
fun signing MoUs!’’ Brazil’s Bovespa Stock Index was the
best-performing Index in the world posting a 63 per cent gain in 2016.
The Brazil real rallied 20 per cent and investors into Brazil bagged a
83 per cent return. The commodity complex snapped a five-year losing
streak to close about +11.5 per cent in 2016. The energy component of
that commodity index rallied +48.2 per cent, with Brent crude
registering a +50.9 per cent gain. The Brent crude price trajectory
needs to be closely watched in 2017. If it can build on 2016 gains
then, the Saudi King and His dauphin, the deputy crown prince in
Riyadh, President Muhammad Buhari in Abuja and Angolan President Dos
Santos and others will breathe a sigh of relief. ‘’It’s a Hail-Mary
Pass’’ for oil producers, and I am of the view that the pass is going
to be fumbled in 2017. Buffers are a busted flush in many countries;
not just in Caracas. Caracas might well prove to be the canary in the
(oil producers) Calming.

Let’s now turn our gaze to Africa, which is growing at more than
20-year lows. Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi bit the bullet and
devalued the Egypt pound – the pound was -56.00 per cent in 2016.
Nigeria, which overtook South Africa as SSA’s biggest economy a while
back only to fall back again and cede top dog position again to South
Africa, saw its naira slump -36.68 per cent in 2016. The naira remains
the central paradox for the Buhari regime. It has a lot further to
fall in 2017. The Mozambique metical closed 2016 -33.27 per cent and
Angola was at -18.96 per cent. Investors need to avoid these kinds of
situations at all costs. Interestingly, the South African rand posted
an 11 per cent return just behind the Zambia kwacha at +11.96 per
cent. The shilling finished out the year trading at 102.50 versus the
dollar. Currencies like the South Sudanese pound and the Burundi franc
cratered. From a currency perspective, Africa is a landscape littered
with unexploded FX Ordinance. Zimbabwe, of course, is experimenting
with its ‘’bond notes’’. It is predicted and predictable that the Bond
Note Jig is up sometime in 2017.

The equity markets in Africa were led by Namibia which returned +34.13
per cent in 2016. South Africa was lifted by the currency gain to
register an 11 per cent return for investors. Nigeria posted -41.4 per
cent, Lusaka -16.53 per cent and Nairobi just above -12 per cent when
currency adjusted. Investors need to have their wits about them.

So lets take this opportunity to take a look at the markets in 2016.
Its been a dramatic Year in the markets with big headline political
events wrong-footing markets. The chances of BREXIT and the Election
of President Trump were considered the equivalent of three legged
ponies at the Epsom Derby, by the bookmakers. As we can see the new
Zeitgeist spread like wildfire and the World at the end of 2016 looks
nothing like it did at the beginning of the year. Vladimir Putin looks
like the biggest Geopolitical Winner in 2016 and this has been
reflected in the markets. The Russian Ruble has returned +21.31%
versus the Dollar and is the top-performing Currency versus the Dollar
in 2016. The Brazilian Real was a close second at +20.96%.

Home Thoughts

Manuel Odría ruled Peru from 1948 until 1956. His dictatorship was
deeply corrupt. His Minister of Internal Affairs, for instance, ran a
brothel. That the carbon in charge of internal affairs should run a
prostitution ring is, like a death-row guard named Mort, almost
unbearably ironic. In this case, it’s true. Politicians and
industrialists performed perverse acts and whispered state secrets to
the prostitutes, giving the Minster, and Odría, leverage on all sorts
of situations and people.

Mario Vargas Llosa’s sweeping novel is a history of Peru and Latin
American dictatorships told in a Joycean late-1960s conversation in a
bar known as The Cathedral. Santiago is the son of an influential
politician who, like so many idealistic young people in the ‘60s, has
rejected his father’s corrupt if pragmatic world. Santiago is a minor
editorial-page journalist. One afternoon, at the insistence of his
wife, he goes in search of the family dog. Dogs were being picked up
as strays, even if they weren’t, because the dogcatchers got paid per
animal. At the pound Santiago runs into his father’s now-aging
chauffeur, Ambrosio.

Santiago and Ambrosio strike up a conversation at The Cathedral. The
subject of their long conversation is the 16-year dictatorship of
Odría, as Santiago is after the truth about his father’s involvement
in a notorious murder if that era. If, in Ulysses, James Joyce managed
to give a political history of Ireland in a single 1904 day’s
perambulations, Llosa managed a political history of an entire
continent in an afternoon’s conversation. Where Joyce’s masterpiece is
full of modernist tricks and the rejection of naturalism, Llosa’s is
less flashy, and he is, arguably, the better novelist. He manages to
include a vast panoply of characters remembered, either directly or
through various media, by Santiago and Ambrosio. The effect is truly
cathedral-like, echoing and resonating with the voices of the dead,
the broken and the until-now forgotten.

Conversation in the Cathedral was originally published in 1969, when
Llosa was 33, and translated into English in 1975. Llosa called it an
attempt at a “total novel”: the complete fictionalization of an entire
society. Llosa may be, and indeed has been, criticized for his
political beliefs (he was a staunch supporter of neoliberlism and
admired Margaret Thatcher, for instance; this may well be why he
hasn’t won the Nobel, despite being short-listed any number of times),
but there is no doubt that he has long been one of the great craftsmen
of the long-fiction form. In Conversation, he never drops a stitch,
building and maintaining suspense on a monumental scale.

"the message is not exactly the medium . . . but above all the
ultimate SPEED of its propagation" Virilio

"coeval emergence of mass media an industrial army, where the
capability to war without war manifests a parallel information market
of propaganda, illusion, dissimulation (Der Derian in Virilio, 2002a:
viii).

For Virilio, speed effects are not at all ambiguous, nor are they
merely paradoxical; contemporary "real time" interterritorial
communication constructs a media ecology of social cybernetic control
and a post-national state of emergency.

For all Erdogan’s tough talk, it is not at all clear what the Turkish
army and its local allies hope to achieve in northern Syria where they
have few real friends and many dangerous enemies. They are being
sucked into a battle which they cannot hope to win decisively.

MOSCOW — In the closing days of the old year, the United States and
Russia are slapping each other in the face in the second big spy
crisis of the fast-ending era of Obama, but it’s a confrontation full
of feints and surprises.

Back in 2010, the Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested a ring of
alleged Russian “sleepers,” including red-haired Russian “Bond Girl”
Anna Chapman, who quickly became a celebrity ex-spy. In the end, not
much harm was done.

But on Thursday, President Barack Obama ordered a much more
significant action against what was portrayed as a much more sinister
plot. In retaliation for the alleged hacking of the Democratic Party
in an effort to tilt the U.S. presidential elections to Donald Trump,
35 Russians were declared “persona non grata,” two Russian
intelligence agencies were sanctioned, and a list of hackers was
published. Residences in the United States where Russian officials and
their children spent time relaxing (among other things) found
themselves shut down.

The news arrived late in the evening on Thursday in Moscow, where it
was not entirely unexpected, and the Kremlin immediately promised “a
mirror response.” But then came the surprises.

And then... and then... judo blackbelt Putin pulled one of the most
spectacular jiujitsu moves of his political career, announcing that
Russia would not be punishing any American children or closing any
American dachas. In a move that echoed Michelle Obama’s incantatory
“they go low, we go high,” Putin announced: “We will not create
problems for U.S. diplomats. We will not expel anyone. We will not
prohibit their families and children to use their usual vacation spots
in the New Year’s holidays. Moreover, I am inviting all children of
the U.S. diplomats accredited in Russia to the New Year’s and
Christmas celebration in the Kremlin.”

“While we reserve the right to respond, we will not drop to this level
of irresponsible diplomacy, and we will make further steps to help
resurrect Russian-American relations based on the policies that the
administration of D. Trump will pursue,” Putin said in a statement.

Hours after Washington imposed the sanctions on Russia’s
secret-service agencies and announced the expulsion of Russian
diplomats from the United States, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for
Russian Foreign Ministry, referred to President Obama’s administration
as “losers in foreign policy, evil and ignorant.” Zakharova also said
that by creating a diplomatic scandal with the Russia president, Obama
“humiliated” the American people and added to the list of problems for
Donald Trump to solve.

The joint DHS/FBI statement issued Thursday describes some techniques
and details, but gets no closer to the proverbial smoking keyboard.

President-elect Donald Trump’s obsequious fanboying of Putin recalls
another element of that time. His errant admiration of Putin’s style
of leadership, his naïve inability to recognize danger beneath a
veneer of amity, his curt dismissal of charges of foreign espionage
attempting to undermine the United States—these are a replay of the
worst failings of the American left in the forties and fifties.

Euro 1.0486
Dollar Index 102.36
Japan Yen 117.35
Swiss Franc 1.0216
Pound 1.2302
Aussie 0.7228
India Rupee 68.095
South Korea Won 1204.40
Brazil Real 3.2859
Egypt Pound 18.1280
South Africa Rand 13.7250

I draw this Tweet from Christine Lu ‏@christinelu December 30, 2016,
to your attention: ‘’If you’re raising money from Chinese investors in
2017, and that money isn’t already sitting outside of China, then have
fun signing MoUs!’’

Commodities

Venezuela’s benchmark dollar bond that matures in 2027 saw its price
rise from 41.13 cents on the dollar at the start of 2016 to 51.25
cents on Dec. 30. It currently yields 20.7 percent, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.

Data showing the Caracas Stock Exchange posted the world’s biggest
advance in 2016 isn’t to be trusted. That 114 percent rally is a
fiction.

Here’s what’s going on: Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar, has been in
freefall this year as locals seek to get their hands on greenbacks
amid a brutal recession, political upheaval and soaring inflation.
(Our Cafe Con Leche Index puts the annual rate at 1,100 percent.)

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

An African migrant stands on top of a border fence as Spanish police
stand guard below during a failed attempt to cross into Spanish
territories, between Morocco and Spain's north African enclave of
Ceuta, January 1, 2017. REUTERS/Jose Antonio Sempere

The region recorded its slowest overall growth in more than two
decades, as low commodity prices and political uncertainty elsewhere
put the brakes on economic progress.

1. The Risk of Genocide in South Sudan

“The stage is being set for a repeat of what happened in Rwanda.” That
was the stark warning from Yasmin Sooka, the head of a U.N. human
rights commission that reported at the end of a 10-day fact-finding
mission to South Sudan in November.

2. The African National Congress Reinvents Itself

It has been 22 years since the ANC came to power, bringing to an end
decades of racial segregation and heralding a liberated South Africa.
2016 must rank as one of the party’s worst years since that pivotal
moment

3. Leaving a Dictator Behind in Gambia

2016 was a year of shock results in elections and referenda. While
Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory grabbed the headlines, perhaps just
as astounding was the presidential election held on December 1 in the
smallest country on the African mainland.

After 22 years of authoritarian rule by Yahya Jammeh—or His Excellency
Sheikh Professor Alhaji Dr Yahya A. J. J. Jammeh Babili Mansa, as he
prefers to be known—Gambians threw off their shackles and voted for
Adama Barrow, a property developer with next to no political
experience.

4. Ethiopia’s State of Emergency

The state of emergency may be simply a sticking plaster, rather than
an antidote, for the country’s problems.

5. Burundi’s Increasing Isolation

A tiny, landlocked country with the lowest GDP per capita in the
world, it’d be reasonable to think that Burundi would want all the
friends it could get. But since President Pierre Nkurunziza’s
controversial decision in April 2015 to run for a third term in
office, Burundi has increasingly withdrawn from international
organizations and severed regional ties.

6. Holding Things Together in Nigeria

The agreement reached on New Year's Eve foresees a transition
government headed by a prime minister who is to be appointed by the
opposition. This administration will run the country until
presidential elections towards the end of 2017, when President Joseph
Kabila must step down. The breakthrough agreement was brokered by the
Catholic Bishops' Conference in Congo (CENCO). The Catholic Church is
one of the few institutions that have managed to preserve their
credibility throughout the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC)
tumultuous history.

TALATONA, Angola—This upmarket new suburb on the edge of Angola’s
capital stands as a ghostly monument to the challenges facing one of
Africa’s biggest oil producers as it braces for its first political
transition in almost four decades.

Dozens of gated communities sit mostly empty, gathering dust. They
were built during the first half of this decade for a middle class
that never materialized and a foreign elite that largely packed up and
left when a dizzying oil-price boom went bust in 2014.

In glitzy shopping malls, stores that haven’t already closed struggle
to stock their shelves, as a free-falling local currency and dollar
shortages batter imports.

Now, in its worst economic crisis since emerging from civil war in
2002, Angola is gearing up for its first leadership change in 37 years
following the announcement earlier this month that José Eduardo dos
Santos won’t seek another term as president in elections scheduled for
August.

Whether the change will bring fresh remedies to the southern African
country’s economic woes is open to question. The ruling Popular
Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, has tapped João
Lourenço, the current defense minister, as Mr. Santos’s successor, and
authorities have stepped up pressure on critical journalists and
antigovernment activists.

“There is a lot of discontent with dos Santos and above all his
family,” said Filomeno Vieira Lopes, an economist and senior member of
the Democratic Block, a small opposition party.

A closer look at Luanda’s sparkling skyline, with its skeletons of
unfinished skyscrapers with no electricity or sewage systems, reveals
how sharply the country’s economy has plummeted. In the streets below,
ordinary citizens wrestle with 41% inflation and chronic shortages of
staples such as sugar, cooking oil and medicine.

The International Monetary Fund expects that Angola’s economy will
have zero growth in 2016, marking its worst peacetime performance on
record—a disaster for a country whose population of 26 million is
growing by 3.2% annually.

Meanwhile, government debt has jumped to 78% of gross domestic
product, according to IMF estimates, from just 41 % when oil prices
plummeted in 2014.

Little is known about where or from whom the government is
borrowing—let alone at what rate—so analysts warn about the difficulty
of predicting its ability to pay back what it owes. In April, the
government entered bailout negotiations with the IMF and then
abandoned them three months later. Since then, the central bank has
used 18% of its foreign-currency reserves to keep some imports flowing
into the country.

If spending continues at this pace, “in about a year’s time you’d
probably run out of reserves,” says Stuart Culverhouse, head of
fixed-income research at Exotix Partners, an investment firm that
focuses on frontier markets.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7250
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1280
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

30-DEC-2016 President Buhari has to capitulate and therefore I expect
another fall in the Naira.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/What%20to%20expect%20in%202017%20and%20what%20happened%20in%202016.pdf

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

IN SUMMARY
The Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed firm said the proposed
transaction –which will see the allocation of 224.1 million new
ordinary shares to IFC— is subject to approvals from regulators and
shareholders.
The entry of IFC, whose offer price of Sh15.85 represents a 58.5 per
cent premium on the insurer’s closing price of Sh10 on Friday, will
dilute existing shareholders by 10.3 per cent.
Besides a relatively lower share price, IFC is also buying into Britam
at a time when the company and other underwriters are set to benefit
from mandatory purchase of marine insurance from the local market.

Par Value:
Closing Price:           10.00
Total Shares Issued:          1938415838.00
Market Capitalization:        19,384,158,380
EPS:             -0.5
PE:                 -20.000

“The drop in profits was primarily occasioned by the delayed openings
of Adidas, Bossini and F&F Stores at the Hub, Karen and the
postponement of the launch of the Two Rivers Mall to February where
the company was fully invested and ready to trade in four flagship
stores by September 2016″

Deacons posted a loss of before tax of Ksh 70.2 million during the
half year 2016 period with finance costs increasing by 79.5% to Ksh
46.8 Million.

“The shilling remained resilient, depreciating slightly by 0.1 per
cent for the year 2016 against the dollar. However, after having
appreciated by 1.2 per cent against the dollar during the first half
of 2016, the shilling depreciated towards the end of the year driven
by global dollar strength driven by the Fed raising rates,” said
Cytonn Investments in its end of year markets report.

“We have seen the Central Bank support the shilling leading to a
decline in forex reserves to $7 billion from $7.8 billion in October,
which has led to the decline in the months of import cover below the
one-year average of 4.9 months, to 4.6 months, down from 5.2 months at
the start of October.”

In addition to the CBK support, the shilling has also benefited from
strong diaspora remittances, which rose by 15 per cent year-on-year to
$156 million (Sh15.9 billion) in June 2016, as per the latest data
available from the CBK.

In comparison, the currencies of other Eat Africa Community (EAC)
countries dropped more significantly than the shilling in 2016, and
given that they are all oil importing countries, they may still face
more depreciation this year.

The Uganda and Tanzania shillings closed 2016 6.3 and 1.4 per cent
down to the dollar in exchange rate, while the Rwandan franc
depreciated by 8.5 per cent.

In the other key African economies, currencies returned a mixed
performance. While the South African rand ended the year 11.4 per cent
higher to the dollar, the Nigeria naira was down by 37 per cent and
the Egypt pound down 58 per cent.

The Russian Ruble has returned +21.31% versus the Dollar and is the
top-performing Currency versus the Dollar in 2016.. The Brazilian Real
was a close second at +20.96%. Interestingly SSA clocked positions 6
through 9 in the top 10 currency rankings in 2016; 6. Zambia Kwacha
+11.96%, 7. South Africa Rand +11.00%, 8. Lesotho Loti +11.00%, 9.
Swaziland +11.00%. 7 African currencies ranked in bottom 10
Performers. The Biggest African Loser in 2016 was the Egyptian Pound
which retreated -58.84%, followed by the Nigeria Naira -36.68%,
Mozambique Metical -33.27%, Congolese Franc - 21.14%. The British
Pound retreated -16.99% through 2016. The reason I am laying out the
currency movements is because movements are material and can juice or
trash a portfolio, in the blink of an eye. The Kenya Shilling has held
its own against the Dollar when you factor in the Carry [the interest
rate you receive] and a Stand-Out in 2016. I expect the Dollar to
continue on another leg higher, the first leg kicked off on November
8th with the election of Donald J. Trump. I am of the view that
Sterling has room to pop to the upside in 2017. Closer to home,
President Buhari has to capitulate and therefore I expect another fall
in the Naira. The Congolese franc could go just about anywhere as
buffers erode. The Zimbabwe Bond Note experiment is predicted to end
in a debacle sooner rather than later. The best-performing currency in
2016 has been the crypto- currency BITCOIN which is +120% in 2016. So
armed with this currency overlay Road-Map lets take a look at other
Assets.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

My Excitement starts in the morning when I check Donald J. Trump's
Twitter Feed -
North Korea caught his attention this morning
''North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing
a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't
happen!''
The New Year has started. Early international developments are a Crude
Oil ramp higher of over 2% to a Fresh 18 month high and a resumption
of the Dollar Surge which began on November 8th when Donald Trump won
the US Election.
BITCOIN which stormed +124% higher in 2016 stays on a roll.  BITCOIN
was the best performing currency in 2016 with the Russia Ruble +21.6%
a distant second.

The Board of Sasini has appointed Stephen Maina Githiga to succeed
Moses Changwony as the Group Managing Director of Sasini effective
January 1, 2017. Stephen previously served as the Managing Director to
First Assurance Company Limited. Sasini Tea was up-ticked +3.645% to
close at 19.90 on light trading of 4,900 shares.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and shaved off -0.78% to close at 19.00 with 10.112m shares
worth 192.134m. Under Bob Collymore's tenure, Safaricom has returned
about 700% [price appreciation and dividend payments] and this ranks
in the top percentile 1% world-wide over that period.

Standard Group [which like Nation Media took a very big price hit in
2016] traded +9.09% better to close at 18.00 and traded 500 shares.

BRITAM announced that The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will
invest KES 3.5bn to acquire a 10.37% stake in Britam. The purchase of
the 224.2m new shares at a price of KES 15.85 will be above the last
close price of KES 10.00. There is persistent chatter that there might
be a further inbound investment imminently. Mr. Wairegi has
consistently proved himself an elegant and consummate Navigator in
these matters. BRITAM surged +26.00% to close at 12.60 and traded
shares as high as 13.90 [+39.00%] during the session. BRITAM traded
93,700 shares.

Liberty Insurance followed a little in BRITAM EA's slip-stream to
close at 13.50 +2.66% and traded good chunk of shares 1.393m.

Equity Group traded 1.986m shares all at 30.00 and unchanged.
KCB Group ticked +0.87% higher to close at 29.00 and traded 1.580m
shares. I expect the Big Tier 1 Banks to gain at the expense of the
Tier 2 Banks in 2017, a trend we saw begin in the aftermath of the
Interest Rate Cap Introduction.

Deacons East Africa issued a FY profit warning. Deacons blamed delayed
openings at @TwoRivers_KE and @TheHubKaren. Deacons closed unchanged
at 6.05 on light trading.