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Monday 30th of January 2017
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
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Macro Thoughts |
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30-JAN-2017 :: @Potus @realdonaldTrump Turns the Volume "Up to 11" @TheStarkenya Law & Politics |
Its been a ''whirlwind'' first week for President Trump. The Volume
has been turned ''up to 11'' and the first week reminded me of a 1984
movie called Spinal Tap.
The phrase “Up to eleven,” was coined in a scene from the 1984
mockumentary/rockumentary This Is Spinal Tap by the character Nigel
Tufnel. In this scene Nigel gives the rockumentary's director, Marty
DiBergi, a tour of his stage equipment. While Nigel is showing Marty
his Marshall guitar amplifiers, he points out one in particular whose
control knobs all have a highest setting of eleven, unlike standard
amplifiers whose volume settings are typically numbered from 0 to 10.
Believing that this numbering increases the highest volume of the amp,
he explains "It's one louder, isn't it?" When Marty asks why the ten
setting is not simply set to be louder, Nigel hesitates before
responding blankly again "These go to eleven."
What is even more curious is trying to sift the Political impetus
behind the argument around ''Fake News'' and Kellyanne Conway's
''alternative facts'' [facts which can be established in an instant].
The impetus seems to be best explained by Steve Bannon who said
“I’m a Leninist,” Bannon proudly proclaimed.
“Lenin wanted to destroy the state, and that’s my goal too. I want to
bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s
establishment.”
Mr. Bannon has been appointed to the National Security Council.
In the first week of President Trump's Administration, he has
tightened border security and immigration and is set to build his
cherished wall. The Administration has even blocked entry for some
with bona fide Green cards. Trump has withdrawn from TTIP, pivoted to
Taiwan and had his Secretary of State lob a few ''verbal'' [for now]
missiles at China
"We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the
island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also
is not going to be allowed.”
Mohamed A. El-Erian says Trump's Economic Model ''is targeting higher
growth and greater job creation using what can be called an “import-
substitution-plus” approach to policy making, together with elements
of an industrial policy.''
The above is not an exhaustive list but a snap-shot. The Question then
arises as to how Trump will interact with Africa. President George
Bush [much loved by Michelle Obama] pushed the dial big-time for
Africa especially with his AGOA and PEPFAR Programs and many Africans
still remark on the irony that Bush actually delivered more for Africa
than President Obama. President Obama has cranked up ''Power Africa''
amongst many other initiatives, US Trade with Africa clocks about
$100b, half of China Trade with Africa and in fact Africa's biggest
Trading Partner is Europe. You would not know that because the
Europeans never mention that fact.
I found it interesting that the incoming US Administration saw fit to
announce $418m weapons sale to Kenya earlier in January. Given the
early focus of this Administration, I think this announcement is a big
Signal about the shape of the Africa - Trump administration
engagement. We are back to a counter-terrorism focus. The recent
rehabilitation of Omar-Al-Bashir is another clue. President Zuma is
out of the loop entirely for now after turning down an invitation to
meet with him in New York, when Trump was still campaigning and
considered a rank Outsider. The US and its US AFRICOM has been
advancing rapidly across the Continent. We can surely bet the house
that this Advance will now be turned to 11 as well.
Another point to note is that. Kenya like other countries in SSA
receives as much as 50% of its inward remittances from North America.
It is estimated that more than 1/2 of our People in the US are not
properly documented. Scenes that we have witnessed over the week-end
at US Airports does not bode well.
The Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs is the key Africa
appointment in any US Administration. Names that spring to mind are
the likes of Chester Crocker, Jendayi Frazier and Johnnie Carson. This
Slot has yet to be filled by Donald J. Trump and will surely set the
tone.
The New Yorker's John Cassidy characterised Trump as ''a fragile,
erratic, television-obsessed snowflake”
Africa needs to engage with Trump and try and shape that engagement
because otherwise it might just be like trying to catch a great ball
of fire.
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Trump's whirlwind week in the White House FT Law & Politics |
In The Art of the Deal, Donald Trump described hyperbole as an
“innocent form of exaggeration” that was a “very effective form of
promotion”. In an interview with ABC News on Wednesday, the US
president stretched this definition to the limit with his claim that
he would make relations with Mexico “better than ever”, despite his
demand that the country pays billions of dollars for a border wall.
“Americans are as baffled by the first days of the Trump presidency as
the rest of the world,” said David Gergen, a political adviser to
former presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. “The good news for
his supporters is he has not changed. But that is the bad news for his
detractors, who hoped he would become more presidential and more
rational.”
Kellyanne Conway, a presidential adviser, entered the fray on Sunday
and denied that Mr Spicer had lied in his defence of Mr Trump. He had
used “alternative facts”, she said, a phrase that went viral and
sparked images of her as a doll named “Propaganda Barbie”.
Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina senator and one of few Republican
Trump critics, tweeted that “any policy proposal which drives up costs
of Corona, tequila or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad”.
“Ronald Reagan certainly brought a new spirit of government, but
Reagan was willing to respect certain norms of behaviour,” said
Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York University.
“The current president seems unwilling and uninterested to respect the
bipartisan norms of presidential action. If this week is a harbinger
of the future the entire globe is going to get a case of ADD
[attention deficit disorder].”
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TRUMP'S INFORMATION WARS The New Yorker Law & Politics |
One might wish that the solemn responsibility of leading a
nuclear-armed world power would steer a successful seventy-year-old
man away from routinely telling whoppers, yet it is hardly surprising
that Trump has not changed since taking the oath of office. He has a
long record as salesman, provocateur, self-promoter, and
self-worshipper. His eruptions on Twitter and on live TV damage
American democracy and credibility, but there are even more worrying
aspects of the disinformation emanating from and around the
Administration. During the campaign, Trump’s advisers mobilized in
their service a phalanx of information warriors, including
commentators on Fox News and digital upstarts such as Breitbart News,
whose offerings included partisan and extremist content. Alongside
them worked looser, less visible online networks of racists,
anti-Semites, and nationalists. A question now is how Trump’s image
shapers, led by Stephen Bannon, the former Breitbart head who is the
White House senior counsellor, intend to adapt that strategy—which
included the promotion of big lies about President Obama’s birth and
Secretary Clinton’s health—as policy, embedded across federal
agencies.
Bannon has encouraged Trump’s aggressive attacks on the press, even as
the President seeks the media’s attention and approval. Last week, in
an interview with the Times, Bannon jokingly described himself as
Darth Vader, and said that the media should “keep its mouth shut and
just listen for a while.” He added that traditional news organizations
have “no power” and “zero integrity, zero intelligence.” He apparently
foresees a permanent campaign, energized by televised rallies and
daily tweets, so that the President may evolve into a kind of
digital-age Mussolini Lite.
It may be a weak basis for hope, but the prospects for transparent
government and sound taxpayer-funded science could depend in part on
Trump’s volatility. The President has not worked for long with his
most important Cabinet members or advisers, including Bannon. His
political fortunes are tied to those of Republican leaders in
Congress, but the trust between them is tenuous. In the ways of
Washington, these sorts of unstable relationships can yield a gusher
of media leaks. Last week, a remarkable flow of government e-mails and
draft executive orders made their way to news outlets. That is
according to constitutional design. When the Founders enacted the
First Amendment, they could not have imagined the personage of Donald
Trump, but they did have tyrants in mind. ♦
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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." Law & Politics |
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal.
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African heads of state gather in the Ethiopian capital on Monday for a two-day African Union summit Africa |
African heads of state gather in the Ethiopian capital on Monday for a
two-day African Union summit in which Morocco’s bid for readmission to
the continental bloc will shape the election of a new chairperson.
Morocco formally submitted its bid to rejoin the body last year, when
King Mohammed VI set out his government’s objectives of placing the
country “at the center” of Africa’s development. The North African
nation withdrew from the African Union’s predecessor, the Organisation
of African Unity, three decades ago in protest at recognition of the
Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic as a member state.
Five candidates are vying to replace Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as head of
the commission, including Kenyan Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed, her
Chadian counterpart Moussa Faki Mahamat, and Senegalese diplomat
Abdoulaye Battily.
“A leader that’s going to be appointed inherits problems that Zuma was
not able to address,” Ahmed Salim, Dubai-based vice president of
research group Teneo Strategy, said by e-mail. “The AU was always a
little too late when they responded to crisis, there was no voice on
any of the crisis issues.”
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Nigeria Central Bank Hits Out at 'Unpatriotic' Policy Critics Africa |
“Intelligence reports at the disposal of the bank reveal the
involvement of some unpatriotic elements funding the push to have the
Central Bank of Nigeria and the federal government reverse its
foreign-exchange policy,” Isaac Okorafor, a spokesman, said in a
statement on the Abuja-based central bank’s website. “Self-centered
individuals, who have failed to assail our patriotic position, have
resorted to the sponsorship of serial propaganda to misinform and
mislead the public on the objectives of our policies.”
The central bank will continue to ration foreign exchange and “ensure
that the masses of our country’s low-income earners are protected from
the vagaries of high naira depreciation,” Okorafor said.
Conclusions
They have to fold their hand - the only issue is when.
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Al-Shabaab says it killed 66 Kenya soldiers in Somalia FT [The number is being disputed] Kenyan Economy |
Al-Shabaab, the Islamist group, claimed its fighters killed dozens of
Kenyan soldiers in an attack on a military base in Somalia on Friday.
Kenya’s military acknowledged the assault on its forces in Lower Juba
region, but rejected the al-Qaeda-linked group’s claims that 66
soldiers were killed. It did not give any casualty figures but said
its forces repelled the assault.
Kenya has declined to give full details of that attack or how many
soldiers it lost. The Somali president put the death toll at 180.
Lieutenant Colonel Paul Njuguna, a Kenyan military spokesman, said
Friday’s raid began at dawn when al-Shabaab fighters used a vehicle
packed with explosives to try and force their way into the camp.
“[Kenyan] forces repulsed the terrorists, killing scores,” he said,
adding that Kenyan air force jets helped beat off the attack.
But Colonel Ahmed Ali of the Somali military said al-Shabaab's suicide
car bomb allowed dozens of extremists with machine guns to overrun the
Kenyan camp, torching tents and weapons stores, the Associated Press
reported.
Reuters quoted al-Shabaab as saying at least 66 Kenyans were killed.
Conclusions
The numbers are being disputed.
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Car and General reports FY Earnings EPS +192.105% here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 24.75
Total Shares Issued: 40103308.00
Market Capitalization: 992,556,873
EPS: 2.22
PE: 11.14
Franchise holder for leading automotive and engineering products.
FY Revenue 9.735788b vs. 9.929190b -1.948%
FY Cost of sales [8.152768b] vs. [8.304772b] -1.830%
FY Gross profit 1.583020b vs. 1.624418b -2.548%
FY Gain in fair value of investment properties 153.761m vs. 339.022m -54.646%
FY Selling & distribution costs [614.235m] vs. [631.512m] -2.736%
FY Administrative expenses [621.259m] vs. [619.130m] +0.344%
FY Finance costs [392.655m] vs. [369.172m] +6.361%
PBT 150.278m vs. 81.069m +85.370%
Taxation [61.406m] vs. 46.078m -233.265%
Profit for the year 88.872m vs. 127.147m -30.103%
Profit for the year attributable to owners of the parent 89.057m vs.
30.628m +190.770%
Profit for the year attributable to Non-controlling interests [0.185m]
vs. 96.519m -100.192%
EPS 2.22 vs. 0.76 +192.105%
Total equity 3.238539b vs. 3.021113b +7.197%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year 88.919m vs. 68.443m +29.917%
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