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Tuesday 31st of January 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts |
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"Home" by @warsan_shire via @SeekersHub H/T @qzafrica Africa |
no one leaves home unless home is the mouth of a shark you only run for the border when you see the whole city running as well
your neighbors running faster than you breath bloody in their throats the boy you went to school with who kissed you dizzy behind the old tin factory is holding a gun bigger than his body you only leave home when home won’t let you stay.37
no one leaves home unless home chases you fire under feet hot blood in your belly it’s not something you ever thought of doing until the blade burnt threats into your neck and even then you carried the anthem under your breath only tearing up your passport in an airport toilets sobbing as each mouthful of paper made it clear that you wouldn’t be going back.
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Bannon Is Given Security Role Usually Held for Generals Law & Politics |
It started with the doom-hued inauguration homily to “American carnage” in United States cities co-written by Mr. Bannon, followed a few days later by his “shut up” message to the news media. The week culminated with a blizzard of executive orders, mostly hatched by Mr. Bannon’s team and the White House policy adviser, Stephen Miller, aimed at disorienting the “enemy,” fulfilling campaign promises and distracting attention from Mr. Trump’s less than flawless debut.
But the defining moment for Mr. Bannon came Saturday night in the form of an executive order giving the rumpled right-wing agitator a full seat on the “principals committee” of the National Security Council — while downgrading the roles of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of national intelligence, who will now attend only when the council is considering issues in their direct areas of responsibilities. It is a startling elevation of a political adviser, to a status alongside the secretaries of state and defense, and over the president’s top military and intelligence advisers.
Susan E. Rice, President Barack Obama’s last national security adviser, called the arrangement “stone cold crazy” in a tweet posted Sunday.
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A weekend of chaos and conflict has produced one piece of clarity: Steve Bannon is the central force shaping Donald Trump's presidency. Law & Politics |
Panic set in Friday evening into Saturday, with people taken off international flights, refugees and visa holders detained at airports, and lawyers and protesters parachuting into the tumult after President Donald Trump’s executive order banning immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries. But it was the latest evidence that Trump was following through on the radical departure from US norms on immigration that he had promised throughout his campaign. Then, amid the outcry, the administration released a presidential memorandum Saturday evening reorganizing the National Security Council and thrusting Bannon, Trump’s chief strategist, onto the cabinet-level interagency group with more access than the director of national intelligence and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The move made it clear that the central figure on the White House staff, and one of the most powerful men in America, is now Bannon. And his fingerprints were all over Trump’s refugee ban and hardline immigration executive orders. And as Bannon emerges as central to the administration, the former Breitbart boss — who seems to enjoy controversy but avoids interviews — has also become the central target for Trump’s opposition. The top hashtag on Twitter for a time Sunday was: #StopPresidentBannon.
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CAN JARED AND IVANKA OUTRUN DONALD TRUMP'S SCANDALS? Vanity Fair Law & Politics |
Little more than a week into the Trump presidency, the timing of the Friday sunset seems to be growing increasingly important. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and West Wing adviser, has been positioned as something of a mollifying presence upon his mercurial boss. “I have a feeling that Jared’s going to do a great job. He’s going to do a great job. You’ll work with him,” Trump recently declared at his pre-inaugural gala to assorted well-wishers and friends from the business community. In a White House split between those seemingly loyal to the Republican Party (Reince Priebus, the former chairman of the R.N.C., now Trump’s chief of staff), and its rabid base (Breitbart chairman turned chief strategist Stephen Bannon), Kushner appeared to be a Valerie Jarrett type—a steady familiar voice who could suss out the signal from the noise.
Kushner, along with his wife, Ivanka Trump, is also an orthodox Jew who observes Shabbat. From sundown on Friday until sundown on Saturday, the couple abstains from technology and work. And early in the incipient Trump administration, that brief period has been unusually fraught. Last week, the president personally called the Park Service on the morning after his inauguration to inquire about the size of the crowds who came to watch him take the oath of office. He subsequently delivered a widely derided speech at C.I.A. headquarters that afternoon, during which he blathered on about the media’s treatment of him and his inaugural crowd size. He then sent his press secretary, Sean Spicer, into the briefing room to falsely claim that it was the largest audience for an inauguration in history. During the tumult, some noticed the conspicuous absence of Kushner’s allegedly calming presence. “He wasn’t rolling calls on Saturday when this happened,” one person close to Kushner told me last week. “To me, that’s not a coincidence.”
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We're going to take out 7 countries in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan & Iran.." General Wesley Clark Law & Politics |
It is worth noting that 6 out of these 7 countries (with the exception of Lebanon) identified by General Wesley Clark “to be taken out” are now the object of President Trump’s ban on Muslims’ entry to the US: Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, Iran and Yemen.
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The Future of Hollywood WHY HOLLYWOOD AS WE KNOW IT IS ALREADY OVER Vanity Fair International Trade |
Subsequently, newspaper advertising revenues fell from $67 billion in 2000 to $19.9 billion in 2014
Movie-theater attendance is down to a 19-year low, with revenues hovering slightly above $10 billion—or about what Amazon’s, Facebook’s, or Apple’s stock might move in a single day. DreamWorks Animation was sold to Comcast for a relatively meager $3.8 billion. Paramount was recently valued at about $10 billion, approximately the same price as when Sumner Redstone acquired it, more than 20 years ago, in a bidding war against Barry Diller. Between 2007 and 2011, overall profits for the big-five movie studios—Twentieth Century Fox, Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, and Disney—fell by 40 percent. Studios now account for less than 10 percent of their parent companies’ profits.
But the real threat isn’t China. It’s Silicon Valley. Hollywood, in its over-reliance on franchises, has ceded the vast majority of the more stimulating content to premium networks and over-the-top services such as HBO and Showtime, and, increasingly, digital-native platforms such as Netflix and Amazon. These companies also have access to analytics tools that Hollywood could never fathom, and an allergy to its inefficiency. Few have seen the change as closely as Diller himself, who went from running Paramount and Fox to building his own tech empire, IAC. “I don’t know why anyone would want a movie company today,” Diller said at Vanity Fair’s New Establishment Summit in October. “They don’t make movies; they make hats and whistles.”
The real threat was that Netflix was doing it all with the power of computing. Soon after House of Cards’ remarkable debut, the late David Carr presciently noted in the Times, “The spooky part . . . ? Executives at the company knew it would be a hit before anyone shouted ‘action.’ Big bets are now being informed by Big Data.”
Four years after the debut of House of Cards, Netflix, which earned an astounding 54 Emmy nominations in 2016, is spending $6 billion a year on original content. Amazon isn’t far behind. Apple, Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat are all experimenting with original content of their own. Microsoft owns one of the most profitable products in your living room, the Xbox, a gaming platform that is also a hub for TV, film, and social media. As The Hollywood Reporter noted this year, traditional TV executives are petrified that Netflix and its ilk will continue to pour money into original shows and films and continue to lap up the small puddle of creative talent in the industry. In July, at a meeting of the Television Critics Association in Beverly Hills, FX Networks’ president, John Landgraf, said, “I think it would be bad for storytellers in general if one company was able to seize a 40, 50, 60 percent share in storytelling.”
So far, Netflix has merely managed to get DVDs to people more quickly (via streaming), disrupt the business plan of the traditional once-a-week, ad-supported television show, and help solidify the verb “binge” in today’s culture.
And it’s only a matter of time—perhaps a couple of years—before movies will be streamed on social-media sites. For Facebook, it’s the natural evolution. The company, which has a staggering 1.8 billion monthly active users, literally a quarter of the planet, is eventually going to run out of new people it can add to the service. Perhaps the best way to continue to entice Wall Street investors to buoy the stock—Facebook is currently the world’s seventh-largest company by market valuation—will be to keep eyeballs glued to the platform for longer periods of time. What better way to do that than a two-hour film?
The speed with which technologies can change an industry today is truly staggering. Uber, which is eight years old, is worth more than 80 percent of the companies on the Fortune 500 list. When Silicon Valley goes after a new industry, it does so with a punch to the gut.
There are other, more dystopian theories, which predict that film and video games will merge, and we will become actors in a movie, reading lines or being told to “look out!” as an exploding car comes hurtling in our direction, not too dissimilar from Mildred Montag’s evening rituals in Fahrenheit 451. When we finally get there, you can be sure of two things. The bad news is that many of the people on the set of a standard Hollywood production won’t have a job anymore. The good news, however, is that we’ll never be bored again.
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Black Ops, alternate facts and damn lies: The ANC's escalating credibility crisis Daily Maverick Africa |
As more details emerged at the weekend about the covert operation to pump up the ANC’s election campaign and spread fake news about opposition parties, the party continued to deny knowledge and involvement. It has “nothing to do with the ANC” was spokesperson Zizi Kodwa’s response to a report of a secret recording implicating ANC general manager Ignatius Jacobs in the war room operation to influence public opinion during the election period. This is not only about the criminal acts and big personalities being shamed. It is also about the erosion of trust and further diminishing of the ANC’s credibility.
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Soon You Could Buy Shares in Nando's Africa |
The company operates restaurants selling peri-peri chicken in countries including the U.K., the U.S., Australia, India, Malaysia and Qatar. Nando’s started in South Africa in 1987 after entrepreneurs Robbie Brozin and Fernando “Nando” Duarte convinced Enthoven to invest in the Portuguese-styled chain. The company traded on Johannesburg’s stock exchange until 2003 when managers bought more shares and delisted it.
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The combined order books for the five-, 10- and 30-year bonds exceeded $13.5 billion Africa |
Egypt sold $4 billion of Eurobonds in three tranches on Tuesday, raising twice as much as targeted and at lower yields than initially expected.
The combined order books for the five-, 10- and 30-year bonds exceeded $13.5 billion, which bankers said should mean demand is there for further bond sales.
"If (Egypt) decides in 2017 to issue more external debt it will be able to do so because (Tuesday's) issuance was covered 3.5 times," said one banker, who declined to be named because he is not authorised to speak to media.
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Mozambique fell prey to the promise of fabulous wealth - now it can't pay nurses Africa |
Mozambique’s £1.6bn borrowing spree has caused a fiscal crisis that means interest on loans, civil service new year bonuses and other government bills was not paid this month.
Four years ago, with one of Africa’s largest natural gas reserves in development and visions of fabulous wealth before them, Mozambique’s leaders took secret loans worth $2bn. These were organised by the London offices of two major European banks, Credit Suisse and the Russian state-owned bank VTB, the conduct of whom was sufficiently questionable that they are now being investigated by financial authorities in the UK, Switzerland and the US.
Mozambique debt crisis could be first sign of global financial shockwave
The money was for tuna fishing, maritime security and weapons to fight Renamo rebels; according to Christine Lagarde, director general of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), some if it was also used corruptly.
But gas prices collapsed and the development of the gas fields was delayed. Last year, when it became obvious there was no money to pay, the loan package became public.
In keeping the loans secret, the government lied to its own parliament, as well as to the IMF and donors (including Britain), who immediately reduced aid and lending. That exacerbated the economic crisis, forcing an austerity programme.
There was a huge devaluation of the local currency, the metical, and two weeks ago it was announced that inflation last year was 25%. The austerity package means the government is delaying payments to its suppliers; last week, it announced it would not make any interest payments on the debt.
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message sent by the Kulbiyow attack is loud and clear: Al-Shabaab are still a force to be reckoned with. Kenyan Economy |
While the battle rages in Somalia, in Kenya the battle lines ahead of the election are being drawn, and Somalia was always going to be a major point of difference between the ruling party and the opposition. Al-Shabaab are making it harder and harder for the ruling party to defend its position.
Al-Shabaab have always been canny propagandists, and their latest attack on Kulbiyow is no exception. While the details of the attack remain sketchy, there is no doubt that its impact is already being felt in Mogadishu, Nairobi and Addis Ababa.
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Bounty Brands has put on ice plans to acquire a Kenyan firm as a springboard to the East African market, instead opting to ship in supplies. Kenyan Economy |
The Johannesburg bourse-bound firm now says it has opted to make acquisitions in Europe; and has resorted to directly supplying its goods to Kenya through a distributor.
“Our business model normally includes the acquisition of successful businesses in our target countries to serve as a platform for expansion, but we have found the pricing of such businesses to be prohibitive in Kenya and have found better value in central and eastern Europe,” Stefan Rabe, Bounty’s chief executive said in an interview.
Bounty has in the past year made a string of acquisitions valued at more than 1.2 billion South African rands (about Sh9.2 billion) including Liberty Foods, food supplier Rieses Food Imports, trash bag maker Tuffy, household cleaning accessories firm Goldenmarc, and fashion retailer Footwear Trading which owns franchises for brands such as Diesel, Levis, Jeep and Fila.
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German Deutsche Bank closes down NBK accounts over suspected money laundering Kenyan Economy |
Deutsche Bank, which is German global banking and financial services company, had in April last year notified NBK of their intention to shut down correspondent banking relationship with the Kenyan based bank. Contacted, NBK admitted closure of accounts but denied money laundering allegations. “We got a notice from Deutsche bank informing us of its intention to terminate this relationship by April 2016. Deutsche Bank did not indicate the reason for terminating this relationship in the said letter. Through our robust Anti-money laundering (AML) and Know your customer (KYC) processes and systems, we are not in the know of any money laundering attempted or perpetrated through the bank,” NBK told Weekend Business in a statement.
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Uchumi reports FY Earnings FY EPS [7.77] here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 2.95 Total Shares Issued: 364959616.00 Market Capitalization: 1,076,630,867 EPS: -7.77 PE:
One of the main Kenyan supermarket chains.
FY EARNINGS Through 30th June 2016 versus through June 2015
FY Net sales 6.427143b vs. 12.954581b -50.387% FY Cost of sales [5.450199b] vs. [10.816813b] -49.614% FY Gross profit 976.944m vs. 2.137768b -54.301% FY Other income 1.311470b vs. 2.588378 -49.332% FY Operating expenses [3.291832b] vs. [4.816551b] -31.656% FY Profit/ [loss] from operating expenses [1.980362b] vs. [2.228173b] -11.122% FY Provisional write offs [466.782b] vs. [1.049037b] -55.504% FY Profit/ [loss] before taxation [2.671497b] vs. [3.513064b] +23.955% FY Income tax credit/ [expense] [165.235m] vs. 91.704m -280.183% FY Profit/ [loss] after taxation [2.836732b] vs. [3.421360b] +17.088% EPS [7.77] vs. [9.37] -17.076% Shareholders’ Equity [2.097377b] vs. 0.739355b -383.677% No dividend
Company Commentary
performance was impacted by the closure of non-performing branches in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya and supply chain challenges. Group losses reduced by 17% from 3.4b versus 2.8b in 2017 Search for a strategic investor is ongoing
Auditors Opinion
The above financial information have been extracted from the financial statement which were audited by KPMG Kenya who issued a disclaimer of opinion on the group financial statements due to lack of audit evidence on foreign subsidiaries up to the date of loss of control and a qualified opinion on company financial statements with regard to lack of audit evidence on Property and Equipment's opening balances.
Conclusions
Obviously a big scaling back evidenced in the -50.387% decline in FY Net Sales. You would have thought that there is a big Opportunity still in the supermarket space.
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Uchumi says Losses declined by Sh600M, KPMG issues Qualified Opinion @kenyanwalstreet Kenyan Economy |
However, Uchumi’s auditors, KPMG Kenya issued a disclaimer of opinion on the group financial statements due to lack of audit evidence on foreign subsidiaries up to the date of loss of control and a qualified opinion on the company’s financial statements due to lack of audit evidence on property and equipments opening balances.
A Disclaimer of Opinion is issued in either of the following cases: When the auditor is not independent or when there is conflict of interest. When the limitation on scope is imposed by client, as a result the auditor is unable to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence.
A qualified opinion is a written statement by a certified public accountant in an audit report, stating that the financial statements of a client are fairly presented, except for a specified issue.
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Eveready East Africa reports FY EPS [0.98] Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 1/- Closing Price: 2.35 Total Shares Issued: 210000000.00 Market Capitalization: 493,500,000 EPS: -0.98 PE:
Kenyan battery manufacturer.
FY Earnings through 30th September 2016 versus through 30th September 2015
FY Sales 553.311m vs. 1.124582b -50.799% FY Cost of sales [425.016m] vs. [905.915m] -53.084% FY Gross profit 128.295m vs. 218.667m -41.329% FY Other income 4.872m vs. 75.929m -93.583% FY Overhead expenses [296.782m] vs. [405.734m] -26.853% FY Finance costs [72.368m] vs. [50.267m] +43.967% FY Loss before tax [218.962m] vs. [161.405m] +35.660% FY Loss for the year from continuing operations [171.824m] vs. [182.075m] -5.630% FY Loss for the year from discontinued operations [34.681m] vs. [19.434m] +78.455% FY Loss for the year [206.505m] vs. [201.509m] -2.479% EPS [0.98] vs. [0.96] -2.083% Total Equity 486.578m vs. 682.489m -28.705% Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year [0.731m] vs. [285.519m] +99.744% No dividend
Company Commentary
Company experienced a challenging out of stock situation occasioned by lack of supplies from our global supplier of carbon zinc and alkaline batteries which adversely affected supply for a considerable period during the Year under review. -51% decline in FY Revenues closed operations in Uganda Sell the Nakuru property in order to clear the debt and provide sufficient working capital to support the distribution business. No Dividend
Conclusions
Should exit the battery business and return the surplus [land sales] to shareholders
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N.S.E Today |
Kenyan economic growth is expected to slip to 5.7 percent in 2017 from about 5.9 percent in 2016, the central bank said on Tuesday. The Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Monday. The Shilling is steady just below 104.00. ''We are not reckless in minimizing the volatility of the exchange rate, we are on both sides, it's a zero sum game ~ CBK Governor'' tweeted @kenyanwalstreet. The Nairobi All Share snapped a losing streak which had seen the Index slump -9.06% in 2017 through this morning and fall every session in January except 13th Jan through 16th Jan. The All Share rebounded +0.799%. The Nairobi NSE20 Index which was -12.45% in 2017 through this morning and at more than 8 year lows firmed 4.63 points to close at 2794.27. Equity Turnover was 406.706m The Securities Exchange is in fact in a disequilibrium. Those who have a 12 month time horizon should make out like Bandits.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom rallied +0.82% to close at 18.50 and traded 5.451m shares. Safaricom has rebounded +3.064% since closing at a 2017 Low of 17.95 last week.
Uchumi reported its delayed FY Earnings through June 2016. Uchumi reported a FY Loss of 2.836b which represented a +17.088% improvement versus the previous FY. Uchumi said '' performance was impacted by the closure of non-performing branches in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya and supply chain challenges'' Uchumi said that the ''Search for a strategic investor is ongoing.'' KPMG Kenya issued a disclaimer of opinion ''on the group financial statements due to lack of audit evidence on foreign subsidiaries up to the date of loss of control and a qualified opinion on company financial statements with regard to lack of audit evidence on Property and Equipment's opening balances'' FY Turnover slumped -50.387% as Uchumi scaled back. You have thought that there still is a big opportunity in supermarket retailing. Uchumi retreated -3.38%.
Kenya Airways issued a Q3 2016 October-December 2016 Update, which confirmed a +4.8% uptick in Passenger numbers and a 4% increase in Cabin Factor to 72%. Kenya Airways eased -1.05%.
TPS Serena rebounded +7.61% to close at 20.50 and traded 46,600 shares. TPS Serena is back to unchanged for 2017 and probably got a fillip from the Passenger numbers released by Kenya Airways today.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
KCB Group ticked -1.08% lower to close at 23.00 and traded 1.947m shares. KCB has retreated -20.00% in 2017 and is badly oversold. I expect KCB to positively surprise Shareholders with a handsome dividend and at 23.00 it is now time for Investors to step up. Equity Bank rallied +3.191% to close at 24.25 and was trading shares as high as 25.50 +8.51% at the finish line. Trading was thin with just 25,800 shares traded.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL rallied +1.818% to close at 224.00 and traded 569,100 shares. EABL reported H1 Earnings Friday last week where EABL reported a -6.286% decline in H1 Net Revenue and a -31.291% decline in H1 EPS largely because of a non-repeat of an extraordinary gain taken in the previous FY. EABL is +2.28% since releasing its Earnings.
BAT surged +4.912% to close at 897.00 and traded 37,800 shares.
Eveready East Africa reported a Full Year Loss after Tax of 206.505m not far off the previous FY Loss of 201.509m. Eveready saw Full Year Sales sink -50.799% to 553.311m and skipped a FY dividend. The Company said it ''experienced a challenging out of stock situation occasioned by lack of supplies from our global supplier,'' closed its operations in Uganda and is set to ''Sell the Nakuru property in order to clear the debt and provide sufficient working capital to support the distribution business'' I would argue it is time to consider exiting the battery business and returning the surplus [land sales] to Shareholders. Eveready closed unchanged at 2.35 and is unchanged in 2017.
Crown Berger traded 300 shares all at 45.00 +7.14%
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