home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 04th of January 2017
 
Morning
Africa

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

read more



Can France hold corrupt African leaders to account? @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory Video
Africa


The son of Equatorial Guinea's president has been accused of widespread
corruption and money laundering, but he is not being tried for it in his
home country of Equatorial Guinea.
Instead, Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue has been prosecuted in
the US, is being investigated in Switzerland, and was tried in absentia in
France on Monday.
Obiang is known for his taste for luxury cars, mansions, and expensive
works of art.
French prosecutors say the items were bought using illegal money - most of
it in cash.
They say Obiang stole $115 million from the government while he was
Agriculture Minister from 2004 to 2011.
They are specifically trying him for property he bought in France,
including a Parisian villa worth more than $100 million.
Obiang has always said he earned his money legally.
The trial is a major shift in French policy, which has long ignored corrupt
African leaders who buy property in France.
So, what's behind the crackdown?

Presenter: Laura Kyle
Guests:
Florent Geel - Africa Director at the International Federation for Human
Rights
Aly-Khan Satchu - Emerging Markets Economist
Antony Goldman - African affairs specialist and former Senior Africa
Analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Al Jazeera News

read more





Investors need to have their wits around them @TheStarkenya
Africa


2016 was surely an extraordinary once in a life-time type of year. Big
headline events like Brexit and the election of Donald J Trump spoke to a
new normal. It certainly felt like the disruption of an old normal. The
intersection and correlation between politics and economics was plain for
all to see. The pound moved close to 20 big figures in a window of 24 hours
around the Brexit vote. Later on October 7, the pound flash crashed close
to 10 per cent. These kinds of price moves are normally associated with
frontier market currencies. The FX markets are now driven ‘’by lightening
quick, complex, computerised trading programs’’ and these ‘’algorithmic
models pick up the same ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ signals, magnifying price swings’’
(Reuters).

Cultural theorist Paul Virilio said: “Wealth is the hidden side of speed
and speed the hidden side of wealth.”

The best-performing currency worldwide was a crypto-currency BITCOIN which
rallied a might 120 per cent through 2016. BITCOIN appears to have become a
proxy for Chinese capital flight.

I draw this Tweet from Christine Lu ‏@christinelu December 30, 2016, to
your attention: ‘’If you’re raising money from Chinese investors in 2017,
and that money isn’t already sitting outside of China, then have fun
signing MoUs!’’

Let’s now turn our gaze to Africa, which is growing at more than 20-year
lows. Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi bit the bullet and devalued the
Egypt pound – the pound was -56.00 per cent in 2016. Nigeria, which
overtook South Africa as SSA’s biggest economy a while back only to fall
back again and cede top dog position again to South Africa, saw its naira
slump -36.68 per cent in 2016. The naira remains the central paradox for
the Buhari regime. It has a lot further to fall in 2017. The Mozambique
metical closed 2016 -33.27 per cent and Angola was at -18.96 per cent.
Investors need to avoid these kinds of situations at all costs.
Interestingly, the South African rand posted an 11 per cent return just
behind the Zambia kwacha at +11.96 per cent. The shilling finished out the
year trading at 102.50 versus the dollar. Currencies like the South
Sudanese pound and the Burundi franc cratered. From a currency perspective,
Africa is a landscape littered with unexploded FX Ordinance. Zimbabwe, of
course, is experimenting with its ‘’bond notes’’. It is predicted and
predictable that the Bond Note Jig is up sometime in 2017.

The equity markets in Africa were led by Namibia which returned +34.13 per
cent in 2016. South Africa was lifted by the currency gain to register an
11 per cent return for investors. Nigeria posted -41.4 per cent, Lusaka
-16.53 per cent and Nairobi just above -12 per cent when currency adjusted.
Investors need to have their wits about them.

Home Thoughts

read more






















All Roads Lead to #Aleppo #Syria via @jonleeanderson New Yorker
Law & Politics


With the evacuation of the last of its armed rebels and their families,
last month, the Syrian city of Aleppo is once again in the hands of the
Assad government. Aleppo had a prewar population of more than two million
people; it was not only Syria’s largest city and its industrial powerhouse
but had an iconic place as one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited
cities, with a history dating back some eight thousand years. Before the
war, Aleppo’s wealth of ancient buildings and its cosmopolitan mix of sects
and peoples—Sunni Arabs, Shiites, Kurds, Turkmen, Alawites, Circassians,
Chechens, Greeks, Assyrian and Armenian Christians, and even a few
Jews—made it a matchless place in the modern Middle East. It remains to be
seen what, of all that, has survived.

But Aleppo’s fall is a momentous milestone, and probably marks the
beginning of the end for Syria’s myriad rebel factions, five and a half
years after their uprising began.

The rebels made a cell-phone video of the execution, in which several
fighters fired hundreds of bullets at the four men, who had been lined up
against a schoolyard wall, during a forty-five-second spree. The wall was
painted with large pictures of cartoon characters, including Mickey Mouse
and SpongeBob SquarePants.

The Western leaders who once aided and abetted the Arab Spring as a vehicle
for democratic change in the Middle East—Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron
come to mind—are either gone from the political stage or, like Barack
Obama, are making their final exit.

Thanks, in large measure, to such Western missteps, the Russian leader
Vladimir Putin has gone from being a bit player on the sidelines of the
Middle East to becoming its maximum power broker. When Russian warplanes
bombed rebel-held Aleppo’s last functioning hospital, a few weeks ago, it
seemed obvious that the end was close.

Assad said, “I think after liberating Aleppo we will say that not only the
Syrian situation but also the regional and international situation is
different.”

Indeed, partly because of the Syrian conflict and its ongoing fallout, the
future of the European Union itself is now in question. With the mass
influx of refugees has come an upsurge in anti-immigrant sentiment in
Europe that mirrors that of the American alt-right in its bigotry and
sectarian hatred, especially toward Muslims. The killing of civilians—in
Europe and elsewhere (Tunisia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey)—by Islamist
terrorists has, at the same time, become a terrifyingly frequent
occurrence. Throughout the West, a mood of ugly xenophobia is spreading.
Thus far, it has given us Brexit and Trump. In the upcoming French
elections, will Marine Le Pen be the victor? Will the next terrorist
outrage in Germany be the end of Angela Merkel and usher in a mood of
social intolerance?

As the new year begins, many fateful questions hang in the balance, which,
somehow, lead us back to Aleppo.

read more


19-DEC-2016 :: The Meaning of Aleppo @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Aleppo is an ancient metropolis, and according to Wikipedia, one of the
oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world – it may have been
inhabited since the sixth millennium BC. Such a long history is attributed
to its strategic location as a trading centre midway between the
Mediterranean Sea and Mesopotamia (modern Iraq). Aleppo was always a mosaic
of peoples and religions, with Muslims, Christians and a large Armenian
community. Aleppo was always a symbol of a secular Syria and probably
informs us of why it became such a potent symbol for the Jihadists, many of
whom were ported straight out of Benghazi.

Aleppo is the moment when the trend changed, and Russia and Iran are now in
the ascendancy; and those in their palaces in Riyadh, Doha and Istanbul
need to appreciate how fluid this moment is, and how exposed they are now.

read more




For Dollar Traders, the Most Important Signal Comes Roaring Back
International Trade


If you’re a dollar bull and you’re getting a little nervous about the
sustainability of the greenback’s rip-roaring rally, take comfort in
knowing that a fundamental gauge of the currency’s worth is on your side.

The barometer is the real-yield differential. Sounds esoteric, but at the
heart of it is the interest earned on dollar-denominated fixed-rate assets,
compared to those issued in other currencies, after adjusting for inflation
expectations. U.S. real yields have more than doubled against Japan’s since
the November presidential election. At the same time, the positive
correlation between that gap and the dollar-yen exchange rate has
strengthened to 0.5 from as low as 0.1 last year. (A reading of 1 means
that gauges move in lockstep; minus 1 means they move in opposite
directions.)

read more






Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0406
Dollar Index 103.31
Japan Yen 118.07
Swiss Franc 1.0277
Pound 1.2244
Aussie 0.7238
India Rupee 68.215
South Korea Won 1205.65
Brazil Real 3.2652
Egypt Pound 18.2420
South Africa Rand 13.7452

read more







Emerging-Market Currencies Fall as Mexico Peso, Turkey Lira Sink
Emerging Markets


Emerging-market currencies declined as Mexico’s peso and Turkey’s lira
slumped to record lows. Stocks rose to the highest level in three weeks as
Chinese factories and services data bolstered confidence in the world’s
second-largest economy.

Mexico’s peso weakened beyond 21 per dollar after Ford Motor Co. decided to
scrap plans to build a $1.6 billion plant in the Latin American nation and
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump criticized General Motors Co. for
building a version of the Chevrolet Cruze compact there. The Turkish lira
dropped 1.4 percent after a report showing inflation accelerated more than
estimated in December.

read more








"We've just gone on a borrowing spree. Borrowing and borrowing and borrowing," said Mr Akufo-Addo. @FT
Africa


Nana Akufo-Addo will finally be sworn in as Ghana’s president on January 7 after emerging victorious in his third bid to reach Flagstaff house, the leader’s official residence.

“We’re going to do whatever we can to improve the business atmosphere. Because we think that as soon as we can get the Ghanaian economy growing again, that is the weapon we will have for managing the debt.”

Mr Akufo-Addo said he would concentrate on implementing corporate tax cuts, eliminating tax on the raw materials and machinery needed by industry and helping farmers to diversify. While neighbouring Ivory Coast earned $11bn-$12bn from a variety of crops, including cotton, coffee and palm oil, Ghana earned only about $2bn from cocoa, he said, adding: “We want that kind of diversification.”

read more





Mr Khan, however, maintained that the GDP remains "firm," shilling is "Well-behaved" and inflation is "within bounds". Standard
Africa


Although Parliament passed law capping interest rates, the expected benefits have not trickled down to the public and businesses. “Private sector credit growth has retreated about 1,500 basis points over a 12 month period and this is going to be one of the negative spill-over effects of the Interest rate capping Bill. I am afraid it increasingly looks like the Executive will have to reverse this and that the speed of reversal is key,” said Investment analyst Aly Khan Satchu.

Mr Khan, however, maintained that the GDP remains “firm,” shilling is “Well-behaved” and inflation is “within bounds”.

read more



Nakumatt takes Sh500m loan ahead of share sale @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


The transaction was disclosed by investment advisory firm Dry Associates,
which arranged the private placement last quarter.

The firm said Nakumatt went to the market seeking Sh500 million through an
insured loan and got all it wanted, signalling investors’ confidence in its
ability to repay the debt.

The new loan comes ahead of Nakumatt’s plan to raise billions of shillings
from the sale of a 25 per cent stake to an undisclosed investor.

South Africa’s Global Credit Ratings (GCR) recently assigned Nakumatt a
long-term rating of BB- down from BB, indicating a weakened ability to meet
outstanding financial obligations.

“The rating downgrade reflects the notable deterioration in Nakumatt’s
credit risk profile. Growth of the business has been highly leveraged, with
the ever-growing working capital and capex requirements having been largely
funded through short -term debt,” said GCR in the credit report.

The rating agency noted that Nakumatt’s debt burden had quadrupled in the
last four years to Sh18 billion up from Sh4.7 billion in 2012 “placing
unduly high pressure on the group’s gearing and liquidity position, with
funding limits having largely been reached.”

Nakumatt’s gross sales grew by nearly a tenth to Sh51.6 billion in the year
ended February 2015 compared to Sh48 billion a year earlier.

Surging finance costs, however, ate into the supermarket’s earnings-- with
gross profit plunging to Sh305 million in the review period.

read more






 
 
N.S.E Today


The Chinese Yuan had its biggest single day Up-Move for 12 months.
Markets are extremely worried that China is going to introduce further
restrictions on its Citizens in moving money out of China.
The Digital Currencies like bitcoin +126% in 2016 have become a bull
Proxy for Chinese capital flight worries.
Reuters has reported that Kenya's Central Bank sold dollars after the
KES weakened to 103.10/20.
Reuters reported that ''At 0723 GMT, commercial banks quoted the
shilling at 103.10/20 to the dollar, compared with Tuesday's close of
102.80/103.00. The shilling last traded at its present levels in
mid-October 2015, when it hit a low of 103.50/60 on Oct. 13''
The Nairobi All Share fell back 0.34 points to close at 132.27
The NSE20 closed 12.11 points lower at 3194.13.
Equity Turnover clocked 356.935m



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 19.00 and traded 2.623m shares. The
Supply has thinned out at these levels signalling upwards price action
is expected in short order.

Nation Media which got badly hammered through 2016 retreated -5.37% to
close at 88.00 and marginally above 2009 Lows.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


BRITAM which rallied +26% on the opening session of 2017 and on the
news that the IFC was set to snaffle up a 10.37% stake in BRITAM, fell
back -7.93% to close at 11.60 and traded 1.161m shares worth 13.510m
[1,239% more shares than the previous session]. The IFC is subscribing
for the shares at 15.85 a share, which is substantial premium to the
current price.
The IFC BRITAM news positively spilled over into other counters in the
Insurance segment.
Jubilee Insurance traded 43,000 shares all at 490.00 and unchanged.
Kenya Re firmed +1.11% to close at 22.75 and traded 605,300 shares.

Standard Chartered PLC which was the only Banking stock to appreciate
in 2016 pushed +1.06% higher to close at 190.00 and traded shares as
high as 196.00 +4.26%. Supply is thin and Buyers outpaced Sellers by
more than 10 to 1.
Barclays Bank rose +1.71% to close at 8.90 and after a steep sell-off
in 2016 it looks a value proposition.
KCB Group was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
firmed +0.86% to close at 29.25 and on solid trading of 3.662m shares
worth 107.122m.
COOP Bank rallied a muscular +3.46% to close at 13.45 and on heavy
volume of 3.007m shares.

Centum
rallied +2.64% to close at 38.75.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


“The Chairman of the Kenya Power board of directors Kenneth Marende
will announce the new acting managing director of the company this
afternoon following the exit of its current CEO, Ben Chumo” the firm
said in an update. KPLC rallied +2.5% to close at 8.20 and was trading
at 8.55 +6.88% session highs at the closing Bell. Trading was light
just 14,800 shares and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 15 to 1.
Todays Price Action was therefore, interesting.

KenGen announced that The MD Albert Mugo's contract had been extended
for another 12 months. This was a good decision. KenGen eased 5 cents
to close at 5.70 and is egregiously undervalued.

KenolKobil
[which was a bull Outlier in 2016 posting a Total Return
just under 50%] closed unchanged at 15.00 and on heavy duty volume
action of 6.144m shares worth 92.168m.

EABL was marked down -3.33% to close at 232.00 on real light volume.
--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
January 2017
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.