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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

That same night he left for Russia. The journey did not seem as
terrible as he had expected. His imagination triumphed over reality.
The farther he got from Paris the more vivid and the closer did the
objects he was leaving for ever present themselves to him.

 Without realizing it, he reached the Russian frontier. Autumn had
already set in, but in spite of the bad state of the roads he was
driven with the speed of the wind, and on the morning of the
seventeenth day of his journey he arrived at Krasnoye Selo, through
which at that time the highway ran.

 There were still another twenty-eight versts to Petersburg. While the
horses were being changed Ibrahim went into the post-house. In a
corner, a tall man wearing a green caftan and with a clay pipe in his
mouth, was reading the Hamburg newspapers, leaning with his elbows on
the table. Hearing somebody come in, he looked up.

 "Ah, Ibrahim!" he cried, rising from the bench. " How are you, my godson?"

 Ibrahim, recognizing Peter, rushed forward to him in delight, but
respectfully stopped short. The Tsar drew near, embraced him and
kissed him on the forehead.

 "I was told you were coming," said Peter, "and came here to meet you.
I've been waiting for you since yesterday." Ibrahim could not find
words to express his gratitude. "Order your carriage to follow on
behind," the Tsar continued; "you come and sit with me, and we'll go
home."

A mysterious signal that has confounded scientists for years has been
traced to a spot in the sky more than 3 billion light-years away.
Almost a decade after the first fast radio burst (FRB) was discovered,
an international team of researchers has pinpointed the origin of one
such signal as a dwarf galaxy in the pentagon-shaped constellation
Auriga.
Scientists originally thought the signal -- sporadic bursts of radio
waves -- was coming from within the Milky Way itself, or from our
closest galactic neighbors, but a new report in the journal Nature
confirms it emanates from a tiny galaxy 1% the mass of our own.
"These radio flashes must have enormous amounts of energy to be
visible from over 3 billion light-years away," Cornell University
researcher Shami Chatterjee said in a statement.

Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one
of his short stories:
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual-paradigm officers
at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy.

“It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the
Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out
the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very
small.” ― Neil Armstrong

A couple of years ago, when Coldplay’s Chris Martin was going through
a divorce from the actress Gwyneth Paltrow and feeling down, a friend
gave him a book to lift his spirits. It was a collection of poetry by
Jalaluddin Rumi, the thirteenth-century Persian poet, translated by
Coleman Barks.

Rumi is often described as the best-selling poet in the United States.

Rumi was born in the early thirteenth century, in what is now
Afghanistan. He later settled in Konya, in present-day Turkey, with
his family.

Rumi continued his theological education in Syria, where he studied
the more traditional legal codes of Sunni Islam, and later returned to
Konya as a seminary teacher. It was there that he met an elder
traveller, Shams-i-Tabriz, who became his mentor. The nature of the
intimate friendship between the two is much debated, but Shams,
everyone agrees, had a lasting influence on Rumi’s religious practice
and his poetry.

Rumi built a large following in cosmopolitan Konya, incorporating
Sufis, Muslim literalists and theologians, Christians, and Jews, as
well as the local Sunni Seljuk rulers.

Conclusions

“Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again , come ,
come.”

McCain, after his suggestion that the Russian role was historic in
nature, quickly added that the point of the hearings was “not to
question the results of the election.” In one of his first questions
to Clapper, McCain said that if the Russians had been successful “in
changing the results of an election, which none of us believe they
were”—he drew that word out, into what sounded like a cross between a
purr and a warning, and then continued—“that would have to constitute
an attack on the United States of America because of the effects if
they had succeeded, would you agree with that?”

Conclusions

I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal.

The first thing is plausible deniability (and some folks here at home
need to remember those words).

The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way

An Example of this was Assange's comment that Russia did not give
Wikileaks the hacked information - His was a very Linear response.

Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted,
Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal.

With Putin’s background as a career KGB officer, he takes a particular
interest in operations dealing with that organization’s specialties of
disinformation and manipulation. The KGB is called the FSB these days,
a makeover that made sense after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991,
but under Putin it is as aggressive as ever in its mission of
infiltrating and destabilizing the West.

The Russian meddling in the 2016 election documented by the Obama
administration last week relied on partisan enmity to disregard its
origins and the eagerness of American news outlets to take their cues
from social media by turning stolen emails into daily headlines about
their trivial content. Editors and algorithms designed to maximize
social sharing were woefully unprepared for a coordinated and
well-funded propaganda assault.

Hacking is an ideal new front in this type of shadow war. It’s
difficult to trace and, like terrorist attacks, cyberwar has a very
high impact-to-cost ratio.

Unfortunately, the United States and Putin’s other main target, the
European Union, are proving unable to defend themselves from Putin’s
hybrid war and unwilling to respond forcefully once attacked. The
United States and Europe possess overwhelming economic and military
advantages, but they’re being pushed around by Putin because they are
unwilling to use them — or even threaten to use them — and he knows
it. Putin grows bolder with each victory, and what greater success
could he achieve than influencing the American election? Even if the
Russian hacking and propaganda onslaught were not decisive in
installing the most blatantly pro-Russian major-party candidate in
U.S. history, that goal was accomplished nonetheless, making Putin
look like a big global player again.

We live in a world of lies. And we always have lived in a world of lies.

Just take a look at the wreckage of the Middle East with its history
of people’s popular republics and its hateful dictators. They feast on
dishonesty, although they all – bar the late Muammar al-Gaddafi –
demand regular elections to make-believe their way back to power.

Now, I suppose, it is we who have regular elections based on lies. So
maybe Trump and the Arab autocrats will get on rather well. Trump
already likes Field Marshal/President al-Sissi of Egypt, and he’s
already got a golf course in Dubai. That he deals in lies, that he
manufactures facts, should make him quite at home in the Middle East.
Misogyny, bullying, threats to political opponents, authoritarianism,
tyranny, torture, sneers at minorities: it’s part and parcel of the
Arab world.

And look at Israel. The new US ambassador-to-be – who might as well be
the Israeli ambassador to the US – can’t wait to move the American
embassy to Jerusalem. He seems to feel more antagonism towards the
Jewish left in America than the Palestinians who claim East Jerusalem
as a capital and whose state he has no interest in. Will Trump enrage
the Arabs? Or will he get away with a little domestic rearrangement of
the Israel embassy on the grounds that the Gulf Arabs, at least, know
that Israel’s anti-Shiism – against Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – fits
in rather well with the Sunni potentates who’ve been funding Isis and
Jabhat al-Nusrah and all the other jolly jihadis?

I’ve never accepted the nonsense about Nazism and the American right.
Trump is not Hitler, although there is a kind of theatrical fascism
about his performance. He’s more buffoon than satanic, more Duce than
Fuehrer. Cesare Rossi, an early collaborator of Mussolini, once
described his leader as moving quickly “from cynicism to idealism,
from impulsiveness to caution, generosity to cruelty... moderation to
intransigence. It was as though he never knew his genuine self and was
always striving after some counterfeit impersonation.” Could there be
a better description of Trump?

In the last 5 years:
8 falls of 20% or more
20 falls of 15% or more
38 falls of 10% or more

Euro 1.0581
Dollar Index 101.68
Japan Yen 116.05
Swiss Franc 1.0117
Pound 1.2381
Aussie 0.7319
India Rupee 67.855
South Korea Won 1191.53
Brazil Real 3.1991
Egypt Pound 18.0715
South Africa Rand 13.6402

The dollar’s biggest two-month rally against the yen in two decades
came to an abrupt halt Thursday, with the greenback slumping as much
as 1.7 percent. Several triggers fueled the slide, including China’s
central bank muscling into the funding market to support the yuan, as
well as improving economic data from China and Europe juxtaposed with
U.S. figures suggesting the job market may be softening.

In their fifth week of training, women hired as flight attendants at
Emirates Airline spend a day in Dubai with Pamela Mizzi. A makeup
artist from Malta who spent 12 years in the sky herself, Mizzi greets
the students in a windowless instruction space about 20 feet across,
lined on three sides by mirrors divided into vanities by bright
roundels of light, like an old-timey dressing room. Her job is to
teach the trainees how Emirates expects them to look.

Female cabin crew, referred to invariably as “girls,” are to tie their
hair back in tight buns, preferably secured by a scrunchie in
Emirates-brand red. For makeup, a seven-step process is recommended,
starting with foundation and concealer, then moving on to lipstick,
also in preauthorized shades of crimson. At the back of Mizzi’s
classroom are two display racks of Emirates-approved emollients for
“body shaping,” “firming,” “wrinkle control,” and “luminosity.”

“We have standards in regards to nail care,” Mizzi says. The same is
true for weight. If a crew member looks too heavy, his or her
superiors are to report their suspicions to a central fitness and
nutrition department. “And they follow up,” she says. Little escapes
scrutiny. By the time crew members reach Mizzi’s classroom, they have
moved into Emirates-managed apartments with Emirates-imposed curfews,
travel to work in Emirates-branded minibuses, and see
Emirates-employed doctors at in-house Emirates clinics.

Frontier Markets

Either President Joseph Kabila honors the deal, in which case he steps
down at the end of the year, elections are held, political prisoners
are freed and a political crisis is averted — or he uses the time to
figure out how he can keep clinging to power.

At this stage nobody knows which it will be. As Jeffrey Gettleman
reported in The Times, Mr. Kabila, who has already overstayed his term
in office, is probably not interested in remaining president for life.
Holed up in his Kinshasa mansion, he has shown little interest in
ruling Congo, and he has already looted his resource-rich country of
untold millions. But like many another rapacious strongmen, the
president, who is 45, is also keenly aware that his loot and his life
are safe only as long as he has the presidential levers and guns to
preserve them.

So there is every reason to be skeptical that Mr. Kabila will honor
the deal. In fact, while members of both his and the opposition party
have signed it, he has not — thinking, perhaps, that he can kick the
can down the road and that a solution that preserves his power will
pop up. It is therefore up to the bishops, the opposition, the United
States and others interested in bringing a modicum of democracy to
Congo to persuade him that he has been offered the best and only
available exit plan.

Mr. Stearns was not all negative about the deal, saying it was
“astounding” that Mr. Kabila’s side had agreed to important
concessions, such as appointing a member of the opposition to be the
new prime minister and not changing the Constitution so that Mr.
Kabila could run again.

But Mr. Stearns also said Mr. Kabila “could have just realized that he
needed a good excuse to kick the can down the road further and a
solution would pop up in the long term.”

And why did the opposition agree?

Opposition leaders had vowed never to allow Mr. Kabila to stay in
office beyond Dec. 20. They threatened to mobilize millions in an Arab
Spring-like uprising to drive him out.

That did not happen. Some demonstrators hit the streets on Dec. 19 and
20, but they were quickly run off by the security forces, who have
remained loyal to Mr. Kabila partly because he has paid them
relatively well despite a crashing national economy.

Conclusions

Round 1 in the Battle for the Street goes to President Kabila

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

Barrow is supposed to be inaugurated on January 19th, which is also
the deadline ecowas has given Jammeh.

Conclusions

Jammeh is on his way.

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.6402
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.0715
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Africa is a very non-linear place but recent elections from President
Buhari of Nigeria through president-elect Barrow in the Gambia through
president-elect Akufo-Addo of Ghana (pictured below) is surely
signalling a trend-change is at hand.

You might turn around and ask: What about the DRC where a President
with less than 10% national support is manoeuvring to hold on?
Burundi? Ethiopia? Zimbabwe? Equatorial Guinea? and too many more to
mention.

The big picture point is in fact a demographic one. Many commentators
define the African population surge as a ‘’dividend’’ but what is
clear is that if it is allowed a Free and Fair vote its going be a
Terminator for a whole number of regimes.  The demographic bulge is
now arriving at voting age.  is is that moment, its importance cannot
be gainsaid. These regimes are now facing an existentialist crisis.

The amendments to the electoral law provide for a manual mechanism for
voter registration and results transmission as a fall-back plan should
electronic methods fail. The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy,
Kenya’s main political opposition group, says the changes may open the
electoral system to abuse by enabling the registration of dead people
or under-aged voters.

The proposed changes were approved by the National Assembly last
month. CORD, led by ex-Premier Raila Odinga has threatened nationwide
street protests should President Uhuru Kenyatta signs the amendments
into law.

Kenyatta, 55, is seeking a second term at general polls on Aug. 8. He
won the 2013 presidential elections with 50.07 percent of the total
followed by Odinga, who got 43.3 percent.

Conclusions

Closely contested Elections present a clear and present danger in SSA.
The LSE in a report I quoted last year spoke to anti-Incumbency Trend
across the Continent. Its a little like what drove Trump. ABC or ABI
[Anyone but Clinton or Anyone but Incumbent]. Furthermore, we have a
big spike in newly enfranchised Young People, the bulge has passed
meaningfully into the voting configuration. The Opposition need to
coalesce around a left-field candidate like Adama Barrow. This
Election is president Kenyatta's to lose.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Globally there has been plenty of action. The Chinese Authorities
squeezed overnight lending rates for the Yuan to as high as 100%
burning short Sellers. The Chinese currency strengthened by the most
in 11 years this week. BITCOIN as i have previously mentioned has
become a proxy for Chinese capital flight and the rebound in the Yuan
was a catalyst for a big sell-off in BITCOIN. I am bullish BITCOIN in
2017.

The Kenya Shilling was last trading at 103.70. The Slide [which seems
to have captured everyone's attention] is -1.17% since the start of
the Year. The Media and most commentators are fixated by the Dollar
Exchange Rate and it worth noting that the Dollar has been on a tear
since November 8th and the Election of Donald J. Trump. The Shilling
has outperformed in point of fact, its fall against the Dollar is less
than the Dollar Index has risen. So that is the first Point, the
Shilling is having to face down a very vibrant and muscular ''Trump''
Dollar, which, for example, has sent the likes of the Malaysian
Ringgit [close to 20 year lows] and the Turkish Lira to a record Low
[Turkey of course has its own internal dynamic of Syrian-spillover
risk]. So a Strong Dollar was demanding a retracement of the Shilling.
A further consideration is that on a trade-weighted basis the Shilling
has been strengthening. Sub-optimal Precipitation [weather shocks have
triggered outsize inflationary effects via higher food prices] and an
Election Year have also turned some Investors more defensive. There is
also a sense that the Central Bank might dial down the level of their
interventions. Finally, Kenya [and the rest of East Africa] received a
significant Tail-Wind from lower Oil Prices and of late Crude Oil
Prices have floated higher on OPEC Quota Optimism. I expect Crude Oil
prices to hold below a $60.00 a Barrel in New York and that therefore
Oil related worries are overblown. Currency concerns might well be
pressuring the Stock Market as the selling was broad-based across the
Big Caps today.
The Nairobi All Share slumped -1.285% to close at a 4 month Low of
129.76. The All Share us -2.68% in 2017.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index retreated -0.99% to close at 3139.21.
Equity turnover was 779.916m with most of it transacted in Safaricom.

Safaricom eased back -1.06% to close at 18.60 and traded 28.016m
shares worth 521.513m.

The Banking Stocks came under persistent sell-side pressure today.
KCB Group was marked down -3.48% to close at 27.75 a 9 week low. KCB
traded 3.180m shares worth 88.712m.
Equity Group traded -3.36% lower to close at 28.75 a 12 week Low.
Equity traded 2.118m shares.

BRITAM firmed +1.82% to close at 11.20 and closed out the first week
of 2017 +11.2% having traded as high as 13.90 during the week.

EABL closed -1.71% at 229.00 and traded 275,100 shares.

Mumias Sugar bucked the bearish trend and bounced 4% to close at 1.30
and was trading 1.35 +8.00% for most of the session.

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