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Monday 09th of January 2017
 
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Macro Thoughts

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In one of the book's many lyrical passages, he remembers their wedding
Africa


"afternoon on a smooth green gold California hillside, with oak in
darker patches, a freeway in the distance, dogs and children playing
and running, and the sky, for many of the guests, awriggle with
patterns of many colors, some indescribable."

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Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections ICA 2017-01D 6 January 2017
Law & Politics


Russian efforts to influence the 2016 US presidential election
represent the most recent expression of Moscow’s longstanding desire
to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order, but these activities
demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of
activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations.

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence
campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals
were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate
Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency.
We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear
preference for President-elect Trump.

Moscow’s influence campaign followed a Russian messaging strategy that
blends covert intelligence operations—such as cyber activity—with
overt efforts by Russian Government agencies, state-funded media,
third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls.”
Russia, like its Soviet predecessor, has a history of conducting
covert influence campaigns focused on US presidential elections that
have used intelligence officers and agents and press placements to
disparage candidates perceived as hostile to the Kremlin.

 Russia’s state-run propaganda machine contributed to the influence
campaign by serving as a platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and
international audiences.

We assess Moscow will apply lessons learned from its Putin-ordered
campaign aimed at the US presidential election to future influence
efforts worldwide, including against US allies and their election
processes.

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TRUMP, PUTIN, AND THE BIG HACK David Remnick
Law & Politics


Vyacheslav Molotov, Stalin’s foreign minister, once remarked while on
a trip to Berlin in the early days of the Cold War, “The trouble with
free elections is that you never know how they will turn out.”

On the morning of November 9th, Molotov’s grandson, Vyacheslav
Nikonov, a member of the Russian Duma’s foreign-affairs committee,
announced to the parliament, “Three minutes ago, Hillary Clinton
conceded defeat in the American Presidential elections. And just this
second Donald Trump began his speech as President-elect.” The Duma
members cheered and applauded.

Vladimir Putin did not showboat, but he, too, made his satisfaction
plain. His spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, told reporters that the
similarity between Trump and Putin’s “conceptual approach to foreign
policy” was “phenomenal.” Trump’s victory was the basis for Russia’s
“moderate optimism”; now both sides could discuss how “to clear out
the Augean stables in our bilateral relations.”

All of this is all the more alarming to recall now, in the light of
the latest news: according to U.S. intelligence reports, Putin
“ordered an influence campaign” to undermine Clinton and work with “a
clear preference” to enhance Trump’s prospects. A classified version
of this intelligence has now been delivered to both the President and
the President-elect. Briefed in New York on Friday by the heads of the
C.I.A., F.B.I., and N.S.A., Trump, who earlier in the day called the
focus on Russian hacking “a political witch hunt,” finally allowed, if
obliquely, that the Russians—and not the Chinese, not “somebody
sitting on their bed that weighs four hundred pounds”—might have
hacked the e-mail accounts of the Democratic National Committee and
Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta. A declassified report
concluded that Putin ordered a campaign of covert operations, from
defamatory “fake news” articles about Clinton to the hack itself. Even
as Trump seemed to shift his view of the source of the D.N.C. hack, he
did not, however, concede that the operation had helped his campaign.
The declassified report, however, said that the C.I.A., F.B.I., and
N.S.A. had uniformly “high confidence” that Putin ordered the
operation in order to “undermine public faith in the US democratic
process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and
potential presidency.” The N.S.A. had only “moderate confidence” on
some details, while the C.I.A. and F.B.I. had “high confidence.” The
differences, while vague, seem to be over the degree of Putin’s
personal role. The declassified version of the report was unrevealing
about how the agencies had come to their conclusions or collected
their information.

Putin’s resentment of Clinton was always manifest; it is almost as
severe as Trump’s. Putin saw the Clinton Administration of the
nineties as having taken advantage of Russian weakness after the fall
of the Soviet Union, twenty-five years ago. He viewed Hillary Clinton
as a foreign-policy hawk who wanted regime change from Baghdad to Kiev
to Moscow. In 2011, Putin, who lives in fear of spontaneous uprisings,
events like the Arab Spring and the “color revolutions” in Ukraine and
Georgia, accused Clinton of giving “a signal” to urge thousands of
Russians to come out on the streets of Moscow to protest
parliamentary-election “irregularities” and Putin’s intention to
return once more to the Kremlin as President.

In the past few weeks, I’ve had conversations with Russian political
experts, and all of them agreed that Putin was certainly pleased, at
least initially, with Trump’s victory—and that satisfaction is
reflected, too, on countless news and talk shows on television. These
analysts added that Putin is undoubtedly cheered that Rex Tillerson,
Trump’s appointment to head the State Department, was likely to leave
behind American “sanctimony” about human rights and democracy and,
following the pattern of his career at ExxonMobil, to concentrate on
purely “transactional politics.” Some, however, wondered if Putin will
remain enchanted with Trump once he encounters Trump’s
inconsistencies, his alarming penchant for surprise pronouncements via
Twitter.

Like many nationalist politicians in Europe, Trump has made plain his
admiration for Putin, complimenting the Russian leader’s “great
control over his country,” while at the same time failing to address
the reality that Putin’s regime has instituted wholesale censorship of
television, increased repressive measures on ordinary citizens, and
unleashed his forces in Ukraine and Syria. (Putin, of course,
discounts criticism of his policies as Western hypocrisy and points to
everything from the invasion of Iraq, which he opposed, to the
eastward expansion of nato, which he sees as an aggressive act.)

Trump’s argument throughout the campaign, the reason for his
compliments for Putin, he has said, is related to his stated desire to
ease tensions between Russia and the United States and avoid the
ultimate disaster, a nuclear confrontation. But what concerns many
seasoned American analysts, politicians, and diplomats is that Trump
is deluding himself about Putin’s intentions and refuses to see the
nature of Russia’s nationalist, autocratic regime clearly. Trump has
spoken critically of nato and in support of European nationalist
initiatives like Brexit to such a degree that, according to one Obama
Administration official, “our allies are absolutely terrified and
completely bewildered.”

Strobe Talbott, who was Bill Clinton’s closest adviser on Russia, told
me recently that the hack of the D.N.C. and Putin’s other moves in
Europe—including the annexation of Crimea, the Russian military
presence in eastern Ukraine, and the financial support of nationalists
like Marine Le Pen, of France—were part of a larger strategy intended
to weaken the E.U. and nato.

“I try to be careful about superlatives,” Talbott said, “but I cannot
think, going back to the Soviet Union or since, that there’s been a
Moscow-Kremlin-instigated gambit that was so spectacularly successful
as what they have done with our democracy. All of those assets that
they tried to use on us over the years were far less by comparison;
this was like winning seventeen jackpots all at once.”

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05-DEC-2016 timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary's bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump's
Law & Politics


From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.

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Saudi Arabia's dream of becoming the dominant Arab and Muslim power in the world has gone down in flames
Law & Politics


A US State Department paper sent by former Secretary of State, Hillary
Clinton, in 2014 and published by Wikileaks spoke of the Saudis and
Qataris as rivals competing “to dominate the Sunni world”.

A year later in December 2015, the German foreign intelligence service
BND was so worried about the growing influence of Saudi Arabia that it
took the extraordinary step of producing a memo, saying that “the
previous cautious diplomatic stance of older leading members of the
royal family is being replaced by an impulsive policy of
intervention”.

What it did not foresee was the speed with which Saudi Arabia would
see its high ambitions defeated or frustrated on almost every front.
But in the last year Saudi Arabia has seen its allies in Syrian civil
war lose their last big urban centre in east Aleppo. Here, at least,
Saudi intervention was indirect but in Yemen direct engagement of the
vastly expensive Saudi military machine has failed to produce a
victory. Instead of Iranian influence being curtailed by a more
energetic Saudi policy, the exact opposite has happened. In the last
OPEC meeting, the Saudis agreed to cut crude production while Iran
raised output, something Riyadh had said it would always reject.

Nothing has gone well for the Saudis in Yemen and Syria. The Saudis
apparently expected the Houthis to be defeated swiftly by pro-Saudi
forces, but after fifteen months of bombing they and their ally,
former President Saleh, still hold the capital Sanaa and northern
Yemen.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman is being blamed inside and outside the
Kingdom for impulsive misjudgments that have brought failure or
stalemate. On the economic front, his Vision 2030 project whereby
Saudi Arabia is to become less wholly dependent on oil revenues and
more like a normal non-oil state attracted scepticism mixed with
derision from the beginning.

The attempt by Saudi Arabia and Gulf oil states to achieve hegemony in
the Arab and Sunni Muslim worlds has proved disastrous for almost
everybody. The capture of east Aleppo by the Syrian Army and the
likely fall of Mosul to the Iraqi Army means defeat for that the Sunni
Arabs in a great swathe of territory stretching from Iran to the
Mediterranean.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0526
Dollar Index 102.20
Japan Yen 117.45
Swiss Franc 1.0182
Pound 1.2235
Aussie 0.7310
India Rupee 68.205
South Korea Won 1206.53
Brazil Real 3.2239
Egypt Pound 17.9935
South Africa Rand 13.7640

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.11% 2016
Africa


51,216.00 +741.05 +1.47%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7618 [Buy the Rand on dips]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9935

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.32% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

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Ghana's new President Nana Akufo-Addo pledged to cut taxes to boost the economy at his swearing in ceremony on Saturday
Africa


"We will reduce taxes to recover the momentum of our economy," said
Akufo-Addo, wrapped in a traditional kaleidoscopic "kente" robe.
"Ghana is open for business again."

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09-JAN-2017 :: The Shilling @TheStarkenya
Kenyan Economy


The Kenya Shilling closed out the week trading around the 103.70 Level
and that makes a -1.17% slide versus the Dollar since the start of the
year. That -1.17% slide created a flurry of media demand for comment
and it never ceases to amaze me how relatively small moves in the
Shilling create such an outsize hullabaloo. I am always tempted to
preface any comment or opinion with the following comment.

Please note you can pretty much walk into a Bank or Bureau and change
your Shillings with a 50cent Bid-Offer spread. Today across vast
swathes of Africa this is not possible. Take a look at how many
countries are running Official [typically overvalued] and Parallel
currency markets. Nigeria and Angola spring to my mind. Furthermore,
The Shilling exhibits less volatility than nearly all of its SSA
Peers. Our FX markets are visible, liquid and transparent which is
commendable.

So the Shilling has fallen -1.17% versus the Dollar since the start of
2017 and -2.167% since November 8th. I cite November 8th because that
was when Donald J. Trump was elected and his election was the starting
Pistol for a sharp ''Trump'' rally. The Dollar Index [The Dollar
versus a basket of currencies] has been on a Tear and rallied +6.185%
between November 8th and its January high last week. The Shilling has
been facing down a very vibrant Dollar, others have been capitulating.
The Mexico Peso [sits at the bleeding Edge of Trump's Policies] and
the Turkish Lira [finds itself at the epicentre of Syrian Blow-back]
have slumped to all time lows during this period. In fact since
November 8th, the Kenya Shilling has outperformed the fall in the
Dollar Index by a very wide margin. If we had matched the Dollar Index
Rally since Nov 8th, The Shilling should be trading at around 107.00,
it is this thinking that might be informing the bearish Shilling view.
107.00 is a Key Chart Level [It was an intra-day Low in 2011] and a
violation of that Level would be problematic from a chart based
analysis.

If You were to look at a Trade-weighted Shilling, You will note that
the Shilling has appreciated against nearly every currency in that
trade-weighted Index.

I am not privy to the thinking at the Central Bank but market
Participants are of the view that they might look to dial down the
level of their interventions. We are in an Election Year and whilst I
appreciate this is an election for the President to lose, election
years tend to lop off 1.4% off GDP as Folks take a ''wait and see''
approach and position themselves defensively. This defensive posture
tends to weigh on the Shilling. Sub-optimal Precipitation [evidenced
in water-rationing] is also a concern. Weather shocks like drought
typically send Food Prices higher and that feeds into inflation very
quickly. The Inflation Outlook is not looking as benign as it was
previously. The biggest single expense item for Kenya and in fact for
East Africa Inc. is in fact the Fuel import Bill. Lower Crude Oil
Prices have been a significant Tail-wind for East Africa. Of course
the lower Oil Price structure crashed SSA Economies from Luanda to
Abuja and many other places in between. Crude Oil prices have been
pushing higher on OPEC quota discipline optimism. I expect Crude Oil
Prices to hold below $60.00 a barrel in New York through 2017 and that
this recent uptick to fade. We also need to watch GOK Bond Auction
data carefully now. The Interest rate Cap Bill stampeded Banks into
GOK Paper. That Demand appeared to be tapering at the Year-End.

All is not lost though going by some of the commentary you might think it was.

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Nairobi Business Ventures Limited reports H116 Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           7.90
Total Shares Issued:          23600000.00
Market Capitalization:        186,440,000
EPS:             0.187
PE:                 42.246

Nairobi Business Ventures H1 2016/ 17 report through 30th September
2016 vs 30th September 2015
H1 Revenue 34.663639m vs. 32.157546m +7.793%
H1 Cost of sales [13.483245m] vs. [12.628772m] +6.766%
H1 Gross profit 21.180394m vs. 19.528774m +8.457%
H1 Administrative expenses [3.617007m] vs. [3.405158m] +6.221%
H1 Other operating expenses [12.888750m] vs. [9.853919m] +30.798%
H1 Operating profit 4.674637m vs. 6.269697m -25.441%
H1 Finance costs [3.189189m] vs. [4.866350m] -34.464%
H1 Profit before tax 1.485448m vs. 1.403347m +5.850%
H1 Profit for the period 1.039813m vs. 0.982343m +5.850%
Shareholders’ funds 78.883416m vs. 46.402816m +69.997%
Non-current liabilities – Borrowings 65.541703m vs. 24.131694m +171.600%
Cash and cash equivalents [14.297868m] vs. [55.641066m] +74.303%

Nairobi Business Ventures Limited FY 2016 Results through 31st March
2016 vs. 31st March 2015
FY Revenue 85.107960m vs. 74.139620m +14.794%
FY Cost of sales [31.440474m] vs. [31.285301m] +0.496%
FY Gross profit 53.667486m vs. 42.854320m +25.232%
FY Administrative expenses [10.538367m] vs. [8.107662m] +29.980%
FY Other operating expenses [25.613486m] vs. [19.542366m] +31.066%
FY Operating profit 17.515633m vs. 15.204292m +15.202%
FY Finance costs [11.196876m] vs. [11.285736m] -0.787%
Profit before tax 6.318757m vs. 3.918556m +61.252%
Profit for the period 4.423130m vs. 2.742989m +62.252%
Shareholders funds 49.843603m vs. 45.420473m +9.738%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period [20.886734m] vs.
[32.672855m] -36.073%

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.70
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -2.68% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

129.76 -1.69 -1.29%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.48% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Pound retreated to trade at 1.2156 versus the Dollar as Prime
Minister Theresa May's recent pronouncements were seen to be
signalling a ''hard'' Brexit.
The Shilling was last trading at 103.80. The Shilling has retreated
-2.167% since November 8th whilst the Dollar Index has rallied about
6% over that same period.
The Shilling has therefore in fact outperformed most of its Peers.
The Bear Run continued at the Securities Exchange with the Nairobi All
Share falling -0.69% to close at a 28 month Low of 128.86.
The Nairobi All Share is -3.35% in 2016
The Nairobi NSE20 Index eased -0.69% and in lock-step with the All
Share and closed at 3,117.40.
Equity Turnover clocked 479.57m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi traded 600 shares all at 308.00 +10.00% and the daily limit-up.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased -0.54% to close at a 20 week low of 18.50 and traded
18.451m shares worth 341.762m and the most actively traded share at
the Securities Exchange today. Safaricom is seriously oversold now.

WPP-ScanGroup was up-ticked +3.68% to close at 16.90 on light trading
of just 900 shares.

Kenya Airways firmed +0.88% to close at 5.70 and traded 86,400 shares.
Michael Joseph sees his Chairmanship as a ''Legacy'' Thing and I for
one am not prepared to bet against him and increasingly we will see
shareholders get with the MJ Program.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered firmed +1.09% to close at 185.00. StanChart was the
only Banking stock to produce a positive return for shareholders in
2016 and is expected to produce a similar outcome in 2017.
KCB Group eased back -1.801% to close at a 9 week Low of 27.25 and
traded 3.692m shares worth 101.514m.
Equity Group retreated -1.739% to close at 28.25 and traded 100,700
shares which represented 4% of the shares being offered for sale.

Jubilee Insurance swam against the Tide and traded the grand total of
100 shares at 495.00 +1.02%.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenolKobil firmed +1.70% to close at 14.90 and traded 189,100 shares.
It remains in a relentless Bull channel.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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