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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 13th of December 2017

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Those in the know believe there are around 18 elephants remaining that can be classified as "Big Tuskers" @David_Yarrow

For those concerned about the disclosure of these elephants location
it is not something to worry about. This film was shot 10 weeks ago
and we have delayed it’s release to ensure that the elephants would be
in totally new locations. The Big Tuskers are well taken care of in
Tsavo and Amboseli. Tsavo is absolutely vast and difficult to access,
whilst Tim is under constant surveillance. We would not risk
endangering these animals.

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President Putin has arrived in Khmeimim airbase in Syria, meeting President Assad @Amb_Yakovenko
Law & Politics

Владимир Путин прилетел в Сирию: Президент России встретился с
Башаром Асадом на российской базе Хмеймим @dimsmirnov175


Vladimir Putin arrived in Syria: President of Russia met with Bashar
Al-Assad on Russian base Hmejmim

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VIDEO: Putin visits Russian troops at Syria's #Khmeimim Airbase @RT_com
Law & Politics


Putin's intervention began in October 2015. He proved he will stand by
his Allies and that his intervention tips the balance [along with

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5 OCT 15 :: "I cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise now what you've done?"
Law & Politics

Let us return to UNGA, where Putin set out his stall and I quote: ‘’I
cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise
now what you’ve done?’’

With hundreds of thousands of refugees entering Europe, his question
was a sharp one. Within 24 hours of delivering that speech, Russia
instructed that the US should vacate Syrian Air Space. This message
was not delivered to Ashton Carter by his Russian counterpart Shoigu.

It was delivered to the US Embassy in Baghdad. And pretty soon after
that message was delivered, Russia began its intervention on the side
of President Bashar Assad of Syria.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1755
Dollar Index 93.92
Japan Yen 113.28
Swiss Franc 0.9897
Pound 1.3323
Aussie 0.7574
India Rupee 64.514
South Korea Won 1090.92
Brazil Real 3.3066
Egypt Pound 17.8555
South Africa Rand 13.6707

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Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 57.54

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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“It’s a lesson for the old dinosaurs still kicking around as heads of
state in Africa,” says Richard Downie, deputy director of the Africa
Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “You’re
in power at the behest of the people or the party. When they call
time, there’s not much you can do about it.”

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Afreximbank to provide USD 1.5 billion stabilisation package for #Zimbabwe

The African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank) has availed US$1,5
billion to support the revitalisation and stabilisation of the
country’s economy, in a latest show of confidence by the regional

The package was announced by Afreximbank President and Chairman, Dr
Okey Oramah when he paid a courtesy call on President Emmerson
Mnangagwa at his Munhumutapa offices in Harare this Tuesday afternoon.

Dr Oramah was accompanied by the bank’s Executive Vice President, Mr
Denys Denya and the Regional Chief Operating Officer for Southern
Africa, Mr Gift Simwaka when he met Cde Mnangagwa.

The Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Cde Patrick
Chinamasa and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Governor, Dr John
Mangudya were also in attendance.

Speaking to journalists after the meeting, Dr Oramah said they found
it prudent to come and congratulate President Mnangangwa and to convey
the stabilisation package.

The support by the Afreximbank comes on the back of positive signals
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has officially
confirmed its willingness to partner with the new government.

The government of China last week signed a US$220 million package for
strategic sectors of the Zimbabwean economy.

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For the first time in 20 years, the Presidency has started to compose regulations for a state of emergency. via @News24

Rapport, sister publication of News24, saw the draft regulations in
terms of the State of Emergency Act 64 of 1997.

In terms of these draft regulations, any security official will have
far-reaching powers to act within his or her own judgement, arrest
people, search property or cut communication channels such as
cellphones or the internet.

The Constitution allows the president to declare a state of emergency
when war, invasion, revolt, natural disasters or other dangers
threaten the nation's safety.

Former president PW Botha declared such a state of emergency on July
25, 1985. Activists were held captive in unknown places for
undetermined periods.

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A week before the ANC elective conference reports emerge of the presidency drafting regulations for a state of emergency @Pol_Sec_Analyst

A week before the ANC elective conference & the possibility that a
factionalised government accused of looting state resources could lose
power & face prosecution, reports emerge of the presidency drafting
regulations for a state of emergency

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11-DEC-2017 :: This Man [Christo Wiese] with a Midas Touch #Steinhoff

As I scrambled to catch up with the story, I was amazed at how it was
being reported in South Africa, which proudly advances the idea that
it is the most liquid market in Africa. SABC News was reporting the
story from the Angle of black disempowerment, that Steinhoff did not
have sufficient BEE-correlated representation and this was the
fundamental flaw.
The JSE was arguing that the primary listing was in Frankfurt and
therefore the primary investigation was being led by the Europeans.
No-one seemed keen on establishing the facts and sizing the hole other
than opining on the share price collapse and Christo’s exponentially
reducing fortune.
This forensic intellectual cul-de-sac seemingly across vast swathes of
South African Media [Alishia Seckham of Business Day TV deserves a
shout-out for bucking this trend] was very curious and made me wonder
if the Zuptas linguistic onslaught over the years had not dumbed
things down big.
As I scanned the Internet for some serious beef and something I could
tuck into, I finally came across a report authored by the Viceroy
Research Group headlined ‘’Viceroy unearths Steinhoff’s skeletons –
off-balance sheet related party entities inflating earnings, obscuring
‘’ This is reflected by the fact that 85 per cent of Steinhoff’s EBIT
is not translated into free cash flows.
The above facts indicate that Steinhoff appear to be running a Ponzi
scheme, as these non-cash earnings are disguised through issuing fresh
equity. The report is worth reading in full.

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"You don't often know what the demand is if there is no supply," Ingham continues. @theafricareport

“In some markets, they [ShopRite] go in and it is like Christmas. For
many consumers, relatively affordable foodstuffs are a dream come

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#SouthAfrica's #rand could be in for a wild ride this week @PaulWallace123

#SouthAfrica's #rand could be in for a wild ride this week. The
currency's implied (or expected) volatility has soared to a two-year
high now we're less than a week away from the ruling #ANC's conference
to replace #Zuma as party leader.

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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 13.67

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8555


How our crew landed in Paris...@4eyedmonk


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +44.84% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +49.89% 2017


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@UKenyatta bets on four key sectors to boost growth @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

President Uhuru Kenyatta Tuesday said his administration will pay
special attention to four key sectors he believes will drive Kenya’s
economic agenda during his second term in office.
The youth, he said, will be at the centre of the four pillars plan,
dubbed the ‘Big Four’, that includes food security, affordable
housing, manufacturing and affordable healthcare.
Mr Kenyatta said growth in the key sectors will ride on the foundation
laid in his first term in sectors such as transport, electricity
distribution, education and ICT.
“I believe in you. You are my partners. And this is why my Big Four
plan is centred on you. You will drive the big shift from politics to
prosperity,” he told Kenya’s youthful population at Nairobi’s Kasarani
Sports Complex during celebrations to mark the 54th Jamhuri Day.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +31.99% 2017


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +17.12% 2017


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The US is expected to raise the FED FUNDS rate a quarter point
tonight, to between 1.25 and 1.50 percent, which will be its third
hike of the year and fifth since the financial crisis.
A stunning political upset makes Jones the first Democratic senator
from Alabama in a quarter of a century and will trim the Republicans’
majority to just 51-49, meaning it could be harder for Trump to
advance his policy agenda.
“The big issue now is whether Republicans will push through their tax
bill before Christmas,” said Sue Trinh, head of Asia foreign-exchange
strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong.
Gold was near its weakest level in almost five months at $1,242.18 an ounce.
The Nairobi All Share which had rallied +31.99% in 2017 through this
morning matching a 34 month closing high previously reached in
February 2015 met a wall of profit taking and corrected -1.05% to
close at 174.14.
The Nairobi NSE20 which had rallied +17.12% in 2017 and therefore
lagged the All Share [Its a Safaricom weighting issue] corrected 20.96
points lower to close at 3710.83.
Equity Turnover was better than brisk and clocked 1.429b.
The Equity market looks like it was hit with a Program Trade on the
sell side today.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi sank -6.571% to close at 327.00 and traded 4,400 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom eased -1.79% off an all time closing high of 28.00 to close
at 27.50 and traded 25.552m shares worth 705.736m which represented
49.36% of the total volume transacted. Safaricom has served up a
+48.66% total return in 2017 outperforming the All Share Index by
62.2%, which is meaningful and has underpinned the Nairobi Index
performance in 2017.

Kenya Airways continued its run higher and bounced +0.85% higher to
close at 17.75.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Group corrected -1.23% to close at 40.25 and traded 3.145m
shares worth 126.857m. Equity Group trades on a Trailing PE ratio of
KCB Group closed unchanged at 42.00 and traded 1.606m shares.
Interestingly in a soft market tilted to the downside KCB closed the
session trading at 42.50 +1.19%. KCB trades on a Trailing PE ratio of
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 16.00 and traded 3.190m shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil retreated -3.06% to close at 14.25 on heavy duty volume
action and 1.271% of its shares [18.715m shares worth 266.397m].
KenolKobil trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 8.6890 and accelerated H1
2017 PBT +20.573%. David Ohana has not put a foot wrong and KenolKobil
is a Buy on any further reverses.

KenGen had 3 Buyers for every Seller and firmed +0.58% to close at
8.60. The Price is being defended at this level.

EABL was marked down -2.409% to close at 243.00 and traded 301,100 shares.

Bamburi Cement slipped -1.11% to close at 178.00 and traded 424,400
shares. Bamburi Cement issued a Full Year Profits warning on the 30th
of November.
ARM Cement sank -4.166% to close at 11.50 an April 2006 closing low.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2017

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