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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 15th of March 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya

Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles
Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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More than a funny coincidence? #Bitcoin and #ECB balance sheet move more or less in tandem @Schuldensuehner

Home Thoughts

Yesterday I one to watch Hannah play hockey and I enjoyed being
outside watching children play. And they are all so civilised
congratulating each other on a game well played and that kind of

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lemn sissay @lemnsissay

"How do you do it?" said night
"How do you wake and shine?"
"I keep it simple" said light
"One day at a time."

Political Reflections

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Saudi Arabia claimed "a historic turning point" in relations with the U.S.
Law & Politics

Saudi Arabia claimed “a historic turning point” in relations with the
U.S. after President Donald Trump welcomed Deputy Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman to the White House.

“Relations had undergone a period of difference of opinion,” a senior
adviser to the crown prince said in a statement after Tuesday’s
meeting. “However, today’s meeting has put things on the right track,
and marked a significant shift in relations, across all political,
military, security and economic fields.”

The effusive praise for Trump’s “great understanding” of U.S.-Saudi
relations reflects the eagerness among Sunni-led Arab nations for a
renewed alliance after deep strains with former President Barack
Obama, who crafted the 2015 nuclear deal with their Shiite rival Iran.

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Dutch Vote in Test of Populism's Potency at the Heart of Europe
Law & Politics

Dutch voters are heading to the polls in a general election that will
provide the first gauge of the spread of populism into the core of

The contest pits Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte against his
anti-Islam challenger, Geert Wilders, whose platform of pulling the
Netherlands out of the European Union and halting immigration attempts
to ride the wave of nationalist sentiment that prompted the U.K.’s
Brexit vote and catapulted Donald Trump to the White House.

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13-MAR-2017 :: The Right has the wind in its sails but in Europe the elections are not of the Winner takes All variety.
Law & Politics

This week The European Election Season kicks off in earnest in Europe
with the Dutch Parliamentary Elections. President Erdogan once again
proved himself a tremendous and quality asset for the European
Far-Right.  The dispute between Turkey and the Netherlands hit a new
low Sunday, with a Turkish minister escorted out of the country as
persona non grata, less than a day after Turkey's foreign minister was
denied entry, prompting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call the
Dutch "Nazi remnants." The diplomatic standoff was over plans by
Turkish government officials to campaign in the Netherlands for a
referendum back home. Family and Social Policies Minister Fatma Betul
Sayan Kaya had arrived in the country from Germany but was prevented
from entering Turkey's diplomatic compound in Rotterdam, setting up an
extraordinary standoff with armed police. She was later sent under
escort back to Germany. The Direction of Travel the world over has
been in the Populist direction from Brexit to Trump and Geert Wilders
surely will post his Freedom party's best result ever and the Turks
will surely have juiced that some more. We then have an election in
France where Marine Le-Pen and her Front Nacional are fighting for the
keys to the Elysee Palace and the French Presidency. And later in the
year we go to Germany. The Right has the wind in its sails but in
Europe the elections are not of the Winner takes All variety. It would
require a very big Tide a Tsunami even to carry Gert, Marine and
others into power. The Euro, counterintuitively might rally ''bigly''
if a coalition blocks Gert in the Netherlands and the French 2nd round
vote blocks Le-Pen.

I listened to Trump's inauguration speech dubbed on an Arabic channel
— it could have easily been Saddam, Assad, or Sisi @BazziNYU

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James Comey to officially reveal if FBI is investigating Trump's ties to Russia during presidential election @MailOnline
Law & Politics

FBI director James Comey will say if the FBI is investigating Trump-Russia ties
He will confirm if there is an ongoing investigation in a hearing on Wednesday
He told senators Sheldon Whitehouse and Lindsey Graham of the news Tuesday
Both of the men had requested the FBI provide evidence of wiretapping claims

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0615
Dollar Index 101.67
Japan Yen 114.80
Swiss Franc 1.0093
Pound 1.2166
Aussie 0.7573
India Rupee 65.535
South Korea Won 1143.89
Brazil Real 3.1650
Egypt Pound 18.0460
South Africa Rand 13.1395

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13-MAR-2017 :: OPEC is that "scared little man"

Crude-oil sank below $50.00 in New York to close at December lows of
$48.75 a barrel. OPEC, which is led by Saudi Arabia, had been on a
Kamikazi mission to destroy the Shale Boys by pumping up the volume in
2015 and 2016 before doing a 360 degree turn in Q4 16, and dialing
down the volume.  e problem is that Shale has been able to turn up its
volume by more than OPEC can turn its down. It’s a delicious catch-22.

OPEC’s braggadocio had veiled this reality but last week crude oil
crashed as the markets lifted the veil and OPEC was found to be
General Butt Naked (for reasons of accuracy, Joshua Milton Blahyi
better known by his nom de guerre General Butt Naked, is a former
commander of forces under the wider control of Liberian warlord
Roosevelt Johnson). It surely suits President Trump’s MAGA Agenda to
encourage the Shale Folks to turn it up some more.  is price trend,
which I expect to accelerate, is set to put breaking-point pressure on
oil producers. The Treasuries in Riyadh, Luanda, Caracas and in so
many places had been betting on a price rebound (by borrowing more). I
believe we had a Wizard of Oz like lifting the curtain moment for OPEC
last week. ‘’It’s Like Dorothy and the Wizard of Oz. When Dorothy’s
world ended in a terrible storm, she found herself beginning a great
adventure. She went looking for the fabled wizard in the Land of Oz
who was going to solve all of her problems and save the world. But
when she got to the Land of Oz and found the wizard, she discovered
that behind the great curtain there was a scared little man.” OPEC is
that ‘’scared little man’’.

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Pirates hijack freighter off Somalia's coast, officials say

Somali officials say pirates have hijacked a ship off the coast of the
Horn of Africa nation.

One official in the semiautonomous state of Puntland says the incident
occurred on Monday. The official says over two dozen men boarded the
merchant ship off Somalia's northern coast.

Another official in Puntland says the ship is a Sri Lankan-flagged
freighter and is now being moved toward the coast.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.06% 2017

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.1395

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.0460

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.92% 2017

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.16% 2017

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The Communications Authority (CA) Tuesday rejected the proposal to split Safaricom saying that such a move would "punish success".

Rather, the Authority said that it would pursue “modest” market
interventions to level the playing field while also protecting market
leader Safaricom.

“…I wish to allay fears that the Authority is planning to split the
business of players who are alleged to be dominant and thus create
disruptions in the market,” said CA chairman Ben Gituku in a

Separately, the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) confirmed that it
had submitted its review of the draft report, expressing views similar
to those of the Communication Authority.

“On splitting the company, we don’t support such a thing. It is an
extreme way of doing things,” said CAK director-general Wang’ombe
Kariuki in an interview.

Safaricom chief executive Bob Collymore on Tuesday said that the
company had moved to reassure investors of its continued stability.

Mr Collymore said that the telecom firm had conference called at least
70 international investors since Friday. The proposal to split the
company has excercabated prevailing investor concerns of market
instability in an election year.

“... the shareholders are concerned about a few things, having seen
their investments in the banking sector dive the way it did after the
interest rates capping Bill, facing an election year here in Kenya and
facing the current drought situation they are now wondering whether
this proposed regulation is healthy for their investments,” Mr
Collymore said in an interview.

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@Safaricomltd share price data

Breaking M-Pesa from Safaricom toxic

Kenya doctors end three-month strike after deal with government

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Equity Group reports FY 16 PAT -4.181% Earnings here

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           29.00
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        107,380,533,580
EPS:             4.38
PE:                 6.621

FY Investment securities 100.588954b vs. 42.775489b +135.156%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 266.068089b vs. 269.892942b -1.417%
FY Total assets 473.713133b vs. 428.062514b +10.664%
FY Customer deposits 337.198618b vs. 302.168588b +11.593%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 81.977096b vs. 72.136415b +13.602%
FY Loans and advances interest 43.065889b vs. 37.909498b +13.602%
FY Total interest income 51.840604b vs. 43.454466b +19.299%
FY Customer deposits expense [7.883466b] vs. [6.898327b] +14.281%
FY Total interest expenses [10.026712b] vs. [9.330902b] +7.457%
FY Net interest income 41.813893b vs. 34.123565b +22.537%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 3.307113b vs. 2.946453b +12.240%
FY Total Non-Interest income 22.218783b vs. 21.939059b +1.275%
FY Total operating income 64.032676b vs. 56.062624b +14.216%
FY Loan loss provision [6.645641b] vs. [2.433181b] +173.126%
FY Total operating expenses [39.105794b] vs. [32.104935b] +21.806%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 24.926883b vs.
23.957689b +4.045%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 16.602529b vs.
17.327000b -4.181%
EPS 4.38 vs. 4.59 -4.575%
Dividend per share 2.00 vs. 2.00 –
Total NPL and Advances 16.717199b vs. 7.327662b +128.138%
Liquidity ratio 47.6% vs. 33.2% +14.400%

From the Twitter Feed #EquityFY2016Results

@bharteshshah @KeEquityBank Equity Bank Kenya liquidity up to 48% from
29% in 2015. Very liquid balance sheet in a turbulent envr
@bharteshshah @KeEquityBank turbulent macro environment - industry NPL
at 10%+, reverse repo in Dec at 92B.
@bharteshshah @KeEquityBank Equity NPL at 6.8% vs industry at 11%
@JohnGachiri #EquityFY2016Results 17.5% return on infrastructure bond
has no risk Dr. Mwangi
@bharteshshah @KeEquityBank if risk free rate (t bonds) yield more
than the cap....where is the incentive to price risk?
@bharteshshah @KeEquityBank #EquityFY2016Results KE net loans down by
5% and govt paper up by 171%...
@mainakibui @CBKKenya capping interest rates without capping inflation
is creating chaos. #equityfy2016results @KeEquityBank #fb
The operating environment for banks in 2016 was turbulent - Dr. Mwangi
@JohnGachiri #EquityFY2016Results Total banking industry recorded a
-2% growth in deposits but Equity's growth was 17%. Dr. Mwangi
@KeEquityBank Equitel did 227mn transactions, Agency 62mn
transactions, ATMs 24.8mn transactions, Branch 20.4mn transactions


signalling strength in a sector that is facing unprecedented challenges

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2017

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