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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 17th of March 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Key ups & downs in Trump discretionary FY '18 budget: @markknoller
Africa


Defense +10%; Nuclear Security +11.3%; DHS +6.8%;
EPA -31%; USDA -21%; State -28.7%.

Home Thoughts

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Chandra Observatory @chandraxray Powered by a supermassive black hole, light from this quasar took 6 billion years to reach our eyes!
Africa


“There are dead stars that still shine because their light is trapped
in time. Where do I stand in this light, which does not strictly
exist?” ― Don DeLillo, Cosmopolis

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@TIME Vietnam war protester from iconic photo
Africa


 "There is a world inside the world." - Don DeLillo, Libra

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Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:
Africa


The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy.  ere’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
 The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

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13-MAR-2017 :: The Right has the wind in its sails but in Europe the elections are not of the Winner takes All variety.
Law & Politics


This week The European Election Season kicks off in earnest in Europe
with the Dutch Parliamentary Elections. President Erdogan once again
proved himself a tremendous and quality asset for the European
Far-Right.

The Direction of Travel the world over has been in the Populist
direction from Brexit to Trump and Geert Wilders surely will post his
Freedom party's best result ever and the Turks will surely have juiced
that some more. We then have an election in France where Marine Le-Pen
and her Front Nacional are fighting for the keys to the Elysee Palace
and the French Presidency. And later in the year we go to Germany. The
Right has the wind in its sails but in Europe the elections are not of
the Winner takes All variety. It would require a very big Tide a
Tsunami even to carry Gert, Marine and others into power. The Euro,
counterintuitively might rally ''bigly'' if a coalition blocks Gert in
the Netherlands and the French 2nd round vote blocks Le-Pen.

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"I'm not saying Erdogan can't do it, but I think it's a bluff," said Yesilada
Law & Politics


In 2016, 60 percent of the goods Turkey exported to the rest of the
world went to the EU. Europe also provides at least two-thirds of
foreign direct investment in Turkey as well as many of its tourists.
Growth was negative in the last reported quarter, and on Wednesday,
the government published the worst budget deficit and unemployment
figures since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

“I’m not saying Erdogan can’t do it, but I think it’s a bluff,” said
Yesilada. “We need to sell our textiles and other goods to Europe,
because we aren’t a resource economy. Turkey just isn’t Russia.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0771
Dollar Index 100.27
Japan Yen 113.44
Swiss Franc 0.9964
Pound 1.2349
Aussie 0.7682
India Rupee 65.504
South Korea Won 1131.53
Brazil Real 3.1207
Egypt Pound 18.1535
South Africa Rand 12.7697

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Vanilla Crop Damaged After Storm in Main Grower Madagascar
Commodities


The storm that killed at least 78 people in the Indian Ocean island
nation last week may have damaged as much as 30 percent of the crop,
according to David van der Walde, director at Aust & Hachmann Canada
Ltd., the world’s oldest vanilla company.

The vanilla market, worth about $1.3 billion a year at current prices,
was already tight after output slipped and quality suffered over the
past two years in Madagascar, which accounts for more than three
quarters of global supply. Prices have doubled in a little over a year
to more than $500 a kilogram.

Demand for pure, natural vanilla has been growing after food
manufacturers including Nestle SA and Hershey Co. shifted from
artificial flavoring. Farmers haven’t been able to keep up with
increasing consumption, as it takes three to four years for plants to
start producing vanilla beans, Nielsen said.

Producing the flavor isn’t easy. Vanilla comes from a bean pod that
grows on a vine-like orchid that’s originally from Mexico and was
introduced to Madagascar in the 1800s. Because the island doesn’t have
a certain kind of pollinating bee, this is done by hand. The flowers
that produce the pods open for less than a day each year and, if
they’re not pollinated during that time, that means no vanilla.

“There will simply not be enough vanilla to meet the world demand,”
said Josephine Lochhead, president at Cook Flavoring Co., a
century-old buyer in Paso Robles, California. “Vanilla is literally
gold.”

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Uganda: Ensure Independent Investigation into Kasese Killings Human Rights Watch
Africa


Police spokespeople reported the death toll over the two days as 87,
including 16 police. Human Rights Watch found the actual number to be
much higher – at least 55 people, including at least 14 police, killed
on November 26, and more than 100, including at least 15 children,
during the attack on the palace compound on November 27.

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South Sudan's Total Collapse Could Lead to the Destabilization of Central and Eastern Africa
Africa


As for the research at hand, it focuses mostly on South Sudan, which
is much more likely than the CAR is to play host to another regionally
significant conflict. The never-ending unrest within the country could
also easily permeate its neighbor’s non-existent eastern border and
set off a renewed chain of conflict there. The two countries most
directly affected by an outbreak of significant violence in the CAR
are Chad and Cameroon, while the regional leaders of Sudan, Ethiopia,
and Uganda are most at risk of being threatened by the destabilization
of South Sudan.

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Death spiral Famine, war and incompetence in the world's newest country The Economist
Africa


EVEN in the posher restaurants in Juba, the capital of South Sudan,
the world’s newest country, the menus are printed on cheap paper. It
is not worth having more expensive ones when they have to be updated
every few weeks. Thanks to an inflation rate that touched more than
50% a month at one point last year (the conventional definition of
hyperinflation, though it has since eased off a bit), even a modest
meal costs a brick-sized bundle of currency. Over the past year, the
value of the South Sudanese pound has collapsed. It used to take 30 to
buy a dollar; now it takes 120. The biggest banknote, 100 SSP, is now
the world’s least valuable highest-denomination national note.

The cause of this nasty bout of inflation is twofold: money-printing
and economic collapse. South Sudan’s economy is among the least
diversified in the world. In 2014 oil provided 99.8% of export
revenues. At independence in 2011, when production was high and oil
fetched over $100 a barrel, petrodollars flowed freely and fuelled
colossal political patronage. But a shutdown in 2012 followed by civil
war, which broke out in 2013, has slashed output. South Sudan now
produces around 120,000 barrels of oil per month; half what it did at
its peak, and the price per barrel is only half what it was in 2011.
The government has tried to print fresh banknotes to cover this
gigantic shortfall, with predictable results.

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Better rains in 2017 have improved farmers' prospects across southern Africa, according to Siliya.
Africa


“Clearly we’ve had some initial indications that the whole region --
South Africa, Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe -- will do well,” she said.

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13-MAR-2017 :: I expect SADC growth to outperform in 2017.
Africa


I was in Lusaka this weekend and it was greener than an Augusta green.
The South of Africa has had its best rains in years. When Agriculture
does well, African economies tend to hum. I expect SADC growth to
outperform in 2017.

South Africa's rand hovered near a 19-month high against the dollar
early on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates
on Wednesday, but signalled a gradual pace of rate hikes for the rest
of the year.

At 0646 GMT, the rand traded at 12.8125 per dollar, flat from its New
York close on Thursday, after rallying to 12.77 late on Wednesday in
the wake of the Fed's press conference.

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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.7697
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.14% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

52,748.97 +1,047.37 +2.03%

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1535

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

@ReutersAfrica  #Nigeria's Buhari marks return with rare economic
council meeting

https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/842385966023217152

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.42% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.19% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Nyusi celebrates Exxon's entry 17TH MARCH 2017 @Africa_Conf
Africa


Bringing in the US oil giant was a personal triumph for the President
but it won't raise as much tax as he hopes

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"it is unfortunate that the un-intended consequence of the capping of interest rates was a slow-down in lending by our commercial banks" Mr Kenyatta
Kenyan Economy


“On the issue of access to credit for SMEs, it is unfortunate that the
un-intended consequence of the capping of interest rates was a
slow-down in lending by our commercial banks,” Mr Kenyatta said in the
national address.

The growth in credit dropped from 16.8 per cent in January 2016 to 4.3
per cent in December as per the latest Central Bank of Kenya figures.

“This is an issue that concerns us and is one that I will actively
seek to resolve so that credit can start to flow again to the real
drivers of our economy,” said the President.

Banks say the problem of reduced lending and high interest rates
cannot be addressed within the framework of controlled lending and
deposit rates, adding that other policy interventions will be
effective.

“The rates cap needs to be removed so that banks and the government
can work together to implement solutions proposed earlier,” said Mr
Habil Olaka, the chief executive of the Kenya Bankers Association
(KBA).

“The law was passed in good faith, but the negative consequences we
highlighted are now emerging.”

“When quality becomes king, volume becomes vanity. No bank can
sustainably lose 10 per cent of its loan book,” said Mr James Mwangi,
Equity Group’s chief executive when announcing the bank’s results on
Wednesday.

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COOP Bank reports FY 16 PAT +8.292% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           12.90
Total Shares Issued:          4889316295.00
Market Capitalization:        63,072,180,206
EPS:             2.20
PE:                 5.86

FY Kenya government securities 37.158762b vs. 36.154555b +2.778%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 236.935564b vs. 213.383555b +11.037%
FY Total assets 351.856250b vs. 342.518187b +2.726%
FY Customer deposits 260.153437b vs. 265.398587b -1.976%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 351.856250b vs. 342.518187b +2.726%
FY Loan and advances interest income 33.378181b vs. 30.039822b +11.113%
FY Government securities interest income 8.495221b vs. 6.086562b +39.573%
FY Total interest income 42.264721b vs. 36.791204b +14.877%
FY Customer deposits expense [11.658414b] vs. [12.183736b] -4.312%
FY Total interest income [12.768300b] vs. [13.586911b] -4.312%
FY Net interest income/ [Loss] 29.496421b vs. 23.204293b +27.116%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 1.804344b vs. 3.192469b -43.481%
FY Other fees and commissions 7.456650b vs. 7.162155b +4.122%
FY Total Non-interest income 12.774510b vs. 13.185486b -3.117%
FY Total operating income 42.270931b vs. 36.389778b +16.162%
FY Loan loss provision [2.599671b] vs. [2.019295b] +28.742%
FY Staff costs [9.399704b] vs. [8.925220b] +5.316%
FY Total other operating expenses [24.641207b] vs. [21.389770b] +15.201%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 17.629724b vs.
15.000008b +17.531%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax 17.723532b vs. 15.383092b +15.214%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 12.676210b vs.
11.705558b +8.292%
Basic EPS 2.64 vs. 2.31 +14.286%
Diluted EPS 2.20 vs. 1.92 +14.583%
Dividend per share 0.80 vs. 0.80 –
Total NPL and Advances 10.145240b vs. 7.130565b +42.278%
Liquidity ratio 33.7% vs. 37.1% -3.400%

Commentary


Note that Co-operative Bank of South Sudan a Joint Venture partnership
with Government of South Sudan (Co-op Bank 51% and GOSS 49%) made a
monetary loss of Ksh.498.3 million in 2016 mainly attributable to
hyperinflation due to the currency devaluation. Kenya Wallstreet
0.80 cents Final Dividend
Bonus share 1 for every 5 held

Conclusions


Strong results.

read more


Liberty Kenya reports FY 16 EPS -15.385% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           11.50
Total Shares Issued:          535707499.00
Market Capitalization:        6,160,636,239
EPS:             1.17
PE:                 9.829

FY Total assets 34.697831b vs. 34.533689b +0.475%
FY Insurance contract liabilities 11.939589b vs. 11.060752b +7.946%
FY Total equity 6.753641b vs. 6.233111b +8.351%
FY Gross earned premium revenue 9.623170b vs. 9.352567b +2.893%
FY Less : outward reinsurance [4.049834b] vs. [3.826733b] +5.830%
FY Net insurance premium revenue 5.573336b vs. 5.525834b +0.860%
FY Commissions earned 872.058m vs. 794.679m +9.737%
FY Investment income 2.552561b vs. 1.833886b +39.189%
FY Total income 9.024873b vs. 8.271656b +9.106%
FY Claims and policyholder benefits [4.854412b] vs. [4.010655b] +21.038%
FY Amounts recoverable from reinsurers 1.756860b vs. 1.620588b +8.409%
FY Net insurance benefits and claims [3.952115b] vs. [3.126117b] +26.422%
FY Total expenses and commissions [4.130873b] vs. [4.191837b] -1.454%
FY Profit before income tax 941.885m vs. 953.702m -1.239%
FY Profit for the year 627.834m vs. 736.050m -14.702%
Basic and diluted EPS 1.17 vs. 1.37 -14.599%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year 4.936638b vs. 6.757174b -26.942%
No dividend

Company Commentary


''challenging operating environment of 2016''
Heritage Kenya a short term insurance company, produced a commendable
set of results with core earnings, represented by underwriting profit
doubling that in 2015.
Heritage Tanzania +28% in local currency
Liberty Life our long term assurance business had a difficult year
higher claim levels and severe competition especially in group life
products.

Conclusions


They are building a long term business and prepared to ride the short
term ups and downs.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.00
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.43% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -6.93% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

2,965.31 -5.67 -0.19%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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