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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 10th of March 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya
Africa


Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles
Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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@alykhansatchu @ICSKenya H/T @Alexanedokello
Africa


very much enjoyed this morning's event hosted by @ICSKenya

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"There is nothing like a dream to create the future." via @NgugiWaThiongo_ Dreams in a Time of War
Africa


Years later when I read T.S. Eliot's line that April was the cruellest
month, I would recall what happened to me one April Day in 1954, in
chilly Limuru, the prime Estate of what, in 1902, another Eliot, Sir
Charles Eliot, then Governor of colonial Kenya, had set aside as White
Highlands. The Day came back to me, the now of it, vividly.

Ngugi said: "In writing one should hear all the whisperings, all the
shouting, all the crying, all the loving and all the hating of the
many voices in the past, and those voices will never speak to a writer
in a foreign language." Moving, honest and informative, this is a book
about the influence of stories, storytelling and storytellers. It is a
reminder that every generation, however beleaguered, can dream to
change the world: "Perhaps it is myth as much as fact that keeps
dreams alive in times of war."

read more






US president Donald Trump and Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta have finally spoken on the phone Quartz Africa
Law & Politics


Yesterday (March 7) US president Donald Trump spoke with Kenyan
president Uhuru Kenyatta, his fourth phone call with an African leader
since taking office.

Given Kenya’s prominent military role in operations against Al
Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group Al Shabaab in Somalia, the talk
focused on trade and security in East Africa. The leaders “discussed
our economic partnership and mutual dedication to overcoming terrorism
and other regional security challenges through close cooperation,” a
readout of the call from the White House said. President Trump noted
his “appreciation for Kenya’s significant contributions to the African
Union Mission in Somalia and recognized Kenyan troops’ sacrifices in
the fight against al-Shabaab.”

By some estimations, the call came too late, given mixed feelings
between the US and Kenya. Kenya has been one of the US’s closest
allies on the African continent, dating back to the Cold War when
Kenya was one of few newly independent African countries to adopt a
pro-Western stance and allow US military on its bases. The country is
one of the top recipients of US aid, around $1 billion a year, much of
that dedicated to counterterrorism efforts. And Kenyans are one of the
fastest growing immigrant groups in the US.

One critic called the omission of East Africa’s largest economy from
the list a “failure of Kenyan diplomacy.”

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Moscow's Moves in Syria: 5 Messages Russia Is Sending to the World National Interest
Law & Politics


As Russian ships and planes continue to deposit additional personnel
and equipment in Syria, here are five geopolitical messages Russian
president Vladimir Putin is sending to the world:

One: Reports of Russia’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. In
other words, the narrative that Western sanctions plus falling oil
prices combined with China’s economic slowdown have brought the
Kremlin to the edge of collapse is quite premature. Russia has only a
fraction of U.S. global power projection capabilities but in its
ability to send forces to Syria it still ranks among a select few
countries—with more European countries prepared to fall off that
list—who can send and sustain military forces beyond their immediate
borders. The Kremlin is clearly signaling that it plans to take an
active role in setting the agenda in the Middle East—and not to
passively accept an American vision for how the future should unfold.

Second: Putin is making it clear that he will not accept Washington's
default position that the removal of a brutal strongman from power is
a path to greater long-term stability in the Middle East. And while
the United States and Europe continue to debate their next moves,
particularly in the wake of the migrant crisis, Russia is prepared to
act on its assessment that more direct military assistance to aid
Assad in combating the Islamic State is the best way to end the
conflict. Putin has repeatedly indicated that if the goal of Western
policy is to reduce the flow of refugees and decrease the threat of
Islamic terrorism gaining a new Afghanistan-style base of operations,
then the experience of Iraq and Libya suggests that overthrowing Assad
and hoping the opposition can form a more effective and stable state
administration will not achieve these ends. Having reached this
conclusion, Putin is uninterested in asking for the West's permission
or Washington's blessing.

Third: Russia is more confident of its position in Ukraine. The uptick
in violence over the summer has receded, with the cease-fire again
largely appearing to be holding. At the same time, Ukraine’s ongoing
domestic political and economic woes suggest that there will be no
major breakthrough that will solidify the Maidan revolution and put
the country on an irreversible path towards closer integration with
the Euro-Atlantic world. Instead, things appear to be settling down
into a protracted frozen conflict where Moscow retains most of the
leverage.

Forth: The Kremlin enforces its red lines. Just as Moscow would not
permit the separatists to face catastrophic defeat last summer in
Ukraine, Russia has signaled that it will not sit by and allow Bashar
al- Assad to be overthrown or removed by outside military action. With
more Russian forces on the ground, and reportedly augmenting Assad's
air defense capabilities, the risk calculus for any sort of U.S. or
NATO action against Assad's government has dramatically increased.
Even more limited proposals; such as enforcing a no-fly zone to create
protected space on the ground for refugees now opens up the
possibility for a clash with Russian forces.

And Fifth: Russia's willingness to put "boots on the ground" in Syria,
in contrast to a increasingly desperate search on Washington's part
for local proxies willing and able to fight both Assad and ISIS and
the reluctance of key U.S. allies to take on more of the burden,
serves several purposes. It reassures Russian partners that Moscow is
prepared to meet its pledges even if there is a cost in terms of
resources, lives, and reputation. This has not gone unnoticed in
places like Egypt and Azerbaijan, where governments question the depth
of the American commitment to their well-being. For Middle Eastern
countries that have opposed Russian policy in Syria, Putin's decision
to up the ante may lead them to reassess whether the path to a viable
settlement resides not in Washington, soon to be increasingly
distracted by an election campaign, but through Moscow.

Putin's decision reflects an assessment that the risk of greater
Russian involvement in Syria is outweighed by the dangers to Russian
interests if Assad should fall. Russia will not be persuaded by
strongly worded demarches to reverse its deployment. The United
States, in charting its response, needs to be guided by a similar
calculation of the ends it hopes to achieve with the means it is
prepared to commit.

read more







Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0607
Dollar Index 101.93
Japan Yen 115.41
Swiss Franc 1.0126
Pound 1.2153
Aussie 0.7515
India Rupee 66.675
South Korea Won 1158.63
Brazil Real 3.1929
Egypt Pound 17.5495
South Africa Rand 13.3150

read more







Oil Drops Below $50 for First Time Since December on Supply Glut [Oil Producers to come under pressure again]
Law & Politics


Oil dropped below $50 for the first time since December after concerns
that OPEC’s output cuts aren’t tempering a surplus in the U.S.
triggered the biggest slump in more than a year.

Futures dropped as much as 3 percent in New York after losing 5.7
percent the previous three sessions. Stockpiles rose 8.2 million to
the highest level in weekly government data since 1982. Harold Hamm,
the U.S. shale oil billionaire, warned on Wednesday that the industry
could “kill” the crude market if it embarks on another spending binge.

read more



Iron ore's rally is showing signs of cracking @business
Commodities


@JavierBlas2  #Oil isn't the only commodity under pressure.
#Copper is down roughly 7% from its most recent peak, despite strikes
at top mines

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas2/status/839928480007655424

This $2.4 Million Convertible Is Among the Most Outrageous Cars
Today @luxury

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-08/new-pagani-huayra-roadster-convertible-price-specs-photos

The super-limited Pagani Huayra Roadster ranks right up there with the
fastest, too.

A perforated column of caviar beads sit in the center of a bottle
of L’Orbe vodka.Photographer: Marlene Awaad/Bloomberg

http://bloom.bg/2m8UNWF

read more



President Joseph Kabila would help Congo if he went off-road
Africa


Few leaders have been in power so long yet made so little impression
David Pilling

No one knows what Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s
overstayer-in-chief, spends his days doing. Few presidents who have
been in power so long can have made so little impression.

Mr Kabila, who assumed power at the age of 29 when his father,
Laurent, was assassinated, rarely makes speeches or appears in public.
According to former aides he spends much of the time holed up in his
riverside mansion, occasionally sneaking out to indulge in his
favourite pastime of off-road driving. At least that is a hobby in
keeping with the state of his western-Europe-sized country. After 16
years in power, Congo still has virtually no all-weather roads.

Given his seeming lack of appetite for leadership, it is not exactly
clear why he is clinging on to power so dearly. The best guess is that
he fears his safety and voluminous wealth could be put in jeopardy
should he step down. The largest, and potentially richest, country in
sub-Saharan Africa, with huge mineral resources and enough
hydroelectric power to light up the continent, has never had a
peaceful transfer of power.

Last year, Mr Kabila was supposed to step down after presidential
elections due by December 2016. But December came and went with no
election — and precious little explanation from Mr Kabila. When people
came out on the street to protest, what little exists of the Congolese
state answered in the only way it knows how: it shot them.

On December 31, after what had been a year of paralysis in the run-up
to the phantom election, something improbable happened. The
influential Catholic church, perhaps the only respected institution in
the land, hammered out a deal between Mr Kabila’s government and the
opposition led by Étienne Tshisekedi. Mr Kabila agreed to appoint a
prime minister from the opposition and begin in earnest the process of
organising an election to be held by this December. At that point he
would step down.

People thought the agreement was too good to be true. And so it has
turned out. With unfortunate timing, Tshisekedi, the standard-bearer
of the opposition for 40 years, made the worst move of his long
career. He died. That has robbed the whole process of momentum. Since
then, weeks have passed in an unseemly wrangling over his funeral
arrangements. Mr Kabila worries that hundreds of thousands could turn
out to greet the fallen opposition hero. Tshisekedi’s corpse remains
stranded in a Brussels morgue.

Meanwhile, Mr Kabila is doing what he does best. Nothing. There has
been no move to appoint a prime minister. The government is saying it
is broke, which is true. It cannot afford the supposed $1.8bn cost of
running an election.

The only opposition figure left standing with national credibility is
Moïse Katumbi, a popular businessman, former governor of mineral-rich
Katanga province and, most important, chairman of the Bulldozers,
Congo’s best supported football team. People think Mr Katumbi can run
Congo like a business and repeat the success he had in Katanga on a
national scale.

But Mr Katumbi’s position is not a whole lot better than Tshisekedi’s
was. Like him, he is stuck outside the country. If he returns to Congo
he faces a three-year jail sentence, delivered in absentia, on what
looks like a nakedly cooked-up effort to shut him down. In London this
week, Mr Katumbi said he would fly home when the time was right.
Evidently that is not now. “If I go home and get shot like a snake,
what is Congo going to achieve from that? Nothing,” he said.

Congo has fallen off the world’s radar. But the vast and lawless
country has the capacity to destabilise half a continent. Well run, it
could energise and invigorate it. Sadly, that has not happened yet.

In the 1990s, as the kleptocratic rein of the US-supported Mobutu Sese
Seko staggered to a tragic close, eight neighbouring powers, including
Angola and Rwanda, were sucked into a conflict in which an astonishing
5m perished.

The best that can be said for Mr Kabila is that, under him, a shaky
stability has returned. Yet that stability is by no means guaranteed.
The mood in Kinshasa, the vast pulsing capital, is pressure-cooker
like.

Sporadic violence plagues other parts of the country, especially the
east where numerous rebel groups continue to cause mayhem. In central
Kasai province, soldiers were caught on a video that surfaced last
month gunning down at least a dozen unarmed civilians on a mud road.

All this passes for normal in Congo. Mr Kabila should do his country a
favour by doing something abnormal. Presidentially, he should go
off-road.

read more


"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street"
Africa


In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in
other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,
10000?
This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes
of the event.

read more



06-JUN-2016 President Kabila, however, outwitted Katumbi by removing him from the street
Africa


06-JUN-2016 President Kabila, however, outwitted Katumbi by removing
him from the street and the Congo entirely. is might well prove a
cleverly administered technical knock-out.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.84% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.3150 [Big ZAR down move yesterday]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.5495

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

africanews Nigeria: Buhari returns home after UK medical leave
@Africa_IsRising

https://twitter.com/Africa_IsRising/status/840123467559198724

Buhari returns home Friday — Presidency @intellectviews

https://twitter.com/intellectviews/status/839987003299106817

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.34% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.80% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more





Kenya wants to double U.S. coffee shipments
Kenyan Economy


Africa’s fifth-biggest coffee producer exported 6.1 million kilograms
(13.4 million pounds) of the beans to the U.S. in 2015-16, from 7
million kilograms a year earlier, accounting for 14 percent of total
coffee exports. Kenya wants about 30 percent of its crop to end up in
the U.S. by end-2019, he said.

Germany bought the most specialty Kenyan coffee in the last season at
8.17 million kilograms, followed by Belgium with 7.4 million
kilograms. While Kenya is a tiny grower compared with regional
producers such as Ethiopia and Uganda, its beans are highly sought
after for their acidity, and often used in blends to improve coffee
from other origins.

Average export prices to the U.S. were the highest in 2015-16 at $296
per 50-kilogram bag, 18 percent higher than to Germany, according to
government statistics.

The nation’s produce will be showcased as a “portrait country” at this
year’s Specialty Coffee Association of America symposium in Seattle,
the home of Starbucks Corp., exposing it to more than 12,000
producers, roasters, brewers and buyers in attendance. This follows a
delegation of American buyers that visited Kenyan coffee-growing
regions in November.

Coffee exports rose 6 percent to 44,400 metric tons for the 2015-16
season, earning Kenya $206 million. Sales to the U.S. accounted for
$32.8 million in the same period.

read more


Bamburi Cement reports FY 16 EPS -0.345% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           146.00
Total Shares Issued:          362959275.00
Market Capitalization:        52,992,054,150
EPS:             14.44
PE:                 10.11

The largest cement manufacturing company in the region.

FY Turnover 38.034b vs. 39.200b -2.974%
FY Cost of sales [24.790b] vs. [26.670b] -7.049%
FY Gross profit 13.244b vs. 12.530b +5.698%
FY Operating expenses [5.375b] vs. [5.251b] +2.361%
FY Operating profit 7.869b vs. 7.279b +8.106%
FY Investment income 369m vs. 374m -1.337%
FY Profit before tax 8.271b vs. 8.458b -2.211%
FY Profit for the year 5.890b vs. 5.872b +0.307%
EPS 14.44 vs. 14.49 -0.345%
Total assets 33.765b vs. 34.337b -1.666%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 6.972b vs. 8.453b -17.520%
Final dividend 6.00/ share [worth 4.09% of yield]
Interim dividend  6.00/share

Company Commentary


Operating profit +8% versus 2015
''competitive operating environment''
a marginal reduction in volumes into inland Africa export markets and
intense competition particularly in the individual home builder
segment impacting prices in some markets
higher volumes in the infrastructure and contractor segment in the key
markets of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
cost management measures
a tight focus on energy costs and plant efficiency Projects in Kenya
and Uganda despite higher inventory provisions

Conclusions

Fairly valued with a mouth-watering dividend yield of 8.2%

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -10.12% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -7.38% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



"We are pioneer mining country. The CS Dan Kazungu has brought sanity to the docket"
Kenyan Economy


“We are pioneer mining country. The CS Dan Kazungu has brought sanity
to the docket and I believe we have a significant mining future ahead
of us. We need policy making consistency and we need to hitch our star
in firms like Base Titanium who pumped in $310m down in Kwale,”Mr
Satchu said.

OSAC‏Verified account @OSACState  🇰🇪 #Kenya: US Embassy notes
increase in sporadic, isolated violence in #Laikipia & #Baringo
Counties, N of #Nairobi.

https://twitter.com/OSACState/status/839883169784598531

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The International markets are fixated on the US Non Farm Payrolls
number that is released today.
A US rate hike this month is a ''racing certainty''
Crude Oil in New York fell to its lowest levels since December and
this is singularly helpful to Kenya Inc.
Gold has fallen below 1,200.00 dollars an ounce.
In Africa, President Buhari returned to Nigeria after a very very long
absence in London.
The Kenya Shilling is locked at a 9 week high of 102.615.
The Nairobi All Share surged +2.186% for its best one day % gain in
2017. On Wednesday this week the All Share closed at a May 2013 Low on
wednesday this week
The Nairobi NSE20 Index pushed +11.93 better to close at 2963.08.
Equity Turnover was lackadaisical at 398.638m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom which closed yesterday at a 1 Year Low of 16.00, predictably
rebounded violently to close at 16.90 +5.625% and traded 16.120m
shares worth 272.662m. Safaricom remains -11.28% in 2017 and the price
rebound has plenty of upside scope now that the Regulator has had to
back down from what can only be characterised as an egregious position
and thats putting it kindly.

WPP-Scangroup rebounded +5.88% to close at 18.00 and traded 305,100
shares. WPP-ScanGroup is close to unchanged for the year.

Home Africa closed unchanged at an all time low of 0.80 and has sunk
-33.33% in 2017. The market cap at this price 324.2m shillings.
Insiders should look to take Home Africa private.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB rallied a further +3.508% to close at a 13 week High of 29.50. KCB
is paying a 3 shilling Final dividend which is worth 10.16% of yield
and coupon clippers will keep it bid. KCB has rallied an eye-popping
+15.686% this week and the returns accelerated ''bigly'' after the FY
Results and dividend were sighted.
Equity firmed +1.89% to close at 27.00 and was trading 28.00 +5.66% at
the closing Bell. Equity traded 1.429m shares and is -6.66% in 2017
ahead of its FY 16 Earnings release next week.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Bamburi Cement reported FY 16 Earnings this morning. FY Turnover
slipped -2.974%, FY Gross Profit increased +5.698% and FY Profit After
Tax improved +0.307%. Bamburi is paying a 6 shilling final Dividend
[in addition to a 6 shilling interim already paid]. Bamburi spoke to a
''competitive operating environment'' and  a marginal reduction in
volumes into inland Africa export markets and intense competition
particularly in the individual home builder segment impacting prices
in some markets. They also said ''a tight focus on energy costs and
plant efficiency Projects in Kenya and Uganda'' offset ''higher
inventory provisions'' Bamburi is making some big ticket capex
expenditure soon but for now the dividend yield is 8.2%. Bamburi
Cement firmed a shilling to close at 147.00 but remains -8.125% in
2017.

Total Kenya rallied +5.88% to close at 18.00 and probably got
encouraged by KenolKobil's upbeat FY Earnings Release.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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