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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 28th of March 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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27-MAR-2017 :: April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land @thestarkenya

I have been reading Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o and in his book ‘’Dreams in a
Time of War’’, he writes: ‘’Years later when I read T.S. Eliot’s line
that April was the cruellest month, I would recall what happened to me
one April Day in 1954, in chilly Limuru...The Day came back to me, the
now of it, vividly.’’

And then I jumped to the Opening Lines of the Poem to which Ngũgĩ is referring:

‘’April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.’’

And here we are approaching April and on the back of my mind, I was
thinking ‘’will it be cruel?’’

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Sports + FL sunset sky #photooftheday #photography #ThePhotoHour #Florida #LoveFL @maryjacquel

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is
granted, all else follows.” ― George Orwell, 1984

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Zebras cross a road in Amboseli national park, Kenya. Photograph: Goran Tomasevic/Reuters

“We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness.” ― George Orwell, 1984

“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together
again in new shapes of your own choosing.” ― George Orwell, 1984

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The Arab Spring and the Western Winter
Law & Politics

There are many striking parallels between the “Arab Spring” that began
in 2010 and the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, the election of US
President Donald Trump, and the far-right resurgence across Europe. In
each case, an old order fell, and progressive parties have been too
weak to counter the emergence of authoritarian and xenophobic forms of

The growing discontent with the status quo that underlay the Arab
uprisings of 2010-11 had many causes, and the opposition took both
progressive and conservative forms. Members of the middle class
resented their loss of dignity at the hands of an unaccountable elite.
Young people decried a future that looked especially bleak when
compared to the expectations of their parents’ generation. And
Islamists stoked moral opposition to the loss of ethical values in

These are all recurring themes in ongoing debates across the West,
with its growing population of disaffected whites, displaced workers,
and frustrated young people. Over time, as economic liberalism has
crowded out longstanding principles of equality and social solidarity,
vast wealth disparities have emerged, corrupting many Western
countries’ politics.

Popular revolts – in the streets and at the ballot box – have so far
failed to deliver an alternative governing framework that offers
credible solutions to the political, social, and economic problems
that have engulfed Western and Middle Eastern societies.

In the Arab world, the explosion of popular anger dislodged
long-entrenched regimes. But the old autocrats had worked hard to
prevent a credible opposition from ever being conceived. The 2010-11
revolutions were leaderless, and thus could not fill the resulting
political void. Instead, armies, tribes, sectarian groups, and
religious parties quickly came to the fore.

The Middle East’s new autocrats are consolidating power with
divide-and-rule tactics that have polarized citizens along sectarian
and identity lines. Owing to widespread feelings of personal
insecurity, many citizens have opted for sect over society, and for
security over civil rights.

In the West today, populist politicians with no realistic plans for
actually building a better future are emulating Middle Eastern
autocrats. They win power by stoking fear of the “other” – refugees,
Muslims, or foreign terrorists – and promising to establish security
through force. Once in power, they begin to consolidate their rule
accordingly. Democratic institutions may be resilient to populist
governance; but, as we are already witnessing in the US, these
institutions will soon be tested, and undoubtedly weakened before all
is said and done.

Restoring optimism, in both the Middle East and the West, will depend
on whether intellectuals, unions, progressive parties, and
civil-society groups can build a common political base and offer a
shared vision for the future. This will require not only novel
solutions to emerging problems, but also a credible means to implement
change democratically.

At the very least, this new age of resistance and revolution has
brought out into the open problems that were once left to fester in
the dark. As a result, we now know that economic policies should be
geared toward inclusion; material consumption will have to be
curtailed; and democracy must be protected from the malign influence
of concentrated wealth and entrenched interests.

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Jared Kushner to speak to Senate committee over his meeting with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak Independent
Law & Politics

Jared Kushner will face questioning as part of a Senate Intelligence
Committee investigation into contact between Trump aides and Russian

Mr Kushner, the President’s son-in-law and Senior Adviser, will be the
closest person to the President to be questioned on the alleged links
to Russia during the 2016 campaign.

The 36-year-old, who has been tapped to lead the new White House
Office of Innovation, met with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak at
Trump Tower in December.

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27-MAR-2017 :: What is also clear is that for all the Trump's distractions, "incidental" wire-taps are set to confirm a simply unprecedented level of "non-linear" coordination
Law & Politics

What is also clear is that for all the Trump’s distractions,
‘’incidental’’ wire-taps [ The US taps the Russian ambassador he walks
into Trump Tower (through the back door) for a meeting with his senior
advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner (which Kushner does not declare)]
are set to confirm a simply unprecedented level of ‘’non-linear’’
coordination between Team Trump and a Foreign Power.  The failure to
repeal Obamacare speaks to a president who is out of his depth and New
York Times columnist Maureen Dowd described him thus ‘’because you’re
sitting around in a bathrobe getting your information from
wackadoodles on @FoxNews’’.  Therefore, sell the dollar. Trump has
injected political risk into the US equation in a way that we have not
witnessed previously.

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China can deploy warplanes on artificial islands any time: think tank @Reuters
Law & Politics

China appears to have largely completed major construction of military
infrastructure on artificial islands it has built in the South China
Sea and can now deploy combat planes and other military hardware there
at any time, a U.S. think tank said on Monday.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), part of Washington's
Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the work on Fiery
Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly Islands included naval,
air, radar and defensive facilities.

The think tank cited satellite images taken this month, which its
director, Greg Poling, said showed new radar antennas on Fiery Cross
and Subi.

"So look for deployments in the near future," he said.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0856
Dollar Index 99.23
Japan Yen 110.65
Swiss Franc 0.9855
Pound 1.2549
Aussie 0.7596
India Rupee 65.075
South Korea Won 1111.58
Brazil Real 3.1267
Egypt Pound 18.0513
South Africa Rand 12.8679

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Modi's Alarming Power Grab @BV
Emerging Markets

Modi's chosen path for India is far less liberal than earlier hoped.

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India's Minority Report: biometric ID scans make sci-fi a reality @FT
Emerging Markets

More than 1bn have had their eyes and fingerprints scanned to access
state benefits

India has the world’s largest domestic biometric identification
system, known as Aadhaar. Since 2010, the government has collected
fingerprints and iris scans from more than 1bn residents, and each has
been assigned a 12-digit identification number.

The scheme is championed by Nandan Nilekani, the billionaire
co-founder of IT company Infosys. It was initially conceived to ensure
poor Indians received subsidised food entitlements and other welfare
benefits that were previously siphoned off by unscrupulous
intermediaries. It was also seen as offering poor Indians, many of
whom lack birth certificates, with a portable ID that can be used
anywhere in the country.

Last week, the government issued a rule requiring an Aadhaar number
for filing tax returns, ostensibly to improve tax compliance. It has
also decided that all cell phone numbers must be linked to an Aadhaar
number by 2018. Even Indian Railways has plans to demand Aadhaar from
those booking train tickets online.

What was once touted as an initiative to improve delivery of welfare
suddenly now seems like the foundation of a surveillance state — and I
admit the prospect of putting my own biometrics in the database leaves
me uneasy.

“Biometrics is being weaponised,” says Sunil Abraham, executive
director of the Bangalore-based Centre for Internet and Society. “What
you need to be worried about is that someone will clean out your bank
account or frame you in a crime,” he says.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta, director of the Centre for Policy Research, has
written of the “conversion of Aadhaar from a tool of citizen
empowerment to a tool of state surveillance and citizen



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Zuma Batters South Africa's Credibility by Ordering Gordhan Home

South African President Jacob Zuma’s order for Finance Minister Pravin
Gordhan to cancel an investor roadshow in London and the U.S. left the
nation’s credibility in tatters.

The rand plunged more than any other major currency after Zuma, 74,
told Gordhan to return home a day after he departed for the week of
meetings. The Presidency gave no reason for calling off the trip,
which the Treasury said had prior approval, and the ruling African
National Congress said it hadn’t received prior notice of the

Speculation that Gordhan is on the verge of being fired has swirled
for months, as he clashed with Zuma over the management of state
companies and the national tax agency. While Gordhan has led efforts
to keep spending in check and fend off a junk credit rating, Zuma
wants to embark on “radical economic transformation” that he says will
tackle racial inequality and widespread poverty.

The rand weakened the most since Nov. 10, dropping 3.1 percent against
the dollar to 12.8160 at 10:18 p.m. in Johannesburg. The government’s
rand-denominated bonds due 2026 fell, driving the yield 33 basis
points higher to 8.7 percent, the biggest jump since October.

If Gordhan or his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, are fired, “the selloff will
be vigorous,” said Jonathan Hertz, chief executive officer of
Peregrine Holdings Ltd., which has 105 billion rand in assets under
management. “There will be a shudder in the market. I think you could
see 14.”

“The damage to investor sentiment to South Africa as a result of the
president’s decision should not be underestimated,” Business
Leadership South Africa said in a statement. “Coming in the middle of
meetings where business and the National Treasury have been making the
case for South Africa, this action has pulled the rug from under our

Zuma named Gordhan, 67, finance minister in December 2015 after his
decision to install a then little-known lawmaker to replace the
respected Nhlanhla Nene, which became known as “Nenegate,” hammered
the nation’s bonds and currency and spurred ANC and business leaders
to plead with him to reconsider.

Moody’s Investors Service, which rates South Africa’s debt at two
levels above junk and with a negative outlook, is scheduled to publish
a review of the nation’s creditworthiness on April 7. S&P Global
Ratings and Fitch Ratings Ltd. kept their assessments at the lowest
investment grade late last year.


@SAPresident always pushing the Envelope.

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Editorial | SA lives dangerously as reckless Zuma orders Pravin home @BDliveSA

Pravin Gordhan is coming home.


ZAPIRO: Waiting for Gordhan


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.12% 2017


Dollar versus Rand 5 day Chart INO 12.8679 [Thats Political Risk
right there]


@gotravelbug  I love the #gardenroute. It never disappoints.


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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.0513

Nigeria central bank will sell dollars to private individuals at 360
naira per dollar, it said in a tweet on Monday.

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Nigeria overnight lending rate hit 100 pct this week after dollar sales - traders

LAGOS, March 24 (Reuters) - Nigeria's overnight lending rate rose as
high as 100 percent this week after the central bank withdrew naira
liquidity to offset dollar purchases, but it fell sharply on Friday as
the government disbursed budget funds through the banking system.

Overnight rates fell to 10 percent on Friday after the government
passed 285 billion naira ($928 mln) for February allocations through
the money market, reducing borrowing costs.

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It is these electronic dollars, nicknamed "zollars" by economists

It is these electronic dollars, nicknamed "zollars" by economists,
that are raising fears that Zimbabwe might be heading for its second
financial collapse in a decade.

"It's a Ponzi scheme, a pyramid scheme," former finance minister
Tendai Biti told Reuters. "The implosion is coming. You can't defy
economics. You can't defy fundamentals."

It is these electronic dollars, nicknamed "zollars" by economists,
that are raising fears that Zimbabwe might be heading for its second
financial collapse in a decade.

"It's a Ponzi scheme, a pyramid scheme," former finance minister
Tendai Biti told Reuters. "The implosion is coming. You can't defy
economics. You can't defy fundamentals."

"Firms' prices reflect that one U.S. dollar in hard cash is equivalent
to $1.30 in bond notes, meaning that the surrogate currency has
already lost 30 percent of its value," Chantelle Matthee, an analyst
at NKC African Economics in neighboring South Africa, said in a note
earlier this month.

In the banking system, a devaluation also appears underway. Assessing
the true value of zollars is difficult but economists have revived a
gauge used during the hyperinflation era - the Old Mutual Implied

This compares share prices of the Old Mutual insurance firm in Harare
and in London, where it has its primary listing. Toward the end of
last year, around the time the bond note plan was announced, the
Harare shares began trading at a sizeable premium.

Old Mutual in Harare closed at $3.51 last week compared with the
sterling equivalent of about $2.77 on the London Stock Exchange. So,
Zimbabweans need more dollars than people in London to buy the same
shares. While a number of factors may be at play, this suggests their
currency is worth less, even though its face value is officially at
par to the dollar.

Meanwhile, signs of inflation grow. The basic measure of money supply
jumped 40 percent last year, while bank deposits grew from $5.6
billion to $6.5 billion despite the stagnant economy.

"The government is not in control," said University of Zimbabwe
economics professor Tony Hawkins. "Events are controlling them and it
will be a hard landing when it comes."

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25-JUL-2016 Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the Edge that Hunter S. Thompson described

“The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''

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MPC retains CBR at 10.0 percent @CBKKenya
Kenyan Economy

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on March 27, 2017, to review
the outcome of its policy decisions and recent economic developments.
The meeting was held against a backdrop of a sharp increase in food
prices due to the prevailing drought in some parts of the country, the
continued depressed growth of private sector credit, and uncertainties
in the global economy.

 Month-on-month overall inflation rose to 9.0 percent in February
from 7.0 percent in January 2017, almost entirely due to increases in
food prices. Inflation for all other categories in the CPI basket was
below 5 percent. Food inflation rose to 16.5 percent in February from
12.5 percent in January, as a result of the drought conditions. The
main food items driving inflation in February were tomatoes, kales
(sukuma wiki), sugar, maize, oranges, cabbages, Irish potatoes, and
milk. Food prices are expected to remain elevated in March and April
due to the dry weather conditions, but ease with the long rains. The
3-month annualised non-food-non-fuel inflation remained relatively
stable, suggesting that demand pressures were muted.

 The foreign exchange market has remained stable. This has been
supported by a narrower current account deficit mainly due to lower
imports of petroleum products, machinery and transport equipment.
Additionally, inflows from horticulture, tourism, and diaspora
remittances are resilient.

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Danone buys Kenyattas out of Brookside Tanzania
Kenyan Economy

06-FEB-2017 Connecting the dots, Food Prices, the Weather and Laikipia


BREAKING: KDF airstrikes leave over 500 cows dead in Laikipia
InsecurityKE 🇰🇪‏ @InsecurityKE


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Jubilee Insurance Co reports FY 16 EPS +17.096% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           473.00
Total Shares Issued:          59895000.00
Market Capitalization:        28,330,335,000
EPS:             50.00
PE:               9.52

FY Gross written premium 33.809781b vs. 30.158675b +12.106%
FY Gross earned premium 26.907645b vs. 23.029932b +16.838%
FY Net insurance premium revenue 17.581229b vs. 14.876157b +18.184%
FY Other revenue 7.122633b vs. 6.821757b +4.411%
FY Total income 24.703862b vs. 21.697914b +13.854%
FY Net insurance benefits and claims [13.965531b] vs. [11.565275b] +20.754%
FY Total expenses and commission [7.606378b] vs. [7.004651b] +8.590%
FY Result of operating activities 3.131953b vs. 3.127988b +0.127%
FY Share results of associates 1.430752b vs. 1.052012b +36.001%
FY Group profit before tax 4.562705b vs. 4.145139b +10.074%
FY Net profit 3.675947b 3.121093b +17.778%
EPS 50.0 vs. 42.7 +17.096%
Total equity 21.421669b vs. 20.381207b +5.105%
Insurance liabilities 66.607490b vs. 59.014996+12.865%
Final dividend 7.50/ share
Total dividend 8.50/ share

Company Commentary

FY PAT +18%
Gross written Premium 33.81b +12%
Group Life business +59%
Individual Life Business +36%
Medical Business +16%
Insurance Result 1.97b +15%
Bonus share issue of 1 share for every ten shares held.
Final Dividend of 7.50 per share + 1 shilling interim dividend


Strong Results.

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@Barclays_Kenya was "pushing at an open door" by launching a gold-based ETF FT's @johnaglionby
Kenyan Economy

Aly-Khan Satchu, an investment advisor in Nairobi, agreed, saying
Barclays was “pushing at an open door” by launching a gold-based ETF.
“There’s clearly demand for gold here because people see it as a store
of value,” he said.

It will also serve as an indicator of demand for more complex and
innovative products in Kenya, Mr Satchu said. Last week, after more
than a year’s delay, the government launched M-Akiba, a platform
through which retail investors can buy government bonds via their
mobile phones for as little as Ks3,000 ($29). The initial product is a
three-year infrastructure bond that is due to start trading on April

Geoffrey Odundo, chief executive of the Nairobi Securities Exchange,
said the exchange, which is the third largest in sub-Saharan Africa
after Johannesburg and Lagos, plans to launch a derivatives market
later this year.

Mr Satchu said:

It makes sense to be adding complexity to the stock exchange. I think
that with the ETF they’re testing the water to see what kind of
appetite there is for this kind of thing.

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I & M Holdings Ltd reports FY 16 EPS +8.411% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:
Closing Price:           93.50
Total Shares Issued:        413,405,369
Market Capitalization:      38,653,402,001
EPS:             18.56
PE:                 5.037

FY Kenya government securities 21.592575b vs. 15.670421b +37.792%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 134.675332b vs. 127.823778b +5.360%
FY Total assets 210.542393b vs. 191.656837b +9.854%
FY Customer deposits 146.514406b vs. 132.980678b +10.177%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 37.029748 vs. 31.448133b +17.749%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 19.217129b vs. 17.742321b +8.312%
FY Total interest income 24.451398b vs. 21.869337b +11.807%
FY Customer deposit interest expense [7.712342b] vs. [8.017621b] -3.808%
FY Total interest expense [8.929722b] vs. [9.222172b] -3.171%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 15.521676b vs. 12.647165b +22.729%
FY Fees and commission on loans and advanced 1.669783b vs. 1.646458b +1.417%
FY Foreign exchange trading income/ [loss] 1.797461b vs. 1.852429b -2.967%
FY Total Non-interest expense 5.234287b vs. 4.915239b +6.491%
FY Total operating income 20.755963b vs. 17.562404b +18.184%
FY Loan loss provision [2.956979b] vs. [0.982495b] +200.966%
FY Staff costs [3.595375b] vs. [3.266810b] +10.058%
FY Other operating expenses [2.493228b] vs. [2.078688b] +19.942%
FY Total other operating expenses [10.152775b] vs. [7.394743b] +37.297%
FY Profit/ [loss] before tax and exceptional items 10.603188b vs.
10.167661b +4.283%
FY Profit/ [loss] after tax and exceptional items 7.760162b vs.
7.144411b +8.619%
Basic and diluted EPS 18.56 vs. 17.12 +8.411%
Dividend per share 3.50 vs. 3.50 –
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 11.868769b vs. 4.378074b


Final Dividend 3.50 unchanged from FY 15


On a PE pf 5.00 its inexpensive.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.81
Kenyan Economy

The shilling will confound the naysayers through 2017. Oil is the key signal.


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -1.44% 2017


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.76% 2017


@StanChartKE has been the Bull Outlier at the @NSEKenya Securities
Exchange and is +16.93% in 2017 - FY 16 here ->


.@KCBGroup firmed +2.38% to close at 32.25 is +12.17% in 2017 has
rallied +27.77% in March


.@NationMediaGrp has rallied a startling +18.82% in March


@SafaricomLtd rallied +1.355% to close at a 6 and 1/2 week high of 18.70


Fahari real estate fund plans to raise Sh9bn in cash call


STANLIB FAHARI I-REIT share price data -6.43% 2017


28-MAR-2017 :: Acquisition of 24.99% of shares completed by
@KuramoCapMgmt in @Transcentury


@Transcentury share price data here


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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Kenyan firms freeze new hiring, suspend pay rise @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

Flat or declining sales coupled with growing concern over the August 8
General Election have left dark clouds hanging over the labour market,
forcing the majority of employers to freeze plans to hire or raise
workers’ salaries, a newly-released report says.
The job market survey, commissioned by the Institute of Human Resource
Management (IHRM), found that 73 per cent of employers across 12
sectors have stopped new hiring.
More than 57 per cent of the firms also indicated that they will not
increase employees’ pay this year while the remaining 43 per cent will
marginally adjust salaries to compensate for inflation.
Last week, the Treasury said the economy is likely to expand by six
per cent this year down from an initial forecast of 6.5 per cent,
pointing to a slowdown in private-sector credit growth.
The study found that reduced private sector credit uptake and the
freeze in expansion plans by investors awaiting the outcome of the
August elections had slowed down the creation of new jobs.
“The subdued political climate in an election year, coupled with a
slowdown in economic growth remains the biggest concerns for the
majority of organisations at 95.2 per cent,” says the study.
Lending to business and individuals grew a paltry 4.3 per cent in the
year to December 2016, down from 20.6 per cent a year earlier, making
it the slowest credit growth in more than 10 years.

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20-MAR-2017 :: Policy Making Agility is Key for a Thriving Economy
Kenyan Economy

And here people is a key issue between countries that win and
countries that lose. Its all about the speed that policy-making

Like Lao Tzu has said:“Men are born soft and supple; dead they are
stiff and hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are
brittle and dry.  Thus whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple
of death. Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life.  The
hard and stiff will be broken.  the soft and supple will prevail.”

This is not the time to be stiff and inflexible, this is the time to
be soft and supple.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2017

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