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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 23rd of March 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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The World's Best currency The Azeri Manat in 2017 @business

So far, the currency of the third-biggest oil producer in the former
Soviet Union has bucked a 10 percent drop in the price of Brent crude
since January, strengthening 13 percent in the period and beating
gains for Georgia’s lari and the Mexican peso, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. It traded 1 percent weaker on Wednesday.

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@ReutersWorld At least a dozen injured near UK parliament: Reuters photographer
Law & Politics

.@alykhansatchu  I went to Westminster School ~ I used to enjoy wandering around Parliament Square ~ I extend my deepest sympathies to London ~

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29-MAR-2016 Countries Pay Heavy Price for Less Costly Terror Attack @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


In the Financial Markets, there is a concept called ''Tail Risk'' -
Tail risk is the risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more
than 3 standard deviations from its current price. For example, in
early January, It took just 15 minutes on a Monday morning for South
Africa’s rand to plummet 9%. More than a year ago, the Swiss franc
surged almost 30 percent versus the euro after the central bank
abandoned its currency floor against the shared currency. The Examples
are numerous. If the markets are a mirror, then they are certainly
reflecting a New Normal around Volatility and Tail Risks.

Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said: "As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad

Therefore, my first Question is how big is the Tail Risk in our World
of more than 7b. Lets say 0.5% of 7b, thats 35m People! Drop that to
0.05% and you still have 3.5m People. So thats my First Point, the
absolute number of Folks who are prepared to cross the Edge is a big
absolute number.

''The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''
Hunter S. Thompson

Terrorists are waging Asymmetric warfare. They cannot stand Toe-to-Toe
with a conventional Army because they would be annihilated. However,
what they are doing is exploiting an asymettric opening.

How Much do you think the Brussels operation cost the Terrorists? Not
very much, I venture.

How much do you think the reaction has cost Belgium? More than a 100x.

If You look at it through the Prism of a Return on Investment, one
return Profile looks like a Go-Go Nasdaq stock pre the Crash [if we
assume the Pipe-Line of ''Byronic'' Heroes is limitless then we have
to appreciate the Terrorist Strategy is like a Free Option] and the
State's ROI looks seriously out of whack, its too expensive, it stalls
the entire Economy and more of the State's resources are diverted into


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@Greenpeace Do you think our environment should have the same legal rights as a human being? [YES]
Law & Politics

“Who you going to believe—me or your lyin’ eyes?” That classic Chico Marx line (from the 1933 classic, Duck Soup) 

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FBI uncovering evidence of treason. There is no other word for it. @RWPUSA
Law & Politics

05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."

05-DEC-2016 :: The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in

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FBI's Russian-influence probe includes a look at Breitbart, InfoWars news sites
Law & Politics

Federal investigators are examining whether far-right news sites
played any role last year in a Russian cyber operation that
dramatically widened the reach of news stories — some fictional — that
favored Donald Trump’s presidential bid, two people familiar with the
inquiry say.

Operatives for Russia appear to have strategically timed the computer
commands, known as “bots,” to blitz social media with links to the
pro-Trump stories at times when the billionaire businessman was on the
defensive in his race against Democrat Hillary Clinton, these sources

Investigators examining the bot attacks are exploring whether the
far-right news operations took any actions to assist Russia’s
operatives. Their participation, however, wasn’t necessary for the
bots to amplify their news through Twitter and Facebook.

The investigation of the bot-engineered traffic, which appears to be
in its early stages, is being driven by the FBI’s Counterintelligence
Division, whose inquiries rarely result in criminal charges and whose
main task has been to reconstruct the nature of the Kremlin’s cyber
attack and determine ways to prevent another.

“This may be one of the most highly impactful information operations
in the history of intelligence,” said one former U.S. intelligence
official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the
sensitivity of the matter.

Boosted by bots, the surge in readership for such websites amplified
Clinton’s negatives. Some stories falsely described her health
problems as dire. Jones said Monday that people gravitated to his
website “because we were the first to report Hillary Clinton falling
down.” He referred to Clinton appearing to collapse last Sept. 11
after visiting the World Trade Center memorial. She was diagnosed with

“The full impact of the bots was subterranean and corrosive,” Podesta,
Clinton’s campaign chairman, told McClatchy in an interview. “The
distribution channels were being flooded with this information. . . .
We perhaps underestimated the strategy of pushing fake news out
through social media and how it impacted the race.”

“Russia has again figured out from its old Soviet playbook that its
greatest weapon in the world is information,” said Lauren Goodrich,
senior Eurasia analyst at the Stratfor Corp., a global intelligence
firm based in Austin, Texas. “Its information and disinformation
campaigns have skyrocketed.”

She said the Kremlin’s budget for “public information” had quadrupled
this year as it mounted similar cyber attacks on behalf of right-wing
candidates in France, Germany and other European countries.

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05-DEC-2016 :: I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference
Law & Politics


I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support. Trump is a
linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his
opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb
— were devastating and terminal.  The first thing is plausible
deniability (and some folks here at home need to remember those
words). The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to
navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a
non-linear way. When you launch a social media campaign where a 100
bots repeat the same thing verbatim, like Mombasa did last week, then
your very linearity is a monumental ‘’look its me’’ sign.

Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in
Italy said:  is is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse
of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents
can broadcast live and over the top.  From feeding the hot-house
conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised
perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which
drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s,
what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.


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Japanese navy boosts overseas force projection capability with second big helicopter carrier
Law & Politics


Japan's second big helicopter carrier, the Kaga, entered service on
Wednesday, giving the nation's military greater ability to deploy
beyond its shores as it pushes back against China's growing influence
in Asia.

Accompanied by a military band, Maritime Self Defence Force commanders
took possession of the 248 meter (813.65 ft) long vessel at the Japan
Marine United (5411.T) (7013.T) shipyard in Yokohama near Tokyo, where
it was docked next to its sister ship the Izumo.

"China is attempting to make changes in the South China Sea with bases
and through acts that exert pressure is altering the status quo,
raising security concerns among the international community," Vice
Minister of Defence Takayuki Kobayashi said at the ceremony attend by
about 500 people

Japan's two biggest warships since World War Two are potent symbols of
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to give the military a bigger
international role. They are designated as helicopter destroyers to
keep within the bounds of a war-renouncing constitution that forbids
possession of offensive weapons.

In its biggest show of naval power in foreign waters in more than 70
years, Japan plans to dispatch the Izumo in May on a three-month tour
through the South China Sea, sources with knowledge of the plan told
Reuters earlier.

China claims almost all the disputed waters through which around $5
trillion of global sea-borne trade passes each year. Beijing's growing
military presence there has fueled concern in Tokyo and Washington.

Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei also claim parts
of the sea which has rich fishing grounds, oil and gas deposits. Japan
has no claims there, but is locked in an territorial dispute with
China over a group of islets in the neighboring East China Sea.

The addition of the Kaga means Japan will be able to mount overseas
operations more often in the future. It will be based in Kure western
Japan, which was home to Japan's most famous World War Two battleship,
the Yamato. The Izumo operates from Yokosuka near Tokyo, which is also
where of the U.S. Seventh Fleet's carrier, the Ronald Reagan is based.

The Japanese ships can operate up to nine helicopters each from their
decks. They resemble the amphibious assault carriers used by U.S.
Marines, but lack their well deck for launching landing craft and
other vessels.


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An empire built on Tao-tinis and sea bass satay. @luxury
World Of Finance


If there’s a venture with a projected shelf life of five minutes, it’s
a nightlife restaurant in New York’s Meatpacking District. The
exception? Tao Downtown. Since it opened in 2013, with heavy wooden
doors that look like they were airlifted in from an ancient Chinese
fort, the temple to Pan-Asian-style food and drinks has been a prime
Manhattan destination for athletes, celebrities, and businessmen and
women waving corporate cards to out-of-town families.

Alcohol makes up more than 50 percent of sales at Tao Downtown, an
astounding number compared with the typical 20-plus percent
elsewhere.Source: TAO Downtown
Each night, some 1,200 people stream through the David
Rockwell-designed, 22,000-square-foot, bilevel maze of dark
wood-paneled rooms decorated with candles and giant Buddhas. The
300-seat dining room is massive by New York standards; the new Union
Square Cafe, also designed by Rockwell, seats about 90. Tao Downtown
estimates it did more than 220,000 covers (aka customers) in
2016—significantly more than the population of Brooklyn’s Williamsburg
neighborhood. There’s almost always a line to get into the adjoining

According to an annual survey by Restaurant Business, Tao posted
almost $34 million in food and beverage sales in 2016. That’s the
highest-ranking spot for a non-chain restaurant in New York, and the
third-highest in the U.S. What’s in first place? Tao Asian Bistro in
Las Vegas, where total sales were just shy of $48 million. Third place
is actually a decline for Tao Downtown; in 2015 the club claimed the
list’s No. 2 spot with $38 million in sales. (This year, second place
went to the venerable Joe’s Stone Crab in Miami.) Even so, Tao Group
dominates the 2016 list; another of its New York restaurants, Lavo,
came in sixth with sales of $27.5 million. Tao Uptown, with $23
million in sales, came in 11th.


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World Of Finance

Starting in May, the world’s largest wealth manager will introduce an
annual fee of 0.6 percent on balances exceeding 1 million euros ($1.08
million), the bank told clients in a letter seen by Bloomberg. UBS
confirmed the content.

“This charge reflects our costs resulting from the continuing
extraordinarily low interest rates in the euro area and increased
liquidity regulations,” the bank said in the letter. Clients who don’t
agree to the conditions will see their accounts closed.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0796

Dollar Index 99.67

Japan Yen 111.12 Yen at 4 month high

Swiss Franc 0.9919

Pound 1.2483

Aussie 0.7658

India Rupee 65.445

South Korea Won 1121.23

Brazil Real 3.0861

Egypt Pound 18.3007

South Africa Rand 12.5275

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Brent crude slips below $50 for the first time since November @markets

Oil tightens its noose around the currency market as the rout deepens @business

01-DEC-2014 US Emerges As New Price Setter For Oil Market @TheStarKenya

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Iron Ore Takes a Battering as Bear Market Engulfs China Future


In Dalian, futures for September delivery lost 4.7 percent to 577 yuan
a ton, the lowest close since Jan. 9. Prices fell 15 percent on
Tuesday as the most-active contract rolled to September, and have now
lost more than 20 percent from last month’s closing high. In Shanghai,
rebar dropped for a fifth day.

Ore with 62 percent content in Qingdao fell to $84.99 a dry ton on
Wednesday, trimming the gain this year to 7.8 percent, according to
Metal Bulletin. The benchmark peaked at $94.86 on Feb. 21, the highest
since August 2014, amid optimism about consumption in China.

Emerging Markets


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Are the people in Africa really among the least happy in the world?
And if African countries do have a ‘happiness de cit’, what are the
prospects of Africa achieving happiness in the near future? These are
questions we shall try to address in this chapter.

Africa stands out as the unhappiest continent, being coloured almost
entirely in shades of glaring red (See Fig. 4.1).


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France warns against cuts to UN force in Congo before voting


UNITED NATIONS (AP) — France’s U.N. ambassador warned Tuesday against
cuts to the U.N. peacekeeping force in Congo when the country is
heading toward elections and facing an upsurge in violence and
deteriorating security.

Francois Delattre told reporters that the Security Council “shouldn’t
play with fire when it comes to such an important issue.”

The United States, the largest contributor to U.N. peacekeeping, is
seeking cuts and reviewing all 16 missions. The Congo mission, with
about 22,400 people including nearly 17,000 troops and over 1,350
police, is the biggest and costliest with a budget of $1.2 billion.


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As democracy retreats, famine makes a comeback FT


Famines are supposed to be a thing of the past. So it came as a shock
this month when the UN — citing the risk of starvation for 20m people
in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and north-east Nigeria — declared what
it called “the largest humanitarian crisis” since 1945.

Technically that is wrong. As horrible as current events are, worse
things have happened in this timeframe. Mao Zedong’s catastrophically
ill-conceived Great Leap Forward led to the starvation of perhaps 30m
people between 1958 and 1962. Hunger was so rampant that, according to
Jasper Becker, author of Hungry Ghosts, some people swapped babies so
they did not have to eat their own progeny. In Cambodia, Pol Pot’s
fanatical “Year Zero” destroyed the foundations of society, causing
death from starvation of an estimated 1.2m people. There were also
biblical-scale famines, at least as bad as those happening now, in
Biafra (1969-70), Bangladesh (1974), Ethiopia (1983-85) and North
Korea (1995-97).

Yet the UN statement, delivered by Stephen O’Brien,
under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, contains important
truths. Until now, the numbers of people dying from famine had been
falling dramatically.

According to the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University, from the
1870s to the 1970s, in each decade great famines killed between 1.45m
and 16.64m people, averaging 928,000 a year. Since 1980, the annual
death toll has dropped sharply to an average 75,000, just 8 per cent
of the historic level. As recently as last year, experts had
considered the possibility of the end of famine. Tragically, that hope
was premature.

The second truth in Mr O’Brien’s statement is that famines are
man-made. Rarely are they caused by anything so mundane as a shortage
of food. Geography has little influence. Contrary to common
perception, Asia and eastern Europe — not Africa — have been the locus
of world hunger. Between 1870 and 2010, 87 per cent of deaths from
famine occurred in those regions, with only 9.2 per cent in Africa.
Certainly, failed rains and creeping desertification can trigger
crises. That is precisely what is happening in Somalia, which is
suffering its worst drought in living memory. But without human
complicity, famine cannot occur. The economist and philosopher Amartya
Sen wrote that famines do not take place in true democracies. If
democracy is in worldwide retreat, famines could make a gruesome

South Sudan is a case in point. The world’s newest country won
independence in 2011. Since then it has descended into civil war as a
gangster elite fights over diminishing oil revenue. That changed the
country, in the phrase of Alex de Waal, executive director of the
World Peace Foundation, into the only thing worse than a kleptocracy —
a bankrupt kleptocracy. The elite has turned on itself and extorted
its people, sending them into the wilderness where there is
insufficient food to survive.

If, to paraphrase Tolstoy, every fully fed nation is alike, then every
starving one is grotesque in its own way. In Yemen, the Saudi-led
blockade of Hudaydah port is preventing food from reaching some 7m
people. In Somalia, the humanitarian effort is severely hampered by
al-Shabaab militants who last year carried out 165 violent attacks
against humanitarian efforts. The civilian government in Nigeria has
run down its armed forces to such an extent that, for years, it was
incapable of fighting Boko Haram insurgents in the north. Now the
military is fighting back but, in every region that it liberates, it
uncovers displaced people struggling to survive.

Mr O’Brien said $4.4bn was needed by July to avert catastrophe. But,
as Mr de Waal points out, he did not pretend that money and sympathy
would suffice. Instead, he spelt out what should be crystal clear:
famines are acts of political self-harm often aided and abetted by
international action, or inaction. Famines are made not by angry gods
and are thus not inevitable. Ethiopia’s government proved that last
year when it averted the effects of a potentially calamitous drought
through carefully planned and executed food relief. The key to
stopping starvation is not food itself, but opening up political,
physical and economic access so that food can reach those who need it.
Beyond that, the only solution is, as Mr O’Brien said, to “stop the

On balance, the UN official was right to risk the charge of crying
wolf by sounding the alarm loud and sounding it early. The last time
famine was declared was in Somalia in 2011. You knew it was a famine
because perhaps 150,000 people had already died. By the time it was
declared, it was already too late.


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The Nigerian naira firmed 1.1 percent on the black market on Wednesday to a six month-high of 430 per dollar, traders said.


It was quoted at 307.50 on the interbank market.

The central bank has been intervening on the official market to try to
narrow the currency spread. The black market rate was 520 a month ago.

"The regular intervention by the central bank has increased liquidity
in the official market. The new policy has also eliminated spurious
demand for the dollar," Aminu Gwadabe, the head of Nigeria's exchange
bureaux told Reuters.


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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.06% 2017

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.69% 2017

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Mozambique Sees Capital Gains of $350 Million on Exxon Deal

Mozambique said Exxon Mobil Corp.’s acquisition of a 25 percent stake in an offshore gas block from Eni SpA will generate capital gains revenue of $350 million.

The government expects only to receive payment when the transaction is concluded, Anibal Balango, an official in Mozambique’s tax authority, told reporters in the capital, Maputo, on Tuesday.

As a non-resident company, Eni was only eligible to pay tax on half the value of the $2.8 billion deal with Exxon. That value was further reduced to $1.1 billion after existing investments by the Italian company were accounted for, giving a tax rate of about 32 percent, the authority said.

The tax windfall from the Exxon deal, announced on March 9, comes as Mozambique grapples with a debt crisis. The government defaulted earlier this year on an interest payment for $727 million of Eurobonds after funds to buy tuna fishing boats were diverted to defense spending. International donors suspended aid after the disclosure of hidden borrowing by two state-owned companies.

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Mozambique missed a $119 million payment due Tuesday on a loan Credit Suisse Group AG arranged, the second debt repayment the government failed to make

Mozambique missed a $119 million payment due Tuesday on a loan Credit Suisse Group AG arranged, the second debt repayment the government failed to make in as many months.

The $622 million facility was taken out by state-owned ProIndicus and was supposed to fund the purchase of boats and radar systems to protect the country’s Indian Ocean coastline, where companies including Italy’s Eni SpA and U.S.-based Anadarko Petroleum Corp. have large offshore gas reserves. Credit Suisse on Tuesday declined to comment on its financing of Mozambique.

“We are in negotiations with the investors,” Finance Ministry spokesman Rogerio Nkomo said by phone Wednesday from the capital, Maputo.

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Familiar election run up in Kenya will keep young voters away - New African Magazine

With barely five months to the next election, the phrase currently in vogue in the national discourse is “voter apathy”, coined after the poor turnout witnessed during mass voter-registration exercises in January and February.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had expected to register six million new voters. By the time the registration exercise closed in mid- February, only 2.6 million people had been registered.

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Standard Chartered reports FY 16 pat +42.679% Earnings here

Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           200.00

Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00

Market Capitalization:        68,702,114,200

EPS:             25.85

PE:               7.73

Standard Chartered Kenya FY 2016 results through 31st December 2016 vs. 31st December 2015

FY Kenya government securities 81.708503b vs. 67.416543b +21.199%

FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 122.711038b vs. 115.125427b +6.589%

FY Total assets 250.482000b vs. 233.965447b +7.059%

FY Customer deposits 186.598226b vs. 172.036056b +8.465%

FY Total shareholders’ equity 44.603828b vs. 41.251785b +8.126%

FY Loans and advances interest income 14.845035b vs. 14.914705b -0.467%

FY  Government securities interest income 10.065081b vs. 6.973609b +44.331%

FY Total interest income 25.775145b vs. 22.877085b +12.668%

FY Customer deposits expense [5.684222b] vs. [3.982472b] +42.731%

FY Total interest expense [6.379650b] vs. [4.761053b] +33.997%

FY Net interest income/ [loss] 19.395495b vs. 18.116032b +7.063%

FY Other fees and commissions non-interest income 4.360874b vs. 3.809834b +14.464%

FY Foreign exchange trading income/ [loss] 2.839996b vs. 2.331776b +21.795%

FY Total non-interest income 8.589594b vs. 7.249117b +18.492%

FY Total operating income 27.985089b vs. 25.365149b +10.329%

FY Loan loss provision [2.199899b] vs. [4.896355b] -55.071%

FY Staff costs [7.031586b] vs. [6.096766b] +15.333%

FY Other operating expenses [3.862386b] vs. [3.596508b] +7.393%

FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 13.288119b vs. 9.159932b +45.068%

FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 9.049307b vs. 6.342427b +42.679%

EPS 25.85 vs. 17.97 +43.851%

Dividend per share 20.00 vs. 17.00 +17.647%

Net NPL and advances 10.166807b vs. 11.681664b -12.968%

Liquidity ratio 56.93% vs. 53.74% +3.190%

Cash and cash equivalents at 31st December 16.641836b vs. 29.497242b -43.582%

No. Of outstanding shares : 343,510,571

Final Dividend 14/= a share


Outstanding FY 16 Results. 

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.82

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -4.17% 2017

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -4.68%

3,037.16 +29.26 +0.97%

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N.S.E Today

Kenya Shilling was last trading at 102.96 and on balance I expect some
further firming.
The Trump Trade [Long Dollars] has become the chump trade as Investors
hit the exit button on the dollar fearing the noose has been landed
around the Trumpster's neck [Russia refers] and will get yanked.
Crude Oil has entered a price Tail-spin and was last trading at
November 2016 Lows.
Here in SSA, The South African Rand is +10% year to date which is
noteworthy after sliding for nearly every year since President Zuma
assumed office.
The Nigeria Naira's black market rate has also been moving
dramatically and positively over the last few sessions reducing the
difference between the official and unofficial markets. That
particular elastic band is going to snap.
The Nairobi All Share rallied +1.18% to close at 129.90 and has closed
at a 10 week High.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied +1.504% to close at 3082.85 and has closed
at a 10 week High.
This has been a strong March at the bourse and a number of stocks
closed at 2017 Highs, Sasini Tea +22.39% in 2017, Kenya Airways +5.98%
in 2017 and StanChart +13.22% in 2017.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee rallied +8.045% to close at a 2017 high of 23.50
and traded 47,400 shares. Sasini Tea is +22.39% in 2017.

Kakuzi was high-ticked +8.3% to close at 300.00.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Kenya Airways rallied a further +7.82% to close at 6.20 a 2017 closing
high. Kenya Airways has rallied an eye-popping +16.98% over 2 sessions
and is now +5.98% in 2017.

Safaricom rallied +1.38% to close at 18.35 and traded 9.234m shares
worth 169.552m. The immediate target is the unchanged mark for 2017
which is pegged at 19.15.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Standard Chartered released its FY 16 Earnings yesterday and these
were ''outlier'' results. In statistics, an outlier is an observation
point that is distant from other observations. StanChart reported a
+45.068% FY Profit before Tax acceleration, FY EPS ramped +43.851%
higher to clock 25.85 a share and the Dividend Pay Out was lifted
+17.647%.  Mr Lamin Manjang, CEO Standard Chartered said the refreshed
business strategy that was launched in late 2015 which largely focused
on increased investment in digital technology had enabled the Bank to
control costs, manage risk and exploit new business opportunities.
[Capital Business] These were an outstanding set of results and the
share price has a lot higher to run. When the Going got tough Lamin
Manjang and StanChart [the Tough] got going. StanChart rallied +6.46%
to close at a 2017 high of 214.00. StanChart is +13.22% in 2017 and I
expect a sharp material re-rating higher.

DTB Bank rallied +4.38% to close at 119.00 and DTB has bagged a
+15.53% 2 day gain since releasing its FY 16 Earnings.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2017

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