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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 30th of March 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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#Brexit letter to the EU
Africa


EU's Tusk: This is not a happy day in Brussels or London.

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Best and worst performing Currencies in 2017 via David Ingles
Africa


Home Thoughts

“If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is
ready, we shall never begin.” ― Ivan Turgenev

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The steps to the top of The Vatican...@London_W4
Africa


“O youth! youth! you go your way heedless, uncaring – as if you owned
all the treasures of the world; even grief elates you, even sorrow
sits well upon your brow. You are self-confident and insolent and you
say, 'I alone am alive – behold!' even while your own days fly past
and vanish without trace and without number, and everything within you
melts away like wax in the sun .. like snow .. and perhaps the whole
secret of your enchantment lies not, indeed, in your power to do
whatever you may will, but in your power to think that there is
nothing you will not do: it is this that you scatter to the winds –
gifts which you could never have used to any other purpose. Each of us
feels most deeply convinced that he has been too prodigal of his gifts
– that he has a right to cry, 'Oh, what could I not have done, if only
I had not wasted my time.”
― Ivan Turgenev, First Love


 


The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.
Hunter S. Thompson

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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics


Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in
Italy said: This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse
of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents
can broadcast live and over the top. From feeding the hot-house
conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised
perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which
drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s,
what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.

Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries
are his information victims.

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How to Manage Our Algorithmic Overlords @bv
Law & Politics


Humans are gradually coming to recognize the vast influence that
artificial intelligence will have on society. What we need to think
about more, though, is how to hold it accountable to the people whose
lives it will change.

Google tells us what to believe. Facebook tells us what’s news.
Countless other algorithms are standing in for human control and
judgment, in ways that are not always evident or benign. As Larry
Summers recently noted, the impact on jobs alone (in large part from
self-driving cars) could be greater than that of trade agreements:

So who will monitor the algorithms, to be sure they’re acting in
people’s best interests?

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25-MAY-2015 Algorithms and Bear Markets @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Did you know that many investors now trade algorithmically? These
ultra fast algorithms scan social media and on the basis of words and
sentiments, buy or sell stocks.

read more


A 'Psyops Totality'
Law & Politics


As Col. Alfred R. Paddock Jr. wrote in an influential November 1983
paper, entitled “Military Psychological Operations and US Strategy,”

“the planned use of communications to influence attitudes or behavior
should, if properly used, precede, accompany, and follow all
applications of force. Put another way, psychological operations is
the one weapons system which has an important role to play in
peacetime, throughout the spectrum of conflict, and during the
aftermath of conflict.”

Paddock continued,

“Military psychological operations are an important part of the ‘PSYOP
Totality,’ both in peace and war. … We need a program of psychological
operations as an integral part of our national security policies and
programs. … The continuity of a standing interagency board or
committee to provide the necessary coordinating mechanism for
development of a coherent, worldwide psychological operations strategy
is badly needed.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0746
Dollar Index 99.96 [back above 99.50]
Japan Yen 111.01
Swiss Franc 0.9967
Pound 1.2414
Aussie 0.7655
India Rupee 64.935
South Korea Won 1116.62
Brazil Real 3.1218
Egypt Pound 18.2363
South Africa Rand 12.9298

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U.N. peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo are aiding a government that is "corrupt and preys on its citizens." @nikkihaley
Africa


"The U.N. peacekeeping mission is mandated to partner with the
government," Haley told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
"In other words the U.N. is aiding a government that is inflicting
predatory behavior against its own people. We should have the decency
and common sense to end this."

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.54% 2016
Africa


Rand erases losses as plan to fire Gordhan said to be opposed @markets

https://twitter.com/markets/status/847088920001175558

Will #Gordhan leave #South African markets on edge @reutersafrica

https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/847053098698883072

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South Africa's ANC top six split on whether to fire Gordhan - sources
Africa


The top six of South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC)
are divided down the middle on whether to remove Finance Minister
Pravin Gordhan, two sources told Reuters.

President Jacob Zuma, who is part of the top six wants to replace
Gordhan and has the support of Chairwoman Baleka Mbete and Deputy
Secretary-General Jessie Duarte, the sources said.

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe and
Treasurer-General Zweli Mkhize want Gordhan to remain and have
expressed their opinion to Zuma, the sources said.

Zuma does not need the support of the top six to hire and fire
ministers but should top ANC members openly criticise his decision it
would likely weaken his position in the party.

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ANC top brass reject JZ's 'badly-written' spy files on Gordhan Mail and Guardian
Africa


The Mail & Guardian has reliably learned that Deputy President Cyril
Ramaphosa, ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe and treasurer Zweli
Mkhize have vehemently opposed the removal of Finance Minister Pravin
Gordhan.

Zuma is said to have proposed the name of Brian Molefe as Gordhan’s
replacement to Luthuli House, but was rejected by the most senior
leaders of the party.

It is understood that the proposal of Molefe as finance minister was
similarly rejected by the South African Communist Party (SACP) in a
meeting with Zuma on Monday night.

Zuma had intended to make the announcement of a cabinet reshuffle on
Tuesday but was warned that members of the top six would publicly
voice their disagreement with the decision.

In the meeting with the top six, the president had presented concerns
over Gordhan’s close relationship with “white monopoly capital” as the
reason for the change.

read more


Operation Check Mate to undermine Zuma.
Africa


According to the person, Zuma showed the leaders an intelligence
report, seen by Bloomberg, stating that the Ministry of Finance and
the National Treasury stand together against the president, and that
Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, had set up secret meetings to
start what is called Operation Check Mate to undermine Zuma.
Ramaphosa, Mantashe and Mkhize dismissed the findings and said they
reserved the right to publicly oppose any decision to fire Gordhan,
the person said.

Treasury spokeswoman Yolisa Tyantsi didn’t immediately respond to a
phone call and text message seeking comment.

“Gordhan is well-respected by virtually everyone bar the president and
his supporters,” said Ruth Bookbinder, an Africa analyst at Bath,
England-based risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft. “The president
is unable to sack Gordhan without risking his own position. The latest
spat between the two men suggests that Zuma is trying to make
Gordhan’s position untenable. Unable to fire the minister, Zuma hopes
to push Gordhan into resigning.”

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Ghana's $1.8 bln loan for 2016-17 cocoa "is all gone" - Cocobod
Africa


The $1.8 billion syndicated loan Ghana procured to purchase cocoa for
the 2016-17 season "is all gone" and the country must seek more
funding to make purchases for the rest of the season, the new chairman
of industry regulator Cocobod said.

read more



Tanzania orders audit of mining companies' earnings over taxes
Africa


A video recording of the president making an unannounced visit to the
Dar es Salaam port on March 23 to personally inspect containers of
mineral concentrate showed a vividly angry Magufuli talking to port
workers.

The president said he has instructed officials to impound over 250
shipping containers of gold and copper concentrate owned by Acacia
Mining at Dar es Salaam pending a tax probe.

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Will Angola Pay Back Holders Of Its Foreign Currency Debt? Frontera
Africa


In 2015, foreign currency inflow generated by oil exports was at $33.4
billion, a 44.5% decline

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27-MAR-2017 :: Keep an eye on Caracas, Riyadh, Abuja, Luanda and all the rest.
Africa


I expect April to be very cruel for these capitals.

‘’April is the cruellest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land,
mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain.’’

read more


Three Charts Showing Why Kenyan Budget Could Be Overly Ambitious Bloomberg
Kenyan Economy


After reaping the benefits of low international oil prices for the
last three years, East Africa’s largest economy risks being weighed
down by a drought and a law capping the interest commercial banks can
charge to 4 percentage points above the central bank’s key rate. These
three charts show the factors that may complicate the budget aimed at
boosting the nation’s gross domestic product.

The government intends to narrow its fiscal deficit to between 6
percent and 6.5 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year
starting July from 9.6 percent in 2016-17, Treasury Principal
Secretary Kamau Thugge said last week.

Domestic loans of about 320 billion shillings ($3.1 billion) to help
finance the shortfall could prove difficult to raise without stoking
pressure on interest rates, Jibran Qureishi, Stanbic Holdings Plc East
Africa economist, said by phone. The government may tilt financing
toward international sources to control borrowing costs at home,
according to Thugge.

“We are quite comfortable with where we are in terms of deficit, and
where we are going,” Thugge said.

Key to narrowing the deficit will be the government’s ability to boost
revenue collection to its target of 1.7 trillion shillings next year,
from a projected 1.5 trillion shillings in 2016-17. Overall
expenditure will increase to 2.29 trillion shillings from 2.23
trillion shillings as the government spends ahead of general elections
on Aug. 8, according to Treasury estimates. President Uhuru Kenyatta’s
office has said his government could increase spending to as much as
2.62 trillion shillings.

“Their revenue target is not realistic, it’s overly ambitious,”
Qureishi said. “It would be possible if the rate-cap law was dropped
and the economy wasn’t struggling with drought.”

Kenya has consistently failed to meet its revenue goals. It raised
1.29 trillion shillings in 2015-16 fiscal year, undershooting its
target by 5 percent. Tax authorities had collected 44 percent of
what’s been set out for them this year by the end of the first half.

While the government maintains the economy will grow by 5.9 percent
this year, Yvonne Mhango, Johannesburg-based economist at Renaissance
Capital, forecasts expansion of 4.2 percent and Razia Khan, head of
macro-research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc. in London, sees output
increasing by 5 percent. Chris Becker, strategist at Investec Prime
Services, said earlier this month growth could slow to as little as 1
percent over the next two years.

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20-MAR-2017 :: Policy Making Agility is Key for a Thriving Economy @Thestarkenya
Kenyan Economy


Like Lao Tzu has said: “Men are born soft and supple; dead they are
stiff and hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are
brittle and dry. Thus whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple of
death. Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life. The hard
and stiff will be broken. The soft and supple will prevail.”

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07-MAR-2017 :: Where Meteorology intersects with Monetary Policy @Thestarkenya
Kenyan Economy


06-FEB-2017 ::Connecting the dots, Food Prices, the Weather and
Laikipia @TheStarkenya

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX0602.pdf

.@HarunMaruf The first direct flight from #Mogadishu to #Nairobi in 10
years arrives at Jomo Kenyatta int'l airport following bilateral talks
last week.

https://twitter.com/HarunMaruf/status/847130509113249792

read more


Safaricom slashes Lipa Na M-Pesa tariffs
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan operator, Safaricom has announced a number of initiatives for
its M-Pesa service. From 03 April, Safaricom will implement a 50
percent tariff reduction for all Lipa Na M-Pesa Buy Goods merchant
fees. Under this new Lipa Na M-Pesa tariff, merchants will be charged
a maximum of 0.5 percent of the transaction amount, down from the
previous maximum of 1 percent. In addition, Lipa na M-Pesa merchants
will be charged a flat fee of KES 200, for any payments above KES
40,000.

Also, the M-Pesa Kadogo tariff announced in October 2016 will be
expanded for Lipa Na M-Pesa Buy Goods to enable merchants to receive
all transactions of KES 200 and below at no cost. Merchants will also
enjoy the instant processing of payments made through Lipa Na M-Pesa
to their bank accounts; the service is now available at 23
participating banks.

read more


Total Kenya Ltd. reports FY 16 EPS +38.132% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           18.10
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        3,168,019,579
EPS:             3.55
PE:               5.098

Leading multinational energy company.

FY Gross sales 110.582420b vs. 138.027279b -19.884%
FY Indirect taxes and duties [21.521496b] vs. [17.773285b] +21.089%
FY Net sales 89.060924b vs. 120.253994b -25.939%
FY Cost of sales [81.209334b] vs. [113.263567b] -28.301%
FY Gross profit 7.851590b vs. 6.990427b +12.319%
FY Other income 962.996m vs. 766.065m +25.707%
FY Operating expenses [4.994353b] vs. [4.905099b] +1.820%
FY Finance income 163.492m vs. 127.073m +28.660%
FY Net foreign exchange loss [21.528m] vs. [320.342m] -93.280%
FY Profit before tax 3.935363b vs. 2.618696b +50.279%
FY Profit for the year 2.234292b vs. 1.615003b +38.346%
EPS (Basic and diluted) 3.55 vs. 2.57 +38.132%
Total Assets 36.185372b vs. 34.225035b +5.728%
Total Equity 19.349290b vs. 17.599746b +9.941%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December [278.826m] vs.
[1.453450b] -80.816%
Dividend per share 1.06 vs. 0.77 +37.662%
Number of shares : 175,028,706

Company Commentary

drop in international oil prices led to the decrease of 26% in net sales.
Gross margins increased by 12%
Other Income increased by 197m as a result of growth in rental income
and non-forecourt activities.
FY PAT +38%
1.06 Final Dividend

Conclusions


Strong results - cheap share. Buy at this level

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Kakuzi reports FY 16 EPS +22.388% here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           300.00
Total Shares Issued:          19600000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,880,000,000
EPS:             28.70
PE:                 10.45

FY Sales 2.651199b vs. 2.481844b +6.824%
FY Gains arising from changes in fair value less costs to sell of
non-current biological assets 67.236m vs. 83.071m -19.062%
FY Cost of sales [1.421914b] vs. [1.326377b] +7.203%
FY Gross profit 1.296521b vs. 1.238538b +4.682%
FY Distribution costs [620.635m] vs. [655.224m] -5.279%
FY Operating profit 682.592m vs. 580.078m +17.672%
FY Finance income 76.551m vs. 88.502m -13.504%
FY Profit before income tax 757.779m vs. 667.341m +13.552%
FY Profit for the year 562.425m vs. 459.714m +22.342%
EPS (Basic and diluted) 28.70 vs. 23.45 +22.388%
Total Equity 3.846258b vs. 3.375897b +13.933%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 1.430576b vs.
1.175434b +21.706%
Dividend per share 6.00 vs. 5.00 +20.000%
Number of shares : 19,599,999

Company Commentary

The results for the year show an increased profit before tax of Ksh
758 million against a restated profit for 2015 of Ksh 667 million. The
2015 profits have been restated due to changes in the Accounting
Standards. The earnings per stock unit increased from Ksh 23.45 to Ksh
28.70. The improved profit reflects the favourable market demand for
our two core crop products (avocado and macadamia)
Extreme weather patterns during 2016 led to above average rainfall in
key tea producing countries, which resulted in a global record in tea
production and, thus, a significant decline in price. Unprecedented
demand for avocado and the resultant under-supply in the market meant
record prices. These same weather patterns caused significant drought
in South Africa which had a huge impact on macadamia production
leading to an under-supply in the market therefore maintaining high
prices.
As a result of the excellent growing conditions Kakuzi’s tea crop in
Nandi Hills was 20% up over last year (1,732 tonnes vs 1,446 tonnes).
Kenya’s national production achieved record levels which had a
negative impact on price and resulted in production costs in excess of
prices.

Conclusions


Avocado and macadamia stand out

read more


Carbacid reports H1 16 EPS -31.915% Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           13.50
Total Shares Issued:          254851988.00
Market Capitalization:        3,440,501,838
EPS:             1.47
PE:                 9.184

H1 Turnover 322.237m vs. 466.522m -30.928%
H1 Operating profit 179.451m vs. 242.767m -26.081%
H1 Finance income (net) 75.230m vs. 88.534m -15.027%
H1 Revaluation of equity investment [36.371m] vs. [7.521m] -383.593%
H1 Profit before taxation 219.158m vs. 322.569m -32.059%
H1 Net profit after tax 164.368m vs. 238.701m -31.141%
EPS 0.64 vs. 0.94 -31.915%
Total net assets 2.900109b vs. 2.781906b +4.249%
Cash and cash equivalents at 31st January 605.165m vs. 744.089m -18.670%
No interim dividend
Number of shares : 254,851,988

Company Commentary

H1 Turnover -31% lower demand in local and export markets
Operating profit decreased by 26%
Pre-tax profits were down 32% y/y to KES 219m partly also impacted by
383% increase in loss on revaluation of equity investments in the
period.
No interim dividend was proposed.

Conclusions


Need to know what shares they are holding

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.10
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -2.05% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.81% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,128.44 +19.43 +0.62%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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