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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 07th of March 2017
 
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Africa

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A 'tusker' is an elephant whose tusks each weigh in excess of 100 lbs / 45,45kg. The tusks of Satao 2 weighed 51kg and 50.5kg.
Africa


The massive 44,000 km² Tsavo Conservation Area (twice the size of
South Africa’s Kruger National Park) is home to the highest population
of large-tusked elephants in the world, with 6 ‘super tuskers’ (of
approximately 25-30 in the whole of Africa) and 15 emerging tuskers
(young bulls who have the genes and potential to become tuskers).
There are also 7 cows with tusks reaching the ground that are being
monitored.

Elephant populations in the area crashed due to poaching from the
highs of 45,000 in the early 1970’s to fewer than 6,000 in 1989. Since
then the population has recovered to 11,000 (last aerial census in
2014) due to the formation of the KWS and the international ban on
ivory trade – although there has again been an increase in poaching
since then.

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Sunset Christmas Day Tsavo 1,166 days ago
Africa


“The sky, at sunset, looked like a carnivorous flower.” - Roberto Bolaño, 2666

read more










Law & Politics


This is the pinball reality of Washington nowadays – multiple metal
balls ricocheting in all directions, unleashed by an intemperate and
gleeful player-in-chief, all accompanied by a non-stop cacophony of
bells, klaxons and flashing lights. No one can hope to keep up and no
one can tell yet if the score he is piling up in spinning neon digits
is impressively high or disastrously low. But to Trump, all that
matters for the moment is the racket and the motion.

So there we are then. This time Trump really blew it. His most trusted
officials have been unable to contend that their boss had the faintest
idea what he was talking about when he made those Tweets, which
included the description of Mr Obama as “bad” and “sick”. Most
extraordinary were reports that James Comey, the FBI director, had
asked the Justice Department publicly to repudiate them as pure
nonsense. Less than six weeks into his first term, the law-and-order
President has triggered mutiny from the very top of his most important
law-and-order agency.

Yet, we can barely count the times we have declared with great
certitude that Trump had finally crossed a line only to find it had
been drawn in disappearing ink. That Access Hollywood tape about
Trump’s boasting of sexual predation was the death of his campaign
until it wasn’t.

So, we must pull ourselves in check. Trump doesn’t ignore the rules
just because he likes to or even just because he knows his supporters
want him to. Nor is it just that he knows he won’t get punished for
doing it, at least not any time soon. His reasons for breaking the
rules are often more complicated and more devious. With this tirade,
for instance, he didn’t just change the subject, he scrambled it, a
trick completed when the White House asked Congress at the weekend to
include consideration of the Obama administration breaking
anti-snooping rules, including possible wire-tapping of Trump Tower,
in its incoming investigations into possible Trump-Russia ties. Plenty
of Republicans have already said they will go along.

read more


Full text: Trump's revised ban on travel from Muslim-majority countries
Law & Politics


The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

For Immediate Release March 06, 2017

Executive Order Protecting The Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry
Into The United States

EXECUTIVE ORDER

PROTECTING THE NATION FROM FOREIGN TERRORIST ENTRY INTO THE UNITED STATES

Conclusions


This is madness. Its emotional it panders to the Base but it has
nothing to do with fighting terror.

read more




"Our country is sick," @alainjuppe
Law & Politics


"For me it is too late but it is not too late for France"

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0584
Dollar Index 101.58
Japan Yen 113.926
Swiss Franc 1.0111
Pound 1.2238
Aussie 0.7618
India Rupee 66.605
South Korea Won 1148.07
Brazil Real 3.1387
Egypt Pound 16.8520
South Africa Rand 12.9905

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -8.53% 2017
Africa


Dangote Cement took a big tumble

read more





07-MAR-2017 :: Where Meteorology intersects with Monetary Policy @Thestarkenya
Africa



About this time of year, I would park myself on the Verandah at the
Mombasa Club and search for the sea breeze. Later I would learn that I
was in fact sniffing the sea breeze for Petrichor [Petrichor
(/ˈpɛtrᵻkɔər/) is the earthy scent produced when rain falls on dry
soil]. The word is constructed from Greek πέτρα petra, meaning
"stone", and ἰχώρ īchōr, the fluid that flows in the veins of the gods
in Greek mythology Wikipedia]. According to Wikipedia, Some scientists
believe that humans appreciate the rain scent because ancestors may
have relied on rainy weather for survival. I like the idea that my
sojourns to that verandah at the Club, tied me somehow to my
ancestors. And from that time I have always been interested in the
Weather and Meteorology which is the interdisciplinary scientific
study of the atmosphere. The study of meteorology dates back
millennia. For those who are Weather enthusiasts, the current drought
conditions in East Africa is being caused by an ''obscure'' climate
Phenomenon called the the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [an oscillation of
sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean]  It wasn’t until the
1990s that Japanese scientists discovered the Indian Ocean Dipole, a
warm pool of water that migrates between western and eastern “poles”
and affects atmospheric temperatures and rainfall. The phenomenon
occurs in cycles of positive (warmer) and negative (cooler) sea
temperatures, but it has become more extreme in recent years due to
climate change. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole results in less
rainfall over East Africa, and that’s contributing to the current
drought that aid agencies warn could trigger mass famine. The
Scientists found that before 1924, the IOD occurred approximately
every 10 years, but since 1960, IOD events have been occurring
approximately 18 months to three years apart.The researchers suggested
that global warming effects on the western Indian Ocean have driven
the observed shift in IOD variability and note that the IOD has
replaced the El Nino-Southern Oscillation as the major driver of
climate patterns over the Indian Ocean region. It is this negative
Indian ocean Dipole which has parched the Country and the region.

What is clear now is that Meteorology intersects with Monetary Policy
and at times with considerable violence as we are witnessing now.
Kenya's inflation jumped to 9.04 percent year-on-year in February from
6.99 percent a month earlier, the statistics office said earlier this
week. On a month-on-month basis, inflation was at 1.72 percent
compared to 1.00 percent a month earlier. Thats a big asymmetric move
right there and this moment is reminiscent of 2011 when a weather
shock [coupled with elevated Crude Oil Prices] and a slow-motion
monetary policy response saw the Shilling tumble to an all time low of
107.00 against the Dollar in October 2011. Interestingly in 2011, we
had our noses pressed right up against an Election just as we do now.
There is also a political dynamic at work. Food Price increases have a
big outsize positive/negative well-being effect. Folks earning the
minimum wage spend a bigger percentage of their salary on Food [in
some cases as much as 50%] and therefore the Food price rise amplifies
at the lower salary point. I am not ignoring those who are at the
''bleeding edge'' of the drought, they are in extremis. In 2011, GDP
slowed over 1%. The economy is slowing and this was further confirmed
by higher frequency data;  The Markit Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1, a record low since the survey
began in January 2014, down from 52.0 in January. A reading above 50.0
marks growth. Private sector credit growth stood at 4.3 percent in
December, the central bank said.

Razia Khan the Standard Chartered Lead Africa Economist said this on
Twitter ''Before you panic about Kenyan CPI, every single component
(ex-food) is showing <5% y/y inflation. But food is 36% of the CPI
basket''

I am of the view that for now this time is different to 2011. Firstly,
Crude Oil prices are stuck in the $50.00 a barrel area [compared to an
$80-$110.00 range in 2011] and Crude Oil remains the single biggest
expense item for Kenya Inc. I am also of the view that the Shale Boys
in North America have OPEC over a Barrel. Essentially, Shale is able
to turn on supply faster than OPEC are able to turn supply off. Its a
Catch-22 for OPEC. So this Crude Oil development is soothing the
Inflationary move. Furthermore, The Central Bank Governor has
established his inflation-busting credentials and is very highly
regarded by the markets and therefore, I expect the Governor to retain
an optimal margin for manoeuvre in these tricky times unlike in 2011.
Finally, a big curve ball remains the fiscal side, where we need to
get a grip and soon. Infrastructure is uniformly good [as long as all
the money designated for these big Flagship projects ends up spent on
them] but it needs to be sequenced appropriately.

read more


Dec 26 @alykhansatchu: Fort Jesus Mombasa and the Mombasa Club
Africa


06-FEB-2017 :: Connecting the dots, Food Prices, the Weather and
Laikipia @TheStarkenya

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX0602.pdf

read more



British ranch owner killed by armed raiders in Kenya
Africa


The government has done little to stop the invasions and with
elections around the corner, few expect vote-costing action against
the illegal grazers.

Meanwhile the ethnic logic of Kenyan politics means some candidates
stand to benefit from a favourable shift in population dynamics ahead
of the vote.

read more


Britain urges Kenya to restore order after rancher killed
Africa


Britain on Monday urged Kenya to restore law and order in the north of
the country after a British rancher was shot dead there.

Numerous attacks have taken place in drought-stricken Laikipia region
in recent months as armed cattle herders searching for scarce grazing
have driven tens of thousands of cattle onto private farms and
ranches. At least a dozen people have been killed.

The most recent victim was Tristan Voorspuy, a British army veteran
who held dual Kenyan and British citizenship and ran a company called
Offbeat Safaris.

Nic Hailey, Britain's high commissioner (ambassador) to Kenya, said he
had repeatedly conveyed to the Kenyan government Britain's concern
over the situation in Laikipia.

"(I) continue to urge the Kenyan authorities to take all necessary
steps urgently to restore law and order, and to protect life and
property in the area," he said in a statement.

Sarah Korere, a member of parliament for Laikipia North, told Reuters
on Sunday the violent land invasions are being stoked by politicians
seeking votes from particular ethnic blocs in national elections
scheduled for August.

read more


Statement from the British High Commissioner to Kenya @HCNicHailey
Africa


From:British High Commission NairobiPart of:Kenya First published:6 March 2017

Nic Hailey condemns the killing of Tristan Voorspuy, a dual
Kenyan/British national shot dead in Laikipia.

Nic_Haley
British High Commissioner to Kenya, Nic Hailey

I was deeply saddened by the murder of Tristan Voorspuy, a dual
Kenyan/British national shot dead at Sosian ranch in Laikipia
yesterday. The British High Commission is in touch with his family to
provide support at this difficult time.

Alongside other international partners, I have repeatedly conveyed to
the Kenyan authorities over the past months the United Kingdom’s deep
concern at the situation in parts of Laikipia. I have done so again
following Mr. Voorspuy’s murder. I welcome the clear commitment at the
highest levels to tackle the situation, and continue to urge the
Kenyan authorities to take all necessary steps urgently to restore law
and order, and to protect life and property in the area.

read more


Kenyan Tea, a Reliable Export, Brews a Market at Home WSJ
Africa


This nation exports more tea than any other in the world, but for
years Kenyans weren’t able to enjoy a cup of premium tea cultivated in
their own country.

One company is leading a movement to change that.

Kenya annually exports some 400,000 tons of tea, ahead of other
leading producers such as China and India. But tea was widely viewed
as a luxury here. For decades, few Kenyans drank it. About 5% of
Kenya’s tea crop stays in the country, much of it dust and residue
from higher-quality leaves sold and processed abroad.

In recent years, however, a locally produced premium brand has
appeared, shelved in supermarkets next to the 400 shilling ($4) packs
of Unilever PLC’s Lipton and Associated British Foods PLC’s Twinings,
which are both made with Kenyan tea abroad and re-imported.

Gold Crown Beverages Ltd., a family-held business incorporated in the
U.K. but with a base here in Kenya’s biggest port city, is selling
premium black and herbal teas, made by Kenyans for Kenyans, at around
half the price of foreign competitors. The company’s Kenyan sales, $9
million in 2016, have almost tripled since 2012.

Gold Crown has managed to establish a product that doesn’t rely on
exporting raw materials and importing processed goods, a feat that has
long eluded most African companies. Cocoa producers in Ivory Coast and
Ghana have for decades failed to produce a competitive brand of
African-made chocolate. Oil producers in Nigeria and Angola have
struggled to refine and process their own petroleum products.

“There exists an enormous blue-sky opportunity to roll out
higher-quality tea like purple tea too,” said Aly-Khan Satchu, a
Kenyan financier and investor, who referred to rare tea grown here
that turns the water purple when brewed.

Kenya’s domestic tea sales were $118.6 million in 2015, up from $70
million in 2010, according to Euromonitor, a market-research company.

A cooperative of hundreds of thousands of small-holder Kenyan tea
farmers dominates the market through Kenya Tea Packers Ltd. Their
brands, cheaper and with far more reach than any competitor in rural
areas, are often sold loose and in easily identifiable
yellow-and-green packaging.

Kenyans have been developing a taste for upmarket hot beverages. While
standard black tea sales—the bulk of all tea sales in Kenya—grew by
some 40% between 2010 and 2015, the sales of the more expensive teas
nearly doubled, Euromonitor found.

The company’s ascent is visible here at the world’s biggest tea
auction, where each week a broker with a gavel sells off some $25
million worth of tea. The market’s 100-seat, air-conditioned
amphitheater is protected by a heavy door with a fingerprint scanner.
Crown Gold is now the second-biggest buyer behind Unilever.

Beyond black tea, marketed under the Kericho Gold brand, the company
sells Kenyans herbal teas, such as mint and camomile, as well as
locally-grown green tea for blended products. In October, Gold Crown
launched Attitude Tea, a boldly-colored, millennial-targeted brand
with blends called “Hangover Tea” and “Love Tea.”

“I think it’s better tea than anything else we get, and it’s made
here,” she said as she tossed a package of Kericho Gold and a Hangover
Tea in her basket. “Why should I pay more to buy Kenyan tea made in
England?”

Even with its rising sales in Kenya, more than 80% of Gold Crown’s $50
million revenue is still generated abroad. The company, which employs
about 100 people, selects and packages branded tea for Harrods, the
luxury U.K. department store, that is sold in engraved tin boxes, as
well as other European tea brands.

read more




Kenya Minister Opposes Regulations to Break Up Vodafone Unit BBG Africa
Africa


Kenya’s government opposes using regulation to force East Africa’s
biggest mobile operator Safaricom Ltd. to be broken up, after a draft
study found the company is dominant in the country’s
telecommunications industry, Information, Communications and
Technology Secretary Joseph Mucheru said.

The government disapproves of measures that would stifle innovation as
it wants companies to expand by investing in new products and
technology, Mucheru said in an interview Friday in the capital,
Nairobi. The country has existing laws that can be used to stimulate
competition without having to introduce new regulations, he said.

A draft report by U.K. advisory group Analysys Mason, commissioned by
Kenya’s regulatory Communications Authority, found that Safaricom is a
dominant player in the mobile-money and mobile communications sectors
and stated that, unless steps are taken to improve competition, the
company should be broken up. Analysys Mason declined to comment,
referring all queries to the regulator, which said it’s reviewing the
study as it considers steps to enable Safaricom’s rivals to compete
better. Safaricom is 40 percent owned by Newbury, England-based
Vodafone Plc.

“As the government, we do not support regulation that splits companies
based on innovation,” Mucheru said. “To say that any company that
innovates something -- they are likely to be penalized by law -- I
believe, is unfair.”

Kenyan opposition lawmaker Jakoyo Midiwo last month proposed
introducing a law to force Safaricom to be split, a plan that Chief
Executive Officer Bob Collymore called “plain stupid.” The company
hasn’t yet responded to an emailed request for further comment.

Safaricom is Kenya’s biggest mobile provider with a 69 percent market
share, according to the Communications Authority. Its closest rival is
the national unit of Bharti Airtel Ltd., with 17.5 percent, while it
also competes with Helios Investment Partners LLP-owned Telkom Kenya.
Safaricom’s M-Pesa mobile-banking product is also a significant market
leader, processing about 851 billion shillings ($8.2 billion) of
transactions during the third quarter last year, about 79 percent of
the total value of mobile-money transactions in Kenya.

“It would be a shame if we now started punishing innovation by just
legislating without taking into account our future and where we want
to go in a more globalized market,” Mucheru said. “I believe that is a
decision that a board and company can take. It does not have to be
taken through regulation.”

Safaricom shares were down almost 1 percent by close of Monday’s
trading session, the sixth consecutive fall. At 16.75 shillings, their
lowest level since April 13, the company is valued at $6.5 billion. By
comparison, MTN Group, Africa’s biggest mobile-phone company, has a
market capitalization of $17.7 billion.

Breaking up the company risks “untold consequences” for Kenya’s
financial system, Linus Gitahi, chairman of Nairobi-based brokerage
AIB Capital Ltd. said in an opinion article published in the local
Daily Nation newspaper on March 1.

“M-Pesa is a critical nerve supporting the money transfer system,” he
said. “Ripping away M-Pesa from Safaricom would leave both in severe
distress.”

Conclusions


Sanity prevails.

read more



@SafaricomLtd is a Buy at -12.27% in 2017 share data
Africa


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -7.01% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

2,963.01 +1.23 +0.04%

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The Kenya Shilling is trading at 102.66 which is a more than 2 month
high which is muscular given that the Dollar has been making ground
across the Board.
Crude Oil Prices remain soft and interestingly the acquisition
pipeline [Sadolin, Java etc.] is also bringing the Kenya Shilling
demand Supply dynamic back into equilibrium.
The Central Bank Governor who [with Safaricom's Bob Collymore is
participating in the wall Street Journal Africa Conference said
The 'Trump effect is the biggest risk for us in Kenya.' US represents
7% of Kenyan exports and 10% of FDI.
The Nairobi All Share retreated -0.387% to close at a 45 month Low of
120.96. The All Share has retreated -9.28% through 2017.
The NSE20 Index is outperforming the All Share in 2017 [because in the
NSE20 Safaricom has an equal weighting] and firmed +0.54 points to
close at 2963.56.
The NSE20 Index -6.99% through 2017.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Limuru Tea traded 500 shares all at 550.00 +9.78% which represented
the maximum allowable in any one session. Limuru Tea is +3.77% in
2017.
Kapchorua Tea rallied +6.67% to close at a 2017 High.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Bloomberg reported on an important intervention by the Cabinet
Secretary Joe Mucheru.

“As the government, we do not support regulation that splits companies
based on innovation,” Mucheru said. “To say that any company that
innovates something -- they are likely to be penalized by law -- I
believe, is unfair.”

“It would be a shame if we now started punishing innovation by just
legislating without taking into account our future and where we want
to go in a more globalized market,” Mucheru said. “I believe that is a
decision that a board and company can take. It does not have to be
taken through regulation.”

Safaricom retreated for the 7th consecutive session and closed -0.89%
at a Fresh April 2016 Low. Safaricom is egregiously oversold at
-13.054% in 2017. Safaricom traded 5.251m shares.

Nation Media Group firmed +2.44% to close at 84.00. Nation Media is
-9.677% in 2017 and has recovered some ground helped by the better
than expected Standard Group FY Earnings.
Standard Group did not trade and is +9.09% in 2017 and reported a FY
16 Profit [Loss] after tax of 198.521m vs. a FY Loss of [289.603m] in
2015. The Standard Group said its ''strategic plan whose main focus is
to grow broadcast and digital platform segments''
This is self evidently a disruptive moment for the Media Sector
particularly if the GOK dials down its advertising spend, which it
repeatedly threatens to do.

Sanlam Kenya rallied +4.8% to close at 27.25.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
today ahead of its FY 16 Earnings release later this week. KCB closed
unchanged at 26.00 and was trading at session highs of 27.00 +3.85% at
the finish line with 3.393m shares worth 88.755m.
Equity Group ticked -0.97% lower to close at 25.50 but was trading at
26.00 +0.97% at the finish line. Equity traded 1.730m shares.
Barclays Bank rallied +1.12% to close at 8.95 a 2017 closing high.
Barclays Bank traded 1.375m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


BAT was up-ticked +5.88% to close at 900.00.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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