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Wednesday 15th of August 2018
 
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Macro Thoughts

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"China is pioneering multiple custodial systems targeting increasingly broad demographics, in a manner that often amounts to enforced disappearances"
Law & Politics


After several decades of unprecedented growth and global adulation,
China watchers are increasingly focusing on the headwinds. The world’s
second-largest economy suddenly appears to be dithering – to be,
perhaps, even frail.

“China is pioneering multiple custodial systems targeting increasingly
broad demographics, in a manner that often amounts to enforced
disappearances, [which] arguably means that China will utilize
enforced disappearance on a scale never before seen”

The UN is responding to what it calls “many credible reports that 1
million ethnic Uyghurs in China are held in what resembles a ‘massive
internment camp that is shrouded in secrecy.’”

A recent United States commission report described the situation in
Xinjiang as “the largest mass incarceration of a minority population
in the world today.”

Conclusions

read more











The "cult" of Trumpworld @OMAROSA @TheAtlantic
Law & Politics


In her new book Unhinged, set to be released on Tuesday, Omarosa
Manigault Newman charts her fifteen years in the “cult” of Trumpworld,
from her “Apprentice” days to the West Wing. She uses the word often
throughout her 330-page memoir—cult—describing its leader as “mentally
impaired,” his followers as “worshipful.”

It was the third night of festivities when she met Pence and his three
brothers, “who looked like his clones,” in the Trump family box.

“‘We always knew this would happen to Mike. He’s always wanted to be
president...I mean vice president!’ one of his brothers said with a
wink,” Manigault Newman writes

“Perhaps his attraction to Pence was another sign of his loneliness,”
Manigault Newman writes. “No one else in his life gazed at him with
such adoration, certainly not his wife anymore. (Maybe Ivanka?)”

“Trump has an affinity for pretty women,” she writes. “He’d rather
have a pretty woman with no experience around than a qualified,
less-attractive woman.”

When his replacement, Anthony Scaramucci, was fired, Manigault Newman
claims that Scaramucci “started crying.”

she asked her father what he thought of Kushner. “’He seems a little
sweet to me,’” she writes Trump said, “using his phrasing for ‘gay.’”

Conclusions


Impressive, well-prepared, unruffled and in control, interesting...

read more



When the Turkish president fended off a coup attempt two years ago, he appealed to his supporters via FaceTime, the Apple video chat app @nytimesbusiness
Law & Politics


“If they have the iPhone, there is Samsung” as an alternative, he
continued, referring to Apple’s principal rival in the smartphone
business.

The comments by the Turkish leader were particularly remarkable given
that he and several of his top ministers are frequently seen with
iPhones. In mid-2016, as he battled the coup attempt, Mr. Erdogan used
FaceTime to call for his supporters to take to the streets.

read more


Turkey's Lira Crisis Tests Erdogan's Authoritarian Approach @nytimes
Law & Politics


ISTANBUL — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long made clear that he
considered no part of Turkish life beyond his reach, not least the
economy.

Even before he was re-elected in June with sultan-like powers, he had
built his popularity on sustained economic growth fueled by signature
megaprojects — the latest being plans for a canal bisecting the
country. But critics have long charged that much of that expansion was
built on budgetary sleight of hand, cronyism and corruption.

Now Turkey’s worst economic crisis since 2001 — the currency hit
another new low on Monday — has confronted Mr. Erdogan with the limits
of his authoritarian approach and could end his long run of success.

Turkey’s economic troubles, analysts say, are largely of Mr. Erdogan’s
own making. They have less to do with his dispute with the United
States and the prospect of greater sanctions than with Mr. Erdogan’s
deepening economic interference as he attempts to bend the logic of
monetary policy and global financial markets to suit his political
purposes.

Yet while Mr. Erdogan asserts greater control over life in Turkey —
including the media, the judiciary, foreign policy and political
decision-making — it is far less clear that he can bully an economy
increasingly beholden to global markets to submit to his will, they
say.

While Mr. Erdogan could still change course, whether he will is far
from certain. In the meantime, the levers available to him will not
avert the economic pain that is now inevitable, they say.

“The interest-rate hikes and budget cuts will be painful,” said Atilla
Yesilada, an Istanbul-based consultant at Global Source Partners, a
management consultancy. “There will be bankruptcies.”

“When the people fall into difficulties because of monetary policies,
who are they going to hold accountable?” he asked. “Since they’ll ask
the president about it, we have to give off the image of a president
who is influential on monetary policies,” he added.

Turkey has weathered financial storms before thanks to its size and
diversity, but the outcome will depend on the “coherence and
predictability of the policies that are pursued,” the credit-rating
agency Moody’s advised in a statement in June.

In July, after Mr. Erdogan’s re-election, and after he appointed his
son-in-law Berat Albayrak to the newly combined position of treasury
and finance minister, Moody’s announced another downgrading of
Turkey’s credit rating.

“Any perception of encroachment into the independence of the central
bank and other public institutions will likely exacerbate investor
concerns,” it wrote in a statement.

“No Central Bank would stand by while its currency is depreciating,” he said.

Mr. Albayrak was undergoing a “fast on-the-job training,” he said. “If
the business community and banks tell him what dire straits we are
navigating, he may make the right decision.”

As for the immediate crisis, Mr. Yesilada called for a hefty interest
rate hike of at least 5 percentage points and said that a “handshake
with the United States is an absolute minimum.”

Ankara kept asking for other options to the crisis, he said, but he
predicted that Mr. Erdogan would have no option in the end.

“He will wake up and smell the coffee,” he said.

read more


13-AUG-2018 :: Cold Turkey @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Harold Macmillan when asked what a prime minister feared most replied:
'Events, dear boy, events'."

read more


13-AUG-2018 :: President Erdogan [Like Xi Jinping] finds himself caught in the Strong Man Conundrum. If You are the Strong Man and have placed yourself on a Pedestal then you own the problem
Law & Politics


President Erdogan [Like Xi Jinping] finds himself caught in the Strong
Man Conundrum. If You are the Strong Man and have placed yourself on a
Pedestal then you own the problem. President Erdogan remains a limit
Short Trading position.

read more



3-AUG-2018 :: President Erdogan is right at the Edge.
Law & Politics


President Trump seems to be relishing his financial warfare
strategies. He has Khamenei on the run, Maduro in Venezuela is being
attacked by remote-controlled drone, Xi suddenly looks ever so
fragile.

President Erdogan is a Shakespearean Figure, he has slayed Enemies
real and not real, his chest has been puffed up with Pride, he even
rescued the Emir of Qatar but he has now met his match, that match
being the markets. I hope he still has Madam Lagarde's number on speed
dial.

Such is the ultimate Bonfire of Populist Vanity. The Populist Leaders
with their cheer-leading claques have drunk their own Kool-Aid and
therein lies our ultimate salvation. They will be driven over the Edge

"The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"

President Erdogan is right at the Edge.

read more



Elon Musk is working with Silver Lake, Goldman to take Tesla private
International Trade


In a tweet late Monday California time, the electric-car maker’s chief
executive officer said he’s also lined up legal advisers for the
possible transaction. A Tesla spokesman said Musk’s tweet refers to
his own advisers and attorneys. Tesla board members didn’t immediately
respond to requests for comment.

The posts prolong Musk’s piecemeal approach to explaining how he’ll
pull off a privatization of his money-losing automaker at a more than
$70 billion market capitalization. Since the 47-year-old dropped that
bombshell, he’s used social media to sporadically update investors
stuck in an information vacuum.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1323  *EUR/USD TOUCHES NEW DAY LOW 1.1355, LOWEST SINCE JULY 2017
Dollar Index 96.81
Japan Yen 111.25
Swiss Franc 0.9960
Pound GBPUSD 1.2701 <1.27  52 week low
Aussie 0.7213
India Rupee 69.96
South Korea Won 1133.65
Brazil Real 3.8665
Egypt Pound 17.8950
South Africa Rand 14.3496

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13-AUG-2018 :: Cold Turkey @TheStarKenya
Emerging Markets


President Trump seems to be relishing his financial warfare
strategies. He has Khamenei on the run, Maduro in Venezuela is being
attacked by remote-controlled drone, Xi suddenly looks ever so
fragile.

President Erdogan is a Shakespearean Figure, he has slayed Enemies
real and not real, his chest has been puffed up with Pride, he even
rescued the Emir of Qatar but he has now met his match, that match
being the markets. I hope he still has Madam Lagarde's number on speed
dial.

Such is the ultimate Bonfire of Populist Vanity. The Populist Leaders
with their cheer-leading claques have drunk their own Kool-Aid and
therein lies our ultimate salvation. They will be driven over the Edge

"The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"

President Erdogan is right at the Edge.

read more


Turkey's Erdogan pours oil into the fire again @Citi say @Schuldensuehner
Emerging Markets


Turkey’s Erdogan pours oil into the fire again. The threat to boycott
US electronic goods may unsettle some market participants, especially
as it risks further deterioration of US-Turkey diplomatic relations,
Citi says.

read more



[The End of] Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya
Emerging Markets


From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successful.

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Sudanese hit by bread shortages as currency crunch escalates @ReutersUK
Africa


The price of the Sudanese pound had been declining since the beginning
of the year after the government devalued the currency to 18 per U.S.
dollar, more than double its peg of 6.7 pounds to the dollar.

The pound, which has since been devalued further and is now officially
set at 29 pounds to the dollar, was trading at 40 pounds to the dollar
on the black market on Tuesday.

read more




Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.3496
Africa


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8950

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.73% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.66% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Two images of @ntvuganda journalists @zziwaherbert & Ronald Muwanga at Gulu Police Station taken earlier today @chapter4uganda
Africa


How can a person arrested while reporting live on TV be charged with
inciting violence and malicious damage?

read more






.@StanbicKE rallied +4.71% to close at a 2018 High of 100.00 and is +29.93% on a Total Return Basis in 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           100.00
Total Shares Issued:          395321638.00
Market Capitalization:        39,532,163,800
EPS:             10.9
PE:                 9.174

The Kenyan Banc assurance model includes CFC Bank, CFC Financial
Services and Heritage Assurance.

Stanbic Holdings H1 2018 Earnings here
H1 Loans and Advances [Net] to Customers 154.034135b versus 133.516337b +15.367%
H1 Intangible assets Goodwill 9.349759b versus 9.349759b
H1 Total Assets 278.780976b versus 234.258513b +19.005%
H1 Deposits from Banks and customers 215.772057b versus 177.860070b +21.315%
H1 Total Income 11.178106b versus 9.169368b +21.907%
H1 Non Interest Revenue 5.569913b versus 4.156997b +33.9988%
H1 Credit Impairment [253.269m] versus [1.817986b]
H1 Profit Before Tax 5.194482b versus 2.207897b +135.26%
H1 Profit After Tax 3.552326b versus 1.737229b +104.48%
H1 EPS 8.99 versus 4.39 +104.78%
H1 Dividend 2.25 versus 1.25 +80%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at period End 45.932735b versus 18.579702b

Conclusions


They were lapping a very big impairment in 2017 [related to South
Sudan if I recall correctly]
These are bulked up earnings which promise a lot.

read more


TPS @serenahotels reports H1 2018 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           25.00
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        4,554,352,700
EPS:             0.36
PE:                 69.444

6 month results through 30th June 2018 versus 30th June 2017
H1 2018 Sales 2.684910b versus 2.621823b +2.406%
H1 Profit exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results of
Associates and taxation 833.00 versus 86.319m
H1 2018 Loss before income tax [231.413m] versus [230.786m]
H1 2018 Loss after Taxation [168.61m] versus [188.796m]
H1 2018 EPS [1.12] versus [1.09] -2.75%
H1 Decrease in cash and cash equivalents [824.187m] versus [666.273m]

Company Commentary


There is increased interest in selling destination East Africa.
The first Phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena will be handed
over in August 2018
Given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa the
results for the first half should not be taken as a basis for
forecasting a Full Year's result.
The results for the period have been impacted by lower than expected
sales from the foreign leisure tourism arrivals in Kenya during Q1
No interim dividend

Conclusions


There is a material H2 Earnings skew.
I expected a stronger H1 but evidently Q2 strengthened versus Q1

read more







The Serena The Star
Kenyan Economy


MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the
managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The
Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds
me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth. That brand equity
was appreciated last Thursday at the Grosvenor House where The Serena
Hotels won the Best Hospitality, Travel and Tourism in Africa award at
the African Business Awards.

And now, Serena is clearly staking out a much more forward and
offensive position across the region and as you know by now, I sense
the Eastern sea board of Africa is at a tipping Point [The oil and gas
refers but just as important is the late cycle arrival of the
information century which is the entry ticket for Africa to join in
the c21st That Arrival of the Information Century is very grass roots
because anyone with an Internet enabled mobile phone has an entry
ticket and therefore, I see the expansion of the brand as timely and
riding a rising tide. The brand is established. Its got breadth, its
not a mom and pop operation. Sure, lots of folks are coming for Serena
lunch but their longevity, their ability to navigate has been proven
and their DNA make them a formidable competitor.

read more


Sugar bribe dished out in toilet - MP @TheStarkenya
Kenyan Economy


“They were telling us that money is not our mother’s [sic] and that we
were being too arrogant. They went to the toilets and corridors to
dish out money,” Wa Muchomba said in Kiandutu slums, Thika.

read more


PE company Catalyst buys mattress maker Superfoam
Kenyan Economy


stakes in Chai Bora (Tanzania), ChemiCotex (Tanzania), Effco Solutions
(Tanzania), Zenufa Laboratories (Tanzania), Jamii Bora Bank (Kenya),
Orbit Chemical Industries (Kenya) and Yes Brands (Ethiopia) as at May
last year.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.70
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -10.63% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.63% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


“If they have the iPhone, there is Samsung” as an alternative,
President Erdogan continued, referring to Apple’s principal rival in
the smartphone business, forgetting, however, that when he fended off
a coup attempt two years ago, he appealed to his supporters via
FaceTime, the Apple video chat app.
The Turkish Lira enjoyed its best day versus the dollar since October
2008 yesterday but President Erdogan has to capitulate before any
meaningful rebound from the -38% YTD position for the Lira.
President Erdogan will capitulate and that capitulation will be
signalled by a rate hike of between 5% and 7.5%. Its a Catch-22 - He
cannot bend monetary policy making to his will.
The US Dollar remains King and is essentially weaponised and like a
remote-controlled drone, it can blow up anyone anytime.
Emerging Market assets remain under intolerable selling pressure with
the Indian Rupee printing record lows above 70.00
Naspers Ltd., Africa’s largest company by value, plunged the most in
almost 10 years in Johannesburg trading after Chinese internet giant
Tencent Holdings Ltd in which it has a 31% stake posted earnings that
missed analyst estimates.
The South African Rand got slammed as much as 3.4 percent against the
dollar after Moody’s said the pace of South Africa’s fiscal
consolidation will be slower than government forecasts as
weaker-than-expected economic growth and a rising public sector wage
bill act as fiscal headwinds. The statement came shortly after central
bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said growth projections were “worrying”
and hinted policy makers aren’t about to raise rates [Bloomberg]
Meanwhile the surprise in the currency Markets in 2018 is the Kenya
Shilling which is +2.7% YTD and the 3rd best performing currency
world-wide.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi reported a +269.97% surge in  H1 2018 EPS, a +12.03% increase
in H1 2018 Sales which clocked 613.118m. Kakuzi said
During the period under review, tea profits improved due to higher
volumes and firm prices in Q1.
Avocado results are significantly improved on last year's performance
due to increased volumes and a strong winter market in Europe. Total
containers shipped to the end of June were 73% higher than previous
year.
These are Strong results. I like the Pivot to Avocados. Its an
attractively priced share. Kakuzi did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


TPS Serena Hotels reported H1 2018 Earnings here where H1 2018 Sales
increased +2.406% to register 2.684910b, Serena booked a First Half
Loss after Tax of [168.61m] versus [188.796m] and reported a
[824.187m] decrease in H1 cash and cash equivalents. TPS said the
following in their accompanying commentary
There is increased interest in selling destination East Africa.
The first Phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena will be handed
over in August 2018
Given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa the
results for the first half should not be taken as a basis for
forecasting a Full Year's result.
The results for the period have been impacted by lower than expected
sales from the foreign leisure tourism arrivals in Kenya during Q1
There is a material H2 Earnings skew. I expected a stronger H1 but
evidently Q2 strengthened versus Q1. TPS Serena Hotels traded 400
shares and closed unchanged at 25.00. TPS Serena is -23.076% in 2018.

Safaricom firmed +0.87% to close at 29.00 and traded 8.721m shares
worth 252.982m. Safaricom is +8.411% ahead of a juicy Full Year
Dividend Pay-Out which will juice returns even further.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Stanbic Bank Kenya surged +5.00% to close at Fresh 2018 High of 105.
StanBic Holdings is +36.11% on a Total Return Basis in 2018 and after
reporting a +104.78% H1 2018 EPS surge it still has more to go the
upside.
Equity Bank retreated -1.904% to close at 51.50 and was trading at
session lows of 49.75 -5.25% at the closing Bell. Equity traded 3.972m
shares worth 206.206m.
KCB Group eased -1.00% to close at 49.50 and traded 1.366m shares worth 67.73m.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Long-serving ARM Cement  chief executive Pradeep Paunrana has been
ousted in a management shake-up of the troubled company orchestrated
by UK sovereign wealth fund CDC Group. CDC, which owns a 42 per cent
stake in the troubled Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE)-listed  cement
maker, has also made other key boardroom changes that will see
businessman Linus Gitahi take over as chairman.ARM firmed +1.05% to
close at 4.80 and remains -63.076% in 2018.

KenGen firmed 5 cents to close at 6.45.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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