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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 02nd of August 2018

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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Macro Thoughts

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26 Jul 2018 Actually I think @POTUS has taken Xi down a few notches.

Actually I think @POTUS has taken Xi down a few notches. @ianbremmer
and in what is a game of Chicken has open Xi's eyes to the downside
risk which looks precipitous and of a Fat Tail nature

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26 Jul 2018 The method in his madness is the triangulation of China and a serious ratcheting higher of pressure. Xi is looking more brittle. #BRICS2018

.@BarackObama spoke of bending the Arc of History whereas @Potus bends
the Arc of Reality but having said that the method in his madness is
the triangulation of China and a serious ratcheting higher of
pressure. Xi is looking more brittle. #BRICS2018

Home Thoughts

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One of the beautiful huge bull elephants we encountered in Ruaha @FiMackay

One of the beautiful huge bull elephants we encountered in Ruaha. This
one was in the area known as the small Serengeti. He cut his way
through the long meadow grasses laden with delicate purple blooms, his
testosterone fuelled aroma drifting towards us ahead of his arrival.

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@WWFTANZANIA @PrecisionAir what a top view of Mt Kilimanjaro. The Kili 'eye' just amazing.

@WWFTANZANIA @PrecisionAir what a top view of Mt Kilimanjaro. The Kili
'eye' just amazing. Manouvert by a very highly skilled pilot for
Precision Air.  This is a unique product to your cusomers. We must
join hands to protect this unique ecosystem.

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Zimbabwe Electoral Commission's results showed Mnangagwa's ZANU-PF cruising to a big majority
Law & Politics

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s results showed Mnangagwa’s ZANU-PF
cruising to a big majority after picking up 109 seats against 41 for
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Another 58 seats
are yet to be declared.

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A key consideration amid what is unfolding in Harare is whether the Zimbabwean military is acting in accordance or against the wishes of President Mnangagwa. @Pol_Sec_Analyst
Law & Politics

A key consideration amid what is unfolding in Harare is whether the
Zimbabwean military is acting in accordance or against the wishes of
President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Not sure which outcome of the two
outcomes is more troubling

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John Mahama, Chief Observer @commonwealthsec group ''"there will be a winner and there will be a loser'' @harumutasa
Law & Politics

"there will be a winner and there will be a loser but Zimbabwe as a
country will be the overall winner if everybody plays their part well.
Whoever wins must be magnanimous in victory, and whoever loses must be
gracious in defeat.”

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Deadly riots rock Zimbabwe's capital as vote results delayed @AP
Law & Politics

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Soldiers and police fired live rounds, water
cannons and tear gas at furious protesters who threw rocks and burned
vehicles Wednesday in Zimbabwe’s capital, dashing the optimism of an
election that the country hoped would set it on a new course after
decades of Robert Mugabe’s rule. At least three people were reported

Violence swept through central Harare after an official announcement
that the ruling ZANU-PF party had won most of the seats in Parliament,
an outcome that enraged opposition supporters who believe they have
been cheated of victory.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s decision to delay announcing the
results of the presidential race at least until Thursday — three days
after the vote — seemed certain to bring more opposition anger if
President Emmerson Mnangagwa is declared the winner. Alternatively,
many Zimbabweans wonder whether the ruling establishment, including
the military, would accept a win for the main opposition leader,
Nelson Chamisa.

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Trying to persuade the 17th century Inquisition that the Earth rotates around the Sun @SirSocks
Law & Politics

You know when you've got the other side on the run. They take refuge
in abuse. Trying to get people to grasp that there is merit in the WTO
Brexit option is like trying to persuade the 17th century Inquisition
that the Earth rotates around the Sun.

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This is a terrible situation and Attorney General Jeff Sessions should stop this Rigged Witch Hunt right now, before it continues to stain our country any further @realDonaldTrump
Law & Politics

This is a terrible situation and Attorney General Jeff Sessions should
stop this Rigged Witch Hunt right now, before it continues to stain
our country any further. Bob Mueller is totally conflicted, and his 17
Angry Democrats that are doing his dirty work are a disgrace to USA!

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Law & Politics

Looking back on history, who was treated worse, Alfonse Capone,
legendary mob boss, killer and “Public Enemy Number One,” or Paul
Manafort, political operative & Reagan/Dole darling, now serving
solitary confinement - although convicted of nothing? Where is the
Russian Collusion?

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Japanese bond market finally getting interesting again @ReutersJamie
International Trade

10y yield has biggest one-day fall for 2 years yesterday ... and
biggest one-day rise for 2 years today

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
Law & Politics

If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1632
Dollar Index 94.74
Japan Yen 111.64
Swiss Franc 0.9928
Pound 1.3085
Aussie 0.7380
India Rupee 68.355
South Korea Won 1124.21
Brazil Real 3.7491
Egypt Pound 17.8330
South Africa Rand 13.2585

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Is this a turning point for Elon Musk and Tesla?
World Currencies

“Only time will tell, but in our view, today’s results were clearly a
step in the right direction,” he wrote in a report to clients. “A few
years from now, investors may conclude that 2Q18 was the quarter in
which Tesla cemented its position as a truly formidable player in the
global automotive market.”

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#silver and #gold forming possible bear pennants in their dive into the dredges. @PeterLBrandt

#silver and #gold forming possible bear pennants in their dive into
the dredges. $SLV $SI_F $GLD $GC_F  I know, I know ... it is all part
of manipulation by the Comex to drive prices lower so that  whales can
scoop up cheap metal

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Emerging Markets

THIRTEEN HOURS BEFORE Secretary of State Rex Tillerson learned from
the presidential Twitter feed that he was being fired, he did
something that President Donald Trump had been unwilling to do.
Following a phone call with his British counterpart, Tillerson
condemned a deadly nerve agent attack in the U.K., saying that he had
“full confidence in the U.K.’s investigation and its assessment that
Russia was likely responsible.”

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders had called the attack
“reckless, indiscriminate, and irresponsible,” but stopped short of
blaming Russia, leading numerous media outlets to speculate that
Tillerson was fired for criticizing Russia.

But in the months that followed his departure, press reports strongly
suggested that the countries lobbying hardest for Tillerson’s removal
were Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which were
frustrated by Tillerson’s attempts to mediate and end their blockade
of Qatar. One report in the New York Times even suggested that the UAE
ambassador to Washington knew that Tillerson would be forced out three
months before he was fired in March

In the summer of 2017, several months before the Gulf allies started
pushing for his ouster, Tillerson intervened to stop a secret
Saudi-led, UAE-backed plan to invade and essentially conquer Qatar,
according to one current member of the U.S. intelligence community and
two former State Department officials, all of whom declined to be
named, citing the sensitivity of the matter.

In the days and weeks after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain
cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and closed down their land, sea, and
air borders with the country, Tillerson made a series of phone calls
urging Saudi officials not to take military action against the
country. The flurry of calls in June 2017 has been reported, but State
Department and press accounts at the time described them as part of a
broad-strokes effort to resolve tensions in the Gulf, not as an
attempt by Tillerson to avert a Saudi-led military operation.

In the calls, Tillerson, who dealt extensively with the Qatari
government as the CEO of Exxon Mobil, urged Saudi King Salman,
then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Foreign Minister
Adel al-Jubeir not to attack Qatar or otherwise escalate hostilities,
the sources told The Intercept. Tillerson also encouraged Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis to call his counterparts in Saudi Arabia to
explain the dangers of such an invasion. Al Udeid Air Base near Doha,
Qatar’s capital city, is the forward headquarters of U.S. Central
Command and home to some 10,000 American troops.

Pressure from Tillerson caused Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler
of the country, to back down, concerned that the invasion would damage
Saudi Arabia’s long-term relationship with the U.S. But Tillerson’s
intervention enraged Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi
and effective ruler of that country, according to the U.S.
intelligence official and a source close to the Emirati royal family,
who declined to be identified, citing concerns about his safety.

“It’s unsustainable,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institute and 30-year CIA officer, in a lecture last
November. “In the three years since [King Salman] ascended to the
throne, one third of Saudi Arabia’s reserves have already been spent.
You don’t need to have an MBA from the Wharton school to figure out
what that means six years from now.”

If the Saudis had succeeded in seizing Doha, they would potentially
have been able to gain access to the country’s $320 billion sovereign
wealth fund.

Mazrouei’s account frequently tweets sexually suggestive content
directed at Mozah bint Nasser, the mother of the emir of Qatar. Just
last week, Mazrouei tweeted a video of a man and woman – with Mazrouei
and Sheikha Mozah’s faces photoshopped onto their bodies – doing a
raunchy bump-and-grind.

The content and audacity of Mazrouei’s tweets have led to speculation
in Qatari media that the account is actually controlled by the crown
prince of Abu Dhabi himself.


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Qatari stocks have made a breakthrough, recouping their losses from the trade and travel embargo imposed on the nation 14 months ago by its neighbours
Emerging Markets

The QE Index advanced 1.5 percent on Wednesday, bringing its increase
this year to 17 percent, among the biggest gains in the world. While
the country’s dollar bonds haven’t fared as well, the yield on debt
due 2026 narrowed about 40 basis points since reaching a peak in May.

the yield on Qatar’s bond maturing in 2028 is one basis point above
Saudi Arabia’s debt of similar maturity as of 1:18 p.m. in London on
Wednesday, even though the former is rated one level higher by

Frontier Markets

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Ethiopia reform push faces major snag: red tape

Businessmen who have to deal with Ethiopia’s customs system like to
joke that if you get a permit to import yellow paintbrushes, make sure
every last one is yellow.

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Egypt government debt service climbs to 108% of GDP in 2017/18 via @ahramonline

Egypt government debt service climbs to 108% of GDP in 2017/18;
interest on external debate more than tripled compared to previous yr
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/308871.aspx … via @ahramonline

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8330


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.26% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.63% 2018


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@KenolKobil reports H1 2018 PAT +16.06% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           18.10
Total Shares Issued:          1471761200.00
Market Capitalization:        26,638,877,720
EPS:             1.67
PE:                 10.838

H1 2018 Earnings through 30th June 2018
H1 Sales 90.192351b versus 72.637710b +24.16%
H1 Cost of Sales [86.581853b] versus [68.570962b]
H1 Gross Profit 3.610498b versus 4.066748b
H1 Other Income 278.874m versus 282.175m
H1 Admin and Operating costs [893.937m] versus [1.668955b] -46%
[absence of one-off provision]
H1 EBITDA 3.022652b versus 2.654362b
H1 Profit before Tax 2.373482b versus 2.080448b +14.085%
H1 Profit after Tax 1.651042b versus 1.422459b +16.06%
EPS 2.13 versus 1.83 +16.39%
Net Increase in Cash and cash Equivalents 1.124516b versus [1.180942b]
Interim Dividend 0.36 versus 0.30 +20%

Company Commentary

Volume Growth +8.00%
EBITDA Growth +14%


Muscular results. Interim Dividend hiked +20% sums up the muscle.
They were lapping a one off provision but once again one cannot argue
with these results which has now been a trend for a while.
Execution has really been immaculate

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.@CarrefourKe sales up 143 per cent in first six months @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

Majid Al Futtaim, the exclusive holder of French retailer Carrefour’s
franchise in Kenya, has recorded a 143 per cent jump in turnover in
the first six months of the year, riding on accelerated expansion of
the supermarket chain in Nairobi.
The Dubai-based conglomerate which opened its first store in Nairobi
in 2016 made public its Kenya half-year sales in a newly-released
financial report that cited Nairobi as one its strongest growth
“Thanks to the group’s diversification efforts, significant growth was
seen in Kenya and Egypt, with revenue increasing 143 per cent and 22
per cent respectively,” said the retailer whose business around the
world generated strong revenue growth of 15 per cent to AED14.6
billion (about Sh399.2 billion). Carrefour is not required to disclose
financial information to the public locally as it is not listed on the
stock market.
The retailer declined to disclose its Kenyan sales figures.
“In 2018 we doubled our footprint in Kenya- with two of the new stores
opened in the first half of the year and the third opened in July. It
is this, coupled with the stability of our other stores, that has
contributed to the growth in revenues,” said Franck Moreau, the Majid
Al Futtaim Retail country manager for Kenya.

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.@KWSKenya on the verge of collapse, audit firm PwC says in new report @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

 the year ending June 2016 declared the
KWS insolvent with a Sh5.8 billion deficit.
The report also showed that the service had not remitted Sh1.45
billion as staff contribution to NSSF.
"This means that the continued sustainability of KWS is dependent on
regular government support, development partners and creditors," PWC
report states.
"Due to financial challenges, the board, without seeking necessary
statutory approvals from Treasury, had diverted endowment funds and
compensation for land hived off from National parks for construction
of SGR and southern bypass to meet operational obligations."

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Kenyan Economy

Veterinarians have given Tourism CS Najib Balala seven days to
reinstate their colleagues who were suspended following the death of
10 rhinos.
The Kenya Veterinary Association (KVA) and the Union of Veterinary
Practitioners in Kenya (UVPK) also want a report that led to the
suspensions revoked.
They threatened to sue, saying Balala’s comments injured the character
of their colleagues.
UVPK national chairman Benson Kibore yesterday termed the report by an
inquiry team “fake.”
“It was generated by one [person] with a conflict of interest and an
alien,” he told the media.
The unions said their colleagues were sacrificial lambs, yet they did
their work professionally.
They want Balala, PS Margaret Mwakima and KWS acting director general
Julius Kimani to shoulder responsibility.
The unions addressed the media at Professional Centre along Parliament Road.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2018

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