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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 28th of August 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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@UN report details 'devastating cruelty' against Rohingya population in Myanmar's Rakhine province
Africa


In a report issued today, the United Nations human rights arm said
that the widespread human rights violations against the Rohingya
population by Myanmar's security forces in the country's northern
Rakhine state indicate the very likely commission of crimes against
humanity.

The flash report – released today by the Office of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) based on its interviews with
people who fled Myanmar after attacks on a border post in early
October, the ensuing counter military operations and a lockdown in
north Maungdaw – documents mass gang-rape, killings, including of
babies and young children, brutal beatings, disappearances and other
serious human rights violations by the country's security forces.

“The devastating cruelty to which these Rohingya children have been
subjected is unbearable – what kind of hatred could make a man stab a
baby crying out for his mother's milk. And for the mother to witness
this murder while she is being gang-raped by the very security forces
who should be protecting her,” said UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein.

OHCHR noted that more than half of the women its human rights team
interviewed reported having suffered rape or other forms of sexual
violence. Many other interviewees reported witnessing killings,
including of family members and having family who were missing.

Many witnesses and victims also described being taunted while they
were being beaten, raped or rounded up, such as being told “you are
Bangladeshis and you should go back” or “What can your Allah do for
you? See what we can do?”

read more





Image-conscious China appoints new global propaganda car @AP H/T @ABCNews
Law & Politics


China's increasingly image-conscious government has appointed a
trusted member of the ruling Communist Party to head up its
international propaganda operation.

Former top internet regulator Xu Lin will be in charge of efforts to
portray China as a progressive force for good in the world at a time
when it's facing criticism over its allegedly unfair trading
practices, human rights abuses and militarization of island claims in
the South China Sea.

Conclusions

read more




The U.S.'s trade war with China is about to get uglier.
Law & Politics


After a long, hot summer spent weighing risks and firing warning
shots, the hawks in President Donald Trump’s administration have
gained the upper hand.
“We’re facing an escalating trade war over the next few months,” says
David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, who served as the U.S.
Treasury’s top man in China under the Obama administration.
“Not enough focus has been put on China. And that’s been for a long
time,” the president told legislators gathered at the White House on
Thursday to mark the passage of a law giving yet more powers to the
already powerful Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which
can block acquisitions on national security grounds.

FT Confidential says its measure of consumer sentiment in China
fell sharply in August to its lowest level in 16 months  Sui-Lee Wee
黄瑞黎 @suilee

https://twitter.com/suilee/status/1034260971949154304

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Trudeau spoke with Trump Monday, with the prime minister's office describing it as a "constructive" call @business
Law & Politics


Trudeau looks forward to talks this week “with a view to a successful
conclusion of negotiations.”

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How social media took us from Tahrir Square to Donald Trump @MIT @techreview
Law & Politics


To understand how digital technologies went from instruments for
spreading democracy to weapons for attacking it, you have to look
beyond the technologies themselves.
As the Arab Spring convulsed the Middle East in 2011 and authoritarian
leaders toppled one after another, I traveled the region to try to
understand the role that technology was playing. I chatted with
protesters in cafés near Tahrir Square in Cairo, and many asserted
that as long as they had the internet and the smartphone, they would
prevail. In Tunisia, emboldened activists showed me how they had used
open-source tools to track the shopping trips to Paris that their
autocratic president’s wife had taken on government planes. Even
Syrians I met in Beirut were still optimistic; their country had not
yet descended into a hellish war. The young people had energy, smarts,
humor, and smartphones, and we expected that the region’s fate would
turn in favor of their democratic demands.
Back in the United States, at a conference talk in 2012, I used a
screenshot from a viral video recorded during the Iranian street
protests of 2009 to illustrate how the new technologies were making it
harder for traditional information gatekeepers—like governments and
the media—to stifle or control dissident speech. It was a difficult
image to see: a young woman lay bleeding to death on the sidewalk. But
therein resided its power. Just a decade earlier, it would most likely
never have been taken (who carried video cameras all the time?), let
alone gone viral (how, unless you owned a TV station or a newspaper?).
Even if a news photographer had happened to be there, most news
organizations wouldn’t have shown such a graphic image.
The new information gatekeepers, which didn’t see themselves as
gatekeepers but merely as neutral “platforms,” nonetheless liked the
upending potential of their technologies.
Power always learns, and powerful tools always fall into its hands.
This is a hard lesson of history but a solid one. It is key to
understanding how, in seven years, digital technologies have gone from
being hailed as tools of freedom and change to being blamed for
upheavals in Western democracies—for enabling increased polarization,
rising authoritarianism, and meddling in national elections by Russia
and others.
Barack Obama’s election in 2008 as the first African-American
president of the United States had prefigured the Arab Spring’s
narrative of technology empowering the underdog. He was an unlikely
candidate who had emerged triumphant, beating first Hillary Clinton in
the Democratic primary and then his Republican opponent in the general
election. Both his 2008 and 2012 victories prompted floods of
laudatory articles on his campaign’s tech-savvy, data-heavy use of
social media, voter profiling, and microtargeting. After his second
win, MIT Technology Review featured Bono on its cover, with the
headline “Big Data Will Save Politics” and a quote: “The mobile phone,
the Net, and the spread of information—a deadly combination for
dictators.”
However, I and many others who watched authoritarian regimes were
already worried. A key issue for me was how microtargeting, especially
on Facebook, could be used to wreak havoc with the public sphere. It
was true that social media let dissidents know they were not alone,
but online microtargeting could also create a world in which you
wouldn’t know what messages your neighbors were getting or how the
ones aimed at you were being tailored to your desires and
vulnerabilities.
Digital platforms allowed communities to gather and form in new ways,
but they also dispersed existing communities, those that had watched
the same TV news and read the same newspapers. Even living on the same
street meant less when information was disseminated through algorithms
designed to maximize revenue by keeping people glued to screens. It
was a shift from a public, collective politics to a more private,
scattered one, with political actors collecting more and more personal
data to figure out how to push just the right buttons, person by
person and out of sight.
Donald Trump, as is widely acknowledged, excels at using Twitter to
capture attention. But his campaign also excelled at using Facebook as
it was designed to be used by advertisers, testing messages on
hundreds of thousands of people and microtargeting them with the ones
that worked best. Facebook had embedded its own employees within the
Trump campaign to help it use the platform effectively (and thus spend
a lot of money on it), but they were also impressed by how well Trump
himself performed. In later internal memos, reportedly, Facebook would
dub the Trump campaign an “innovator” that it might learn from.
Facebook also offered its services to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, but
it chose to use them much less than Trump’s did.
Second, the new, algorithmic gatekeepers aren’t merely (as they like
to believe) neutral conduits for both truth and falsehood. They make
their money by keeping people on their sites and apps; that aligns
their incentives closely with those who stoke outrage, spread
misinformation, and appeal to people’s existing biases and
preferences. Old gatekeepers failed in many ways, and no doubt that
failure helped fuel mistrust and doubt; but the new gatekeepers
succeed by fueling mistrust and doubt, as long as the clicks keep
coming.
Facebook’s original mission statement (which the social network
changed in 2017, after a backlash against its role in spreading
misinformation). It was to make the world “more open and connected.”
It turns out that this isn’t necessarily an unalloyed good. Open to
what, and connected how? The need to ask those questions is perhaps
the biggest lesson of all.

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"The king is obsessed with the idea of how history will judge him. Will he be the king who sold @Saudi_Aramco who sold Palestine?" the second source said. Reuters
Law & Politics


The king’s interlocutors told him that the IPO, far from helping the
kingdom, would undermine it. Their main concern was that an IPO would
bring full public disclosure of Aramco’s financial details, the
sources said.

In late June, the king sent a message to his diwan, or administrative
office, demanding that the IPO be called off, the three sources said.
The king’s decision is final, a second source said.

“Whenever he says ‘no’, there is no budging,” the source said.

read more


13-NOV-2017 :: The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is real and existential.
Law & Politics


In all the history books I have read, its probably wisest to operate
on one front not two and certainly not three. The desperate impulse to
act is also up against a four- year deadline. The speed of decline in
FX reserves produces a 48 month shelf-life.

read more




The Islamic Republic of Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is an international waterway @SecPompeo
Law & Politics


The Islamic Republic of Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait is an international waterway. The United States will
continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and
free flow of commerce in international waterways.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1671
Dollar Index 94.82
Japan Yen 111.21
Swiss Franc 0.9802
Pound 1.2867
Aussie 0.7325
India Rupee 70.115
South Korea Won 1109.59
Brazil Real 4.0784
Egypt Pound 17.9023
South Africa Rand 14.2067

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Zambia's Eurobonds have lost 10 percent this month, more than any of the 75 countries in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Sovereign Bond Index
Africa


Zambia’s Eurobonds have lost 10 percent this month, more than any of
the 75 countries in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD
Sovereign Bond Index. That’s extended their decline to 23 percent this
year and sent spreads over U.S. Treasuries soaring to more than 1,000
basis points.

The southern African nation’s creditworthiness has been downgraded
twice in the past month. S&P Global Ratings cut the foreign-currency
rating to B-, six steps into junk territory, last week, saying that
the budget deficit and pace of debt-accumulation would be higher than
it previously forecast. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its
assessment to Caa1 shortly before that.

Yields on Zambia’s $1 billion of notes maturing in 2024 fell 1 basis
point to 13.86 percent on Monday, though they’re still up about 740
basis points in 2018.

“Zambia’s yields could rise further because its fundamentals are still
very fragile,” said Kaan Nazli, a strategist in The Hague with
Neuberger Berman, a $300 billion money manager that owns Zambian
Eurobonds. “It’s not a place that investors would rush into even if
emerging markets become popular again. People will be cautious about
Zambia until it produces better numbers or gets an IMF deal.”

The country’s revenue streams are strong enough to avert a default at
least until 2022, when $750 million of Eurobonds mature, said Nazli. A
spokesman for the Ministry of Finance in Lusaka, the capital, didn’t
immediately reply to an emailed request for comment.

“There doesn’t seem to be much urgency at the moment from Zambian
officials to get an IMF program in place,” said Brett Rowley, a Los
Angeles-based managing director at TCW Group Inc., which manages
almost $200 billion of assets, including Zambian securities. “But most
people agree that’s the endgame. The emerging-market selloff has left
them even more exposed. Until an IMF program is in place, Zambia will
be seen as one of the more vulnerable emerging markets.”

read more


@theresa_may seeks to match @EmmanuelMacron influence in Africa @FT
Africa


Theresa May lands in Cape Town on Tuesday to strengthen Britain’s
post-Brexit “global partnerships”.

Travelling with her on the first UK prime ministerial trip to
sub-Saharan Africa for five years is an entourage of 29 business
leaders including Bill Winters, the chief executive of Standard
Chartered, and LSE head David Schwimmer. She will describe African
states as “on the cusp of a transformative role in the global
economy”.

Mrs May will announce a boost to UK diplomat numbers on the continent
alongside commercial deals as she visits first South Africa, then
Nigeria and Kenya.

But the UK is widely seen as arriving too late to compete for
significant influence. France’s Emmanuel Macron has visited 11
countries on his nine trips to the continent since becoming president
last May — most recently Nigeria, a country at the heart of British
strategic interests in Africa.

Chinese leaders have also regularly visited, as well as pumping in
significant financing. Xi Jinping’s first foreign visit after becoming
president in 2013 was to the continent. A typical four-nation trip
last month took in South Africa and Rwanda, whose leader Paul Kagame,
extols Beijing’s friendship as he builds a tightly-controlled
developmental state in its image.

Although Mrs May will also talk about the big picture of the UK’s
partnership with African countries, in South Africa, there will also
be technical discussions over post-Brexit trade.

Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016 just as the bloc was finalising
a wide-ranging trade preference deal with South Africa and other
members of a regional customs union. While the UK will also leave this
treaty when it exits the EU, it provides a template to draw up a
post-Brexit stopgap while the UK and South Africa work out a future
free-trade treaty.

“They will basically copy and paste it. There won’t be much resistance
to doing that from South Africa,” said Peter Leon, a partner in the
Johannesburg office of Herbert Smith Freehills. South African
officials say they are focused on avoiding disruption after Brexit to
wine, rooibos tea and citrus fruit arriving on supermarket shelves.

The timing could be working in the UK’s favour. With jitters over
Donald Trump’s protectionist stance in the US, Cyril Ramaphosa’s
government is likely to be more open to discussing a post-Brexit
relationship, said Mr Leon.

But there are few templates for a future deal beyond the Brexit
transition. South Africa’s recent EU trade deal focused on goods, not
the services in which the UK would probably seek to expand its
exports.

There is also realism about the size of the continent’s economies. The
three countries that Mrs May is visiting may well be Africa’s
powerhouses, but the combined nominal GDP of Kenya, Nigeria and South
Africa barely matches the Netherlands.

Mrs May talks of inserting post-Brexit Britain into a “more
prosperous, growing and trading Africa”. However, compared to existing
trade with the EU, Mr Leon said that even South Africa for now “is
infinitesimal”.

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My Mind then looped back to another Speech which was delivered to the Parliament in Cape Town on February 3rd 1960 and by a British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan who said
Africa


My Mind then looped back to another Speech which was delivered to the
Parliament in Cape Town but that speech was delivered on February 3rd
1960 and by a British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan who said

''The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we
like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political
fact''

''Africa is not a Country'' is a ubiquitous meme and at its core is an
absolute Truth. The Continent is non-linear. Kinshasa is not Addis
Ababa is not Lagos is not Pretoria. However, ''a wind of change is
blowing through this continent''

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Seeking Brexit Friends, U.K. Aims to Be Africa's Top Investor @business
Africa


The U.K. aims to become the top foreign investor in Africa by 2022,
Prime Minister Theresa May will say on Tuesday as she seeks to
strengthen Britain’s global economic ties to show it’s open for
business after Brexit.

May will pledge to ensure Britain’s aid budget serves the national
interest as well as fighting poverty, and helping the private sector
“to take root’’ in Africa’s growing economies, according to extracts
of the speech emailed in advance by her office. She’ll say that
working with African nations to boost investment, create jobs and
deliver stability will help stem migration flows to Europe.

“As prime minister of a trading nation whose success depends on global
markets, I want to see strong African economies that British companies
can do business with in a free and fair fashion,’’ May will say in
Cape Town. “Whether through creating new customers for British
exporters or opportunities for British investors, our integrated
global economy means healthy African economies are good news for
British people as well as African people.”

May will meet with the presidents of South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya
on her 5-day trip, her first visit to the continent since becoming
prime minister. She’ll discuss trade opportunities as Britain gears up
to leave the European Union in March. She’ll also discuss efforts to
tackle extremism, and a delegation of 29 business executives will
accompany her as she seeks to drum up business for Britain.

“By 2022, I want the U.K. to be the G7’s number one investor in
Africa, with Britain’s private sector companies taking the lead in
investing the billions that will see African economies growing by
trillions,” May will say. “It is the private sector that is the key to
driving that growth -- transforming labor markets, opening up
opportunity and unleashing entrepreneurial spirit. And the U.K. has
the companies that can invest in and trade with Africa to do just
this.”

United Nations figures put annual U.K. investment in the continent at
$55 billion -- ahead of France’s $49 billion and second to the U.S. on
$57 billion

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Ugandan high court grants bail to lawmaker @HEBobiwine charged with treason: judge @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Ugandan high court judge, Stephen Mubiru, granted bail on Monday to an
opposition lawmaker charged with treason over his alleged role in the
stoning of President Yoweri Museveni’s convoy this month.

read more


NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa
Africa


What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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The Chinese model is failing Africa FT
Africa


Leaders from across Africa will gather in Beijing next week for the
Forum on China Africa Co-operation. This triennial summit is where
China makes the headline-grabbing aid and finance commitments that
underpin its role as Africa’s most important economic partner,
fostering new political and military co-operation in a region often
ignored by western governments.

Nearly a decade ago, China surpassed the US to become Africa’s largest
trading partner. Last year, its two-way trade hit $170bn — four times
larger than US-Africa commerce.

But after more than a decade of vaulting growth in trade, finance and
investment, China’s weighty engagement is jeopardising future
development prospects in Africa.

The continent holds a special place in the story of China’s modern
rise. Before launching its Belt and Road Initiative, the plan to
develop trade and infrastructure links across Eurasia, China was
building hydropower dams in Sudan and new railways in Nigeria and
Ethiopia. And it was in the tiny but geostrategic country of Djibouti
on the Red Sea that Beijing established its first overseas military
base.

Beijing’s plans for Africa do not stop there. President Xi Jinping is
keen for China to serve as an economic and political model for the
developing world. He hopes that China’s infrastructure finance and
manufacturing investment in Africa will spur industrialisation and
development.

But to be productive and contribute to economic development,
infrastructure needs to be high-quality and high-performing. And the
evidence shows that China’s infrastructure-driven economic model has
been far from efficient and is one to avoid rather than emulate. Over
half of China’s infrastructure projects are under-performing, damaging
rather than fuelling growth and leaving an enormous debt burden for
the domestic economy.

These same risks are now manifesting themselves in Africa. Take the
standard gauge railway in Kenya, built and financed by China.
Completed last year to connect Nairobi, the capital, with the port
city of Mombasa, the railway was grossly overpriced at $3.2bn. Instead
of refurbishing the existing line, a far cheaper option, Kenya paid
China three times more than the industry standard.

Struggling infrastructure projects like this have intensified a rising
debt problem for large and small African economies alike. Now it is
hoped investment from China will generate the necessary jobs and
revenues for countries to avoid infrastructure-induced debt crises.

But, beyond pockets of growth, the prospects are slim that Africa will
capture a large amount of new manufacturing investment and labour. The
majority of Chinese manufacturers are, in fact, staying at home and
taking advantage of the growing cost effectiveness of automation. And
those that do venture abroad regularly choose south and south-east
Asia over Africa.

Africans are not blind to the dangers that lie in Chinese engagement
on the continent. Political elites and boutique consultancies may be
cashing in. However, influential voices, such as Nigeria’s former
finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, have cautioned against following
China’s state-led growth model, arguing it can feed corruption.

Africa needs to better leverage its position with Chinese and other
foreign investors. It can group together the growing markets of its
regional blocs, such as the East African Community, to negotiate more
rewarding trade and financial deals.

African leaders can also exploit the geopolitical symbolism Beijing
attaches to its engagement there to extract meaningful technology
transfers to improve the competitiveness of domestic firms.

The fanfare of next week’s forum is likely to be shortlived. The China
model is failing Africa. In the coming years, it will become
increasingly difficult for African leaders to ignore the lacklustre
results on the ground. They must now re-evaluate their relationship
with China and, instead of living out Mr Xi’s dreams for the Chinese
model, carve out their own development path.

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Why Ethiopians believe their new prime minister is a prophet @CNN
Africa


At 6 am when Gutama Habro arrived at the Target Arena in Minneapolis,
Minnesota, the line for tickets already snaked around the block.
Within hours, 20,000 fans had packed the venue. "People around me were
crying," says Gutama, a 28-year-old medical laboratory scientist.
"Seeing this was a dream come true."

Gutama wasn't at a pop concert. This was the final leg of Ethiopian
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's three-city American tour. Held in July, it
was the first time the 42-year-old had visited the more than 251,000
Ethiopians living in the United States, many in self-imposed exile --
fleeing ethnic clashes, violence, and political instability in their
homeland. "The level of hope was something we had not seen since the
election of Barack Obama," says Mohammed Ademo, an activist who fled
to the US in 2002 and founded OPride.com, a news outlet that was
blocked for years at home.

Abiy has freed thousands of political prisoners, unblocked hundreds of
censored websites, ended the 20-year state of war with Eritrea, lifted
a state of emergency, and planned to open key economic sectors to
private investors, including the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines.

In the capital city of Addis Ababa, taxi windscreens are plastered
with Abiy stickers, while citizens are changing their Whatsapp and
Facebook profile pictures to pro-Abiy slogans and spending their money
on Abiy T-shirts. Elias Tesfaye, a garment factory owner, says that in
the past six weeks he has sold 20,000 T-shirts bearing Abiy's face,
which cost about 300 birr ($10) each. In June, an estimated four
million people attended a rally Abiy gave in the capital's Meskel
Square.

Tom Gardner, a British journalist who lives in Addis Ababa, says there
is an almost religious fervor to what has been dubbed "Abiymania."
"People talk quite openly about seeing him as the son of God or a
prophet," he says.

The TPLF began as a small band of guerrilla fighters from the Tigray
ethnic group, who account for six percent of Ethiopia's population. As
the party prepared to assume power, in 1989, it engineered a coalition
with larger ethnic groups, such as the Oromo and Amhara, to bolster
its legitimacy. The catch? "The TPFL formed the rest of the parties --
they don't have an autonomous existence," says Tsedale Lemma,
editor-in-chief of the Addis Standard, an independent newspaper.

Until Abiy, that coalition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF), ruled with an iron fist. Government
marginalization of other ethnic groups prompted an exodus of
professionals from the nation and secession cries from the Oromo at
home. Government plans to annex Oromo farmland in order to expand
Addis Ababa saw civil unrest explode across Ethiopia in recent years.

"Everyone feared that if Ethiopia didn't get an Oromo leader then the
nation would collapse into civil war," says Abel Wabela, a former
engineer for Ethiopian Airlines, who was imprisoned for blogging about
democracy under the previous administration. "Luckily, we got Abiy."

Abiy is nothing like those who came before him. He hugs politicians in
public, takes selfies with fans, and doesn't just smile for the
cameras, he beams. His message to Ethiopia's ethnic groups has been:
"Take down the wall, build the bridge."

In Minnesota, he asked the crowd to "medemer," literally, be added to
one another. "If you want to be the pride of your generation," he
said, "then you must decide that Oromos, Amharas, Wolaytas, Gurages,
and Siltes are all equally Ethiopian." In a country physically carved
up along ethnic lines (many groups were given their own region to
govern in 1991, as the country moved to ethnic federalist politics),
this is a revolutionary message.

"For a country like Ethiopia, Abiy is one in a million," says Geta.
"He really could be one of the greatest leaders that Africa ever saw."

read more



27-AUG-2018 :: The ZAR gets caught up in the CrossFire. @TheStarKenya
Africa


Robert Swan Mueller III [The Special Counsel and President Trump's
nemesis] has been ''flipping'' all of President Trump's henchmen and
even some of his hatchet-Men and his latest flip is Allen Weisselberg,
the Trump Organization’s Chief Financial Officer .The Book Keeper is a
Keeper of Secrets
Whilst I remain of the view that Trump is a political Harry Houdini
[Harry Houdini (born Erik Weisz, later Ehrich Weiss or Harry Weiss;
March 24, 1874 – October 31, 1926) was a Hungarian-born American
illusionist and stunt performer, noted for his sensational escape
acts], things are indeed thick.
“I have asked Secretary of State @SecPompeo to closely study the South
Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and large scale
killing of farmers.” tweeted Trump.
Senator CORKER characterised Trump's South Africa tweet as "a base stimulator"
President Trump evidently studied the US Army War College Quarterly
1997. The US officer assigned to the Deputy Chief of Staff
(Intelligence), charged with defining the future of warfare, wrote
“One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict
between information masters and information victims.”
This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of
geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be “spawned” - like any
Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. “Hatred, jealousy, and greed -
emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information
warfare] struggles”.
47 farmers were killed in 2017-18, according to statistics from
AgriSA. However the same figures show that farm murders are at a
20-year low. My Point is we exist in a Post-Factual World and
President Trump is the contemporary Politician who has understood
this, intuitively if at times viscerally.
The rand dropped more than 1.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in
early trade on Thursday, before recovering a little. The Rand has been
a Roller-Coaster rallying +20.689% Q4 2017 through April 2018 this
year as everyone imbibed the Ramaphoria Kool-Aid but now has reversed
all its gains and since April has slumped -23.478%. If this goes
fully-fledged and it might well might because it plays like sweet
music to President Trump's base then I think the Rand is at risk of a
precipitous, asymmetric downside move as far as 17.00 to the Dollar.
Traders might consider buying 1 Year Maturity One Touch ZAR Puts with
a 17.00 strike.
I wrote on 13-AUG-2018 :: ''President Trump seems to be relishing his
financial warfare strategies. He has Khamenei on the run, Maduro in
Venezuela is being attacked by remote-controlled drone, Xi suddenly
looks ever so fragile'' Of course he has given President Erdogan a
fearful hiding as well. I reckon Trump has Cyril and Julius for
breakfast and Julius' natural bent is to escalate. Julius Malema, who
has led calls for the seizure of white-owned land, told Trump to keep
out of the debate.
“We want to send a strong message to the U.S. to stay out of South
Africa. You have caused enough problems in Africa,” he told
journalists.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokeswoman said Trump was “misinformed”
Ramaphosa had announced on Aug. 1 that the ruling African National
Congress (ANC) plans to change the constitution to allow the
expropriation of land without compensation.
Steve Hofmeyr, a South African Musician, who is a foremost crusader
for white right-wing causes, – is speaking of a ''white Genocide'' inn
South Africa.
Data from the International Institute of Finance (IIF), an authority
on global portfolio flows, this week showed $800 million (12 billion
rand) bled out of South African bonds from the start of the month up
to Aug. 17, more than any other emerging market, including Turkey.
Between January and June foreign investors sold $2.5 billion worth of
South African bonds, the highest sell-off on record.
Jacob Zuma used to regale Friends with a rendition of  "Bring Me My
Machine Gun."
President Trump the linguistic and financial warfare specialist has
the Machine-Gun and the ZAR is in its line of Fire.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.25% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.1859 [SELL]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8943

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.67% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.12% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Tanzania Seals Mega Gas Deal With Uganda - But Who's Funding It? All Africa
Africa


In what will be the first transborder gas pipeline in East Africa
since Tanzania's extraction of natural gas started in 2004, the two
countries have signed an agreement for the construction of a natural
gas pipeline. It's not clear who's funding the multimillion dollar
deal.

read more





THE @WhiteHouse Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 27, 2018 Joint Statement from President @realDonaldTrump and President @UKenyatta
Kenyan Economy


President Donald J. Trump welcomed President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya
to the White House today.  In marking 55 years of diplomatic relations
between the United States and Kenya, and in recognition of the growing
scope and depth of the engagements between the two countries, the
leaders resolved to elevate the relationship to a Strategic
Partnership, affirming it as a cornerstone of peace, stability and
good governance in Africa and the Indian Ocean region.  This United
States– Kenya Strategic Partnership will include an annual dialogue to
advance mutual prosperity.

President Trump commended the Kenya Defence Forces for their service
and sacrifice in combatting al-Shabaab and ISIS in Somalia.  President
Trump also lauded Kenya for taking a leading role in the East African
fight against terrorism and for its sustained dedication to this
effort.  The leaders reaffirmed and strengthened their commitment to
continued counterterrorism cooperation against violent extremists who
seek to take innocent lives and deny fundamental human rights.  To
further enhance this counterterrorism collaboration, President Trump
welcomed Kenya’s decision to join the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
President Trump also thanked President Kenyatta for his diplomatic
efforts to bring peace to South Sudan and to the region more widely.

The leaders pledged to deepen defense and security cooperation,
building on the recent acquisition of military equipment made in the
United States and committed to further enhance Kenya Defence Forces
capabilities.  Further, the United States pledged to strengthen
Kenya’s national disaster and crisis response capacity.

President Kenyatta thanked President Trump for the United States’
continued support of the Kenyatta administration’s efforts towards
greater accountability, transparency, and institution building.  As
democracies committed to a rules-based international order, the United
States and Kenya share a common vision for free and open societies.
This includes global freedom of navigation, particularly in the
Indo-Pacific region.

The leaders committed to expand their economic cooperation aimed at
making their nations stronger and their citizens more prosperous.  In
this regard, President Trump thanked President Kenyatta for hosting
the United States delegation of the Advisory Council on Doing Business
in Africa.  To further enhance the economic partnership, the two
leaders agreed to establish a United States–Kenya Trade and Investment
Working Group to explore ways to deepen ties between the two
countries.  Further, the Presidents are pleased to announce that their
governments established direct flights between Nairobi and New York
City, a move that will expand the economic and cultural ties between
the two great countries.

Recognizing the importance of high-quality infrastructure, President
Trump and President Kenyatta welcomed the proposal by United States
engineering and construction firm Bechtel Corporation to build a
modern superhighway from Nairobi to Mombasa. Both sides agreed to
undertake further consultations to conclude the terms of the financing
agreement.

This and nearly $900 million in other commercial deals and engagements
announced during the visit are expected to create thousands of
American and Kenyan jobs, further enhancing the prosperity and
economic competitiveness of both nations.

read more


Kenyan Economy


“Well, you were here on a very special day,” Trump told Kenyatta,
adding: “Everything I said is going to happen, it ends up happening,
so you picked a good day to come. We’re in a very good mood.”
Kenyatta said he hoped Trump would share the wealth with his country.
“We’ll bring that over to Kenya,” Trump joked.
Trump also pointed to what he called a “massive roadway”
infrastructure project in Kenya as a sign of the countries’ ties. He
appeared to be referring to the Nairobi-Mombasa Expressway project
that would link Kenya’s capital with its major Indian Ocean port.

The head of the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation met last
month with U.S. construction company Bechtel in Kenya about the
agency’s “ready support” for the project, which is seen by the U.S. as
tool to compete with China’s sweeping Belt and Road Initiative in
Africa and elsewhere.

read more



January 7th 2013 On The Road Nairobi Mombasa
Kenyan Economy


The Nairobi-Mombasa road arrows 'into immensities and is
'impossible-to- believe.' It retains a near mystical hold on my
imagination and connects me to my childhood and beyond.

read more





@imbankke reports H1 2018 EPS +11.705% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           105.00
Total Shares Issued:          413405369.00
Market Capitalization:        43,407,563,745
EPS:             16.47
PE:                 6.375

I&M Holdings Limited H1 2018 results through 30th June 2018 vs. 30th June 2017
H1 Loans and advances to customers 162.823320b vs. 144.546775b +12.6445
H1 Investment securities 46.364957b vs. 50.371550b -7.954%
H1 Deposits from customers 210.897814b vs. 161.526916b +30.565%
H1 Net interest income 6.865763b vs. 6.861291b +0.065%
H1 Net fee and commission income 1.884038b vs. 1.370010b +37.520%
H1 Revenue 8.749801b vs. 8.231301b +6.299%
H1 Operating income 10.472250b vs. 9.566204b +9.471%
H1 Operating expenses [4.161836b] vs. [3.881909b] +7.211%
H1 Operating profit before impairment losses and taxes 6.310414b vs.
5.684295b +11.015%
H1 Profit before income tax 5.398040b vs. 4.964193b +8.740%
H1 Profit for the period 3.868111b vs. 3.430086b +12.770%
Basic and diluted EPS 8.78 vs. 7.86 +11.705%
H1 Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 45.895311b vs.
15.743032b +191.528%

Commentary


1 REPORTING ENTITY
I&M Holdings PLC (the “Company”), is a non-operating holding company
licensed by the Central Bank of Kenya under the Kenyan Banking Act
(Chapter 488). The Company is incorporated in Kenya under the Kenyan
Companies Act and comprises banking subsidiaries in Kenya, Tanzania,
Rwanda and a joint venture in Mauritius. The consolidated financial
statements as at and for the period ended 30 June 2018 comprise of
entities in Kenya – I&M Bank Limited, I&M Capital Limited, I&M Realty
Limited, Giro Limited, I&M Insurance Agency Limiteda and Youjays
Insurance Brokers Limited, I&M Bank (T) Limited in Tanzania, and I&M
Bank (Rwanda) Limited in Rwanda, I&M Burbidge Capital Limited and a
joint venture - Bank One Limited in Mauritius (together referred to as
the “Group”). The address of its registered office is as follows:
I&M Bank House 2nd Ngong Avenue P O Box 30238 00100 Nairobi GPO
Through I&M Bank Limited, the Company has:
(i) 70.38% shareholding in I&M Bank (T) Limited; and
(ii) 100% shareholding in I&M Insurance Agency Limited (incorporated
on 23 July 2014) which owns 100% of Youjays Insurance
Brokers Limited (effective 31 March 2018).
The Company owns the following entities directly:
(i) Bank One Limited - 50% interest in Bank One Limited, a joint
venture in a bank licensed in Mauritius; (ii) I&M Bank LIMITED – 100%
shareholding; and
(iii) I&M Bank (Rwanda) Limited – effective interest of 54.45% in I&M
Bank (Rwanda) Limited through a 68.742% holding in BCR Investment
Company Limited (Mauritius) which owns 79.208% shareholding in I&M
Bank (Rwanda) Limited.
(iv) I&M Capital Limited – 100% Shareholding
(v) I&M Realty Limited – 100% Shareholding
(vi) I&M Burbidge Capital Limited, which owns 100% of I&M Burbidge
Capital Uganda Limited – 65% Shareholding and (vii) Giro Limited
[formerly Giro Commercial Bank Limited] – 100% Shareholding

3 ACQUSITION OF YOUJAYS INSURANCE BROKERS LIMITED (YIB)
On 25 October 2017, I&M Insurance Agency Limited (IMIAL), a wholly
owned subsidiary of I&M Holdings Limited, entered into a Share
Purchase Agreement with the shareholders of Youjays Insurance Brokers
Limited (YIB) to acquire 100% shareholding in YIB. Following the
receipt of all regulatory approvals and the satisfactory completion of
all conditions precedent outlined in the Sale and Purchase Agreement,
IMIAL successfully completed this acquisition on 31 March 2018. The
results of YIB are consolidated in these financials.

Conclusions


Big Growth in Customer Deposits +30.565%
Double digit EPS gains is a net positive outcome.

read more


.@Transcentury reports H1 2018 EPS [1.36] Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           3.45
Total Shares Issued:          280284476.00
Market Capitalization:        966,981,442
EPS:             -10.23
PE:                 -0.337

Trans-Century PLC H1 2018 results through 30th June 2018 vs. 30th June 2017
H1 Turnover 2.283692b vs. 2.993560b -23.713%
H1 Cost of sales [1.658661b] vs. [2.587088b] -35.887%
H1 Gross profit 625.031m vs. 406.472m +53.770%
H1 Net other income 145.037m vs. 18.019m +704.911%
H1 Operating expenses [695.775m] vs. [865.005m] -19.564%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] from operations/ EBITDA 74.293m vs. [440.514m] +116.865%
H1 Depreciation and impairment [314.714m] vs. [330.215m] +4.694%
H1 Net finance costs [444.404m] vs. [504.756m] -11.957%
H1 Loss before income tax [684.825m] vs. [1.275485b] -46.309%
H1 Loss for the period [684.825m] vs. [1.040332b] -34.172%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.36] vs. [2.88] -52.778%
Total Equity [784.069m]
Cash and cash equivalents at 30th June 101.967m

Company Commentary


Gross profit margin improvement from 14% in 2017 to 27% in the period
under review.
20% reduction in operating costs saving 169m
74m EBITDA compared to a loss of 441m reported in a similar period last year
217m positive cash flow
strong financial position at Company level with Equity valued at 8,940 million.
Group set to revise the benefits of the pent up value in the order book

Conclusions


appears to have based out now.

read more




Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.08% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -12.19% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Based on un-audited half year financial results, @SanlamKenya issues a profits-warning for the period to 31st Dec 2018 @RichFrontiers
Kenyan Economy


Based on un-audited half year financial results, @SanlamKenya issues a
profits-warning for the period to 31st Dec 2018. Main reasons are
impaired corporate bonds on distressed enterprises and interest rate
cap effects on investment returns. |

read more


@SanlamKenya share price data here -13.51% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           24.00
Total Shares Issued:          144000000.00
Market Capitalization:        3,456,000,000
EPS:             0.21
PE:                 114.286

Sanlam Kenya PLC FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st
December 2016
FY Gross written premium income 6.369847b vs. 5.224546b +21.922%
FY Profit before tax 246.958m vs. 317.053m -22.108%
FY Profit for the year after tax 53.045m vs. 70.623m -24.890%
FY Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent 30.814m vs.
90.252m -65.858%
EPS (Basic & diluted) 0.21 vs. 0.63 -66.667%

read more


Kenya Orchards reports H1 2018 EPS -11.111% Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           82.00
Total Shares Issued:          12868124.00
Market Capitalization:        1,055,186,168
EPS:             0.44
PE:                 186.364

Kenya Orchards Limited H1 2018 results through 30th June 2018 vs. 30th June 2017
H1 Revenue 34.217321m vs. 32.235979m +6.146%
H1 Cost of sales [29.977790m] vs. [29.029105m] +3.268%
H1 Gross profit 4.239531m vs. 3.206874m +32.201%
H1 Administrative expenses [1.736807m] vs. [0.186847m] +829.534%
H1 Selling and distribution expenses [0.823431m] vs. [1.024082m] -19.593%
H1 PBT 1.428032m vs. 1.722464m -17.094%
H1 Profit and total comprehensive income for the year 0.999622m vs.
1.205725m -20.093%
EPS 0.08 vs. 0.09 -11.111%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [4.743669m] vs.
[1.045508m] -353.719%
Shareholders’ funds 16.357931m vs. 10.939385m +49.532%

read more


Kurwitu Ventures Ltd reports H1 2018 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           1500.00
Total Shares Issued:          102271.00
Market Capitalization:        153,406,500
EPS:             -106
PE:                 -14.151

Kurwitu Ventures Limited H1 2018 results through 30th June 2018
H1 Revenue 4.856481m
H1 Cost of goods sold [4.414978m]
H1 Gross profit 0.441503m
H1 Total expenses [6.143975m]
H1 Operating loss before taxation [5.702472m]
H1 Loss for the period [3.991730m]
Basic loss per share [39]
Diluted loss per share [27]
Total equity 61.993311m
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 9.077067m



read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Mexican Pres. Enrique Peña Nieto told Pres. Trump he wants to
celebrate new trade understanding with U.S.—"to toast a good toast,
with tequila, of course."
The Mexican Peso is the best performing EM currency in 2018.
The NASDAQ closed at a record and has risen from 1400 [at the time of
the Dot-Com Crash] to over 8000 in less than 10 years!
"The king is obsessed with the idea of how history will judge him.
Will he be the king who sold @Saudi_Aramco who sold Palestine?" the
second source said to Reuters
King Salman has nixed the Saudi Aramco IPO
Tesla Investors are throwing in the Towel.
Prime Minister Theresa May is visiting South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya
this week.
Travelling with her on the first UK prime ministerial trip to
sub-Saharan Africa for five years is an entourage of 29 business
leaders including Bill Winters, the chief executive of Standard
Chartered, and LSE head David Schwimmer. FT
There is also realism about the size of the continent’s economies. The
three countries that Mrs May is visiting may well be Africa’s
powerhouses, but the combined nominal GDP of Kenya, Nigeria and South
Africa barely matches the Netherlands.
“By 2022, I want the U.K. to be the G7’s number one investor in
Africa, with Britain’s private sector companies taking the lead in
investing the billions that will see African economies growing by
trillions,” May will say. “It is the private sector that is the key to
driving that growth -- transforming labor markets, opening up
opportunity and unleashing entrepreneurial spirit. And the U.K. has
the companies that can invest in and trade with Africa to do just
this.”
United Nations figures put annual U.K. investment in the continent at
$55 billion -- ahead of France’s $49 billion and second to the U.S. on
$57 billion
Theresa May actually stopped in Cape town first and that made my Mind
loop back to  another Speech which was delivered to the Parliament in
Cape Town but that speech was delivered on February 3rd 1960 and by a
British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan who said
''The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we
like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political
fact'' [Looking at events unfold over the Border those remarks appear
prescient]
Zambia which is resolutely avoiding dialling up the IMF's Madam
Lagarde and its Eurobonds have lost 10 percent this month, more than
any of the 75 countries in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD
Sovereign Bond Index. That’s extended their decline to 23 percent this
year and sent spreads over U.S. Treasuries soaring to more than 1,000
basis points.
S&P Global Ratings cut the foreign-currency rating to B-, six steps
into junk territory, last week. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its
assessment to Caa1 shortly before that.
Yields on Zambia’s $1 billion of notes maturing in 2024 fell 1 basis
point to 13.86 percent on Monday, though they’re still up about 740
basis points in 2018.
StanBic Holdings' Jibran Qureishi released a report headlined ''Africa
Flash Note: Kenya: Removing the floor and leaving the cap; going
through the motions''
A removal of the deposit floor while leaving the cap in place would
probably not amount to a ‘substantial’ amendment of the rate cap law,
a requirement for renewal of the Stand-By facility. The odds of a new
facility are quite slim and the market may pay more attention to this.
Whereas, Kenya doesn’t face a balance of payments crisis at present,
the credibility that is attached to an @IMFNews approval or
acknowledgment should not be discounted. The 6-m extension for the
@IMFNews facility expires on 14 Sep. Already certain authorities and
policymakers have downplayed the importance of the funding due to the
BOP position. Already certain authorities and policymakers have
downplayed the importance of the funding due to the BOP position.
However, the point that we are trying to make is that it’s never been
about the money but about the @IMFNews ’s seal of approval.
@FLOTUS Melania and I were honored to welcome the President of the
Republic of Kenya, @UKenyatta and Mrs. Margaret Kenyatta to the
@WhiteHouse today! tweeted President Trump.
“Well, you were here on a very special day,” Trump told Kenyatta,
adding: “Everything I said is going to happen, it ends up happening,
so you picked a good day to come. We’re in a very good mood.”
Kenyatta said he hoped Trump would share the wealth with his country.
“We’ll bring that over to Kenya,” Trump joked.
President Trump and President Kenyatta obviously had good chemistry
and I said previously circumstances have created a unique political
opening for President Kenyatta to present himself as Africa's
Interlocutor to the Trump White House.
The @WhiteHouse Office of the Press Secretary released a Joint
Statement from President Trump and President Kenyatta which said
'' the leaders resolved to elevate the relationship to a Strategic Partnership''
President Kenyatta thanked President Trump and said
''As democracies committed to a rules-based international order, the
United States and Kenya share a common vision for free and open
societies. This includes global freedom of navigation, particularly in
the Indo-Pacific region''
''Recognizing the importance of high-quality infrastructure, President
Trump and President Kenyatta welcomed the proposal by United States
engineering and construction firm Bechtel Corporation to build a
modern superhighway from Nairobi to Mombasa. Both sides agreed to
undertake further consultations to conclude the terms of the financing
agreement.''
The Nairobi Securities Exchange All Share rebounded +1.85 points to
close at 173.18 lifted by Safaricom.
The NSE20 eased 6.28 points.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +2.588% to close at 29.75 and traded 4.929m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


I&M Holdings reported an +11.705% acceleration in H1 2018 Earnings Per
Share, a +12.6445% increase in its Customer Loan Book from 144.54b to
162.82b a +6.299% H1 2018 Revenue Gain which clocked 8.749b, and a
+12.77% acceleration in H1 2018 Profit After Tax. Customer deposits
surged an eye-popping +30.565%. I&M Holdings eased a shilling to close
at 104.00 and is -18.11% in 2018.
Equity Group eased 25cents to close at 49.25 and 3.913m shares.

Sanlam Kenya corrected -5.208% to close at 22.75 the day after issuing
a Profits Warning. The Profits warning was issued on the basis of
known impairments of Financial Instruments. They have either taken a
hit because of Imperial Bank or via the Commercial Paper Market.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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