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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 09th of August 2018

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

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@FT reports that the Saudi central bank and state pension funds have instructed their overseas asset managers to dispose "no matter the cost."

.@FT reports that the Saudi central bank and state pension funds have
instructed their overseas asset managers to dispose of their Canadian
equities, bonds and cash holdings “no matter the cost.”

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[The End of] Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successful.

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#Head_and_Shoulders @PeterLBrandt 6,350.00 Last

1. A 6-week H&S was valid, but too brief to promise a major trend change
2. Target of 8030 was met -- at that point the H&S became irrelevant
3. Factor members -- note 3DTSR Aug 1-3. That nullified the H&S.

Home Thoughts

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Crazy Horse @David_Yarrow

This photograph is very much made in Montana and has been received
well by many of my friends in the state. Equally, however, I think it
should appeal to all those that find a visceral pull towards The Wild

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JPMorgan says Trump may sell dollars as weapon in U.S. trade war
Law & Politics


He should let the $ strengthen and have the Rest of the World bow to him.

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The U.S. has announced new sanctions on Russia that punish President Vladimir Putin's government for the March 4 nerve-agent attack in the U.K @business
Law & Politics

The U.S. announced new sanctions on Russia Wednesday that punish
President Vladimir Putin’s government for the March 4 nerve-agent
attack on former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the

The sanctions are required under the 1991 Chemical and Biological
Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act, which mandates punishment
of countries that use chemical weapons in violation of international
law. State Department officials said they expect them to take effect
Aug. 22.

The sanctions, welcomed by the U.K., added to pressure on the ruble
that began earlier in the day, when Russian media published the full
text of a separate bill proposed by U.S. lawmakers that seeks
“crushing sanctions” for election interference. The currency sank to
its lowest level since November 2016.


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Is Xi Jinping's bold China power grab starting to backfire?
Law & Politics

A few months ago, Xi Jinping seemed unstoppable. He’d just abolished
presidential term limits and announced the most sweeping government
overhaul in decades. Having hosted Donald Trump for a successful visit
in November, Xi seemed to have prevented a trade war with the U.S.
Party propagandists were distributing hagiographic accounts of the
newly anointed leader for life.
Today, China’s president looks like he may have overreached. An
economic slowdown, a tanking stock market, and an infant-vaccine
scandal are all feeding domestic discontent, while abroad, in Western
capitals and financial centers, there’s a growing wariness of Chinese
ambitions. And then there is the escalating trade war with the U.S.
China initially refused to believe it would happen, but in the past
few weeks it’s become the prism through which Xi’s perceived failings
are best projected.
China watchers say studying the workings of the Communist Party is
like trying to review a play by watching only the audience’s reaction.
By that gauge, signs of upheaval are reverberating around Beijing
during what is fast becoming Xi’s summer of discontent: articles from
prominent academics and pundits questioning his overall policy
direction; an embarrassing rebuke of his top economic adviser by
Trump; and a rare public spat over policy between the central bank and
Ministry of Finance. All point to a newfound sense of self-doubt
creeping into a country whose relentless march to becoming a global
superpower had seemed unstoppable. “The trade war has made China more
humble,” says Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at
Renmin University in Beijing and deputy director of the institution’s
“Xi Jinping Thought” center. “We should keep a low profile,” he says,
even suggesting that China should rethink how it implements Xi’s
flagship “Belt and Road” infrastructure project.
In May, entering trade negotiations with the U.S., China projected
swagger and self-confidence. Xi dispatched Liu He, his top economic
adviser, to the U.S. with the official designation of his “personal
envoy.” Liu returned to proclaim victory: There would be no trade war,
he said in nationally televised interviews. Then came the shock. Trump
imposed $50 billion in tariffs on China. That’s since escalated to a
threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese
goods, prompting the country to warn the U.S. against “blackmailing”
it over trade. Meanwhile, a slowing economy makes China more
vulnerable to damage from a trade war, which economists predict could
cut as much as half a percentage point from growth.
Chinese academics, economists, and some officials have begun to
question whether the leadership could have done more to avoid the
confrontation. As carefully worded essays circulate on the WeChat
forum, the grumbling has begun to echo around the halls of government.
One Finance Ministry official says China made a “major misjudgment” of
Trump’s determination to confront the country. Others wonder if China
underestimated the durability of American power. “The U.S. will use
its hegemonic system, established since World War II from trade,
finance, currency, military, and so on, to stop the rise of China,”
Ren Zeping, chief economist at China Evergrande Group, wrote in one
widely read commentary published on June 5.

“Rising anxiety has spread into a degree of panic throughout the country”
As officials and scholars look around the world, they see widespread
skepticism of Chinese ambition, particularly in Western capitals whose
governments are taking measures to limit China’s ability to buy
strategic assets. If this is China’s moment, officials ask, how is it
the new superpower seems so alone? “There was a broad-based consensus
building that China’s behavior was predatory and needed to be
stopped,” says Jude Blanchette, who analyses Chinese politics at
Crumpton Group LLC, an international advisory and business development
firm in Arlington, Va. “The casting off of term limits was a match on
that gasoline and has acted as an accelerant for pushback in the U.S.”

Domestic criticisms have intensified, too. “People across the nation,
including the entire bureaucratic elite, feel increasing uncertainty
about the direction of the country and a deep sense of personal
insecurity,” wrote Xu Zhangrun, a law professor at Tsinghua University
in Beijing, in a July 24 essay on the website of the Unirule Institute
of Economics, a Chinese think tank. “Rising anxiety has spread into a
degree of panic throughout the country.”
Domestic policy dust-ups, from fresh outrage against failed
peer-to-peer lending services to a rushed  transition from coal that
left millions of villagers without heat, are beginning to look like
the inevitable outcome of a system where decision-makers are isolated
from facts on the ground. Some began to look back nostalgically to a
time when keeping a low profile was seen as a key part of making China
great again.

Still, there is a sense in which the last month has felt like the end
of the beginning for Xi Jinping. “There is suddenly a burst of open
discussion and criticism, and it’s very dramatic compared with what
we’re used to under Xi,” says Cohen. “People below think there’s more
room to push back.”

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Californians Puzzled by @realDonaldTrump's Failure to Blame Wildfires on @HillaryClinton @BorowitzReport
Law & Politics

“Maybe he’s really distracted by all this Russia stuff and he’s off his game.”

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Oppressing Uighurs isn't the way to build the Belt and Road via @bopinion
Law & Politics

Nobody pretends the People’s Republic of China is an entirely benign
power, least of all its leaders in Beijing. Yet, even by the standards
of what continues to be a remarkably repressive state, the stories
that are emerging from behind the Great Firewall about the crackdown
on Xinjiang’s Uighur Muslim population are deeply disturbing and
deserve more of the world’s attention.

The one country on earth which should best understand the danger and
futility of such efforts has reportedly set up “reeducation centres”
across the length and breadth of its largest province, where political
prisoners are instructed to repeat mantras about the greatness of the
Chinese state and of President Xi Jinping. They write self-criticisms
late into the night. Observant Muslims are forced to drink alcohol.

Persistent dissenters are allegedly subject to torture, including in a
terrifying device known as a “tiger chair.” One recent academic study
warns that anything between several hundred thousand and over a
million residents of Xinjiang may have been sent to the camps. The
Chinese government has repeatedly denied the existence of any
reeducation camps, saying that the people of Xinjiang "live and work
in peace and enjoy development and tranquillity.” It has also argued
in the past that the “tiger chair” is “padded for comfort.”

Now, you could be outraged by these stories and demand, as some
countries have done, that Chinese leaders respect the human rights of
all their citizens. But fewer and fewer governments want to take the
risk of offending China. And, after all, more than half the people of
Xinjiang are Muslims – and who today would really go out on a limb and
speak out against the “reeducation” of faithful Muslims? So in
Xinjiang, as in Tibet, the world is likely to give China a pass.

But there’s another question that Chinese leaders, and the rest of us,
should be asking. And that is: What does this repression mean for
China’s ambitions in Central Asia and beyond?

After all, Xinjiang may today be a distant border province. But it
occupies a very different position on the map of the world as Xi would
remake it. The Silk Roads of the past went through what is now
Xinjiang and, if the Belt and Road Initiative ever takes off, it is
Xinjiang that will be its hub and heart. The province is intended to
connect Central Asia, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Siberia
to the densely industrialized Chinese heartland.

Uighurs are now largely forbidden to travel abroad – and even those
who leave the province for other parts of China are suspect. Visa
requirements for visitors from places like Pakistan have been
tightened. Fewer will visit; others have found that wives and children
across the border have vanished into camps.

Perhaps China imagines instead that continued mass settlement of the
province by ethnically Han Chinese migrants from elsewhere in the
country will solve the problem. The government has, after all, ensured
that the province’s residency rules are the most liberal in China. But
that will merely create a social tinderbox that no “smart” police
state, such as is being piloted in Xinjiang’s cities, can truly

It’s not yet too late for China to realize its errors and to seek
reconciliation with Xinjiang’s Uighurs. If the land-based economic
corridors of Xi’s imagination are to become a reality, then China will
need to build a peaceful and secure Xinjiang that’s integrated
effectively with its neighbors. A police state full of brutal
reeducation camps will merely provoke a terrifying backlash – and the
Belt and Road will be among the casualties.


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#GBPUSD cementing the move under 1.2900 @forexflowlive 1.2876 Last
International Trade

With 1.29 gone we're seeing a further push south and the pound moves
further out of favour. I'm still not really interested in it until it
gets under 1.2800.

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I have never seen this level of disregard for Securities Laws and blatant price manipulation Re @Tesla and @Elonmusk @Wheels88Fortune
International Trade

In almost 30 years in the public markets, including as an Exec for a
NYSE public co that was taken private in a large LBO, I have never
seen this level of disregard for Securities Laws and blatant price

$TSLA @SEC_Enforcement @Tesla @elonmusk @SEC_Investor_Ed

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1604
Dollar Index 95.07
Japan Yen 110.964
Swiss Franc 0.9929
Pound 1.2878
Aussie 0.7438
India Rupee 68.545
South Korea Won 1117.05
Brazil Real 3.7716
Egypt Pound 17.8675
South Africa Rand 13.3829

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CL update ..nice @chigrl 66.57 [Big down move yesterday]

“Oil had been largely immune from the escalating trade dispute,
however the recent application of tariffs by China on U.S. petroleum
products does represent a step change for the energy market,” said
Daniel Hynes, a Sydney-based analyst at Australia & New Zealand
Banking Group Ltd. “It’s clearly worrying investors at the moment.”

West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery traded at $66.87
a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 7 cents, at 10:42
a.m. in Tokyo. The contract declined $2.23 to $66.94 on Wednesday, the
lowest close since June 21. Total volume traded was about 51 percent
below the 100-day average.

Brent for October settlement traded at $72.40 a barrel on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices dropped $2.37 to
settle at $72.28 on Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a
$6.20 premium to WTI for the same month.

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Here's what you need to know ahead of India's upcoming general election
Emerging Markets

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reason to feel less confident
about the coming general election than he once did. His popularity has
suffered as a result of a sharp economic slowdown last year that his
government helped engineer with a chaotically implemented sales tax
and the sudden withdrawal of most bank notes. Corruption scandals at
state-owned banks haven’t helped, while the low oil prices that once
gave Modi a degree of budget leeway are a thing of the past, hammering
India’s currency, stoking inflation and worsening the country’s
finances. The opposition, in disarray since Modi’s resounding victory
in 2014, is also beginning to unite. Despite all that, polls suggest
the ruling coalition is likely to win the most seats in the election.

1. When exactly is the election?

Probably the first quarter of 2019, since the next government must be
in place by mid-May and voting occurs over the course of several
weeks. That’s down to the daunting logistics of overseeing the world’s
largest electorate: more than 800 million voters stretching from the
remote Himalayas in the north to the tropical jungles of the south.
There’s some speculation Modi might call the election sooner, perhaps
by December.

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India's economy is an elephant that's starting to run, IMF says
Emerging Markets

India is on track to hold its position as one of the world’s
fastest-growing economies as reforms start to pay off, according to
the International Monetary Fund.

The $2.6 trillion economy was described by Ranil Salgado, the IMF’s
mission chief for India, as an elephant starting to run, with growth
forecast at 7.3 percent in the fiscal year through March 2019 and 7.5
percent in the year after that. The nation accounts for about 15
percent of global growth, according to the Washington-based fund.

Key risks flagged by the IMF in its annual Article IV assessment of
the economy include higher oil prices, tightening global financial
conditions and tax revenue shortfalls. Authorities should take
advantage of stronger growth to bring down debt levels, simplify the
consumption tax system and continue to gradually tighten monetary
policy, it said.

After a shock cash ban in late 2016 and a disruptive nationwide sales
tax last year, India’s economy is once again gaining momentum. Growth
reached the fastest pace in seven quarters in January through March,
and high frequency indicators from purchasing managers’ surveys to
auto sales data show the economy is likely to grow above 7 percent.

India is projected to grow at the fastest pace in three years in FY19

Risks are mounting though. The rupee has plunged 7 percent against the
dollar this year, the worst performer among major Asian currencies,
threatening the inflation outlook. The Reserve Bank of India delivered
its second straight interest rate hike last week as policy makers seek
to maintain economic stability against a global backdrop of trade
tensions and high oil prices.

Frontier Markets

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Congo coalition rules out President Kabila re-election bid

“The conclusion of consultations under President Joseph Kabila
Kabange, the moral authority of the Common Front for Congo, has
resulted in a name, the rare bird who will represent our political
family in the presidential election,” government spokesman Lambert
Mende told reporters in the capital, Kinshasa, on Wednesday. “It will
be Comrade Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.”

Shadary, 57, is the permanent secretary of Kabila’s People’s Party for
Reconstruction and Democracy and a former interior minister. He’s also
one of nine Congolese sanctioned last year by the European Union,
which accused them of undermining democracy and abusing human rights.

Kabila, in power since 2001, had been consulting with his Common Front
for Congo coalition, or FCC, since late July and its choice of
candidate was a closely guarded secret. The president’s decision not
to compete in the vote will assuage international actors such as the
U.S., United Nations and African Union, which had opposed his
candidacy. Congo’s major opposition groups had also demanded that
Kabila not participate.

Kabila being ruled out as a candidate is a “crucial first step” toward
ensuring a credible electoral process in Congo, Ida Sawyer, deputy
Africa director at Human Rights Watch, said in an emailed statement.

“Ramazani himself has been sanctioned by the European Union and has
played a key role in government repression over the past several
years,” she said. “Tough pressure from Congo’s regional and
international partners must continue for the country to see a truly
democratic transition and to prevent more repression and bloodshed in
the months ahead.”

Congo’s presidential and parliamentary elections are set to take place
on Dec. 23. They were initially supposed to be held in late 2016, but
were postponed when the electoral commission’s failed to organize

Kabila was elected in two previous elections and adversaries claim
that he himself was the main obstacle to timely polls as he was
reluctant to give up power. The president’s refusal to exclude himself
from the next election until the last minute fueled speculation he’d
seek another term.

Kabila’s initial choice to retain the presidency beyond the end of his
second term, which expired in December 2016, sparked sporadic protests
in which security forces killed dozens of people. Congo hasn’t had a
peaceful transfer of power since independence from Belgium in 1960.

So far, three major opposition leaders -- Jean-Pierre Bemba, Vital
Kamerhe and Felix Tshisekedi -- have registered to compete in the
presidential election. Another, Moise Katumbi, says Kabila is
preventing him from returning to Congo and filing his papers.

The four men have said they may unite behind a single opposition candidate.


Kabila will get to leave with his SWAG?

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Congo: Ramazani Shadary is the ruling party's candidate for elections in December.

Last year in May, the EU sanctioned him because of his involvement "in
planning, directing, or committing acts that constitute serious human
rights violations in DRC."

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Zimbabwe needs help, but first must help itself @business

Mugabe's exit provides, even now, a real opportunity. For all its
defects, this election was a significant improvement over previous
contests. Over the long run, giving Zimbabweans a greater stake in
their economic future will raise their expectations, increase their
power at the ballot box, and improve their chances for a future as
rich as the land they inhabit.

Outsiders can help, but they should tell Mnangagwa to lead the way.

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Zimbabwe's renewal hopes dashed as vote dispute sparks mayhem @business

Veritas, a Harare-based legal rights group.

“Will everyone be able to see that the elections have been verifiably
conducted according to the constitution so that the outcome is
acceptable to all?” it said in a statement. “Regrettably no, because
the ZEC has shown so little transparency that there cannot be
sufficient criteria for verifiability.”

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Tendai Biti, one of the principals of the opposition MDC Alliance, has been arrested near Chirundu border post.

Tendai Biti, one of the principals of the opposition MDC Alliance,
has been arrested near Chirundu border post. According to his lawyer
Nqobizitha Mlilo, he was arrested on Zambian soil, where he intended
to seek political asylum.

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About 300 Zimbabwean travellers blocked their government's security officers from arresting prominent opposition politician @BitiTendai at the border with Zambia @BBC

About 300 Zimbabwean travellers blocked their government's security
officers from arresting prominent opposition politician Tendai Biti at
the border with Zambia, according to a document circulating on social
media that appears to have been drafted by Zambia's Criminal
Investigation Department (CID).

The document states that Zambian officials then intervened and
threatened to arrest the Zimbabwean officers for "executing their
mandate on Zambian soil".

A team of Zambian paratroopers, armed with AK-47 rifles, later arrived
at the Chirundu border post and took Mr Biti away, the document says.

Zambia's Foreign Minister Joe Malanji told the BBC Mr Biti's asylum
request has been turned down.

Mr Biti fled to Zambia after Zimbabwean police issued an arrest
warrant for him, accusing him of "unlawfully" announcing that his
party's leader, Nelson Chamisa, defeated President Emmerson Mnangagwa
in last Monday's presidential election.

He is also accused of inciting the violence last Wednesday when MDC
Alliance supporters clashed with security forces, leaving six people

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MTN slumps on return of Iran troubles and surge in net debt

MTN Group Ltd. warned that renewed U.S.-led economic sanctions against
Iran had once again tied up funds in its second-biggest market,
scuppering plans to turn the country into a cash cow after years of

The South African company repatriated almost $1 billion from the
country in 2017 after the lifting of a previous round of restrictions,
and had embarked on a $750 million plan to extend fiber-to-home
broadband connections to the country’s cities. That project is now on
hold, and the difficulties taking out cash have returned.

“We have discounted any cash flows from Iran for the next three
years,” Chief Financial Officer Ralph Mupita said at a presentation in
Johannesburg on Wednesday. The company had 44.5 million customers in
the country at the end of 2017, compared with more than 223 million
across all its 22 markets.

MTN shares slumped 7.1 percent to 105.99 rand as of 3:14 p.m. in
Johannesburg, the most in more than a year, extending a decline for
the year to 22 percent.

Of further concern was net debt, which the company said in a statement
increased to 69.8 billion rand ($5.2 billion) as of the end of June,
compared with 57.1 billion rand at the end of 2017. That was partly
caused by a higher final dividend paid last year, although that will
be lower in 2018 in line with a new policy outlined in March.

“The debt levels are high,” Peter Takaendesa, an analyst at Mergence
Investment Managers, said by phone from Cape Town. “I hope they will
address that with the 260 million euros ($302 million) they made from
Cyprus,” he added, referring to the recent disposal of MTN’s smallest

Proceeds from the Cyprus sale would indeed be used to reduce debt, as
well as cash raised from the initial public offering of the Ghana
unit, Chief Executive Officer Rob Shuter said by phone.

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Trading volumes dwindle on Africa's biggest bourse as South Africa's policy risks mount

Trading volumes on Africa’s biggest stock exchange have dwindled amid
uncertainty about the ruling party’s policies on land and mining ahead
of elections set for next year.

The average daily volume of shares traded on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange in the past month fell to 247 million on Wednesday, from as
high as 408 million in January, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. On Monday, only 151 million shares changed hands, the
lowest number since Jan. 2, when South Africa was in the midst of
annual summer holidays.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.3829

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.08% 2018

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.09% 2018

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Bob is On Fire!! H/T @kenyanwalstreet
Kenyan Economy

.@SafaricomPLC rallied +1.7699% to close at 28.75 and traded 6.592m
shares in a celebration around the return of its CEO @bobcollymore
Esquire. @NSE_PLC

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Foreigners snap up NSE firms on caps removal @dailynation
Kenyan Economy

Foreign investors have taken advantage of the removal of caps on
shareholding for overseas investors to increase the foreign stake
beyond the pre-2016 legal maximum of 75 per cent.

Data compiled by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) shows BOC Kenya,
Stanbic Holdings, Scangroup and Standard Chartered Bank #ticker:SCBK
have all seen an increase in the stake held by foreigners beyond the
75 per cent former cap as at the end of last month compared to June

Other companies that previously breached the 75 per cent limit,
including Total Kenya and British American Tobacco #ticker:BAT, are
now not required to make any changes in shareholding. This is unlike
in 2015 when the CMA committed to make a closer scrutiny of
shareholding in listed companies in a bid to keep the foreign stake at
no more than the then legal maximum of 75 per cent.

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N.S.E Today

The FT reported that the Saudi central bank and state pension funds
have instructed their overseas asset managers to dispose [of Canadian
Assets] “no matter the cost.” this follows the Tweet from Canada's FM
which inflamed the Saudis
''Canada is gravely concerned about additional arrests of civil
society and women’s rights activists in #SaudiArabia, including Samar
Badawi @CanadaFP''
The Turkish Lira slumped 3% to a fresh record Low and There will be
only one Winner in this Battle and is not President Erdogan.
"Digital assets have now lost about $600 billion since crypto-mania
peaked in January, more than the market value of all but the four
biggest companies in the S&P 500 Index."
“The conclusion of consultations under President Joseph Kabila
Kabange, the moral authority of the Common Front for Congo, has
resulted in a name, the rare bird who will represent our political
family in the presidential election,” government spokesman Lambert
Mende told reporters in the capital, Kinshasa, on Wednesday. “It will
be Comrade Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.”
President Kabila looks as if he will exit with his Life and SWAG
intact which is a Trend change in matters DR Congo.
The @ODPP_KE has been baring its Fangs
The Nairobi All Share pushed +0.37 points higher.
Equity turnover was slow with little on the offer side and clocked just 288.29m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.75 and traded 3.037m shares worth
87.692m. Safaricom is +7.47% in 2018 and Investors are anticipating a
juicy dividend of 1 shilling and 10 cents which will lift Total
Returns to +11.588%.

Uchumi followed on its +10% Gain from the previous session to close
+3.03% at 1.70. Uchumi traded 3,900 shares which was about all there
was available for sale.

Standard Group was high ticked +9.82% to close at 30.75 on the grand
total of 100 shares of trading.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB Group firmed +0.50% to close at 50.00 at a 12 week closing High.
KCB traded 1.427m shares.
Equity Group firmed +0.99% to close at 51.00 which is a 12 week high.
Equity was trading at session highs of 52.00 +2.97% at the closing

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenGen closed unchanged at 6.60 after the previous sessions steep bounce.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2018

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