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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 19th of January 2018
 
Morning,
Africa

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U.S. Treasury 10-year yield rises to its highest level since 2016 @business
Africa


The yield climbed to as high as 2.6367 percent. The next level to
watch is the 2016-high of 2.6394 percent, which was last exceeded in
2014.

read more


12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
Africa


A lot of risk calculations are based on Value at Risk (VAR).
Essentially, you overlay a volatility measure over the portfolio, and
you calculate how much money is on the line. Central banks have
suppressed volatility therefore in real terms; investors are now
holding bigger positions at these current artificially suppressed
levels. If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en
masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the
Eagles Hotel California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

Home Thoughts

read more




"We're waiting for a glance or a word, some acknowledgement that we are here." - Jeet Thayil, Necropolis
Africa


“The world is on fire; time is a bomb.
Ten thousand years are not enough
When so much remains to be done”
― Jeet Thayil, Necropolis

read more


On the road @lewa_wildlife @SirikoiLodge
Africa


“Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road”
― Jack Kerouac @lewa_wildlife @SirikoiLodge

read more




Yansong designed a 60 metre curving hall, which Eliasson filled with a fluorescent light spectrum and shimmering fog that visitors tread their uncertain way through @saatchi_gallery
Africa


Olafur Eliasson and Ma Yansong collaborated on 2010's otherworldly
installation 'Feelings are Facts' at UCCA. Yansong designed a 60 metre
curving hall, which Eliasson filled with a fluorescent light spectrum
and shimmering fog that visitors tread their uncertain way through.

read more



The Destabilizer: Trump's Escalating Threats Against Iran Patrick Cockburn
Law & Politics


 “The escalating American threats against Iran mean that the Iranians
will be more vigorous in safeguarding their position in Iraq and
Syria,” said a former Iraqi minister who did not want his name
published.

He warned that senior US officials, particularly those with a military
background, “will do everything short of war against Iran”. They had
convinced themselves that Iran’s clerical government was weaker than
was really the case. “They believe that they just have to kick the
system and it will collapse,” he said. This wishful thinking has been
encouraged by the protests that have broken out in Iranian cities
since 28 December.

 “The Iranians are under the impression that others want to topple
them and this is understandable,” the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi told The Independent in an interview in Baghdad last October.
“To protect themselves they have to fight outside their borders.” They
generally do this through the use of proxies and skilful manipulation
of local forces.

 If Mr Trump does succeed in capsizing the Iran nuclear deal, the US
may soon regret reigniting a series of conflicts likely to end badly
for them.

Conclusions

The Iran Deal was Obama's signature Foreign Policy Achievement. That
of itself makes it untenable in Trump's calculus

read more


28-OCT-2013 @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Two Husseins #IranTalksVienna
Law & Politics


THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of
Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi
and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein
Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet
Muhammed’s revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of
anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably
view this as very fortuitous.

I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year
and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:

What’s in a name?

A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of
interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests
fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle
East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg,
then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool.
Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama’s Iranian
rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly
forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.

read more


@Aiww What's in a Name?
Law & Politics


A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

read more






Sales of Trump properties suggestive of money-laundering: researcher Reuters
Law & Politics


Testimony to the U.S. Congress by the head of a political research
firm indicates that the Trump Organization’s sales of properties to
Russian nationals may have involved money-laundering, the top Democrat
on the House Intelligence Committee said on Thursday.

The panel released the transcript of a Nov. 14 closed-door interview
with Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson, whose firm hired a former
British spy to research then-presidential candidate Donald Trump’s
campaign ties to Russians and produced a dossier.

“Those transcripts reveal serious allegations that the Trump
Organization may have engaged in money laundering with Russian
nationals,” Representative Adam Schiff said.

In his testimony, Simpson said that his firm closely examined sales of
condominiums in Trump properties in New York, Miami, Panama City and
Toronto.

“There were a lot of real estate deals where you couldn’t really tell
who was buying the property,” Simpson said. “And sometimes properties
would be bought and sold, and they would be bought for one price and
sold for a loss shortly thereafter, and it really didn’t make sense to
us.”

“We saw patterns of buying and selling that we thought were suggestive
of money-laundering,” he continued.

read more









Sodium Sun 142+ Reykjavik, Iceland
Law & Politics


After the financial crisis, a large amount of planned infrastructure
was left dormant. This parking lot for the Bauhaus home improvement
store was left vacant, but lit by streetlights for several years
before the store was finally opened. I was puzzled by why they would
waste the energy lighting this massive parking lot for years when the
store was shuttered. I was told that it improved security

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2261
Dollar Index 90.38
Japan Yen 110.87
Swiss Franc 0.9569
Pound 1.3917
Aussie 0.8010
India Rupee 63.655
South Korea Won 1065.46
Brazil Real 3.2067
Egypt Pound 17.7175
South Africa Rand 12.1043

read more








27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies


My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was
going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my
wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined.
Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a
journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty
and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of
smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
“Wow! What a Ride!”

Commodities

read more





Oil prices fall over 1 percent on recovery in U.S. output
Commodities


Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $68.46 at 0259 GMT, down 85 cents,
or 1.2 percent, from their last close. On Monday, they hit their
highest since December, 2014 at $70.37 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $63.02 a
barrel, down 93 cents, or 1.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI
marked a December-2014 peak of $64.89 a barrel on Tuesday.

Traders said the lower prices were prompted by a recovery in U.S. oil
production after a recent drop, as well as by an expected fall in
demand when winter ends in the northern hemisphere.

U.S. crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA stood at 9.75 million barrels
per day (bpd) on Jan. 12, data from the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) showed.

Output had fallen to 9.49 million barrels at the start of the year,
due largely to a cold snap that shut down some production.

Most analysts expect U.S. output to break through 10 million barrels
per day soon.

read more





Venezuelan Hyperinflation Explodes, Soaring Over 440,000 Percent
Emerging Markets


The price of a cup of coffee in Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index has
risen six of the past 12 weeks. During that period, the cost climbed
from 5,500 bolivars to 45,000 bolivars. That’s an increase of 718
percent. Translated into an annualized pace, it comes to 448,025
percent. (As breathtaking a figure as this is, it is still a far cry
from the worst hyperinflation episodes in history, like those in
Hungary in the 1940s or Zimbabwe last decade.)

The index’s explosion underscores how the socialist government’s
frantic bid to goose the economy by printing reams of cash is only
adding to the chaos and suffering in the country.

read more







14-AUG-2017 :: Finding the Off-Ramp
Africa


What we have learnt is that 5%-6% GDP growth (whilst better than most
of Africa) after being diluted by population expansion is not
effecting meaningful trickle-down. It was this fact (re-characterised
as a refrain ‘’You cannot eat GDP’’)

read more





Zimbabwe President Mnangagwa says elections in 5 months ReportFocus
Africa


President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said Zimbabweans should brace for
harmonised elections in the next five months, which should be
transparent, free and fair for the progressive good of the country.

Conclusions

read more



Zimbabwe president says his nation is "open for business" ahead of Davos
Africa


Mnangagwa, who swept to power last year after a de facto coup ousted
former president Robert Mugabe, told the gathering of government
officials and business leaders that he was going to the Davos meetings
to “dispel the perception” that Zimbabwe is “an isolated island.”

read more



"we are artificially maintaining the life of a regime that would by now be kaput." WPR
Africa


“Our mission is impossible,” admits one senior MONUSCO source in
Kinshasa who was not authorized to speak to the press and could not be
named. “The mandate is to support elections and protect civilians, but
the government doesn’t want either.” Without a willing partner, the
source adds, “we are artificially maintaining the life of a regime
that would by now be kaput.”

read more


There is a "clear danger" that South Africa's state-owned power utility, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., could default on its debt, S&P Global Ratings said.
Africa


Eskom is the biggest recipient of state guarantees at a time when
domestic power demand is the lowest in more than 10 years and as South
Africa’s finances buckle under lower tax revenue and rising debt. The
company needs 20 billion rand ($1.6 billion) of funding by the end of
its fiscal year on March 31, the Mail & Guardian newspaper reported
last week, citing the utility.

read more














Nasa in crunch talks over Raila swearing-in plan
Africa


The opposition coalition meets on Friday in Machakos in a final
attempt to rally Mr Raila Odinga’s co-principals behind his planned
swearing-in as the people’s president, scheduled for January 30.

Even as a technical organ of the opposition National Super Alliance
sought to dispel reports of divisions over the oath plan, sources
within the coalition revealed that talks between the four principals
on Monday and Tuesday, aimed at reaching a common ground on the
matter, had ended without a deal.

The issue will be discussed afresh during Friday’s meeting at Maanzoni
Lodge. Thereafter, the team will proceed to Machakos, where it will
launch the county’s people’s assembly.

It is understood that financiers and a few hardliners in Mr Odinga’s
Orange Democratic Movement are behind the push for the former Prime
Minister to take a presidential oath despite the risk of the
ramifications both locally and internationally.

Conclusions

We entered the Political Territory of Farce.

read more




@SafaricomLtd +0.86% to close at a Fresh record high of 29.25 has surged a blistering +9.345% in 2018. #Twaweza
Africa


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           29.25
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,171,913,769,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 24.174

read more









 
 
N.S.E Today


Brent crude futures were at $68.46 down 85 cents, or 1.2 percent, from
their last close.
On Monday, they hit their highest since December, 2014 at $70.37 a barrel.
The Kenya Shilling has a high inverse correlation to the Price of Oil
because it is Kenya Inc.s largest single expense item.
President Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe has embarked on a massive outreach
program and was quoted in the FT saying the following
Brexit is “a good thing because they will need us. And we will make
sure we become very close to them. So that what they’ve lost with
Brexit they can come and recover from Zimbabwe.”
The Rand was last at 12.18 a 2 and 1/2 Year High and I expect a
stellar Year for the rand in 2018.
The Nigeria All Share is up an eye popping +17.27% in 2018 and the
World's best this year.
Ghana is not far behind at +10.81% is in the slipstream.
The Nairobi All Share sprinted +0.941% higher to close at a fresh 10
Year High of 180.17
The Nairobi NSE20 rose +31.20 points to close at 3737.17.
Equity Turnover flew off the charts and clocked 5.954b with KenolKobil
a stand-out Feature.
The upcoming Infrastructure Bond 14 (IFB) will certainly be fully subscribed.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed +0.85% to close at a fresh record closing high of
29.50 and traded 6.590m shares. Safaricom has started this year real
boisterous and is +10.28% since the start of the Year continuing a
trend of multi-year outperformance. It remains a ''must-have'' stock
from Nairobi to New York.

Kenya Airways rebounded +2.24% to close at 15.95 after yesterdays low
volume drawdown.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Barclays Kenya [which was one of my Top 5 NSE Kenya picks along with
Safaricom, Standard Chartered bank, KenGen and Uchumi for 2018] soared
+8.54% to close at 10.80 and traded 297,000 shares. Barclays Kenya is
+12.5% in 2018.
KCB Group closed unchanged at 45.25 and traded 1.909m shares worth
86.723m. KCB has been fast out of the blocks in 2018 and is +5.84% in
2018.
Equity Bank rallied +1.73% to close at 44.00 and traded 846,400
shares. Equity is +10.69% in 2018. Many informed Folks believe
Equity's Dr. James Mwangi is ahead of the Digital curve.

NIC Group rallied +8.88% to close at 37.00 and traded 68,900 shares.

SanLam Kenya was marked down -7.69% to close 27.00 and traded 30,900 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenolKobil traded an eye-popping 369.977m shares [2.513% of the
company's shares and hence seriously meaningful] worth 5.438b and
closed unchanged at 14.70. KenolKobil's execution under the leadership
of David Ohana has been flawless and KenolKobil trades on a Trailing
PE Ratio of 8.963 and reported a +20.573% acceleration in H1 Profit
before income tax which clocked 2.080448b. Todays activity is a clear
Signal in the noise. KenolKobil is +5.00% in 2018 and has plenty of
scope to the Upside.

Interview with David Ohana, MD @KenolKobil @alykhansatchu @Richtvafrica
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTM5pF6nFzk&t=1507s

EABL rallied +1.27% to close at 240.00 and traded 384,500 shares,
ahead of its Full Year Earnings release expected at the end of next
week. EABL has been on the offensive and Investors will be keen to see
those Earnings. EABL is +0.84% in 2018.

KenGen closed unchanged at 8.20 but was trading at 8.30 +1.22% at the
Finish Line and this was the price point where we witnessed a mopping
up operation earlier this month.
KPLC traded 4.483m shares and closed unchanged at 8.75. KPLC has been
in the crossfire of plenty of publicity around its billing system and
is lagging the market indices at -3.846% in 2018.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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