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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 21st of February 2018
 
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Macro Thoughts

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A Syrian dad had to unfold several little shrouds, before recognising the body of his daughter Farah @juliamacfarlane
Africa


A Syrian dad had to unfold several little shrouds, all lined up on the
concrete floor of the morgue of the hospital in Syria's Douma, before
recognising the body of his daughter Farah.

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The girl is stateless Rohingya orphan she live with her relative hut from balukhali makeshift camp she lost her family in Myanmar @kalamabul408
Africa


The girl is stateless Rohingya orphan she live with her relative hut
from balukhali makeshift camp she lost her family in Myanmar, Burmese
military killed all her family members ,at that  time she was gang
raped the by military....

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China has sent a naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a frigate, an amphibious assault ship and a support tanker which entered the Indian Ocean last week
Law & Politics


China has sent a naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a
frigate, an amphibious assault ship and a support tanker which entered
the Indian Ocean last week to stop any Indian intervention in
Maldives.
CHINESE warships have entered the Indian Ocean, marking a significant
shift in regional power. They’re there to keep India away from
Beijing’s interests in the strife-torn Maldive Islands.
And their presence has implications for Australia.
Naval posturing is nothing new. Gunboat diplomacy has been a major
player in great power games of thrones for centuries.
But it is odd for it to be played out so close to home.
A scattering of pristine coral islands in the Indian Ocean is becoming
the next flash point between New Delhi and Beijing.
The Maldives islands are in the throes of a constitutional crisis.
The little democracy has traditionally been part of India’s “sphere of
influence”. And the eastern Indian Ocean is, of course, of significant
strategic importance to Australia.
But recently a new kid has arrived on the block.
And now Beijing’s grown enough confidence to let its presence be felt
in the area’s affairs.
A naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a frigate, an
amphibious assault ship and a support tanker entered the Indian Ocean
last week. It is believed destined to linger off the scenic
scatterings of coral, sand and palm trees.
International affairs analysts believe they’re there to stop India
from intervening.
Beijing, after all, has big plans for these little islands. And it
doesn’t want the locals getting in the way.
Every day, more than 40 million barrels of oil passes through the
strategic “chokepoints” at either end of the Indian 0cean. This
includes the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden and the Malacca
Strait.
All pass through the waters between the Maldives and Ceylon, to India’s south.
It’s a vital arterial supply line. Not least of all to Beijing.

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A recent report about China trying to acquire a military base in Pakistan has created new concerns about Beijing's long-term strategic plans in the Indian Ocean The Diplomat
Law & Politics


A recent report about China trying to acquire a military base in
Pakistan has created new concerns about Beijing’s long-term strategic
plans in the Indian Ocean. The new base is supposed to go up in
Jiwani, about 80 kilometers to the west of the better-known Gwadar
port.

If China does establish a military base here, it will be its second
foreign military base, after Djibouti, which was set up in August
2017. The Hambantota port in Sri Lanka given to China on a 99-year
lease could possibly be added to the facilities available to China,
though Sri Lanka has reportedly promised India that it will not allow
the port to be used for military purposes.

All of this appears to fit with a concerted Chinese push to establish
a long-term presence in Indian Ocean as well as to extend Beijing’s
power projection capabilities. The proposed air and naval facility in
Jiwani will come up next to Gwadar in Baluchistan, where China has
already established what appears to be a long-term maritime presence.
The new base is also fairly close to Chahabar port in Iran on the Gulf
of Oman. Chahabar was jointly developed by Iran, India, and
Afghanistan.

Gwadar is an important part of the China’s strategic plans, and it
seems primarily to be driven by Beijing’s fear of a potential naval
blockade of its sea lanes of communication (SLOCs). Irrespective of
how serious such a threat of a blockade is, China has justified its
interest in Gwadar as driven by its need for alternate shipping
routes. More recently, China has linked its interest in Gwadar with
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of the vital
corridors of Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite the
insurrection in Baluchistan, in which both Gwadar and Jawani lie,
China seems intent on doubling down on its Pakistan bet.

read more










12-FEB-2018 :: His sister Kim Yo Jong is now playing the soft power game
Law & Politics


His sister Kim Yo Jong is now playing the soft power game. “Water is
fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is
rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and
yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard.  is is another
paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu

South Korea is set to be peeled off and going by his puppy dog smiles
President Moonriver will be in PyongYang before you can pronounce Kim
Yo Jong correctly.

read more



Ex-Intellience Chief James Clapper says next phase of Russia probe could be Trump finances @newsweek
Law & Politics



Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper says other
shoes will drop in the ongoing Russia probe—most likely involving the
“finances” of the Trump campaign and the president's businesses.

In the wake of Friday's indictments of 13 Russian nationals by Special
Counsel Robert Mueller, Clapper said the next night on Anderson Cooper
360, "I think there are other shoes to drop here, notably the
finances."

“I think that's going to be another profound thing that's going to
come out about this. What were the financial relationships between the
Trump Organization before the election and then the Trump campaign?"
he said, although he acknowledged that his comments were speculation.

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2327
Dollar Index 89.86
Japan Yen 107.75
Swiss Franc 0.9375
Pound 1.3981
Aussie 0.7853
India Rupee 64.835
South Korea Won 1076.66
Brazil Real 3.2553
Egypt Pound 17.7000
South Africa Rand 11.7653

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#Amazon is eating the world, this BBG chart shows as Amazon continues to gain at the expense of the entire retail complex @Schuldensuehner
International Trade


#Amazon is eating the world, this BBG chart shows. On a day when
Walmart's stock is crashing 10% after reporting slowing online growth,
Amazon shares are adding >1% as Amazon continues to gain at the
expense of the entire retail complex.

read more






Venezuela Claims $735 Million Raised in First Cryptocurrency Sale @coindesk
Emerging Markets


Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro is claiming that the country has
raised $735 million in the first day of a sale for its controversial
"petro" cryptocurrency.

Announced late Tuesday night, Maduro offered no evidence to back up
the claim, though the messaging notably came directly from Maduro's
official Twitter account.

read more


#AlFuturoConElPetro @NicolasMaduro
Emerging Markets


A grandes problemas, ¡grandes soluciones! Desde el primer minuto el
juego arrancó bien, y arrancamos ganando: 4.777 millones de yuanes o
735 millones de dólares es el resultado inicial de las operaciones de
intención de compra del Petro. #AlFuturoConElPetro

To big problems, great solutions! From the first minute the game
started well, and we started winning: 4.777 billion yuan or 735
million dollars is the initial result of the operations of purchase
intent of the Petro. #AlFuturoConElPetro

Frontier Markets

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Congo Risks Losing Friendship With Zambia If It Does Not Allow Kabila To Stand For Another Term- Lungu
Africa


President Lungu has warned Congolese that they risk losing friendship
with Zambia if they continue demanding that Joseph Kapila steps down.
Speaking at State House yesterday, President Lungu said President
Kabila is a very good president who is loved by more than 60% of
Congolese adding that few opposition members should not infringe the
rights of the majority who would love him (Kabila) to continue
governing. He urged the opposition in Congo Dr to practice real
democracy by allowing the will of the people to prevail.

Meanwhile, President Lungu has warned foreign countries not to
interfere with domestic issues in Congo and Zambia. “These people
(western countries) should desist from interfering in our domestic
affairs,if our people want us to stay in office beyond the
constitutional limit, that’s our own choice and so no one should be
allowed to intervene”, said President Lungu.

read more



Congo's Kabila replaces interior minister amid declining security
Africa


Henri Mova Sakanyi, secretary-general of Kabila’s People’s Party for
Reconstruction and Democracy, replaces Emmanuel Ramazani Shadari,
another senior PPRD official, who had served in the post since
December 2016.

The reason for the change, announced in a communique read on national
television, was not immediately clear.

Ramazani is considered a staunch Kabila loyalist and has overseen the
security forces’ deadly crackdowns on protesters who have demonstrated
against repeated delays to a presidential election meant to choose
Kabila’s successor.

read more


19-FEB-2018 :: "Africa is not a Country" is a ubiquotious meme and at its core is an absolute Truth. The Continent is non-linear.
Africa


''Africa is not a Country'' is a ubiquotious meme and at its core is
an absolute Truth. The Continent is non-linear. Kinshasa is not Addis
Ababa is not Lagos is not Pretoria. However, ''a wind of change is
blowing through this continent''

read more


South Africa has till 2019 elections to cash-in on global windfall: @Citi
Africa


The rand, bonds and stocks have climbed to record highs due to what
analysts have dubbed the “Ramaphosa rally”, a buoyant market mood that
has taken hold since businessman Ramaphosa was elected leader of the
ruling African National Congress in December and then President of
South Africa.

During Ramaphosa’s maiden state of the nation address on Friday, a day
after replacing scandal-plagued Jacob Zuma as state president, the
rand surged to a three-year best.

Lubin said in an interview late on Monday that while Ramaphosa was
respected by international markets, moving fast on economic reforms
was key to turning optimism into long term investment.

“There’s been a very dramatic reassessment of South Africa’s
fundamentals in the last three weeks,” Lubin said.

Once the dust settles after the budget, urgent implementation of
fiscal and structural reforms was needed to retain investor support,
he said.

“It’s not a straightforward thing to implement reforms in mining,
education and the structure of corporate ownership and parastatals.
What the president chooses to tackle first and when he’s able to do
that will become big questions,” Lubin said.

“Conditions to go into the international (bond) market are absolutely
better than they were a year ago. SA (South Africa) is a member of an
asset class that’s in very good

read more


President @CyrilRamaphosa hosted a Cabinet farewell cocktail in honour of Former President Jacob Zuma at Tuynhuys
Africa


President @CyrilRamaphosa hosted a Cabinet farewell cocktail in honour
of Former President Jacob Zuma at Tuynhuys, Cape Town this evening 20
February 2018, attended by Ministers and Deputy Ministers.

read more


19-FEB-2018 :: The Wind of Change @TheStarKenya _
Africa


I listened to President Cyril Ramaphosa's State of the Union Speech
delivered in Cape Town on Friday night and I thought to myself this
Man has been writing this speech since 1994. From the narrow
perspective of the markets, this Speech was as loud a Buy Signal as
you are ever going to hear. There is plenty of Noise in this new c21st
now in which we all exist but since Davos, President Ramaphosa has
been emitting a very clear Signal and that Signal is to buy the ZAR
and the South African Stock market. South African markets are in a
process of pricing out a quite savage Zuma haircut [discount] and
might even move to a Ramaphosa premium. President Ramaphosa spoke at
some point in every single South African Language even Afrikaans and
this Tilt back towards the Language and mood of the Rainbow Nation,
which mood was encapsulated by Mandela donning a Springboks jersey
during the 1995 Rugby World Cup, had everyone dancing in the aisles at
the end of his speech. The President quoted the South African Icon
Hugh Masakela ''I want to be there when the People start to turn it
around....'' You want to be Long Limit Long Ramaphosa.

read more


South Africa's currency reached a three-year high after Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in as head of state on Feb. 15
Africa


Citigroup Inc. thinks the market has run ahead of itself, and took
profit on its rand and interest-rate bets this week. JPMorgan Chase &
Co. agrees, but is staying put in the absence of any near-term
triggers to spark a correction. Societe Generale SA, on the other
hand, increased its overweight exposure to South African sovereign
debt, while Standard Chartered Plc is betting on further rand
strength.

“There has been a fantastic run in rand assets,” Luis Costa, a
strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., wrote in a note Monday.
“The so-called Ramaphosa rally has indeed materialized. It is now time
for some reflection.”

The rand’s implied volatility is on the decline from the elevated
levels it reached during the leadership battle between Ramaphosa and
Jacob Zuma. That suggests traders are anticipating price swings to
narrow even as short-term risk factors -- including Wednesday’s budget
presentation and the debt-rating review by Moody’s -- approach. The
premium of options to sell the currency versus those to buy it, known
as the 25-Delta risk reversal, is also ticking lower as traders cut
back on bearish bets.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.65% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.7653

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Mercury, Venus and Saturn above the pyramids of Giza, Egypt. This
occurs once every 2373 years. @welcomet0nature

https://twitter.com/welcomet0nature/status/965752864206241793

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.70009

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +10.21% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

read more


Cash-Rich Pension Funds in Ghana Drive World-Beating Stock Gains @BBGAFRICA
Africa


“We are seeing more participation from local institutional investors,
especially the pension funds,” said Sena Agbo, head of investment
banking at SAS Finance Group, which runs the country’s second-best
performing mutual fund. “The temporary pensions account now
transferred to them is enabling them to increase their take of
stocks.”

The value of stocks traded by local investors increased almost
five-fold from a year earlier last month, according to the Accra-based
Central Securities Depository Ltd. As of Tuesday, the 36-member Ghana
Stock Exchange Composite Index had risen more than the 95 other
benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg in dollar terms since Jan. 1, boosted
by a World Bank forecast that the economy will expand by 8.3 percent
in 2018, the fastest pace on the continent.

“The economy is growing and a lot of incentives like tax cuts and
utility price decreases are out there to make businesses competitive,”
Sidney Koranteng, a stock trader at Databank Group in Accra, said by
phone. “It shows we’re in a period of a boom. The market is not hot
yet.”

read more



19-FEB-2018 :: The Wind of Change @TheStarKenya _
Africa


I listened to President Cyril Ramaphosa's State of the Union Speech
delivered in Cape Town on Friday night and I thought to myself this
Man has been writing this speech since 1994. From the narrow
perspective of the markets, this Speech was as loud a Buy Signal as
you are ever going to hear. There is plenty of Noise in this new c21st
now in which we all exist but since Davos, President Ramaphosa has
been emitting a very clear Signal and that Signal is to buy the ZAR
and the South African Stock market. South African markets are in a
process of pricing out a quite savage Zuma haircut [discount] and
might even move to a Ramaphosa premium. President Ramaphosa spoke at
some point in every single South African Language even Afrikaans and
this Tilt back towards the Language and mood of the Rainbow Nation,
which mood was encapsulated by Mandela donning a Springboks jersey
during the 1995 Rugby World Cup, had everyone dancing in the aisles at
the end of his speech. The President quoted the South African Icon
Hugh Masakela ''I want to be there when the People start to turn it
around....'' You want to be Long Limit Long Ramaphosa.

My Mind then looped back to another Speech which was delivered to the
Parliament in Cape Town but that speech was delivered on February 3rd
1960 and by a British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan who said

''The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we
like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political
fact''

''Africa is not a Country'' is a ubiquotious meme and at its core is
an absolute Truth. The Continent is non-linear. Kinshasa is not Addis
Ababa is not Lagos is not Pretoria. However, ''a wind of change is
blowing through this continent''

Condoleezza Rice who served as Secretary of State said

''What we're seeing here is, in a sense, the growing—the birth pangs
of a new Middle East, and whatever we do, we have to be certain that
we're pushing forward to the new Middle East, not going back to the
old Middle East'' [Replace Middle East with Africa]

Notwithstanding Jacob Zuma's truculence and some moments of high
drama, the Rainbow Nation gave birth to President Ramaphosa with
relative ease. The Former Liberation Movements in Angola and Zimbabwe
are trying to re-invent themselves. And surely further political
longevity will be decided by the degree with which Lourenco and
Mnangagwa break with the past. There are reasons for optimism. If this
were a continuum, then the likes of Ethiopia and DR Congo and some
others are at the extreme end of the continuum. We know these
Countries are in the delivery room. Ethiopia [a Poster-Child for GDP
growth and where many Investors saw a China Version 2 type
opportunity] has re-instituted a state of Emergency and its Prime
Minister has stepped aside. President Trump has a core support of
about 30% of the Population. The core support of the Ethiopian Regime
is 6%. There is no mercurial Meles Zenawi to sit atop it all and The
situation is no longer tenable and a Tipping Point could be very
close. President Kabila has finally acceded to entering the delivery
room but this is clearly a problematic delivery.

The Wind of Change is blowing through this Continent.

read more



"An IMF staff team is currently in Nairobi for discussions on a possible new program and we are hopeful for an agreement." @IMFNews - Jan Mikkelsen
Kenyan Economy


Statement by the IMF Resident Representative in Nairobi February 20, 2018

IMF Resident Representative in Nairobi, Jan Mikkelsen, issued the
following statement on Kenya today:
“Further to some press reports earlier today, I would like to clarify
the status of Kenya's Fund-supported program.

“The precautionary SBA/SCF arrangement remains in place until
end-March 2018. The second and third reviews of the program, due
respectively in June and December 2017, could not be completed on
schedule as agreement could not be reached on stronger fiscal
policies, and discussions were postponed due to the prolonged election
period. Kenya continues to have access to resources since June subject
to policy understandings to complete the outstanding reviews.

“An IMF staff team is currently in Nairobi for discussions on a
possible new program and we are hopeful for an agreement.”

read more


Kenya central bank says IMF facility available. IMF say that's not true
Kenyan Economy


The International Monetary Fund withdrew Kenya’s access to a $1.5
billion standby loan in June. That hasn’t stopped the country’s
central bank saying the funds are still available.

The Washington-based lender, which has a delegation visiting Kenya
this week, removed permission to tap the precautionary financing after
the government failed to meet budget-deficit targets attached to the
loan agreement. It’s the first time the withdrawal of access has been
made public.

Adjustments that were needed to meet the targets were “insufficient
and follow-up discussions on the review were postponed due to the long
election period,” IMF country representative Jan Mikkelsen said in an
interview in the capital, Nairobi. “The second review of the program
was not completed. As a result, access to the precautionary resources
has not been available since mid-June 2017.”

Statements by the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee after its
past four meetings have referred to the availability of the standby
facility. Its latest communication in January said the funds “continue
to provide an adequate buffer against short-term shocks in the
foreign-exchange market.”

The central bank didn’t respond to a request for comment sent by email
on Feb. 15.

The facility comprised a $990 million arrangement repayable with
interest over five years, and a $495 million, interest-free credit
repayable over eight years. The funds, approved by the IMF in March
2016, were available for Kenya to access if it faced “exogenous
shocks” that led to a balance-of-payments crisis.

The loan agreement required the country to narrow the budget deficit
to 3.7 percent of gross domestic product in the 2018-19 budget year to
reduce the risk of debt distress while providing space for spending
priorities. The shortfall is projected to reach 7.2 percent in the
year that ends June 30, and 6 percent in 2018-19, according to the
Treasury.

The government has requested a new IMF program to replace the existing
one that expires in March. An IMF mission began a visit to Kenya this
week to discuss its replacement, Mikkelsen said.

“Key issues for discussion include measures to reduce the fiscal
deficit to ensure a sustainable debt path and measures to promote
credit growth to the private sector,” he said. “On the latter, as
previously noted, the IMF does see the interest-rate controls as an
important constraining factor. Also, the interest-rate controls make
it more difficult to manage monetary policy effectively.”

In the meantime, Mikkelsen said Kenya’s foreign-exchange reserve
position remains “comfortable throughout and sufficient to address
potential shocks in the near-term.” Kenya’s reserves stood at $7.18
billion on Feb. 9, enough to cover 4.8 months of imports, according to
central bank data.

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.16% 2018

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.41% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


There has been plenty of to-ing and fro-ing around The IMF's $1.5
billion standby loan which was designed to be a precautionary facility
which would only be drawn in a scenario of an ''exogenous shock''
Bloomberg carried a report yesterday which signalled the Facility had expired.
Today the IMF's Jan Mikkelsen said the following;
“The precautionary SBA/SCF arrangement remains in place until
end-March 2018. The second and third reviews of the program, due
respectively in June and December 2017, could not be completed on
schedule as agreement could not be reached on stronger fiscal
policies, and discussions were postponed due to the prolonged election
period. Kenya continues to have access to resources since June subject
to policy understandings to complete the outstanding reviews''
“An IMF staff team is currently in Nairobi for discussions on a
possible new program and we are hopeful for an agreement.”
“The facility is in place but permission to access it has been
withdrawn,” said Anzetse Were to Reuters
This is a sensitive time as the Government is on a Road-show where
they are seeking to drum up interest for a Eurobond.
We have now learnt that Kenya is in the Eurobond market today.
It is selling 10-year dollar debt with initial price talk of around
7.625% and 30-year debt with initial price talk of 8.625%
We will surely see some improvement in those headline rates but My
Takeaway is that these Bonds are priced to clear and to collect $3b.
The Shilling was trading at 101.449 last.
The Nairobi All Share eased -0.03 points to close at 181.71
The Nairobi NSE20 edged +2.91 points higher to close at 3730.24.
Equity turnover was brisk and topped a billion to clock 1.024b.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 29.75 and traded 14.466m shares worth
433.583m. Safaricom is +11.214% in 2018 and has underpinned the move
higher in the Nairobi All Share in 2018.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


DTB firmed +0.48% to close at 210.00 on heavy volume action [for this
counter] of 752,300 shares worth 157.983m. DTB is +9.375% in 2018 and
trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 7.795 and reported a -5.583% decline
in EPS through Q3.
Equity Bank eased -0.58% to close at 43.00 and traded 2.148m shares
worth 92.739m. Equity Bank is +8.176% in 2018 and trades on a Trailing
PE Ratio of 9.817.
KCB Group eased -0.55% to close at 45.50 and traded 1.752m shares. KCB
is +6.43% in 2018 and trades on a Trailing PE of 7.04.
COOP Bank improved +0.29% to close at 17.10 and traded 3.133m shares.
COOP Bank is +6.875% in 2018.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased -0.40% to close at 244.00 and traded 190,300 shares. EABL
is +2.52% in 2018.

Unga eased -0.588% to close at 42.50 and traded a chunky block of
975,300 shares [1.288% of its shares] worth 41.443m. Unga is the
subject of a 40/= a share Buy Out offer and clearly todays seller saw
a +6.25% premium to that Offer as a good deal. I expect the Offer to
be increased to at least 50.00. Unga is +46.555% in 2018.

Unga share price data here +46.555% in 2018

http://live.rich.co.ke/bdexp/index.php

KenGen firmed +1.2% to close at 8.45 and traded 78,900 shares. There
were Buyers for 8x the volume traded at the finish Line signalling
this level has held again for the 4th time this Year. KenGen's Rebecca
Miano has been setting out her stall with some finesse.

KenolKobil rallied +3.571% to close at a 2018 high of 15.95 and traded
1.080m shares. KenolKobil is +13.92% in 2018.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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