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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 23rd of March 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Kampala Uganda
Africa


The Drive from Entebbe to Kampala obviously resonates and harks back
to that Flight triggered by Idi Amin. But today, its a hive of
activity even around 830 pm.

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THE WALK OF LIFE - I hope that the serenity and power of this image will allow it to stand the test of time @David_Yarrow
Africa


THE WALK OF LIFE - I hope that the serenity and power of this image
will allow it to stand the test of time. If so, give the credit to the
elephant not me. To quote John Donne; "Nature's great masterpiece, an
elephant; the only harmless great thing.”

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Here, the Mudanda Rock is a 1.6 km wide stratified rock that collects water and attracts hundreds of elephants and wildlife that come to drink there @ThinkTraveling
Africa


#Travel In Kenya we visited Tsavo National park home of the 'big five'
lions, black rhino, cape buffalo, elephant and leopard. Here, the
Mudanda Rock is a 1.6 km wide stratified rock that collects water and
attracts hundreds of elephants and  wildlife that come to drink there.

read more








"Youthquake", defined as "a significant cultural, political, or social change arising from the actions or influence of young people"
Law & Politics


“Youthquake”, defined as “a significant cultural, political, or social
change arising from the actions or influence of young people”, has
been selected by Oxford Dictionaries as the 2017 word of the year.

read more



When he drives his own Hyndai from Damascus to Ghouta under the most dangerous circumstances it means a complete trust in his people, his army, and his country's inevitable victory
Law & Politics


Whether you like him or not, one thing is a fact: When he drives his
own Hyndai from Damascus to Ghouta under the most dangerous
circumstances it means a complete trust in his people, his army, and
his country’s inevitable victory.

read more


The @Presidency_Sy has been quite effective at making sure their Signal can be heard through the hysteria and the Noise this drive-by being a good example @hervegogo
Law & Politics


EU leaders side with the U.K. and say it’s “highly likely” that Russia
was behind the nerve agent poisoning in Britain of a former double
agent

https://bloom.bg/2GhIbd1

The united front was revealed in a tweet from EU Council President
Donald Tusk who said the bloc “agrees with U.K. government that highly
likely Russia is responsible for Salisbury attack and that there is no
other plausible explanation.

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How British Savers Finance Putin's Russia @business
Law & Politics


As British Prime Minister Theresa May revealed her plans to hit back
at Russia last week, investment funds were clamoring to get a piece of
a $4 billion Eurobond sale. U.K.-based institutional investors
accounted for half of the buyers of one of the bonds on offer.

“It raises a broader question about what investment funds do with
their money,” said Richard Connolly, a lecturer at the University of
Birmingham focusing on Russian political economy. “If the yield is
good, the money will find its way there. It’s such a difficult
question for anyone to address legislatively.”

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Bolton has called for war with Iran and North Korea (among others). The writing is on the wall, and Trump is making a hard turn in the direction of conflict @brhodes
Law & Politics


Bolton has called for war with Iran and North Korea (among others).
Pompeo has attacked the Iran Deal relentlessly. The writing is on the
wall, and Trump is making a hard turn in the direction of conflict,
insecurity, and the global isolation of the United States.

read more













Gaddafi's ghost haunts walking-dead King Sarko @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


NATO’s 2011 war on Libya was unanimously sold across the West as a
necessary humanitarian operation against the proverbial evil dictator
(Hillary Clinton: “We came, we saw, he died.”). Russia and China were
firmly against it.

Now, in a stunning historical reversal, the ghost of Colonel Muammar
Gaddafi seems to have come back to haunt former French President
Nicolas Sarkozy, the self-described superstar of that R2P
(“responsibility to protect”) spectacular.

The “Colonel Sarko bombshell” exploded on Wednesday evening: he had
been placed under formal investigation for passive corruption, illegal
campaign financing, and misappropriation of Libyan state funds.

“Formal investigation,” under French law, means there is “serious
and/or consistent evidence” hinting at involvement in a crime. The
next step could be a trial, but the whole investigation could also
reach a dead end.

Sarkozy has been the target of no fewer than 10 different
investigations so far – seven of them still ongoing.

Sarkozy, widely derided by progressives as “King Sarko” during his
tenure, is suspected of having financed his 2007 presidential campaign
with Gaddafi funds.

In November 2016, Takiedinne admitted he brought in person to the
French Interior Ministry several suitcases full of cash prepared by
Tripoli, totaling 5 million euros

And the evidence, in this case, does exist. Among other explosive
pieces, an official Libyan document, obtained through an investigation
conducted by the French website Mediapart, proves Gaddafi handed over
no less than 50 million euros to Sarkozy’s campaign.

Everyone in France still remembers King Sarko posing as the Liberator
of Libya – and fiercely disputing the title with the shameless,
self-promoting, fake “philosopher” Bernard-Henri Levy, a.k.a. BHL.

In September 2011, I outlined for Asia Times – see, for instance, here
and here – the myriad reasons why Gaddafi had to go, most of them
related to precise French geoeconomic interests and King Sarko’s
dreams of cross-Mediterranean glory (“We have aligned with the Arab
people in their aspiration for freedom”).

Turns out it’s the Colonel that may have actually made the (faux) King.

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Latest on trade @business
International Trade


- Trump orders tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese imports
- China hits back with tariffs on $3 billion of U.S imports
- Asia stocks fall after slide in U.S. shares

read more




They closed on Thursday at $164.89, down 2.7 percent. The S&P 500 Index was down 2.5 percent on the day. Facebook shares closed at $185.09 on Friday. [Target $150.00]
International Trade


Facebook, with more than 2 billion monthly active users, made almost
all its $40.6 billion in revenue last year from advertising.

read more


Mar 21 SELL @facebook H/T @ReutersJamie
International Trade


Mar 21 Remains a SELL ->>> @Facebook down more than 10% in last two
days, worst two-day performance since Sept. 2012

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2334
Dollar Index 89.62
Japan Yen 104.81
Swiss Franc 0.9454
Pound 1.4115
Aussie 0.7710
India Rupee 65.175
South Korea Won 1080.74
Brazil Real 3.3155
Egypt Pound 17.6215
South Africa Rand 11.8469

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JPM: In terms of the USD as long as key-support at 88.88 (int. 76.4 %) in the USD Index @TCommodity
World Currencies


JPM: In terms of the USD and despite the latest setback, we still see
the start window for a broader recovery open as long as key-support at
88.88 (int. 76.4 %) in the USD Index is holding

read more





Tencent's 60,000% Runup Leads to One of the Biggest VC Payoffs Ever @business
International Trade


South African media company Naspers Ltd. is cashing in a sliver of one
of the greatest venture-capital investments ever.

The Cape Town-based company is selling $10.6 billion of shares in
Tencent Holdings Ltd., equal to 2 percent of the stock in the Chinese
operator of the WeChat messaging service, it said in a statement
Thursday. The stake Naspers bought for just $32 million in 2001 --
when Tencent was an obscure Web firm in a nation where few people used
the Internet -- is now worth $175 billion.

The sale comes hours after Tencent, Asia’s most valuable company,
warned it will sacrifice short-term margins, spending on content and
technology in pursuit of growth. While the forecast led to a 5 percent
slump in Tencent’s stock, Naspers said it still considers the company
“to be one of the very best growth enterprises in any industry in the
world, managed by an exceptionally able team.”

Naspers might have remained a little-known publisher of South African
newspapers and operator of pay-TV services if not for the decision to
invest in Tencent. While the investment has made Naspers the most
valuable company in Africa, its market capitalization of about $122
billion lags well behind the value of the Tencent holding, suggesting
investors assign no value to its other businesses.

Naspers’s quandary is similar to those faced by other companies that
made hugely successful investments in technology start-ups that
eventually overshadowed their operating businesses, such as the
winning bets Yahoo! Inc. and SoftBank Group Corp. made on Alibaba
Group Holding.

“By doing this, Naspers will be able to reduce its borrowings, grow
its own portfolio and slowly start reducing that underlying discount,”
said money manager Ron Klipin at Cratos Capital.

Chief Executive Officer Bob Van Dijk has been trying to reduce the
discount by looking for new investments to replicate the Tencent
success; he’s put cash into a range of internet companies from the
U.S. to Russia and India. Naspers will use the money from the sale of
Tencent shares to invest in its classifieds, online food delivery and
fintech businesses and make other investments, it said.

The sale of 190 million shares, worth $10.6 billion based on Tencent’s
closing price in Hong Kong on Thursday, will cut the stake held by
Naspers to 31.2 percent from 33.2 percent. It’s the first time Naspers
has reduced its holdings in Tencent since investing in the company.
Naspers won’t sell more shares in the company for at least three
years, it said.

The decision to refrain from further sales and a failure to announce
plans to return funds to shareholders through a buyback didn’t sit
well with some investors. Naspers fell as much as 9.6 percent to 3,127
rand on Thursday in Johannesburg, the biggest intraday decline in
almost a decade.

“The market is short-term-natured, and there is some unhappiness that
they will not sell again in the next three years,” said Byron Lotter,
a money manager at Johannesburg Vestact, which holds Naspers shares.
“There could be some concern in terms of what Naspers have been
investing in outside of Tencent that are mostly smaller assets.”

Investment bankers at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and
Morgan Stanley are offering the shares to institutional investors. The
sale should close before the Hong Kong market opens on Friday, Naspers
said.

read more










Zambia handed First Quantum Minerals Ltd. a $7.9 billion tax bill
Africa


Zambia handed First Quantum Minerals Ltd. a $7.9 billion tax bill and
said it’s planning an audit of other mining companies going back six
years. The Canadian miner’s shares fell the most in almost two years.

First Quantum received a letter from the Zambia Revenue Authority
dated Monday “noting an assessment for import duties, penalties and
interest on consumables and spare parts,” the Vancouver-based company
said Tuesday in a statement. The southern African nation accounts for
84 percent of its revenue.

“The company unequivocally refutes this assessment which does not
appear to have any discernible basis of calculation and will continue
working with the ZRA, as it normally does, to resolve the issue,” it
said.

Shares of First Quantum fell as much as 13 percent in Toronto on
Tuesday and were down 12 percent when the stock was halted ahead of
the company’s statement. First Quantum, which operates the Kansanshi
and Kalumbila mines in the country, accounted for more than half of
Zambia’s copper production last year and is the biggest individual
taxpayer.

Conclusions


The domestic Optics seem to be all around putting out more and more
outlandish claims.

read more


Zimbabwe's New President Chalks Up $4.2 Billion PGM Deal @business
Africa


Karo Resources, a company linked to mining entrepreneur Loucas
Pouroulis, will spend $4.2 billion on a Zimbabwean platinum project in
the first big investment since President Robert Mugabe’s ousting in
November.

The deal is the largest to date in Zimbabwe’s mining industry, Mines
Minister Winston Chitando said. President Emmerson Mnangagwa has
declared the “country open for business” as he seeks to revive the
economy and attract investment.

“It is not business as usual anymore,” the president told reporters on
Thursday. “Things have to change.”

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.83% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.8469 [Buy at 12.00+ for a
move below 11.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6215

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +8.87% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

read more


Ghana May Sell the First African Samurai Bond Since 2001 @business
Africa


Ofori-Atta will meet Japanese officials, investors and lenders from
April 9 to 14 to discuss a debt issuance and to finalize a bilateral
investment treaty, according to a document seen by Bloomberg and the
people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private.
A Samurai issuance by Ghana will be the first from a government on the
continent since South Africa sold 90 billion yen ($853 million) in
2001.

Charles Adu Boahen, the deputy finance minister, said in a text
message that he wasn’t aware of plans to sell such a bond.

Ghanaian lawmakers will vote on Friday to approve a sale of as much as
$2.5 billion in sovereign debt, Mark Assibey-Yeboah, chairman of the
parliamentary finance committee, said by phone. Ghana will sell $1
billion in Eurobonds to finance this year’s budget and another $1.5
billion if the sale attracts more favorable rates than those it pays
for existing debt, Ofori-Atta said earlier this month.

Platinum prices have fallen by half since a peak in 2011, amid
concerns about demand for the metal used to curb pollution from diesel
cars. Zimbabwe has a law requiring that platinum and diamond mining
companies be at least 51 percent locally owned, although Chitando said
last month the government will consider applications for waivers.

“Zimbabwe’s geology is unrivaled,” Harvey said by phone from Cape
Town. “While six months ago you would have struggled to talk that kind
of capital, investors have a short political memory.”

read more



Raila beats rivals to a new deal @Africa_Conf
Kenyan Economy


The opposition is in disarray after its erstwhile leader signs a
surprise agreement with President Kenyatta

It was the most ambiguous of handshakes, despite the claims that
President Uhuru Kenyatta and the opposition leader Raila Odinga's
meeting on 9 March – after months of acrimony – would 'build bridges
to a new Kenyan nation'. More sceptical voices cautioned about its
chances of survival.

But it served a clear enough purpose. It dampened down the
confrontational political mood and boosted the economy. Within hours
of the handshake, the shilling strengthened and Nairobi's stock
exchange index edged up.

The governing Jubilee coalition choreographed it expertly. The optics
– two smiling rivals now apparently reconciled – pointed to a grand
new political arrangement, even if none of the practical details were
spelled out. Two hours after the handshake, the United States
Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, landed in Nairobi. Any questions he
may have had about political reconciliation and national stability
would be met with that day's headlines: 'The big handshake'.

Although Odinga had lambasted Washington's Ambassador to Nairobi,
Robert Godec, as biased against the opposition, we hear that US
pressure behind the scenes played some role in the deal. Opposition
officials say that the US had been considering imposing sanctions
against those politicians judged to be blocking a political
settlement, a formula that Washington has used elsewhere.

For Kenyatta, the Raila rapprochement is part of his hopes for a
legacy, at least a record not dominated by political and ethnic
strife. Odinga is the most obvious beneficiary. It has taken his
political career from street demonstrations and back into some form of
government role. He may now claim to be co-ruling with Kenyatta in
important aspects of national life.

Under the terms of the deal discussed, we hear that Odinga will have a
plush government office at Jogoo House, next to Kenyatta's set-up at
Harambee House, the obligatory ministerial Mercedes 500 with security
and motorcycle outriders, a budget for the Building Bridges project
and a salary. It has also freed him from pressure from his top three
associates in the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa). Wycliffe
Musalia Mudavadi, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Simiyu Wetangula
had been secretly negotiating an alliance with Kenyatta in their own
right.

They also repeatedly threatened to defect from Nasa unless Odinga
renounced all ambitions to run for the presidency in 2022 in favour of
one of them (AC Vol 59 No 1, Political rift will linger & Vol 59 No 5,
Down the autocrat's alley). As a top Odinga advisor told Africa
Confidential, 'Now he has beaten them at their own game and caught
them by surprise. They were joyriders in a Raila-driven party.'

Not even the drafters in Odinga's and Kenyatta's offices were aware of
the purpose of the agreement, the opening paragraphs and names for
which were typed in last at Harambee House, the President's office,
with both men present. Quietly, but with Ruto's assent, Kenyatta had
been talking to Odinga about a rapprochement since the Nasa leader
declared himself 'the people's president' on 30 January.

Much of the early pressure for the pact came from First Lady Margaret
Wanjiru Kenyatta and Raila's wife, Ida Odinga, who met weeks before
the mock inauguration. Ida Odinga was opposed to Nasa's hard-liners,
who cared little that Raila risked being charged with treason. Uhuru's
mother, Mama Ngina Kenyatta, and his younger brother, Muhoho Kenyatta
('MK'), joined in, reassuring the Odingas in person that Uhuru wanted
reconciliation and that a role would be created for Raila in
government.

This all came to a head at Odinga's mock inauguration in January. On
the day, the Jubilee leadership chose hard-line tactics: riot police
and the well-armed General Service Unit surrounded Uhuru Park. But we
hear that coordinated pressure by the leaders' wives led to
negotiations and plans for massive police intervention were called
off. Yet the Jubilee hardliners prevailed with the media ban: all
television stations defying government orders not to broadcast the
mock inauguration were taken off the air.

The agreement reads like a cross between an election manifesto of a
new party and a list of Kenya's toughest problems – matters that the
Jubilee government should be dealing with anyway. It is couched in
generalities: from failure to forge nationalist feeling, ethnic
friction, income inequality and corruption to electoral violence, hate
speech and decentralisation's link to security (AC Vol 58 No 23,
Counting on the counties).

Beyond establishing a secretariat?– led by Ambassador Martin Kimani,
the government's Director for Counter-Terrorism, and Orange Democratic
Movement's lawyer Paul Mwangi – the agreement says little. This should
suit Odinga and the experts he will bring into his office, enabling
him to recommend interventions in most national ministries.

Vice-President Ruto welcomed the agreement with caution, having seen
Odinga defect from the opposition in 1998 to join Daniel arap Moi's
Kenya African National Union in government. Odinga proceeded to wreck
the party from within, defecting back to the opposition with a large
following in 2002 and eventually unseating KANU.

Ruto's Kalenjin wing of Jubilee worries that the Kikuyu faction under
Kenyatta could bypass him for the leadership succession in 2022. This
is despite repeated assurances from Kenyatta that he and his allies
will stand by Ruto.

The biggest losers are Mudavadi, Musyoka and Wetangula. Once sure of
its position close to Jubilee, ODM began to distance itself from Nasa,
removing Wetangula as Senate minority leader on 15 March and replacing
him with James Orengo, a Raila loyalist. The trio now say that they
want to negotiate their own agreement with Kenyatta but for now they
are marooned politically. Yet as often happens with Kenyan politics,
that could all change next month.

read more



Did Kenya get a loan to build a railway, or vice versa? @TheEconomist
Kenyan Economy


WHEN Kenya launched its new railway last year, connecting the coastal
city of Mombasa to the capital, Nairobi, passenger tickets sold out.
Travelling between the country’s two biggest cities overland had meant
crowding into a bus for 12 hours, or riding the old British-built
railway, which might have taken 24 hours. The new line, run by Chinese
engineers who wander up and down the carriages, has cut the journey to
between four and six hours, depending on the number of stops. The
seats are comfortable and, at just 700 shillings (about $7),
affordable. Lucky passengers see elephants along the way.

Shuttling passengers, however, is not what the new line was built for.
When Kenya borrowed $3.2bn from China for the railway in 2014, the aim
was to move freight efficiently between the capital and the port at
Mombasa, 484km (301 miles) apart. Unlike the passenger service, the
cargo one has been a disaster. The second train out of Mombasa arrived
a day late, because it didn’t have enough goods to leave the port.
Passengers may find the biggest elephant on their journey is the white
one they are riding.

In theory the line should move about 40% of the freight coming inland
from Mombasa. The cargo is loaded straight from ships onto trains,
which take it to a depot near Nairobi. There it is processed by
customs officials. The goal is to relieve congestion on the roads and
lower transport costs. One day, it is hoped, the railway will connect
all of east Africa. For now, officials would settle for enough revenue
to cover the running costs and repay the loans.

But getting importers to use it is proving harder than expected. In
its first month the line moved just 1,600 containers out of roughly
80,000 processed in Mombasa. Though the trains go faster than lorries,
the line is far less efficient at moving cargo, says William Ojonyo of
Keynote Logistics, a Nairobi-based cargo-clearing firm. There have
been delays in loading trains. Customs processing at the inland depot
is less reliable than in Mombasa. “We are more comfortable dealing
with the devil we know, the container on a truck,” he says.

Fees were cut after the first slow month, but traffic did not improve
much. On March 1st James Macharia, the transport secretary, sacked 14
out of 16 heads of department at the Kenyan Port Authority, alleging
that “cartels” had been obstructing the new railway. Cargo that is not
directed to a specific clearing depot in Mombasa has been ordered onto
the railway automatically, regardless of its final destination.
Importers have arrived in Mombasa to pick up containers, only to find
that they have been sent to Nairobi.

Few in Mombasa are pleased by the idea of cargo being sent straight to
the interior, bypassing the armies of agents based in the port city.
Hassan Joho, Mombasa’s governor, a fierce critic of the new railway,
has stakes in two container-storage depots in the city, which the
railway could undermine. By moving freight straight to Nairobi,
“you’re killing the economy down here,” says Mr Joho’s spokesman.

In 2013 the World Bank said that a new railway would be feasible only
if it were able to move at least 20m tonnes of cargo a year, just
about everything that goes through the port. At best, the new line
will transport half of that. Some fear that it may not make enough to
cover its running costs. If the authorities then skimp on maintenance,
the railway could deteriorate quickly.

Before the new line Kenya already had a functional railway—the old
British one. In the 1980s it moved about 5m tonnes of cargo a year. It
could have been refurbished for perhaps a quarter of the cost of
building a new one. But that would not have come with a big Chinese
loan or the cash that was splashed out on subcontracts and the land
purchases needed for the new line. Some cynics in Nairobi say that
building the railway was a way to get a loan, rather than the other
way round.

read more


Equity Group reports FY 2017 EPS +14.155% Earnings here +32.075% in 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           52.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        194,395,793,550
EPS:             5.00
PE:                 10.5

FY Kenyan government securities – held to maturity 128.001775b vs.
100.588954b +27.252%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 279.091669b vs. 266.068089b +4.895%
FY Total assets 524.465745b vs. 473.713133b +10.714%
FY Customer deposits 373.143247b vs. 337.198618b +10.660%
FY Borrowed funds 46.137632b vs. 45.770072b +0.803%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 93.142935b vs. 81.977096b +13.621%
FY Loans and advances interest income 33.830635b vs. 43.065889b -21.444%
FY Government securities interest income 13.393880b vs. 7.882239b +69.925%
FY Total interest income 48.410471b vs. 51.840604b -6.617%
FY Customer deposits expense [8.075892b] vs. [7.883466b] +2.441%
FY Other interest expenses [2.418697b] vs. [1.922526b] +25.808%
FY Total interest expenses [10.840862b] vs. [10.026712b] +8.120%
FY Net interest income 37.569609b vs. 41.813893b -10.150%
FY Fees and commissions income on loans and advances 5.914035b vs.
4.416234b +33.916%
FY Other fees and commissions income 13.365790b vs. 11.364858b +17.606%
FY FX trading income 4.110964b vs. 3.307113b +24.307%
FY Total non-interest income 27.591699b vs. 22.218783b +24.182%
FY Total operating income 65.161308b vs. 64.032676b +1.763%
FY Loan loss provision [3.431331b] vs. [6.645641b] -48.367%
FY Staff costs [11.475853b] vs. [11.628908b] -1.316%
FY Other operating expenses [16.310153b] vs. [13.987251b] +16.607%
FY Total operating expenses [38.278885b] vs. [39.105794b] -2.115%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 26.882423b vs.
24.926883b +7.845%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 18.918051b vs.
16.602529b +13.947%
Basic and diluted EPS 5.00 vs. 4.38 +14.155%
Dividend per share 2.00 vs. 2.00 –
Total NPL and advances 15.442413b vs. 16.717199b -7.626%
Liquidity ratio 54.2% vs. 47.6% +6.600

Equity Bank FY17 Results via Kestrel Capital
NIMs stood at 8.5%, higher than our estimates of 8.2%.
Non-interest income increased by 22.0% y/y to KES 27.6bn, marginally
below our estimate of 27.9bn.
Staff costs were higher than expected at KES 11.5bn, down 1% y/y.
Notably, other operating expenses were also slightly higher than
expected, up 17% y/y to – KES 16.3bn.
NPLs declined from 7.4% in 3Q17 to 6.3% in 4Q17 – notable improvement
especially if you look at the trend in NPLs going up even into Feb
2018.
As at the last price of KES 53.50, Equity Bank trades at a  P/E of
12.2x and a P/B of 2.2x. Notably, the ROE currently stands at 17.8%.
We believe Equity Bank is trading at fair valuations even assuming a
reversal of interest rate caps.

read more




We believe that the future of banking is predictive capability and this is where we have set our eyes as a Group - Dr. Mwangi #EquityFYResults2017 @KeEquityBank
Kenyan Economy


#Equitel transaction volumes grew by 11% to Ksh 251.6mn from 227.4mn
YoY - Dr. Mwangi #EquityFYResults2017
#Equitel transaction value grew by 32% to Kshs 480.3bn up from Ksh
364.4bn in 2016 - Dr. Mwangi #EquityFYResults2017
Equity bank Uganda PBT grew by 88%, Rwanda by 76%, DRC by 55%, South
Sudan by 107%, Finserve by 29% and EIB by 48%. #EquityFYResults2017
Regional and business diversification resulted in a double-digit
growth across the subsidiaries with an increased contribution of PBT
of 14% from 8% YoY #EquityFYResults2017
Subsidiary contribution to PAT doubled to 14% from 7% #EquityFYResults2017
NPLs at 6.3% vs Industry average of 10.6%.   #EquityFYResults2017

read more




96% of all transactions are outside the branch. #EquityFYResults2017 @BharteshShah
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions


The Pivot to GOK securities tapered the NPLs ratio by 430 basis points.
Subsidiary contribution is set to accelerate further, in my opinion.
They will probably move very quick once the caps are modified to
liquefy what remains a Key Franchise of the bank.
These are in my view strong results which promise much,
2018 is promising and hence we are very optimistic this year - Dr
Mwangi #EquityFYResults2017

read more


"Let's remove or scrap the regulation," he said. "There's nothing to think about, we all know it's headed in the wrong direction." Dr. James Mwangi
Kenyan Economy


There’s still no agreement yet on how to review the law, causing
anxiety that banks will revert to charging high interest rates once it
goes, said John Gachora, chief executive officer of NIC Group Plc and
vice chairman of the Kenya Bankers’ Association.

“There were reasons why this law got the support it did.” he said.
“Until we address those issues completely and get people comfortable
that those issues will not arise, I don’t think we can really pretend
that a repeal will cure the problem.”

While some banks are pushing for a complete removal of the laws,
others are willing to consider a ceiling higher than the current 400
basis-point limit above the central bank rate, Gachora said. Some have
also proposed charging different rates to certain market segments.

“There’s the extreme of repeal and there’s the other side that’s
saying let’s make some amendments, but nobody seems to agree,” he
said. “I see more of an amendment than a repeal to be frank with you
because the law is both political and emotive.”

Equity Group has 210 billion shillings ($2.1 billion) ready for
lending once the rate caps are removed, the CEO Mwangi said.

read more


Standard Chartered Kenya reports FY 2017 Earnings here +3.846% in 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           216.00
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        74,198,283,336
EPS:             19.64
PE:               10.997

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya FY 2017 results through 31st December
2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Kenya government securities – available for sale 103.486084b vs.
81.708503b +26.653%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 126.294470b vs. 122.711038b +2.920%
FY Total assets 285.724441b vs. 250.482000b +14.070%
FY Customer deposits 213.349290b vs. 186.598226b +14.336%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 45.664537b vs. 44.603828b +2.378%
FY Loans and advances interest income 13.558397b vs. 14.845035b -8.667%
FY Government securities interest income 11.333686b vs. 10.065081b +12.604%
FY Total interest income 26.274325b vs. 25.775145b +1.937%
FY Customer deposits interest expense [6.407540b] vs. [5.684222b] +12.725%
FY Other interest expenses [1.084935b] vs. [561.618m] +93.180%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 18.565973b vs. 19.395495b -4.277%
FY Other fees and commissions non-interest income 4.361261b vs.
4.360874b +0.009%
FY Foreign exchange trading income/ [loss] 2.661343b vs. 2.839996b -6.291%
FY Total non-interest income 8.772220b vs. 8.589594b +2.126%
FY Total operating income 27.338193b vs. 27.985089b -2.312%
FY Loan loss provision [4.185571b] vs. [2.199899b] +90.262%
FY Staff costs [6.724878b] vs. [6.916663b] -2.773%
FY Other operating expenses [4.634457b] vs. [3.862386b] +19.989%
FY Total other operating expenses [17.266900b] vs. [14.696970b] +17.486%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 10.071293b vs. 13.288119b -24.208%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 6.914098b vs. 9.049307b -23.595%
EPS 19.64 vs. 25.85 -24.023%
Dividend per share 17.00 vs. 20.00 -15.000%
Total NPL and advances 11.317708b vs. 10.166807b +11.320%
Liquidity ratio 58.73% vs. 56.93%

Conclusions


Dividend is worth 7.87% on the current price.
They had warned last year. I think they have re-optimised the Balance
sheet and 2018 will prove strong [in part because they will be lapping
a soft 2017]
had to play defence in 2017 evidently.

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NIC Bank reports FY 2017 EPS -4.284% Earnings here +20.00% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           40.50
Total Shares Issued:          639945603.00
Market Capitalization:        25,917,796,922
EPS:             6.48
PE:               6.25

Well established Kenyan commercial bank

NIC Group PLC FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Kenya Government securities – held to maturity 21.577580b vs.
3.491163b +518.063%
FY Kenya Government securities – available for sale 29.917488b vs.
23.795496b +25.728%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 119.760537b vs. 114.466274b +4.625%
FY Total assets 206.172460b vs. 169.458985b +21.665%
FY Customer deposits 138.916570b vs. 111.824685b +24.227%
FY Deposits and balances dur to local banking institutions 11.442430b
vs. 72.764m +15,625.400%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 34.716237b vs. 30.345364b +14.404%
FY Loans and advances interest income 13.145500b vs. 15.150632b -13.235%
FY Total interest income 18.415422b vs. 19.020675b -3.182%
FY Customer deposits expense [5.955774b] vs. [5.368231b] +10.945%
FY Total interest expense [7.641620b] vs. [6.852078b] +11.523%
FY Net interest income 10.773802b vs. 12.168597b -11.462%
FY FX trading income 1.158930b vs. 1.105147b +4.867%
FY Total non-interest income 4.164340b vs. 4.019559b +3.602%
FY Total operating income 14.938142b vs. 16.188156b -7.722%
FY Loan loss provision [2.979273b] vs. [3.749530b] -20.531%
FY Staff costs [3.177296b] vs. [3.222493b] -1.403%
FY Other operating expenses [2.114012b] vs. [2.004646b] +5.456%
FY Total operating expenses [9.337192b] vs. [10.021207b] -6.826%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 5.600950b vs. 6.166949b -9.178%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 4.144418b vs. 4.330396b -4.295%
Basic and diluted EPS 6.48 vs. 6.77 -4.284%
Final dividend 1.00 vs. 1.00 –
Total dividend 1.00 vs. 1.25 -20.000%
Gross NPL and advances 14.320960b vs. 13.587912b +5.395%
Total NPL and advances 13.038800b vs. 12.883832b +1.203%
Liquidity ratio 48.23% vs. 38.74% +9.490%
1:10 Bonus share

NIC Bank FY17 Results via Kestrel
Loans and advances (net) increased by 4.6% y/y to KES 119.8bn.
Customer deposits increased by 24.2% y/y to KES 139.0bn.
Loan loss provisions declined by 20.5% y/y to KES 3.0bn, against our
estimate of KES 3.5bn.
Gross NPLs increased by 5.4% y/y to KES 14.3bn. NPL ratio increased
marginally to 10.7% compared to 10.6% reported in FY16.
As at the last price of KES 39.00, NIC Bank trades at a  P/E of 6.1x
and a P/B of 0.7x. Notably, the ROE currently stands at 11.9%.

Conclusions


They are clearly a Tier 2 Outperformer and 0.7 Price to Book is inexpensive.
The Bonus will underpin the share price.
Its an attractive higher beta prospect
They had to play defence in 2017 and played it effectively.

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BRITAM EA reports FY 2017 EPS -79.635% Earnings here -3.37% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           12.90
Total Shares Issued:          1938415838.00
Market Capitalization:        25,005,564,310
EPS:             0.26
PE:               49.615

Britam Holdings PLC FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs.
31st December 2016
FY Gross earned premiums 23.298311b vs. 20.291844b +14.816%
FY Less reinsurance premium ceded [3.000191b] vs [2.898259b] +3.517%
FY Net earned premiums 20.298120b vs. 17.393585b +16.699%
FY Fund management fees 760.630m vs. 929.234m -18.144%
FY Net [Loss]/ income from investment property [607.261m] vs. 991.129m -161.270%
FY Interest and dividend income 5.053975b vs. 4.232846b +19.399%
FY Net unrealized fair value gains/ [losses] on financial assets
1.413141b vs. [2.444727b] +157.804%
FY Commissions earned 744.492m vs. 718.839m +3.569%
FY Total income 27.836674b vs. 22.360214b +24.492%
FY Insurance claims and loss adjustment expenses [11.024447b] vs.
[8.987829b] +22.660%
FY Amount recoverable from reinsurers 2.385116b vs. 1.201053b +98.585%
FY Change in actuarial value of policyholder benefits [3.859430b] vs.
2.785611b -238.549%
FY Net insurance benefits and claims [12.498761b] vs. [5.001165b] +149.917%
FY Operating and other expenses [7.355818b] vs. [7.094697b] +3.681%
FY Commissions expenses [3.520150b] vs. [3.547258b] -0.764%
FY Total expenses [27.023837b] vs. [18.563362b] +45.576%
FY Profit before tax 865.843m vs. 4.239133b -79.575%
FY Profit for the year 527.474m vs. 2.480204b -78.733%
EPS 0.26 vs. 1.26 -79.365%
Dividend per share 0.35 vs. 0.30 +16.667%
Total equity 22.670010b vs. 17.877596b +26.807%
Financial assets at fair value through profit/ loss 30.611376b vs.
18.397260b +66.391%
Total assets 99.024857b vs. 83.642609b +18.390%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of year 8.423155b vs. 5.967017b +41.162%

Company Commentary


+143% Total comprehensive income 1.9b versus 784.7m
+15% increase in gross earned premium to 23.3b from 20.3b
+24% increase in total income to 27.8b from 22.4b
strong performance of our investments in equities in 2017
FY PBT 865.8m versus 4.2b reported in 2016
Decline attributable to a one-off charge that positively impacted 2016
earnings by 5.2b.
GPV [gross premium valuation] method from NPV [net premium valuation]
- impact of this in 2017 is an increase in net insurance benefits by
150% from 2016
on a constant basis net insurance benefits and claims increased by 23%
largely as a result of a 26% revenue growth in the life business.
Group's asset base has increased by 18% to 99b. from 83.7b in 2016
shareholders funds have increased by 27%
Net Insurance business +17% to 20.3b.
Asset management revenue decreased by 16% to 848.4m versus 1b in 2016
Assets under management +18% to 128.9b
Regional businesses contributed revenue of 2.7b [2016:2.4b] which
accounted for 13% [2016:14%] of the total net insurance business
revenue. these businesses account for 13% of the total income and 8%
of the total assets of the group.
Equities returned fair value gains of 3.4b compared to -3.0b in 2016
Investment income [dividends and interest] +19% to 5.1b.
Income from investment Property has declined by 161% from 991.1m to a
loss of 607.3m
0.35 cents Final Dividend

Conclusions

Stripping out the effect of the change of methodology from NPV to GPV
- It was in fact a strong performance.
The adjustment in Real Estate was interesting.
The NSE rebound was material.

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Kakuzi reports FY 2017 Earnings EPS +5.192% here +9.422% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           360.00
Total Shares Issued:          19600000.00
Market Capitalization:        7,056,000,000
EPS:            30.19
PE:              11.9244

Kakuzi PLC FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Sales 2.823926b vs. 2.651199b +6.515%
FY Gains arising from changes in fair value less costs to sell of
non-current biological assets 82.799m vs. 67.236m +23.147%
FY Cost of sales [1.560515b] vs. [1.421914b] +9.747%
FY Gross profit 1.346210b vs. 1.296521b +3.832%
FY Distribution costs [597.948m] vs. [620.635m] -3.655%
FY Operating profit 754.683m vs. 682.592m +10.561%
FY Interest income 95.820m vs. 76.551m +25.171%
FY Profit before income tax 849.123m vs. 757.779m +12.054%
FY Profit for the year 591.643m vs. 562.425m +5.195%
EPS (Basic and diluted) 30.19 vs. 28.70 +5.192%
Dividend per share 7.00 vs. 6.00 +16.667%
Total Equity 4.322036b vs. 3.846258b +12.370%
Biological assets 663.833m vs. 640.135m +3.702%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 1.648749b vs.
1.430576b +15.251%

Company Commentary

A Pre-Tax profit of 849m versus 758m of last year.
increase in profit is a result of continued market demand for Avocado
and Macadamia throughout the year.
Profitability within the tea operations continued to reflect the
difficult trading conditions and significant inflationary pressure on
labour and other production costs.
Final Dividend of 7/= a share.

Conclusions

They are in a sweet earnings spot in particular because of an early
pivot to Avocados and the c21st Millennial economy.

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@KenyaAirways would benefit from the political "handshake dividend" @FinancialTimes
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Airways continued its financial turnround in 2017 despite a
prolonged political crisis in its domestic market, rising fuel costs
and a costly restructuring, the airline reported on Wednesday.

However Sebastian Mikosz, chief executive, told the Financial Times
that while the finances were improving “we still have a big industrial
turnround to continue”.

Losses before tax were cut to Ks5.97bn ($59.0m) for the nine months to
December 2017 from Ks10.2bn for the 12 months to March 2017, while
operating profit rose to Ks1.3bn from K897m for the same periods.

Kenya Airways reported nine months’ figures because it changed its
financial year to the calendar year, to bring it in line with most
other airlines.

“The last thing I would say is we’re out of trouble,” Mr Mikosz said.
“It will take another two years of growth and cost control before we
can say we’re more optimistic.”

He attributed a 20 per cent fall in domestic traffic last year to
Kenya’s prolonged political crisis. This was triggered by the supreme
court nullifying the August presidential election and ordering a rerun
in October.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga patched up
their differences earlier this month. Mr Mikosz said their handshake
“was well received abroad and we’re a company that operates mainly
abroad”.

Fuel costs rose 22 per cent between June and November, Mr Mikosz said.

Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment adviser, said Kenya
Airways would benefit from the political “handshake dividend” but said
he was still “concerned” about its short-term prospects. “I don’t
think Kenya Airways has been left with financial firepower to take on
the competition and expand where they need to,” he said.

The airline is due to start direct flights to the US in October.

Kenya Airways completed its financial restructuring last November
after debts soared to more than $2bn in the wake of an expansion that
was crippled by a terrorists attack in Nairobi in 2013 and the Ebola
virus outbreak in west Africa the following year.

Pre-tax losses peaked at Ks29.7bn in the 2014-15 financial year.

Following the restructuring, the Kenyan government owns 48.3 per cent
of the airline, a consortium of creditor banks 38.1 per cent and Air
France-KLM 7.8 per cent. Retail shareholders were diluted from 43.4
per cent to 2.8 per cent.

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Hi @KenyaAirways Your 2017 #KQResults not available on your website and those circulated through @NSEKenyahave pages missing @Sang252
Kenyan Economy


Hi @KenyaAirways Your 2017 #KQResults not available on your website
and those circulated through @NSEKenyahave pages missing including the
Statement of Financial Position (Balance Sheet) @wazua

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Kenya's largest companies by Market Cap as of 22 March 2018; @kenyanwalstreet
Kenyan Economy


1. Safaricom Sh 1.23 Trillion
2. EABL Sh 201 Billion
3. Equity Bank Sh 198Bn
4. KCB Sh 153Bn
5. Coop Sh 112Bn
6. Stanchart Sh 73.5Bn
7. BAT Sh 72Bn
8. Barclays Sh 67Bn
9. Bamburi Sh 65Bn
10. KQ Sh 64.5Bn

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.96% 2018

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +3.76% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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