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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 26th of March 2018
 
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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Mombasa before its first sack by the Portuguese in 1505 was described as being " a very fair place, with lofty stone and mortar houses well aligned in streets"
Africa


Fort Jesus and the Portuguese in Mombasa ~ 1593~1729 ~Mombasa before
its first sack by the Portuguese in 1505 was described as being ‘’ a
very fair place, with lofty stone and mortar houses well aligned in
streets’’

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Thank You for a wonderful evening @dralbertosanna
Africa


I am a musicologist and violinist who specialises in early modern Italian music.

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#Facebook in the crosshairs of hedge funds: (via JPM) @Schuldensuehner
Law & Politics


#Facebook in the crosshairs of hedge funds: The “quantity on loan”, a
proxy for propensity to short a particular stock, & the “borrow fee”,
a proxy of cost of shorting a particular stock from Datalend,
increased sharply for Facebook from prev weeks’ low levels. (via JPM)

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26-MAR-2018 :: Sell @Facebook @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Facebook shares have tumbled -13.885% since Friday March 16th, which
equates to a $74.65b slide in its market Cap which clocked $463.03b as
at Friday's close. The price rout is the worst since July 2012, the
year of Facebook’s initial public offering at $38 a share.
Interestingly, Out of the 43 analysts who recommend buying Facebook
shares, not one has downgraded the stock over the crisis. I believe
the share price is headed to at least that $150.00 a share, that the
Man in the Hoodie [A hoodie is a sweatshirt with a hood] Mark
Zuckerberg is hopelessly behind the curve and his decapitation [Odds
are 5-1 within 12 months] is a Shoe-In. I appreciate that worldwide,
there are over 2.13 billion monthly active Facebook users and that is
42x when compared with the 50m Users whose data was scraped by
Aleksandr Kogan's research [Kogan was using a personality quiz in St
Petersburg in the summer of 2014 to pull @facebook data via its API to
measure - the "dark triad": psychopathy, narcissism, machiavellianism]
and availed to Cambridge Analytica. Facebook made almost all its $40.6
billion in revenue last year from advertising. Hitwise says "delete
Facebook" searches are up over 400% since Sunday [@ruskin147]. Steve
Bannon was quoted as saying '@facebook data is for sale all over the
world' The CEO of Cambridge Analytica Andrew Nix [now terminated] has
said the following;

“We just put information into the bloodstream to the internet and then
watch it grow, give it a little push every now and again over time to
watch it take shape. And so this stuff infiltrates the online
community and expands but with no branding – so it’s unattributable,
untraceable.”

"It's no use fighting Elections on the Facts its all about Emotions"

“So the candidate is the puppet?,” the undercover reporter asked.
“Always,” replied Mr Nix.

I was left thinking to myself that You can have all the hardware in
the World and I learnt from President Trump [whose virtuoso
Power-point performance with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was just
surreal and other-worldly] that the US is spending $715b per annum on
hardware but this Kremlin [Make no mistake The mercurial President
Putin was the Zubin Mehta of this extraordinary intervention], Steve
Bannon, Mercer, Kushner, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica intervention
had an outstanding and parabolic ROI[return on Investment]. I wrote in
a piece for the The Star in December 2016, Traditional media has been
disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top From
feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of
destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks
leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and
motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and
noteworthy.  It's all in plain sight now but what will be done? It's a
pivotal moment for Western Democracies and others further afield.  It
is indeed an extraordinary outcome. A 1997 US Army Quarterly concluded
 "One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict
between information masters and information victims." and this has
come to pass. In an extraordinary boomerang, The US' Adversaries have
turned Social Media on its head and used it as a ''Trojan Horse'' via
psychographic profiling and micro-targeting at a mass scale.

The fundamental challenge for Facebook is this. It has represented
itself as an ''Infomediary''  An infomediary works as a personal agent
on behalf of consumers to help them take control over information
gathered about them. The concept of the infomediary was first
suggested by John Hagel III in the book Net Worth. However, Facebook
has been hawking this information as if it were an intermediary. This
is its ''Trust Gap'' That Gap is set to widen further. Facebook is
facing an existentialist crisis.

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The problem with Facebook is not *just* the loss of your privacy and the fact that it can be used as a totalitarian panopticon @fchollet
Law & Politics


The problem with Facebook is not *just* the loss of your privacy and
the fact that it can be used as a totalitarian panopticon. The more
worrying issue, in my opinion, is its use of digital information
consumption as a psychological control vector. Time for a thread
Integrated over many years of exposure, the algorithmic curation of
the information we consume gives the systems in charge considerable
power over our lives, over who we become. By moving our lives to the
digital realm, we become vulnerable to that which rules it -- AI
algorithms
If Facebook gets to decide, over the span of many years, which news
you will see (real or fake), whose political status updates you’ll
see, and who will see yours, then Facebook is in effect in control of
your political beliefs and your worldview
This is not quite news, as Facebook has been known to run since at
least 2013 a series of experiments in which they were able to
successfully control the moods and decisions of unwitting users by
tuning their newsfeeds’ contents, as well as prediction user's future
decisions
A loop in which you observe the current state of your targets and keep
tuning what information you feed them, until you start observing the
opinions and behaviors you wanted to see
The human mind is a static, vulnerable system that will come
increasingly under attack from ever-smarter AI algorithms that will
simultaneously have a complete view of everything we do and believe,
and complete control of the information we consume.
It is the reason why so many of the ads you see online seem
desperately irrelevant. They aren't that sophisticated. Likewise, the
social media bots used by hostile state actors to sway public opinion
have little to no AI in them. They’re all extremely primitive. For
now.
We’re looking at a powerful entity that builds fine-grained
psychological profiles of over two billion humans, that runs
large-scale behavior manipulation experiments, and that aims at
developing the best AI technology the world has ever seen. Personally,
it really scares me

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Another pattern of activity apparently linking the Trump and Leave campaigns, involving Robert Mercer Steve Bannon - then of Breitbart - and @CamAnalytica @observer
Law & Politics


When Zuckerberg did eventually come out to try to explain this, his
crafted statement was another effort to make the exploitation of the
50 million profiles seem like a technical problem, a glitch. His tone
was the default position of T-shirted Silicon Valley plutocrats who
insist that they are on our side, while squirrelling away their
billions. What had happened was not a data breach “but a breach of
trust”, he suggested, a sentiment he repeats in a personal
advertisement in today’s newspapers, including the Observer.

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I think I understand why @facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg hasn't publicly responded to the @CamAnalytica scandal. He's stuck in a catch-22 @BV
Law & Politics


I think I understand why Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark
Zuckerberg hasn't publicly responded to the Cambridge Analytica
scandal. He's stuck in a catch-22. Any fix for Facebook's previous big
problem -- fake news -- would make the current big problem with data
harvesting worse.

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It's Not Just @facebook . The Big Tech Revolt Has Begun, Says @Nomura
Law & Politics


“The bottom line is that trade wars, populism, income inequality can
be looked at in isolation, but together they all point to a reaction
against the growth of fluid intangible-intensive industries such as
the data/platform companies,” he said.

“Today thanks to the increasing concerns that platforms and
data-holders have been ‘gamed’ by corporations and foreign governments
to manipulate consumers and voters, there is a growing backlash from
individuals and governments on how these platforms can operate,”
Hafeez said. “For governments, this could result in greater regulation
on how and where the data/platform companies can operate.”

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17-SEP-2012 "One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims."
Law & Politics


Information warfare will not be couched in rationale of geopolitics,
the author suggests, but will be "spawned" - like any Hollywood drama
- out of raw emotions. "Hatred, jealousy, and greed - emotions, rather
than strategy - will set the terms of [information warfare] struggles"

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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics


However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo,
who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short
stories:
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on
the step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

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A different personality quiz he was using to pull @facebook data via its API in St Petersburg in summer 2014. To measure - gulp - the "dark triad": psychopathy, narcissism, machiavellianism @carolecadwalla
Law & Politics


BREAKING: New details about Aleksandr Kogan's research. A different
personality quiz he was using to pull @facebook data via its API in St
Petersburg in summer 2014.  To measure - gulp - the "dark triad":
psychopathy, narcissism, machiavellianism

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What Trump Can Learn From the Cold War @business
Law & Politics


Donald Trump’s combative new foreign policy team should look at two
precedents as the U.S. president pursues summits with the leaders of
Russia and North Korea, according to former diplomats and historians.
One is now considered an historic success, the other an unmitigated
disaster.

Negotiations between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik
in 1986 helped reverse the nuclear arms race and usher in an end to
superpower confrontation. An earlier encounter in 1961 between John F.
Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna came close to causing World
War III.

No firm dates have been set for the sit-downs with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un and it remains uncertain
that they will take place. Yet should they happen, Trump has already
shown he can go off-piste, and therein lies the risk, according to
David Reynolds, professor of international history at Cambridge
University.

“The two summits are really good examples of how these kinds of
relatively unscripted meetings can go either very well, or very
badly,” said Reynolds, author of “Six Meetings that Shaped the 20th
Century.” Given Trump’s unpredictability “it could be a shouting match
with ‘Rocket Man’, or it could be a breakthrough” on an issue that has
frustrated successive U.S. presidents, he said.

“To me the big lessons of Reykjavik are number one to make no small
plans,” said Adelman. “The idea is to think big when you have an
opportunity like this, and Reagan and Gorbachev really thought big.
The second thing is to figure out how to get from here to there, which
Reagan did,” he said.

Former Russian diplomat Vladimir Frolov predicts that the Trump-Putin
summit would be another Reykjavik in terms of tone. “They will
sweet-talk Trump,” he said. “Putin’s only chance is to manipulate
Trump when they’re talking face-to-face.”

Still, “there’s no reason to expect breakthroughs,” said Frolov.
“Trump won’t be allowed to sell everything in the American supermarket
to Putin in one sale.”

“The important thing in Reykjavik was that both parties wanted to
reach an agreement and had a strong personal relationship, so even
though they failed and went home, Reagan and Gorbachev could then go
back to the same dialog they’d had before the summit,” he said. “In
the case of the Trump-Kim summit, however, there is nothing to return
to. Instead, failure could mean war.”

The risks of a bust-up would appear high if Bolton was chosen to run
the National Security Council ahead of the meeting with Kim. In recent
months Bolton has advocated a pre-emptive strike against North Korea's
nuclear arsenal and a take-over of the North by South Korea. “How do
you know the North Koreans are lying? Because their lips are moving,”
he told Fox News on March 9.

The much younger Kennedy confided afterward that he had allowed
himself to be browbeaten, and that Khrushchev concluded he was weak.
The construction of the Berlin Wall, the Cuban missile crisis and the
Vietnam war followed.

“Vienna was more like a test to see what this guy is about: They
didn’t trust each other and it didn’t work,” said Sokov. “That could
be a good example for what we see with Trump and Kim.”

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Not sure we're recognizing what these #MSDStrong students have done. 800k in Washington DC today alone #MarchForOurLives @markmobility
Law & Politics


Not sure we're recognizing what these #MSDStrong students have done.
800k in Washington DC today alone. The largest anti-Vietnam War
demonstration in '69 drew 500k.  And they organized it in five weeks.
While grieving. #MarchForOurLives

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"Youthquake", defined as "a significant cultural, political, or social change arising from the actions or influence of young people" #MarchForOurLives
Law & Politics


“Youthquake”, defined as “a significant cultural, political, or social
change arising from the actions or influence of young people”, has
been selected by Oxford Dictionaries as the 2017 word of the year.

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28-AUG-2017 :: Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation operations], China has established control over the South China Sea
Law & Politics


Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation
operations], China has established control over the South China Sea.
It has created artificial Islands and then militarised those
artificial islands across the South China Sea. It is a mind-boggling
geopolitical advance any which way you care to cut it.

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Beijing accuses US of 'serious provocation' after destroyer sails through disputed South China Sea SCMP
Law & Politics


China accused America of “serious military provocation” after a US
Navy destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of an artificial island
in the South China Sea – one day after the first move in what could
develop into a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest
economies.
Beijing also announced it was staging a naval drill in the disputed
waters on Friday, but said it was not targeted at any specific
country.
The Chinese defence ministry said the USS Mustin had been “warned off”
by two Chinese frigates.
An anonymous US official told Reuters that the destroyer was carrying
out a “freedom of navigation” operation, passing within 12 nautical
miles of Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, where China has built
an artificial island.
The US Navy destroyer passed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef
in the Spratly Islands, where China has built an artificial island.
Photo: Reuters
It was America’s first such operation since January and came a day
after US President Donald Trump announced it would levy US$60 billion
worth of tariffs on Chinese imports – triggering immediate retaliation
from Beijing.

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U.S. House panel to probe China military footprint in Africa - chairman @Reuters @DevinNunes
Law & Politics


The California Republican told “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria
Bartiromo” that China’s investment in African countries would allow
Beijing to strengthen its grip over world trade.

The Trump administration has stepped up actions to punish China over
what he says is theft of U.S. intellectual property, moving last week
to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese imported good. China
has denied engaging in unfair trade practices and threatened to
retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. companies.

Nunes cited China’s opening last summer of a military base in
Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa and at the entrance of Red Sea, as an
example of how Beijing is jockeying to assert power of trade.

“We believe they are looking at investing in ports and infrastructure
around the world, not just for military capabilities but also to
control those governments,” Nunes said.

Political influence in a country at the entrance of the Red Sea, a
major artery for global shipping, gives Beijing great power over world
trade, Nunes said. “They can effectively cut off world trade if they
want to,” he said.

Investing in infrastructure in Africa also allowed Beijing to pressure
those nations on United Nations votes. “The Chinese loan you billions
of dollars to build a railway or port. What countries in Africa have
found out is that comes with a price,” Nunes said.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2368
Dollar Index 89.41 The dollar fell against all major peers except the yen.
Japan Yen 104.90 The yen slipped back from the strongest in more than
16 months against the dollar.
Swiss Franc 0.9472
Pound 1.4156
Aussie 0.7717
India Rupee 64.89
South Korea Won 1082.63
Brazil Real 3.3105
Egypt Pound 17.6020
South Africa Rand 11.6950

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The 10-year yield has climbed 111 basis points since end-July @business
Emerging Markets


It may reach 7.83 percent by the end of the next quarter, according to
the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Four of 10 fixed-income traders surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the
benchmark 10-year yield to reach a three-year high of 8 percent next
quarter in the absence of measures to stoke appetite. Surging yields
will boost borrowing costs for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
government, and may lead to a repeat of a recent situation when it had
to pare the size of few auctions and scrap others.

Frontier Markets

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Overstretched cities The 100 million city: is 21st century urbanisation out of control? @RockefellerFdn
Africa


In just two generations Lagos grew 100-fold, from under 200,000 people
to nearly 20 million. Today one of the world’s 10 largest cities, it
sprawls across nearly 1,000 sq km. The city’s streets are choked with
traffic, its air is full of fumes, and its main dump covers 40
hectares and receives 10,000 metric tons of waste a day
If Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at
the same rate as now, Lagos could become the world’s largest
metropolis, home to 85 or 100 million people. By 2100, it is projected
to be home to more people than California or Britain today, and to
stretch hundreds of miles – with enormous environmental effects.
Hundreds of far smaller cities across Asia and Africa could also grow
exponentially, say the Canadian demographers Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin
Pope at the Ontario Institute of Technology. They suggest that Niamey,
the barely known capital of Niger – a west African country with the
highest birth rate in the world – could explode from a city of fewer
than one million people today to be the world’s eighth-largest city,
with 46 million people, in 2100. Sleepy Blantyre in southern Malawi
could mushroom to the size of New York City today.
The median age of Nigeria is just 18, and under 20 across all Africa’s
54 countries; the fertility rate of the continent’s 500 million women
is 4.4 births. Elsewhere, half of India’s population is under age 25,
and Latin America’s average age is as high as 29.
Kinshasa, DRC Population in 2015: c 12 million Projected in 2100: c 83 million
Kinshasa had just 20,000 people in 1920. By 1940 it was home to about
450,000 people. Today it has possibly 12 million and is predicted to
be Africa’s second largest city with 75 million people inside 50
years. By western standards it is a dysfunctional, sprawling
megalopolis, ringed by vast shantytowns of informal settlements, their
infrastructure nonexistent or collapsing.
By 2100, about 40% of all humans and nearly half of all children in
the world will be African – one of the fastest and most radical
demographic changes in history. It is bound to be a messy transition,
Lall says. “But I am not worried about the grime and dirt so much.
That comes later. We mix up wanting a city to be productive and be
pretty; I want to make sure people get a good job.”

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"Right now I would rather invest in bitcoin and watch this space rather than buying a plot of land." @AP
Africa


KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — In a sleek new high-rise in Uganda’s capital,
an enthusiastic lecturer described his financial success with the
cryptocurrency bitcoin while his earnings were projected on a screen.

“What I have earned in one-and-a-half years from bitcoin is more than
I earned in 10 years as a teacher,” Richard M. Bagorogo told his
audience. “I am living on bitcoin because getting a job in this
country is not easy.”

Some tech-savvy Africans are embracing bitcoin, the most popular
virtual currency, despite the warnings of a few governments, seeing
the volatility in its value a better risk than the usual hustle amid
the continent’s high unemployment.

Many bitcoin adoptees are professionals aiming to supplement their
salaries, but others are jobless millennials hoping to make a living
by trading the cryptocurrency, which isn’t tied to any bank or
government and, like cash, allows users to spend and receive money
anonymously or mostly so.

In Kampala, Uganda’s capital, and elsewhere a small community turns up
at events where stars like Bagorogo preach what they call “the gospel
of bitcoin.”

On a recent morning Bagorogo explained how he once could not afford to
enroll his children in the international school where he taught. Now,
he said, his lifestyle has changed: a recent holiday in Dubai and more
than enough money to help out his father.

It didn’t always go smoothly, as many in Africa have little idea what
bitcoin is.

“When I tried to bring my cousins on board, they called my father in
the village and said, ‘Your son has gone mad,’” Bagorogo recalled.
“For me, I was fascinated by the mathematics behind blockchain
technology. But the local man is interested in money, not the
mathematics, so I normally sit with them and show them how I get and
withdraw my money. Once they see how easy it is, they also want
bitcoin.”

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rely on blockchain, or the public,
distributed ledgers that track the coins’ ownership. The bitcoin
ledger is powered by “miners,” so-called because they throw
computational power into the system to discover and verify
cryptocurrency units, occasionally receiving — or “mining” — new
bitcoins in return.

Bagorogo encourages people to invest in one of over two dozen global
mining pools. For many who can’t afford to buy and hoard large
amounts, the potential returns, including dividends, can seem
promising.

Such facilities, however, have faced doubts about whether they are
genuine and some countries have warned of money laundering and the
threat to government-backed currencies.

In China, where a substantial amount of the world’s supply of bitcoin
originates, the government ordered a shutdown of all cryptocurrency
mining operations in January. The crackdown, plus hacking attacks
leading to the theft of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of
bitcoin from Japanese transfer Coincheck, contributed to the
volatility of the value of a single unit of bitcoin, which rose to
$19,000 in December but has since fallen below $9,000.

Uganda’s central bank has warned that investing in bitcoin and other
digital currencies “is taking a risk in the financial space where
there is neither investor protection nor regulatory purview.”

Kenya and Nigeria have issued similar concerns, and last year Namibia
officially banned the use of cryptocurrencies for commercial purposes.
But other countries in Africa appear open to the possibilities. Last
year Tunisia announced it would launch a digital currency based on
blockchain technology and South Africa, Africa’s most developed
economy, is researching the technology’s feasibility.

Despite the risks, “it is not wise to dismiss cryptocurrencies at this
stage,” said Stephen Kaboyo, a Ugandan analyst who runs the
Kampala-based financial services firm Alpha Capital Partners. But
those who invest in “a hugely speculative asset” must first understand
the risks, he warned.

In Uganda, where per capita income was less than $700 in 2016, bitcoin
enthusiasts are mostly unfazed by the volatility. At least one
restaurant in Kampala now accepts bitcoin, with owner Jennifer Birungi
saying she had to put it “on the menu” to get more comfortable with
cryptocurrencies.

Birungi is a registered user of the exchange platform BitPesa, which
serves 6,000 customers in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Nigeria. They
can cash out their bitcoin in return for local currency, which can be
sent directly to their mobile phones’ bitcoin wallets or wired to
their bank accounts.

Other enthusiasts cited the relative convenience of bitcoin in
financial transfers.

He concluded: “Right now I would rather invest in bitcoin and watch
this space rather than buying a plot of land.”

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S. Africa Dodges Third Junk Rating as @MoodysInvSvc's Lifts Outlook
Africa


The African nation’s outlook was revised to stable from negative. The
decision will boost sentiment and probably bolster the rand, which
rallied after Ramaphosa took over as leader of the ruling African
National Congress in December and became president last month.

Moody’s maintained the nation’s local- and foreign-currency
assessments at Baa3, the lowest investment-grade level, the ratings
company said in a statement on Friday. The affirmation keeps South
Africa on the same level as that of Indonesia and Romania.

"The recent change in political leadership appears to have halted the
gradual erosion of the strength of South Africa’s institutions,"
Moody’s analysts Zuzana Brixiova and Marie Diron wrote in the
statement.

The rand led gains among the world’s major peers in the week ended
Friday, climbing almost 2 percent against the U.S. dollar on
speculation South Africa would avert a downgrade. The currency has
risen more than 5 percent this year.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -5.21% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.6950

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +8.44% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +27.58% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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DP World Wins 30-Year Concession for Greenfield Port of Banana in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Africa


Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 25 March 2018: DP World has won a 30-year
concession with an option of a further 20-year extension for the
management and development of a greenfield multi-purpose port project
at Banana, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Port of Banana
will be the first deep-sea port in the country along its small
coastline of 37 kilometres, which currently only has the riverine port
of Matadi.

read more


12-MAR-2018 :: The Rapprochement @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


The Follow-through has been consistent and constructive.

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Kenya's GDP performance has been stronger and less volatile than peers, but the sizable fiscal and external deficits threaten economic stability @SPGlobalRatings
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's GDP performance has been stronger and less volatile than
peers, but the sizable fiscal and external deficits threaten economic
stability & coincide with gradual appreciation of real effective
exchange rate. @SPGlobalRatings

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#Kenya benefits from deeper domestic capital markets compared with regional peers. Close to 45% of the general gov't debt stock is denominated in local currency @SPGlobalRatings
Kenyan Economy


#Kenya benefits from deeper domestic capital markets compared with
regional peers. Close to 45% of the general gov't debt stock is
denominated in local currency, with local currency debt market cap
estimated at 25% of GDP at end-December 2017.

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Diamond Trust Bank reports FY 2017 EPS -11.915% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:           218.00
Total Shares Issued:          266321115.00
Market Capitalization:        58,058,003,070
EPS:             23.73
PE:               9.186

Prominent Kenyan commercial bank

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Limited FY 2017 results through 31st December
2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Kenya government securities – held to maturity 84.895740b vs.
74.311860b +14.243%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 196.048155b vs. 186.303191b +5.231%
FY Total assets 363.303400b vs. 328.044501b +10.748%
FY Customer deposits 266.246854b vs. 238.103640b +11.820%
FY Borrowed funds 17.174934b vs. 22.062229b -22.152%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 53.619755b vs. 45.876549b +16.878%
FY Loans and advances interest income 22.651861b vs. 23.917030b -5.290%
FY Government securities interest income 11.744676b vs. 9.598968b +22.354%
FY Total interest income 34.628790b vs. 33.812876b +2.413%
FY Customer deposits expense [13.497804b] vs. [12.942194b] +4.293%
FY Other interest expenses [965.321m] vs. [1.069774b] -9.764%
FY Total interest expenses [14.953712b] vs. [14.427599b] +3.647%
FY Net interest income 19.675078b vs. 19.385277b +1.495%
FY Fees and commissions on loans and advances 1.261206b vs. 1.096734b +14.997%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 1.596970b vs. 1.745734b -8.522%
FY Total non-interest income 5.275409b vs. 5.068737b +4.077%
FY Total operating income 24.950487b vs. 24.454014b +2.030%
FY Loan loss provision [4.300777b] vs. [4.269537b] +0.732%
FY Staff costs [3.976009b] vs. [3.356651b] +18.452%
FY Other operating expenses [4.332713b] vs. [3.880463b] +11.655%
FY Total operating expenses [14.860642b] vs. [13.464806b] +10.367%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 10.089845b vs. 10.989208b -8.184%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 6.925040b vs. 7.728140b -10.392%
EPS 23.73 vs. 26.94 -11.915%
Dividend per share 2.60 vs. 2.60 –
Total NPL and advances 13.050400b vs. 6.052824b +115.608%
Liquidity ratio 49.9% vs. 50.2% -0.300%

Conclusions

DTB is a gilt-edged Franchise. FY results slipped when compared to H1
2017 Earnings.

read more




@SafaricomPLC share price data +18.691% in 2018 [record high]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           31.75
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,272,077,339,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 26.240

read more


@StanChartKE FY 2017 Earnings and share price data +12.5% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           234.00
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        80,381,473,614
EPS:             19.64
PE:                 11.914

read more



banking Key take-aways via #CytonnReport
Kenyan Economy


Equity Group is the only bank that recorded an increase in core EPS,
registering strong growth of 14.0% driven by growth in NFI. All the
other 6 banks recorded a decline in core earnings per share, with the
average decline in core earnings across the banking sector at 1.4%,
owing to the tough operating environment as a result of the interest
rate caps and political uncertainty in the country that affected the
business environment,
Average deposit growth came in at 12.5%. However, despite the average
deposits having grown, the interest expense paid on deposits recorded
a slower growth of 2.8% on average, indicating that banks are growing
deposits but opening less interest earning accounts and possibly
transferring some existing interest earning accounts to transaction
accounts,
Average loan growth has been recorded at 5.7%, however interest income
has decreased by 2.7%, showing the effects of the rate cap,
Investment in government securities has grown by 23.4%, outpacing loan
growth of 5.7%, showing increased lending to the government by banks
as they avoid the risky borrowers,
The average Net Interest Margin in the banking sector currently stands at 8.7%,
Non-funded income has grown by 8.5%, which included a Fee and
Commissions growth of 13.7%. This shows that banks are charging more
fee income to improve their income on loans above the rate cap
maximum.

read more





 
 
N.S.E Today


I wrote about the Rapprochement between President Kenyatta and H.E
Raila Odinga on 12-MAR-2018 in the Star and how it marked an Inflexion
Point in terms of political risk.
The Follow-through has been consistent and constructive and its latest
expression was at the Barclays Kenya Open where the Two met again.
@SPGlobalRatings affirmed its 'B+/B' long- and short-term  foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Kenya. S&P said Kenya's GDP
performance has been stronger and less volatile than peers, but the
sizeable fiscal and external deficits threaten economic stability.
Kenya benefits from deeper domestic capital markets compared with
regional peers. Close to 45% of the general gov't debt stock is
denominated in local currency, with local currency debt market cap
estimated at 25% of GDP at end-December 2017.
The Nairobi All Share which had struck a record high every session
last week and opened this morning +12.25% YTD shaved off -0.73 points
to close at 191.44.
The @NSEKenya market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio
(P/E) of 14.9x  and a dividend yield of 3.4%, slightly below the
historical average of 3.7%  @CytonnInvest
The Nairobi NSE20 closed -16.02 points at 3831.16
Equity Turnover clocked 769.248m



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased -0.79% off a record high to close at 31.50 and traded
4.327m shares.

Nation Media Group rebounded +5.714% to close at 111.00 and traded
24,000 shares.

TPS Serena hotels [which is the only real Proxy for the Tourism
Industry and its recent improvement] rallied +6.349% to close at 33.50
and traded 2,300 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Cytonn issues a weekly report and in that report Cytonn gave us some
Banking Key take-aways.

Equity Group is the only bank that recorded an increase in core EPS,
registering strong growth of 14.0% driven by growth in NFI. All the
other 6 banks recorded a decline in core earnings per share, with the
average decline in core earnings across the banking sector at 1.4%,
Investment in government securities has grown by 23.4%, outpacing loan
growth of 5.7%, showing increased lending to the government by banks
as they avoid the risky borrowers, The average Net Interest Margin in
the banking sector currently stands at 8.7%, Non-funded income has
grown by 8.5%, which included a Fee and Commissions growth of 13.7%.
This shows that banks are charging more fee income to improve their
income on loans above the rate cap maximum.

Diamond Trust Bank reported FY 2017 Earnings where FY EPS declined
-11.915% to clock 23.73 shillings a share, the Dividend was unchanged
at 2.60 a share and Total NPL and advances increased +115.608% to
13.050400b.  DTB is a gilt-edged Franchise. FY results slipped when
compared to H1 2017 Earnings. DTB was lightly traded and corrected
-1.38% to close at 215.00 and traded 5,700 shares. DTB is +11.979% in
2018.  As at the last price of KES 215.00, DTB Bank is now trading at
a P/B of 0.8x, a P/E of 8.8x and an RoE of 14.3%. Buy on Dips.
Equity Group firmed 0.952% to close at a Fresh 36 month high of 53.00
and was trading at session highs of 54.00 +2.86% at the Finale. Equity
Group is +33.33% in 2018 and is the Bull Outlier amongst the Banking
stocks in 2018.

NIC Bank pushed +1.212% higher to close at a fresh 2018 high of 41.75
and traded 721,300 shares. NIC Bank reported FY 2017 Earnings last
week and is +23.703% in 2018 and showing its Tier 2 Peers a clean pair
of heels.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased -0.38% off a 2018 high to close at 261.00 and was well
traded with 856,900 shares worth 223.885m. EABL is +9.66% in 2018 and
has strengthened markedly this month.

KenGen closed unchanged at 9.00 and traded 3.962m shares. Fundamentals
and charts have aligned for a move towards 10.00.

ARM Cement slumped -8.379% to close at a Fresh 12-year low.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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