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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 06th of April 2018

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

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Simulations of trade war in the 21st century (spoiler: outcome is not good) @voxeu #TradeWar @BaldwinRE

By Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga (U of Geneva), Peri da Silva
(Kansas State U)

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Turkey's currency has tumbled to a historic low @fastft

Over the past three decades, the lira has only ever traded weaker than
TRY4 on five trading days — all of which were after March 22, 2018,
according to Reuters data.

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The Waste Land BY T. S. ELIOT

I. The Burial of the Dead

April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.
Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
And went on in sunlight, into the Hofgarten,
And drank coffee, and talked for an hour.
Bin gar keine Russin, stamm’ aus Litauen, echt deutsch.
And when we were children, staying at the arch-duke’s,
My cousin’s, he took me out on a sled,
And I was frightened. He said, Marie,
Marie, hold on tight. And down we went.
In the mountains, there you feel free.
I read, much of the night, and go south in the winter.

 “You gave me hyacinths first a year ago;
“They called me the hyacinth girl.”
—Yet when we came back, late, from the Hyacinth garden,
Your arms full, and your hair wet, I could not
Speak, and my eyes failed, I was neither
Living nor dead, and I knew nothing,
Looking into the heart of light, the silence.
Oed’ und leer das Meer.

Madame Sosostris, famous clairvoyante,
Had a bad cold, nevertheless
Is known to be the wisest woman in Europe,
With a wicked pack of cards. Here, said she,
Is your card, the drowned Phoenician Sailor,
(Those are pearls that were his eyes. Look!)
Here is Belladonna, the Lady of the Rocks,
The lady of situations.
Here is the man with three staves, and here the Wheel,
And here is the one-eyed merchant, and this card,
Which is blank, is something he carries on his back,
Which I am forbidden to see. I do not find
The Hanged Man. Fear death by water.
I see crowds of people, walking round in a ring.
Thank you. If you see dear Mrs. Equitone,
Tell her I bring the horoscope myself:
One must be so careful these days.

I sat upon the shore
Fishing, with the arid plain behind me
Shall I at least set my lands in order?
London Bridge is falling down falling down falling down
Poi s’ascose nel foco che gli affina
Quando fiam uti chelidon—O swallow swallow
Le Prince d’Aquitaine à la tour abolie
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Why then Ile fit you. Hieronymo’s mad againe.
Datta. Dayadhvam. Damyata.
Shantih     shantih     shantih

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Russia's request to play part in Salisbury nerve agent probe like arsonist 'investigating own fire', says UK ambassador @Independent
Law & Politics

She said just ahead of today's meeting that "allowing Russian
scientists into an investigation when they are the most likely
perpetrators of the crime in Salisbury would be like Scotland Yard
inviting in Professor Moriarty, so I don't think that's a tenable way

The Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzya addressed the UK's
accusations against his country: "Couldn't you come up with a better
fake story?"

"We have told our British colleagues that you're playing with fire and
you'll be sorry," Mr Nebenzya said. He pointed to the television
programme Midsomer Murders and read from Alice's Adventures In
Wonderland to mock suggestions of Russian involvement. He also claimed
the UK's main argument about the "unquestionable Russian origin" of
the novichok is "no longer valid" following comments from the Porton
Down laboratory, where UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the
novichok agent came from Russia.

Mr Nebenzya then accused the west at large of "using the method of
[Nazi propagandist Joseph] Goebbels - lies that are repeated a
thousand times become the truth" by trying to manipulate people via
the media. A US representative to the UN Kelly Currie said tersely:
"This is not a tactic that is appropriate for this body".


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Beware of cyber war with Russia: Putin has proven he will retaliate @bv
Law & Politics

"Trying to get this calibration right -- of something that is just
disruptive enough that it throws off the Russian game, but not so
severe that they feel they need to come back heavier -- is what needs
to happen," he said.

The problem is that Putin has won the contest of what military
planners call "escalation dominance" for now. He proved he was willing
to go further in 2016 than the established cyber contest between the
U.S. and Russia. In some ways, Russia already showed it was willing to
go beyond previously established understandings of cyber warfare when
in 2014 hackers made public a recording of a phone call of former U.S.
Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland talking with the U.S.
ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt.

None of this is an excuse for inaction. Russia's troll farms and
hackers should be probed and disrupted. State voting systems should be
hardened before the midterm elections. But cyber warfare is
complicated. There are honest reasons the Trump administration would
want to proceed carefully, so as not to escalate a cyber war with

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Facebook says data on most of its 2 billion users could have been accessed improperly @business
International Trade

Facebook Inc. said data on most of its 2 billion users could have been
accessed improperly, giving fresh evidence of the ways the
social-media giant failed to protect people’s privacy while generating
billions of dollars in revenue from the information.

The company said it removed a feature that let users enter phone
numbers or email addresses into Facebook’s search tool to find other
people. That was being used by malicious actors to scrape public
profile information, it said.

“Given the scale and sophistication of the activity we’ve seen, we
believe most people on Facebook could have had their public profile
scraped in this way,” the company said. “So we have now disabled this

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2228
Dollar Index 90.47
Japan Yen 107.37
Swiss Franc 0.9631
Pound 1.3996
Aussie 0.7668
India Rupee 65.105
South Korea Won 1068.92
Brazil Real 3.3449
Egypt Pound 17.6915
South Africa Rand 12.0478

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#Turkey Lira hits fresh lows as key minister goes missing @Schuldensuehner
Emerging Markets

#Turkey Lira hits fresh lows as key minister goes missing. Weakened as
much as 1.2% against the dollar to 4.0468 after Hurriyet newspaper
reported Simsek may have resigned. Trimmed some of its losses as
Simsek said that he would continue serving the nation “until our last

Frontier Markets

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.@PM_AbiyAhmed makes a promising start @Africa_Conf

Expectations are high that the youthful new Oromo Prime Minister can
be a unifying force. He's even trying to reconcile with Eritrea

The ruling party took a promising step towards greater stability when
it elected Abiy Ahmed, the head of its Oromia wing, as its new
Chairperson and Prime Minister on 27 March.


Is this the required course correction? The Prime Minister is
certainly saying the right things.

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US military grounds aircraft in Djibouti after multiple accidents @cnnbrk

US military halts air operations in Djibouti after multiple accidents
and at the request of officials there. The East African country is a
critical location in the fight against terrorism.

Following those accidents, the Djiboutian government sent the US a
diplomatic notice requesting that all flying operations be halted, the
officials said.

There are about 4,000 US personnel in Djibouti, based at Camp
Lemonnier, and US forces there support military operations against the
terrorist group al Shabaab in neighboring Somalia. The grounding of
aircraft could affect both counterterrorism operations in Somalia and
Yemen, such as drone strikes, and support to Camp Lemonnier the
officials said.

But US officials have recently expressed concern about the growing
influence of China in Djibouti, noting its recent establishment of a
military base there as well as close Chinese economic links with the

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The Indian Ocean, which borders Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, is home to major sea lanes and choke points that are crucial to global trade

The Indian Ocean, which borders Africa, the Middle East, Asia and
Australia, is home to major sea lanes and choke points that are
crucial to global trade. Nearly 40 percent of the world's offshore
petroleum is produced in the Indian Ocean, which also has rich mineral
deposits and fisheries. From Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port[which China
has snaffled up for 99 years], to Gwadar Port in Pakistan's
Baloochistan to Djibouti to the Maldives and surely soon somewhere in
East Africa, China is growing its ''geopolitical'' footprint.

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UK leans to Mnangagwa @africa_conf

Britain may be breaking ranks with donors and creditors over
conditions for restoring Harare's access to finance. The International
Monetary Fund continues to take a firm line, insisting that new loans
be contingent on settling $9.4 billion in arrears and on deep cuts to
government salaries, perks and agricultural subsidies.


I hope that @theresa_may and @BorisJohnson make a decisive move in
this direction.

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#Zimbabwe's total foreign #debt Nick Branson

Zimbabwe's total foreign #debt, when encompassing public and private
obligations, reached $11.5 billion at the end of last year; but it's
domestic debt that's on the rise, hitting $6.9 billion by the end of
2017. All tolled, this amounts to roughly 95% of Zim's GDP. 🇿🇼💸

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China has written off Zimbabwe's debt to the Asian giant's institutions @ZiFMNews

China has written off Zimbabwe’s debt to the Asian giant’s
institutions. The decision was reached after meetings between Chinese
President Xi Jinping and President Mnangagwa in Beijing.

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Zimbabwe Wants Mining Companies to List on Local Exchange

Zimbabwe wants mining companies operating in the country to list the
majority of their shares on the local exchange, stirring uncertainty
among investors as the nation with the world’s biggest platinum
reserves after South Africa tries to bring in money to fix the

“No mining right or title shall be granted or issued to a public
company unless the majority of its shares are listed on a securities
exchange in Zimbabwe,” the government said in the Mines and Minerals
Bill before parliament, received by email Thursday.

Companies that are seeking mining rights and already listed on a
foreign bourse must notify the mines minister, and 85 percent of the
funds from the local listing must be used exclusively to develop the
local right, according to the bill.

“The minister shall be entitled to cancel any mining right or title
once it is proven that any person has falsified information,” the bill
said. Anyone who fails to comply will be “liable to a fine equivalent
to 100 percent of cash raised at the foreign listing or to
imprisonment for a period not exceeding 10 years, or both.”

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ZAMBIA Into the valley of debt @Africa_Conf

Demands for clarity on Zambia's national debt are intensifying, as the
standoff with the International Monetary Fund continues and senior
figures in government fear a Zimbabwe-style economic crisis and
currency crash. They say that, contrary to official figures, the debt
now stands at 100% of GDP. They worry that President Edgar Lungu has
no plans to halt the borrowing spree. Oblivious to the alarm bells
sounded by Zambian officials and politicians, as well as international
financial institutions, he may be steering the country towards a cliff
edge, pundits fear.

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Ghana is considering selling bonds from China to Japan as the country prepares to issue as much as $2.5 billion in foreign-currency debt this year. @business

“We have sukuk, Samurai and Panda bonds in the mix for the $2.5
billion envelope,” Ofori-Atta said. The ministry will visit Japan next
week to explore “the possibility of issuing a Samurai bond as we
continue investigating the other instruments,” he said.

The world’s second-largest cocoa grower has appointed Citigroup Inc.,
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp. and Standard Chartered Plc
as head arrangers to market an upcoming sale of Eurobonds, people
familiar with the matter said last month.

The Eurobond sale will begin at the end of April, Ofori-Atta said on Wednesday.

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03-APR-2018 :: African markets performance in a global context. @TheStarKenya

When you look around the World, You will note that Africa is
outperforming. I expect this to remain an overarching theme in 2018.

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Tanzania's economy grew around 7.1 percent last year, beating the government's own revised forecast, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa said.Reuters

“Latest data ... shows that the country’s gross domestic product grew
7.1 percent in the period between January and December 2017, compared
to a GDP growth of 7.0 percent in 2016,” Majaliwa said in the
parliamentary presentation obtained by Reuters.

The session on Monday was held behind closed doors.

Full-year GDP growth in 2017 was driven by mining and quarrying (17.5
percent), transport and storage (16.6 percent) and construction (14.7
percent) activities, he said.

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Nissan plans to start assembling vehicles in Kenya @business
Kenyan Economy

“We’re prepared to enter Kenya as an SKD assembler,” Dando said by
phone from South Africa’s capital, Pretoria. “We’re keen to move quite
fast. We want to make this happen.”

Investing in an existing plant for completely knocked-down kits, or
CKD, would require as much as $100 million while a new factory would
cost double that amount. Nissan prefers starting with half-finished
vehicles as it builds market share and a skilled workforce, Dando

Nissan executives are considering processing their vehicles at plants
owned by Isuzu East Africa Ltd., Associated Vehicle Assemblers Ltd.,
which belongs to Simba Corp., and Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers, a
venture between the government, Toyota Tsusho Corp. and Al-Futtaim
Group, Dando said.

Once established, the Kenyan facility will feed the Eastern Africa
market, which is currently served by imports of light trucks from
South Africa with other models coming from Japan. In addition to its
plant in South Africa, Nissan has an assembly line in Nigeria.

The decision to begin assembling 1-ton pick-up vehicles is because
Kenya’s new-vehicle market is dominated by light commercial trucks.
One-ton single-cab trucks made up almost 12 percent of all new
purchases in Kenya last year, according to the Kenya Motor Industry

While there’s great potential in the passenger-vehicle category the
segment is inundated with cheaper second-hand imports, Dando said.
Public-transport vehicles in Kenya are colloquially known as Nissan no
matter their make, as the first imports of the privately owned
minibuses in the early 1990s were usually used models from Japan.

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Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (KMRC), to be owned by the state, commercial banks and financial co-operatives. @Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Kenya is to set up a mortgage refinancing company to help to meet the
government’s aim of providing 500,000 houses in five years as well as
make it easier for banks to access long-term finance for home loans,
the Treasury said.

The East African country has an estimated 200,000 annual housing
shortfall, which is expected to rise to 300,000 by 2020. President
Uhuru Kenyatta has said provision of affordable housing is one of his
four key priority areas in his second term.

“Housing finance in Kenya remains below its potential,” the Treasury
said in a document outlining the creation of the Kenya Mortgage
Refinance Company (KMRC), to be owned by the state, commercial banks
and financial co-operatives.

KMRC is expected to be licensed by the central bank in February next
year, with initial debt financing of $160 million from the World Bank
for lending on to financial institutions.

Once it starts operations, the company will raise debt from markets,
including mortgage-backed bonds, to lend to banks and financial
co-operatives using their mortgage loan contracts with customers as

Kenya had just 24,458 mortgage loans valued at $2 billion or 3.15
percent of GDP in 2015, compared with about 30 percent of GDP worth of
outstanding mortgages in South Africa.

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@Barclays_Kenya share price data and FY 2017 Earnings here +34.895% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Barclays PLC                                                       +2.12%
Barclays Africa Group Ltd                                    -0.74%
Barclays Kenya                                                  +32.64%

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@KCBGroup share price data +25.146% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           53.50
Total Shares Issued:          3066056647.00
Market Capitalization:        164,034,030,615
EPS:             6.43
PE:                 8.320

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@KeEquityBank share price data +37.106% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           54.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        201,801,347,590
EPS:             5
PE:                 10.900

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EABL share price data here +7.142% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Diageo PLC                                                          -10.83%

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@SafaricomPLC share price data Fresh All time Highs +22.429% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           32.75
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,312,142,767,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 27.066

Vodafone Group PLC  -16.08%

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@totalkenya share price data +42.55% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Closing Price:           33.50
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        5,863,461,651
EPS:             4.35
PE:                 7.701

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2018

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